Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Divisional Round

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NFL Gambling Recap | Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:16
Speaker 1: is our Divisional Round recap episode.
0:19
Speaker 2: I am Chad Nolman.
0:20
Speaker 1: I am joined by my bff, my companion, Mike and
0:23
Speaker 1: Padre my co host, Professional Better Sigmon Hunter ETOs.
0:27
Speaker 2: So I'm in.
0:28
Speaker 3: How are we doing? Chad? Dude, dude?
0:32
Speaker 1: We're going to get some perspective here because we literally
0:35
Speaker 1: just had for sure, the worst weekend we've had this year,
0:40
Speaker 1: pure offer on every game, maybe the worst weekend we've
0:44
Speaker 1: had in four or five years of doing this together.
0:48
Speaker 1: We were wrong on every side of every game. Everything
0:51
Speaker 1: we thought would happen the opposite happened. We were convinced
0:54
Speaker 1: a dominant defense on the number one seeded team that
0:58
Speaker 1: was a huge favorite would be fuddle first year starting quarterback.
1:01
Speaker 1: At least that happened. But did we choose the right one?
1:06
Speaker 1: That is the question and so many other questions we
1:09
Speaker 1: will answer on today's pod. We will go over all
1:12
Speaker 1: the Divisional Round games. See how we did on Simon
1:14
Speaker 1: says exec Decision Big Balls, foxhoul I might have foreshadowed
1:18
Speaker 1: not well. Plus we give our first instinct takes on
1:22
Speaker 1: the conference title games. The only perspective I can give
1:25
Speaker 1: is that we are not massive, massive bills fans right now.
1:32
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by Bet
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1:59
Speaker 1: one or older president in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Louisiana, Ohio, Virginia,
2:04
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called
2:08
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
2:10
Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Let the torture begin,
2:18
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, we will get to Bill's chiefs last. That
2:23
Speaker 1: was our Simon says, first game up big balls bet
2:26
Speaker 1: of the week. That was Houston plus nine at Baltimore.
2:29
Speaker 2: That is the.
2:30
Speaker 1: Game where the number one seeded team that was the
2:33
Speaker 1: big favorite with the great defense did be fuddle a
2:37
Speaker 1: quarterback in his starting in his first year and in
2:40
Speaker 1: his second playoff game. We always talk about being on
2:44
Speaker 1: the right side of the cresting wave. We did not
2:48
Speaker 1: catch the wave in this game in any way. We
2:51
Speaker 1: didn't jump off the Lamar trends. We did jump off
2:57
Speaker 1: the Lamar twin. No, we did not jump off off
3:00
Speaker 1: of the Lamar trends as a big favorite at the
3:03
Speaker 1: right time. We did not jump off of the John
3:05
Speaker 1: Harbough trends as a big favorite at the right time.
3:10
Speaker 1: We had false hope at the end of the first half,
3:12
Speaker 1: like the return by Steven Simms to tie the game.
3:17
Speaker 1: Really good series by the Houston Texans defense. By the
3:22
Speaker 1: end of the third quarter, we were in a back
3:25
Speaker 1: door cover mode.
3:26
Speaker 2: It's really it.
3:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, like you said, though we got that kick return,
3:31
Speaker 3: it's like you had that false hope. It's ten to ten,
3:33
Speaker 3: we missed a field goal. We should have been winning.
3:35
Speaker 3: At halftime, was feeling pretty good and yeah, CG just
3:39
Speaker 3: laid an egg. And I had plenty of people bring
3:42
Speaker 3: up the fact that that DC is the same guy
3:45
Speaker 3: that shut him down when he was at Michigan and
3:48
Speaker 3: Cgo was Ohio State, so apparently he knows how to
3:51
Speaker 3: play him. And I really didn't buy into it too much,
3:53
Speaker 3: but I guess they're kind of right. But it was
3:55
Speaker 3: just it felt like everything that could have went wrong
3:57
Speaker 3: for Houston kind of did the game really to me?
4:00
Speaker 3: Said more about Lamar, right, Lamar came out in that
4:03
Speaker 3: second half, drove down the field, got the ball back,
4:07
Speaker 3: drove down the field, and then you got the ball
4:09
Speaker 3: back and drove down the field. It's like, that's that's
4:12
Speaker 3: MVP regular season Lamar. So the fact that he hit
4:15
Speaker 3: his best half of football in his playoff career in
4:18
Speaker 3: that game, we got got Yeah, like you said, that
4:20
Speaker 3: was a bad bet, false false hope in the first
4:24
Speaker 3: half for sure, where it's like, oh, they're in this
4:27
Speaker 3: game and they were just never in it like CJ
4:30
Speaker 3: just never never did the thing CJ usually does in
4:32
Speaker 3: those games, which just keep things close. And yeah, Lamar,
4:36
Speaker 3: Lamar caught us in a good spot like they're they're
4:39
Speaker 3: they're a really complete team. And I saw the crazy
4:42
Speaker 3: stats like everything head in his article about how well
4:44
Speaker 3: they've played against the best teams this year, and it's
4:47
Speaker 3: pretty incredible, Like they struggle against five hundred teams, but
4:50
Speaker 3: everyone that's like three games above five hundred, they just
4:53
Speaker 3: smack them. And that's the kind of team they are.
4:55
Speaker 3: So Yeah, that that was a bad bet.
5:00
Speaker 1: We got got is a great way to say it.
5:05
Speaker 1: There was one thing that we talked about. We talked
5:09
Speaker 1: about on the Favorites multiple times, We talked about it
5:12
Speaker 1: on Green Dot Daily with Maria, we talked about it
5:16
Speaker 1: on Convince Me when we were doing the show. We
5:18
Speaker 1: were talking about this game.
5:21
Speaker 3: C J.
