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This Signal Says Bitcoin's Bottom Is In | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  The main question of the war in Iran, Who actually controls the
• 0:03
  Strait of Hormuz? President Donald Trump says that
• 0:06
  the US may actually be in control.
• 0:12
  Be jointly controlled? Maybe me.
• 0:17
  Maybe me. Me and the Ayatollah.
• 0:20
  Whoever the Ayatollah is. Whoever the next Ayatollah.
• 0:22
  And this has markets in a spiral, with gold officially in
• 0:25
  a bear market down 22% from all time highs.
• 0:28
  But the bigger story might just be what Bitcoin is doing under
• 0:31
  the surface. Nick Bhatia thinks he sees a
• 0:33
  signal, A signal that Bitcoin is bottom, a signal that stocks may
• 0:37
  underperform, A signal that Bitcoin may be ready to break
• 0:40
  out. A $2 billion asset manager says
• 0:42
  that the smart money has already been buying.
• 0:44
  And if he's right, the next move in Bitcoin could catch a lot of
• 0:46
  people flat footed, but not you. We've got a lot to cover.
• 0:50
  This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
• 0:56
  Everybody wants to talk about CPI rate cuts, Trump, the war in
• 1:00
  Iran, the Fed. Nick Bhatia says that the real
• 1:03
  trigger that happens in markets is always something else,
• 1:06
  defaults. That's the thing that creates
• 1:09
  the volatility. And when defaults start hitting
• 1:11
  the system, there's nothing that's actually safe.
• 1:14
  So if you can't pay back, not only do you know you default on
• 1:19
  the debt, but the bank that is issued to you or the
• 1:22
  mortgage-backed security holder that owns part of that mortgage
• 1:25
  is going to suffer impairment. That's why the Federal Reserve
• 1:31
  bought so many mortgage-backed securities between 2008 and
• 1:34
  2012, because if there were defaults in the system and the
• 1:40
  banks, we're going to take those defaults, then the whole system
• 1:45
  does collapse. We are in a $350 trillion debt
• 1:51
  based system, $350 trillion. Just numbers you can't
• 1:56
  comprehend. And you know, my students have
• 1:59
  to think in trillions is what we do every every single class we
• 2:04
  show charts and we're comparing this 7 trillion line item to
• 2:08
  this 38 trillion line item to the 64 trillion line item in the
• 2:12
  euro dollar system. 15 trillion in on in offshore dollar deposit
• 2:17
  claims, but another 60 trillion in FX swaps claims.
• 2:21
  These numbers are large, 350 trillion, the quarterly number
• 2:26
  that comes from the International Institute of
• 2:29
  Finance. It's a very large number, but
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  the system is built to roll over that debt.
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  That's where the liquidity framework comes from.
• 2:40
  What is the capacity for the system to roll the debt over?
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  And when that gets hit, defaults, financial crisis,
• 2:50
  central bank bailouts go back up.
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  That's just the system that we live in.
• 2:54
  That's the shift. And when that starts to happen,
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  everything starts to get repriced, not just stocks, not
• 2:59
  just debt, all collateral. And that's where things get
• 3:02
  really interesting for Bitcoin. Nick Bhatia believes that
• 3:04
  Bitcoin is going to eventually take a slice away from
• 3:07
  Treasuries to back the US financial system.
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  That's a massive statement. U.S.
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  Treasuries are the bedrock, the sacred cow.
• 3:14
  But in recent days, we've seen how they've been weaponized
• 3:16
  against the United States. That's why Bitcoin has a future
• 3:19
  role as collateral in the United States banking system.
• 3:22
  When you think about what is the base for future, future
• 3:26
  collateral and future banking, Bitcoin has has a role there.
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  And you can see it like I can see the path to the United
• 3:37
  States trying to direct capital into Bitcoin instead of into
• 3:42
  treasuries to make it less vulnerable to the rest of the
• 3:46
  world owning treasuries. But that doesn't mean that
• 3:49
  Treasuries will be will not take the same place within the
• 3:54
  financial system. If the market starts to question
• 3:57
  sovereign collateral, well, we don't need Bitcoin to take the
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  whole market just a little slice.
• 4:01
  And if it does, that changes the monetary stack forever.
