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"Pain is the Only Teacher": Jeff Timmer Previews the Midterm Reckoning · Paging America

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_03: Now the 2027 premiums are starting to come out.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_03: The Free Press and Detroit News both had stories yesterday
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_03: about double-digit increases that most people are seeing.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_03: On top of this, I haven't even got my increase yet for next year.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_03: There's only so many kidneys I can sell in the black market to pay for this shit.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: Two.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: Well, one.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: Only sell one.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_03: Right, right.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_03: Don't want
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_03: to get medical
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: advice on how many kidneys you should sell.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: Hey everybody,
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: welcome back to Paging America where we explore the power
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: and profit shaping American healthcare.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: And today we are mostly gonna explore the power and the elections
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: that are shaping American healthcare.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: So we are switching up the format a little bit and we are joining I'm joined
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: a very special guest,
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff Timmer,
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: who's the former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party and spent
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: over 30 years at the highest levels of Republican politics in Michigan
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: and Washington, D.C.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: He's the chief operating officer for the Lincoln Project and co-host of the podcast,
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: A Republic If You Can Keep It,
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: with former Michigan Democratic Party chair, Mark Brewer.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff is our favorite person to talk to about electoral politics
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: and how they may impact health policy on the other end of the election.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: And so we are delighted to have him.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_03: Jeff, welcome.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_03: I'm glad to be here.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_03: It's always, always fun talking with you guys.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_03: And, you know, I think it's going to be more fun even talking to you after Tuesday.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, we'll probably be in the midst of a, you know, a government conversation.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, that's actually...
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_03: Come at me.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_03: Come at me.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_03: Come on.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff, you wrote on Twitter very recently that you were limbering up your gloater.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to be superstitious.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to knock on wood while I say that.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: But you think there's going to be a lot of gloating next week for the pro-democracy side?
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I'm not even a little stitious.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_03: So, yeah, I think it's going to be a repudiation.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_03: Payne is the only teacher for the Republicans,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_03: and this is so different than And it's even so different than 2022.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_03: It was going to be a red wave until the Dobbs decision.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_03: And that counteracted it.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_03: In states like Michigan or Wisconsin,
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_03: Arizona,
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_03: there were Democratic boosts that,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_03: at least with the top of the ticket,
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_03: didn't manifest necessarily down ballot to when you get into the legislatures
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_03: in these states and whatnot.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_03: This is going to be a top-to-bottom mutation,
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_03: kind of like just a picture of the Earth's atmosphere gone for a minute,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_03: all the radiation dose of the sun.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_03: But it only hits Republicans because the pro-democracy
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_03: and Democrats have enough melanin in their skin to reject
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_03: the radiation that's coming.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_03: I'm feeling pale as you say that.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_03: It is going to burn deep.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_03: And it's going to be one of those elections where there are accidental winners,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_03: where Hakeem Jeffries or Chuck Schumer or in state capitals,
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_03: Democrats are going to be calling and saying, hey, I won.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_03: And they're going to go literally, who the fuck are you and what district are you in?
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's so funny.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff, I keep thinking about,
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: I remember in 2008,
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: I was working for Congressman Stupack up in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan,
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: and there was the sheriff's race that was on no one's radar.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: And all of a sudden,
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: this guy who just put his name on the ballot for fun,
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: he was the sheriff all of
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_02: a sudden.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: Did he even want to be the sheriff?
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's what you wonder.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: Some of these people, in name only, you're like, oh shit, what do I do now?
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_03: I've seen that, but well, yeah, you had to bring up 2008.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_03: My companion in 2008 was a bottle of bourbon on my desk starting
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_03: about seven o'clock in the morning because that was one of the years I was running
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_03: the Michigan Republican Party.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_03: Not a great year when you see the train just rushing at you and you're there on
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_03: the tracks, you're tied to them.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_03: And then in October, it got worse.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_03: Jeff, I wonder
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: this year,
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if you're persona non grata in all Republican circles,
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_02: but to the extent that you have contacts or just reading the tea leaves,
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_02: are there a lot of bottles of bourbon already opened up on Republican leaders' desks
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_02: in Michigan and all over?
