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Best Bets Today | Panthers at Lambeau Under the Lights?! | NFL, WNBA, NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Thursday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, we had a good day on the show yesterday.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: I do have to update the ticker here. Actually, hold on.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Let me do that. I should update it to say
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: that I'm hot, by the way. Because we are right
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: now on the show. We had a 3-1 day yesterday.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on. I'm jumping the gun here, man. I need
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: to update this. It's going to be 280 and 215,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I think is what that's going to be.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: We're updated. There you go. 3-1 on the show yesterday.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: NBA went 2-1 yesterday. which I was worried about, they
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: pretty much had a wire-to-wire cover and then tried to
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: blow it pretty much at the end. They were winning
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: that game outright in the second half, and then all
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: of a sudden they were down eight late in the game.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh my God, we're not going to win
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: this one. But they got back within the number, and
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: they wound up losing by some number that was less
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: than what the spread was. So I'll take it. Once
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: they got back to within... Whatever it was, I think
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: they got back to within three points or something. I'm like,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: all right, we're going to get this one done. They'll
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: foul one more time, and that'll be it. So that's
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: what happened. We were able to get that one right.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Minnesota was obviously not right. That was bad. Yeah, there's
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: nothing else to say about that. I don't think they
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: were ever covering in the game. It was the wrong call.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: It wasn't really that misleading. Yeah, they did not have
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: a chance to cover that, even though they Got back
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: into the game, and they almost had a chance to
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: tie it at the end and possibly send it into overtime.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Would have been a really lucky winner if that had
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: actually transpired. It did not. We did not deserve to
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: win that one. That was a bad call. Sometimes it happens,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: and we won with Denver. I think that was the
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: first result that came home. Denver Nuggets, easy win on
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: that one. They pretty much had a big lead the
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: whole game, wire-to-wire cover, easy winner there. And then we
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: won with the NHL game, too, even though Colorado started
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: out the game down 1-0. They swung the game pretty quickly.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: I think by the end of the second period, they
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: had a multiple goal lead, and then that was pretty
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: much it. I think they were ahead 5-1, I think,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: with like four minutes left, and they gave up a
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: garbage goal near the end. I guess debatably, I should
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: start switching to winning regulation on some of these bets.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: It's not going to matter today as far as what
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: my hockey card looks like, but Yeah, we got the win, though.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: It was an easy win, nonetheless. Colorado, they dominated that game.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: There's nothing misleading about it, really. Colorado, yeah, they were
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the way better team in the game. Wasn't even close, statistically. So,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: all right. And then congratulations, I guess, to the Milwaukee
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Brewers as they finished it off. Thought that they would yesterday. Mizorowski,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: good start from him, and it just went from there.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay could not get anything going on offense in
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: that game. Milwaukee was able to use their better relievers
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: to their advantage in the game, and good pitching performance
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: all around from Milwaukee. They won the game. Yeah, that
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: was it, man. They got enough timely hitting in the
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: game to.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: To win the game. So in a game like that,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: you score four, pretty likely you're going to win. I
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: expected the game to be a little bit higher scoring
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: than it really was, but maybe I shouldn't have. Obviously,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: the better way to play that game was definitely the Brewers. So, yeah,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think I have a whole lot else. College football,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I was right about Kennesaw and not right about the
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: other games. So, you know, it is what it is.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: You're going to be right about certain things. That was
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: my stronger opinion. You're going to be right about certain
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: things that you leave off your card. It just is
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: what it is. hindsight makes you feel worse about it,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, like I wish I put
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw in my contest entry, where you have to pick
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: seven games, whatever, I didn't have it in there either,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: but it is what it is, all right, we have
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of hockey today, a little bit of NBA,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: we're all across the board, the equinox is over, because
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: there's no baseball anymore, we do have WNBA, I'm going
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to give out a play in that game, Yeah, just
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: help me, I guess. We need to get a winner
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: in the WNBA, man. Get back on track with that.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: And I will have a play in the NFL game
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: as well. And there is a little bit of college
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: football to discuss as well. But I like one of
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the sides in the NFL game enough to do it,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: even though I hate this NFL week, I'm going to
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: warn you. I did really well the last two weeks,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: but this week is not going to be one of
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: those weeks. I'm going to be treading really lightly. Tonight's
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: game is one of the better games One of the
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: absolute best games on the board, I think, as far
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: as finding a way to play it. So I think
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I might only have one play on Sunday. So just
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: be aware of that. And it is a heavy bye
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: week as well. All right, but we'll get into hockey
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: first after the intro.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: You got a.
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: Slip in your palm and a hole in your chest
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head Now
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: you stare at the chips like they made you this
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: man But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: the floor Your name still means something to somebody for
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: Hold on.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Not tonight.
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: Not now.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on. Let me pull you out. That
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: fell apart by its heart. But it don't get the crown.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Alright, let's get into it, man. Hockey is first up here.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: I'm treading pretty carefully with this hockey board, even though
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I think we have about 12 games here. All at night.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I should do WNBA first because it's in the afternoon, but... Whatever.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: We'll get to it before the game starts, obviously. Winnipeg-Tampa
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Bay is the first hockey game here. Tampa Bay is
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: the way better team, so you'll notice that they're favored
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: by a huge amount here. And Tampa Bay is coming
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: off a couple losses, but they're coming home from a
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: road trip. And I talk about how difficult that is
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of times. They were just out on the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast, then in high elevation. They beat Vegas, lost
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: to Colorado, lost to Utah in overtime. All three of
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: those teams are pretty good. Now they're returning home from that.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: They do have a bunch of days off, though, four
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: days off. Sometimes that will kind of mitigate the return
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: home spot a little bit, but I think sometimes it
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: can also have the reverse effect where you get too
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: settled in at home. But what we do know is
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: that when a team returns home from the road and
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: they're away for basically a week, let's say, there's stuff
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: to do back at home, and it can become a
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: distraction when you get back home. They do have to
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: go right back out on the road after this, although
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: it's only for a single game, I think. Yeah, to Nashville.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: So it is kind of a weird spot here. And
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: this Winnipeg team has not really been playing that well.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay coming off kind of a tough game against Utah.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: So that does have me kind of leaning towards Winnipeg
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: in this one. Winnipeg, they played some close-time losses. They're
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: on a bad losing stretch right now, though. They're not
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: that good, obviously. They've lost six games in a row here.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Watching Hellebook be on a winning team now. Although we
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: got the win against the Devils last night, but yeah.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg coming off a real ugly loss to Florida last
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: time out of the Florida's definitely a good team but
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: losing 5-1 at home that's ugly and you do want
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: to look to play on teams that have real ugly
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: home losses in hockey they do have a tendency to
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: bounce back and Winnipeg is starting a road trip here
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: which I think is a positive spot you're usually focused
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: to start the road trip although up next they do
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: have a revenge game against Florida tomorrow so that would
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: worry me slightly that they kind of want to redeem
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: themselves for that loss to Florida in their previous game.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: But I don't think they're going to overlook Tampa. Tampa's
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: a good team, so you get up for a game
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: like this. So I would lean Winnipeg in this one.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: You'll be fading the public, and you'll get them at
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: a huge underdog price if you do. Tampa Bay, 91%
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: of tickets, 94% of the cash on them. They're minus
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: 240 almost, minus 230-something, basically, is where this money line is.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Kind of ridiculous. You could take Winnipeg probably plus 40,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: one and a half goals here at a reasonable price
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: and just take them to come within the puck line,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: something like that, or split the bet puck line money line. Uh,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I would, I mean, obviously if you're going to play Winnipeg,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I would recommend putting some amount of it on the
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: money line anyway, because it's hockey. And if you think
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the underdog has a good chance, well then yeah, like
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: obviously you want to have some money on that money line.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: It's a small, it's a, uh, It's a low-scoring sport.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: It's a close sport. So any underdog has a decent...
