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Episode 166 - 11/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 166 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Tuesday. The work week rolls on and
• 0:38
  tonight we got a lot of sweats to talk about, including the
• 0:41
  return of Maxion. That's right, the craziest
• 0:44
  conference in all of college football tripleheader here
• 0:46
  tonight. I have a couple plays in Maxion
• 0:49
  for you, including a side as well as a total.
• 0:53
  And then I'm going to, in addition to those two college
• 0:54
  football plays, give you 3 college basketball plays.
• 0:57
  So A5 pack overall college hoops.
• 0:59
  There's a total that reminds me quite a bit of our play last
• 1:03
  night with Gonzaga, which was able to come out as a winner.
• 1:07
  And then also we have some sharp, obscure line moves, some
• 1:09
  games that again, the public doesn't care about, but wise
• 1:12
  guys are hitting and moving numbers on.
• 1:13
  So we're going to talk about it all. 5 pack today, 2 college
• 1:17
  football, 3 college basketball. And then I want to hit on a few
• 1:21
  NFL and college football games upcoming this weekend that
• 1:24
  caught my eye, including some dogs that I'm thinking we should
• 1:27
  probably grab right now before they move and we and we lose
• 1:30
  some key numbers and hooks. So a little little preview, a
• 1:33
  little wet your whistle for some college and NFL upcoming for
• 1:36
  this weekend. Now looking back to our last
• 1:38
  night, guys, we eked out another winning day, kept the streak
• 1:42
  going, 3 and 2 + 0.48 units. Obviously we got started the
• 1:47
  Cowboys game, didn't get much luck there.
• 1:49
  And now we did get our Dalton Schultz over.
• 1:51
  Remember, Dalton Schultz was predicted closer to 40 yards.
• 1:54
  Was he 27 1/2 in the betting market?
• 1:57
  Rhythm had a great edge there to the over Dalton Schultz over
• 2:00
  Cashes for us. But then the Cowboys, boy, are
• 2:03
  they terrible. I got a lot of tweets telling me
• 2:06
  what an idiot you are for taking the Cowboys and I guess I was.
• 2:10
  And this person kept badgering me saying do not incorporate the
• 2:13
  eye test, the eye test, the eye test.
• 2:16
  No, I don't because I go off of data.
• 2:18
  And I think if you bet based on the eye test, that's going to be
• 2:21
  a losing proposition overall. So obviously Cowboys get rolled.
• 2:24
  It was pretty pathetic going for it and a fake punt earlier when
• 2:28
  he could have just punted it away.
• 2:30
  How about maybe walking the the line to maybe covering late and
• 2:33
  then Cooper Rush gets strip sacked and they score a
• 2:35
  touchdown. So that one hurt couldn't get
• 2:37
  the Cowboys. The annoying part is the Texans
• 2:40
  also poured salt in the wound because they scored a
• 2:42
  meaningless touchdown with like a minute left to sink.
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  Are under 41 1/2. So 1 and 2 on the game.
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  Got Schultz, didn't get the Cowboys, didn't get the under.
• 2:51
  However, we went to an O in college basketball, which
• 2:54
  produced a winning night overall.
• 2:56
  We got the Gonzaga under 149 1/2.
• 2:59
  I was sweating like crazy in that one because there was an
• 3:02
  opportunity there. It was kind of like looking
• 3:04
  decent at half and then we're looking good late, and then they
• 3:07
  scored a bunch late and there was a chance that they might
• 3:10
  kill us by fouling and putting up some meaningless points late.
• 3:13
  Luckily they dribbled out the clock so it landed 147, got the
• 3:17
  under 149 1/2, and then Cal State Fullerton.
• 3:20
  Now here's something I just want to mention.
• 3:22
  This is why we money line short favorites.
• 3:25
  Did you guys notice with Cal State Fullerton?
• 3:27
  Now, if you played the money line, you said, oh nice, we won
• 3:29
  62 to 61. But remember, if you laid the
• 3:32
  points, Cal State Fullerton was around -2 Now this was crazy.
• 3:36
  I, I noticed barstool, barstool gambling.
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  They tweeted this out like right as the game ended.
• 3:41
  And they tweeted a, a screenshot of like the last minute of the
• 3:45
  game or actually the last like 19 seconds of the game.
• 3:48
  With 19 seconds left, Cal State Fullerton was leading 62 to 56.
• 3:52
  So they're leading by 6 points. Kid makes a free throw, then he
• 3:57
  makes a layup. This is all on Idaho State.
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  Then kid makes a three pointer with no time left.
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  So the quote tweet from Barstool Gambling was just a disgusting
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  ending. If you were Cal State Fullerton
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  -2 better now, no, no shame. If you lay the two, you wanted
• 4:13
  to save the juice -110 I totally get it.
• 4:15
  But that's one of those games where you see the light and you
• 4:18
  say to yourself, like if you had lost.