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_02: But in Michigan in particular,
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_02: they're seeing the train coming or are they drinking something else?
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_03: Now, many of them are drinking something else.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_03: I mean,
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_03: this is one thing that the Trump era has instilled in Republicans is a healthy dose
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_03: of ignore the evidence.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_03: There's an open race for governor that nobody knows about.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_03: A whole lot of shit going on.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_03: But they are still, I mean,
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_03: yesterday,
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_03: the Republican ticket,
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_03: Mike Rogers and Congressman John James,
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_03: who's the gubernatorial nominee, nobody knows that, but he is the nominee.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_03: And they were campaigning throughout Michigan's thumb, places like Bad Axe and Imlay City.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, these are just,
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_03: Rogers is trying,
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_03: Rogers is hoping for a polling miss and playing to juice the edges,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_03: go to the reddest Republican areas in the state and hope for the best and hope
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_03: that there's a polling missing.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_03: John James is just doing something because he has to,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_03: and he probably doesn't have enough money, so he's riding on Rogers' bus.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I mean,
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: they brought RFK Jr.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_02: to the state to attack an entire group of people,
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_02: all Arabs in Michigan, 200,000 strong.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_02: That's not to win over independence, right?
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_02: That's to juice that deep base that's just like,
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_02: please come vote, please come vote, don't abandon us because We abandoned you.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_03: The only reason the Senate race is even close that anybody is talking about
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_03: the Michigan Senate race is because of that bigotry, that racism, that Islamophobia.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_03: And the sad fact of the matter is there's an Yeah.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: Guys, I think we have a clip of...
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: So for context, RFK Jr. came to...
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: He kind of came to your neck of the woods, right, Rob?
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_02: Over near Grand Rapids?
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: And he did a rally.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: And it was just kind of...
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: Let's watch the clip, and then we can give a quick reaction.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: 500 million Arabs in the world.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: Man.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: This, to me,
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: this was,
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: this was, so he,
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: this was reminded me of when he like really overstated like his quacky thoughts
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: about autism.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: But this is, this felt like mask off because this isn't even in the realm of healthcare.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: This was just RFK sent to West Michigan to be a bigot on TV and to see
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: if they could get clicks over it.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought,
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it was just like,
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: it's showing just like how much he's doing the shovel work For
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: the political shovel work for the administration.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, it is.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, we could sit here and count on our fingers using those Arabic number system.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_03: And, you know,
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_03: it doesn't take algebra,
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_03: geometry or trigonometry and also originated by Arabs or it's just I mean,
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_03: it's so ridiculous because there have been Many Arabs who've won the Nobel Prize,
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_03: including the Nobel Peace Prize,
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_03: Nobel Prize for Literature,
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_03: Nobel Prize in Medicine and Physics, it's just ludicrous.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_03: It faces value.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, it's just like, whatever.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_03: But that's the Republican campaign.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_03: That's the extent of it.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_03: They have zero to run on anywhere in the country.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_03: Nothing.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_03: They have no accomplishment.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_03: Everything they have is it's,
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_03: you know, Trump's reverse Midas touch where everything turns to shit.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_03: And then they get out there and have to pretend that it isn't.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_03: They all self-inflicted with the tariffs in the Iran war and they've got nothing.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_03: And so they resort to the most base.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_03: Other campaign that I mean,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_03: I guess we have come far enough that if it was a black or Asian or Latino candidate,
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_03: the kind of naked racism and bigotry that we're seeing,
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_03: it's somehow okay because it's an Arab man of Muslim faith.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'm hopeful that Syed's margin is big enough that it kind of puts this to bed,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: that there's like a lesson,
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: to your point,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: that sort of pain produces a lesson that running
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: a campaign like this hopefully isn't something that is going to be in
