Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Market Liquidations, VIX Rules, and the SpaceMobile Connectivity Shift
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:10It will just basically come the phone be seamless regardless of
- 0:14where you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:16know that it's connected by satellite.
- 0:21Listen. The opportunity that we have is
- 0:23very, very, very large. Everyone, I figured I'd catch up
- 0:30before going to bed ahead of tomorrow.
- 0:33It looks like, as I mentioned in the tweet earlier, it looks like
- 0:38there's some pretty serious liquidations going on after
- 0:41hours, which is pretty natural. I mean, it's not not good for
- 0:45people who are getting liquidated, but it's the system
- 0:49working. You know, there's people who are
- 0:52probably too levered and have gotten margin calls and are
- 0:58being forced by brokers to either come up with the cash or
- 1:02sell positions. And so you saw some of that
- 1:04happen after hours today. And you know, I saw it happen
- 1:08with AST where stock closed at 93.
- 1:11And then there was just for selling all the way down to
- 1:14maybe it was like 86 or so. And then it's kind of stabilized
- 1:18and came back and overnight, I guess it's at 90.
- 1:21But I would expect this action to keep going tomorrow morning
- 1:27because there's going to be additional margin calls, people
- 1:30who didn't post collateral, they're going to have to sell.
- 1:33And so there's going to be perhaps more of this in the
- 1:36morning and perhaps up the open as well.
- 1:40And then, you know, we'll see how things go from there.
- 1:44So nothing to freak out about. It's just part of markets.
- 1:49You know, there's there's been a cross board de risking and you
- 1:55know, I think taking a step back, if you look at crypto, I
- 1:58mean, it's pretty crazy what's happened.
- 2:01Well, pretty crazy in the sense of this whole idea that crypto
- 2:07was becoming more institutional and widely held.
- 2:10And perhaps this time was different.
- 2:12And you know, this administration was supportive of
- 2:16crypto as well. And so you had Bitcoin moving to
- 2:19126,000. I I think that was the top and
- 2:23now we're at 64,000. So it's basically cut in half,
- 2:27which I think for people who were either new to crypto and
- 2:32who are also institutional investors, maybe this is coming
- 2:35as a big surprise to them. But for anyone who's been in
- 2:38crypto in multiple cycles, which I have, it's not, it's not a
- 2:43surprise. It's it's actually just part of
- 2:47being in crypto where, you know, once you hit all time highs,
- 2:52everyone always thinks like, OK, this time will be different
- 2:55because XY and Z, so many more people have adopted it.
- 2:58It's becoming a more stable, you know, asset.
- 3:04And then people expect something different to happen, whereas you
- 3:09eventually get a pretty severe drawdown, right.
- 3:11So at least historically that was somewhere between 80 to 90%.
- 3:17And because I remember, I think I mentioned earlier today that
- 3:21I, I had Bitcoin at maybe 5 or 6000 average.
- 3:26I don't think that's right. Actually, I think it was around
- 3:28maybe it was around 8 or 9000. But I remember buying back in,
- 3:34remember my sister telling me about Ethereum like at 70 bucks.
- 3:37And then Bitcoin. I guess it was like at that
- 3:41time, I forget exactly how, how much it was, but I, I didn't get
- 3:44involved until, and I remember poo pooing crypto currencies,
- 3:48but I got involved in Bitcoin. I think I bought my first at
- 3:50like 11,000 and then I kept buying up to 20 and then of
- 3:55course, it immediately collapsed and I bought all the way down.
- 3:59I started buying at 1196 and then I bought like a pretty big
- 4:02slug at 3000 And I, I, I, I remember just being down and
- 4:07feeling like a complete sucker, you know, and that, and that was
- 4:10like a winter, but that was crypto winter for quite some
- 4:13time. I owned, I think it was like 45
- 4:16Bitcoin and I owned, I think it was like 2 or 300 Ethereum and I
- 4:22was down bad on, on, on those on that.
- 4:25And then I remember just holding on and then eventually it
- 4:30rebounding and getting, I remember selling like I told a
- 4:33number of people on, on the discord, I used to be on that.
- 4:37I, I, when it hit like 64,000, I, I sold like 2/3 and then I
- 4:41was like, I'll keep 1/3 of it. And then I thought better of it.
- 4:44I just remembered like my experience and how I, how awful
- 4:48I felt when it was down to 3000. And so I sold the rest at, I
- 4:52think it was like 55 or 56. And then, and then, you know, I,
- 4:57and that's when I started getting involved in Spax and
- 4:59other things. But I remember when it did pull
- 5:03back to it was like 20,000 or so I'm looking at it.
- 5:07I was like, oh, maybe I'll buy some.
- 5:09And then I, I was like, no, I don't, I don't ever want to
- 5:11touch it again. And then of course, it went on
- 5:14to hit 125,126. And so, you know, how far can it
- 5:19go now? Who knows, right?
- 5:21I think obviously there's much more interest behind it.
- 5:26I mean, probably a decent amount of interest will evaporate just
- 5:29like every cycle, right? Like you, you have these
- 5:31extremes in crypto where people really believe in it and then
- 5:37they a decent amount of I guess tourist or new people, they give
- 5:41up on it when you have these really violent drawdowns.
- 5:45And then for the people that hold and they continue, you
- 5:48know, you have this like continued innovation of
- 5:51different, you know, apps and what what have you.
- 5:55Eventually it does come back. And so is it going to get back
- 5:58to 120,000 probably at some point in the future?
- 6:01But can it keep going down? Yeah, that's also a possibility.
- 6:06Like maybe maybe it gets back down to 30,000 or 40,000.
- 6:12But yeah, I mean, would I buy it there?
- 6:15Yeah, I might buy a little bit, but it's not an asset that I
- 6:19want to hold in size. Like I think I think anybody who
- 6:23is involved in cryptocurrency, like it should not be something
- 6:26you own inside. It's something that maybe you
- 6:28own out of interest and just like a few percent here there.
- 6:31But but anyway, but yeah, that the the big draw down in
- 6:38cryptocurrency, I think is having a pretty big impact on
- 6:42markets. And then of course, you've got
- 6:43all the confluence of all these other, you know, these other
- 6:48things that are putting pressure, whether it's the fears
- 6:52of AI. And so it's kind of funny, some
- 6:54people are posted, rightly so, the the paradox right now, which
- 6:58is for software companies that have any potential inkling that
- 7:04that they might get disrupted, they're getting completely
- 7:06punished. And I was joking with someone
- 7:09today that maybe if you're a smash and grab short seller, you
- 7:13should just your thesis for any company you should just put out
- 7:16there is and it's and it should be written by AI.
- 7:18By the way, you should put out a thesis that, hey, this company
- 7:22is going to get impacted by AI and then the stock will crater
- 7:25and then you can cover. I mean, that's what happened
- 7:28today for all these financial data services companies, facts
- 7:33that S&P, Moody's, Morningstar, like these companies.