5:21
Speaker 1: Stroud all season long had been a different quarterback when
5:26
Speaker 1: he was on the road playing outside than when he
5:29
Speaker 1: was at home, and we just sort of decided that
5:34
Speaker 1: wasn't going to be something that we worried about very
5:36
Speaker 1: much in this game. I don't know why. I don't
5:41
Speaker 1: know what. I think we just sort of we bought
5:45
Speaker 1: the hype of how good he had been at the
5:48
Speaker 1: end of the season and decided that that combined with
5:53
Speaker 1: Lamar really not having proven it yet, not just in
5:57
Speaker 1: the playoffs, but as a big favorite not having proven it,
6:01
Speaker 1: I think that got into our head.
6:02
Speaker 2: I think that's what it was.
6:03
Speaker 3: What do you think, Yeah, and I'd also say we're
6:06
Speaker 3: eight and two betting against Lamar is a big favorite,
6:09
Speaker 3: So yeah, we got got there. But like I said,
6:12
Speaker 3: it's we play the spot. We like Lamar as a
6:15
Speaker 3: short favorite or a big dog, and a little foreshadowing
6:19
Speaker 3: looks like we might begin them as a short favorite.
6:23
Speaker 1: The Ravens defense was downright sick, and we have not
6:27
Speaker 1: talked about them as a dominant team because when whenever
6:29
Speaker 1: we talk about this team, we talk about Lamar and
6:32
Speaker 1: I want to give I want to spend a second
6:34
Speaker 1: just outlining some of the stats here because obviously they're
6:38
Speaker 1: playing in the AFC title game against the Kansas City Chiefs,
6:40
Speaker 1: so it's a little bit of foreshadowing and previewing for
6:43
Speaker 1: that breakdown. These are numbers against the quarterback who led
6:49
Speaker 1: the league in passing yards per game in this game, right,
6:52
Speaker 1: two hundred and thirteen total yards, ten total first downs,
6:55
Speaker 1: thirty eight rushing yards.
6:57
Speaker 2: If you look at the box score, it's just a
7:01
Speaker 2: bunch of freaking zeros.
7:03
Speaker 1: No offensive touchdowns, no points in the second half. Lamar
7:09
Speaker 1: is the conversation because he was MVP, and people think, well,
7:12
Speaker 1: they're not dominant because he's not dominant.
7:15
Speaker 2: This defense.
7:15
Speaker 1: Simon, we talked about Kyle Hamilton in one of our
7:20
Speaker 1: breakdowns our favorite film room, how dominant he can be.
7:26
Speaker 1: That's exactly what he was on Sunday. I cannot wait
7:30
Speaker 1: to get your take on this defense against the Chiefs.
7:36
Speaker 1: Given what we both thought of the Chiefs going into
7:38
Speaker 1: this game against the Bills. How we are going to
7:41
Speaker 1: frame how we feel what the Chiefs just did against
7:43
Speaker 1: this Bills defense and what they are going to be
7:47
Speaker 1: facing against the Ravens defense.
7:50
Speaker 2: Fascinating.
7:51
Speaker 1: We're going to get to that game in a little bit. First,
7:55
Speaker 1: we have to continue with the torture and the flogging
7:59
Speaker 1: and the self refla we're self.
8:00
Speaker 2: Scouting right now.
8:02
Speaker 1: Exec decision Green Bay at San Francisco, San Francisco minus
8:04
Speaker 1: ten bad, my.
8:07
Speaker 2: Bad, woops.
8:10
Speaker 1: Look, we talked about dominant defenses on the number one
8:12
Speaker 1: seeded team that was a huge favorite, that would fuddle
8:15
Speaker 1: a first year starting quarterback.
8:16
Speaker 2: This is the game we were pegging.
8:18
Speaker 1: I can't tell if I dragged you into it, Like
8:21
Speaker 1: early in the week you were like, yeah, that makes sense.
8:24
Speaker 1: By the end of the week, you were all freaking
8:26
Speaker 1: in on this game. You were one hundred percent with
8:29
Speaker 1: me and I will tell you. I will tell you,
8:35
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel, There's going to be a year. I texted
8:38
Speaker 1: my buddy sat this today. There's going to be a
8:42
Speaker 1: year where brock Perty wins the MVP of the league
8:45
Speaker 1: and Deebo Samuel was voted MVP by his teammates of
8:49
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers because that first series, this is
8:53
Speaker 1: what happened. McCaffrey for five, party Samuel for fifteen, to
9:00
Speaker 1: Samuel for nine. Then he's out of the game. Purdy
9:04
Speaker 1: is off his game for the rest of the game.
9:08
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel's got to play for them to have a chance.
9:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, but this is the Debo's Achilles heel, so he
9:15
Speaker 3: will never be in that scenario. He plays. I know
9:17
Speaker 3: it sounds stupid to say, but he plays too hard.
9:19
Speaker 3: Even Kyle Shannan talked about this where they're scared to
9:22
Speaker 3: get him touches in the middle of the season because
9:24
Speaker 3: they're like, he can't not go one hundred and ten percent,
9:27
Speaker 3: Like if he sees the guy ahead of him, he'll
9:28
Speaker 3: never step out of balance. He's gonna try to run
9:30
Speaker 3: through that guy's face. And that's just how Deebo plays.
9:32
Speaker 3: So I love it. I'm with you. It's like, this
9:34
Speaker 3: guy's incredible. I remember being really pissed off Eagles didn't
9:38
Speaker 3: get him. We got some some guy named aj Brown.
9:42
Speaker 3: It turned out to be an all right move, but
9:44
Speaker 3: that's everyone wants to debo. Debo is such a game changer,
9:47
Speaker 3: but he only knows one way to play. So, uh,
9:50
Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from, though, Like, shout out
9:54
Speaker 3: to our listeners who are at the live show. Apparently
9:56
Speaker 3: I did say I was gonna take Green Bay plus ten,
9:59
Speaker 3: but you're that's right. You talked me into it. A
10:01
Speaker 3: bunch of people talked me into it, and I was like,
10:02
Speaker 3: you know what if it's under ten, you guys are right.