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  And when I was new to betting, I would always want to try to pay
• 4:24
  the lowest juice possible. So I would lay A2.
• 4:26
  You know, 10-15 years ago when I was a newbie better.
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  But I'm not much, much more willing, of course, to pay a
• 4:33
  little more juice for this exact reason.
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  Because Cal State wins by one. Again, They're up by 6 with 19
• 4:39
  seconds left. If you're laying at 2, that's
• 4:41
  about as bad as it gets. But This is why you money line
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  short favorites. And I wanted to give a shout out
• 4:47
  to my guy here, the Duke of Booyah.
• 4:49
  He were just replied and said I learned this the hard way.
• 4:52
  It's about winning bets. Sure, getting -110 is great, but
• 4:54
  not if you win by 1:00 and you're holding a -, 2 ticket.
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  So without fail, I take the money line to quote win the damn
• 5:00
  game. I wonder where he got that from
• 5:02
  and I did. These are the Nuggets that help
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  us become winning betters. Thank you, Josh.
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  So anyway, money line short favorites.
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  That's why you money line short favorites that that right there
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  is the is the reason why Cal State Fullerton.
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  So overall 3 and 2 + 0.48 units a winning night.
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  I'll take a half unit every single time.
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  Let's see if we can now turn the page and find a winning night
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  here for tonight. So I want to start off with some
• 5:27
  action because this is of course, one of my favorite days
• 5:30
  of the week. Obviously college football
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  Saturdays are the big days, but it's something about, you know,
• 5:35
  Tuesday matching which kind of gets you going Wednesday and
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  we've had some decent success with these matching games.
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  So so we can get some more winners here for tonight.
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  So I want to start off with an early game Akron against Kent
• 5:47
  State. Now going into this one 7:00
• 5:50
  game Akron, these are two bad teams.
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  They come in two and eight and lost two straight.
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  Just came up short against Northern Illinois 2916 did
• 5:58
  cover, however, as a 14 point Rd. dog.
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  Meanwhile, Kent State, Julian Edelman's alma mater O and 10.
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  They haven't won a single game this year.
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  Just lost to Miami, OH 34 to 7:00, but they did cover.
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  They were getting 30 1/2 in that one as a road dog.
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  So what do we see across the market here?
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  Well, I'm not going to play the side.
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  It did move toward Akron. You know, they open like -9 1/2.
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  They're up to -10 -, 10 1/2. They're getting 62% bets, 76%
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  money at Circa, which if you hadn't noticed yet at, at
• 6:27
  visen.com, which I, I, I'm a betting analyst for and I write
• 6:31
  the daily sharp reports for, We now get access to the Circa
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  splits. So again, taking advantage of a
• 6:37
  sharper book and kind of comparing and contrasting those
• 6:39
  splits to what DraftKings is offering can give us a better
• 6:42
  understanding of where the sharp betters are at.
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  But at Circa, you are looking at 71% of bets, 91% of dollars on
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  Akron. So lines going to Akron.
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  If you want to leave the points, I'm not going to argue with you.
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  They are public. Obviously, Kent State is
• 6:56
  terrible. You could make a case.
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  It's, you know, an opportunity to buy law on Kent State getting
• 7:00
  10 1/2. I kind of just want nothing to
• 7:02
  do with that side. But what I am going to do is
• 7:04
  play the total. Give me the under 49 1/2 here.
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  I'm looking toward a lower scoring game hopefully.
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  And there's a couple reasons why I like this under #1 is that
• 7:14
  it's fallen. It opened at around 50 1/2.
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  It's now down to 49 1/2. So it tells me you had some
• 7:19
  respect to money hit that under 'cause that total to drop.
• 7:22
  Now at DraftKings, the total is 50%, both sides.
• 7:26
  So 50% / 50% under in terms of the ticket count.
• 7:30
  So that tells us that the public doesn't know which way to go.
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  However, if you'll get the dollar amount here, 61% of
• 7:37
  dollars are on the under. So you have a 5050 line move
• 7:40
  toward the under. We got a low bets, higher
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  dollars bets split to the under. And remember 5050.
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  Theoretically, a line shouldn't move at all because technically
• 7:48
  the the actions bounce. There's no reason for the odds
• 7:50
  makers to adjust upward or downward.
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  So 5050, yet it fell tells me smart money.
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  The bigger, sharper wagers are going under.
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  Now circa. This is what caught my eye.
• 8:00
  The total at circa the under is getting 78% of bets but 97% of
• 8:06
  money. So that is a sharp book that's
• 8:08
  taking a lot of lot of big money on that under.
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  I also like the fact that these are two really slow teams.
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  If you look at Akron, they're 113th in terms of pace of play.
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  Kent State is 1/29. And remember, there's only 134
• 8:22
  teams in college football. So we are looking at the bottom
• 8:25
  of the barrel in terms of two slow teams that don't want a lot
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  of plays that want to run the ball.