- 7:41I guess it was maybe it was Anthropic that came out today
- 7:43and said, Hey, we're going to release this new model that can
- 7:47put together a very comprehensive research report
- 7:50that would take a human analyst a number of days to complete.
- 7:53But we're going to do this and we're going to release that.
- 7:57And, and that caused a tremendous amount of pressure on
- 8:00all these companies, which I, I guess I can kind of understand.
- 8:04But on the other hand, like this, this, the idea of this
- 8:07product is, is been out there and, and you can basically, I
- 8:11mean, there's people doing on Twitter now.
- 8:12You can basically create prompts, whether that's in
- 8:16Gemini or ChatGPT or Anthropic or whatever.
- 8:19I mean, Claude, you can do that already.
- 8:23And it's, you know, that these reports are OK primers.
- 8:27Maybe that maybe what anthropic is doing is probably is better
- 8:31than the stuff that you can do yourself.
- 8:33But you know, I, I think, I think there is some value in, in
- 8:38that work. But at the same time, I don't at
- 8:41least me, maybe I'm just old school.
- 8:43I, whenever I see, and I, I've tweeted about this before,
- 8:46whenever I see stuff that's generated by AII, it just starts
- 8:50when I start glossing over it because it's just so structured.
- 8:54And I don't know, it's expected. Like there's no human element or
- 9:00judgment or yeah, I, I don't know what it is.
- 9:04But when you read AI generated stuff, it's helpful and it, it
- 9:08helps like multiply your ability to do leverage or sorry,
- 9:12leverage the Freudian slip and multilize your ability to do
- 9:15research. But then when you read it, it's,
- 9:19it's, I don't know, it just comes across as very flat and
- 9:22I'd start losing attention for whatever reason.
- 9:25So at least for me, I mean, I, I still like doing my own research
- 9:30and of course I use AI to, to help organize information and
- 9:34data. But but yeah, I like, I like
- 9:37putting together my own analysis in, in a spreadsheet.
- 9:41You know, I'm the type of person that has to do something to
- 9:43learn. Like when I, when I spread a
- 9:48company's financials, like if I just look at a research report
- 9:50and look at financials, like I don't actually absorb it.
- 9:53I actually have to put it into a spreadsheet.
- 9:55And as I do that, then I actually understand the numbers
- 10:00and you know, I get down in the nitty gritty and that's how I
- 10:04actually understand concepts, which is like when I did some
- 10:07work on T1 energy and I just laid out the numbers of like,
- 10:11oh, the, the equity offering they did in the convert and then
- 10:14the funds that they raised from 45X tax credit sales.
- 10:17Like I, I could read a research report and or have AI try to do
- 10:22that for me and it probably would spit out some slop, but
- 10:26but actually going through that process makes made me learn it
- 10:32and understand it better, if that makes sense.
- 10:34And so I think there's some things at least or for me, going
- 10:40through that manual process actually is very helpful and
- 10:42it's a way that I learn. But yeah, I think the what
- 10:49what's happening in the market today, obviously there's like
- 10:51there's all these different factors that are coming to play,
- 10:54which is, you know, the Fed, Kevin Wash people are talking
- 10:59about like how this guy is, is hawkish.
- 11:02But I guess in my, in my opinion, for him to make it this
- 11:06far and this is like his last chance, I think he's going to be
- 11:10a complete completely aligned with Trump.
- 11:13And so whether that's cutting rates or being accommodative and
- 11:17it, and it's actually a very useful foil that this guy has a
- 11:21hawkish background, because then if he makes decisions, people,
- 11:26he'll, he'll be able to say, well, I'm a hawkish person.
- 11:28And, and I, from what I see, it's a time to cut, you know,
- 11:33it's like there's all these layoffs that are happening and a
- 11:36is deflationary. And so we need to lower rates.
- 11:39And I did tweet earlier today that if you look at the, I'm
- 11:44actually a pretty big believer in true flation.
- 11:46They, they, they provide real time inflation data and they
- 11:51collect thousands of data points and they provide what real time
- 11:56inflation is doing. And that hit this past month,
- 11:59I'd actually went under 1%, but it's today was like at 1%.
- 12:03And so if you look at their, their inflation information
- 12:07versus what what the Fed follows, they're about 1/2 as as
- 12:14far as three months ahead of where the Fed is.
- 12:17And so today, the reason why I posted that today is there was
- 12:19some Fed governor who's still job owning that inflation is, is
- 12:23very, is very stubborn. And so they're going to have to
- 12:27continue to be very cautious. Whereas like the real time data
- 12:30is saying, oh, we're actually about to hit, you know, go into
- 12:33a deflationary environment, like year over year inflation is at 1
- 12:37and, and looks like it's going to go lower.
- 12:40And if you look at, you know, one of my concerns about
- 12:43inflation was like, well, what about these precious metals?
- 12:46They keep going higher and higher.
- 12:48Well, they're actually going in reverse now.
- 12:50They're they're getting completely demolished.
- 12:52And so, yeah, I do think like there, there is, it seems like
- 12:59we should be on this path to cut rates further.
- 13:03And I think the markets, unless of course there's like isogenous
- 13:07events like maybe we go attack Iran.
- 13:11And if, you know, if we do go attack Iran and nothing, you
- 13:14know, something positive positive comes out of that,
- 13:17maybe like a Venezuela type of outcome, then maybe the markets
- 13:22will be OK. Or if it's even if it's A and
- 13:25when I mean positive, meaning like there's no nuclear,
- 13:29nuclear, you know, accident or reaction or some kind of attack.
- 13:35But if it's conventional and there's regime change and it's
- 13:39done in a actually, I'm not, I mean, I'm not a a policy expert,
- 13:44but typically like wars are good for the economy.
- 13:48And that's, I know that's a really, that's not a good thing
- 13:52to say, but, but typically that's, that's what happens.
- 13:55And so of course there's like the answer to the up to it.
- 13:58But, but yeah, that mean we're, we're in this weird spot right
- 14:01now where obviously there's, there's a big, there's a lot of
- 14:06factor moves right now. And and yet the, the S&P is not
- 14:13that far off of its high. And So what you've seen happen
- 14:16is all this factor rotation going on, the big high beta
- 14:21winners, which is like growth momentum revisions, those are
- 14:25selling off very heavily. And then you're all that money
- 14:28is moving more into defensive sectors, dividend, you know,
- 14:34consumer staples, things like that.
- 14:36And so so yeah, it's it's a really interesting time.
- 14:40We've had these type of tantrums before and you know, right now,
- 14:46for example, as I mentioned before, software is like an
- 14:48error that's getting absolutely demolished, which for the
- 14:52longest time, like software was the place to invest because it
- 14:56was a key enabler of economic growth and it was transforming
- 15:00industries. And then all of a sudden
- 15:02software is getting, or at least people feel that software is
- 15:05getting disrupted. And I, I think just my gut tells
- 15:08me like, I think we're probably we've swung too far, too far off
- 15:13into the, into the people projecting, you know, the
- 15:19destruction of software and all this uncertainty.