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: the playbook again.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: I did like Cole Wozniak's response,
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: who was a spokesperson for El Syed,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: who said, it's rich to have an anti-scientist come to Michigan and lecture a doctor.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: I thought that was pretty fun.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah,
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: So, you guys,
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: speaking of Michigan voters and healthcare,
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: there was,
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: for folks who don't follow Michigan,
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: totally,
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: super closely,
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: the Detroit News has
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: a pretty good polling Despite their editorial page being pretty right-wing,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: they had a poll out in the field.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: And for a plurality of Michigan voters,
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: the ability to pay for health insurance
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: and medical costs has eclipsed other concerns about gas and grocery prices.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: And this is in sort of the last poll right before Election Day.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: The survey of 600 likely Michigan general election voters between October 19th
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: and 22nd found a plurality of voters cited costs of the economy as
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: the most important issues.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: And then it went on just that people are really struggling to pay for their health care.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: And that's cropping up as one of the top concerns and one of the sort of
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: the last best polls in the state.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: I'm wondering how that, I mean, that's just all bad for Rogers, right?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's all bad for Rogers.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_03: It's all bad for the Republicans up and down.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_03: And, you know,
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_03: this clinging to this 1990s talking points that the Republicans are doing,
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_03: Rogers and Republicans across the country,
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_03: you know, this, they want to take away your private health care insurance.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_03: Well, they don't.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_03: But name me one American,
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_03: other than those who sit in the CEO chairs at the state Blue Cross
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_03: and big health insurance companies, who likes their health insurance company?
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_03: Nobody.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_03: Nobody likes their health insurance company.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_03: All they do is fight them.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_03: They get denied claims.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_03: They get denied payments.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_03: Things cost so much.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_03: I remember I was on with you guys in August or September.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_03: Through the end of September,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_03: I have paid $5,000 a month for my premium and out of care deductible costs.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_03: $5,000 freaking dollars a month.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, my God.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_03: You know, right?
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_03: It's like insane.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_03: That's from my family plan.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_03: Blue Cross, Michigan.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_03: That's a bronze plan.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_03: That's not even like the top one.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_03: It's insane what it costs.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_03: And it, yeah, die on that hill, guys.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_03: Before, Mike, before Big Pharma, before, you know, Blue Cross, before the hospitals.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_03: Before Donald Trump.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_03: Tell me how it goes on Tuesday.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's right.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: Rob, you and I have been talking about how healthcare was
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: an important issue this election all along.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: So I feel like you're vindicated.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_01: I feel very vindicated that this came up in the last fall.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: Well, at times we've been like willing it to be true, right?
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like, well, sure, this is the work we do.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_02: This has to be true.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_02: This is the premise of the whole project.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_02: And it's like...
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_02: It's always been affordability, affordability.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_02: And it's like, yeah, but you got to understand tucked into that affordability.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, groceries.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, gas prices and housing.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_02: But like a huge part, just like Jeff said, $5,000 a month for him with the family plan.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_02: A huge part of affordability is.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_02: It is those healthcare premiums which shot up for the vast majority of people, right?
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: It's all the cost sharing deductibles and that which have gone up every year for decades now.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_02: Like every single year goes up and up and up.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_02: And you have Rogers campaigning on,
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: If we just have transparency,
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: if people can see their prices,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_02: like, well, shit, we have transparencies with gaff prices.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_02: Guess what?
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: It still costs a hell of a lot to fill up your tank.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_02: It's not helping people just to see the price, right?