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  Again, that's good for an underage chew up the clock.
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  Also, it's a little bit of a windy under.
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  You know, it's technically not a windy under because windy unders
• 8:38
  you have to have at least 10 mph or more sustained winds.
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  So this is more around 7 mile per hour winds.
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  But I did notice the gusts throughout the game could be up
• 8:47
  to 15 mph. So again, this you're not
• 8:50
  playing the under solely based on a windy under, but you got a
• 8:53
  little bit of wind in this one with a couple teams that are
• 8:56
  very slow paced with some sharp money that's going under here.
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  So add it all up guys. I'm looking for a low scoring
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  game. Give me Akron and Kent State
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  under 49 1/2 and I would mention rhythm.
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  They have a 49.2 and a 48.6 so you're slightly below that
• 9:12
  number. But I'm going to go Akron and
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  Kent State under 49 1/2 now. My favorite bet of the night.
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  Which doesn't mean I'm risking 5 units on it.
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  A whale, a Max bomb. No, every bet is always risking
• 9:24
  one unit no matter, no matter what it is.
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  I just want to get that straight.
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  But I'm excited to sweat this one because it looks really
• 9:30
  sharp. Northern Illinois and Miami,
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  Ohio, 8:00 game here tonight. Most heavily bet game of the
• 9:36
  night. Northern Illinois comes in six
• 9:38
  and four. They've won two straight, just
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  beat Akron, as we mentioned 2916 didn't cover though as a 14
• 9:44
  point home favorite. You know, Miami, Ohio, also six
• 9:47
  and four. They've won five straight games.
• 9:49
  Just took down Kent State 34. Seven, as you mentioned, didn't
• 9:52
  cover though, as a 30 1/2 point home favorite.
• 9:55
  So we seen across the market here.
• 9:56
  Well, Miami, Ohio opened as a 3 1/2 point home favorite and all
• 10:01
  movement liability is on Northern Illinois in the points.
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  I love the Huskies here guys. This open plus 3 1/2 Northern
• 10:08
  Illinois. Now it's down to 2 1/2 even 2
• 10:12
  some books even down to 1 1/2. Now I got Northern Illinois plus
• 10:15
  2 1/2 and I would just mention all the best bets from the all
• 10:19
  systems go pod are now available on juice reel and I did put this
• 10:22
  out at 2 1/2 earlier today. So again, if you want to support
• 10:26
  the pod, it's 499 a week. It's a cup of coffee.
• 10:30
  Whether you want to support the pod and think of it as a tip jar
• 10:33
  or here's an advantage, you get access to these best bets, you
• 10:36
  get better numbers. Like if you were following on
• 10:38
  Juice Real, you would have gotten a 2 1/2 earlier today.
• 10:41
  Again, now some shops are down to two or even 1 1/2.
• 10:43
  So just want to mention that you can just search ASG under score
• 10:46
  podcast or you'll see the link in the bio description of the
• 10:49
  pod or my Twitter account at Josh under score insights.
• 10:52
  So I'm on the 2 1/2 at least right now.
• 10:54
  Shop around and try to find a 2 because a lot of books are down
• 10:57
  to 1 1/2, but I'm still taking Northern Illinois.
• 10:59
  One thing I like is they're the contrarian play.
• 11:02
  You have the public, 71% of bets go in Miami, Ohio.
• 11:06
  They're at home. It's a short number.
• 11:08
  They've won five straight again, or they won, yeah, five
• 11:11
  straight. So play Miami, Ohio, but no, the
• 11:13
  lines going toward Northern Illinois.
• 11:15
  So why would the odds makers be dropping the Miami, Ohio number,
• 11:19
  making it easier for the public to cover when the public's
• 11:21
  already hammering Miami, OH, to begin with?
• 11:23
  Again, because they take in a position and said we respect
• 11:26
  this money coming in on Northern Illinois.
• 11:30
  Now if you look at circa, Northern Illinois is only
• 11:32
  getting 39% of bets but 63% of money.
• 11:35
  It's a pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split
• 11:38
  mentioned at DraftKings, only 29% of bets on Northern Illinois
• 11:42
  and this is the most heavily bet game of the night.
• 11:43
  So that's just again one of your best contrarian plays tonight.
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  Also system matches, remember our short row dogs getting 4
• 11:50
  points or less? They're 54% against the spread.
• 11:53
  The last decade may not sound great, but remember 52.38% is
• 11:57
  your break even mark with -110 juice and the reason for that is
• 12:02
  short Rd. dogs 4 or less. Typically you get 3 points for
• 12:05
  home field. If you're a short Rd. dog three
• 12:07
  or less or four or less. It means that on a neutral field
• 12:10
  it's basically a pick em game. Also Northern Illinois dog who
• 12:14
  can score system match. They're averaging 26 points a
• 12:16
  game. Better offense than Miami Ohio
• 12:18
  so keep pace or back to our cover.