- 15:21It's just like back in April when people are like, Oh my God,
- 15:25these tariffs are going to destroy the US economy.
- 15:27And then lo and behold, like, yeah, the the market sold off.
- 15:30There was a knee jerk reaction. But since then, and I'm, you
- 15:35know, I'm not, I'm not trying to put forward a political view
- 15:39here, but just looking at the markets like, yeah, there was,
- 15:41there were scares about tariffs and obviously costs have gone
- 15:45up. It's been an impact on
- 15:46inflation. Like Powell.
- 15:49Powell has said many times that he would have cut rates earlier
- 15:53and more aggressively had we not have tariffs.
- 15:55But then they, the, the Fed had to wait and see what the, the,
- 15:59the potential reaction and impact would be on the economy.
- 16:02And tariffs actually weren't really a hindrance to the
- 16:07economy. Like if you look at where
- 16:08markets are now, I think the S&P bottoms like just below 500.
- 16:14I'm sorry, I'm just looking at spies.
- 16:15So spies bottom just below 500. And now we're at like it what's,
- 16:19we almost hit 700, but we're at 677.
- 16:23And so tariffs didn't have the negative impact people thought
- 16:27they would. And in some respects, like, you
- 16:29know, I'm, I, I was not positive on tariffs, but the whole, the,
- 16:36the, the impact of, of forcing companies to reshore
- 16:40manufacturing in the US. In retrospect, that was actually
- 16:44quite good, right? Like bringing fab new, new semi
- 16:49fabs here and bringing, you know, T1 Energy is the name I'm
- 16:53involved in. But, you know, forcing companies
- 16:56to, in that instance, you know, acquiring some Chinese IP, but
- 17:00then building US production capacity for solar.
- 17:03Like these are all positive things, I think.
- 17:06But yeah, it's I think, I think often times in and this is kind
- 17:11of investing right in periods of uncertainty like in software,
- 17:14there's probably going to be quite a few names that will
- 17:18rebound nicely over the next few quarters because everything's
- 17:22been sold off. Now obviously there's there are
- 17:24probably companies that are that are being disrupted and may not
- 17:28make it back, right. But I don't think AI is going to
- 17:32disrupt all these companies. And it's not as if, you know,
- 17:37like I'm just thinking about my own.
- 17:39And maybe it's not a good analogy, but I still use Google
- 17:44applications and the Microsoft Office suite and all these
- 17:48things. I use AI as well, but I still
- 17:50use these apps and, and I haven't even started to scratch
- 17:55the surface of utilizing the built in AI tools for these
- 17:59things. But, but obviously I'm not an
- 18:01enterprise. I don't buy enterprise software
- 18:03and and I guess there is this possibility that for some
- 18:07software applications, like there's no need for them whether
- 18:10like if you're if you're doing legal work and you you're trying
- 18:14to use a software application to do searches, you know, that
- 18:20might get discern intermediated right by by AI.
- 18:23And so, yeah, I one thing it did make me think about today is the
- 18:28fact that if you are concerned about AI, then you should be
- 18:33investing in more hard physical industries, right?
- 18:38And so energy would be 1. You know, space is another one.
- 18:42Like we're actually thinking about ASD space mobile, where I
- 18:46don't think AI agents can build multi ton satellites and then go
- 18:52launch them and put them in space.
- 18:54They could help operate them, but there's some things that AI
- 18:58can't do right. And so strata critical is
- 19:02another small company I'm invested in.
- 19:04AI can't do organ transplants and, and logistics.
- 19:09It's just something not possible.
- 19:10But AI can, you know, do research for legal cases and it
- 19:16can give you, you know, an edge in, in those areas.
- 19:19Or if it's like something software related, trading
- 19:22related, you know, something that's more ephemeral, I guess
- 19:26that that always could be potentially disrupted by AI.
- 19:29But but yeah, we're in a really weird time in the market.
- 19:33I think I I posted this before and it's it's a rule of thumb
- 19:36that I've learned in my career. I don't think we're going there,
- 19:39by the way. But you know, Vicks closed today
- 19:42up what, 17% at 21. And so, you know, can it go
- 19:47higher? Yeah, I can certainly go higher.
- 19:48Like Vicks can go to 3035 forty. What is Vicks measure?
- 19:53VIX is the measure of volatility on what people are paying for
- 19:59option premiums, which is typically in periods of
- 20:01dislocation. It will be people buying puts on
- 20:03the the S&P right. And so my rule of thumb that I
- 20:09learned back during the financial crisis, during the US
- 20:12debt credit downgrade, during COVID, during the April, you
- 20:17know, tariff tantrum, is that when VIX.
- 20:20Gets to above 50 like that's usually that's usually a time
- 20:24when you want to be aggressive in allocating capital because
- 20:27that's when that's when you know the markets are at a point of
- 20:32extreme fear. And then when you get to the
- 20:35point of and this is only happened at least my career, you
- 20:38know, twice, which is COVID and the great financial crisis when
- 20:40VIX gets above 7080. Those are times when you, you
- 20:46know, I hate to say it because I always talk about like not doing
- 20:49margin or any of those things, but that's when you go all in.
- 20:52That's when you've reached the absolute bottom.
- 20:54There's Max pandemonium, there's fear and you have to buy that
- 20:58you, I mean, you, you wouldn't mortgage your house, but you
- 21:03would, you would try to liquidate things and just put it
- 21:05into the market and you could just buy the indexes or whatever
- 21:08it is. But that's typically like the
- 21:11absolute bottom and that's where you buy it and you're going to
- 21:15have this like major rebound, right?
- 21:17And so I, I tweeted that because I think it's important to
- 21:21oftentimes people are like, well, is no, is now a good time
- 21:23to buy? And it's like, well, no one's
- 21:25going to be able to tell you exactly when because you know,
- 21:28we might rebound tomorrow, like after the liquidations happen,
- 21:32free market and at the open and you might rebound and maybe, you
- 21:39know, things get back to normal to some degree.
- 21:42Or you know, today, today was obviously quite a bit of
- 21:46deleveraging. You know, you've have retail
- 21:49getting margin calls. There's probably hedge funds
- 21:51that have been taking pretty significant losses.
- 21:53And so they're de grossing their books and so they're selling
- 21:56their longs, they're covering their shorts.
- 21:59But, but, but like I was saying before, I mean those that rule
- 22:04of thumb generally holds true, right?
- 22:06Like so if you, if we get to the point of VIX going above 50,
- 22:10that would be a good time to start allocating like
- 22:12aggressively. And then if you ever hit that
- 22:14crazy time of 708090, I think during COVID, it was it hit like
- 22:2284 during the great financial crisis.
- 22:24I think that was, that was a really scary time.
- 22:27I remember it hitting like 90 or so.