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_03: Right, right.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_03: And now the 2027 premiums are starting to come out.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_03: And the Free Press and Detroit News both had stories yesterday
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_03: about double-digit increases that most people are seeing on top of this.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_03: You know, I haven't even got my increase yet for next year.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_03: There's only so many kidneys I can sell in the black market to pay for this.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: Two.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: Well, one.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Only sell one.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: Right, right.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_02: Sorry.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_02: Don't get medical advice on how many kidneys you should sell.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: One of the things that Abdul did that I thought was
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: a good campaign tactic is he's been going out online
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: and he's been interviewing small business owners about small business owners
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: who provide healthcare to their employees and what a strain that is
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: on their business and sort of reframing, which I've always thought was true.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: The projects I'm involved in offer employees and staff healthcare.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: And it's a huge cost driver,
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: whether it's a nonprofit or a small business,
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: or if you have W-2 employees and you offer them healthcare, it's an enormous burden.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: And as those costs goes up, that just makes it harder and harder to operate.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: And so the fact that he was reframing some of the universal healthcare talk,
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_01: whatever path you would take to get there,
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: as being pro-business,
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: I thought was an incredibly persuasive message out of a Democratic campaign.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_03: You mentioned the Detroit News poll and how it showed health care costs
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_03: and concerns rising as the the plurality issue.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_03: It is the central organ and gas, groceries, health care.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_03: It eclipsed all or, you know, health.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_03: Healthcare eclipsed all those.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_03: There was a poll in September in Michigan that showed that 62% of respondents had
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_03: a favorable attitude to Medicare for All.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_03: That was underreported.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_03: But 62%, that includes a shit ton of Republicans who are ready for a change.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_03: People like myself who...
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_03: You know, had spent decades opposing a bureaucratic, government-run, single-payer health care.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, willing to look at anything other than the status quo.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, the status quo is just not the place you want to be.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_03: And I think,
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_03: I know we're Talking a lot about Michigan to an audience outside,
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_03: but that's polling data that I was very familiar with.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_03: But it's not going to be different in too many other places.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_03: In Michigan, a place that, yes, it's purple.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_03: I imagine that an abundance of the states, that you're going to see those same kinds of numbers.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_03: And healthcare costs being a primary motivator for people's Protest vote.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, that's one thing.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_03: Democrats, everyone's talking about a blue wave.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_03: I still contend this is more of a red undertow.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_03: This is a Trump undertow more than any embrace of suddenly, you know, we love Democrats.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_03: Don't misread the tea leaves that happen on Tuesday.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_03: Big wins.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_03: But don't overplay your hand.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_03: Recognize...
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_03: That there are some serious things that need to be done and people are expecting you
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_03: to do them.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_03: Tackle these costs.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_02: In the States,
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: at least,
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: like we're going to see some trifectas in some places like Wisconsin,
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_02: like Michigan, like Arizona, like Minnesota.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_02: Pennsylvania.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_02: They have to do something.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: They have to pass legislation that makes people's ability to afford healthcare,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_02: that improves that ability,
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_02: whether it's lowering prescription drug costs in Michigan or having an exchange
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_02: or expanding BadgerCare and possibly a public option in somewhere like Wisconsin.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_02: Take those big swings because People,
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_02: yeah, yes, it may be a red undertow and the Democrats will benefit from this.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_02: But if they want to have an opportunity going into 2028 to kind of take the mantle
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_02: with a trifecta in D.C.,
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_02: they're going to have to prove to people that giving them the control actually has
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_02: a meaningful impact on these folks' lives.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_02: Because that's the thing,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_02: so many people,
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_02: the reason the undertow is happening,
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_02: they're just pissed at Trump for making promises and completely going in
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_02: the opposite direction.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and you're right.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_03: The Dems who are going to have trifectas,
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_03: I think,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_03: in Washington and in so many state capitals that they haven't in a long time,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_03: you've got to cut the cost of health care in order to pay
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_03: for all these transgender things that are going to be happening at schools, right?