• 12:20
  Also want to sell high on Miami Ohio because again, they've won
• 12:23
  five straight so let's let's bet against them.
• 12:26
  They're at their high watermark. And then last but not least, I
• 12:29
  was reading about, I was doing my research on this game,
• 12:32
  Northern Illinois is really good running the ball.
• 12:34
  They're 13th in the country, 209 rushing yards per game.
• 12:38
  Ohio ranks 81st, 141 yards per game.
• 12:41
  So hopefully you run the ball, you know, control the pace.
• 12:45
  I would love to see Northern Illinois win this game outright
• 12:48
  again. I got plus 2 1/2.
• 12:50
  Rhythm has Northern Illinois plus 1.7 and plus 1.1.
• 12:55
  And then also our friends at Juice Reel, there's sharp mush,
• 12:59
  20% sharp mush system match on Northern Illinois.
• 13:02
  So Northern Illinois checking off quite a few boxes.
• 13:04
  Again, doesn't mean you've got 5 units on it.
• 13:06
  It's one unit like any other bet.
• 13:08
  But I'm excited to sweat the Huskies tonight.
• 13:10
  I got Northern Illinois again, plus 2 1/2.
• 13:12
  Now try to find at least a 2, if not a 1 1/2.
• 13:16
  So Northern Illinois in the points.
• 13:17
  Akron, Kent State under 49 1/2. Now let's go over to some
• 13:21
  college basketball. Big slate tonight around 45
• 13:25
  games. I'm going to go to a game that
• 13:27
  kind of reminds me of last night.
• 13:29
  I remember last night we were able to get our San Diego State
• 13:31
  Gonzaga under. It was a late night, very
• 13:34
  heavily back game. Public was playing the over, yet
• 13:36
  the total fell. Will Purdue Marquette reminds me
• 13:39
  I got Deja vu. It looks like the same exact
• 13:41
  situation. So I like the under Purdue
• 13:43
  Marquette now Purdue Marquette in terms of the side, you know,
• 13:48
  Marquette open as a 5 point favorite.
• 13:50
  They're still around A5 point favorite.
• 13:52
  If you look at the best splits for this game and we just pull
• 13:56
  them up. You currently have Purdue.
• 13:59
  Let me find it for you. They're kind of a trendy dog.
• 14:02
  They're getting 65% of bets. I don't really want anything to
• 14:04
  do with that game in terms of the side, but I love the total.
• 14:08
  I'll tell you why I like the total.
• 14:09
  First off is that the public's going over 70% of bets are
• 14:13
  taking Purdue Marquette over now.
• 14:15
  The total open around 1:54. It's now down to 152 1/2.
• 14:20
  You might find a 153 out there if you if you try hard enough.
• 14:23
  But if 71% of bets are on the over, why did the total fall?
• 14:27
  You know, why did the line drop? This looks just like Gonzaga
• 14:30
  last night. It's on Fox Sports 19 o'clock
• 14:32
  game. Most heavily bet game of the
• 14:33
  night. Even if you take away the sharp
• 14:35
  reverse line move to the under, this would be just a really good
• 14:38
  contrarian play. Most heavily bet game.
• 14:40
  Everyone playing the over. Let's bet against the drunk guys
• 14:42
  at the bar and go under. So you have only 30% on the
• 14:46
  under, yet the total fell at circa 50% of bets.
• 14:50
  But over 90% of money is on the under.
• 14:53
  So again, good sharp bet. That's what they're toward that
• 14:56
  under. Now rhythm is right on the
• 14:58
  #151.5151 point 8. So again, 152 1/2 of the hook
• 15:04
  could be meaningful here. But I was also looking at pace
• 15:06
  of play, which is a stat available on on Kenpom.
• 15:10
  If you look at, I think it's, it's tempo or yeah, I think it's
• 15:13
  called tempo or adjusted tempo. But Purdue is one of the slower
• 15:16
  teams in college football or sorry, in college basketball.
• 15:19
  There's 67.9 possessions per game.
• 15:23
  So that's bottom third in college hoops.
• 15:26
  Now Marquette is a little quicker, There's 71.3.
• 15:29
  But still, Purdue, if you're going to Marquette, I think you
• 15:32
  want to keep this game lower scoring, kind of like with San
• 15:34
  Diego State. Last night, San Diego State did
• 15:37
  not cover, lost by 13. The line was -10 and half 11.
• 15:42
  But I think it's the same thought process.
• 15:43
  Keep it lower scoring. You don't want to get into a
• 15:45
  shootout with Marquette. So again, I got deja vu.
• 15:48
  This reminds me a lot of the Gonzaga game.
• 15:51
  I'm going to play another sharp under here, guys.
• 15:53
  If you want to join me, I'm on Purdue Marquette under 152 1/2.