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: If you think they have a decent chance to win,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: then obviously, yeah. You should have that money on the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: money line because, yeah, they do have a decent chance
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: to win. Any team in hockey really has a decent
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: chance to win. It's just if you... You want that
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: underdog to be in a good spot at least. All right.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Utah-Pittsburgh is next. Pittsburgh... Staying at home, they've won two
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: games in a row, so they didn't really have a
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: letdown after shutting out the Panthers. They beat Nashville in
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: the next game, which may have been a loss for
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: us on the show. I can't remember. I forget if
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I had that game or not on the card. Maybe
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I did not. I don't know Utah I believe is
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: are they starting a road trip I think they are
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: let me say they are but Utah is coming off
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: a couple of tough games where they beat the Lightning
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: like I said and then they played the Wild after
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: that that was a big game that's a divisional game
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: against a good opponent Minnesota so Utah coming off kind
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: of a tougher game here. Normally I would say, yeah,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip, it's a positive spot, a focused spot.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: But in this case, I think I'd rather have Pittsburgh
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: staying at home off a couple losses rather than Utah
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: coming off a couple of difficult games. So I think
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is the way to look in this game if
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: you're going to play it. Utah is a public side,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: 77% of the tickets, 64% of the cash. So the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: money is seemingly agreeing with Pittsburgh here. Less of the
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: money is on Utah than with the Ticket percentages, so they're, yeah,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: they're a public side, and some of the professional money
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: appears to be on the Penguins' side. Even though I
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: don't think the Penguins are that good, but the oddsmakers
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: are also, like, they're telling you that, right? Like, Utah's
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: a road favorite here because everybody knows, well, not everybody knows,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: but the oddsmakers certainly know Utah is the better team here.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Utah about minus 130, and while, yes, I agree Utah
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: is the better team in a spot like this, I'd
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: prefer to have Pittsburgh in that game. Not a play
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: for me, though. Next game is Columbus, Carolina. Carolina's coming
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: off a tough game against the Bruins. Bruins continue to
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: play tough, although they lost that game. That was close.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I think that was a 1-1 game throughout a lot
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: of it. I saw there was a really good fight
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: that happened in the game. That video was going around.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Neither player even won. I don't even remember which two
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: players were involved in it. But yeah, it was a...
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It was a tough fight, man, and neither player was
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: able to get the upper hand over the other, and
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the refs finally were just like, all right, let's break
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: it up. It was one of those boxing matches that
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: goes to a decision, you know what I mean? The
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: refs have to decide the winner, you know what I mean?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: No knockout. But yeah, Caroline off a tough game like
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: that could be a little bit of a difficult spot
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: for them coming off a game like that. Maybe they
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: don't take Columbus as seriously here. However, Carolina was a
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: huge favorite against the Bruins. So sometimes when a huge
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: favorite doesn't have the greatest game and they have a
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: close call, sometimes they actually do refocus and play better.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: But I don't really see that being the case here.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: I think I'd rather fade Carolina here off of a
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: game that was really, really physical against the Bruins. Although
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: if you look at the box score in that game,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Carolina outplayed the Bruins by quite a bit. They were
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: clearly the better team in that game, and they are
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the better of those two teams. I think the Bruins
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: are still pretty overrated here just because of their hot
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: start to the season. They weren't expected to do much
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: of anything this year, although they're probably better than people expected,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: but they're not as good as they look right now.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Carolina is a legit team, but they're a big favorite here.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: 95% of the tickets on them, only 87% of the cash,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: minus 230 somewhere is about what the price is on this. Yeah,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I would rather have Columbus, as I was already saying,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: taking them on the puck line or something. Columbus has
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: won two games in a row. I believe we lost
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: fading them because they had beaten the Golden Knights and
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: they had Carolina on deck. So they were in a
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Stanley Cup final sandwich here between the two finals teams
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: from last year and having to play a pretty bad
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: flyer team. And the flyers came all the way back
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: and tied that game just to lose the game in
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: overtime anyway. So I think that was kind of the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: flat spot for Columbus there. they're not going to overlook Carolina.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'd rather have Columbus as the big underdog
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: in this one, plus the one and a half goals
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: or whatever there. Um, you know, I don't know what
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the price is on it.
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: Exactly.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: You could, again, do a split bet and put some portion.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, always put some portion of it on the
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: money line in hockey. I would say always put at
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: least 10% on the money line if you're playing an underdog.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: But in most of these cases, you might want to
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: put a little, a little bit more of the bet
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: on the money line. Um, Like if you're making your
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: own plus one puck line, it probably comes out that way.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: If you're going to try to push the bet, if
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: they lose by one, you probably are going to wind
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: up having to put a little bit more on it
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: than that. So, all right. A little bit more, a
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: little bit higher percentage of the bet, I mean, winds
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: up going on the money line for it. All right.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: The next game up is actually my play. It's the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: first game on the Disney Plus Hulu doubleheader. an original
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: six matchup between Chicago and Detroit. All of these two teams, uh,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: not exactly in the greatest shape right now, but this
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: is one of my best bets.
