Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets | NFL Week 3

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Best Bets | NFL Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites from the Action Network. I'm your
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: host Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow d Jens. Your
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: new crew here at the Favorites, Kendrick Middleton and the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stucky with us today. On
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: today's show, we're going to submit our official plays for
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: week three in the NFL. We've got sides. We'll talk totals,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: props and put together our three Musketeers parlay. Everything is
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: on the table. Like and subscribe wherever it is that
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you are tuned in. All right, guys, update on the
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: concert last night, sleep Token not bad, pretty good performers.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: You know now my genre of music, but I enjoyed it.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: You got to lean into the moment. A lot of
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: aggressive head nodding in the crowd, a lot of fishnet stockings,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: some medieval garb in there. I wore you guys told
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: me to wear black. So I went to the Spirit
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Halloween Store because I couldn't think of where else I
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: could get something that kind of fit the vibe. So
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I went with this here for the for those watching
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: on video, this Jason mask shirt that says I wish
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: it was Friday. Are we good with this.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: That is the most millennial dad thing I've ever seen
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: in my life. Are we kidding?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I walk out of the bathroom last night before we
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: go to the concert. My wife goes, what are you doing?
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I was like, I'm leaning into the moment, and she's like, no,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: that's not what people wear to this.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: It seems like you're fishing for a compliment now that
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: you didn't get last night. You're the only chance.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I have at this point.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Amazing shirt.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: We'll start with our shrimply unbelievable stat of the week,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: courtesy of Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams collabsed
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: with Kendra's Lovely and Pregnant Rainbow Shrimp, Monica Lashrimsky and
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Oj Shrimpson. How they doing, By the way, before we
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: get to the stats, how the yes, I don't know
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: how long the pregnancy lasts for a.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: Trump, She's sognant, she's so pregnant. I have been trying
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: to wait to change her water and add chemicals in
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: there because obviously it evaporates as water does, because I
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: don't want to disrupt her flow. But it's getting to
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: a point where I need to do it. I just
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: I'm nervous she's been pregnant for so long. I don't
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: know if it has something to do with the incess bit.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Take them to the shrimp doctor. I guess we'll figure
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: out what's going on, all right, you guys take your pick.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna run through three that Evan dropped into our
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: chat here because I could not decide which one stood
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: out to me the most. They're all pretty amazing, shrimply unbelievable.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I should say, let's stick to the branding. NFL closing
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: favorites of four points or more are twelve and oho
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: straight up this season. First time in NFL history that
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: faves of four points or more are undefeated straight up
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: through two weeks. Okay, so lock that one in your
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: memory bank. Number two an underdog on short rest, tough spot.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: That's Miami, Houston, Las Vegas. These teams are twenty nine
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: one oh one straight up twenty two percent over the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: last three seasons. C J Stroud one in three in
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: that spot, Tua who plays tonight as of this recording,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: and five straight up Gino Smith oh to nine. Okay. Third,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams has started seven career NFL games in the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: afternoon or primetime window. Four pm or later. The Bears
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: are zero to seven straight up in those games, losing
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: by an average of eleven point one points per game.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: As a Bears backer, this one wants to make me
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: absolutely puke stucky. Which of those? I know, that's a
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: lot right there to digest. Which of those stands out
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: to you the most?
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, anything in week three? Week three is all
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: about trying not to overreact. So and that's to Caleb
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: Williams time. That doesn't really do anything for me. But
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: a lot of the trends that you'll read in Evan's
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: piece and that you'll read a mind and then we'll
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: talk about here and on the Action Over podcast that
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: I just did with Rayvaughn, they're about how in week
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: three you would have been better off just sleeping or
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: going to concerts through the first two weeks of the
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: NFL and not having any idea of what went on
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: and not seeing anything to cloud your judgment like a
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: lot of like professional betters, you're better off sticking with
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: what you had prior, your priors prior to the year
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: than updating anything really drastically. Because it's a sample size
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: of two. For example, we just don't know how yeah,
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: just two games, you'd take any So if you went
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: back last year and you just took any random subset
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: of two games for a team, probably doesn't tell the
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: picture or paint the picture of what that team really was.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: So for example, are the Colts really now? The greatest
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: show under is Daniel Jones now? And I'll but probably not.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: He's more likely than not to turn back into a pumpkin.
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: And the Colts probably won't look this good all year.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: So anything like that and what that leads to this week,
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: there is usually an underdog week. Week three hunderdogs are
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: fifty five percent against the spread teams that are zero
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: and two, right, So all right, I just saw this
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: team lose twice. They look awful. I don't I really
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: don't want to bet them. The market might be overselling
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: them a bunch or too much. Own two underdogs. Historically,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: since twenty forty and twenty one against the spread, that's
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: close to sixty six percent covering by a field goal
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: per game. So for example, tonight, who wants to bet
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: the Dolphins after what we've seen? They haven't, they haven't
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: covered a game, they look awful, and the Bills just
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: they beat the Ravens and then blow out the Jets.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: Who's everyone's favorite underdog darling last week? Including mine? I
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: bet them, and by the way I fell for it.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: I looked at the Jets week one, we talked about
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: this cloud in my judgment, and guess what, Fields was
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: still pumpkin and the Jets still look bad. So by
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: the way I did bet the Dolphins tonight, partly is
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: just like this line's too high. Take about what I saw.
