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Trump Adds Kansas to Midterm Sprint · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 5: We've seen days worse than this. We came back from them.
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  Speaker 5: And the market is not the economy, is what we're told.
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  Speaker 5: President Trump certainly didn't talk that way last evening as he.
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  Speaker 6: Made his way.
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  Speaker 5: Did you hear, by the way, all the rallies are
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  Speaker 5: back on? This is a remarkable story. Never challenge Donald
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  Speaker 5: Trump when it comes to stamina. On the terminal, Trump
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  Speaker 5: rallies in Iowa, Kansas, back on calendar in midterm sprint. Yeah,
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  Speaker 5: he was going to do these tele-rallies, but now we're
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  Speaker 5: back on Air Force One, just like he was in
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  Speaker 5: South Carolina.
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  Speaker 6: Yesterday, listen.
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  Speaker 7: Today, I'm pleased to report in breaking news this morning
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  Speaker 7: that the U.S. economy is booming. This is the most
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  Speaker 7: successful our country has ever been by far. And you
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  Speaker 7: haven't seen anything yet. You're going to see the price
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  Speaker 7: of oil, the price of gasoline drop like a rock
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  Speaker 7: very soon. And we're going to have a safe world.
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  Speaker 6: That's important.
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  Speaker 7: Maybe most important. So we went from the highest price
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  Speaker 7: for drugs to the lowest price in the world for drugs.
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  Speaker 7: And I tell you the story of how I did it.
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  Speaker 6: But you may get bored.
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  Speaker 7: The bottom line is that's what we got here. Nobody
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  Speaker 7: else would have done it. Nobody else could have done it.
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  Speaker 5: We won't get bored.
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  Speaker 6: Keep going. Breaking news. I love this.
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  Speaker 5: He was talking about the GDP report yesterday. And yes,
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  Speaker 5: it showed very healthy growth. It was also coupled with
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  Speaker 5: a PCE that showed, well, continued inflation. Markets didn't love
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  Speaker 5: that combination. And if you're Wondered about gas prices. Here's
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  Speaker 5: where we are going into the final weekend of campaigning. $ 4. 20.
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  Speaker 5: That's not a joke. $ 4. 20 for gas nationally, according to AAA.
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  Speaker 5: Diesel clocking in at $ 6.
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  Speaker 7: 32.
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  Speaker 5: A week ago, we were at $ 6.
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  Speaker 3: 31.
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  Speaker 6: A year ago, $ 3.
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  Speaker 7: 68.
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  Speaker 5: Been looking forward to talking to Cliff. I just got
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  Speaker 5: my hands on the latest deck here, the latest research
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  Speaker 5: from Ipsos Reuters. Of course, this is where Cliff Hales,
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  Speaker 5: the headline says it all. Americans are surly on the
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  Speaker 5: eve of Election Day. Sub-headline, The Economics of Dissatisfaction. I
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  Speaker 5: think that's going to be the name of my book.
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  Speaker 5: Cliff Young joins us. Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs Chair Visiting
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  Speaker 5: Professor Political Science at Texas A & M University's Bush
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  Speaker 5: School of Government and Public Service. Hey, Cliff, we're almost there.
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  Speaker 5: It's great to see you. The voter can't get no
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  Speaker 5: satisfaction is what you're saying.
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, we're almost there, right? Just a couple more days.
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  Speaker 8: By the way, I'm going to take your motto. We
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  Speaker 8: don't need to sleep until we're dead, right? I'm going
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  Speaker 8: to take that motto as well. But yeah, you know,
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  Speaker 8: the data is very clear. There's massive downward pressure on
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  Speaker 8: Republicans and Trump. Americans are just not satisfied. They're having
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  Speaker 8: problems making ends meet. We've talked about that over and
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  Speaker 8: over and over again. Many of the policy decisions, especially
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  Speaker 8: on the foreign policy, policy side have, Iran specifically, have
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  Speaker 8: really had an impact on people's pocketbooks. And that's how
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  Speaker 8: they're feeling. They're feeling surly as they walk into the
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  Speaker 8: ballot box.
