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US Election Preview 2024 · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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Speaker 2: Let's sit down to Washington, DC's talk a little bit
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Speaker 2: of policy here, and we could do that with Nathan Dean.
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Speaker 2: He's a Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst. Nathan, what's the
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Speaker 2: feeling in DC as the rest of the country starts
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Speaker 2: going to the polls here? Anybody any smart money leaning
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Speaker 2: one way or the other? Or is it, as most
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Speaker 2: folks suggest, really too close to call at this point.
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Speaker 3: So I think it's too close to call on the
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Speaker 3: presidential race and then the House race. I think essentially
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Speaker 3: I could think I can tell you who I think
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Speaker 3: is going to win, but then I have to give
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Speaker 3: you a five minute explanation, and if I do that,
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Speaker 3: I'm not really explaining anything. But what we can say
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Speaker 3: is is that we generally think the Republicans are going
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Speaker 3: to take the Senate. Why this is a very difficult
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Speaker 3: race for the Democrats. They're defending twenty three out of
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Speaker 3: the thirty four seats out there, Senator Joe Manchin is resigning.
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Speaker 3: The Republicans are gonna most likely take bust Virginia. They
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Speaker 3: could potentially take Montana as well. You know, Senator John
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Speaker 3: Tester is not doing so well there in the polling wise,
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Speaker 3: But why does that matter? What it means that if
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Speaker 3: President Trump wins, a deregulatory effort can happen much quicker.
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Speaker 3: And if Kamala Harris wins, it means the Republicans can
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Speaker 3: effectively block under jam up a lot of her nominees
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Speaker 3: for their own regulatory efforts. But just on the main
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Speaker 3: thing of who's gonna win the race, We're gonna have
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Speaker 3: to wait until tonight.
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Speaker 4: What are the implications for investors here and for markets?
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Speaker 4: You know, what kind of results could we be hearing
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Speaker 4: in the next few days that would move the market
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Speaker 4: that investors would need to know about.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, So we were trying to think of like the
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Speaker 3: major catalysts of what happens if you get a Harris
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Speaker 3: victory versus a Trump victory. The first one is tariff's
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Speaker 3: I mean, we think that the tariffs are going to
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Speaker 3: come no matter who wins the president next year. But
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Speaker 3: is it a broad tarot tariff sixty percent on all
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Speaker 3: goods coming from China or a very small subset. So
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Speaker 3: once you decide, once we figure out who the president is,
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Speaker 3: will know what the tariff outlook look likes for next year.
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Speaker 3: The other thing is investment banks. If Kamala Harris wins
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Speaker 3: the Buzzle three end game, a rule that increases capital
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Speaker 3: about nine percent for the banks, well must likely go forward.
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Speaker 3: If President Trump wins, that's not gonna happen. The Inflation
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Speaker 3: Reduction Act mostly cemented if Kamala Harris wins, could be tweaked.
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Speaker 3: So if you have exposure to renewables and the renewables industry,
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Speaker 3: that's something to keep in mind. And then the last
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Speaker 3: thing is is that if the Republicans have a great
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Speaker 3: night and take the House, the Senate, and the presidency,
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Speaker 3: then the opportunity for reconciliation for massive tax reform next
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Speaker 3: year think multi trillion dollar tax reform at the tail
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Speaker 3: end of twenty twenty five. That comes to play if
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Speaker 3: the Republicans have a great night.
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Speaker 2: If President former President Trump were to win, what would
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Speaker 2: he do on day one? Would he be a just
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Speaker 2: doing tariffs across the board, because that is something that
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Speaker 2: a president can do.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know, President Trump, if you look at
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Speaker 3: the executive orders now, our view is is that i'd
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Speaker 3: say about eighty five percent of executive orders are symbolic
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Speaker 3: in nature. It's the fancy way of the president picking
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Speaker 3: up the phone and directing to his or her staff
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Speaker 3: do something either legit slate route or the regular toy route.
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Speaker 3: But the power of the presidency is more powerful in
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Speaker 3: that other fifteen percent, and that's national security, foreign relations, tariffs,
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Speaker 3: and trade. Now, Congress is largely delegated tariffs to the president,
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Speaker 3: and there's some thought out there that, you know, President
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Speaker 3: Trump would need congressional authorization. Our view is is that
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Speaker 3: there's a lot that he could do nilatterally, and so
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Speaker 3: if President Trump comes in day one, expect those executive
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Speaker 3: orders to come out. Now, when it comes to tariff,
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Speaker 3: I think you would see the red line come across
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Speaker 3: the Bloomberg terminal and say, you know, President Trump's signs
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Speaker 3: executive order on tariff. Within the language of that tariff
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Speaker 3: executive order, though there'd be languages essentially saying this won't
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Speaker 3: go into fruition for another two hundred seventy days or
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Speaker 3: three hundred and sixty five days. Why, it's a negotiation tool,
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Speaker 3: and presidents don't want to back themselves up into corners.