• 15:58
  Now let's get to some obscure sharp line moves that hopefully
• 16:01
  can come through for us. First one here, Fairfield.
• 16:04
  Fairfield at home against Drexel.
• 16:07
  Now this one caught my eye as a really sharp dog to fave line
• 16:11
  move because this game open Drexel on the road. 7:00 game
• 16:14
  tonight as a very short 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
• 16:18
  And now we flipped to Fairfield -1 1/2.
• 16:22
  So again, 7:00 tonight we got Maxion, we got NBA, we got
• 16:26
  hockey, we got everything going on.
• 16:28
  Who's really focusing on Drexel Fairfield?
• 16:30
  Really not a lot of of wise or not a lot of public betters I
• 16:33
  should say. But Fairfield opens as a dog,
• 16:36
  flips to a favorite, tells me that pro betters have targeted
• 16:39
  Fairfield here. So I'm going Fairfield money
• 16:41
  line. I got him at -120 at DraftKings.
• 16:44
  Only 38% of bets are on Fairfield yet they flip dog to
• 16:48
  favorite. So it tells me they got smart
• 16:49
  money in their favor at Rhythm. Rhythm is predicting Fairfield
• 16:53
  to win 69 to 67.8 and I have another model 68.7 to 67.9.
• 16:59
  So both of my money line models have Fairfield winning the game.
• 17:03
  Also a little home Rd. Drexel's O and one on the road
• 17:06
  and they are 6 and 10 on the road.
• 17:07
  Last year, Fairfield's one and O at home this year and they were
• 17:10
  ten and four at home last year. So a little bit of home cooking
• 17:13
  hopefully. And then I was looking at some
• 17:15
  of these supplementary stats, advanced analytics from Ken
• 17:18
  Palm. One thing I noticed is if it's a
• 17:20
  close game, hopefully Fairfield will will hopefully make some
• 17:24
  hay here at the free throw stripe.
• 17:25
  They're shooting 69% from the free throw line, doesn't sound
• 17:28
  great, but Drexel is 63%, so better free throw shooting bench
• 17:34
  minutes, 33% of minutes come from the bench for Fairfield,
• 17:39
  only 22% for Drexel. So Drexel has a shorter bench or
• 17:43
  shorter starting lineup, doesn't play a lot of bench guys,
• 17:46
  Fairfield does. Hopefully that keeps them fresh.
• 17:48
  And then I was looking at experience, which again, I kind
• 17:53
  of starting to look at some of these other stats and like who
• 17:55
  am I? Like not factoring in these
• 17:56
  things. I want to be at least aware of
• 17:57
  them. But the average experience for
• 18:00
  Fairfield is 1.5 years versus only .7 years for Drexel.
• 18:05
  So Fairfield's got more experience.
• 18:07
  They have a a more a bench that contributes more, better free
• 18:11
  throw, shooting dog to fave, line move, reverse line move.
• 18:14
  This is a fade the trendy dog away from Drexel toward
• 18:17
  Fairfield. So I'm going to root hard for
• 18:19
  Fairfield tonight. The Stags.
• 18:21
  I got Fairfield on the money line again.
• 18:23
  What did we learn last night with Cal State Fullerton?
• 18:26
  We ain't laying a 1 1/2. Fairfield wins by one, we lose.
• 18:29
  Let's go. Money line -120 Fairfield Last
• 18:33
  bit of the night, another 7:00 game, SIU Edwardsville against
• 18:37
  Wisconsin Green Bay. Now sharp move here in favor of
• 18:42
  Wisconsin Green Bay. This game open Green Bay.
• 18:45
  The Phoenix about a 1 1/2 point favorite at home.
• 18:48
  We've now seen the Phoenix get but up to -3 1/2.
• 18:52
  Now why is that notable? Because again, it's a low back
• 18:54
  game with not a ton of public support or even interest yet.
• 18:59
  Sharp line move toward Green Bay at DraftKings.
• 19:01
  Green Bay is getting 60% of bets but 75% of money.
• 19:05
  This is a money line play for me.
• 19:06
  I know it's a little pricey, but if you shop around, you probably
• 19:10
  can find Wisconsin Green Bay. I think I got him at -160
• 19:14
  There's high as -170 at some shops.
• 19:15
  So definitely shop around. But I noticed that circa the
• 19:18
  money line splits are really good for Wisconsin Green Bay.
• 19:21
  25% bets but 91% money. So it tells me a lot of big
• 19:25
  money came in on Wisconsin Green Bay to win the game.
• 19:29
  Now, Rhythm has a couple projections here of Wisconsin.
• 19:31
  Green Bay winning 75.7 to 73.6 or 76.2 to 72.4.
• 19:38
  Also, it reminds me of Cal State Fullerton last night because
• 19:41
  remember last night Cal State Fullerton was O and four and
• 19:44
  they're playing a team that was two and two, yet Cal State
• 19:47
  Fullerton was getting that sharp line move.