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting? Uh-huh.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Um, we're going to take the underdog in this one.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: We're going to take the Chicago Blackhawks, uh, of one
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of them, at least I think I've won on them
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: twice this year, actually. Uh, so let's keep that going. Uh,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Part of the bet on the plus one and a
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: half puck line at minus 160. Something in that range.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: The rest of it on the money line at plus 155.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to just
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: fire on the money line on this and put less
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: money on it to win more. You could do it
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that way too. But you know me. I like to
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: be a little bit more risk averse, let's say. And
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: in my case, if they lose by exactly one, this
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: bet will push. This is the breakdown here of the...
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: If you're doing it to win 100, 62, 63 of
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: it going on the money line part of it, or
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: excuse me, going on the puck line part of it,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: the minus money part of it, minus 160, that's where
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: the 62, 63 would go. Whatever that yields, like 39, 40,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: you put that amount on the money line, and then
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: if they lose by one, you'll push the bet. So
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: you can find, if you have multiple books available, you
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: can find a better number probably on each side of it.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: making these separate bets at separate books. Definitely, that is
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the best approach to get the best possible price on this.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: But you can find a book that gives you a
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: plus one puck line too. And it'll probably come out
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: to something similar to this. This one comes out to,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: what was it? Minus 102 price on this. You'll probably
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: find something kind of in that range. But as far
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: as the handicap for this, I don't like the spot
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: for Detroit, obviously. Detroit's coming off beating the Oilers, so
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: right away I'd be looking to fade Detroit after that.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: That was a huge win for them in Edmonton. They
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: pulled off a big upset against the Oilers in a shootout.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: They have had a couple of days off, but Detroit's
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: returning home from the Pacific Coast. They had a four-game
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: road trip, so they were basically on the road for
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: more than a week here. Returning home from that, you
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: know I talk about how difficult that is, returning home
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: from the road like that from a longer road trip.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: You can get a little bit distracted, and even though
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: this is an original sixth matchup, Chicago is not exactly
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: a team that's going to draw a lot of your
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: focus because they're not playing very well over the last
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: few years. So I think it's the return home distraction
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: spot where you've got to get stuff done at home,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: and that can distract you from the game, plus a
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: major letdown spot off the huge upset against Edmonton. They
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: do have a game that might... draw their focus a
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: little bit more up next against st louis um i
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: believe both these teams are in the western conference uh
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: so um so for detroit's in the east now they
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: were in the west for a while which is weird
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: but chicago and st louis i mean are both in
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the west so as far as like it being a
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: you know conference matchup whatever that's not the case for
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: either of these games but St. Louis has played better
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: than Chicago so far. So it's not really a look ahead,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: but Chicago's the easiest team in this stretch to overlook here.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: And I think that might happen here. And we're talking
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: about a Detroit team that before the Edmonton game, they
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: lost to Calgary. So this Detroit team is susceptible to
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: losing to bad teams. So I think it could definitely
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: happen here. And I think Chicago's in a much better
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: spot as they just won a game against the Kings
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: at home. And they're starting a road trip here. And
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: you know I talk about starting a road trip. Tends
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to be a focus spot. You want to get it
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: off on the right foot. And for Chicago. They ended
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: a losing streak with their last win. So it's only
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: a two game road trip by the way. But still
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: I think it still applies here. And the fact that
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they beat the Kings. It's not going to make them overconfident.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Because the Kings aren't really that good.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: And.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Chicago had lost three games in a row, so they
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: ended that losing momentum. So I like this as a
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: positive momentum spot for Chicago here. And in that three-game
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: losing stretch, they lost to Dallas, Montreal, and Florida. I mean,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: those are all good teams, so no real shame in that.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to argue that Chicago's actually good because
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: they're not, but I think they're at least competitive in
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: the right spots, and we've won on them a couple
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: times this year already, so let's do it again. I
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: like it here. This is my favorite of the hockey plays.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: It's my only hockey play. Detroit is a very public
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: side as well. 78% of tickets and cash on them.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: So we'll be fading the public by doing this. Minus
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: 180 is the price on them, which in a spot
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: like this seems a bit too high to me. I
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: don't think Detroit is really that good. Oddsmakers definitely disrespecting
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Chicago at the very least. But yeah, I don't think
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Detroit is... Detroit's a very mid-team, so I don't really
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: think they should be this heavily priced in a spot
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: like this. So, yeah, we'll take the Blackhawks there. Split bet,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: puck line, money line. This next one almost made the
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: cut for me. I think this is my second strongest
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: hockey opinion here, which is fading my Boston Bruins against St.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Louis here. Bruins coming off that really tough game against
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: the Hurricanes. Huge effort there. Like I said, it was
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: a physical game with some notable fighting going on. And
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: coming off a game like that where you play really
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: tough against the Stanley Cup final champions from last year,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: still one of the best teams in the league, this
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: looks like a flat spot to me for the Bruins
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: coming off of that. So I do not like it
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: for the Bruins here. Bruins have overperformed so far this
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: year as well. They only have Chicago next, which isn't
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: really that big of a deal. But even though it
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: is an original six matchup, St. Louis comes off two
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: straight home shutout losses. So usually you want to play
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: a team after one shutout home loss. And of course,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: they didn't turn it around in their last game. But
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: those losses were to Carolina. and to Montreal. But the
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: public's going to look at this and think, oh, the
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Bruins almost beat Carolina. In Carolina, I'm pretty sure it was.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: And St. Louis got obliterated by them at home. So
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the public's going to look at this and only play
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. Plus, the Bruins have like a 9-3 record,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: and St. Louis is below.
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: 500.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: And this is like a pick-the-winner price. So who, like
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: what public better is going to come in and actually
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: bet the Blues here? They're not going to. They're going
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: to bet the Bruins. It looks way too easy. to
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: bet the Bruins here. And the Bruins are not as
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: good as Carolina or Montreal. I'm sorry, even though the
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Bruins have a good record right now. They're my team,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: and I can tell you they're not as good as
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: those two teams. I think the Bruins and St. Louis
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: are not that far off from each other. Maybe the
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Bruins are the slightly better of these two teams. But
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: in a spot like this, the odds breakers are telling
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: you there's not much of a gap here between these
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: two teams. The Blues are actually somewhat favored around minus 115-15.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: 82% of the tickets are on the Bruins, although 92%
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, but I would not read
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: too much into that. The Bruins are definitely a public side,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: and I do not think they're the right side. I
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: like the Blues in this one. Very, very, very close
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: to making the cut for me. Maybe I'm being too
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: selective here, but yeah, this is my second favorite hockey play.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Strong opinion for me on this one. Almost makes the
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: card for me. Yeah, I like St. Louis in this one.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: All right, and I believe St. Louis still has the
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Bruins' former coach, Montgomery, who they fired, what was that,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: two years ago now? I think they still have him there, right?