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Speaker 3: They want the flexibility to see what the reciprocal tariff
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Speaker 3: would look like before it actually goes into fruition. So
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Speaker 3: there's a little bit of headline risk there, but the
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Speaker 3: ultimate impact of a tariff, if President Trump wins, would
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Speaker 3: probably be in the second or third quarter of next year.
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Speaker 4: And Nathan, what are you going to be watching for
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Speaker 4: policy wise with the l duck president if we do
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Speaker 4: find out a winner, let's say this week or even
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Speaker 4: next week.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's hard to believe we're talking about
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Speaker 3: lame duck, but Congress comes back next week. And so
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Speaker 3: there are a couple things that the lobbyists around town
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Speaker 3: are all love and see if they can get this attached,
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Speaker 3: because remember we have a government funding fight coming up
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Speaker 3: in December. Now, there's two things that we're really looking on.
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Speaker 5: First as stable coins.
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Speaker 3: Now, there's this idea that there's a stable coin bill
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Speaker 3: that get passed during the lame duck. I may be
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Speaker 3: a little bit out of consensus. I don't think it's
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Speaker 3: going to happen. I think it's they're going to push
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Speaker 3: the can to twenty twenty five because lame ducks are
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Speaker 3: always optimistic from the lobbyist perspective, but when the reality
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Speaker 3: hits and most people just want to go home because
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Speaker 3: the election's over, they usually don't tend to have much
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Speaker 3: outs there. The other thing I would just note is
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Speaker 3: Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois will most likely try to
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Speaker 3: reattach his bill called the Credit Card Competition Act. If
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Speaker 3: you've flown through La Guardia Newark, you may have seen
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Speaker 3: the ads about these credit card This bill taking away
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Speaker 3: credit card points associated with airlines and so for like that.
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Speaker 3: Like this this would open up competition in terms of
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Speaker 3: networks on credit cards. Again, some headline risk there. I
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Speaker 3: don't think it's going to happen though. I think again
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Speaker 3: they'll get kicked to twenty twenty five, but certainly something
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Speaker 3: we have to pay attention to.
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Speaker 2: All Right, Nathan, thank you so much. We appreciate it.
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Speaker 2: Nathan Dean, he's a senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Speaker 2: He's down there in Washington, DC. He and his Tim team,
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Speaker 2: they really focus on policies coming out of Congress and
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Speaker 2: which industries and then maybe down to the company levels
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Speaker 2: which will be impacted. And that's the research that he
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Speaker 2: and his team do, and it's widely valued by Bloomberg
5:28
Speaker 2: customers because we know many many industries are heavily regulated
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Speaker 2: and dependent upon government policy. So it's good to have
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Speaker 2: Nathan Dean and his team down there in TC.
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5:56
Speaker 2: Let's get back to this election here. Henrietta Trez has
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Speaker 2: been a valued a source for us all things politics
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Speaker 2: here for a long time. We appreciate getting a few
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Speaker 2: minutes or a time. She's managing partner and director of
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Speaker 2: Economic policy at Vada Partners. Henrietta, we've got early votes.
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Speaker 2: Is there anything we can glean from early voting? And
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Speaker 2: if so, which states should we kind of look at?
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Speaker 7: Yeah, we do have early votes.
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Speaker 8: I think there's really only two states that I feel
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Speaker 8: comfortable saying or giving us strong indications right now, and
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Speaker 8: they're both very promising for Donald Trump. I think in
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Speaker 8: Nevada and in North Carolina, the early vote turnout. The
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Speaker 8: get out the vote initiative that the Trump campaign has
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Speaker 8: embraced this year, unlike the last cycle, is really for
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Speaker 8: in person early voting, and both states have done that
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Speaker 8: in droves, and we're seeing that sort of nationwide and
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Speaker 8: all the early voting, a lot of rural Republican voters
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Speaker 8: have turned out much larger numbers than we saw either
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Speaker 8: in twenty twenty two or in twenty twenty. So his
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Speaker 8: supporters are definitely getting the email and the memo about
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Speaker 8: getting out there early.
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Speaker 4: So does that change your forecast at all for who
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Speaker 4: actually is going to win the electoral college? Because if
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Speaker 4: I'm reading the notes, your most recent forecast was that
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Speaker 4: president or Vice President Harris would actually win the electoral college.
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Speaker 7: That's right.
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Speaker 8: So the early vote is telling me that the electoral
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Speaker 8: college map that I have passed out for each candidate
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Speaker 8: is still holding strong and looks correct. So I expect
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Speaker 8: Donald Trump to win Nevada. I expect Donald Trump to
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Speaker 8: win North Carolina and Georgia. The two of the last
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Speaker 8: two are pickups. Arizona, Georgia and North Nevada are all
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Speaker 8: pickups for Donald Trump this year that I'm expecting.
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Speaker 7: And that's what early voting is showing. There's a lot
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Speaker 7: of different opinion out there.
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Speaker 8: John Ralston, who is excellent in Nevada, is saying that
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Speaker 8: sorry couple areas is going to win by zero point
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Speaker 8: three percent in Nevada. And of course Democrats have eked
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Speaker 8: out wins in the state of Nevada for the last
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Speaker 8: two cycles, and that's based off of sort of the
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Speaker 8: legacy if they Harry Reid machine, and Jackie Rosen continues
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Speaker 8: to pull well ahead of her competitor in the state.