- 22:30And that those were days when the market was swinging like
- 22:335-6, seven, 10%, sometimes 10% on the downside.
- 22:38And then, you know, the next day would be up 8%.
- 22:42And so and that similarly, you know, during COVID, we saw some
- 22:45of that as well. But but yeah, that that's kind
- 22:49of rule of thumb. You know, you always in these
- 22:51type of market environments, as what we've talked about before,
- 22:53like do not, do not be on margin.
- 22:57You know, the times to use margin are when you do it
- 23:02tactically, like you have a, you have a point of view, you think
- 23:06you have some edge on a position and you're like, hey, I, I think
- 23:10this stock is going to go up because of this catalyst in, in
- 23:13the next day or two. And so I'm going to be on margin
- 23:16temporarily. And you know, I'm, I think
- 23:18margin someone, someone had asked, you know, is 20% too much
- 23:23or is 15% those? That's really high, especially
- 23:26if you have high beta stocks in your portfolio like that, that's
- 23:29way too high. But using margin, it should be
- 23:33something that's done judiciously where you're
- 23:35tactical about it and you, you set risk limits like, OK, if
- 23:39this thing doesn't work out in 2 days, I'm, I'm going to close
- 23:41out the margin. But for people who are, who are
- 23:46margins like it's something that they just do generally, I guess
- 23:50that's OK if you have low beta stocks.
- 23:52But if you're, if you have high beta names, like high growth
- 23:55names that are subject to a high level volatility, like you will
- 23:59ultimately get tapped out at the wrong time, right?
- 24:02And so, and often times when people have margin, like they
- 24:05like, OK, well, I'll just buy a little bit here and then, and
- 24:08then it grows and grows because like, Oh well, I liked it.
- 24:12I liked it yesterday and the stock is down 5 or 10% today.
- 24:15So, you know, I love it more. So I'm going to buy more on
- 24:18margin and then in and I've seen this like with people, you know,
- 24:23I was talking with some people in the chat about the old days
- 24:27of AST when, you know, we were on this like death March all the
- 24:30way down to 2 bucks and people were on margin and they were
- 24:34buying all the way down and then they just got tapped out.
- 24:38You know, they got wiped out at whatever it is.
- 24:40If they were they had held for a pretty long time and they were
- 24:43buying AT108765 and then they got tapped out at 4, which is
- 24:50brutal right? Because like, you know,
- 24:51obviously the stock went even lower, but had they just kept a
- 24:56fixed number of shares and they, they weren't on margin, they
- 24:58would have made it all the way through, which is pretty
- 25:02painful. And so, so I think like, you
- 25:05know, it's important to understand if you, if you want
- 25:09leverage, like you can always use options, you can use calls
- 25:14or you can use call spreads. And there's, there's like
- 25:15various strategies too. I mean, obviously, you know, you
- 25:20can and sometimes people talk about selling puts, which I, I,
- 25:23I don't like, especially environments like this.
- 25:27The reason, and I guess I'll just talk briefly about it.
- 25:30Yeah, when you sell puts, people are like, well, you know,
- 25:33they're here's a stock that's at 50 bucks and I'm going to short
- 25:37this put and it's at, yeah, I don't know, like I'm going to
- 25:41short this put at $20. And so I'd be happy to collect a
- 25:44dollar and basically have a, a cost basis of 19 if I get put
- 25:49the stock to me, right? And So what they don't
- 25:52understand is like during periods like this, like let's
- 25:54say VIX goes from 20 to 50, that put, even if the stock stays
- 26:00where it is that put that the, the value of that put is going
- 26:03to explode, right? Because implied volatility is
- 26:05going to go up. And So what you shorted, what
- 26:08you shorted at a dollar could end up being worth $3, right?
- 26:11And it like blows up in your face even though the stock
- 26:14hasn't moved. And so then the, the other thing
- 26:19is like when you short puts, like, and you're, let's say
- 26:23you're long stocking, you're shorting puts, you're actually
- 26:25increasing the risk that you have, right?
- 26:27Because when the stock price goes down, not only are you
- 26:30losing money, but you're, you're picking up, you're, you're
- 26:34getting along that stock by that put expanding in value, right?
- 26:37And then one thing that, which is the narrative that people
- 26:42say, well, if you sell put, you'll be happy to own it there.
- 26:45That's not true. Like if a stock gets cut in half
- 26:49and you're all of a sudden you know that put is now in the
- 26:53money and you're going to have to take delivery of the stock.
- 26:56You have to ask yourself, well, why did the stock get there?
- 26:59Why did the stock get cut in half?
- 27:00Is it for a good reason? Probably not.
- 27:03It's like, I mean, a classic example is like biotech, right?
- 27:06Like maybe something a trial failed or something.
- 27:09There's some adverse reaction that happened for the drug in
- 27:13some subset of the population. And so the drug is being
- 27:17reviewed or it got black labeled.
- 27:19And so maybe you don't want to take delivery of the stock, like
- 27:22the stock getting cut in half is not a good thing.
- 27:25Now, if it's just beta, like the market, you know, going down
- 27:28because, you know, every maybe the there's some economic
- 27:34uncertainty or healthcare gets beaten up, then maybe, yeah, you
- 27:38want you and nothing fundamentally has changed about
- 27:40the company, then sure, like you could take delivery of the
- 27:43stock. But then, yeah, I'll ask
- 27:46yourself this question. Like when you're selling put,
- 27:48you're selling insurance and if the stock gets to that level,
- 27:52why did it get to that level? And are you going to be
- 27:54comfortable holding that stock? Which I think there's probably,
- 27:59I mean, if you look at I'm, I'm just looking at my, my Bloomberg
- 28:01now, just looking at all this red, like there's probably
- 28:03plenty of put sellers here that are regretting having sold puts,
- 28:07right? Because they're now they've got,
- 28:11they've got to take delivery of that stock and they got to pay
- 28:15for it and they have to deposit funds or they have to sell other
- 28:19stock to pay for it. And so the other thing is like
- 28:25this, this idea of like selling covered calls.
- 28:27And by the way, like if you do, if you sell covered calls, and
- 28:30that's that's fine if it's for some small part of your
- 28:33position, But I think people also kind of had this false
- 28:37sense of security that selling calls is, is risk free and
- 28:43selling calls too. It's you're, you're basically
- 28:45selling when you sell a call against a long stock position,
- 28:48you're selling, you're basically shorting a synthetic in the
- 28:51money you put right. And so you have, you have
- 28:54limited upside, you have all the downside and you're hoping and
- 28:58it's, it's like has this weird psychological effect where
- 29:01you're hoping that this thing that you believe in, that you're
- 29:03long doesn't go up a lot because then you'll get your, the stock
- 29:07called away. And so, you know, I think
- 29:09selling calls for some level of income for a, a portion of your
- 29:13position does it could make sense.
- 29:15But but yeah, it makes I think in general when you're, when
- 29:20you're like, you're shorting puts or selling calls, which is
- 29:23same thing, you know, you're, you're, you're creating like
- 29:29these potential risks in your portfolio that during periods of
- 29:33time like now can be pretty toxic, right?