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. Who knows anymore, man? Washington at
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Nashville is next. This game, Nashville is staying at home,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: coming off a loss to the Islanders. where Nashville came
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: all the way back, I think, to a race of
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: 3-0 deficit and then lost anyway. I liked the Islanders
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: in that one. That almost made the cut for me
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the other day. So that's what Nashville's coming off of.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: But they are staying at home, and Nashville is not
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: in a good spot there. They were coming off beating
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: the Avalanche, which is a huge upset win. So I
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: thought it was a flat spot for them. Nashville may
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: come out with a little bit more intensity here against
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the Capitals, who are a good team, and that's starting
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: to show here. So capitals are not going to be
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: a team that teams are going to overlook. Uh, the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: capitals have won two games in a row, but they
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, uh, beating the flyer. So the caps, I
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: believe are the, they're the only team playing today. That's
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: on a back to back. I'm pretty sure. So definitely
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind. They don't really have like, um,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: and their primary goalie, I guess is Thompson. Cause he's
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: played more. Uh, they'll switch to Lindgren in this one,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: but it's not really that much of a downgrade. Um,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: So it'll be Lindgren in this one. I don't think
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: that matters that much as far as Washington. But I
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: still like Nashville in this one. Washington on a back-to-back,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: although they did have a couple of days off before yesterday,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: but they easily beat Philadelphia yesterday in what I thought
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of a questionable spot for Washington.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: And Washington has Minnesota, Dallas, Florida all upcoming next. So
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: they may overlook this Nashville team. And it's one of
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: these weird spots where you have to take... It's a
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: single game... Road trip. Those are always really weird because
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: it entirely depends on are you going to be focused
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: on this game or not? And I think that how
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: much focus you have on this game, I think gets
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: kind of magnified in a game like this. And my
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: guess is that they will not be that focused on
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: this game. So I would prefer Nashville in this one. Washington.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: 53% of the tickets, so not really that public. 57%
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. It's basically a pick-em price, though.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: To me, it seems like the public would wind up
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: leaning towards Washington in this one. I'm not saying that
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: you should blindly fade the public everywhere, but I think
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: more often than not, you should be fading them. In
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: a way, it kind of looks a little bit too
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: easy to play Washington here, given what these teams' records are. Yeah,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: I lean Nashville on that one. All right, Montreal at
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Dallas is the next game. This is one of the
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: better games on the board. These are two pretty good
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: teams here. Dallas is a fairly significant favorite here, though,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: so the odds maker is still telling you Dallas is
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the better team here. Montreal is on a three-game win streak,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: but none of these teams that they beat are as
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: good as Dallas. They beat Chicago, Winnipeg, St.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Louis.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Not that impressive, but Montreal does have a chance to
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: sweep the whole road trip here. They've already won the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: road trip, though. and Dallas will be the most difficult
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: opponent they face on the road trip. They're not going
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: to overlook Dallas, but Dallas is also sitting at home
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: coming off a real ugly loss, 5-1 to the Devils
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: the other day, so that did end a winning streak
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: for Dallas, so they'd won, I think, five games in
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a row or something prior to that, so sometimes when
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: you lose a win streak like that, it will hang
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: you over into the next game, so that would be
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: kind of the concern with Dallas here, but I think
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: it kind of does set up as a bounce back
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: for them because that loss to the Devils is real ugly.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: They're staying at home, Montreal, finishing a road trip, which
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: can be a bit difficult, especially when you're having to
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: step up in class. So I probably prefer Dallas in
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: this one. Dallas is about minus 160. They're a public side,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: 78% of the tickets, but 90% of the cash. So
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: it looks like maybe the money is actually siding with
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Dallas in that one. That one would be a game
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: where you play Dallas to win in regulation, I guess,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: or do what I did yesterday and do the split
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: bet minus one and a half on puck line for
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: part of the bet and money line for the other
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: part of the bet. Or you could just play them
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: on the money line too, although it is pretty juicy.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: But Dallas, they tend to play some lower scoring games
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: than most teams, so that makes it a little bit
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: more difficult to play them as a favorite in general
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: because it's less likely they're going to cover a spread
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: like that. It's a little bit less likely they're going
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: to win in regulation as well, all that type of stuff.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, Dallas to win in regulation might
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: be my recommendation on that one. Islanders, that Minnesota. Minnesota's
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: definitely going to be a big favorite here. Minnesota's coming off... Well,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: they're returning home from a road trip, so right away
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: you've got to... take, you know, take notice of that
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: and know that that is a negative spot. Uh, they're
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: on the road, uh, since Tuesday, October 20th, they played
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: a really, really packed schedule too, uh, during that road trip.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: So right now they're going to be playing a fourth
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: game over the course of five days. It looks like
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: it's a fifth game, uh, in, is that a fifth game?