10:05
Speaker 3: That was a good number. And I think we had
10:08
Speaker 3: three different times were lined up. We still could have
10:10
Speaker 3: got that under ten play like it was gonna land
10:12
Speaker 3: on ten and yeah, like any's sick of that gambles.
10:16
Speaker 3: You always have this false hope and they had that
10:18
Speaker 3: pick and you're like, yes, this idiot's trying to run
10:20
Speaker 3: it back. We're gonna get that stoor cover, but no,
10:24
Speaker 3: we'ven't deserved it. This week. None of the bounces went
10:26
Speaker 3: our way, And that's what's so tough about playoffs. It's
10:29
Speaker 3: like our read wasn't terrible. The thing we didn't predict
10:34
Speaker 3: was Prety just not being himself right. It took him
10:37
Speaker 3: a little bit to get going. But at the same time,
10:41
Speaker 3: if you're a four nine ers fan, how are you
10:43
Speaker 3: not just so excited, Like the guy led a game
10:46
Speaker 3: winning drive. It's something that's so hard to do into
10:49
Speaker 3: the playoffs, and you got to see that from Purdy.
10:52
Speaker 3: So yeah, another game we got wrong. But at the
10:57
Speaker 3: same time, like I felt like it was a coint game,
11:00
Speaker 3: but the Green Bay felt like the right side from
11:02
Speaker 3: the get go, where there Jordan Love was just playing
11:04
Speaker 3: really well. I did not see him playing as well
11:07
Speaker 3: as he did, so put us to that team like
11:09
Speaker 3: Jordan Love every week he showed up here for these
11:12
Speaker 3: last nine eight weeks.
11:14
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, because I was trying to figure this out,
11:18
Speaker 1: and by the way, I was doing the same thing.
11:20
Speaker 1: I was doing the gambler's math, and at the end
11:22
Speaker 1: of the game, I'm like, oh yeah, I'm like, I
11:26
Speaker 1: still got an outside shot at the minus two and
11:29
Speaker 1: a half, I still got a very outside shot at
11:33
Speaker 1: the over fifty and a half. Like I was just
11:37
Speaker 1: holding on and it was not a pretty night in
11:39
Speaker 1: my house. I'm just going to tell you my kid
11:42
Speaker 1: and had all his buddies over.
11:45
Speaker 2: They all ordered wings.
11:47
Speaker 1: Two of them ended up puking because they got some
11:51
Speaker 1: kind of something going on. So in the middle of
11:53
Speaker 1: the game, I'm upstairs in my kids room cleaning up
11:56
Speaker 1: because he's not feeling great. And then I got to
11:59
Speaker 1: go back down. Jordan Love was not amazing in this game,
12:04
Speaker 1: Like like in the first in the first two drives,
12:08
Speaker 1: they had the ball for what the twelve minutes of
12:10
Speaker 1: the first quarter. Completed five of his first ten passes
12:14
Speaker 1: for less than twenty yards. Then he had that one
12:17
Speaker 1: long throw, but they were just running the ball so well.
12:21
Speaker 1: The Niners couldn't get off the field and they couldn't
12:23
Speaker 1: stop there in Jones.
12:24
Speaker 2: That was that was the ball game.
12:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, he played really well, but it's it's more about
12:31
Speaker 3: how Jordan Love plays in the red zone. Like it's
12:33
Speaker 3: so hard to score in the league, and it's like
12:36
Speaker 3: every week he gets two to three touchdown passes. It's
12:39
Speaker 3: just crazy how effishing he is in this little floor offense.
12:42
Speaker 3: But you're right, no, he didn't have his a game.
12:44
Speaker 3: He had two picks in the game and Aaron Jones,
12:48
Speaker 3: a guy who they were trying to split cares with
12:49
Speaker 3: all season, I mean back to back weeks. How dominant
12:52
Speaker 3: was he for that team. So it's it's just interesting
12:56
Speaker 3: on these teams want to move on from these running
12:57
Speaker 3: backs of the past, and sometimes it's like just play
13:00
Speaker 3: the guy who's earned it, right, Aaron Jones earned those touches.
13:02
Speaker 3: It was just where they went over from them this season.
13:04
Speaker 3: But we had a Green Bay. How can you not
13:07
Speaker 3: be so excited about your future? Like that's just it's
13:10
Speaker 3: just crazy. Three straight guys they've drafted, I've hit. It's
13:13
Speaker 3: just we all we all hate you Green Bay. I
13:16
Speaker 3: think you guys know that. So that's just how it is.
13:19
Speaker 1: They haven't had a quarterback issue since nineteen ninety two.
13:24
Speaker 3: Who was that quarterback? Was it Harrorball?
13:26
Speaker 2: No, Don Don mckowski even better? Who I remember.
13:32
Speaker 1: Watching in my freaking college dorm room at Indiana University,
13:38
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden it was Brett Farrer
13:40
Speaker 1: and then Rogers and now Jordan Love. So here's what's interesting,
13:43
Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about this one too. In
13:45
Speaker 1: the preview for the NFC title Game, Deebo Samuel goes
13:49
Speaker 1: out brock Purty struggles almost immediately. He's indecisive, he's not accurate.
13:58
Speaker 1: Just the game plan is totally different. And so of
14:01
Speaker 1: course I was obsessed with this game this morning, reading
14:04
Speaker 1: everything about it because I want to know if Dibo's
14:07
Speaker 1: going to be playing, because I love this team so much.
14:10
Speaker 1: And even Shanahan was talking about after the game how
14:14
Speaker 1: much it changes his game plan and how much it
14:18
Speaker 1: changes everything for everyone in the field. And he actually
14:20
Speaker 1: pointed out that Cleveland Browns game where Deebo went out
14:24
Speaker 1: during the game the Niners had a chance to win,
14:27
Speaker 1: they ended up missing a field goal. He said, it
14:31
Speaker 1: happened during the Cleveland game. We didn't handle it well.