• 19:48
  Like, doesn't make sense, right? Well, if you look at Green Bay,
• 19:52
  they're one and three. Edwardsville is 4 and 2.
• 19:56
  So why is the line moving toward Green Bay if they have the worst
• 19:59
  record? Again, just like Cal State
• 20:02
  Fullerton last night, I want to embrace that fishy side.
• 20:05
  Also, I'm going to bank on Green Bay's offense, hopefully to lead
• 20:08
  them to victory. Their offensive efficiency is
• 20:11
  166 in the country versus 259 for Edwardsville.
• 20:15
  Effective field goal percentage, 6860, eighth in the country
• 20:19
  versus 218. And then free throws, big
• 20:22
  discrepancy. Free throws 80%, Green Bay 60%
• 20:26
  for Edwardsville. So again, not laying the 3 1/2.
• 20:29
  We would hate to see Wisconsin Green Bay win by 1-2 or three
• 20:32
  and we lose. So I'm going to go money line
• 20:34
  here. Give me Green Bay -160 so
• 20:37
  Fairfield -120 Green Bay -160 the Purdue Marquette under 152
• 20:43
  1/2. As always, guys, A5 pack.
• 20:45
  Let's see if we can scratch and claw our way to get three of
• 20:48
  them. Now I want to hit on a couple
• 20:50
  games in college and the NFL for this upcoming weekend.
• 20:52
  That caught my eye. Hopefully we can get a head
• 20:54
  start on a couple of these. One that I first noticed is the
• 20:58
  most heavily bet game this weekend, Colorado and Kansas.
• 21:02
  Now this is a 330 game on Saturday and everyone's playing
• 21:05
  Colorado. I get it, they look great.
• 21:07
  Travis Hunters Heisman favorite Sugar Sanders might be the
• 21:10
  number one pick. They're ranked 16th, but
• 21:14
  Colorado was kind of hanging. They open around a 2 1/2 point
• 21:18
  favorite. They got up to -3 and now all
• 21:21
  those threes are back down to 2 1/2 and Colorado is getting,
• 21:26
  let's see, 67% of spread bets. So everyone's playing Colorado,
• 21:32
  yet every time he gets to three, it comes back down to 2 1/2.
• 21:35
  So this is a play where I'm going to be on Kansas +3.
• 21:39
  Now, if you're at a book that doesn't offer a three right now,
• 21:41
  let's wait this thing out because again, they lose by
• 21:44
  three. We want to be able to push.
• 21:45
  That's that half point is security.
• 21:47
  If you lose by three, you'd rather push then lose your bet.
• 21:50
  Now Kansas win, wins out, right? It won't matter if it doesn't
• 21:53
  get to three. I'll play the 2 1/2, but let's
• 21:55
  try to be selective. It's only Tuesday, it's a
• 21:57
  Saturday game. Try to hold out for Kansas plus
• 22:00
  3. Kansas is only getting actually
• 22:04
  at DraftKings, only getting 24% of bets at at Circa.
• 22:09
  What did I say? They're getting 32% of bets but
• 22:14
  nearly 80% of money. They're unranked versus ranked.
• 22:18
  They're a dog who can score system match.
• 22:20
  And this is one of your top contrarian plays.
• 22:21
  Most heavily back game of the week.
• 22:23
  So again, everyone's playing Colorado, but every time it gets
• 22:26
  the three, it comes right back down.
• 22:27
  So let's hold out for a three. But Kansas plus three I have my
• 22:31
  eye on this weekend. Another bet that I would
• 22:33
  consider making now sooner rather than later.
• 22:37
  You can hold out, but keep your eye on UCLAUCLA is at home
• 22:40
  against USC. It's a 1030 game, late night on
• 22:43
  Saturday, but everyone's playing USC in this one.
• 22:46
  The openness high is -5 1/2 -, 6.
• 22:49
  The line's down to four and a half.
• 22:50
  And the reason why I said you might want to bet it sooner
• 22:52
  rather than later is I see two shops that are juiced toward
• 22:55
  UCLA, plus 4 1/2 at -115 So does it fall to four?
• 23:00
  We want to get the hook now. I do see another book that's
• 23:03
  juicing up the USC side. So it's always kind of hard to,
• 23:05
  if you don't have uniform juice movement painted across the
• 23:08
  market, it's kind of hard to, you know, decide whether or not
• 23:11
  to play it now or wait. But unlike in UCLA in the
• 23:14
  points, they have a one day rest advantage.
• 23:17
  Also, it's a buy low, sell high. They're coming off a loss.
• 23:19
  USC is off a win and USC is O and four on the road this year.
• 23:24
  And this would be a conference dog system match with UCLA.
• 23:28
  So Publix all over at UCLA or sorry, Publix all over USC.
• 23:33
  They're getting around 66% of bets.