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: So anything that speaks to like the overreactions of week
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: one and two, those are the trends that I like
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: because it's just the overarching idea that look, ignore and
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: don't overreact. This is still the NFL.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the other side, by the way, so
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go opposite on the Thursday night football game.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I think that perhaps the Dolphins were just overrated going
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: into the season and we didn't realize just how bad
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: they are, and they are dealing with some offensive line injuries.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: The Bills no Ed Oliver, no Matt Milano tonight, so
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: that is a big deal for them. Kendra, what about
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the shrimply unbelieved.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Loser has to buy winner. Let's go ahead to have
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: loser by winner a Halloween shirt.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Of just a plain black T shirt we're getting from
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell in the chat. Yeah, okay, so we go
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: back to because you have a spirit Halloween store. Imagine
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: that's a nation wide chain this time of year, right,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: you have one of those where you're at I have
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: no idea.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Wait, I have an idea. Have you guys seen like.
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: The Bachelor Bachelorette trips where they buy each other like
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: a T shirt with the worst saying that they can
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: possibly find on it. Loser gets to or wine to
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: buy the loser the craziest shirt they can find and
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: they have to wear it on an episode.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, I'm down for that. A virtual handshake
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: on that. Kendra, Well, I got twelve. We'll call it twelve. Okay,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: we'll call it twelve and then if there's a push,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: we'll both wear the shirt. All right, Kendra, what do
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: you got?
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: I brought my own stat and it is so stupid,
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: but I love a weird age.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I'm so excited for this. You how the world, how
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: in the world did you come up with this?
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: Anyway, just tell the people, No, I'm in a group chat. Okay,
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: so a bunch of my coworkers are really into like
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: numerology and astrology, which I'm not the biggest person in it,
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: but I love a weird angle for gambling at any point.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: So this was in our group chat today. The game
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: between the Lions and the Ravens is on a waxing
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: crescent moon. The Lions are nine and one during waxing
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: crescent moons the last two seasons.
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: Hashtag astrology. I think I know where I'm going with this.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: One nine and one's pretty nuts on.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: A specific moon's that's pretty crazy.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to find the connecting angle to that. Stucky.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: If I asked you to draw a waning crescent moon,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: do you think you can do it?
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: It's waxing all it is.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: If Jared Goff can see the moon, fade him. If
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: he can't inside a dome, bet him. That makes more
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: sense to me is I think it's about whether or
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: not golf can see the actual waxing, remaining moon. But
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: I can't say that I've ever dabbled in numerology. But
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: maybe maybe you got something there.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Yep, we got lunar caps here on the podcast today.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: There is something to that he plays better in domes.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: You can't see a moon, the moon in a dome,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: and it looks like based on a quick Google search,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the waxing crescent is very little of the moon that
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: you can see, so perhaps it is a moon related stat.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: The more of the moon that golf can see. We're
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: trying to help you out here, Kendra, The more of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the moon that golf can see, the less he performs. Well,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: let's get to some of the updates for these quarterbacks.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields is out that has done nothing but create
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Jets movement in the market, which is just bizarre to me.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Tyron Taylor has that started a game since twenty twenty three.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: This idea that he is even a half point improvement
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: to what Justin Fields was feels off to me. Now,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: part of this could also be Luke Getticky is injured,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: so the Bucks are dealing with even more offensive line injuries.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Collijah Kanci's out for the year. How do you read this, Stucky.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: As far as the line movement that we're seeing, it
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: seems like there's a lot of Jets sentiment in the market.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I played the Jet I mean I played the
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: Jets again. I played them seven. I mean, think about it.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: The Jets close five and a half home against the
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: Bills last week. Now, obviously they got blown out. The
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: Bills that just knew exactly what they were gonna run.
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: They were run blitzing, They blew up everything possible, and
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: the Jets were running a terrible defense against Josh. Against
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen, running like cover one, it was insane. Never
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: run like cover one against Ount. He's either gonna find
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: someone or he's just gonna run for first down, which
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: is what happened in the entire game. But that closed. The
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: Markets had five and a half and the Bills had
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: a couple of defensive injuries. But now you're going to Tampa.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: Tampa's on a short week, they're banged up, and this
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: is seven like. So that's we're basically saying, like the
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: Bills and the Bucks are in the same neighborhood. Absolutely not.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: I get Ty Taylor hasn't played in a while. He's
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: He's been very good against the number his career. He's
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: thirty four to twenty one and four against the spread,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: sixty two percent, seven three and one against the spread
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: when catching seven or more. The drop off isn't drastic
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: like fields. His whole career has been a terrible passer.
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: We saw that in week two. We saw the flash
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: in the pan week one. That was obviously the exception
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: of the rule. But Tyrod Taylor is a professional back
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: up on the guy you want when you want to
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: cover a touchdown because he doesn't turn the ball over
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: top five all time among qualified quarterbacks an interception rate,
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: doesn't turn it over, can run the offense. And this
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Bucks team like they honestly could be going too. They
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: won on basically the final play two weeks in a row.
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield is six turnover worthy plays, no interceptions. He's
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: been pretty fortunate and they could easily be ohing to
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: the Jets should have beat the Steelers. Like if the
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: Jets are sitting one and one and the Bucks are
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: rowing two, this line would have been four. Let's call
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: it a point for a point downgrade from Fields to Taylor,
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: this line I think should be around five. That's before
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: even accounting for all the Bucks injuries you mentioned Kancy,
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: They're still shortthanded at receiver. Worst is out one of
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: the best left tackles in the NFL. Geticky's most likely
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: going to miss. Solid right tackle. Then Cody Monk their
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: the right goal he's now out for the year. They're
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: down three starting offensive line mean, they've already had to
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: move their center to left tackle. Like it's a mess.