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, kids are going to go off to schools,
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_03: they're going to come home with different genitalia,
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_03: and somebody's got to pay for it.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_03: So we've got to drive these costs down.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_02: Editorial note, Jeff was kidding.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: You guys,
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: let's let's wander away from Michigan and let's head over to another state
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: that is interesting as it relates to health care,
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: because health care has been front and center.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: And also Kansas Senator Roger Marshall is a He's a bad,
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: evil physician in addition to having to be important for healthcare.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: So his stagger to the finish line has sort of gotten more staggering.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: So bear with me for a second.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to set this up.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: So last week we talked at length about what
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: a truly terrible campaigner Roger Marshall is,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: where sort of once this national spotlight has shown on this deep red sort of lucked
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: into his seat guy, he's like proved himself like a very uncapable campaigner.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: But on November 8th, 2018,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: then Congressman Roger Marshall and his wife bought 1,250 shares
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: in Ionix Life Sciences for $250,000.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: This is according to an Irish company records obtained by Popular Information.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: Ionix is a privately held holding company whose subsidiary,
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: Kansas-based Genzita Pharmaceuticals,
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: is developing experimental cancer drugs Ganzender founder then donated $6,800
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: to Marshall.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: About a week later, Ganzeda announced FDA approval to begin its phase one human trial.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: Marshall disclosed the purchase more than 240 days past the Stocks Act's 45-day deadline.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: By the time he disclosed it, it was worth half a million dollars.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: So Marshall now sits on the Senate Help Committee,
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_01: which oversees the FDA, and has sponsored legislation that could benefit Ganzeda.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: He is also, among others, if Cassidy leaves, could lead help, which is like a crazy scenario.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, this is like all just like coming out as he faces the fight of his life in Kansas.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm wondering what you guys make of,
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm wondering what you make of either this sort of like emerging late in
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: the campaign scandal or just his campaign overall.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: What do you guys think?
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_02: You wonder what all these folks in deep red places who luck into seats,
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_02: what the hell they are all up to because no one's shining a light on it, right?
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_02: Is anyone really digging into the senator,
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_02: you know, now that places like North Dakota, places like Montana...
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_02: Well, maybe not Montana, but say North Dakota or in the Deep South, they're deeply red.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_02: What the hell are these people doing that it now resurfaces six, seven, eight years later?
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_02: Probably a whole lot of this, and it's particularly gross that this guy is a doctor.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_02: He sued his patients into debt,
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_02: sued them to the point where they went to jail while he was making three quarters
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_02: a million dollars.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_02: And then also now it seems like he was benefiting from suspiciously good timing on
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_02: a bet on a company in his own state that donated to his campaign.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know, Jeff, does this sound okay to you?
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_03: No, I mean, Marshall, first of all, let's put this in proof.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_03: Kansas, the last time Kansas had a Democratic senator, there were dinosaurs on the planet.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, it's been almost 100 years since Kansas had a Democratic senator.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_03: That's how bad this environment is.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_03: And that's how bad Roger Marshall is.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_03: So he's got Trump.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_03: Strike one.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_03: He's defending this healthcare system that has just, you know, bankrupted this country.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_03: Strike two.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_03: And he's got massive public corruption, the kind of...
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_03: This for me, but not for thee.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_03: I'm the insider.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_03: We benefit this corruption that we see just distilled into its purest form in
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_03: the White House, massive scale like no country has ever seen.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_03: But the kind of everyday quaint corruption that goes on with the stock trading
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_03: by members of Congress and the Senate,
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_03: they're privy to inside information and they profit from it.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_03: Everyone says,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_03: how can you How can you make $175,000 a year,
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_03: but while you're serving in your 10 years, you suddenly become a multimillionaire?
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_03: Well, this is how.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_03: Roger Marshall's doing it.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_03: It's like the Willy Wonka ticket for people like Roger Marshall who ascend
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_03: into what they consider a safe red seat.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_03: No one's going to challenge them from their party.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_03: They just get to coast and cash in.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: One more other sort of fun detail about Roger Marshall in Kansas.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_01: So in his hometown of Great Bend, the support for his reelection is really tepid.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: It may be in part because he helped drive an existing hospital out of business
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: when he and his partners opened up a competing facility.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_01: The mayor, Alan Motor, told the Kansas City Star, the town was split when that happened.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you that.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_01: He helped build a new hospital, but in the process, the other hospital went bankrupt.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: But right now what the mayor is saying is,
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: look, it's quite obvious he doesn't live here anymore.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: He lives in Florida.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: He has a little hunting lodge south of Great Bend in Stafford County.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's an issue for people from what I hear.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: He's become disconnected with a lot of people around here.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: So he's getting tattled on by the mayor of his hometown.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: The guy lives in Florida.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_01: His tan is impeccable.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: He does.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: He's got that orange kind of glow.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, like he's cosplaying Trump.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: He's got this natural tan.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: It's really something.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_01: I think you can tell he lives in Florida.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_02: He doesn't look like Kansas, right?