- 29:36And so, so I think it's important like if you're, you
- 29:41know, there there's, if you read Twitter, like there's a lot of
- 29:43people who are pretty stressed out right now.
- 29:46Yeah, take stock of your portfolio and think about, OK,
- 29:50if, if the market and by the way, like the major indices that
- 29:53are not down that much, obviously high beta names are
- 29:55down quite a bit or hated industries like software are
- 29:59down a lot and seem like they're not bothering.
- 30:02But yeah, think about if you have margin, you know, what does
- 30:06that do if you're down another 5%, another 10% because that's
- 30:11possible, right. And so you have to be prepared.
- 30:13But that said, I will say that the the liquidations that we've
- 30:19seen, it's been somewhat orderly and it's been across the board.
- 30:22And so I don't think we're going to get to this point where VIXX
- 30:26is going to get to, you know, 40 or 50%.
- 30:29Maybe we get to 30, which I mean, we're not that far off.
- 30:33We're at like 22. And so in a day you could get to
- 30:3530. But yeah, I mean, I think, I
- 30:41think for, for example, people who are invested in the space
- 30:45sector, yeah, you're still up a lot on your positions.
- 30:49And so I know like sometimes people have this like they feel,
- 30:56you know, for example, AST got to like 130.
- 30:58And so they have this idea that the stock belongs there, like it
- 31:01needs to be there. And so I'm not, you know, if
- 31:04they're in margin, they're like, well, I can't sell any because
- 31:07it's going to go there. And and so they, they kind of
- 31:09sit tight, right? But they don't take care of
- 31:11their margin balance. And then if the stock gets to
- 31:1470, all of a sudden they've got to sell shares and they lose,
- 31:17you know, parts of their position.
- 31:18And so as I said before, like I think you've got to be judicious
- 31:23with margin and not put yourself in a position where you
- 31:26compromise yourself, right? And so in the, in times like
- 31:31this, like you want to have some level of cash or a plan, right?
- 31:37And So what a plan could look like is, you know, if you're
- 31:42fully invested right now, but you're, you're not using margin,
- 31:45that's good because then you don't really have to do anything
- 31:48like you can. And, and one of the hardest
- 31:50things to do is like, when you see all this red, you're like,
- 31:52oh man, I wish I, I want to do something, I want to buy
- 31:55something or I want to move things around.
- 31:59Oftentimes the right answer is to do nothing.
- 32:00And that's OK. Like you're, it's not as if
- 32:02you're missing out on something. You know, sometimes people feel
- 32:06the need to trade, which, which can get them into trouble.
- 32:11But yeah, if you're, I've mentioned this before, but if
- 32:13you're, let's say you have a portfolio and you've got like 10
- 32:17ideas, you have like 4 names of conviction and six things that
- 32:21are kind of marginal. When you have a pullback like
- 32:23this and everything is trading at a correlation of one, like
- 32:28everything's down the same amount, then you might decide to
- 32:31consolidate your, your positions, right?
- 32:33You might consolidate some of those marginal ones into the
- 32:36more high conviction stuff that you have, especially if they're
- 32:39down the same amount, because then you, you're upgrading your
- 32:43portfolio basically, right. And as I've mentioned before,
- 32:47like you in those times too, like for the names that you
- 32:52don't, yeah, they might be more speculative.
- 32:53You don't really know them that well versus your high conviction
- 32:56stuff. Yeah, I mean those that's that.
- 33:00That's also a reason why you, you typically don't unless, you
- 33:04know, it's just for a speculative trade or something.
- 33:06But when you enter these types of periods, it's often times as
- 33:09marginal ideas that get cut, right?
- 33:11And that's where you that's where you can lose a lot of
- 33:13money where you don't know a situation very well.
- 33:17And so the first inclination is to cut it because you don't
- 33:20really know it versus like, oh, this is actually I feel good
- 33:24about this position. I might add to it or I might
- 33:27just hold it right. And so, but yeah, I think during
- 33:30pins are like this, like you, there is this opportunity to
- 33:34upgrade your portfolio like to the more high conviction stuff,
- 33:38especially as everything trades down together.
- 33:40And then the other thing too is if you're, if you, if you want
- 33:46to increase your, your risk, but you don't have any capital this,
- 33:50you know, as we kind of move down, there might be
- 33:53opportunities to, you know, sell shares and then buy, buy
- 33:57options, right? And so you could do that in a
- 34:00way that's cheap in premium, like you might buy stuff that's
- 34:03in the money that's not too far out.
- 34:06And so in that respect, like you, you actually, if you
- 34:10structure it the right way, you can actually limit your downside
- 34:13or cap your downside and increase your leverage on the
- 34:16way up by selling some of your stock.
- 34:18And it's not something like, I think you should do a complete,
- 34:21you know, stock to option replacement.
- 34:25But if you're looking to add more torque, if you think like
- 34:28you've reached some bottom, like that's one way to do it.
- 34:31Again, don't do margin. I'm just talking about options.
- 34:35And there's, there's also some cost effective ways to do that
- 34:37too. One, one way is like if all is
- 34:40really expensive and calls look expensive, you can buy a call
- 34:43spread. You can buy, let's say if it's,
- 34:45if you're, if you have a stock that's like $100 and maybe you
- 34:49buy a call spread that's like 3 months out because you think
- 34:52that there is a rebound or there's some catalyst that will
- 34:54bring the stock back. You might buy a call that's like
- 34:5710% of the money and then short a call that's like 40% of the
- 35:01money. And by doing so, you've like
- 35:04lowered the cost to do that. You've also obviously capped
- 35:06some level upside, but generally speaking, like if the market
- 35:11rallies back and the stock price moves up, those calls actually
- 35:16the ball will get, will get crushed to some or not get
- 35:20completely crushed, but it'll, it'll come in.
- 35:22And so by being short that top call, you'll actually get, you
- 35:26know, oftentimes when people buy calls and the higher, you know,
- 35:28when you have a a big drawdown, you end up paying a lot for
- 35:32those calls because volatility is very pumped.
- 35:35But if you if you buy a call spread, you buy a lower strike
- 35:38call and shorter upper strike call, you at least make that
- 35:42purchase cheaper. And in some respects, like when
- 35:45there is a market rebound, you end up you might be able to buy
- 35:49that the top call back for a much more reasonable price as
- 35:53well, you know, collapses when things calm down.
- 35:56But but yeah, those, those are like some potential things that
- 36:00you can do, which, you know, sometimes for me when there, I
- 36:06remember when I mean, here's like a trade that I did.
- 36:09I remember when AST went down to 50 and it was like very
- 36:13frustrating. This is in November.
- 36:16And I I did sell some other things, but then I also sold
- 36:19some stock at that level and I bought call spreads.