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: So look, ignore what you saw last week. I know
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: it's painful if you want to beat the Jets again
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: after what they did last week, but I got to
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: take the seven here, so I'm rolling with the Jets again.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: Hopefully I don't end up with egg on my face again.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: For me, it's more so just when does the Bucks
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: luck run out? I get that it's only week three.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: I mean we did watch the Kansas City Chiefs carry
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: that luck through the entire season last year, so maybe
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: it just doesn't for certain teams, but they've got the
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: injury bug. The number is huge. Tyrod Taylor is a
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: pros pro. He can go out there and win you
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: a game two games. We've seen him do it throughout
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: his career.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: For me, it's like, I just don't think that the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: drop off is that significant between the two and the
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: number is just too big. Tyrod is a pros pro.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I agree the luck rank Kings do of the Bucks
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: pretty high over at Action Network. Before he pivot off
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: of this, Evan, if you could pop in one of
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the stats that really stood out to me because I
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: want to be on Tampa, but I do respect where
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: STUCKYU and Kendra and where the market is coming from
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: on the Jets, and part of this, it's hard to
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: not ignore the fact that I was heavy on the
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Jets last week. That was my number one play and
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: they burned me hard. Try not to bake that into
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: your analysis, but it's just human nature. This is Baker
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Mayfield's eleventh start on short rest since twenty twenty in
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: those games, and his team scored twenty plus points nine
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: or more times overall, six and four against the spread
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: in those games. Evan, this is an interesting one to me,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: the Baker on short rest. Not every trend, not every
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: stat that you put in the primer carries an equal
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: amount of weight. How much weight do you put into
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: that for the Baker's stat As far as how he
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: plays when he doesn't have a lot of time to prepare, I.
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: Mean, I think it's just he's an erratic quarterback. I
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: think the turnover where he plays at stuck mentioned earlier
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: in the fact that he's had no turns is kind
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: of kind of the way he plays football. So I
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: think the fact that he scores a lot of points.
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: I like the Jets plus seven. I'm with you guys
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: in terms of that play overall, just based off the injuries.
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: I think the short resting is just the fact that again,
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: like he's a passer in the past, a lot of turnovers,
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: a lot of interceptions, which leads to the other team
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: scoring points. I think the six and four number, I'd
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: have to look back, but I imagine some of those
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: games as underdogs.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: But I doubt he's a favored by a touchdowner more
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: correct both games, and like.
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I would have to go back and see, I'm
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: not sure in any of those games he'd be favored
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: by that much. Would probably be a good added note
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: to it. So I think the weight is if anything,
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: I'd honestly look to the over like Tyrod not doing
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: a ton of turnovers, Like the totals come down two
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: and a half points or so from the open, So
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: maybe something to that in the sense that you know
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: Baker's gonna be slinging it here.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do want to mention I took the Bucks
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: minus seven. I placed it on the app. I am
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: gonna look, I took the Bucks minus seven. I am
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: going to look to buy out of that at the
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: earliest possible opportunity. Right now, I see six and a
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: half's everywhere on the Jets, and so I'm gonna have
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: to wait to see if that pops back up.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: They're still seven seven you can get a seven. Uh,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: there's sevens of DraftKings last I checked. I will say
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: this could do the one thing. This could actually work
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: against him here in a short week because he did
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: get banged up a little bit at the end of
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: that game. Yeah right, he was able to finish, but
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: he heard his knee. Remember he went down. He gravitz.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: We don't know your adrenaline's going was a game. If
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: that like flares up, he's gonna play. But like maybe
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: he's not his mobile. Maybe he's just not at one
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: hundred percent. I don't hate the total look. I think
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: the Jets will have to throw a bit more. They're
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: gonna have to change up their offense from what they
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: did last week a bit. They're gonna have some new looks,
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: probably that Tampa is not ready for. And maybe the
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: Bucks go tempo here because their offensive line is decimated,
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: Like they might have to start a rookie at guard.
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: So in order to keep that Jets pass rush at
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: Bay using tempo, which they were flying a bit last
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: week to protect their offensive line against those Texans pass rushers.
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: So you could see the Bucks maybe utilize a little
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: bit more tempo this week. So I don't hate that.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: Look they were super productive running the ball, though, I
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: mean they were, they kind of kicked the shit out
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: of them, So I don't know. I don't know if
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: they change a whole lot. It's been working for them.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: I get the injuries, but if it's working, it's working.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Uh. There's at least a chance that brock Purty starts
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: this week. He's taking reps behind Mac Jones. I actually
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: think he's third right now at practice, but if he
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: gears up for a full practice on Friday, there's a
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: chance that he plays as a forty nine ers better
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: this week. I honestly don't care. And we've seen that
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: line is it's been one of the biggest shifts so
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: far this week. I got the Niners money line at
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: plus one hundred right now they are minus two and
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: a half out there. I honestly don't care if Perdy plays,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: and I'm kind of in on the Mac Jones experience.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Also Arizona. That team outscored nineteen to seven in the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: second half against Kendrick sad Cats. So definitely a team
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: that I looking to fade. Where do you sit, Kendra.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: As far as perhaps putting the mac Jones hate down
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: for a week and backing the Niners, I.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: Don't want to take the cheese. That's where I'm at
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: in this game. It feels too obvious. It feels like
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers should be the choice here. Don't
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: care about the injuries, don't care if Prety plays. The
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: Cardinals do not deserve the wins that they've had this season.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: They have looked like crap against terrible teams. And regardless
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: of the fact that the forty nine ers have a
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: lot of injuries, they draft well.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: I'm higher on Kyle Shanahan than a lot of people.