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: It's a fifth game in eight days is what that is.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: It's a fourth game in six days, fifth game in
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: eight days and a, uh, Six games in ten days
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: is what that is. So they've played a really packed
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: schedule here. Plus the return home spot can be a
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: distraction as I talk about. So that's going to be
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: difficult for them. They've got to get back to home life.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe they don't fully pay attention to a mediocre at
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: best Islanders team. And they've got Washington on deck. They
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: have to go back right out on the road and
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: play Washington next. So it's one of these weird spots
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: where you have a single home game sandwiched in between
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: two road trips. That's typically a pretty negative spot. So
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be leaning towards the Islanders in this one. Also,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: Minnesota did get a nice divisional win in their last
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: game against Utah, so possible letdown there as well. You
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: could argue this is a sandwich spot as well, and
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the Islanders are coming off beating the Predators, but that
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: was a game they probably should have won more easily
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: when they were up 3-0 in the game. If you
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: look at the stats in this game, I mean, the
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Islanders won every statistic pretty much in the game, so
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: not by a lot, but they were the better team
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: in the game for sure. Continuing a road trip here.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: A road trip. They split 1-1 so far. Yeah, I
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: like the Islanders in this one. This is one of
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: my stronger opinions for sure. Minnesota, 92% of the tickets
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: on them. Only 76% of the cash. They're in the
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: minus 190s here. So you can get the Islanders on
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: the puck line. Or I guess you'd still have to
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: do a split bet puck line, money line on this.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Grabbing them as the underdog. But I think that is
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the right way to play this. Is to take the
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Islanders down. in what looks like a really difficult spot
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: for Minnesota, actually. This is close to making the cut
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: for me, too. Obviously, I have my one play here,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: which I think is the strongest on the Blackhawks, but
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: next strongest would be St. Louis for me, and then
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Islanders would be next up after this. Maybe I'm being
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: too selective, but yeah, I don't know, man. Some of
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: it kind of goes down to my feel, my intuition,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out how strong I actually feel about
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: these games. But yeah, I definitely like the Islanders in
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: that one. Hulu doubleheader finishes with Buffalo and Anaheim here.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Buffalo playing West Coast late night. You got to be
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: aware of that. But the thing for Buffalo is they're
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: already out there. They just beat the Sharks in San Jose.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: So Buffalo is now already adjusted to this time zone.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: So that won't be that much of an issue for
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: them here. So it sets up okay for Buffalo here,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: even though they did just shut out San Jose. I
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: don't think it's that bad of a spot for Buffalo here.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: As far as Anaheim is concerned, they're staying at home,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: I think, so they don't have to worry about times
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: or shifts either. They're coming off an embarrassing loss to Vancouver,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: and that was a return home spot for them. Vancouver
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: may be the worst team in hockey, and losing to
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: them is real ugly, man, even though it was a
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: close game. But still, you can't lose to Vancouver. But
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I think the reason for that was... Anaheim was returning
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. And I talk about over
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: and over again how difficult of a spot that is.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: You return home from the road. It could be a
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: distraction spot. You might not play well. That was the
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: case with Anaheim. Anaheim not playing well in general recently,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: but I do think this sets up as a bounce
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: back for them because when you return home and you
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: get distracted by having to do stuff back at home,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: you don't play well, it tends to be a bounce
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: back spot in the next game and you do play
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: better typically in the next game. I think that is
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen with Anaheim here. So I would
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: prefer Anaheim in this one actually. So yeah, I do
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: like Anaheim here. Buffalo, 56% of the tickets on them,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: 78% of the cash on Anaheim. So the money is
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: agreeing with me on Anaheim. Anaheim getting a lot of
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: disrespect in the market right now. Buffalo about a minus
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: 130-something road favorite here against an Anaheim team that made
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: the playoffs last year and beat Edmonton in the playoffs
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: last year. I mean, I know teams can vary quite
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: a bit in hockey from year to year, but... I
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: don't know if Buffalo deserves to be favored like this
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: on the road against an Anaheim team, and I'm not
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: convinced it's that bad. I still think this Anaheim team
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: is at least decent. And Buffalo was an overrated team
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: last year. Yeah, I prefer Anaheim in that one. Ottawa
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: at LA. Ottawa also does not have to adjust to
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the Pacific time zone because they're already out there. They
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: just lost to Vegas, so they're staying in the Pacific
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: time zone here. lost in Vegas. I guess you could
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: argue it's a potential bounce back for them here. And
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: in fact, it's actually LA that has to adjust to
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: the time zones. This is a pretty negative spot for
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: LA here. LA is returning home from a road trip
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: that they started on Tuesday the 20th. They went all
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: the way to the East Coast and they finished up
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the road trip in the central time zone in Chicago.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: But still, they have to adjust two time zones west
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: again and play a late night game like this where
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: their biological clock is going to be used to The
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Eastern time zone and the Central time zone, that's not good.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: They're going to be playing until midnight right now, the
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: time that they're adjusted to. So this is definitely a
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: negative spot for LA for multiple reasons. For the time
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: zone change that they have to make and because they're
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: returning home from the road, it could be a difficult
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: spot for that reason because they have to return home
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. The only thing is, Ottawa's not
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: really a team you're really going to overlook. And it
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: was a bad end to the road trip for LA.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: The loss to Chicago, that's not a good loss. But
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: I tend to kind of throw that out a little bit.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: I think when you return home from the road, even
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: if your road trip was bad, you actually don't tend
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: to bounce back right away in the return home spot
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: because the distractions are just so significant when you have
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: to return home. So I like Ottawa in this one.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Ottawa does not have to adjust to the time zone.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Both teams come off losses here. Granted, Ottawa's just a
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: much better team. I think the only way to play
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: this game is to play Ottawa. LA, it's about a
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: pick-em price here, basically. Or somewhere around minus 110. 67%
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on Ottawa. 82% of the cash on Ottawa.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: So the money seems to be agreeing with me on
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: that one too. Definitely don't hate this one. So reasonably
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: strong opinion for me on Ottawa here as well. I
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: know I'm being very, very selective. I think that's probably
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: my fourth strongest hockey opinion here. And then the last
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: game is not one that I feel that strongly about.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Vancouver at San Jose. Vancouver... Ended a long, long losing streak.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: They hadn't won since... They won two of their first
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: three games, and then they lost every game after that
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: up until they just beat the Ducks, which I just mentioned.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: They caught the Ducks in a good spot, though. Ducks
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip, so Vancouver caught them
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: at the right time. Pulled off a big upset. Now,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: it could go... one of two ways here. Vancouver just
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: ended a long losing streak. And when you do that,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of times your momentum continues and you have
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: positive momentum moving forward. And they're not going to overlook
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the sharks, but they still could be in a letdown
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: spot because that was an upset of the ducks and
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: the sharks, I believe are coming off getting shut out
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: at home. If I'm not mistaken. Um, yeah, they got
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: shut out by a Buffalo that was in a return
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: home spot for, uh, for, for San Jose though. So Buffalo, yeah,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Buffalo got a nice win. That's another, um, indicator against
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Buffalo in their game against Anaheim by the way because
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: that Buffalo win shutout win over San Jose is not
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: as good as maybe it looks because San Jose was
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: in a really bad spot returning home from a road
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: trip they're returning all the way from the east coast
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: they had to adjust all the way back to the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Pacific time zone that was a really difficult spot for
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: San Jose and they obviously lost the game but now
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: that they're readjusted to the time zone they're This looks
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: like a bounce-back spot to me for San Jose after
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: getting shut out at home in what we know is
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: a bad spot in the return home spot. Like I said,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: when that happens in a spot like that, teams tend
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. Teams also tend to bounce back after
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: they get shut out at home. So I like San
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Jose in this one. This one, the money does not
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: agree with it. San Jose, 92% of the tickets, they're
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: very public. 79% of the cash on them. So the money...
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Kind of indicating the other way, San Jose is down
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: from minus 195 to about minus 170-something. So there's been
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: significant money on Vancouver, which does worry me about this.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: But I would prefer to have San Jose in this game.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: And you could take them to win in regulation, you know,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: minus one puck line, whatever. But I'm not recommending that
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: as a play. I'm just, you know, I give out
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: an opinion on every single game. And that would be
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: my opinion on this game. But that one's not one
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: of the stronger ones I have.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go hydration break, and then we've got
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: all the rest of the sports to talk about here.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: But very few games in each of the other ones.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: So NBA will be up next, and then WNBA, college football,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: and then NFL. But the hockey segment might take more
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: than half the show because that was 12 games I
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: just went through. Be right back.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: We'll be right back. Thank you.