- 36:25What were they? I think that I bought some like
- 36:27it was December, December. No, I think it was January call
- 36:31spreads and I bought a pretty decent amount of them because I
- 36:35was like, well, I'll just sell some shares.
- 36:38So I, I think I sold like 2 or 3000 shares and I bought some
- 36:42call spreads. I think that was the amount.
- 36:43And then those call spreads ended up doing quite well.
- 36:46Like I think it made, I think it was like 2, two or $3,000,000.
- 36:53And so at that point in time, yeah, it, it was, I was, it was
- 36:59a point where, yeah, I didn't want to sell the stock at 50,
- 37:01but I was like, well, you know, I'm going to increase the upside
- 37:04'cause I think this the stock has pulled back too far.
- 37:06And so, and by the way, like that, that the amount of shares
- 37:10that I sold was pretty small in terms of percentage of my
- 37:13position. But by being able to, but by
- 37:18taking, you know, selling down there by that, I didn't, I
- 37:20didn't like the price that I was selling.
- 37:22But then I got exposure to, you know, call spreads.
- 37:26I was able to make quite a bit when the stock rebounded to I
- 37:29guess it was at the time that monetizes calls.
- 37:32I think it was like at 90 or something.
- 37:35But but yeah, those are some things that you can do if you
- 37:37don't have cash, but you do have positions and you might be down
- 37:42on them. You might sell, I don't know, a
- 37:45few percentage here there just to increase some upside if you
- 37:49think like you've bottomed. But but yeah, I think, you know,
- 37:55we're in this weird period. I think it's, it's important to
- 37:58stay in the game and not again, don't be on margin.
- 38:01I keep saying this over and over again and it's it's pretty
- 38:04brutal because I think like the crypto people, I don't know,
- 38:08it's pretty wild. Like to see that people were
- 38:10running 50 times leverage, 20 times leverage on Bitcoin, like
- 38:14a really, you know, volatile asset, which I guess when it got
- 38:19to the 120, you know, it's kind of trading in a very tight
- 38:22range. So maybe people were were
- 38:23trading with high leverage, they're trading small moves, but
- 38:28but obviously going from 1:20 to 60 is, is so destructive.
- 38:32Like if you have leverage for any, any, any asset, right,
- 38:36getting cut in half, like that's you're pretty much going to be
- 38:38out of the game. But yeah, I think, I think, you
- 38:45know, tomorrow there's probably going to be my guess is like a
- 38:49rough open and then you might be tradable, but just keep your
- 38:54head, you know, keep your head on top of your of your
- 38:57shoulders. Like don't don't over over trade
- 39:00things or don't panic. Definitely, you know, remind
- 39:04yourself like why you own a particular situation like AST,
- 39:08there's a lot of great cows that are coming up and the companies
- 39:11on the cusp of, you know, launching commercial service.
- 39:15You've got like all the defense work that's coming up and then
- 39:19obviously space is a key focus of of this administration.
- 39:22And so I'm super bullish like these, these price movements
- 39:26don't really affect me. I think someone was like, Oh my
- 39:29God, I think the stock is probably go down to 70 and it's
- 39:31like, oh, OK, I mean, that's I'm a long term investor.
- 39:34So you know, I've been around since the twos.
- 39:37So it going to 70 is not it's not going to am I going to be
- 39:41happy about it? No, but am I going to lose sleep
- 39:43over it? No, because you know, it's, it's
- 39:46kind of I in some respects like I've, I've lost, I'm not really
- 39:51affected by the volatility in, in this particular particular
- 39:55name because I, I have high level conviction in it.
- 39:59But I, I do think, you know, to the extent that there are people
- 40:02out there that have very concentrated portfolios in AST
- 40:06like it's always good to. And I keep telling Kook this and
- 40:11he doesn't listen to me, which is fine, it's his own thing,
- 40:14but. If you have, you know, make sure
- 40:16you have a plan, you have goals. And so, you know, if you think
- 40:19that a certain, whether it's like your original net worth or
- 40:27you know, some, some number you have in mind, like if you ever
- 40:30hit that, then you know, set aside some, some portion of what
- 40:33you own, right? Like there's people who've made
- 40:35multiple times of their net worth and it's like, hey, well,
- 40:37maybe you should sell a little bit next time we get to 100 or
- 40:41130 or whatever. You pick your number, I don't
- 40:43know, 150 set us sell a little bit to cover your original net
- 40:46worth And, and of course, you know, set aside money for taxes.
- 40:51And then the next time you have a draw down, like you're not
- 40:53going to care. Like for me, that was when, and
- 40:57I've talked about this many times, but when I had to
- 41:01exercise my warrants, you know, I had to sell a number over
- 41:05them. And then I, I also set aside
- 41:08some money for taxes and then, and then, yeah.
- 41:12And then I exercise the rest, which makes up the majority of
- 41:15the shares that I own today. And in that process, I, when I
- 41:19set aside some money, you know, I paid off like, you know, I
- 41:22had, I had a mortgage on our house and we needed a new car
- 41:27and a number of other things. And I did all those things,
- 41:30right? And I also had cash leftover,
- 41:32which then I, you know, I've talked about the spaces before.
- 41:36Like that's, that was when I started buying T1 Energy because
- 41:40I was like, oh, I have all this cash.
- 41:41So I'm going to like look at some new ideas.
- 41:43So I bought T1 energy. I also bought Satixfy, which
- 41:46ended up that, that was the fun trade that I've talked about
- 41:49where I bought warrants for I think it was like $47,000 and
- 41:53they ended up being worth 1.8 million bucks.
- 41:57But those are, you know, but I guess the point of the story is
- 42:01that because I did take some profits and this was like when
- 42:06stock was in the 30s when this is for AST.
- 42:11So when we had that draw down all the way down to 18, it
- 42:14didn't impact me at all. Like I was like, well, I, I did
- 42:17take something off at the top and then or near the top.
- 42:20It wasn't exactly the top. I think it was like the high 20s
- 42:26when I, when I took something off, like mentally, I was able
- 42:29to say, Oh, I, I took some profit and I had this win.
- 42:32And so when the stock went down to 18, like I had some money and
- 42:36I and I bought on the way down, but also it didn't impact me.
- 42:41And then of course, like there were other people involved who
- 42:44were man, it was like brutal mentally for them to have seen
- 42:49ASD hit 39. I think it was like, was it
- 42:53August 2024? It hit 39 and then it came back
- 42:56down to 18. And then there was just like
- 42:59absolute dejection right where people are like, oh God, I'd
- 43:02wish I'd sold some or did this or that.
- 43:04And it's like, yeah, that's, that's why you got to have a
- 43:07plan. Like it's fun to watch stock
- 43:08price hit certain levels, but, and it's OK, like if you're
- 43:13riding it to 200, then then there's nothing for you to do.
- 43:17But if you have a plan and you're like, oh, well, I'll,
- 43:20I'll sell a little bit at 1:50. And you, you execute on that.