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: I think that he gets a lot of hate, some
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: of it deserves, some of it not. This forty nine
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: Ers team just has depths that the Cardinals don't. I'm
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: actually going to make part of my personality hating Kyler
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: Murray at this point because of a social media post
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: he had this week. I'm so anti Kyler Murray now
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: it's not even funny, I'm praying on his downfall. So
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: regardless of if it's Mac Jones or Kyler Murray, I'm
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: gonna hate this game. This just feels too obvious with
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: the forty nine ers that I feel like, I'm like,
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: what am I missing? I'm trying to convince myself that
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: the bet that feels like the easy bet you shouldn't bet.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: Am I wrong here for thinking that? Because I feel
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: like every time I'm like, that's easy money is when
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: I get burned.
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: I can't bet this game personally. Yeah, sometimes it can
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: feel like that in the NFL, or it might look
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: too easy for a reason. But I don't know if
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: pretty or Jones is going to play, and if Party
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: does plays one hundred pcent, I would assume they rest
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: him here. You know, there is a couple point difference.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: But the other thing is the Cardinals second, I don't
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: know who's going to play in the Cardinal secondary. All
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: three of their corners are hurt. One went to IR
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: one didn't practice yesterday, And I was actually liking their
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: secondary coming into the year after some of the additions,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: and will Johnson looked really good. He didn't practice yesterday.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: Williams went on ir Melton was banged up, so like,
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: who's playing corner for the Cardinals. I don't know. This
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: is pure, pure stay away for me.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Time for an Evan Abrams trend. Here, the forty nine
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Ers have an opportunity to start three and oh against
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: the spread against the Cardinals this week. That would be
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: the first time they've done that since two thousand and nine,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: and that was their only three and oh ats start
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: in forty years. So, Kendra, you are on the money
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: with saying if it feels too easy, you might want
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: to stay away. I'm happy with where I'm sitting. This
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: is not a position that I want to buy out in,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: but I got it at a really good price. I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: don't think that forty nine Ers minus two and a
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: half is a smart bet right now. The most heavily
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: bet games of the week so far, according to Action
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Network tracking Thursday Night Football. Those standalone spots are always
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: going to be high on the list. Packers, Browns, Chiefs Giants,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: that's Sunday Night Football and Eagles Rams. These are some
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: really polarizing games for sports betters. A disclaimer that is
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: worth mentioning. And I know that we are on an
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: NFL betting podcast. But you do not have to bet
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: every game that's out there. Forget your fomo. Only bet
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the games that you feel like you have a good
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: read on. I'm on eight games this week as it
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: stands right now, we'll probably end up adding more to
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the mix. I have two teasers and a total. I
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: don't need my money tied up on the Cleveland Browns,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: So guys, I'm good just staying away from this Packers Browns.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: It feels like people are gonna want to bet this
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: game to make a statement a statement of how good
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers are or a statement of how
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: big their balls are by betting on the Cleveland Browns
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: and taking the points here. So I'm it's a stay
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: away for me or either of you on this football game.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: I wish I'd gotten in on the six and a half,
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: but I didn't get there in time. Because if I'd
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: gotten in on the six and a half, I probably
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: would have gotten in on it. The only thing that
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: I could potentially get to the window on is the
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: total of forty one and a half in this game,
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: just because I think what's likely to happen is the
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: Packers get up comfortably and then sit starters, and even
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: though they sit starters, I don't think it's going to
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: be that big of a I don't think the Browns
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: are going to be able to put up points. The
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: Packers defense is just too insane. I think, genuinely, what's
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: going to happen. Packers are going to get a.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: Comfortable lead sid starters, and it's that's just how it's
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: going to go. I might be on the under.
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: I bet the Browns, so again, ignore what do you
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: I think this line should probably be seven. Do you
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: have to remember the Browns so far have played Joe
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: Burrow and that Bengals offense and Lamar Jackson and the
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: Ravens offense. The Ravens offense that did whatever wanted against
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: the Bills last week. Don't don't look at the final score,
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: which is forty one to seventeen. They had Derrick Henry
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: had eleven carries for twenty yards. They had two hundred
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: and forty yards of offense. The Ravens scored on a
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: bunch of flute plays and then you know that, a
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: couple of defensive scores and then Lamar Jackson running around
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: doing Lamar Jackson things. The Browns also held the Bengals
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: to two yards in the second half, two yards. Their
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: defense is playing at an elite level at home, catching
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: over a touchdo out. I had to take it again.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: Does it feel scary to take the Browns? Yeah? Does
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: it feel scared to fade the Packers? Yes'm I guess
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: I'm making a statement of both. I think the Packers
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: are legit. They were the only Super Bowl future I
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: placed it in May. It was before Parsons got there.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: I love this team. But is there a chance that
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: the Packers aren't this great? Absolutely? Like maybe Week one
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: the Lions with their new coordinators, they were just a mess.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: What the Commanders, I'm not that high on this year.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: And maybe like there's just two games that you have
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: to remember. And the Ravens were laying eleven and a
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: half last week at home, and now the against the Browns. Now,
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the Browns are catching eight and a half at home,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: adding one point for home field either way. And now
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: we're saying the Ravens and the Packers are in like
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: we're pricing them in a similar manner. I can't get there.
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: I'll make the Packers prove it to me. I think
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: this will be a lower scoring game. I agree with Kendra,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: which makes the points even more valuable. So I took
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: the Browns. I think the Packers love like this is
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: the peak. This is the peak of their value, I think,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: and who wants to bet the Browns after last week?