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: Thank you.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: All right, NBA up next here. We have Cleveland and
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Atlanta on NBA TV. These games are all late pretty much.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: The first couple games are at 8 p.m. Eastern. Cleveland
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: played yesterday. I think both of these teams actually played yesterday.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Cleveland beat the Wizards by double digits yesterday. Now they
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: go out on the road, usually a focused spot when
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: you start a road trip, but Cleveland's look good, three
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: wins in a row. Atlanta did not look particularly good yesterday.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: They lost to the winless Miami Heat. I believe the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Heat were winless. But I gave out an opinion leaning
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: towards the Heat on the show yesterday in that game.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: So my read on the NBA has been pretty strong.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: And the Heat did get that win there. That was
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: kind of an ugly loss for Atlanta. A home loss
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. Staying at home here. I think I'd
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: prefer to have Atlanta win. Here, coming off an ugly loss,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: whereas Cleveland's coming off a decent win, which I think
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: was in DeBonsa's debut. So there was a little bit
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: of hype around that game for Washington. But typically when
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: you have a team that won by double digits and
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: a team that lost by double digits, I'm going to
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: be leaning towards the team that lost by double digits
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: to have a better performance in the next one. That
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: is the way I will lean here. I'll lean Atlanta
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: in this one. And Atlanta is actually a one, one
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. So the public's going to
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: look at this. You know, they're only going to play
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Cleveland here. Like how can you get Cleveland? What are they?
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Three and one and Atlanta's two and three. And Cleveland
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: is getting like a point or two here. It looks
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: way too easy to play Cleveland, right? Oh my God.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: The team with the better record is actually an underdog here.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: That's so much value. No, nope. The odds makers are
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: not just handing you money here. I would prefer Atlanta
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: on this one. Cleveland has 58% of the tickets on them. Atlanta,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: 51% of the money on them, so the money seems
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: to agree with the Hawks here. I also agree with that.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: I would play the Hawks if I was going to
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: play that one. um Sacramento and New Orleans, oh, man,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: this is an ugly one. Sacramento, they may be the
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: worst team that I've seen maybe in my entire life.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is insane, and I'm a Celtics fan,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: and I saw some of those Celtics, you know, 90s
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: and 2000s teams that were abysmal. This Sacramento team, this
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: is something else, man. They are so bad that they're
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: like a six-point underdog against another winless team, New Orleans here.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: And the public is not going to lay points in
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: a game like this. They're not going to lay six
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: points with a team that has no wins. You know
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Even if they're against another winless team,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: the public's going to look at this and think, how
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: could you possibly lay that many points with a team
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: that can't even win? You know what I mean? So
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I think the public is actually going to lean against
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: the favorite here. So that might be an indicator that
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: maybe you should actually lay the points with the favorite
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: here in New Orleans. The Sacramento team.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: They're really bad. The question is how bad. They've lost
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: all four games. They were close in one of them
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: against the Trailblazers at home, but other than that, they've
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: been bad. They're two road games they got blown out,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: so I have no reason to really want to play
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Sacramento here, even though I know I usually like to
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: play on teams that have looked really ugly. New Orleans
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: played yesterday and lost the Nuggets. That was a win
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I gave out on the show. I thought it was
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: a nice zigzag spot, but New Orleans... Their resume looks
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: better than the Kings, and obviously the odds are telling
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: you New Orleans is better than the Kings. because they're
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: a big favorite here. New Orleans almost beat the Jazz
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: going out to high elevation there, and they almost beat
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets in high elevation too, and they played a
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: close game against the Pacers too, so the only game
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: New Orleans played that wasn't close was last night's game
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: against Denver, which I thought was a refocused spot for Denver,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: a nice zigzag spot for them, if you will, where
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: you're going to get a better team in a focused spot,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: so that was the play yesterday. This could be a
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: bounce back now for New Orleans. Staying at home, a
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: bad loss. Well, not a bad loss because Denver's good,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: but kind of an ugly-looking loss. The only thing is
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: I believe Sacramento did not play yesterday, so I believe
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: Sacramento is coming into this game with more rest. Let
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: me make sure of that. Yeah, they haven't played since Tuesday.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: They lost by quite a bit at San Antonio. Now
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: they're traveling to New Orleans, not really that bad, but
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I'd still prefer to lay the points with New Orleans here.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, we just don't know how bad this Sacramento
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: team really is. This New Orleans team has looked competitive,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: at least. Sacramento has been abysmal. Seriously, we don't even
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: know how bad this team really is. They could be...
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Real bad. We'll see. But 54% of the tickets are
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: on Sacramento. 91% of the cash on New Orleans. And again,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: it is really telling that you have New Orleans installed
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: as like a 6, 5.5 point favorite here, even though
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: they don't even have a win yet. Oddsmakers are telling
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: you that they're the better team here by multiple points. Like,
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: how much does New Orleans get for home court? Like,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: one at most?