• 23:36
  Yet this thing has been tumbling down to UCLA.
• 23:38
  So keep an eye on UCLA if you want to play the four and a
• 23:40
  half. Now, I don't hate that we can
• 23:44
  wait or play it, but at least keep your eye on UCLA.
• 23:46
  So Kansas, UCLA, those are my early sharp leans for this
• 23:50
  weekend. I wanted to mention a couple
• 23:52
  games in the NFL. It's early here as well, but I
• 23:56
  know it's a ways away. But Monday night, Baltimore and
• 23:59
  the Chargers, Ravens, Chargers. This one's interesting because
• 24:04
  I'm thinking we should maybe grab the three right now with
• 24:07
  the Chargers. This is Monday Night Football.
• 24:09
  Everyone's playing Baltimore. Baltimore is getting 73% of
• 24:14
  bets, but Baltimore open -3 and they're really juiced up toward
• 24:18
  the Chargers. So they are basically Chargers
• 24:21
  plus three at -120 And I do see one book that's kind of down to
• 24:26
  2 1/2. So this is one of those plays
• 24:28
  where you're going to be contrarian with the Chargers.
• 24:31
  You also want to get the three before it falls to 2 1/2.
• 24:35
  And you do have some good system matches.
• 24:36
  Primetime dog, conference dog. Herbert as a dog has been really
• 24:40
  good. You don't have great stats for
• 24:44
  Lamar Jackson as a road favorite.
• 24:46
  But I'm leaning pretty hard on Chargers +3.
• 24:49
  And I'm thinking maybe we should get it now because I'd be
• 24:51
  surprised it went to 3 1/2 because, again, it's juiced
• 24:54
  toward the Chargers. And really, it's not like -3 -,
• 24:59
  120 like it's going to 3 1/2. It looks like it's going down to
• 25:01
  2 1/2. So I'm actually thinking of
• 25:03
  grabbing Chargers right now at +3.
• 25:05
  I think I may do that once we finish the pot.
• 25:08
  At least I know I'll be contrarian and I will get the
• 25:10
  key number there. Keep an eye out for the Packers.
• 25:13
  That's another game that caught my eye there at home against San
• 25:15
  Francisco. Sharp line, move toward the
• 25:17
  Pack. The look head was actually 49ers
• 25:21
  like -1 -, 2 on the road. Now it's flipped to Green Bay -2
• 25:25
  1/2 at home. Green Bay is only getting 38% of
• 25:28
  bets. Publix on San Fran yet the lines
• 25:29
  going to Green Bay on the money line.
• 25:32
  This is going to be a money line play for me.
• 25:33
  Green Bay 20% bets, 69% money at Circa.
• 25:37
  Now my only not concerned, but the reason why I probably want
• 25:41
  to wait on this a little bit is I'm thinking this line went to
• 25:44
  Green Bay a little bit because you have a lot of injuries to
• 25:47
  the 49ers and you actually had Brock Purdy pop up on the injury
• 25:53
  report. So is this a pure sharp move on
• 25:55
  Green Bay or is it moving because Purdy might be banged
• 25:59
  up? They also have a lot of guys,
• 26:00
  Kittle and I feel like every week, you know, the 49ers have
• 26:04
  all their big players questionable.
• 26:05
  So we will have to wait on that, but keep an eye on Green Bay.
• 26:08
  Green Bay could be a sharp dog to fade line move.
• 26:10
  And then again, I might be scarred from playing Cowboys
• 26:13
  games. But Dallas Washington, if you
• 26:16
  can get under 45 1/2, that is a windy under.
• 26:20
  So we got 12 mile power winds at FedEx Field.
• 26:23
  That is also a outdoor divisional under.
• 26:27
  So I'm looking at maybe the under Dallas Washington 45 1/2,
• 26:30
  but I will keep an eye on that one as well.
• 26:33
  So just want to hit on a few games, get you guys excited for
• 26:35
  this weekend. You can play them now, you can
• 26:37
  wait, but at least have your have your eyes on them over the
• 26:41
  next few days. But that about does it for
• 26:43
  episode 166 of the All Systems Go sports betting pod powered by
• 26:48
  rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 26:49
  where we wrap things up, and I start by first thanking you for
• 26:52
  taking the time out of your busy lives to listen to the pod and
• 26:55
  sweat some sharp contrarian breakdowns with me and later in
• 26:59
  the night sweat the games with me as well.
• 27:01
  But if you want to do me a favor and make me happy, please give
• 27:05
  this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 27:08
  It would really mean a lot. Help us to grow the pod.
• 27:10
  If you want to recommend it to a friend or click the follow
• 27:13
  button or leave a, you know, a positive review, that'll be
• 27:16
  great as well. But please, five stars would
• 27:19
  would mean a lot to me. We're up to, I think, 285 star
• 27:22
  reviews. So let's let's get to 300 before
• 27:25
  before the end of the new year. How about that?