- 43:23Then when the stock does have it's edible, you know,
- 43:28pullbacks, then you're not going to feel bad about it.
- 43:30And so like today for AST, for it to be down at 9192 and then,
- 43:37you know, hit 87 after hours, like, Oh, yeah, I'll buy some
- 43:40here or there, but I'm, I don't feel awful about it because I
- 43:45know what I own. And I, I know like, there's
- 43:50especially, you know, heading into the SpaceX IPO, like, I
- 43:52think, I think the upside is going to surprise us, right?
- 43:56In terms of how the market, the, the, on the one hand, the, the
- 44:02rationale, the rational side of, of assessing how big the comms
- 44:07market, the military market is, and also look at the data center
- 44:10opportunity. But then the euphoria that
- 44:13inevity is going to come. Like it's not obviously, you
- 44:18know, it is. People are going to say, well,
- 44:20you're hyping up or you're pumping.
- 44:21It's like, no, it's just human psychology.
- 44:23Like there's, there's this massive watershed event this the
- 44:28SpaceX IPO and a ton of interest and it's going to bring
- 44:32attention to the sector. And, and so, you know, we, we,
- 44:36if you had asked me back when we're at $2.00, like, hey, in
- 44:412026, the stock is going to hit 130.
- 44:44I would have laughed at you like I would I.
- 44:46It wasn't something that would have been in the realm of
- 44:49possibility in April of 2024. However, what was not in the
- 44:55realm of possibility either, It was the fact that the company
- 44:58would sign not only AT&T, which that, that we, we, we could
- 45:02underwrite and we knew that was going to happen.
- 45:05But Verizon, that was like the gotcha.
- 45:07But that was just like, what wait, I remember seeing that and
- 45:11calling Kook that morning is like, you will not believe what
- 45:14just happened. Verizon signed an MOU with
- 45:18company. They're, they're investing $100
- 45:20million and they contributed their 850 megahertz spectrum.
- 45:24Like I would have never dreamed that in a million years because,
- 45:28yeah, AT&T and Verizon, they don't work together.
- 45:31I thought AT&T had exclusivity in the US and, and yeah, and so
- 45:36that, that laid the foundation for where the company is today,
- 45:39because that opened up military or that that opened the the dam
- 45:46and, and all the military interest started to come after
- 45:49that because it's like, oh, they're working with AT&T and
- 45:51Verizon. There must be something real
- 45:52there. And so that was something that
- 45:56you couldn't have priced in, right?
- 45:58And so I think that's something when SpaceX does go public, the
- 46:03interest in it and the folks that are, you know, going to be
- 46:07writing about AST, that's something that you can't fully
- 46:12price in or understand what's what is going to happen, right?
- 46:17And so like when I wrote about Apple today testing with AST,
- 46:23like even I learned something new because I, I had totally
- 46:25forgotten, you know, so Apple, for those who don't know, Apple
- 46:29had been, has been testing their iPhone 17 with the frequencies
- 46:33for satellite supplemental coverage from space in the
- 46:37frequencies that obviously AST space mobile covers, which is
- 46:41700 and 800 megahertz. And so that would be with AT&T
- 46:45and Verizon. And this, this application of
- 46:48the FCCII believe is the basis for the article in October from
- 46:54the information where the authors claimed that and it was
- 46:57leaked, I'm sure by SpaceX, that SpaceX was secretly working with
- 47:02Apple to test their phones, right?
- 47:05So with Starling service and of course in that application for
- 47:10testing, there's 1.9 Hertz, 1.9 gigahertz, which is T-Mobile
- 47:15spectrum TT mobile use use that spectrum is utilized by Starlink
- 47:22to provide service. It's a small 5 by 5 megahertz
- 47:25channel. But but yeah, Apple's testing
- 47:28the Starlink to make sure that Starlink works and that's
- 47:31something that T-Mobile would ask Apple to do that.
- 47:34And inversely, Verizon ATT will ask Apple to make sure that AST
- 47:41space rule works on 700 and 800 megahertz.
- 47:44But what I forgot and you know, I guess tweeted about it later
- 47:49because someone in space MOB was nice enough to point it out to
- 47:52me. And that testing.
- 47:55There's also 600 megahertz, which Starlink can't use because
- 47:59their satellites don't, they're, they're only solely focused on
- 48:02mid band spectrum. But at least as of this morning,
- 48:06I, I in my mind, I was like, Oh yeah, that's, that's owned by
- 48:09T-Mobile. But then I forgot that AT&T is
- 48:11buying Echo Star's nationwide 600 megahertz spectrum, which is
- 48:1520. It's Virgin unused 20 megahertz
- 48:19by 20 megahertz spectrum. And so, so yeah, like I wouldn't
- 48:24be surprised if AT&T light set up for AST to use.
- 48:28And so that's that's a game changer.
- 48:30I mean, 20 megahertz by 20 megahertz.
- 48:32Like if they actually open that up for AST to use, that's really
- 48:37going to differentiate AT&T service.
- 48:39And I'm sure Verizon's going to look at that and say, OK, you
- 48:42know what, I need to dedicate some level of spectrum for AST
- 48:45as well. And so again, these are things
- 48:48that, you know, the market doesn't, isn't pricing in and,
- 48:53and it's what's ahead. So, you know, when they when the
- 48:57art headlines come out that Apple is testing with the AST
- 49:00space mobile, what does that do? What does that do to the stock?
- 49:03Or like, if Apple, if I was Apple, I would, I would do this.
- 49:07I, you know, Apple should be making a strategic investment in
- 49:10the company because it, it, you know, the, the news that Elon
- 49:14Musk, I think it was like three sources close, close or familiar
- 49:18with the matter, which is typically when you look at
- 49:24journalists speak, if it's, if it's sources close to the matter
- 49:28means or familiar with the matter, that's usually like
- 49:31outside advisors. And so it could be, it could be
- 49:34like an outside consulting firm. It could be bankers, could be
- 49:36attorneys, lawyer, you know, lawyers, whatever.
- 49:40But the fact that there was like from three different sources
- 49:43saying that Starlink is working on a mobile phone and mobile
- 49:46service, like I think that's pretty.
- 49:48And you know, LON has has hinted as such and also talked about it
- 49:52openly. But then today he had to walk it
- 49:54back because I'm sure someone who, who's in charge of M&O
- 49:58partnerships is like, come on, man, you're making my heart my
- 50:01life hard. Like, how am I supposed to sign
- 50:03up M and OS if, if we're eventually going to compete with
- 50:05them? But if you're Apple, it's it's
- 50:11yeah, the writing's on the wall. Like you, you, what are you
- 50:14going to do? You, you need to have control of
- 50:17your destiny. Like SpaceX is going to come to
- 50:21eat, eat off your plate. They're going to they're going
- 50:23to create hardware. And so whether it's Apple or
- 50:26Google, and I know some people are like, well, I don't think
- 50:29SpaceX will create their OS, their own OS.