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Speaker 8: At the Senate level, what you're seeing in Nevada and
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Speaker 8: Arizona is actually that fifteen percent of the Republican constituency
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Speaker 8: in those two states are voting for the Democratic Senate candidate.
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Speaker 8: So if there's crossover that early vote can't pick up.
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Speaker 8: I don't know how you voted, I just know that
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Speaker 8: you did vote. If there's crossover amongst Republicans into the
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Speaker 8: Harris camp, that is a that's going to be a
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Speaker 8: surprise that is not registered either in the polls, which
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Speaker 8: are finding everything sort of neck and neck, and it's
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Speaker 8: not going to be something that we know from the
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Speaker 8: early vote, because we don't know how you voted, so
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Speaker 8: that could be a shift that we see on election night,
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Speaker 8: But my expectation that they both go for Trump. But overarchingly,
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Speaker 8: I still anticipate that Harris will win Michigan, Wisconsin, and
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Speaker 8: Pennsylvania and that gets her two hundred and seventy Electoral
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Speaker 8: College votes, and that's why my odds are sixty percent that.
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Speaker 7: She will win.
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Speaker 2: Interesting, Henriette, we had a poll come out in the
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Speaker 2: last couple days from the state of Iowa that was
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Speaker 2: surprising for a lot of people showing that Vice President
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Speaker 2: Harris doing a leading in next which typically is a
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Speaker 2: Republican state. What did you make of that poll in
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Speaker 2: that What does that tell you?
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Speaker 8: You know, it really reinforces the story of this election cycle.
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Speaker 8: There's been a tremendous amount of focus on the black
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Speaker 8: and Latino youth vote, and specifically the youth mail vote,
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Speaker 8: and how there's been a draw away from the Democratic
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Speaker 8: Party and towards the Republican Party. What I think that
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Speaker 8: whole conversation has missed is that the story of elections
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Speaker 8: is really the suburbs. The suburbs vote the most, They
9:31
Speaker 8: are the arbiters of the election cycle. So in twenty sixteen,
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Speaker 8: they swung four points for Donald Trump. In twenty twenty,
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Speaker 8: they swung two points for Joe Biden, and they decided
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Speaker 8: the outcome of the election. Right now, in critical states
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Speaker 8: like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia suburbs are going strongly for
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Speaker 8: Kamala Harris. And so the story of the Seltzer poll
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Speaker 8: I thought was fascinating. The twenty three percent of the
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Speaker 8: Iowa voters in the suburbs plus twenty three for Kamala Harris.
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Speaker 8: That's an indicat that the suburb story is correct, and
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Speaker 8: I think we can translate that nationwide. I don't expect
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Speaker 8: Tamala Hiris to win Iowa, but the story of the
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Speaker 8: suburbs is what I really want to focus on when
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Speaker 8: I see that poll and then transcribe to swing states.
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Speaker 4: How of each candidates kind of catered toward towards that
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Speaker 4: suburban vote. Are there certain issues that you study that
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Speaker 4: resonate more with the suburban voters that the candidates have
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Speaker 4: been I guess trying to touch on democracy.
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Speaker 8: This concept of democracy being on the ballot is a
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Speaker 8: really big deal in the suburbs. They think that that
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Speaker 8: issue is critical and then beyond that you have abortion
10:37
Speaker 8: that Democrats try to hammer home, and on the right
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Speaker 8: you have immigration.
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Speaker 7: It's really those top three issues.
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Speaker 8: The economy is important, but it's such a misleading or
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Speaker 8: misguiding polling question these days because your view of the
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Speaker 8: economy is mostly defined by whether you support Joe Biden
10:55
Speaker 8: or Donald Trump Biden's administration or Trump on the camp
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Speaker 8: pay trail. So if you side with either of those
11:02
Speaker 8: two parties, that dictates your view of how the economy
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Speaker 8: is going. I think once now that inflation has been
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Speaker 8: tamped down and gas prices are back well below their
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Speaker 8: twenty twenty two levels and are down now to three
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Speaker 8: dollars or less nationwide on average, it's an opportunity for
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Speaker 8: the two campaigns to talk about other issues besides just
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Speaker 8: the economy, and we see abortion, immigration leading.
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Speaker 7: And then democracy in these suburbs is really critical.
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Speaker 2: And we had a summer suggesting that we may not
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Speaker 2: know the winner of the presidential race for days. Isn't
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Speaker 2: that in and of itself a problem for the US
11:38
Speaker 2: should in our country, with our technology, be able to
11:41
Speaker 2: know almost in real time kind of how the voting's going.
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Speaker 2: I just don't understand where it feels it feels like
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Speaker 2: our system is so antiquated.
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Speaker 8: I completely agree, and I think it's a great point
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Speaker 8: to make. Right now, Why can't we start counting ballots
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Speaker 8: the second that they start coming in? You know, I
11:57
Speaker 8: think that's a little frustrating. So you have a state
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Speaker 8: like pennsylvani where all these poll workers and they have
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Speaker 8: so many this year that are you know, really doing
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Speaker 8: the large work. They're you know, they're early, they're expanding
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Speaker 8: voting hours, and they are you ready to put those
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Speaker 8: ballots through the machine to have them read. We should
12:16
Speaker 8: definitely be capable of starting that early. They had the
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Speaker 8: opportunity in the last couple of years with all these
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Speaker 8: different refinements in the ballot process and collecting and changing
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Speaker 8: of laws like we've seen in Georgia, for example, they're
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Speaker 8: going to start reporting out different county data at eight pm,
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Speaker 8: which is going to be one of our first arbiters
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Speaker 8: of how the night is going.
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Speaker 7: But I completely agree. I wish they could move this along.
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Speaker 5: Yeah.
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Speaker 2: Interesting, I'm sure some kid in garage that in Palalatha
12:41
Speaker 2: could come up the napp and like, you know, a day.
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Speaker 2: Henrietta Trez, thank you so much for joining us. Henriette.
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Speaker 2: It has been so helpful to us during this whole
12:48
Speaker 2: election process. She's a managing partner and director of Economic
12:51
Speaker 2: Policy and VATA Partners. She is down there in New Orleans,
12:54
Speaker 2: I believe Louisiana's where she's Basically.
12:57
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence part Catch us live
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13:12
Speaker 2: Damily Graffeo sitting in for Alex Steel on Pulse when
13:15
Speaker 2: you were live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio.
13:18
Speaker 2: Complete coverage of this election throughout the day, markets, trading, hires,
13:23
Speaker 2: John is just reporting. Let's check in with Jennifer Lawless.
13:26
Speaker 2: She's a professor at the University of Virginia. Did you
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Speaker 2: arrange this? Is this you're doing? This was a pleasant
13:33
Speaker 2: spri very good. Emily Graffeo was also a proud graduate
13:37
Speaker 2: of the University of Virginia down in Charlottesville. Jennifer, what
13:40
Speaker 2: are you looking for today? What should we are our listeners,
13:44
Speaker 2: our viewers, what should they be paying attention to today?
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Speaker 9: Well, The most important thing is that every listener who
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Speaker 9: hasn't already cast a ballot go out and vote. And
13:54
Speaker 9: looking at the length of those lines, just getting a
13:57
Speaker 9: sense of the enthusiasm at the polling places, I think
14:00
Speaker 9: will at least let people know whether this is going
14:02
Speaker 9: to be a high turnout election or not.
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Speaker 7: But we're really not going to know.
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Speaker 9: Anything until this evening, when the polls close and the
14:08
Speaker 9: early signs will be in North Carolina and Georgia.
14:11
Speaker 4: What are we hearing so far? I guess how are
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Speaker 4: you understanding the closing messages from both candidates? I know
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Speaker 4: that Trump is set to speak at eleven am.
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Speaker 2: Perhaps it's uncertain, so we'll see.
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Speaker 4: So but what are we understanding right now? Professor Lawllace
14:28
Speaker 4: about the closing messages from both candidates.
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Speaker 9: Well, it seems to me that the closing messages for
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Speaker 9: the Harris campaign are the messages that she's been conveying
14:37
Speaker 9: for the last ninety or one hundred days. She's been
14:39
Speaker 9: very disciplined and on script, and that's basically that it's
14:42
Speaker 9: time to turn a new page. If people want new leadership,
14:45
Speaker 9: if they want a new generation, if they want new policies.
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Speaker 9: Kamala Harris is the way forward, and Donald Trump is
14:51
Speaker 9: basically trying to make the case that the Biden Harris
14:54
Speaker 9: administration broke it and he can fix it. It's a
14:57
Speaker 9: challenge for him, obviously, both because he has a hard
14:59
Speaker 9: time stay on message, but also because he's been president already,
15:03
Speaker 9: so he's trying to portray himself as the change candidate
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Speaker 9: and she's trying to portray him as the incumbent.
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Speaker 2: Jennifer, how long are we gonna have to wait, you
15:13
Speaker 2: believe for the presidential election to be called? I mean,
15:16
Speaker 2: this is going to be a dicey situation from what
15:19
Speaker 2: we understand because of some of the mail inboundings, and
15:22
Speaker 2: just because it's so close.
15:24
Speaker 9: It's difficult to know. But if Harris performs well or
15:28
Speaker 9: wins in North Carolina or Georgia, it's hard to see
15:31
Speaker 9: a Trump victory, and then we would likely know early.
15:34
Speaker 7: We would probably know by tomorrow.
15:36
Speaker 9: If Donald Trump wins in North Carolina and Georgia, both
15:39
Speaker 9: of which are states that he's been actively campaigning in
15:42
Speaker 9: and Republicans typically win, then it could go on for
15:45
Speaker 9: a lot longer because we're going to have to wait
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Speaker 9: for all of the counting in Pennsylvania and perhaps Arizona,
15:50
Speaker 9: both of which are notoriously slow and don't start counting
15:53
Speaker 9: until late.
15:55
Speaker 4: You have written a number of books that have to
15:58
Speaker 4: do with gender and politics, and I'm wondering, when you
16:02
Speaker 4: look at this presidential race, to what extent has gender
16:08
Speaker 4: played a role? Have you been surprised? I guess maybe
16:13
Speaker 4: about the lack of gender roles. At least it seems
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Speaker 4: like Vice President Harris has not played up as much
16:23
Speaker 4: that she is a woman running, and she has perhaps
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Speaker 4: brought up other issues a little bit more. But I'm
16:27
Speaker 4: wondering what you think that's right.
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Speaker 9: Kamala Harris has not played into the breaking the glass ceiling.
16:33
Speaker 9: She would be the first woman in the White House
16:35
Speaker 9: narrative that we saw very prominently featured in the twenty
16:38
Speaker 9: sixteen campaign of Hillary Clinton. But gender is still very
16:42
Speaker 9: very significant this selection cycle. Not only do we have
16:45
Speaker 9: a substantial gender gap where women are more likely than
16:47
Speaker 9: men to prefer Harris and men are significantly more likely
16:50
Speaker 9: than women to prefer Trump, but the issues on the
16:53
Speaker 9: agenda have also been speaking specifically to gendered roles in
16:57
Speaker 9: gendered concerns, and so the Harris campaign, for a example,
17:00
Speaker 9: has really been highlighting reproductive rights and freedom and abortion
17:04
Speaker 9: rights and what a Trump administration would mean for women's
17:07
Speaker 9: bodily autonomy and the Trump administer The Trump campaign has
17:11
Speaker 9: basically seeded a lot of those female swing voters and
17:14
Speaker 9: has tried very very hard to motivate young men, especially
17:18
Speaker 9: those between the ages of eighteen and twenty nine, to
17:20
Speaker 9: come out and vote under this threat of their country
17:23
Speaker 9: being taken away from them. So, even though the sex
17:26
Speaker 9: of the candidate hasn't been as prominently featured in the
17:29
Speaker 9: campaign narratives, the issues and the vuying for male versus
17:33
Speaker 9: female voters has been on high display.
17:36
Speaker 2: Jennifer Below the presidential election down ballot, what are the
17:40
Speaker 2: key races for you?
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Speaker 9: The key Senate races to watch are John Tester in Montana.
17:46
Speaker 9: If he somehow manages to hold on, then it's going
17:49
Speaker 9: to be a very good night for the Democrats and
17:51
Speaker 9: Colin already vying against Ted Cruz in Texas. If already
17:55
Speaker 9: manages to knock out Ted Cruz, that would be the
17:57
Speaker 9: shocker of the night. It's likely that the it will
18:00
Speaker 9: go Republican, but there are a couple of indicators that
18:03
Speaker 9: could be harbingers of success for Democrats.
18:08
Speaker 4: So what is the What does a professor of politics
18:12
Speaker 4: at the University of Virginia do an election night? Do
18:15
Speaker 4: you stay up all night and hope that a decision
18:19
Speaker 4: comes in or do you just go to sleep and
18:23
Speaker 4: know that this is going to take a while because
18:25
Speaker 4: I'm wondering, like what we should what we should all
18:27
Speaker 4: be doing?
18:29
Speaker 9: Well, I committed to you guys for five ten am
18:32
Speaker 9: tomorrow morning, so a lot of sleep will not be had.
18:36
Speaker 9: But yeah, I mean it's basically the election day is
18:41
Speaker 9: where it all comes to an end. There's nothing to
18:42
Speaker 9: do anymore, there's nothing to watch, there are no events,
18:45
Speaker 9: there are no final you know, strategies to assess. This
18:48
Speaker 9: is it, and so once the returns start coming in,
18:51
Speaker 9: it's just a matter of watching and trying to analyze
18:53
Speaker 9: the results of the exit polls that are released and
18:56
Speaker 9: getting a better sense of where the numbers are. But
18:59
Speaker 9: if we look back to twenty twenty, I don't think
19:01
Speaker 9: I slept for five days. The winner wasn't announced until Saturday.
19:04
Speaker 9: So it's just a matter of watching those ticking screens
19:06
Speaker 9: the same way that everybody else does and trying to
19:09
Speaker 9: figure out what's going on. But I would tell people
19:11
Speaker 9: that you know, if Harris doesn't win North Carolina or
19:15
Speaker 9: Georgia early, they can go to sleep because we're not
19:17
Speaker 9: going to know tonight.
19:18
Speaker 2: All right, Jennifer, thank you so much for joining us.
19:20
Speaker 2: Jennifer Lawless, she's a professor at the University of Virginia.
19:24
Speaker 2: Joining us from Charlottesville via zoom.