• 27:28
  Now if you enjoyed this pot as well and you want to learn more
• 27:31
  about data-driven, sharp, contrary and betting, of course,
• 27:34
  Thanksgivings coming up. Then we got Christmas, Hanukkah,
• 27:37
  New Year's. It's about to be the holiday
• 27:39
  season. Let me think You have no
• 27:41
  freaking clue what to get your dad, your son, your uncle, your
• 27:45
  aunt, your neighbor, your colleague, the white elephant,
• 27:49
  Yankee swap, Secret Santa, whatever they call it, wherever
• 27:52
  you are. I have an idea.
• 27:54
  You should buy them the Everything Guide to Sports
• 27:56
  betting. It's a book written by myself.
• 27:58
  I'm very proud of it. It's got everything I've learned
• 28:00
  in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
• 28:02
  they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 28:04
  action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
• 28:07
  for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
• 28:10
  included in the Everything Guide to sports Betting.
• 28:12
  So go to Amazon.com, grab one and you can bring it to the
• 28:17
  book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
• 28:18
  buy you a beer or ginger ale. But it makes a great stocking
• 28:21
  stuffer and it's less than 20 bucks.
• 28:24
  Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of juice
• 28:27
  reel or rhythm yet My two favorite sports betting apps you
• 28:31
  look at rhythm great with their AI backed models and predictions
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  for best bets and player props helped us cash Dalton Schultz
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  over last night then juice reel, which now all of the all systems
• 28:42
  go podcast best bets are posted on juice reel and social tab.
• 28:47
  So if you want to support the team and think of it as a thank
• 28:50
  you for all the free insights. I would love for you guys to
• 28:53
  sign up and and get get that that access to the best bets.
• 28:58
  But in this, in addition to that, you're going to get
• 29:00
  obviously your sharp mush indicators looking at where the
• 29:03
  pros and Joe's are at for each game.
• 29:05
  We're also looking at arbitrage opportunities.
• 29:07
  You can sync up your sports books.
• 29:09
  It's all available on juice rail as well as the Robo Jackson best
• 29:12
  bet plays. So please, you can sign up using
• 29:16
  those custom links so that rhythm and juice rail know that
• 29:19
  I sent you, but give it a shot. Rhythm and juice show.
• 29:21
  They help me when they're going to help you win.
• 29:23
  So that about does it, everybody.
• 29:24
  Another pod here in the books. Of course.
• 29:26
  I'll leave you with two things. First, whether I see you at the
• 29:29
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
• 29:32
  in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
• 29:35
  at the Encore in Boston or Plainridge Park Casino or MGM
• 29:38
  Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
• 29:40
  Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
• 29:43
  get down or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the
• 29:45
  lowest use possible is found. The South Point or Sweat and
• 29:48
  sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium swim pool when
• 29:51
  you catch a big ticket at Circa. Or of course, wherever you may
• 29:56
  be cashing tickets left and right, but wherever maybe you're
• 29:59
  going to walk up to me. Now, don't show me the Cowboys
• 30:02
  game, the points, the under puke in your mouth, but show me a
• 30:06
  Dalton Schultz over. Show me a Gonzaga under.
• 30:10
  Show me a Cal State Fullerton money line.
• 30:12
  That's why you money line. Short favorites, baby.
• 30:15
  That's why right there. But guess what?
• 30:18
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 30:19
  We'll post about the book and sweat some sharp contrarian
• 30:22
  data-driven plays together. As always, my parting words,
• 30:25
  stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
• 30:28
  Place yourself on the side of the house.
• 30:29
  Always be with the smart money, never against it.
• 30:32
  Will smart money win every time? No, unfortunately it won't.
• 30:35
  That under was sharp as a tack. It sailed over at the very end.
• 30:39
  Sometimes that's going to happen, but here's the thing,
• 30:41
  smart money is going to win the majority of the time long term
• 30:44
  between 55 to 60%. That's why we always want to be
• 30:47
  with the sharp money and not against it.
• 30:49
  And if we can stay true to our model, our data-driven approach,
• 30:52
  betting with our head and not our heart, not betting based on
• 30:55
  what we think or want or hope will happen, but betting based
• 30:58
  upon what the market is telling us, picking up on the clues of
• 31:02
  where's the public, where are the sharps?
• 31:03
  You know, where's the smart money leaning where our system
• 31:06
  matches. If we can do that, we can be
• 31:07
  against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bat,
• 31:10
  avoid parlays and get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 31:14
  to be successful sports bettors. So have a great Tuesday night,
• 31:17
  everybody. We got a 5 pack in college.
• 31:19
  See if we can get three or more nick out winning day.
• 31:22
  But I wish you the best of luck and we'll be right back at it
• 31:25
  for tomorrow. A big Wednesday edition, episode
• 31:27
  167 of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
• 31:32
  rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
• 31:34
  great Tuesday night.