14:33
Speaker 1: We handled it better today than we did then. The
14:37
Speaker 1: only difference in those two games is this time brought
14:41
Speaker 1: Purdy the Livers with a touchdown instead of leading it
14:43
Speaker 1: up to Jake Moody, who also missed a field goal
14:45
Speaker 1: in that game. Cordon schefter, and again we'll get to
14:49
Speaker 1: the Niners lines a Cordon Schefter. Diebo told people on
14:53
Speaker 1: the Niners he was okay. Cordon to Michael Irvin, who
14:55
Speaker 1: said he spoke to Deebo. Samuel Diebo said he can
14:59
Speaker 1: lift his arm arms above his head.
15:01
Speaker 2: He's feeling better. No no, uh.
15:06
Speaker 1: No, sure confirmation that he's playing yet, but they are
15:12
Speaker 1: starting to feel positive, all right. The foxhole Tampa plus
15:16
Speaker 1: six and a half Detroit. Not to say about this
15:18
Speaker 1: one kind of played exactly as we expected it too.
15:22
Speaker 2: There's a two point conversion at the end of the game.
15:24
Speaker 2: They were down eight, they went for the two. They
15:27
Speaker 2: make it. We probably cover the bet they missed it.
15:30
Speaker 2: We don't.
15:31
Speaker 1: It wasn't a lopsided game. It played this This is
15:33
Speaker 1: when we got right. We were just on the wrong
15:35
Speaker 1: side of two point conversion.
15:39
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, Like I had a guy text me as
15:42
Speaker 3: a joke, like, you guys had a good week. We
15:44
Speaker 3: went three and one in the first half, Like fuck
15:47
Speaker 3: you dude. That's no sick name though. It's just all
15:50
Speaker 3: these all these second halfs were just brutal for us.
15:53
Speaker 3: This one here is like exactly what we talked about.
15:56
Speaker 3: We talked about Mike Evans is the receptions as touchdowns.
15:59
Speaker 3: We knew that they were gonna really attack this Lion
16:02
Speaker 3: still on the outside, and you know, it's just what
16:07
Speaker 3: a time to be a Lions fan. Like I can't
16:08
Speaker 3: get over the fact that this offense. Every time they
16:12
Speaker 3: need seven they do produce. Like it's pretty incredible they're
16:15
Speaker 3: able to produce for like this this playoffs. It's not
16:19
Speaker 3: too big for him. And I know golf, Like obviously
16:21
Speaker 3: he's been to the super Bowl. That's that's something real, right,
16:25
Speaker 3: Like the fact that he has that confidence in himself
16:27
Speaker 3: and he's playing that well. You know, he's making big
16:30
Speaker 3: time throws in these games. Like he had a lot
16:32
Speaker 3: of pressure to deal with today and he handled it
16:34
Speaker 3: really well. Something we just saw the week before Jalen
16:37
Speaker 3: Hurts could not make the hot read, but like he
16:39
Speaker 3: made the hot read every time he needed to make it.
16:41
Speaker 3: So the two headed running back monsters, right, like the
16:46
Speaker 3: Gibbs Montgomery combo. One of the guys doesn't have a
16:49
Speaker 3: great game, the other one really picks it up. And
16:51
Speaker 3: then Laporta has looked better every week since the knee injury.
16:54
Speaker 3: And then we know I'm on Saint Brown. It's like
16:57
Speaker 3: all the pieces are there. I think that the the
17:00
Speaker 3: fact remains me and you have questions about their defense, right,
17:03
Speaker 3: And Baker, he had his moments. He just missed a
17:06
Speaker 3: couple of throws that he should have had and it
17:07
Speaker 3: would have been a different game. So yeah, came down
17:10
Speaker 3: to a two point. Like we said, just was not
17:13
Speaker 3: our week. It did not go our way. Easily could
17:16
Speaker 3: have called a pass interference if Mike Geman has played
17:18
Speaker 3: that ball differently. He didn't no need to call it.
17:21
Speaker 3: That was a clean, clean play by the defense. And yeah,
17:25
Speaker 3: I was just happy that Bowles went for the two
17:27
Speaker 3: because I thought for sure he was not going to
17:29
Speaker 3: go for two. Like I was like, God, this dinosaur,
17:32
Speaker 3: this is why they want to take them to win
17:33
Speaker 3: this game. And he did, like he shut me up.
17:36
Speaker 3: He went for the two. He played it smart. Just
17:38
Speaker 3: didn't work out for them. So yeah, no regrets. It's
17:41
Speaker 3: about It's about we were gonna make. I told Drive
17:44
Speaker 3: the number five and a half. If it was five
17:47
Speaker 3: and a half four and a half, I would have
17:48
Speaker 3: taken the lines is. We were just playing the numbers
17:50
Speaker 3: and I have no regrets. Like you said, it came
17:53
Speaker 3: down to a two pointer. So we liked Baker all season.
17:57
Speaker 3: He was good to a saw season, just didn't didn't
17:59
Speaker 3: end the way we were hoped with a Tampa cover
18:01
Speaker 3: in the Lions outright, I was.
18:04
Speaker 1: Thinking about you when Bulls is going for that two
18:06
Speaker 1: point conversion because all season long we've been bashing the
18:11
Speaker 1: guy for being a dinosaur, and so good on him
18:14
Speaker 1: for not pulling Ron Rivera and playing the right play
18:20
Speaker 1: and going for two there. You know, it was very
18:22
Speaker 1: much like a Matt Lafleur move, not a Time Bowles move.
18:28
Speaker 1: And yeah, we packed Baker. He had moxie. He did
18:33
Speaker 1: right by us. You know, you just said the same
18:35
Speaker 1: thing about Lamar, like probably eight and two betting against
18:38
Speaker 1: Lamar in these big favorite spots. Had a nice year
18:41
Speaker 1: back in Baker. No regrets on that one. This last
18:46
Speaker 1: one the Chiefs. It's the flip side for you and
18:48
Speaker 1: I of the Packers and the Niners, because when we
18:52
Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday, you loved the Bills, and
18:56
Speaker 1: I was struggling because I wanted to bet the Chiefs
18:59
Speaker 1: and I just could not get myself over the hump.