19:27
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
19:31
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19:34
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19:36
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19:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, Mylikafreo sitting in for Alex steel On Paul Sweeneyer
19:48
Speaker 2: live here from a Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio in New
19:50
Speaker 2: York City to our world wide audience streaming live on
19:53
Speaker 2: YouTube as well. All right, Swing States, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,
19:56
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada. Do we just look at the
19:59
Speaker 2: state or do you drill down even more to maybe
20:02
Speaker 2: local towns or local counties and to see how this
20:05
Speaker 2: thing is going to go. I have no idea what
20:06
Speaker 2: our next guest does. David Paleologus, director of the Political
20:10
Speaker 2: Research Center at Suffolk University, joining us from Boston, mass
20:14
Speaker 2: via that zoom thing. David, again, we know the swing states.
20:18
Speaker 2: Do you go even more granular to look at certain
20:20
Speaker 2: parts of the states, certain towns? How do you do it?
20:24
Speaker 10: Yeah, we do, and we've gone mainstream with the weather
20:28
Speaker 10: model of the bellweathers are areas that correctly predict where
20:32
Speaker 10: the statewide vote is going to go. I just tweeted
20:35
Speaker 10: a list in the swing states, so what counties or
20:38
Speaker 10: cities to take a look at. But the first three
20:41
Speaker 10: states that you mentioned, Paul, are really the ground zero Pennsylvania, Michigan,
20:46
Speaker 10: and Wisconsin. According to a lot of the aggregator models
20:50
Speaker 10: they have wascon they have Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina
20:55
Speaker 10: attacking toward Trump. So that puts a lot more pressure
20:59
Speaker 10: on those three Russ spelt states. And within those states,
21:02
Speaker 10: we're looking at specific counties, as.
21:05
Speaker 4: You say, and what makes a county worthy of an
21:10
Speaker 4: extra eye. I know that you've written Northampton, Erie in Pennsylvania,
21:16
Speaker 4: Kent in Michigan, What specifically about those counties makes them
21:21
Speaker 4: worthy of watching so closely?
21:24
Speaker 10: So it's a proprietary model, but Generally speaking, what we
21:28
Speaker 10: look for is, does the county flip when the state
21:33
Speaker 10: flips or vice versa from Democrat to Republican back to
21:37
Speaker 10: Democrat A and B. When it does flip, does the
21:43
Speaker 10: county vote close to as close to perfect accurately reflect
21:49
Speaker 10: what the actual percentages were when the flip happened. So
21:54
Speaker 10: it has to not only just flip. It can't flip
21:56
Speaker 10: sixty forty and it'll be a two percent flip on
21:59
Speaker 10: the state. It has to be if it flips and
22:02
Speaker 10: it shows a candidate winning by three or four, the
22:05
Speaker 10: state should show the same. So, and there are a
22:08
Speaker 10: bunch of other indices that we use in our screening process.
22:12
Speaker 10: But those counties, when you're watching tonight and you're hovering
22:15
Speaker 10: your mouse over the map and you're looking at your
22:18
Speaker 10: own sort of prediction of how the states are going
22:21
Speaker 10: to vote, Northampton and Erie have been remarkably prescient in
22:25
Speaker 10: terms of predicting the state wide outcomes in Pennsylvania, as
22:30
Speaker 10: has Kent and Door County in Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively.
22:35
Speaker 2: David our last guest, had the prediction I guess Harris
22:39
Speaker 2: two and seventy electoral votes Trump two at sixty eight.
22:43
Speaker 2: Do you guys Suffolk have a similar type of prediction
22:46
Speaker 2: or you're none in that business.
22:48
Speaker 10: So we don't model. We do poll and we give
22:52
Speaker 10: our information out to the public and it's consumed by
22:55
Speaker 10: aggregators like Nate Silver and five thirty eight and Tie
23:00
Speaker 10: Cook and Larry Sabateow and they take our information with
23:03
Speaker 10: others and they run their own models. But it's a
23:07
Speaker 10: really close race, you know. And I can tell you
23:09
Speaker 10: that just by virtue of polling some of these bell
23:12
Speaker 10: weather areas. And what I'll be looking at though, is
23:16
Speaker 10: maybe a little bit different. I'm gonna be looking at
23:19
Speaker 10: New Hampshire first off, because we're gonna get New Hampshire
23:21
Speaker 10: numbers fairly quickly, and it's got an evenly balanced party affiliation.
23:27
Speaker 10: And in Biden one on New Hampshire in twenty twenty
23:29
Speaker 10: by seven and a half points. Kamala Harris wins by
23:32
Speaker 10: between six and nine points, no need to worry about
23:37
Speaker 10: New Hampshire. But if she wins by twelve or ten
23:40
Speaker 10: in New Hampshire, that signals to me that independents who
23:44
Speaker 10: really make up the undecided, it's a swinging blue and
23:47
Speaker 10: you could see that reverberate across the country. If Harris
23:52
Speaker 10: only wins by one, two or three, will loses New Hampshire.
23:56
Speaker 10: I think the opposite could be to it. You could
23:58
Speaker 10: see Trump carrying in some of those other states. So
24:01
Speaker 10: I'm going to keep a little bit of an eye
24:03
Speaker 10: on New Hampshire and how those results are coming in.
24:06
Speaker 10: And I've also listed a couple of the bellwether towns
24:10
Speaker 10: in New Hampshire. Hampton is one of them in Jaffrey,
24:14
Speaker 10: New Hampshire.
24:16
Speaker 4: I know it's so hard to tell right now, but
24:19
Speaker 4: what is your sense for just how long the counting
24:24
Speaker 4: is going to take and how many days we'll have
24:26
Speaker 4: to wait to see when these results come out.
24:30
Speaker 10: Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I think we're going
24:32
Speaker 10: to be pleasantly surprised. I think, you know, there's a
24:37
Speaker 10: lot of trusts in our national poll of local precinct warden.
24:41
Speaker 10: People have a lot of trust in their own local
24:44
Speaker 10: community's ability to process and count votes, and I think
24:49
Speaker 10: they don't want to lose that trust, and so I
24:52
Speaker 10: think they're taking great pains to try and improve the
24:55
Speaker 10: efficiency of their own operations. They improved a little bit
24:59
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. I think they'll do a little
25:00
Speaker 10: bit better. I hope it doesn't carry on for days
25:05
Speaker 10: and weeks, and I think, you know, I think we're
25:09
Speaker 10: going to have at least due diligence on the part
25:12
Speaker 10: of the counting process as best we can. So I'm
25:16
Speaker 10: hopeful that it will only be a day tops or two,
25:20
Speaker 10: not weeks.
25:22
Speaker 2: David, thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate getting
25:24
Speaker 2: your perspective. David Palio Logos, director of the Political Research
25:28
Speaker 2: Center at Suffolk University. Again, they're one of the sources
25:32
Speaker 2: for a lot of this polling data for the folks
25:34
Speaker 2: that are in the business of making predictions. So we'll
25:38
Speaker 2: see how it goes. But again, the message has been
25:41
Speaker 2: very clear, too close to call here, so I'll be
25:44
Speaker 2: interested to see how the networks handle it this evening
25:46
Speaker 2: in terms of kind of what we've been you know,
25:48
Speaker 2: I kind of grew up with you kind of knew
25:49
Speaker 2: this stuff by nine or ten o'clock and networks were
25:51
Speaker 2: making the call, and I'm not sure we're in that
25:53
Speaker 2: environment this year.
25:54
Speaker 4: It's so interesting to see just how carefully these pollsters
25:59
Speaker 4: and these as data scientists zoom in to counties. Yeah,
26:03
Speaker 4: it's just really incredible, and.
26:05
Speaker 2: It's also incredible is I don't know. I have to
26:07
Speaker 2: see how accurate they are or not.
26:09
Speaker 1: Coming forward, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch
26:15
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar.
26:18
Speaker 6: Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
26:21
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
26:30
Speaker 2: It is Emily Grafoe sitting in for Alex Steel. I'm
26:32
Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney. You're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brooker
26:34
Speaker 2: Studio and our streaming live on YouTube as well as
26:36
Speaker 2: to check us out there at Bloomberg Podcast is where
26:39
Speaker 2: you can go search for us. You know, every cycle,
26:42
Speaker 2: every election cycle, seems to one of the key key
26:45
Speaker 2: issues is always it's the economy. You know, focus on
26:48
Speaker 2: the economy. Are you better off now than you were
26:50
Speaker 2: four years ago? And so on and so forth. Our
26:52
Speaker 2: next guest thinks about that stuff as well. Christopher Smart,
26:54
Speaker 2: managing partner in our Growth group and former Special Assistant
26:57
Speaker 2: to the President for International Economics, join us from Boston, Massachusetts,
27:01
Speaker 2: via that Zoom thing. Christopher, how again too close to call?
27:05
Speaker 2: We get all that how are you kind of framing
27:09
Speaker 2: out this election and kind of the risk and opportunities
27:12
Speaker 2: just from an economic policy perspective.
27:16
Speaker 11: Well, I think, as you were mentioning earlier, the market
27:20
Speaker 11: really does focus also, by the way, on the economics.
27:23
Speaker 11: And weirdly, as all of our political tools to predict
27:27
Speaker 11: the outcome of this election seem to be failing us today,
27:31
Speaker 11: the economic data seems like it's actually painting a pretty
27:34
Speaker 11: consistent picture.
27:36
Speaker 5: Good growth, low.
27:37
Speaker 11: Unemployment, inflation coming down. Rates will find out Thursday, but
27:42
Speaker 11: money likely to become cheaper, and that I think, more
27:45
Speaker 11: than anything, explains what's going on in.
27:47
Speaker 5: The market overall.
27:48
Speaker 11: I think what's also a little bit strange is that,
27:50
Speaker 11: you know, in one way, we don't know what's going
27:53
Speaker 11: to happen tomorrow or tonight, But in another way, neither
27:56
Speaker 11: outcome is going to be a huge surprise for the market,
27:58
Speaker 11: the way it was, for example, in twenty sixteen when
28:01
Speaker 11: President Trump first won against Hillary Clinton.
28:04
Speaker 5: And so I guess, you know, with some.
28:08
Speaker 11: Certainty about who the next president is going to be,
28:10
Speaker 11: we hope we find that out tonight tomorrow.
28:14
Speaker 5: That should lead the market to rally a little bit.
28:16
Speaker 11: But I'm not sure we could expect a big move
28:18
Speaker 11: one way or the other, except in some of these
28:21
Speaker 11: key so called Trump trades, either rising or falling depending
28:25
Speaker 11: on the outcome.
28:27
Speaker 4: Christopher, to what extent do you think prediction markets and
28:30
Speaker 4: I guess the rise of betting on the outcome of
28:35
Speaker 4: the election have somehow changed this election versus what we
28:40
Speaker 4: have seen in prior races. What role have those prediction
28:44
Speaker 4: markets played here?
28:47
Speaker 11: I think that's a great question, and I'm not sure
28:49
Speaker 11: I have a good answer yet. I mean, I think
28:51
Speaker 11: we need to sort of see these markets develop over
28:54
Speaker 11: a couple of cycles.
28:56
Speaker 5: I'm not sure I believe you know that they are
29:00
Speaker 5: great predictors of the outcome.
29:01
Speaker 11: I mean, you've seen actually them moving with the polls
29:04
Speaker 11: to some extent as President Trump's momentum seems to have
29:07
Speaker 11: flagged of light.
29:08
Speaker 5: You've seen some of those things tighten.
29:11
Speaker 11: You've seen the bitcoin trade come off except for today,
29:14
Speaker 11: you've seen the peso bounce a little bit as Vice
29:17
Speaker 11: President Harris's odds appear to be improving in the polls.
29:21
Speaker 11: So I think we'll be looking at those markets more
29:23
Speaker 11: closely in terms of how deep they are, who's participating,
29:27
Speaker 11: who's got the really big bets, on are they big
29:29
Speaker 11: enough to actually move those numbers? But I think they're
29:33
Speaker 11: kind of interesting, but maybe not gonna move a lot
29:37
Speaker 11: of money one way or the other.
29:39
Speaker 2: Chris, I hear a lot about the Trump trade. Is
29:42
Speaker 2: that anything more than I do know? Long the dollar
29:44
Speaker 2: short bonds? Is that a reasonable way to think about
29:47
Speaker 2: or is a more nuanced than that?
29:49
Speaker 5: I think that's very well, it's more nuanced.
29:52
Speaker 11: And when you dig down into clean energy stocks versus
29:55
Speaker 11: oil stocks, when you look at, for example, retailers that
29:59
Speaker 11: are very sensitive to tariffs, they are they are the
30:04
Speaker 11: anti Trump trade versus banks that are probably less sensitive
30:07
Speaker 11: to tariffs and maybe hoping.
30:09
Speaker 5: For some deregulation.
30:10
Speaker 11: So within certain sectors, I think you get a differentiation,
30:13
Speaker 11: But I think overall there is a sense that a
30:15
Speaker 11: Trump presidency will, ironically for Republicans over the past number
30:20
Speaker 11: of years, be the less the less fiscal hawkish administration. Uh.
30:28
Speaker 11: And so that is a trade where you know, if
30:31
Speaker 11: he wins, the expectation is more inflation, a bigger budget deficit,
30:35
Speaker 11: maybe higher tariffs with I'm sure higher prices with tariffs,
30:38
Speaker 11: and a crack down on immigration. That I think is
30:42
Speaker 11: what what captures it all in terms of what you're
30:45
Speaker 11: seeing in bond yields as well as maybe stock prices.
30:50
Speaker 4: How much do you anticipate the f o MC meeting
30:54
Speaker 4: in the in the FED decision on Thursday to drive
30:57
Speaker 4: markets when it comes during you know, such a pivotal
31:01
Speaker 4: week for the future of the US presidency.
31:06
Speaker 11: Well, I think a lot of us have forgotten that
31:08
Speaker 11: there was an f MC meeting this week. With all
31:13
Speaker 11: apologies to Jerum Powell, he may appreciate the fact that
31:15
Speaker 11: the spotlight.
31:16
Speaker 5: Won't be so glaring on him on Thursday.
31:19
Speaker 11: I think the FED has done an extraordinary job, through
31:21
Speaker 11: an election cycle, through a very partisan period in our
31:25
Speaker 11: in our in our history, to really focus on its
31:29
Speaker 11: own knitting, really focus on the data, really focus on,
31:33
Speaker 11: you know, when it feels it can.
31:35
Speaker 5: Bring price interest rates down and.
31:40
Speaker 11: Other than a few partisan voices on one side or
31:43
Speaker 11: the other, I think the markets don't believe that this
31:46
Speaker 11: is a partisan move on their part, and I think
31:49
Speaker 11: that's why they have, you know, really tried to make
31:52
Speaker 11: sure they are delivering that message.
31:54
Speaker 5: And I think that's what most people believe.
31:56
Speaker 2: All right, christerpher thank you so much. We appreciate that.
31:58
Speaker 2: Christopher Smart, he is a managing partner at Our Growth
32:01
Speaker 2: Group and a former Special Assistant to the President for
32:04
Speaker 2: International economics, joining us from Boston.
32:07
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