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: But I trust their defense to keep them in this
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: at home, And yeah, I took. I took eight and
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: Browns are pass It's definitely Browns are passed. But for
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: me it is a strong pass because I am buying in.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I think obviously we could all be overreacting positively or
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: negatively to the things that we see through the first
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: two weeks. I think the Packers are this good, and
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: if they are this good, this numbers should probably be
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: closer to ten. But you know, this is what we
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: tend to do. So eight and a half for a
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: home team that has a good defense. You have to
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: have some redeeming quality in order to place a bet
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: on a team, and the Browns at least have that.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Are you guys ready? Four our three musketeers parlay all
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: for one and one for all last week? Kendra, you
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: were the one that carried the team. You had the
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Panthers plus six and a half against the Cardinals, Stucky
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: and I did not get home with our bets. So
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you kick us off. You have two nominees,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: and then Stucky and Ill we'll decide which one we
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: throw into the favorites parlay.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: So I'm on the Colts and the Lions this week,
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: but I gave you guys options between two anytime touchdowns.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: I'm calling it the Battle of the touchdown list? Stars.
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: Are we going Lad McConkey for in anytime or BTJ
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: for in any time? Because my whole thing is the
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: fact that it's about to be Week three. Neither of
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: I would say the two best receivers on both of
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: these teams haven't scored a touchdown.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: You the fact that they haven't been involved. It's time.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: It's got to be here. I think the values here.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: It's not going to get any better for either of
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: them this season. BTJ, big big, big revenge game for
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the Jaguars.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: I don't know if you guys remember the Aziz all
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: sha year situation last year with Trevor Lawrence and how
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: that all unfolded. Texan's coming back to Jacksonville BTJ allegedly
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: having an injured wrist. Apparently one of his friends died recently,
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: just having like an all time low on the BTJ train.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: I think they've got to get him involved, got to
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: get his confidence up, got to go to him in
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: the red zone, constantly has to score this week. Lad McConkey,
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: on the other hand, I hadn't any time for him
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: in Week one. I thought that he was the best
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: option for them to throw too in that game. Didn't happen,
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: didn't get to it last week because of that. Sitting
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: here now got to be lad McConkie time. Which one
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: are you guys in on?
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: I'll say you gotta go maconky because I just, I
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: just we both have are gonna have tough corner matchups.
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: But I think the Broncos Chargers is a sneaky over
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: and I just don't know BTJ. Maybe he's going through
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: some other stuff because it's his friend, as you mentioned,
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: did die. But I don't know if he's fully healthy,
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: so maybe there is an injury. So because of that uncertainty,
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: this this Chargers offense is rolling right now. The Broncos
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: defense might not be as good as many thought coming
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: into the year.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Have them in fantasy. It's killing me.
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, So I think we got to go Maconkey there.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have a tie split. So BRIANTJ does have
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: a touchdown, he had a rushing touchdown. He just doesn't
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: have a But I think they're gonna force feed him.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: This is all that Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence have
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: been asked about this week in Jacksonville.
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: And I think that is he healthy is the question.
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't. I would agree with you in principle, But is.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Health the health I think impacts his ability to confidently
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: catch passes over the middle. It doesn't. I don't think
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: a wrist injury is gonna is gonna stop him from
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: going over the top of the defense and you know
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: go those but that.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: That going over the middle, that will reduce your chances
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: of ways to score.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Corner. It's a corner in the end zone, fade touchdown
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: pass from Trevor.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: Wills against the one of the best corners in the NFL.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: Break Yeah.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Well, the price also matters here. Can we get it?
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Because I want the or payout if we're going between
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: these two.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: He was one sixty and BTJ was one for maybe
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: hold on McConkie won sixty. BTJ won forty five corracked.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Evan break the tie.
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: McConkie, all right, you scoring game, He'll he'll figure it out,
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: thank you.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Ev all right, I need BTJ to catch a touchdown.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: No more, no more rushing. I need you to catch something, please.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: I can't sit here and sweat this out any longer.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: It's it's Keenan Allen that throws me off because he's
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: sold I know, but he's like he's not going away.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: And then you have Quentin Johnston who's hogging all of
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the touchdowns. So between those between Alan gobbling up targets
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: and and then Johnson gobbling up the touchdowns. And this
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: team still does want to run the ball a little bit,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: even though they haven't been good at it. All right, stucky,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: we got McConkie. Anytime touchdown in there? Your nominees, please.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: Let's see. I mean, you guys are probably not gonna
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: want to bet a lot of mine. So what I
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: bet so far to say, I've bet the Dolphins. I
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: have the brown. So I just talked about uh and
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: these weeked I mean I could go on, I could
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: go on for days about the trends of oh and
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: two teams I own two underdogs already mentioned forty twenty
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: one and one against the spread. I wondered I was
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: catching over seven in Week three. It's like double overreaction,
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: so we could go to Browns. I did play the
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: the Rams, so I guess I'll throw out the Rams
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: that Actually, I think you guys can stomach that one
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: or that's a yeah the shoes h So we'll go
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: Rams one. I mean, look, this Eagles offense. I thought
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Cominer was gonna take a step back because of the
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: coordinator change. I thought the defense is gonna take a
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: step back because of everything they lost, and that's that's
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: what we've seen. And last week, without that Kelsey drop,
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: they probably lose to the Chiefs. And think about this,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: this Eagles offense, like they they had two They've completed
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: two passes over ten yards. They played the Cowboys, who
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: just gave up seven trillion yards to Russell Wilson, and
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: then they played the Chiefs, who have issues in the
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: back end of their defense. They didn't they got carved
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: by Justin Herbert and they didn't. They couldn't throw against either,
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: so and then their defense is just not getting the
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: same amount of pressure. I think it's gonna take us
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: about the play calling is bad McVeigh eighteen eleven and
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: two against the spread as a dog of three or
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: more fourteen seven and one against the spread in the
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: Eastern time zone. And here's my Bowld prediction. I wish
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: I could put a bet on this. McVeigh went to
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: the league office about the Toush push.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: Yes, I was just gonna say the conspiracy theory I'm in.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: They're gonna call They're gonna call a false start or two.