- 50:33What do you mean? Of course they're going to
- 50:34create their own OS that it's not it's not going to be easy.
- 50:36But it's not as if this thing called XAI was easy.
- 50:40Like they Ilan created his own, you know, artificial
- 50:45intelligence platform from scratch.
- 50:48So and because we know like how I guess how powerful AI is at
- 50:53coding, you know, could you also see a situation where they are
- 50:58going to develop their own OS? Yeah.
- 51:00I mean, that's what, that's what Elon does.
- 51:03That's, you know, Tesla, what you, you pick any, any one of
- 51:07his companies. Like he's building his own
- 51:09stuff. He's not going to be leveraging
- 51:10anybody else's technology. And so I think, as I mentioned
- 51:16before, it's going to become more and more apparent that the
- 51:21strategic value for AST is going to go up and up in the next few
- 51:24months. And so, yeah, today it sucked.
- 51:28Last few days it sucked. Like, of course everybody wants
- 51:31to be at above 100 or 1/31/20. You, you pick.
- 51:35But, but yeah, this is just market volatility and it's, it's
- 51:40part of, it's part of the investing process.
- 51:42And, and, and for, for some people it can be pretty scary.
- 51:45But, but yeah, I, I think let me just make this comparison here.
- 51:52So last time, let me just look at Bitcoin.
- 51:54Bitcoin so let's see when when was Bitcoin at 60,000 last OK,
- 52:04so Bitcoin that was September of 2024 yeah, right before Trump
- 52:12was elected so it was around 60,000 and back then AST was at
- 52:20September of 2024 I mean that was the run but AST was like at
- 52:26$24.00, right and so Bitcoin is re rated back down to 65 with
- 52:31that there's been a ton of deleveraging and and risk taking
- 52:34on the markets but yet AST is now at 93 or you know,
- 52:38overnight, I guess 90. And so we made a lot of
- 52:41progress, right? And so I think, I think it's
- 52:44good to keep that in perspective and to not lose sight.
- 52:48I know people, yeah, it's, it's difficult to lose money.
- 52:53And looking at Reddit like there's and on, on Twitter,
- 52:56there's people that are, that are worried or panicked or, you
- 53:00know, the, the, the doubts, like when, whenever you have a draw
- 53:02down, the doubts seep back into your mind.
- 53:05Like what things can go wrong with this company or why isn't
- 53:08the stock going up or, or why haven't they given us an update
- 53:13on Bluebird 6 unfolding or the batch, the, the next two batches
- 53:17being sent down to Cape Canaveral.
- 53:19And you know, we've talked about all this stuff over and over
- 53:23again, but but yeah, it's, it's funny, like the stock price,
- 53:27nothing drives sentiment as much as stock price, right?
- 53:30And so I think zoom out, look around, look at the entire space
- 53:34sector. I mean, every name with the
- 53:36exception on my screen of 1 is, is red, like heavily red.
- 53:41And you pick the sector, if it's like next generation nuclear
- 53:45technology companies, critical minerals, let's see data X, you
- 53:50know, data centers, quantum names, everything is just
- 53:55completely smashed. And so so yeah, we're not that
- 53:58different. But then just keep in mind, you
- 54:00know, the stock is at in the 80s and 90s versus where it was
- 54:05before, which is 20 in the 20s back when Bitcoin is at 65.
- 54:08And so that should give you some comfort.
- 54:11You know, the company has made a ton of progress and the story
- 54:13has changed quite a bit in terms of hitting milestones.
- 54:16And so and there's a lot more to come.
- 54:18And so, yeah, I'm super optimistic and bullish and that,
- 54:24you know, market volatility is not going to change that.
- 54:27And yeah, there's, there's a bit of uncertainty ahead of us
- 54:32whether that's I guess that's new Fed chair, which I don't I I
- 54:35think that's kind of a nothing burger or potential conflict
- 54:40with Iran. That's that, that's a real
- 54:42problem. But often times, as we've seen
- 54:45in the past, the market can the market actually respond, has
- 54:48this reaction of uncertainty, but then can see through it as
- 54:55long as like there's something really bad that doesn't happen.
- 54:59But you know, we'll we'll find out I guess the next few weeks.
- 55:02And then beyond that, yeah, I mean, AI is scary and it's it's
- 55:07disrupting a lot of different industries.
- 55:08But I would say space I don't believe is going to be
- 55:12disrupted. Famous last words to be
- 55:14disrupted by AI because a lot of the stuff that these space
- 55:17companies do requires very certain expertise.
- 55:21We're we're talking about like physical hardware, you know,
- 55:24making satellites, microns, putting together processors,
- 55:28solar panels, making sure that these things are hardened for
- 55:32space. It's not something that just
- 55:35like building semiconductors or hard drives or flash memory or
- 55:39DRAM or high bandwidth memory, like this stuff is not something
- 55:44that AI disrupts. It's actually something that AI
- 55:46needs. And ultimately what ASD is
- 55:49doing, which is communications to mobile phones.
- 55:52That is something that AI can use and then ultimately data
- 55:55centers as well. So anyway, I've been rambling
- 55:59now for quite some time. It's 12:45.
- 56:02I'm getting tired. And just like the rest of you,
- 56:04I, I got to get up for the open tomorrow.
- 56:06But yeah, hopefully I this is helpful.
- 56:11And just kind of thinking about the markets and, and the
- 56:13volatility, I, I think again, we're, we're in this period of
- 56:16de grossing and deleveraging. And so when you see everything
- 56:22basically correlated, it's not, it's not like there's anything
- 56:26wrong with a particular company. It's just risk is just coming
- 56:29out off across the board. And, and I think, you know, try
- 56:32not to fall into the strap of trying to explain why your
- 56:36particular company is down. It's all companies are down and
- 56:40and risk is off. And so keep an eye on VIX and,
- 56:44and some of these indicators like maybe perhaps software
- 56:46starts turning around and you know, maybe maybe that shows
- 56:51some level bottoming or, or crypto might lead us back out of
- 56:54this. But we also be prepared like,
- 56:56you know, we might have additional days or weeks of
- 56:59this. And so just be ready, which
- 57:02means don't be margined. But anyway, I'm going to go to
- 57:07bed. Thanks everyone for joining and
- 57:09we'll talk again in the morning. Take care.
- 57:13Thanks for listening. To the AST Space Mobile podcast,
- 57:17if you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
- 57:20podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
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- 57:26To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
- 57:29sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
- 57:32next time. We're doing something.
- 57:37Very, very big and I think with this technology we can really
- 57:40affect billion lives. AFT space Mobile is the only
- 57:44company that has proven technology to deliver several of
- 57:48your bank connectivity directly from the state to do everyday
- 57:52smartphone people will. Just.
- 57:53Basically turn their phone and be.
- 57:56Syndrome, regardless of where. You are.
- 57:57We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
- 58:00satellite. Our role.
- 58:02Is to bring this into reality, always in partnership with the
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