• 4:05
  In that conversation between Danny and Nick, he said
• 4:07
  something that I loved. In the environment right now
• 4:10
  where people are uncertain about what's going on with Bitcoin,
• 4:13
  he's smashed buying Bitcoin. And I'm very bullish on Bitcoin.
• 4:19
  I started stacking again. Let's go.
• 4:23
  You know, not to over share, but like as a business operator I've
• 4:28
  been investing in my company and I haven't been investing the
• 4:33
  marginal dollar in Bitcoin for a couple years.
• 4:35
  So it feels really good to buy Bitcoin again.
• 4:40
  I think it's positioned really well.
• 4:42
  These prices are just too good, yeah.
• 4:44
  It's one of those things where you just kind of have to smash.
• 4:47
  He doesn't smash by because he's emotional.
• 4:50
  He has a liquidity index that he follows religiously.
• 4:53
  If you followed his work, he thinks the market is under
• 4:55
  pricing. Bitcoin's future role in light
• 4:57
  of what's going on with stocks right now.
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  Bitcoin is a macro trading asset that leads to indicators from
• 5:03
  other markets. And so Bitcoin went down 1st and
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  now we're seeing a rolling over in stocks.
• 5:08
  But this is the setup that he's talking about here.
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  I'm very hesitant to get too far ahead of ourselves because I
• 5:13
  think there's probably multiple reasons.
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  One, that it dropped 50% just before it, which I mean, how
• 5:18
  many sellers were really left? But is it even a sign that it's
• 5:22
  becoming more of a safe haven asset in these sort of big
• 5:25
  geopolitical events? No, I, I don't, I don't know.
• 5:29
  I what I think is that it was just leading.
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  I think that's, I think it's still very macro driven.
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  I think the correlation, well, I don't think this correlation
• 5:40
  with the stock market still very high, but now you see Bitcoin
• 5:44
  going up, stocks going down. So people are like, well, how is
• 5:46
  it still correlated? Because there's a little bit of
• 5:49
  decoupling. The way that correlation is
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  calculated is you look at daily returns and you compare them to
• 5:54
  each other. So on days where one goes up and
• 5:56
  the other goes up, that's a positive correlation.
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  The if you look at each day of Bitcoins down move, it did match
• 6:08
  a lot of the stock move, only that stocks when it went back
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  up, stocks stayed flat and Bitcoin was going down.
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  Now stocks have come down a little bit.
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  So I really believe that Bitcoin is still macro driven and our
• 6:23
  liquidity index gave a sell signal on January 14th that
• 6:27
  applies to both stocks and Bitcoin.
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  Bitcoin reacted right away. It's down about 20% from that
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  January 14th level and stocks stayed flat, but now they're
• 6:40
  going down and showing more weakness.
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  So I do think Bitcoin is leading and that's why I'm my bias right
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  now is to believe that the bounce that Bitcoin is showing
• 6:53
  is foreshadowing volatility coming down, which will boost
• 6:58
  TBL liquidity, our index, roll it back up and trigger a buy
• 7:03
  signal sometime in the next few months.
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  Bitcoin can stay correlated for a long time until it doesn't.
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  And when it breaks loose, it really breaks loose.
• 7:11
  And that's why people who really understand it don't sell it
• 7:14
  because you could sell Bitcoin at the wrong time.
• 7:16
  Instead borrowing against your Bitcoin Letting has been the
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• 7:22
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• 7:25
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• 7:27
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• 7:30
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• 7:33
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• 7:36
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• 7:39
  quick reminder, if you're going to own Bitcoin in this
• 7:41
  environment, don't own paper Bitcoin.
• 7:43
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• 7:46
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• 7:49
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• 7:52
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• 7:54
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• 8:00
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• 8:03
  Dash Cook, former Notre Dame CIO and $2 billion asset manager
• 8:08
  Mark Usko is saying the same things that Nick Bhatia was
• 8:11
  saying. He's saying that the bottom is
• 8:13
  in and that smart investors have already been buying.
• 8:16
  The worst of the selling has occurred, I totally agree
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  because what happens in these in these cycles is when the price
• 8:24
  is below fair value, investors buy.
• 8:28
  That's what we do, that's our job.
• 8:31
  We buy things below fair value and that's what happens during
• 8:35
  winter. The investors begin to nibble
• 8:39
  and and that's what causes spring, right.
• 8:42
  So today we are well below fair value, 70 fair values in the in
• 8:47
  the 80s. So, you know, people start to
• 8:50
  buy, we're buying again. And then what happens is when
• 8:54
  you get, you know, start to move, the price starts to move.