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_03: It's like MTV should come back and do a reboot of Real World where they just get all
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_03: the Republicans who live in Florida,
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_03: like Mike Rogers and Tommy Tuberville and Roger Marshall.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_03: They all live in some house in Florida and run in other states and do a show about it.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_02: And Sean Duffy could probably be a part of it because that's the experience
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_02: that got him into the position he's in, right?
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_02: So, so many.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_03: He could be the host.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_02: It's now the revolving door of reality TV, right?
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_02: That's how they start, they get to DC, and then they go back to it.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, you guys,
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: let's move from Kansas to another sort of deep red state where a doctor is running.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: I can't wait for your take on this because I find the fact
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: that South Carolina is even close to be absolutely shocking.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: So South Carolina state,
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: Lindsey Graham won by more than 10 points in 2020,
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: and that Trump won by almost 18, which is just like a big, big gap.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: A recent New York Times Siena poll has Lindsey Graham's sister Darlene tied at 48%
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: with pediatrician And friend of the pod, Dr. Annie Andrews.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: Another poll released this week by
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: the South Carolina Policy Council has Graham ahead of Andrews by just one point.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: Nate Silver's predictive model has Graham leading by just 1.5.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: So this thing seems like it's really a race.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: And the fact that it is is just shocking.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: What do we know about the South Carolina?
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_01: Do we believe it's competitive?
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think, Jeff?
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_03: Well, South Carolina elected the kind of Democrats
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_03: that wore pointy hoods like Strom Thurmond for a long time.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_03: But those guys,
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_03: if you recall,
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_03: just like Strom Thurmond,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_03: You know,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_03: that was part of the 1968 Roger Ailes,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_03: Richard Nixon Southern Strategy back then where the Republicans made
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_03: a corrupt bargain with the Democrats.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_03: Democratic racists in the South to extend Jim Crow.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_03: Anyway, South Carolina, yes, I will ultimately be surprised.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_03: I would love to see Annie Andrews when she's a great candidate.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_03: Darlene Graham Ray.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_03: Represents the absolute worst of what Donald Trump has made the Republican Party.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_03: The proudly, demonstrably ignorant, I am ignorant, hear me roar.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_03: I will not be convinced by facts or truth or anything.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_03: And I'm proud of that.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_03: So you've got this awful environment and an awful candidate against a fair...
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_03: Very, very good candidate who is,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_03: I think,
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_03: running a smart campaign, just relentlessly going after Trump and Darlene Graham.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_03: And pro-chip, don't let up.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_03: Don't let up until every single person has voted.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_03: Don't end on a positive note, Annie.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_03: Kick her in the teeth.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: Kick her hard.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_03: You're a doctor.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_03: You can get her fixed afterward.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_03: But so, yeah, I do think the fact that I mean, Trump is going there today.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_03: He's been there several times closing in a place.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_03: And it's not just a head fake either.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_03: Like they're trying to fill his calendar with, you know, playing to hometown crowds.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_03: The spending all of a sudden.
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_03: They're trying to find money and back it up and,
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_03: dump trucks full of money into these places like Mississippi and Kansas
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_03: and South Carolina.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_03: And, you know,
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_03: it's not going to surprise me when I mention states that,
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_03: you know,
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_03: just a month ago would have been just not even on anybody's radar screen.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_03: They would have been laughing.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_03: South Carolina.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, right.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_03: You know, you're not, you know, you're not even going to win Texas.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_03: Okay.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_03: It's where does the bleeding stop?