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  Speaker 5: Let's put some numbers on it. You asked, generally speaking,
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  Speaker 5: this is the actual question which we don't always get
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  Speaker 5: to in these polls. Generally speaking, would you say the
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  Speaker 5: following things are headed in the right direction or are
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  Speaker 5: they off on the wrong track? We're talking cost of
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  Speaker 5: living and national economy. What did you learn?
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  Speaker 8: That we have a strong majority of Americans that believe
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  Speaker 8: that today. That's up 30 points versus a year ago.
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  Speaker 8: I mean, these are significant, significant changes. Indeed, I often emphasize,
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  Speaker 8: both here and in other places, that we don't typically
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  Speaker 8: see numbers moving like this. We're in a pessimistic state
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  Speaker 8: right now. Ultimately, the voters are going to take that
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  Speaker 8: out on the party in power on Election Day.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah.
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  Speaker 5: The president's approval rating has been underwater for months. Is
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  Speaker 5: it still dropping?
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  Speaker 8: It's still going down. It's inching down a little bit
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  Speaker 8: at a time. Overall, if you look at all the polls,
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  Speaker 8: it's about at 37 points, 37 percent. Our own poll
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  Speaker 8: is about at 32. This is a bad place to be.
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  Speaker 8: You never want to be in the 30s. A sitting
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  Speaker 8: incumbent like Trump, if he were to run again, would
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  Speaker 8: not win. His likelihood of winning would be lower than
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  Speaker 8: 50 percent. You can't get your party elected. The approval
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  Speaker 8: numbers just reflect this overall economic malaise at this point.
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  Speaker 5: You can't quantify this. the down ballot impact when he's
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  Speaker 5: not on the ballot, can you? I mean, the president's
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  Speaker 5: been asking people, you pretend I'm on the ballot. I'm
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  Speaker 5: on the ballot, he says, but he's not. So how
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  Speaker 5: do we quantify the president's or connect the president's approval
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  Speaker 5: rating with that of someone running for a congressional seat?
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, if he were on the ballot, what would happen,
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  Speaker 8: he would attract individuals that are low-propensity voters, those individuals
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  Speaker 8: that usually stay home. He's been a very strong brand.
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  Speaker 8: He has, over the last three electoral cycles, he's run
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  Speaker 8: for president. He's attracted a new electorate to the fold.
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  Speaker 8: But he's not there, and he's affecting indirectly. His approval
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  Speaker 8: ratings are a function of the overall lack of optimism.
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  Speaker 8: It's one more indicator. We can look at consumer confidence.
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  Speaker 8: We can look at those right-track, wrong-track. We can look
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  Speaker 8: at approval ratings. They all tell the same story. They're
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  Speaker 8: all highly intercorrelated. And so it's just one more piece
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  Speaker 8: of evidence that Republicans and Trump are heading into Election
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  Speaker 8: Day with very, very strong headwinds.
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  Speaker 5: If you're playing along on your home game, you crunched
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  Speaker 5: the real clear average on President Trump's job approval rating.
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  Speaker 5: It's 37.5 percent. How does that help to shape the
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  Speaker 5: 2028 Republican primary, Cliff?
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  Speaker 8: That's a great question. Obviously, setting aside names, we typically
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  Speaker 8: look this far out on basically the structure of public opinion.
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  Speaker 8: Where are people with approval ratings? Is there incumbent running,
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  Speaker 8: yes or no? There won't be an incumbent running in
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  Speaker 8: 2028 for Republicans. And with these approval ratings, even at this,
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  Speaker 8: let's call it a high point, because typically approval ratings fall,
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  Speaker 8: keep on falling over time. But let's assume 38 for
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  Speaker 8: the sake of argument, a successor has no better than
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  Speaker 8: a 20% chance of winning. So Rubio or Vance or
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  Speaker 8: some third individual, it doesn't really matter. They go into
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  Speaker 8: 2028 in a very difficult structural position.
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  Speaker 6: Now, Things can happen.