• 8:57
  When you get into crypto spring, then the traders come back and
• 9:01
  it starts to move again. And and then the hedgers start
• 9:05
  to sell. Because if you're mining Bitcoin
• 9:08
  and the price is below your total production cost, you're
• 9:11
  probably not going to sell it because you need to cover your
• 9:13
  cost. So you're going to hold it a
• 9:15
  little bit. You're going to hope the price
• 9:16
  goes up. Well, then when the hedgers
• 9:18
  start selling, the speculators have to take the other side of
• 9:21
  that trade. That's all.
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  Speculator is the opposite side of a hedger.
• 9:25
  And then ultimately, as the price gets higher, this is where
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  the humans are going to human. Then the leverage comes in and
• 9:31
  the gamblers come in and that's what causes these parabolic
• 9:34
  moves and that's what causes the cycle and the peak and then and
• 9:38
  then the crash. So we're a long way from that.
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  So I do think we're close to the end of the unwinding of all that
• 9:44
  leverage. There wasn't as much leverage
• 9:47
  this time. We got to 1.5 times fair value
• 9:49
  in October. So we didn't need to correct as
• 9:52
  far this time. So we probably have seen the
• 9:55
  lows, probably. That's when turning points
• 9:58
  happen. They're ugly, boring, confusing.
• 10:00
  Until they aren't. And Bitcoin is the cleanest
• 10:03
  dirty shirt. Nothing looks pristine in the
• 10:05
  world right now. Not stocks with high AI
• 10:07
  valuations, not treasuries, not long term or short term debt,
• 10:12
  and not global growth. But Bitcoin is differentiated.
• 10:15
  I think we finally found a reason for why Bitcoin could be
• 10:21
  a differentiated asset, which is what happens when you don't
• 10:26
  trust the US markets. There's nowhere else to go.
• 10:29
  You kind of look for that cleanest dirty shirt.
• 10:31
  And I think finally that could actually be Bitcoin.
• 10:36
  And some of the reports that we've been seeing is some of the
• 10:40
  wealth in the Middle East is actually looking at going into
• 10:45
  blockchain related assets and digital assets like Bitcoin
• 10:49
  because they're don't know where else to go.
• 10:52
  They definitely don't want to go into the USD right now.
• 10:55
  They don't want to go into gold. That's also a lot harder to do.
• 10:58
  And so those really easy to access crypto on ramps are
• 11:02
  actually potentially helping get that Middle Eastern wealth into
• 11:08
  blockchain. And that is also potentially
• 11:10
  propping up some of the Bitcoin prices we've seen most recently.
• 11:13
  Bitcoin doesn't need the world to be perfect.
• 11:15
  It doesn't need conditions to be perfect.
• 11:17
  That's why they call it the honey badger.
• 11:18
  It just doesn't die and it just doesn't quit.
• 11:21
  It just needs the alternative investments to continue to
• 11:23
  disappoint and to have uncertainty.
• 11:25
  Do you have certainty in bonds? Do you have certainty in
• 11:28
  treasuries? Do you have certainty that AI
• 11:30
  won't wipe out jobs? Do you have certainty that the
• 11:32
  CapEx and OpEx investments into AI are actually they're going to
• 11:35
  pay off? No, there's no certainty
• 11:37
  anywhere. But one thing is for certain,
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  Bitcoin is something that can't be killed and is a fixed asset
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  in a world of volatility and uncertainty.
• 11:44
  And when the defaults happen, that's when the rise happens
• 11:47
  faster than anyone can believe. I think people are going to be
• 11:50
  flat footed for what's about to happen next, but not you.
• 11:53
  Because as you've listened to the show, not only do you stack
• 11:56
  Bitcoin by buying on an exchange how you own a Bitcoin mining
• 11:59
  machine, you don't host it yourself.
• 12:01
  You didn't pick the machine yourself.
• 12:02
  You don't do the maintenance yourself because you've
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  outsourced it to a partner like SAS Money.
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  They handle everything for you, the miners, the maintenance, the
• 12:10
  hosting, they just send Bitcoin directly to your wallet.
• 12:13
  Check out SAS Mining with the QR code on the screen.
• 12:15
  This is Dante Coca Bitcoin. Simply happy stacking.