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: Now they might call neutral zone infraction two, but who
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: cares if they call both. So the Eagles are always
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: going to get their toush push. They it's fourth and one,
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: they're always gonna get it. So if you call a
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: neutral zone infection they get they get the first time away.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: But if they call false starter or two, that could
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: be the difference between say they're at the goal line,
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: it's fourth and goal with to one oh false start
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: off sides on the offense. For that's a difference between
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: a field going to touchdown. That could be four points.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: So if it's a midfield, that's difference between keeping the
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: drive going and probably scoring or punting. So a little
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: potential hit an edge there. But This Rams offense is
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: playing really well. Their defense can get pressures, playing really well,
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: and I just don't trust this Eagles offense yet.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Right now, I don't I think you. I think you
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: can stop the sale. Honestly, Yeah, I think we're all good.
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: The Rams are getting the league makeup calls this week.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: I'm not betting on this game, but if I know
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: one thing, I know that they are going to be
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: getting these makeup calls for last week. They're going to
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: benefit off of this, and they the league wants to
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: ban the toush push and they're going to make the
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: case to do it at all.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: I want to talk about this week too, so it
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: makes sense to send a message.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The betting splits are in our favor as well.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: When a team has been catching more than sixty percent
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: of the bets, they have not been covering so far
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: this year. Right now, the Eagles seventy three percent of
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the bets, the Rams sixty eight percent of the money.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely feel like the right side. But can
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I help the ante on this. I think we should
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: throw the Rams money line into the parlay instead of
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: the spread.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: I'm fine with that little Rams revenge from last year.
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: Think I remember they went. McVay knows how to. I
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: don't know how what he does or how he gets
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: his team ready, but these East Coast.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: Games he's good on. Isn't he good on the road
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: or no?
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's He's fourteen seven to one against the spread
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: on the Eastern time zone like he he always has
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: his team ready for these, like they almost they in
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: the snow with old Stafford. They were twenty yards away
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: from beating the Eagles last year. And the Eagles were
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: a better team with a better off its coordinator last season.
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: And I think the Rams overall have improved from last
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: year's team. So yeah, we can throw a Rams money
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: line in there.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Are you worried about Stafford's back at all?
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: Matter?
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah? It's always a flare up, for sure. And part
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: of me is just like, all right, am I overreacting?
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Am?
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: I overreacting to what we've seen from the Eagles. But
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: this was my thought process coming into the year. And
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: then like, am I overreacting to the Rams who have
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: played the Texans and Titans? Maybe? But all right, let's
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: let's throw the Rams money line in with mcconfie touchdown.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we did catch that Kia reference right there by
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the way. All right, my two the Rabbits.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: I hate you for both of these so much.
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: I'm on the opposite side of you for both of them.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Why are you making me choose between Satan and the
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: de I.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Do have, I do have more than two. I just
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: threw two in there for simplicity.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: So yeah, dag me I.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I mean I left mac Jones out of it. I
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: am on the Niners too, But.
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: Patts plus Jones, pat.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Plus Pats plus one and a half against the Steelers,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Titans plus three and a half against the Indianapolis Colts. Guys,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I know what that. We said on Tuesday that it
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: was either Sunday or to one of our last episodes.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: We said that at some point we're gonna have to
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: fade this Indianapolis Colts team. Well, I say, why not us?
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Why not? Now? On the Tennessee Titans catching a field
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: goal and the hook. This is Danny Dimes on the
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: road as the public side against the divisional rival. You
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: talk about the Green Bay Packers reaching the peak of
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: the market. I think this is the Colts reaching the
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: peak of the market. Also, teams that are own two
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: straight up are thirty one and twenty seven straight up
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: forty seventeen and one against the spread. That's seventy percent
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: in week three since twenty ten. Betting the Titans to me,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: feels like an absolute must this week. I don't think
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: we should wait any longer on this Colt's fade. We
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: could even throw the Titans plus four in there, because
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing that out there.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Titans plus four, you could. There's a little bit
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: more expensive four and a half they if anyone's into
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: do theory, which I'm not. But the Titans are zero
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: to nine against the spread in their past nine home games,
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: so maybe nobody beats the Titans nine ten times in
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: a row against the spread in Nashville, but those fans
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: have not seen. I feel bad for season ticket holders
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: in Tennessee.
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: No, they're horrible even they're so mean's male eater?
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Yah? Should I do the pat sale? So I have
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: the Pats plus one and a half at home. Pittsburgh's
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: last outright road win against the Patriots came in two
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: thousand and eight. Now is that relevant? No, But it's
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: a fun fact. That's not why I'm betting them. Like,
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I really like the way the Patriots looked last week.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: I know that they played against the Miami Dolphins and
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: that has a lot to do with it, but even
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: vermondre Stevenson looked good. And the Pittsburgh defense has been terrible.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: They're twenty ninth in the league and scoring defense thirty
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: one in defensive success rate. Bad offense, bad defense. A
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: coach that can't beat New England for whatever voodoo reason,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: not a deserving favorite on the road. So I like
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: backing the home dog.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know where to go here.
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: I am on the opposite side of both of these,
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: so I feel like I'm.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Putting in a parlay against my best interest.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: I also like dolls playing Dallas practice yesterday.