19:06
Speaker 1: And eventually I did. Like The conversation around this Chiefs
19:12
Speaker 1: team and what they were doing offensively and how they
19:17
Speaker 1: couldn't finish against Miami stuck in my head all week.
19:23
Speaker 1: When you're watching this game as someone who literally I'm
19:27
Speaker 1: convinced me yesterday you were pleading with people to take
19:31
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. When you're watching this game, how was
19:35
Speaker 1: it planning out in your head? Where the Chiefs a
19:37
Speaker 1: different team than you thought.
19:41
Speaker 3: Different in the sense I thought their defense was so bad.
19:43
Speaker 3: I was like, wow, I can't believe that easily the
19:45
Speaker 3: Bills were moving the ball, and then you know they
19:48
Speaker 3: held them with two field goals. I was feeling pretty good, like, Okay,
19:51
Speaker 3: this is what we expected this Chiefs offense, and then
19:53
Speaker 3: it just eventually clicked right, like they never punted. I
19:57
Speaker 3: think maybe they had one punt that Chiefs offense. It
20:01
Speaker 3: just I mean, Mahomes did what Mahomes does, right, You
20:03
Speaker 3: did whatever he wanted that game, and you know mcdermotdd
20:08
Speaker 3: like the whole defensive staff for the Bills, they just
20:10
Speaker 3: never made the adjustments to get the stops. And it
20:14
Speaker 3: felt like the Bills were kind of getting lucky to
20:16
Speaker 3: be in it, like even though they had a four
20:18
Speaker 3: point lead a half, Yeah, it felt like, Okay, if
20:22
Speaker 3: the Chiefs open with a drive and a touchdown here,
20:24
Speaker 3: we could be in trouble. That's what Mahomes did. It
20:27
Speaker 3: drove right down the field, scored a touchdown. But yeah,
20:30
Speaker 3: tough where it's like Josh Allen played such a great game,
20:33
Speaker 3: and then he got tight there at the end in
20:35
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. And that's playoff football, Like it's really
20:38
Speaker 3: hard not to get your head cluttered right, keep your
20:40
Speaker 3: mind clear and stay in the moment. Not a lot
20:43
Speaker 3: of guys can do that professionally, and Mahomes thrives in
20:47
Speaker 3: these type of moments where it's like he's just so
20:49
Speaker 3: locked in. You know, Josh Allen needed a touch out
20:54
Speaker 3: at the end of the game, and we drooked before
20:57
Speaker 3: coming on air, like if your last name's a fish name,
21:00
Speaker 3: you're a loser for life, like you're never you might
21:03
Speaker 3: do well in life like Trout make a ton of money,
21:05
Speaker 3: you will have zero playoff success like Trout Bass. All
21:08
Speaker 3: these fish guys. Get them out of my life. I
21:11
Speaker 3: can't take it, Like just unreal that guy missing that
21:15
Speaker 3: kick though, But even if you.
21:17
Speaker 1: Made no idea where you were going with that Salmon,
21:19
Speaker 1: Tim Salmon's.
21:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I get him out of my life. But even
21:23
Speaker 3: if he made that kick, it felt like Mahomes had
21:25
Speaker 3: come down the field, get a field. There was too
21:27
Speaker 3: much time, yes, So like you said, we were just
21:31
Speaker 3: all on the wrong side of it. Where I believe
21:35
Speaker 3: in the bills at home it never mattered, did it right?
21:39
Speaker 3: Like there was no false starts. The Bills fans were
21:41
Speaker 3: giving it their all, being allowed as hell. It just
21:44
Speaker 3: never phased them. They never had false starts Like it
21:47
Speaker 3: did nothing to that that Chiefs offense. So yeah, like
21:52
Speaker 3: I thought home field was gonna be a big deal
21:53
Speaker 3: in that game, and clearly it was not. They won
21:56
Speaker 3: by one by three. So just can't say enough how
21:59
Speaker 3: great Mames is and just keeps added to his legacy.
22:02
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, even through his agony, is such a professional.
22:07
Speaker 1: Don't forget Matt Mitchell, who was wearing a Buffalo Bills
22:12
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two Super Bowl combination windbreaker material sweatsuit for
22:20
Speaker 1: the game last Monday in New York real time fact
22:24
Speaker 1: checking reminding us that Tim Salmon two thousand and two
22:27
Speaker 1: World Series champion with the California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels.
22:33
Speaker 2: Thank you, Matt Mitchell. I felt like.
22:40
Speaker 3: Los Angeles Angels never won anything whatever.
22:43
Speaker 1: I don't know what they called themselves in two thousand
22:45
Speaker 1: and two, but he was on the Angels when they
22:47
Speaker 1: won the World Series. Was now saying in the Chata
22:52
Speaker 1: nipple on Network TV, but you can let my children
22:54
Speaker 1: see the most disgusting fake punt with the back. I
22:58
Speaker 1: do feel like now game going, I do feel like
23:03
Speaker 1: that fake punt reaked of panic and I'm just does
23:11
Speaker 1: that make me, as an owner of the Bills have
23:15
Speaker 1: to assess Sean McDermott right now. I thought that was
23:18
Speaker 1: a terrible call, and I thought that in the at
23:21
Speaker 1: the end of the game. The play calling overall was
23:23
Speaker 1: terrible Joe Brady and McDermott defensively, but that call specifically
23:28
Speaker 1: terrible call.
23:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was apparently they said on TV that there
23:32
Speaker 3: was ten guys on the field. That's where they made
23:34
Speaker 3: that call.
23:35
Speaker 2: Right, they made an adjustment in real time.