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  Speaker 8: You can have a wonder child come and be the
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  Speaker 8: candidate that attracts people. But structurally speaking, based upon our
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  Speaker 8: past experience with these sorts of things, Republicans will have
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  Speaker 8: most probably a difficult year in 28.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 5: Just one minute left, Cliff. Are the numbers baked? I mean,
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  Speaker 5: everyone's out campaigning all weekend. Is it really get out
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  Speaker 5: the vote or could Republican candidates help to turn the tide?
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  Speaker 6: Ultimately, it's never over until it's over.
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  Speaker 8: We learn that every election day, right, when we see
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  Speaker 8: the numbers. And, you know, it is about getting your
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  Speaker 8: base over. You're not going to attract someone from the
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  Speaker 8: other side. That's not what's happening ultimately. So, yeah, pounding away, ultimately,
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  Speaker 8: that's important. I think there's a fear in the polling
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  Speaker 8: community that our polls have been off favoring Democrats versus Republicans. Yeah.
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  Speaker 8: To what extent could that have an effect on the
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  Speaker 8: outcome of the Senate? We've taken that into consideration in
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  Speaker 8: terms of our modeling. The polls would have to be
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  Speaker 8: seriously off to change the course of Election Day.
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  Speaker 6: It's going to be a pretty blue day. Stay with
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  Speaker 6: us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming
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  Speaker 6: up after this.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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  Speaker 5: Four days until the election and dozens more house races
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  Speaker 5: are being.
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  Speaker 3: Re-rated.
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  Speaker 6: By the Cook Political Report.
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  Speaker 5: You know, Erin Covey, she's been on this program a lot,
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  Speaker 5: says the battleground map has expanded. Democrats now have the
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  Speaker 5: potential to win their largest majority since 2009. Yeah, this
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  Speaker 5: is the very latest. They moved a bunch of more
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  Speaker 5: races here, as a matter of fact, just in the
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  Speaker 5: last couple of hours. Cook Political Report, dozens more House
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  Speaker 5: races toward Democrats. now forecasting more than 218 seats to
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  Speaker 5: lean Democrat or better, okay? Projecting Democratic House majority between
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  Speaker 5: 227 and 240 seats. There's some really interesting shifts here,
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  Speaker 5: including one that jumps off the page. Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District,
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  Speaker 5: represented by Brian Fitzpatrick, moving from lean Republican to toss-up.
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  Speaker 3: Wow.
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  Speaker 5: The open South Carolina 1st Congressional District is gets the
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  Speaker 5: same page. Remember, Fitzpatrick in one of the only districts
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  Speaker 5: carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, which is why his
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  Speaker 5: name keeps coming up here. Maybe that's why there's been
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  Speaker 5: a reversal in the schedule. You heard about this? President
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  Speaker 5: Trump rallies in Kansas and Iowa are back on the calendar.
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  Speaker 5: I thought the whole point was you can reach more
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  Speaker 5: people with a teller rally. This conversation took place with
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  Speaker 5: the president yesterday. Listen to the back and forth with reporters.
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  Speaker 6: You've been doing a lot of travel.
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  Speaker 3: We've been doing a lot of travel with you. How
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  Speaker 3: are you feeling?
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  Speaker 6: How's your health?
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  Speaker 5: If you didn't get that because the plane is loud behind,
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  Speaker 5: he said, we're going to have a strong night, in
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  Speaker 5: my opinion. So you're not going to Kansas. It has
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  Speaker 5: nothing to do with you being sick or traveling. He said,
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  Speaker 5: you're sick. You're sick to ask that. By the time
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  Speaker 5: he's back at the White House, Kansas is on the
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  Speaker 5: calendar again. So look, as I said before, I couldn't
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  Speaker 5: keep up with this travel schedule. And I'm guessing Roger
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  Speaker 5: Marshall's happy.
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  Speaker 7: I don't know.
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  Speaker 6: Maybe he's not.