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: Okay, So I was listening to Rabel's press conference yesterday
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: and someone asked him if Gonzalez was gonna practice, and
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: Rabel's answer was, he's gonna do some stuff.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: That's an improvement, that's a step in the right direction
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: from doing nothing.
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: But then I was listening to a podcast of some
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: Patriots insiders and they're saying that they're not sure, but
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: they feel like he'll probably come back for the Bills game.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: So I genuinely don't know if he's playing, I'm gonna
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: lean towards no.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: God, I don't know they.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: Really need him back. I mean because that that's been
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: one of their weakest areas. Uh, because I thought Drake
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: May played well last week?
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Did rewatch that game like I promised that I would.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: Their secondary has been like just horrendous for two weeks
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: in a row, and Gonzales.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Not sure it matters against this team. But I'm not.
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: Saying well either, I'm just saying for the value of
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: getting Gonzalez back would be significant. I will also mention
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: this years have a on of injuries like there are defense.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: They could be without four or five starters on defense,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: and Watt just doesn't look like the same caliber player.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: Credit to him for demanding the money when he did
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: get it, because I'm not sure he would have after
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: this season and what he looks like right now.
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: I think high Smith is the only one who's ruled
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: out for the Steelers right now. I think everybody else
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: is expected to play, except I don't know about Joey
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: Porter Junior. I feel like he probably will play. My
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: big thing is that I get the TJ. Watt hasn't
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: been himself, but the Patriots offensive line has looked quote
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: unquote serviceable through these first two weeks, but they've got
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: a breakdown at some point. I mean, Campbell just keeps
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: getting penalty after penalty. Ah, I guess, I guess I'm
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: gonna go with the Titans. I hate this so much,
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: but yeah, I also have the.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Bears plus one if you guys wanted a third option,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I really like that. But the blowout bounce back at home.
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, teas teams after a thirty point loss usually a
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: good bet.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: I like the Bears because they're oer and two at home.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's you want to toss the other two
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: to the side. We go. Bears plus one is the
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: third leg sucky.
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm okay with that. I mean, just teams that
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: lose by thirty plus sixty percent as a dog are
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: a favorite of under a field goal fifty five percent overall,
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: like going back forever. Like again, don't overreact. Usually you
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: might get a point or two value. The market's betting
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: against these teams, Like who wants to bet the Bears
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: after seeing them lose by thirty and they're owing two
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: and you saw the Cowboys win and the Bears secondary
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: is scary? They have like all these injuries going up
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: go up against the Cowboys receivers, but like this is
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: Dallas outdoors, there could be some wind. I'm cool with
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: the Bears. I will just throw one of my favorite
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: trends for the Titans, and the Titans injuries worry me
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: a bit, Like they have injuries offensive line and the secondary.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: Excuse me on the offensive line and then the defensive line,
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: like they need sweat in there because take that he's
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: helpful for the run game. Takes attention away from Simmons.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: So we'll see who ends up playing. But this goes
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: back to the whole theme of the podcast. Over reactions
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: Weeks two through five over the past twenty years, road
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: favorites after winning as a home underdog. So this is
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: early in the year. Everyone just saw a team win
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: as a home underdog that was expected to lose, and
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: then they go out on the road in their favorite
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: So this is a team that maybe overachieved early and
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: maybe people are thinking that is better than they really are.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: This fits the Colts to a t so road favorites
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: weeks two through five early in the season, then that
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: win as a home dog, go on the road in
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: our favor seventeen thirty nine and one against the spread.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: That's thirty percent. They're failing to cover by about six
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: points per game when favored by more than a field goal,
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: six and sixteen against the spread when they're playing a
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: team with a losing record, which is definitely the Titans
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: eleven twenty nine to one against the spread twenty seven
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: and a half percent. So like that just speaks to
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: this whole thing, like, hey, there's a there's a decent
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: chance the Colts. This is probably the peak of the
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: valley and they're probably not as good as we've seen,
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: and the Titans, I think are going to continue to
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: keep improving. So I was okay with the Titans.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not a Colts truther, but the Titans are ass.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: I think cam Ward is going to be a spread coverer.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: Though in Denver they were down three at the start
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: of the fourth quarter, they lost Zeitler, their offensive line,
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: and then it led to a sack that really led
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: to a short field touch on flipped the game and
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: they didn't have sweat in there. Simmons had nothing left
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter. So that's what concerns me here.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: But the Colts pass rush isn't the Rams, and it's
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: not the Broncos. They're like bottom five and Prussure eight.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: So Ward might be a little bit more comfortable here
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: in this division game division like this. I think this
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: should be three max. So I was cool with both.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: But Kenjer, I'm cool with the Bears too. Bears as
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: you can get plus one.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Get ev into time break again.
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: No, I'm cool with the Bears.
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: Kender, Yeah, I'm cool with the Bears. I think the
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: Colts just have aura. Dude, I don't know what it is.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: I don't think that there was Daniel Jones as.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I think they they probably have home aura, though I
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: think they play. I feel pretty confident in saying that
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: that team inside of that dome in Indianapolis, that's gonna
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: be a tough team to beat there.
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: I'm going to tell you guys a secret. Do you
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: guys follow the seth Erkson kid who sings the songs
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: he writes about the Colts every week?
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: Of course? How do you not?
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: I bet on the Colts games, whether if the song
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: isn't a banger, I know to bet on the Colts,
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: and if it is a banger, I know to bet
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: against the Colts.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: This week not a banger.
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: All right, we can we have a I'm going to
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: test you with this, Brandon. You have to we can
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: get like a whiteboard or a notepad, and we have
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: to keep track of all of Kender's crazy systems. So
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: we have some. We have Moon's no girl Dad's girl
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: Dad's Moons. Now, I don't know some singer.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: You don't know who Seth is the Colts kid.