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_03: And that's where the Republicans are now.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_03: And so Annie Andrews,
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_03: you could have Roger Marshall leaving the Senate, which I think is very probable.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_03: Adam Hamilton has run just a tremendous campaign.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_03: He's, you know, Authentic.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_03: He's not a generic.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_03: He's a very authentic guy who's built a connection.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_03: Annie Andrews.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_03: You're going to have Roger Marshall out of the Senate and,
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_03: you know, a hell of a lot better doctor.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_03: Doctor who seems And I think the American people should be very hopeful
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_03: that something like this is going to happen.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, they just gave up that Senate seat because Roy Cooper is so far ahead.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think the one,
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: just on the last,
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_01: since you brought up Mississippi,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: the thing that Mississippi has famously not expanded Medicaid,
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: unlike, you know, Almost all states in the North.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: Also, Wisconsin is not.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think hopefully after the election, Medicaid will get expanded right away.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: But I wonder if a political jolt in Mississippi,
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: whether Scott Cologne wins or whether it's just a lot too close for comfort,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: you probably have some people who didn't think they were going to lose,
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: get washed out of the state legislature.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: I do wonder if there'll be an opportunity to revisit Medicaid expansion
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: in Mississippi, which would be really, really good for that state.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_02: It's really underinsured in incredible proportions.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, before we wrap up, do you have any final thoughts before Election Day?
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we can go to you, Rob, and then we can finish up with you, Jeff.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_01: Any sort of hopes and dreams or final aspirations before E-Day?
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_02: Listen, and maybe not as in exciting fashion as all the things we've talked about,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_02: I'm really excited about the state legislatures out there that have
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_02: a real opportunity to flip to dem trifectas.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_02: Listen, we're fighting for universal health care.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_02: Honestly, I don't care which part.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_02: The Democratic Party does that.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_02: But right now, and probably forevermore, the Democrats are the ones who are doing it.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm excited.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_02: I'm excited for Wisconsin.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_02: I'm excited for Pennsylvania.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_02: Excited for here in Michigan.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_02: Like, the possibilities that become true.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_02: And I think the mandate But man, those state legislatures, those governors' races, huge.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_03: See,
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_03: I'm much more – I don't think there's going to be anything that – nothing's going
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_03: to happen Tuesday that will really surprise me.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_03: I don't think.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_03: Because I don't know how far down it's going to go.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_03: But, I mean, I am – I'm not going to be a magnanimous winner.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_03: I want – Amen.
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_03: I want to see Mike Rogers lose – More even than I've really come to want to see Abdul win.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_03: I'm not just voting for him, I'm enthusiastically voting for him.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_03: And I'm saying that as a lifelong Republican who ran the Republican Party in Michigan.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_03: It feels very strange to say that, but I want to see Mike Rogers lose.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_03: I want to see Rob Davidson's old friend, Bill Huizenga, lose.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_03: That will make me very happy.
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_01: The early vote numbers look awesome.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's going down.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_03: And like I say, I've got my gloater limbered up.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_03: It's been about four years since I've been able to use it fully.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_03: There's been a few special elections in last year.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_03: We're in Virginia, New Jersey.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_03: I gloated a little bit, but it's not as fun as gloating in an even-numbered November.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_03: So I'm ready to go.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_03: I just hope I don't pull a gloater because it's really painful when that happens.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_03: And it takes a long, long recovery.
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_02: Give me a call, Jeff.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_02: Give me a call.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_03: We'll set you up if your gloater gets pulled.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: We know some doctors.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we know
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_03: some folks.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_03: I understand that the surgery isn't as invasive any longer, which is really nice.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_02: Minimally invasive bloater repair is very easy.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's a great place to end it.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_01: For everyone here, today's episode is written by Chris Savage, Dr.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: Rob Davidson, Abibaz, Baker,
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_01: Paging America,
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: The Situation Womb,
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_01: and all of our on-call segments this week were produced by Peter Ogburn
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: and Chris Savage.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_01: All shows were edited by Peter Ogburn and April Stewie.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: Our music is by Annette Somerset at Duneflower Productions.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: And if you enjoyed today's show, please subscribe and leave us a rating on YouTube.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: Listeners and Dr.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_01: Rob and Jeff, we'll see you on the other side of Election Day.