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  Speaker 5: Latest numbers from Kansas are not encouraging. So here's where
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  Speaker 5: we start with our political panel. Thank God they're both
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  Speaker 5: here today. Rick and Jeannie, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick Davis,
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  Speaker 5: Republican strategist and partner at Stonecourt Capital. And our Democratic analyst,
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  Speaker 5: Jeannie Shanzano, Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick,
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  Speaker 5: if you were in charge of the president's travel, would
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  Speaker 5: you have recommended that he get to Kansas and Iowa
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  Speaker 5: again this weekend?
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  Speaker 2: Well, the first thing I would do is if I
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  Speaker 2: was in charge of his schedule is quit having these,
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  Speaker 2: you know, late night press briefings coming off the airplane.
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  Speaker 6: Yes, that goes first.
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  Speaker 2: And look, I mean, I do think it makes sense
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  Speaker 2: to go back to Kansas, you know, you know. Marshall
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  Speaker 2: is underperforming the Republican base there by a lot. And
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  Speaker 2: I think, you know, having the president get there is
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  Speaker 2: is important. I would say in Iowa, Ashley Henson's been
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  Speaker 2: running against Donald Trump. I don't know why he's going
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  Speaker 2: to Iowa because she's been telling everybody how much she's
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  Speaker 2: going to stand up to him. And the first question
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  Speaker 2: voters are asking. You're not standing up to him now.
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  Speaker 2: And so that doesn't fit that campaign messaging at all.
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  Speaker 2: So and both of them are nail biter elections, both
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  Speaker 2: of which are Republican should win. But it's indicative that
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  Speaker 2: the president going there means there's There's something wrong.
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  Speaker 5: Jeannie, the message from the White House when they did
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  Speaker 5: pull off the Kansas and Iowa rallies from the schedule was, hey,
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  Speaker 5: he's going to do teller. They're going to be major
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  Speaker 5: teller rallies. I don't know what counts as major. That's
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  Speaker 5: a big phone bank, I guess. But the point was
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  Speaker 5: he could reach more people that way than after the.
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  Speaker 5: The reporter, he says, you're sick. All of a sudden
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  Speaker 5: we're back. So was he responding to a dare? Did
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  Speaker 5: he think that the reporters are calling him low energy?
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  Speaker 5: What's the deal?
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  Speaker 4: You know, I don't think the president, listen, he's tired.
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  Speaker 4: To Rick's point, he's getting on these planes late. He's
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  Speaker 4: not hearing these reporters. And just like the American public, Joe,
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  Speaker 4: he's in an apparently very surly mood. I heard you
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  Speaker 4: talking to Cliff from Ipsos. Everybody's surly. That poor reporter says,
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  Speaker 4: you know, not are you sick, but are you sick
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  Speaker 4: of traveling? And he pounced on him. Every GOP official
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  Speaker 4: you talk to says the same thing. Thank God he's
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  Speaker 4: getting off the trail. This has been a disaster. He
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  Speaker 4: has done nothing except make these polls get tighter and
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  Speaker 4: tighter and tighter. You know, the only people excited about
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  Speaker 4: him getting out back onto the rallies this weekend are
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  Speaker 4: the Democrats. They keep saying, yes, Mr. President, please come in.
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  Speaker 4: And so, you know, I think Donald Trump was frustrated
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  Speaker 4: by the coverage of people suggesting he may not be
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  Speaker 4: rallying this weekend because he wants to play golf and
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  Speaker 4: relax in Mar-a-Lago. And so he's going to get back
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  Speaker 4: out there. But does anybody really believe in this environment anymore?
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  Speaker 4: that Donald Trump going to Iowa and Kansas is going
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  Speaker 4: to do any good? The answer is no. He is
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  Speaker 4: able to not only get out the vote amongst Republicans,
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  Speaker 4: but get out the vote amongst very angry Democrats, independents
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  Speaker 4: and moderates. What they need now are door knockers. They
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  Speaker 4: need people out to get out their friends and neighbors.
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  Speaker 4: They need Donald Trump to stay away and put in
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  Speaker 4: some more money.
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  Speaker 5: Well, I'll tell you, if he's looking at the markets,
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  Speaker 5: if he's got, you know, he likes to watch this
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  Speaker 5: show on Air Force One. If he's looking at the markets, Rick,
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  Speaker 5: I don't know. Is there an impact? This I got it,
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  Speaker 5: by the way, the Nasdaq is we're getting crushed here.
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  Speaker 5: The Nasdaq 100 is now down three and a half percent.
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  Speaker 5: The S & P 500. is down one and three
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  Speaker 5: quarters percent. It's getting worse, Rick. And we talk about
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  Speaker 5: the wealth effect. Is there a reverse wealth effect when
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  Speaker 5: it comes to voters? This is an ugly last sort
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  Speaker 5: of image to be burned into your brain before you vote.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, sadly, and I've had a lot of practical experience
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  Speaker 2: in this, when the markets go down, the voters blame
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  Speaker 2: the party in power. And they're already, as Jeannie says,
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  Speaker 2: in a pretty uncertainly mood. And one of the things
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  Speaker 2: that's not going to help them going into the weekend
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  Speaker 2: before the election, for those who have still not voted—
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  Speaker 2: is to be watching the news about what kind of
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  Speaker 2: impact this is having on their 401k.
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  Speaker 6: So, yeah, it's not a positive.
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  Speaker 2: If Donald Trump, he's been campaigning all week on great
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  Speaker 2: GDP numbers and how strong the the, uh, economy is,
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  Speaker 2: and this is counter narrative to that.
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  Speaker 6: He, he doesn't need that.
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  Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be surprised if it's before the end
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  Speaker 2: of the market today, he doesn't say something about having
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  Speaker 2: a deal with Iran or anything to prime the pump, uh,
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  Speaker 2: get that market moving again. Cause he certainly sure hasn't
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: avoided doing that in the past.
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  Speaker 5: Well, you know, he likes to talk about the markets as,
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  Speaker 5: as kind of a gauge, a genie, as you well
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: know of his own success. He's said, uh, You know,
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: you're welcome was the message. You're welcome from your favorite president.
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  Speaker 5: Check your 401k. And I'll tell you, I'm going to
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: add one here. We just have a red headline crossing
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: and it's from the FT. Anthropic may not get investment
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: grade rating after its IPO. That may be a reason
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: why we just took another leg lower. Jeannie, obviously not
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: everyone is invested in the market, but just like gas prices,
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  Speaker 5: you see this headline.
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  Speaker 6: What's the emotional impact?
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  Speaker 3: It's devastating.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, the market is the one thing the president
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  Speaker 4: has been able to hang his hat on for a
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  Speaker 4: long time now. I mean, his approval ratings way down,
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  Speaker 4: his approval on the economy way down, inflation way up,
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  Speaker 4: gas prices way up, diesel way up, cost of living
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  Speaker 4: way up in an unpopular war. I mean, the list
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  Speaker 4: goes on and on. But the market has been relatively
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: strong and he's been able to talk about that even
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  Speaker 4: when consumer sentiment is is not what he wants it
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  Speaker 4: to be. And so he's going to have to handle that.
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  Speaker 4: And Joe, he's going to do that this weekend, standing
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  Speaker 4: next to Roger Marshall, who many people call maybe the
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  Speaker 4: worst candidate, worse than Ken Paxton, which is saying a lot,
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  Speaker 4: out there this year. You know, I think one of
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  Speaker 4: the reasons the president didn't want to campaign there was
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: because he's going to be campaigning for Potentially next to
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  Speaker 4: a loser, Ashley Hinson, a much stronger candidate, but she's
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  Speaker 4: facing enormous odds. And so the president is now wrapping
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  Speaker 4: himself up with that. And he's going into a weekend
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  Speaker 4: on a Friday with a market that is this problematic
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  Speaker 4: for him, quite frankly. And you add to that this
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  Speaker 4: anthropic news. He has done everything he can to hold
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: up anthropic and all the tech sector because he knows
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  Speaker 4: that's the backbone of our market. And if this begins
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  Speaker 4: to show signs of weakening, he is in very tough trouble.
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  Speaker 4: And I hope that doesn't portend that he does something
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  Speaker 4: in Iran, which many of us believe he shouldn't do,
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: as a third aircraft carrier goes there, which is unprecedented
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  Speaker 4: since 2003.
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  Speaker 5: Well, boy, I'll tell you, just if we are going
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: back to war next week, that's going to be another
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: potential blowout. overhang on this market. And we've got a
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: lot more earnings that could look like these. Rick, you're
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: a successful investor. You've made a career of it after politics.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: Are you starting to question this whole AI narrative that
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: the White House has embraced?
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: Well, I kind of look forward to buying the dip
• 18:10
  Speaker 6: on this one. For real?
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Well, look, I mean, you know, at the end of
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: the day, I think the White House making the point that,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: you know, we have to win the technology race against
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: China is a very legitimate point. And you can argue
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: about what their views are vis-a-vis data center development and,
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: you know, AI regulation.
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: But the overall theme, I think, is correct.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: And I have no doubt that that that is shared
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: by the industry writ large because they show up and
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: want to hear that every time he invites them to
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: the White House.
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: So I think there is a uniformity of views.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: And then when you get past the headline, that's where
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: I think especially the voters start to question how to
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: get there. But I don't think anybody doubts that we
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: want to win this race against China on technology. Mm-hmm.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: Just 30 seconds left, Jeannie. Do Democrats have an answer?
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: Do they feel like they're on the right side of
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: history when something like this happens?
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think they do. But Democrats have to be
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: very careful. This election is not going to be a
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: pro-Democratic Party vote. It will be an anti-those in positions
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: of power in Washington, D.C., and nothing more. And Joe,
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: by the way, can we just add Pope Leo, the
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: first pope ever to vote in an American election and
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: maybe even a Democratic election ever in history?
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 19:33
  Speaker 6: more coming up after this.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
• 19:43
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• 19:46
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• 19:50
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: The president's travels with four days to the election. We're
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: back on the schedule in Kansas and Iowa, as we
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: were just discussing with Kayleigh. This is curious because they
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: had been turned into tele-rallies. Just don't ask the president
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: if he's tired. That was the case as reporters questioned
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: the initial decision to cancel these rallies.
• 20:15
  Speaker 6: Listen.
• 20:17
  Speaker 7: Today, I'm pleased to report in breaking news this morning
• 20:20
  Speaker 7: that the U.S. economy is booming. This is the most
• 20:22
  Speaker 7: successful our country has ever been by far. And you
• 20:25
  Speaker 7: haven't seen anything yet. You're going to see the price
• 20:27
  Speaker 7: of oil, the price of gasoline drop like a rock
• 20:30
  Speaker 7: very soon. And we're going to have a safe world.
• 20:33
  Speaker 7: That's important. Maybe most important. So we went from the
• 20:36
  Speaker 7: highest price for drugs to the lowest price in the
• 20:38
  Speaker 7: world for drugs. And I tell you the story of
• 20:41
  Speaker 7: how I did it, but you may get bored. The
• 20:43
  Speaker 7: bottom line is, that's what we got you. Nobody else
• 20:46
  Speaker 7: would have done it. Nobody else could have done it.
• 20:50
  Speaker 9: So that's some of what we've heard from the president
• 20:53
  Speaker 9: on the stump. That was him in South Carolina on Thursday.
• 20:55
  Speaker 9: And we may hear more of that same messaging apparently
• 20:57
  Speaker 9: on Sunday, because, yes, the rallies will go on, I guess,
• 21:00
  Speaker 9: just at different times in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday.
• 21:03
  Speaker 9: So let's get more on this scheduling change in this
• 21:06
  Speaker 9: final stretch to the midterms as we turn to Bloomberg
• 21:08
  Speaker 9: White House. Josh Wingrove is here with me in the Washington, D.C. studio. So, Josh,
• 21:13
  Speaker 9: why are these back on? Why were they off in
• 21:16
  Speaker 9: the first place?
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: It's not really clear. The president had kept his Florida one. Monday,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: I should note, has always been up in the air.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: We may see him back on the road on Monday.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: But there's been this back and forth. The president at
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: one point claiming he didn't need to do the rally
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: in Kansas because things were looking better for them there.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: Now he's putting it on, so what message that sends
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: is a little unclear. The president at his base thinks
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: that rallies help. He thinks it drives his voters to
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: the polls. We've seen them in particular, Kayleigh, picking districts
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: in safer parts of states if he's going to swing states,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: trying to stay on safe turf. And so I think
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: there's just simply a lot of questions here swirling. And
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: his suggestion that tele-rallies would be better sort of strains
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: his past record where, of course, throughout COVID, for instance,
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: he really preferred in-person rallies over virtual rallies. And so
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: we'll see. But he's got two there. The polls continue,
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: of course, to flash warning signs both in the House,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: which seems all but lost for Republicans, and in the
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Senate as well. Which, depending on where you go, there's
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: an interesting piece in the Post today about polling error.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Who knows? But right now, it's just not looking good
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: for Republicans.
• 22:19
  Speaker 9: Yeah, that Post piece was interesting. Looking at Kansas, where
• 22:22
  Speaker 9: they find the Democrat Adam Hamilton with a significant lead
• 22:24
  Speaker 9: over incumbent Roger Marshall, and yet they detail how hard
• 22:27
  Speaker 9: it was to get Republicans to respond to the survey,
• 22:29
  Speaker 9: which may speak to— kind of the wider issue we
• 22:31
  Speaker 9: are seeing, if there's an enthusiasm gap and if that's
• 22:34
  Speaker 9: reflecting in the polls.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: And several pollsters have been reflecting a version of this
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: throughout this whole cycle, and so it's sort of hanging
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: in the balance.
• 22:40
  Speaker 9: Yeah, it's really something to consider. To get back to
• 22:44
  Speaker 9: the travel changes here, I also wonder how much of
• 22:46
  Speaker 9: the president's decision-making may be just to put away any
• 22:50
  Speaker 9: questions about whether this is a matter of his personal
• 22:52
  Speaker 9: stamina as an 80-year-old. Listen to this exchange that happened
• 22:55
  Speaker 9: at the White House as he was returning yesterday.
• 22:57
  Speaker 6: You've been doing a lot of travel. We've been doing
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: a lot of travel with you. How are you feeling?
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: How's your health?
• 23:04
  Speaker 7: We're going to have a strong Tuesday night. That's my opinion.
• 23:08
  Speaker 8: So you not going to Kansas has nothing to do.
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: With you being sick of traveling?
• 23:17
  Speaker 9: He says the reporter is sick when he's asked if
• 23:19
  Speaker 9: he's sick of traveling. That was actually under the wing
• 23:22
  Speaker 9: of of Air Force One. So we know that he
• 23:25
  Speaker 9: will travel, that he's maybe not sick of doing that
• 23:27
  Speaker 9: on Sunday. You said Monday is an open question. Do
• 23:29
  Speaker 9: we know where he will be on Tuesday? Is he
• 23:31
  Speaker 9: going to be watching the results come in for the
• 23:32
  Speaker 9: White House? Might he go to Mar-a-Lago?
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: That's a great question. We don't know. I kind of
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: would expect him to be at the White House. We'll see. Monday,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: you know, historically, he spends the last day of an
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: election campaign hitting as many stops as he can. And
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: so whether he does that or doesn't do that, I
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: think will be an interesting tell point. That remark, I mean,
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: I just, when he There were other versions of it
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: that you did not air, which I think is gracious
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: of us. It's always disappointing to hear a president talk
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: to the press that way. But broadly speaking, they are
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: trying right now to make sure that the base shows
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: up and that the low propensity Trump voters... And this
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: is a taste, frankly, of what we're going to expect
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: in cycles to come when Trump is no longer on
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: the ballot. And one of the big questions facing the
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: party right now is, you know, after Tuesday, we're going
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: to start talking more about 2028, whether it's Vice President
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: Vance or whomever. Can they keep together the coalition that
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: President Trump put together? Big open question. Of course, the
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: Democrats have questions of their own and whether their tent
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: is getting too big or fractured on several key questions.
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: But I think, you know, what we have right now
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: is a test drive of Trump's not going to be
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: on the ballot anymore. We don't really know what that
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: looks like for the Republican Party. He's an unpopular president
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: at the moment. That's a headwind for a lot of
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: Republicans in swing districts and in districts that weren't even
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: thought to be that swingy. We just don't know what's
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: going to happen on Tuesday right now.
• 24:44
  Speaker 9: Well, and it's an excellent point that once we get
• 24:46
  Speaker 9: through Tuesday and the 2026 cycle is over, the 2028
• 24:49
  Speaker 9: cycle immediately begins. And many of the candidates who have
• 24:52
  Speaker 9: been running for office in this midterm might quickly shift
• 24:55
  Speaker 9: their focus to higher ambitions. You could point to Governor
• 24:58
  Speaker 9: Shapiro in Pennsylvania, for example, Senator Ossoff in Georgia, who
• 25:01
  Speaker 9: I know you're writing about today. It seems like a
• 25:03
  Speaker 9: foregone conclusion. He will bring reelection to the Senate. The
• 25:06
  Speaker 9: question is going to be whether or not he does
• 25:08
  Speaker 9: intend to serve that six-year term.
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of Democrats are hoping Ossoff will consider
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: to run. The basic situation here is that he insists
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: he won't. Of course, Obama insisted the same thing in
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: 2006 and then changed his mind. But for a lot
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: of Democrats who've gotten more and more interested in Ossoff's candidacy,
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: one key question is emerging, Kayleigh, and that is he
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: really needs Keisha Lance Bottoms to win the governor's race.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: Because otherwise, if he were to seek the presidency... And
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: if many things happen, they actually want it. They'd be
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: giving up a Senate seat because the Republican governor could
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: appoint it. And so that is like a big question
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: mark for Ossoff's 2028 aspirations, if indeed he has any.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: And again, let's just say that he's professing not to. But,
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: you know, right now the field is looking to be
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: very wide. We don't really have a lot of intel
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: on like who will emerge from it. The prediction markets
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: have Ossoff, AOC and Gavin Newsom as sort of the
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: big targets. And then a drop to Vice President Harris
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: and others after that. And so, you know, we'll see.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: But Ossoff, he, you know, nine years ago ran for Congress, lost,
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: but was sort of the early face of the Trump
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: resistance in a special election in Atlanta where he was
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: born and raised. And then in 2020, of course, he
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: and Raphael Warnock forced runoff elections, and Trump fumed between
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: the 2020 election and January 6th over the results, and
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: in many ways sort of frittered away. A lot of
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: Republicans think those two seats. And so Ossoff has benefited
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: from Trump contrast before. I think he's benefiting right now.
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: There are questions about whether he will run, and if
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: he does, what will translate and all that. David Axelrod,
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: a longtime Obama aide, for instance, saying that Ossoff never smiles.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: and sort of suggested he was less comfortable in all
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: rooms than Obama would be. And so we'll see. Right now,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: everyone's sort of figuring out where it goes, but there's
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: a lot of money behind Ossoff right now. There's a
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: lot of momentum behind Ossoff in his race, which he
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: looks to be winning by a large margin. The question,
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: as I said, is, number one, Whether the circumstance gets
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: Keisha Lance Bottoms over the line as well, her race
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: looking much tighter against a billionaire who's self-funding. And number two,
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: we could have a jockeying in Georgia with the other senator,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Raphael Warnock.
• 27:12
  Speaker 6: Warnock's out of this conversation.
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: And has been conspicuously absent, Kayleigh. Very interesting. Only appearing
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: at a joint Ossoff Bottoms rally for the first time
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: this week. So he has not really been hitting the
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: trail for them yet. And that's an interesting dynamic that
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: sort of hints to some, let's say, brewing, jockeying going
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: on in the Peach State for 2020.
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C.
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: At noontime Eastern at Bloomberg.com.