Latest / The SME Stream / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large ahead of the Reserve Bank's final meeting of the year

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large ahead of the Reserve Bank's final meeting of the year · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Now the Reserve Bank, speaking of which it's going to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: meet for the last time to see you next week
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: to review the official cash rate, and most economists are
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: now picking a cut of fifty basis points. Liam dan As,
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: The Herald's Business editor at large ALM get a Heather
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: seventy five basis points off the cards.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: Now, A, it does seem to be. Yeah, like I
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: think we mentioned last week, you know, I could see
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: some logic for getting down to where we're going fast,
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: but I think that the consensus is that the economy,
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: just some of some of the economic data that's coming
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: in the past three or four weeks, at unemployment not
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: being quite as bad as expected, things suggest that fifty,
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: you know, is sort of a big cat. Really, seventy
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: five is slightly panic cut, and so you know, you
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: wouldn't want to send a message that we're panicking or
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: that there was a crisis. So that's the odds. But
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: it is the big monetary policy statement, this one. So
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: this is the one where we get all the documents
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: in the forecast. So there'll be actually a lot of
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: interest in you know, because okay, we know that we're
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: going to cut down to four point twenty five next
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Where are we going next year? How low is this
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: going to end up? Those are the things that we're
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: going to be looking for, I guess. So you know,
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: as much as you've had some views on this in
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: the past, as much as we can trust trust the
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Reserve banks forecast for where they're going, I guess is
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: the issue.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: The thing is, though, Liam, I mean, the employment numbers
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: seem to be holding up quite well, but then you
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: listen to Treasury and they are revising what's going to
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: happen with the government's fiscal situation, and it's like way
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: worse than they thought, so they've got to take that
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: into account as well.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that looked pretty rough, and I mean activity isn't
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: expected to pick up that fast. That's the trouble. It's
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: you know, this survived to twenty five thing. Well, A
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: and Z had some quarterly forecasts out earlier in the week,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: and you know they're talking about the recovery rarely is
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: this from the second half of twenty twenty five, And
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: it might be all up only about one point one
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  Speaker 2: percent growth next year, which is pretty anemic. I mean,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: you know, sure it's good to have growth. We've had
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: had basically a year of recess. But you know, if
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: you're expecting an economic boom coming, you're going to be disappointed.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: So it doesn't you know, there therefore casts out that
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: there are some good things happening, there's some strong dairy
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: prices and all that sort of stuff, but that takes
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: a while to get through the economy, so you know,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: it's not doesn't all suddenly come right after the summer
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: and that of course, as Treasury will be. They're sort
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: of prepping us, i think, for the Haifu for the
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: half year accounts with a speech basically letting us know
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: that it's not bookming, and that doesn't it means the
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: text take is not going to be fantastic, and so yeah,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: you've got a factor all that in. But yeah, I
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: think we're going to see them cut fifty and maybe
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: suggest fifty again in February and then down to maybe
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: three point five three point twenty five as a sort
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: of baseline.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: How good, Liam, Thank you appreciate it. Liam Dan, the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Herald's business editor at l