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: I doubt know. I actually I don't who is it.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: His name is Seth Erkson I R K S E N.
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: And he writes songs every single week about the Colts matchups.
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: Okay, so.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: To send this in slack and then I'll tell I
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: got my notepad here, We'll get that on.
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: We'll get I can serve, I can start a system.
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: It's girl dads after their daughters born first when first
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: came back.
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: W Moons.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: No, I'm not really high on the Moons. I just
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: the fact I couldn't ignore this one nine and one
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: on a particular moon kind of crazy. I'm and I
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: like a weird angle. And then yes, if it's not
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: a banger, I'm.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: Betting on the Colts. And then this week no bangers,
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: no bangers. We close my other show with it every
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: single week, just so everyone can get the vibe to.
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: Your your Uh, it's our producer just said, you're waxing
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: and waning on your lunar takes.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: No, I'm not. I'm not. I'm not saying anything. I'm not.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not always on the moon. I'm just saying this
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: one was too good to ignore.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not always on the moon. As it has to
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: be the line of the podcast. So we have Rams
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: plus one fifty five. We've got on the Monday line.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: We've got Lad McConkie anytime touchdown. We've got the Bears
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: plus one estimate on price for at plus nine five.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: We'll have this logged in the app. That right there
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be our three Musketeers parlay this week.
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: You've better ruin it again this week, burn mine. I
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: didn't ruin anything because you already ruined it by then.
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: So like if you hadn't, my bet would have won.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: So we at least would have had a hedgeable opportunity
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: on Monday night. So I'll give you that. I just laugh.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: But we might be we might be cooking.
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: What are you? Where are you? What are you guys watching?
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: What is your setup or what are you doing for
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: the games on Sunday?
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: I feel like I'm working at six o'clock in the
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: morning on Sunday for f one and then I'm gonna
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: have a brunch thing that i have to go to after.
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: But I will be on my couch, three TVs in
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: a laptop immediately after that at one o'clock for the
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: rest of the day and I'm not moving.
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: That sounds like That's sounds like mine. If I don't
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: go to the bar, then yeah, I have three TVs,
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: my laptop out and I'll eat a little gummy bear
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: around eleven yep, and then order some food. We'll do
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: my do college football podcast, Shout Out Big that's on campus,
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: listen to some voicemails, get yelled at, and.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Then uh, wait, what's your game day meal?
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: It depends. I don't have a I don't have a constant.
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: Maybe I'll get Zaxby's in the sauce, but yeah, I
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: don't need to do that. But uh, I'll order something
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: big and really good around here from like one of
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: my favorite staurants and just get a ton of food
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: and then yeah, sit for We'll be doing the live
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: show at Semple usually just sit down on the couch
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: from one until Sunday night football is over.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Uh So I love being a piece of on Sundays.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Best Red Zone channel I am.
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: My kid is five years old, about to turn six.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: He's just now into the idea of watching football and
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: he cheers for whoever has the lead. That's his thing
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: right now. But it is very confusing sitting back. Last
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: week was the first week I've watched Red Zone with him.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: So he like gets into one game and then all
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: of a sudden they're onto the next one, and I'm
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: having to teach him that Scott Hansen has taking us
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: on a He's taking us on a magical carpet ride.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: How he's five?
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: Does he get the Witching Hour? Yet?
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: We're not there yet.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: When you have a kid, how do you, like, do
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: you want to make sure to be a responsible father
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: that there they don't go down the path of becoming
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: a fan of a team that's going to lead to
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: a life of pain.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: So the Jaguars are awesome.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like you don't want to be for example, you
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: don't want to become a Jaguars fan.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I'm a Dolphins fan.
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: I do the Dolphins lost it? Like, do you want
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: you really wanted to be a Dolphins fan?
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Who not? Really? Not really? Right now, I think he's
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: on a good path. Whoever has more points, that's the
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: team that he cheers for, and I think it's a
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: good place to start when you're five. Okay, trying to
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: teach him the game, I did get up. So speaking
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: of rewatching Pats Dolphins, because he knows I'm a Dolphins fan,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: he gets excited when the Dolphins are on the screen.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: He woke up this is like Monday or Tuesday morning,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: and I asked him, do you want to watch you know,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Bluie or Mickey Mouse, you know, one of his cartoons
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: when we get up in the morning, and he goes,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: can we watch the Dolphins? And I was like, and
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: so he doesn't know that this is a painful experience
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: for me. I just but I'm excited that he wants
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: to watch football. So I turned the Pats Dolphins game on.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: It's six o'clock in the morning to start the week.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: I've already lived through this and now I have to
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: relive this. Friend, what do you do? And I'm not
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: gonna say no. I love the fact that he's asking
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: to watch football.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: Oh no, that is so tragic. We watched the Dolphins
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: and not the Patriots exactly.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, the kids will pick up. Whatever
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: it is you get excited about, kids will get excited
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: about too. There's my dad advice for the week. Stucky.
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: Okay, write that.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Down almost ten to one on our three leg parlay.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for this week's episode. Special Thanks to
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: the producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, and of course Matt Mitchell,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: the one and only. Thank you for helping to build
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: this channel into what it is. You are a true
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: legend in my book. And if you need to cut
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: this at the end of the episode, by all means
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: do so, but it needed to be said. Thank you
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: from all of us. The Favorites will return next on
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. We'll have a full recap for you. We'll
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: see how he did with all of our bets. Thanks
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: so much for tuning in. We'll catch you next time
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: right here on the Favorites podcast. Let's catch these tickets.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler