Latest / The Fourcast / Ukraine war: will Donald Trump make a deal with Vladimir Putin?

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Ukraine war: will Donald Trump make a deal with Vladimir Putin? · The Fourcast

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Welcome to the forecast. Now, there are so many things
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that President Donald Trump said in the course of his
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inauguration that stand out. But one that really stood out
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for me that I want to discuss now is when he talked about
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expanding American territory. Now, what did he mean by that?
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Was he talking about a kind of 19th century style land grab?
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Was he talking about more American foreign policy muscle?
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What's going on here? Because a lot of people around
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the world, you know, world leaders, strong men and not so
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strong men and women are scratching their heads thinking
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what is America under Donald Trump, the sequel going to be up
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to? So this matters to all of us.
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No one better to discuss this with than Nina Korsheva,
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Professor Nina Korsheva, she's not only the great granddaughter
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of Khrushchev, the former Soviet leader, but also she is a
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professor of international relations at the New School in
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New York City. And of course, our very own
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international editor, Lindsay Hilson.
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Welcome to you both. Nina, let me start off with you.
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When America now calls or Donald Trump calls for expanding
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America, expanding American territory, what do you think
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he's actually talking about? I I'm not sure that they really
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meant it in terms of this traditional land, land
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purchasing taking over. But we also noticed that Trump
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did not discard potential for armed conflict or armed taking
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over. I actually not excluding
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anything with Trump right now, if he thinks it's convenient,
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they will go with force. Although I would imagine that
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his personal belief is that America can buy anything.
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I mean, that golden age of America with gold is coming up
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and that's what I think we should expect more.
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And also, it's worth pointing out that his power seems to be
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pretty unfettered in the US at the moment.
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And certainly, that's the way he thinks of it because, you know,
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the Supreme Court is in his corner.
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He's got a majority on Capitol Hill, and he thinks that he was
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elected with a landslide, even if that wasn't the case.
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So that's his mindset. Lindsay, same question to you.
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When he talked about expanding America in his speech, what do
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you think he meant? He meant that he has a concept
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of America. It's like this sort of
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buccaneering 19th century imperial power.
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And it's a very masculine thing. It's like, here we are.
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I mean, you look at Xi Jinping over there and you look at
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Vladimir Putin over there. Well, you've got Donald Trump
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here. And I also can increase the
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territory over which I rule. And so I think if you look at
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the map, you see, yes, what is what he talked about grabbing.
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He's talked about Canada. Well, the Canadians aren't too
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happy about that. He's talked about the Panama
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Canal, the Panamanians aren't too happy about that.
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He's talked about Greenland. Well, the Greenlanders and the
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Danes, who are actually control and you know, Greenland is part
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of Denmark now, aren't too happy about that.
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But then if you color in the map, it's a sphere of influence,
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and it's a sphere of influence really, which which America had
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until really the last century. I mean, remember, in the 20th
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century, you know, the Americans were always fomenting coups all
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over Latin America. And now China is increasingly
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important in Latin America. It doesn't control the Panama
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Canal, as he said, but it does have a port at either end.
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And it has built a deep seaport off the coast of Peru as well.
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And it does buy most of the soybeans from Brazil and
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Argentina. So it is important.
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You see a lot more Chinese than you used to in Latin America.
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So I think that he's carving out this sphere of influence.
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But the issue is if he says that it's OK to grab Panama, for
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example, then why is it not OK for Vladimir Putin to grab
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Ukraine or after Ukraine, maybe the Baltic space and for Xi
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Jinping to grab Taiwan? And already we see, you know,
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there's massive increase in the Chinese Navy and all of these
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exercises and manoeuvres around the South China Sea.
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I think that he's comparing himself to them and trying to
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say anything you can do, I can do bigger and better.
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Remember when Putin was talking about spheres of influence at
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the beginning of Ukraine invasion, the American president
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then Joe Biden said, well, you know, we don't deal in spheres
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of influence, which is of course ridiculous because America is
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the sphere of influence around the world.
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So Putin actually considered it very hypocritical.
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But now he finally, in fact, Russian spokesperson,
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spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, well,
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finally America changed its set of values like EP.
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So that's all wonderful because we're all going to be strong men
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together. I don't think you forgot.
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I mean, Trump is not as stupid as we often or people often
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portray him. He he's quite a smart man, a
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very intuitive man for sure. But also the if we talk about
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the gunfighter nation, sort of this frontier mentality, it's
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the Mexico we're dealing with because that's what John Wayne,
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not the Trump. Maybe now he caught up with with
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the with the westerns, because all American presidents
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ultimately is performing one Western or or another, even if
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they don't don't think it's their favorite, favorite genre
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in the movies. But that's the Mexico part,
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because that's what he is. He thinks that that's his his
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electors were most interested in because they are the ones who
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Joe who watched John Wayne, They are the ones who who deal with
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the Rio Grande and all these other things.
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And that's why that's another part that I thought was
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fascinating, because suddenly thing that we we believe is just
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decoration of American frontier mentality.
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The Western movie is almost becoming reality again.
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And I think that's why the Panama Canal, the Latin America,
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and of course, the Gulf of Mexico is an American Gulf.
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I mean forget Mexico is almost not on the map anymore.
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Lindsay I mean, when you look at spheres of influence, you could
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argue, if you were slightly cynical, that actually what
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Trump is really trying to do here is just formalize a
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relationship. You know, this has been kind of,
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you know, they're off and on for the last century or so.
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And it's, it's really based on kind of geographical spheres of
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influence. But then you talk to the South
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Koreans and the Japanese on the other side of the Pacific Ocean
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to California, and they say, hang on a minute.
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Geography doesn't make, you know, doesn't make any sense for
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us. We want to be, you know,
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protected by America. They're protecting our values
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and our democracy. We and we're in the wrong
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neighbourhood. So how does that work?
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Well, you remember Joe Biden, I was about to say poor old Joe
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Biden, which tells you something, doesn't it?
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But, you know, he had this idea of an association of democracies
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and that that would be the connection across the world.
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And that's why, you know, countries like South Korea and
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Japan, which of course have had American protection, you know,
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since the that's the same World War and then since the Korean
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War would have. And, and that was the kind of
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world he envisaged. And I don't think that Trump
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envisages that in any way. He really doesn't care what kind
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of system of government anybody has.
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And I think that the severe influence around the Americas is
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very different in his mind from in Joe Biden's mind, for
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example. I mean, who is, you know, who
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was there at the inauguration, Milay of Argentina?
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Milay, who is, you know, he's a revolutionary, but he's not Che
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Guevara in the beret. He's a right wing revolutionary
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like Trump, like Bolsonaro, one of those who who believes in,
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you know, in his own personal power.
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And I think that the other thing she's really important, just how
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autocratic Trump comes across now to some of that is
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performative. You know, you sit there and you
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sign all these executive orders, 200 of them in one day.
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And and then you throw the Sharpie into the crowd, then
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he's performing the autocrat. That is.
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That's for a reason. That's because that's the kind
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of government he likes. He doesn't like dealing with
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Congress. He doesn't like dealing with all
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the messy, difficult backwards. For all of this guy who thinks
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he's such a great deal maker, that deal making that you have
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to do in the American system between the different branches
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of government, he doesn't like that one little bit.
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He's performing an autocrat and we all should just really grab
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on our Orwells and our Huxley's and see where it leads.
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The performing of it once it actually because the one of the
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greatest achievement of Trump is that he solidified this mixture
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of reality and reality TV, this mixture of meta universes and
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real universes. We almost don't know where we
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are right now. And so performing an autocrat
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can easily turn into non performing, but actually being
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an autocrat. And if we look at those decrees
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that he has signed, this is a very terrifying decrees.
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I mean, I come from a dictatorial country most of the
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time, Soviet Union and and then Russia.
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And you know, they all begin with saying, well, we're just
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going to suggest that they're strong hands so people would
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behave and ultimately it's a strong hand and people behave
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because otherwise you're going to be in prison.
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And that's already, I mean, the whole federal government is the
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whole, most of the federal government is threatened because
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if they support the diversity policy, they're going to be
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investigated and others should be squealing on them if they
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find out. I mean, that's, that's sort of
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I, I know it from my homeland. I'm like, oh, I'm just at home
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right now. My hope is that because Trump is
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still more performative, at least for now, than actionable,
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it may not get there, but you know his if his advisors are
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going to be Orban Putin, CZ Ping Erdogan of Turkey, we we will
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get there because this is going to be an interesting club, club
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for them to form. Just to be clear, Nina, because
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you know Russia so well, and of course, you know, you grew up in
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the Soviet Union and you know you have family connections to
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that, to that history, do you see America, a country that
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still prides itself on being the greatest democracy in the world,
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backsliding into dictatorship? Well, I cannot see it because I
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cannot imagine it. I mean, but but precedents have
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happened and I'm and I'm and I actually even first the first
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time of Trump when people couldn't believe that he could
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be president. I have to, you know, almost
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brag. I don't brag.
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That's not a bragging, but I thought that the given this kind
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of even performative reality TV, Hollywood, nature, media nature
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of the American culture, it's entirely possible because we
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keep looking at American presidents often from the TV
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lens. Remember when John Kennedy
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became president and they had the first debate, Richard Nixon,
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which was on on the radio, he won the debate.
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But on TV when you have the Kennedy smile, this great kind
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of this Hollywood brilliantly looking man, he was the one who
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was winner of of the debate, Ronald Reagan.
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He was by the way, talking about Gunfighter Nation, the the B
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movies, the sort of this cowboy movies.
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So it is very big part of what America chooses is how how they
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look. Nina, I just want to talk
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specifically about Vladimir Putin.
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So, you know, I'm not sure. I don't know, I can't figure out
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what the relationship is between Putin and Trump.
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And Trump himself has been sending some mixed messages
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here. You know, on one hand he says I,
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you know, I get on great with a guy.
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But mind you, George Bush also once said, I I've seen into the
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soul of Vladimir Putin and, and I'm not that worried.
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But on the other hand, there's Trump just yesterday saying,
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well, you know, if they don't come up with a deal with Ukraine
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sometime soon, there'll be taxes, tariffs and and
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repercussions. So what is What's Trump actually
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telling Putin, and what does Putin make of it?
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In terms of Putin, well, Trump is a mixed messaging guy.
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He is. He's in one sentence.
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He can say totally contradictory things and like I would always
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So one part of the mouse is one thing and then you end with
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another one. So I think I mean, he admires
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strong hand leaders. It's not just Putin he admires
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and it's Erdogan. It's easy ping and even Kim Jong
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Un. He said, well, you know, we got
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along famously. And what no, these are the guys
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that he understands. They don't need to meddle.
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So these are his people. And Putin does have a steely
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gaze. I mean, you really cannot read
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behind that. And Trump may, it does make
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Trump nervous because Trump wants to think that he's the
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greatest dog in the universe. And so suddenly Putin is just
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silent and Trump is giving him and Putin is receiving and not
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receiving. So they have that.
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It doesn't really matter what kind of governments elsewhere.
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It's just if we're not interfering with each other.
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So that's important to him. But he also listens to what
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people say to him and they, well, you cannot really look
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weak in front of Putin. So when you say you want a deal,
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you also have to scare him that the deal is not is not going to
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happen. And actually after yesterday's
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yesterday's declarations that otherwise if they don't agree
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otherwise we are going to sanction and tariff and whatnot.
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And so the Russians actually, I was actually on the phone this
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morning with with colleagues there who have access to through
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the high ups. And it's like, well, they're
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scratching their heads like what, What does he mean?
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Because we've got no offers. So we haven't even resented any
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rejected anything. So what the hell are we we're
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discussing here? And so they understand it's a
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rhetorical flourishes. We also know that when on
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Monday, when Trump, when Putin congratulated Trump, remember,
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which was very rare. It's an unfriendly country the
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way it's called in Russia. So they congratulated, they
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actually moved the Security Council from Wednesday, which
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was yesterday to Monday. So they would be a formula that
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Security Council agreed, the Russian Security Council that
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we're that Putin is going to congratulate.
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So Russia makes certain steps, but Trump is he goes with the PR
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formula that works for him today.
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So they will be some sort of negotiations.
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But I think the Russians hope that will work out.
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But I also know that it's a hope against against the against
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their experience because they hope and then it it doesn't
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work. So I think for Putin's stance,
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it would be great if it works out, but if not, they're going
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to continue. And it would be more opportunity
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for him to turn into, if it doesn't work to turn into World
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War 2 that every Russian like, as was every Soviet in 1941, the
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war with Nazis, go to the front and fight until death.
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Because Putin is not going to be defeated, whatever it is.
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He may not win, but he's not going to be defeated.
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And so that's that's the mindset in mindset in Russia with hope
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that it will work out with Trump.
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Nonetheless, I mean, I want to talk about Ukraine in a minute,
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Lindsay. But first of all, this idea that
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you've got, you know, 1 emerging autocrat in one of the world's
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superpowers. You've got another autocrat
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running, you know, a former superpower.
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You've got another autocrat running, you know, the next
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superpower, China. You know all these autocrats,
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you know all these strong men trying to carve up the world.
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Does that not end in tears at some stage when you look back at
15:16
history? It does and it ends up with
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Europe being crushed as we've, you know, seen before because in
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a month if we look at these blocks and then what about
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Europe? And Europe is, you know, is
15:30
extremely, you know, with the exception of Hungary, we're very
15:35
wedded to our democratic ways and we're very divided.
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You know, we're not a place which is going to have one big
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strong map. It's a complex system, you know,
15:45
European Union and through NATO and so on, and people working
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together and things take time and people don't make gestures
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in the same world. They make them at home, but they
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can't make them for the whole continents and so on.
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Because we've seen enough of that, right?
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You know, we have World War Two, World War One, we.
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Bought the T-shirt, haven't we Lindsay?
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Been there, done that. Exactly, you know, right back
16:06
to, you know, Prussia and goodness knows what.
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So that I think is the is one of the things which European
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countries are looking at with with great, great anxiety.
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Nina, I mean the other, let's talk about Ukraine here because
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again, what I don't really understand at the moment, and
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maybe you can help me as where do you think this Ukraine war
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ends this year and how does it end?
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Because I know that I'm sure that, you know, Zelensky wants
16:34
to end it on some terms because he's running out of men.
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I'm sure that Putin wants to end it on his terms at some stage.
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I'm sure that America wants to stop funding something that
16:45
could go on forever. Is there a kind of landing strip
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where they can all meet and everyone can talk to their own
16:52
crowd and say, look, we've achieved something here that
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many people thought was impossible?
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It isn't. It isn't, I think because Putin
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can say we've achieved something.
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We had certain conditions. We got in fact even more than we
17:12
hoped for. Because when once again in
17:14
American media, I think it's a mistake to say well, and Joe
17:17
Biden says well, Putin got didn't get what he wanted.
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He didn't, He didn't occupy Ukraine.
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Putin never planned to occupy Ukraine.
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Putin wanted that sphere of influence.
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The world doesn't think that Putin or Russia and America on
17:29
the same level Putin thinks it should be.
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And that's how he acts. So he would say we got more
17:35
territory that we hoped for, We exhausted Ukrainian army, We
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showed the West that Russia cannot be defeated.
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So we're OK, we're not giving anything else, but we can stop
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if you are cooperate. I think for Vladimir Zelensky
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it's much more complicated because Vladimir Zelensky
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already a few days ago he said, well, we may agree if we are
17:58
agreeing on 24th of February 22. So if that territory goes back
18:03
to Ukraine, Putin is not going to agree with that.
18:05
So Zelensky keeps giving some territory, but not all.
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Will he be willing to say, OK, I just want to stop the fighting
18:12
because we have no people, because then his people will ask
18:16
him what was that about for the last three years?
18:19
It's also embarrassing for Europe.
18:21
So if they agree that they're all going to be allowed to save
18:25
face one way or another, and I'm not sure that they will, then we
18:29
can get to some sort of resolution the.
18:31
Issue everybody has talked about is, you know, is the old formula
18:35
of land, the peace that Ukrainians would have to agree
18:40
that Russia temporarily occupy some of their land and in return
18:44
they would get security guarantees.
18:45
And I think that that is where you have the problem with with
18:49
Donald Trump because security guarantees to stop the Russians
18:54
coming back for more in one, 2-3 or four years time, maybe when
18:59
Donald Trump is no longer in office.
19:01
You know, that is a complicated thing, which Putin is going to
19:04
fight to the to the last bit. But Trump will probably have
19:08
lost interest by them because what he's interested in is a
19:10
lack of fighting. He's not interested in peace,
19:13
which is a different thing. So with this, and similarly in
19:16
Gaza, what he wants to see is people not fighting anymore so
19:21
he can say, look, I brought peace.
19:24
We all know that that is not how it works.
19:27
The way you get lasting peace is by treated by agreement, by
19:32
trust being built up. And none of that is the kind of
19:36
thing that he is interested in or any good at.
19:39
And so that I think is very difficulty of him declaring
19:42
victory. Look, I've stopped all that
19:45
fighting and everybody else knowing that the moment he turns
19:48
his back, they're going to go back for more.
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What do you think that the Ukrainians would be prepared to
19:54
settle for that, you know, what would, what would Zelensky be
19:58
able to sell them in terms of security guarantees that does
20:02
not involve full-fledged membership of NATO?
20:05
Because, astonishingly, that still seems to be off the cards.
20:08
Yeah. You know, I was in Ukraine in
20:12
November, in December and the mood has changed and there's
20:17
there's a weariness and a need for this war to come to an end.
20:21
And you haven't got the same you go on to victory and every inch
20:26
of our territory because people know that that's not realistic.
20:31
And they they're just, you know, people are just worn down and
20:35
miserable and desperate. And so I think there would be a
20:39
willingness to sacrifice territory.
20:41
Not it won't be, you know, a sacrifice that says that this
20:45
becomes part of Russia. But at least for the moment,
20:47
accepting that they Ukraine doesn't control all of its
20:50
territory. But the, the, the security
20:53
guarantees would have to be robust enough that if, and I
20:59
think most Ukrainians would say when Putin comes back again in a
21:03
year's time or two years time, then somebody else will be there
21:07
fighting with us. And that's what's very difficult
21:09
to imagine. Nina, let me ask you, what do
21:11
you think Putin would be prepared to accept there was not
21:15
kind of completely defunct, you know, demilitarized Ukrainian
21:20
neutrality? So demilitarization, they
21:23
already think that Ukraine cannot produce anything.
21:26
They would probably demand some freedom for the Russian
21:29
language. They would want their Catherine
21:30
the Great back in Odessa. They would want their Pushkin
21:33
back somewhere. Or that could be part of the
21:36
part of the negotiation. I I really don't know what would
21:41
the Russians agree? And it all depends.
21:43
I think it all depends on on Trump's.
21:45
If Trump is fully green enough in his art of the deal as he
21:48
promises he is because Putin can negotiate.
21:52
If he is recognized as a one of whatever the great power person,
21:56
he may negotiate, because Russians are very vain this way
21:59
to be recognized by Western powers.
22:02
Well, vanity is not confined to Russia at the moment.
22:04
I think we can be safe to say that there's a plenty of it
22:07
going on in that building down the road from here just on
22:09
spheres of influence as well. I mean, when this whole thing
22:13
started in Ukraine. But these, you know, impossible
22:16
demands from Russia. There should never be NATO
22:18
troops in the Baltic states. You know, Sweden and Finland
22:21
should never be members of NATO. All these things, of course,
22:24
have been overturned. Do you think that that is what
22:27
he wants? Putin does, He wants to, does he
22:29
want to push NATO back further from places where they are
22:32
legitimately established right now?
22:34
So this isn't just about Ukraine.
22:36
It's also about the Baltic republics, or it's about Poland,
22:39
you know, or Romania and, you know, and basically those parts
22:42
of Eastern Europe that used to be very much in the Soviet
22:45
sphere of influence. In 25 years, let me remind you,
22:48
25 years of power, absolute power corrupts absolutely.
22:51
We not exactly know what's in his brain.
22:54
I mean, does he want the whole world?
22:55
Does he want just years of influence?
22:57
I see that he doesn't want to fight NATO, and so NATO keeps
23:01
kind of saying he's going to go to Europe, but I see he doesn't
23:05
want to. And that's why, for example, the
23:06
curse concursion continues to be the curse concursion.
23:10
Otherwise it would have been a declaration of war.
23:12
So that gives me some idea that he's willing to negotiate, but
23:17
he also is not willing to be humiliated.
23:20
And so it depends on how you frame it.
23:22
And that's what we go back to the Trump potential as a great
23:25
producer of his own show. Trump can do it, whether his
23:28
advisors and he himself understands, understand Putin
23:32
enough to do it or Russia enough or the future enough.
23:35
That's a question, OK. Final question to both of you.
23:39
So, yeah, I was went to some talk the other day and there was
23:42
a former head of the British Army who said we are already in
23:45
the foothills of World War Three.
23:47
And he looks at the kind of axis of, you know, of, of strong men,
23:51
you know, North Korea, Iran, China, Russia, you know, and now
23:56
Trump joins the club in a kind of ambiguous way.
24:00
And and he is he himself, and I've heard this from other
24:02
people, too, was deeply wired that all this will coalesce into
24:05
into some kind of global conflagration.
24:08
So with America praying, you know, in this little old
24:11
position of having a a wannabe strongman in the Oval Office,
24:15
but it's still, you know, a democracy.
24:17
Where do you think the most likely global flashpoint will be
24:23
in the coming years? Well, the global thrash point at
24:26
the moment is still Europe, isn't it?
24:28
It's Ukraine, and that hasn't gone away.
24:31
But then you what the, the PLA, the People's Liberation Army in
24:36
China is supposedly they're expecting to be ready to invade
24:42
Taiwan or block out Taiwan or take control of Taiwan by 2027.
24:47
That doesn't mean that they're going to do it, but that is what
24:50
they're aiming at being ready for.
24:51
So that is obviously another flashpoint and certainly within
24:55
the Trump administration. To intervene, right.
24:57
I mean, Trump may say, you know what?
24:59
You can keep your chips and you can keep your Taiwan.
25:01
And I'm not going to do anything about it.
25:03
We don't know. Yeah.
25:04
But I think that Trump would probably not intervene.
25:07
So then that would mean that China had, you know, extended
25:12
and in its power and then it's been trying to extend power all
25:15
across, you know, South China Sea and through to the
25:17
Philippines and, you know, Cambodia and Vietnam.
25:20
Again, this fear of influence. And we see an increasingly close
25:24
relationship between Russia and China and particularly between
25:28
President Xi Jinping and President Putin, who have met
25:31
more than 50 times. And I think there are a lot of
25:34
analysts who a few years ago is, although this was just like a
25:36
marriage of convenience. But actually, the more I read,
25:39
the more it's just actually the two of them have a very similar
25:42
world view that they get along very well and they see
25:46
themselves together facing this American enemy.
25:50
So in that case, the the flashpoint can be anywhere.
25:54
And I think that the danger with with Trump, he doesn't want to
25:58
enter any kind of war, which is a good thing.
26:01
But the fact is that I he doesn't seem to understand the
26:07
complicated diplomatic manoeuvres that you need to have
26:11
to do to prevent war and that, I think, is one of the major
26:16
dangers of the next four years. I agree.
26:20
I think it can happen from everywhere because we are so
26:23
close to I mean, it's like World War One anything.
26:27
I mean any gunshot somewhere that we don't even think about
26:30
can turn into something very dangerous.
26:32
And because America is no longer a leader in this, instead of
26:36
trying to provide some sort of checks and balances that it's,
26:40
it's free for all, it almost like Trump is declaring free for
26:43
all. And in free for all, it can
26:45
things can happen at any moment. I mean, look, look at Serbia.
26:48
What if something once again happens there?
26:51
Because we're already here from, from, from the Serbian president
26:55
that they've been trying to overrule power and we're not
26:57
going to allow that and so on and so forth.
27:00
So Europe, Asia, Africa, I mean that that conflict can also kind
27:05
of blow up. And we let's not forget Israel
27:07
and and, and Palestine. Thank you very much to both of
27:10
you. Lindsay Hilson, Nina Koscheva,
27:12
it's an absolute pleasure. Thank you for your insights.
27:15
That's it from the forecast from Washington.
27:17
Once again, thanks for watching.