23:37
Speaker 3: Yes, that sucks where it's like, yeah, I would say,
23:41
Speaker 3: why in the world would you not have Josh Allen
23:44
Speaker 3: make a fourth and five decision like one of the
23:45
Speaker 3: best players in the world, rather than leaving up to
23:48
Speaker 3: Hamlin making some weird read where it's like they're running
23:52
Speaker 3: it to the left here and just opening behind his
23:54
Speaker 3: line and they push forward. You're right, like, it was
23:57
Speaker 3: a weird call. But I do think it was them
23:59
Speaker 3: make in the in game adjustment because they read that
24:01
Speaker 3: there was only ten guys out there, so who knows
24:04
Speaker 3: it could have been Hamlin's call. What I think that
24:07
Speaker 3: all the Bills fans are mad about, even though they
24:09
Speaker 3: din't have injuries for their defense, was just the lack
24:11
Speaker 3: of adjustments right the Chiefs. I just said, I think
24:14
Speaker 3: they putted one time in that game like that. That
24:16
Speaker 3: means every time they have the ball, they're either getting
24:18
Speaker 3: three or seven. Like you'll never win a home playoff
24:21
Speaker 3: game if you can't get at least one or two stops.
24:23
Speaker 3: And yeah, just just didn't worked out. Like Mahomes. He
24:28
Speaker 3: had a couple of amazing plays, but it really felt
24:30
Speaker 3: like it was the old school Chiefs where it was
24:33
Speaker 3: schemed up, where guys were just open right, Like how
24:35
Speaker 3: many players were guys just wide open. That's what we
24:37
Speaker 3: were used to seeing from them. You really see it
24:39
Speaker 3: this year. So yeah, in their in their biggest moment,
24:42
Speaker 3: the guys who played it simple, just betting Mahomes blindly
24:45
Speaker 3: as a dog. They cash again, I don't know it's up.
24:47
Speaker 3: It was at nine to one on one now, Evan, Yeah,
24:50
Speaker 3: we're the fools were going against it.
24:54
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to break down these games a little
24:55
Speaker 1: bit pretty soon. We're just gonna burn this film. Get
24:58
Speaker 1: started at Simon resolutions with Factors so you're ready for
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Speaker 2: Also, don't forget.
26:07
Speaker 1: If you're watching us on YouTube, please like this video
26:10
Speaker 1: and subscribe to our you Tube page. All right, Jesus
26:16
Speaker 1: Christ just dreadful Foxhole Tampa Bay plus six and a
26:21
Speaker 1: half loser. Simon says, Buffalo minus two and a half loser.
26:26
Speaker 1: Exec decision Stepsis go minus ten loser. Big Balls Houston
26:31
Speaker 1: plus nine and a half. Le Wuz there her round,
26:35
Speaker 1: Robin Houston, San Francisco, Detroit, Buffalo. All right, that's that's it.
26:44
Speaker 1: We're done talking about this week. We're moving on. Everyone
26:47
Speaker 1: has a bad week. The week before, Simon, we cleaned
26:51
Speaker 1: up across the board. Then you have a bad week.
26:55
Speaker 1: It just happens.
26:56
Speaker 2: You got a rally.
26:57
Speaker 1: Just a couple more weeks of football left Detroit to
27:01
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Critisco seven point favorite.
27:03
Speaker 3: Right now.
27:05
Speaker 1: I've talked a lot about Debo. Here's the difference between
27:10
Speaker 1: the Niners with him without Debo. When he was on
27:13
Speaker 1: the field this year for a full game, the Niners
27:17
Speaker 1: were twelve and one and won by an average of
27:20
Speaker 1: eighteen points per game. In games he misses or starts
27:29
Speaker 1: and doesn't finish, one and four zero to five against
27:35
Speaker 1: the spread, the lone win being last night. It's like
27:41
Speaker 1: they had one game where they won by less than
27:43
Speaker 1: double digits. When he was on the field. The entire game.
27:46
Speaker 1: That was Week two on the road at the Rams,
27:47
Speaker 1: and they won by a freaking touchdown. Like, if he's
27:53
Speaker 1: on the field, then we can count on it, which
27:56
Speaker 1: we can't. You just have to bet this team he
28:00
Speaker 1: starts if he is in the lineup. I don't know
28:04
Speaker 1: how you don't play the percentages and bet the San
28:07
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers.
28:10
Speaker 3: Can't believe you're not on Detroit. This is this is
28:12
Speaker 3: such a chad story. This is what you live for.
28:14
Speaker 3: This is like as good as it gets as a
28:15
Speaker 3: football fan rooting for Detroit. Here it's a big number,
28:19
Speaker 3: Like I'm shocked you don't love the seven. This is
28:22
Speaker 3: like this is the number. We'll always have a chance
28:24
Speaker 3: for a back door, Like that's why we take these
28:25
Speaker 3: big numbers in these games where it's like, you know, Detroit,
28:29
Speaker 3: say what you want about them. I know there are
28:30
Speaker 3: different team outdoors. The fact that they made it to
28:32
Speaker 3: this point shows how good they are. And I feel
28:35
Speaker 3: like the books are not really factor in how good
28:38
Speaker 3: this offense is. Like here and there, they do go
28:42
Speaker 3: through phases where they don't move the ball, but all
28:44
Speaker 3: of a sudden they'll go three or four straight possessions
28:46
Speaker 3: they'll score, right, They'll just drive the field and score.
28:49
Speaker 3: And this forty others team we've seen, they're able to
28:54
Speaker 3: be passed on. Like that La Lamar game, they were
28:57
Speaker 3: able to pass the ball. Even Jordan Love, I know
28:58
Speaker 3: you say he had the greatest game. He almost threw
29:00
Speaker 3: for two hundred yards and he threw for two touchdowns.
29:03
Speaker 3: Like you are able to move the ball through the
29:05
Speaker 3: air against this team, right. It's the key to them
29:08
Speaker 3: is their D line and their linebackers. So you know
29:12
Speaker 3: there's ways that they can attack this team. I just
29:15
Speaker 3: feel like at seven, it's such a big number, Like
29:17
Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. At six and a half,
29:19
Speaker 3: you're like, I kind of want to take to the
29:20
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. It'll be all for me to argue
29:22
Speaker 3: on that, even though I know I have this modeled
29:24
Speaker 3: less than that, but it's seven. It's like we have
29:27
Speaker 3: to take this early Detroit. Is there is there any
29:29
Speaker 3: world where this goes to plus seven and a half?
29:31
Speaker 3: Like I just I can't see the books ever getting
29:33
Speaker 3: up there where I can see this going down to
29:35
Speaker 3: six six and a half towards the forty nine ers.
29:37
Speaker 3: So to me, if you want to get the best
29:40
Speaker 3: of the number. Now, it feels like the seven is
29:43
Speaker 3: the grab for this game.
29:47
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you. I did bet the
29:49
Speaker 1: six and eight Niners at six and a half.
29:55
Speaker 2: I saw it.
29:56
Speaker 1: I felt like it was going up to seven. It
29:59
Speaker 1: may come back down, but I felt like it might
30:03
Speaker 1: just level off at seven and not move like this.
30:08
Speaker 2: Chiefs Bills game kind of.
30:10
Speaker 1: It hit three for about a minute a couple times
30:13
Speaker 1: and basically settled at two and a half. In the
30:16
Speaker 1: lines this week did not move very much. It felt
30:19
Speaker 1: like money was coming in on both sides. I took
30:21
Speaker 1: the six and a half only because I wanted a
30:24
Speaker 1: little bit of a hedge on debo playing.
30:28
Speaker 2: I'm not overly committed to it.
30:30
Speaker 1: It was more just like I'm taking what I think
30:32
Speaker 1: I can get at the best possible number, and then
30:34
Speaker 1: I wanted to I can buy out of it if
30:36
Speaker 1: I have to.
30:37
Speaker 2: I don't feel that strongly about it yet, except I
30:39
Speaker 2: do like the.
30:40
Speaker 1: Niners to dominate if Deebo Samuel was playing, that's fair.
30:44
Speaker 1: Jared Goff against pressure. This has been his achilles heel
30:47
Speaker 1: for him all season long. Like he was number one
30:51
Speaker 1: rated quarterback I think according to PFF with a clean pocket,
30:56
Speaker 1: but twenty second when he was being blitzed. The Bucks
31:02
Speaker 1: blitzed on fifty two percent of his dropbacks. Yet he
31:07
Speaker 1: was only pressured in the pocket five times because he
31:12
Speaker 1: got the ball out of his hands so frequently, so quickly.
31:16
Speaker 1: Two and a half seconds the ball was out of
31:19
Speaker 1: his hands. So that's the good news for Jared Goff
31:22
Speaker 1: as he was making decisions against what he expected to
31:25
Speaker 1: be a lot of pressure. The Niners gift, though, is
31:30
Speaker 1: getting to the quarterback without blitzing. Third lowes splitz rate,
31:34
Speaker 1: fourth fewest blitzes in the NFL, but ninth most most
31:37
Speaker 1: in sacks.
31:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the fears we talked all seasons about. It
31:42
Speaker 3: is just the splits between him indoors and outdoors, right,
31:45
Speaker 3: just an outdoors game. We know that's that's a real thing.
31:48
Speaker 3: The splits are a real thing. But I just I
31:53
Speaker 3: just can't believe it's this big of a number, Like
31:54
Speaker 3: I'm shocked it's not four and a half, Like the
31:58
Speaker 3: four nine ers are really that good. They're that much
32:00
Speaker 3: better than the second place team in the NFC. It's
32:04
Speaker 3: just interesting the book opening up that much where it's like,
32:07
Speaker 3: you know, it feels like we got called within that
32:09
Speaker 3: Green Bay game. It's like we drank too much of
32:11
Speaker 3: the kool aid and that number was too big. It
32:13
Speaker 3: feels a little bit like the same here, but I
32:16
Speaker 3: can't fault you on it. It's like this, this offense,
32:18
Speaker 3: this Fortyniners offense, is the best of the season. Right
32:21
Speaker 3: there were number one almost every metric. So if Debo
32:24
Speaker 3: is healthy and all the guys are healthy, I'm sure
32:27
Speaker 3: me you're gonna go ahead ahead on this one.
32:29
Speaker 1: I think we are going to be I think you're listen,
32:32
Speaker 1: We've been doing this a long time. I know when
32:35
Speaker 1: you're trying to tell me that you think I'm an
32:37
Speaker 1: idiot without telling me I'm an idiot.
32:42
Speaker 3: I don't have enough confidence. I think you're an idiot
32:44
Speaker 3: right now.
32:44
Speaker 1: After trust How foolish of me then to right now
32:50
Speaker 1: be more confident than I've ever been in the Niners
32:53
Speaker 1: at minus six and a half is ridiculous. But listen,
33:00
Speaker 1: I'm not hot committed to this. This was a small
33:03
Speaker 1: taste just to get it at six and a half.
33:06
Speaker 1: In case I ultimately decided first instinct, there will be
33:12
Speaker 1: a lot of conversations over the next seven days before
33:17
Speaker 1: that game to really dig in and decide how we
33:19
Speaker 1: feel about that game.
33:21
Speaker 2: Simon, I know it's playoff time. Life is full of distractions.
33:26
Speaker 1: Right now in your world, but that's still not a
33:28
Speaker 1: good excuse for forgetting the fastest growing ticketing app in
33:31
Speaker 1: the United States.
33:32
Speaker 3: Can you name it game Time? Game Time?
33:36
Speaker 1: I love game Time for two reasons. One, they sponsored
33:38
Speaker 1: this show. Number two, I actually use game Time to
33:41
Speaker 1: buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on all
33:44
Speaker 1: sorts of tickets, including pro and college football games, speaking
33:47
Speaker 1: of which, I'm opening game Time right now from my
33:50
Speaker 1: house here in Connecticut. Oh boy, I can get into
33:54
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34:00
Speaker 1: reach twenty third less than seventy five bucks for quality
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Speaker 1: NBA action. No matter where you live, download the game
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Speaker 1: Time app, get out, have some fun this week.
34:10
Speaker 2: Go sweat your bets live and in person.
34:11
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34:14
Speaker 1: first purchase.
34:15
Speaker 2: Terms apply again.
34:16
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34:19
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34:21
Speaker 1: Kansas City Baltimore game was opening three and a half.
34:24
Speaker 1: If it's changed since we've been on air. I don't
34:28
Speaker 1: know because I haven't been able to check the lines
34:30
Speaker 1: if anyone wants to throw it in there, But any
34:34
Speaker 1: first instincts here, I have no I have no read
34:37
Speaker 1: on this game.
34:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Ravens like I hit a couple
34:41
Speaker 3: of three when it popped, and it's just like, all right,
34:44
Speaker 3: if it goes to three to two and a half,
34:46
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be all over the Ravens. And I already
34:49
Speaker 3: can hear a bunch of pros on my head telling me,
34:50
Speaker 3: how do you take Mahomes as a three and a
34:53
Speaker 3: half point dog? And like after last week, I'm not
34:56
Speaker 3: saying shit to them. I'll just I'm gonna let them
34:58
Speaker 3: make their bet. I'll just smile against them, be like,
35:00
Speaker 3: all right, take take Mahomes at three and a half.
35:03
Speaker 3: Like it's just I got no idea how it's working.
35:07
Speaker 3: Like that Bill's game. It couldn't have gone any better
35:11
Speaker 3: for that Mahomes offense. So uh, if he does it
35:14
Speaker 3: against Baltimore, I'll be shocked. Like I'm again, I'm willing
35:19
Speaker 3: to put my money up that he's not gonna do
35:20
Speaker 3: it against Baltimore again. So, like you said, we're gonna
35:23
Speaker 3: break it down at crazy like levels this whole week.
35:26
Speaker 3: But my first instinct is grab the three if you can.
35:30
Speaker 3: On the Ravens. I just I just feel like the
35:32
Speaker 3: professionals will be on that side, like it's a good
35:34
Speaker 3: matchup for their defense. Like we haven't really died into it,
35:36
Speaker 3: but their defense matches up well about just as well
35:40
Speaker 3: as you can against a Chiefs team where you can
35:42
Speaker 3: put Kyle Hamilton, who's long enough, fast enough to cover
35:45
Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey, and then just have to you know, different
35:48
Speaker 3: guys spot Mahomes like they have the players that they're
35:51
Speaker 3: really they do do matchup well against them. Now you
35:54
Speaker 3: factoring that Mark Andrews should be back, Humphreys, their number
35:58
Speaker 3: one corner hopefully is back for this Ravens team, Like
36:01
Speaker 3: it just lines up where they should win this game.
36:04
Speaker 3: And we all heard the stat in that Bills game, right,
36:07
Speaker 3: the Chiefs have given up over five yards per carry
36:09
Speaker 3: this season, like they do struggle against the run. The
36:12
Speaker 3: Bills went away from it. I don't know why, but
36:15
Speaker 3: they were removing the ball whenever they want it on
36:16
Speaker 3: the ground, and then you know, by the end of
36:19
Speaker 3: that third quarter they kind of switch it up and
36:20
Speaker 3: stop running it as much. It didn't really make sense.
36:22
Speaker 3: I don't really think the Rams will get away from
36:24
Speaker 3: that's kind of their identity. Even that opening touchdown drive
36:28
Speaker 3: by Lamar in that second half, right, he was using
36:30
Speaker 3: his legs like we knew. He didn't need to force
36:32
Speaker 3: it with his arm. He can just pull it down
36:34
Speaker 3: and run. So, yeah, if you can get the three,
36:38
Speaker 3: I would grab that. But yeah, this is one where
36:41
Speaker 3: I could be flipped in that forty nine Ers Lions game.
36:44
Speaker 3: This one, I'm not gonna be flipped on. Like I'm
36:46
Speaker 3: pretty dug in on this one. I have this at
36:48
Speaker 3: four and a half. I think you're getting a good
36:50
Speaker 3: number three and a half. I'd rather you get the
36:52
Speaker 3: three though, because, like to me, three, three is such
36:54
Speaker 3: a key number. We want to get that for a
36:57
Speaker 3: lot of reasons. Because Mahomes we've seen it. Mames is
37:02
Speaker 3: the kind of guy where you can't kill him, Like
37:05
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter if you're up, what the score is.
37:08
Speaker 3: He's gonna keep swinging, he's gonna keep fighting. So I
37:11
Speaker 3: get why they're pros are gonna comeing to take a
37:12
Speaker 3: three and a half. But I just think that the
37:15
Speaker 3: Ravens are the right side to me.
37:18
Speaker 2: You know, one of the things we talked a lot
37:19
Speaker 2: about with the Bills.
37:22
Speaker 1: That worried me the most for this game was they
37:26
Speaker 1: had nobody who could defend the middle of the field,
37:29
Speaker 1: right and even today they only lined up they only
37:32
Speaker 1: suited up four linebackers, went down to three linebackers for
37:36
Speaker 1: a couple of plays because the one guy they had
37:38
Speaker 1: playing middle linebacker calling the players was aj Klein who
37:40
Speaker 1: was on the street. And in the broadcast they did
37:45
Speaker 1: a lot of diagramming to show you how the Chiefs
37:50
Speaker 1: were scheming their plays for Travis Kelcey to take advantage
37:56
Speaker 1: like running sort of using the leverage to play against
38:00
Speaker 1: the inside players not the outside players. And that is
38:04
Speaker 1: one thing I don't think you'll be able to do
38:07
Speaker 1: against Patrick Queen and Rokwan Smith. They're just there's not
38:12
Speaker 1: a conversation between the linebackers from the Ravens and the linebackers.
38:16
Speaker 3: For the Bills. Yeah, I totally agree with that.
38:20
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll dig much much deeper into that
38:23
Speaker 1: one on Tuesday when we come back.
38:27
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