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: So.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: Osweggers are telling you New Orleans would be like a
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: five-point favorite or four-and-a-half-point favorite on a neutral against this
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: awful Kings team. So, yeah, I like New Orleans in
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: this one despite the fact that they're on the back-to-back.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: If New Orleans wasn't on the back-to-back, they'd be more
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: heavily favored than this. They'd probably be like a seven-and-a-half-point
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: favorite here if New Orleans was not on a back-to-back.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: So that's... how bad the oddsmakers think the Kings are. Yeah,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards laying the points here. I
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: don't love it on the back-to-back off kind of a
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: tough game against Denver, but that would be my lean there.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: And then Memphis at Portland. Memphis remains undefeated at 4-0.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: They beat the Jazz in their last game, which I
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: think was two days ago. Three days ago, my mistake.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: They're finishing a road trip here, going back out to
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast for this, but easier to do that
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: going from mountain time. You only have to move over
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: one time zone, and They were just out on the
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast. But this Portland team, this is going to
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: be the best team Memphis has played so far. I mean,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Memphis has played the aforementioned Sacramento Kings. They played Golden
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: State and then Utah twice. So Golden State, probably the
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: best of those three teams. But I think Portland right
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: now is better than all of those teams, given how
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: wounded and old Golden State is. Although Lindenborg is starting
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: to look pretty good. We do have to acknowledge that.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: He's the young guy there in Golden State, so... The rookie.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: This Portland team, though, they're looking like they might be
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: taking the next step forward, and the oddsmakers have been
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: lining them that way. They're getting a lot of respect
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: from the oddsmakers. Portland is also undefeated. Problem I would
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: have with Portland is they just had a big win
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: over the Lakers. I mean, I know the Lakers may
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: be kind of a... mediocre team right now, but that's
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: still a big win when you go into LA and
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: you beat the LA Lakers, you beat Luca, huge win
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: for Portland there, even though they're only like a two
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: point underdog. And I liked Portland in that game on
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: the show. That was a lean I had on the,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: on the show. So I think it looks like more
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot for Portland here. They're returning home
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: from a quick road trip where they went, they stayed
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: on the Pacific coast though. Only Friday, Tuesday road trips.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's that big of a deal. And Memphis,
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: because they're undefeated, you're not really going to overlook them,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: but I still think the main component of this is
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: just this could be a letdown for Portland still off
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: that big game against LA. That is a big win. Portland,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: by the way, they've also beaten Sacramento, so both teams have.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Portland also beat Phoenix, but I think I almost want
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: to say Phoenix and L.A. might, Phoenix, yeah, and the
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Lakers might both be better than all the opponents Memphis
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: has played so far. I don't know, Phoenix, I mean,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: I still don't think Phoenix is that bad, so I
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: don't know, maybe I'm a little bit off on that,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: but Portland has faced a more difficult schedule, at least,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: than Memphis has, but even so, I would prefer Memphis
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: in this game. They look like they're public, though, 75%
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, 80% of the cash on them. Portland
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: is 7.5 point favorite here. But Memphis does kind of
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: look like they're turning into a public underdog, which I
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: really don't like, and that is definitely a red flag,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: although I am still kind of leaning Memphis here because
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: I think it is a Portland letdown spot. But the oddsmakers,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: like I said, they're really respecting Portland. The fact that
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: they're a 7.5-point favorite against another undefeated team, that plus
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you Memphis isn't as good as
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: their record looks, obviously I agree with that. This Memphis
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: team is like, They're probably a team that's going to
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: be somewhere around the play-ins to get into the playoffs.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: That's the caliber of team Memphis really is here. They
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: just had an easy schedule to start the season. That's
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: part of this too. A lot of those things usually
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: would make me want a team like Portland in a
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: game like this. Because they just beat LA, I don't
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: want them. I'd rather have Memphis here plus the points.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: That's not going to be a play for me. Out
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: of all the NBA games, I think the Hawks are
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: probably actually the strongest lean there for me. And it's
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: really just zigzagging what we saw yesterday from those two teams.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: All right, WNBA, I'm going to give it a play
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: in this one and help us all, man. Help us all. Yeah,
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: we have to get back on the right track. WNBA
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: was good last year. This year it was decent for
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: most of the year. We took a couple of bullshit losses,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: and now I think we've lost three in a row
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: or something. We've got to get back on track here.
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to zigzag this, and we're going to
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: take the Atlanta Dream minus the 4.5 here, even though
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: I don't love laying points with a team that's in
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: desperation mode because they are facing elimination here. Golden State's
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: up 3-2 and a best of 7 here, but I
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: think there are some regression points that point towards Atlanta.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: Atlanta was this heavy of a favorite in their other
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: two home games in the series, so the line is
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: not really over-adjusted here. The first game, I think they
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: did open 2.5, but the professional money pushed that number
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: all the way to 4.5 in that game, and I
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: think we might have lost on that one too. I
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: can't remember. And then in the next game, I think Atlanta,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the last time they were at home, they were 5.5,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: so this number is not too high. So I think
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: we can lay the number here. Even though we do
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: get a low total here, it's the lowest that we've
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: seen in the entire series, 147.5, and I think even
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: though I've said it multiple times in this series, and
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: every game besides one of them has gone under 147,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: The total is just clearly over-adjusted at this point. The
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: series started out with totals being in the 150s, like
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: almost mid-150s, and now we're looking at 147.5. And I
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: know these teams are both really good on defense. Both
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: teams have shot terribly throughout the series, so we've seen
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: a ton of unders. But I would only be on
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: the over in this game if I was going to
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: play the total. I think it's been way over-adjusted. There's
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: no way you're getting any value on the under here.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Even if you think that it is a game that
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: should be lower scoring because both teams should focus on defense,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: there's no value in playing it under this obviously over-adjusted
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: or under-adjusted total, depending on how you look at it.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: This is the lowest total we've seen in the series
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: so far. So if you're going to play the total,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I would only play it over. And even though I've
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: been wrong about that for the most part throughout the series, again...
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: out of the five games, four of them gone under
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: the total. So far, the shooting has been pathetic throughout
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: the series. Maybe the defenses are just that good, or
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: maybe the WNBA just sucks that bad. And the, and
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: the shooting is just that bad. Um, But again, we
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: did have a bad shooting game last time. Golden State
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: won in Golden State in Game 5. Both teams shot terribly.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: But the reason that I want Atlanta here is they
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: shot like... This was even worse than terrible. They shot
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: 29% from the field. That's not going to happen again, okay?
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Even when these teams are shooting poorly, they're shooting like
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: 30-something percent typically. So I think this is a big
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: regression point for Atlanta here. The fact they shot so
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: unbelievably badly this is like historically bad even for the
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: WNBA I think it was one of the worst shooting
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: percentages from a team in like WNBA playoff history so
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: I think Atlanta is going to bounce back and do
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: better here another option that you do have here if
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: you don't want to lay the points here Atlanta's team
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: total over makes a lot of sense I think, in
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: this game as well because I do think the game
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: is going to go over that very reduced total here.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: And the biggest regression point is for Atlanta to bounce
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: back here. Now they're going to be back at home.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: So I think Atlanta will score more points here, and
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: that would be one thing that you could look at
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: here as well. They only scored 55 in the last game,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: which is, I believe, by far the least that they've
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: scored in this entire series. But that's why I like
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Atlanta to cover in this one because Atlanta, They're the
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: biggest regression point here, and the other thing about this
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: game was Atlanta was horrific in the turnover department. They
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: won the rebound battle by double digits, so that's a
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: good sign that Atlanta was dominant, even on the road,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: on the interior in that game. That kind of shows
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: that they actually should have done much better in this
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: game than what the scoreboard shows. It's just they had
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: a ton of turnovers, and they couldn't hit any shots,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: so I think those things can both regress here, or
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: progress back to some sort of mean. I think Atlanta...
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Won't turn it over as much here, or maybe Golden
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: State will turn it over more because they had very
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: few turnovers in that game. So a lot of things
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: went Golden State's way in that one. The Oswegers have
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: been telling you throughout the series that Atlanta's the better team,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: and I don't want it to happen because I don't
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: like Angel Reese. I'm rooting for Golden State here, but
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: this is back in Atlanta. This game is at noon today,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: or 1230, and that's because of the scheduling conflicts because
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Atlanta plays in State Farm Arena, which I believe that's
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: also where the Hawks play, I want to say. It
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: probably is, right? But whatever it is, they've had a
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: bunch of scheduling conflicts because I guess the people that
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: do the scheduling for that arena assumed that Atlanta was
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: not going to make the final, and they just scheduled
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: all these other events during these nights, and now they
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: have to figure out how to accommodate Atlanta. It seemed like...
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: Atlanta was going to have to play in a different arena,
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: but they're not going to have to. All of their
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: home games, this is going to be their last home
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: game in the series, all their home games are going
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: to actually wind up being played in their own arena,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: so including this one. But for this one, they had
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: to make it not a night game. That's why the
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: game's at 1230. I'm pretty sure it was because of
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: a bunch of scheduling conflicts. But I think that's going
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: to help the home team, even though people complain about it. Oh,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: but we can't go to the game now because it's
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: a weekday and we have to work and whatever. Okay, well,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: do you think Golden State is going to have a
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: bunch of fans there? I don't think so. I think
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: this weird scheduling spot, like the weird start time, I think,
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: if anything, probably helps Atlanta because Golden State's more used
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: to being on Pacific time, even though both teams are
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: just out there in Pacific time. So they both have
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: to adjust to this. But Atlanta... This is their home arena,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: so I think the adjustment will be easier for them
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: to do it here and play in earlier games. So
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I think that will help them as well here. And
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: the other thing that helps this out, even though lane
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: points in a series where these teams cannot shoot at all,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: and it's been hideous, lane points doesn't seem like a
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: good idea, but it's still a basketball game where a
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: lot of points get scored compared to other sports. And
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: every game except game one in this series, the winner
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: has won by more than this margin.
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: So.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: It's not asking that much to win by 4.5 here.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: The only game where it didn't happen was Golden State,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: one game, won by 4. Atlanta, the two games that
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: they won, they won by 14 and 26. So Atlanta,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: when they won, they covered this number easily. And one
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: of those games was at home, one was on the road.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: The other game they lost at home, they only lost
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: by 5. So they've obviously been better at home in
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: this series than they have been on the road. And
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: then they lost by nine in the last game on
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: the road at Golden State. And Golden State won the
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: other game that Golden State won was only by four,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: like I said. But that was the only game one
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: was not decided by a margin greater than this. So, yeah,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I say we do it. I think the money is
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: actually coming in this way because it looks like Atlanta
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: opened three and a half in this one, or four,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: and it moved up a little bit to four and
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: a half. I would, yeah, find the number, man, because
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: the number's going to keep going up, I think. I
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: think the actual money is actually probably on the Atlanta
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: side here. That's what we're going to do. We've got
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: to get back on the winning side with the WNBA, man.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: It's pissing me off big time. We've got to do it.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: If I'm going to continue handicapping WNBA, we had a
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: good season last year. Again, regular season this year, I
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: think at least five times we got absolutely screwed with
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: some of these WNBA plays. The playoffs haven't been good,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: but I've been very selective with it. I think we're
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: 0-2 in the playoffs on this show, so that's how
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: selective I've been. And selecting the wrong things, obviously. But yeah,
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: let's get it, man. Come on, we'll get this one right. Alright,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: then we have college football. Two games tonight. One is
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: in the American Conference. These games are both at 7.30.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: The American game is on ESPN and ESPN. There's a
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: reason why it's on ESPN, and I think that's because
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: look at the total in this game between FAU and
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: North Texas. The total is like 77 in this game.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: That is unbelievable. It's one of the higher totals you'll
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: ever see in college football, and it's probably that high
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: for a reason. Like I always say, when it's high,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: it's high for a reason. Yeah, I expect this game
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: to be a ridiculous shootout. And if you're going to
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: play the total in this game, I think I would
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: only play it over, even though it seems insane because
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: the total is so high. But there are definitely reasons
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: for it. Florida Atlantic, look at what they did in
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: their last game. Both these teams, I think, played on
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Saturday night. Florida Atlantic won 51-49 in their last game
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: against Rice. And Rice, a team with no offense. Rice,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: they run a triple option and they're not even good
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: at it. They run like a modified triple option because
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: they don't have any offensive talent, basically. And they're worse
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: at it than the service academies and whatever. Rice, that team,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: put up 600 yards of offense in that game against FAU. That's...
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Completely insane. And FAU themselves, I think, only put up
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: about 450 or something like that. So FAU actually got
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: outgained in that game. That Rice team, they probably only
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: get about 300 yards of offense a game at most, maybe.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: And they put up 600 against this FAU defense. Yeah,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: this defense is real bad. And I think the public
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: is probably going to put some weight into FAU scoring
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: 51 points in that game. And they go, oh, yeah.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: you know, FAU looks pretty good there. Cause they won,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: they won, you know, with a 51 point score North
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Texas though, they put up 49 in their last game
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: against Navy. And so they faced a triple option doing Navy, uh,
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: put up 39 against them. So Navy's offense was not, uh,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: was not silenced in that game to say the least. Yeah, man.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know both teams are coming off higher
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: scoring games, but I think the better way to play
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: this game is to just play the over. Um, As
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: far as the side, I mean, it's a little bit
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: difficult to figure out the side, actually. I mean, North
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: Texas won. I think they were a small road favorite, actually,
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: against Navy. But I guess for the side, FAU, I
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: think they were a big favorite against Rice, and they
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: almost lost. So I guess for the side, I would
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: lean to FAU here just because that was a horrible
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: game for FAU against a bad Rice team. When teams
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: are a big favorite and they do really poorly, I
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: think a lot of times they refocus and bounce back
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: after that. So I would apply to FAU here, so
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: I guess that's the way I would lean if I
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: was going to look at the side here. It looks
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: like the money agrees with that. North Texas has 80%
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, 66% of the cash on FAU.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: North Texas is a 14-point favorite here, but of course
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: when the total is massive, it makes it way easier
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: to win by two touchdowns. You can see them win
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: this game, you know. It could be like 62-45 or
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: something like that, you know what I mean? But I
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: think if I was going to play this game, I'd
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: actually probably prefer the over, although you've lost some... value
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: on it. It's gone up from 73 and a half
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: all the way to 77 and a half. I mean,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: at some point there's gotta be some buyback, right? At
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: some point that number is going to get too high, uh,
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: you know, for the professional bettors to even want it.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man. I wouldn't, yeah, I mean,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'd really want to chase the steam
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: there because you've lost four points of value, although four
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: points is worth less when you have a total this high, though.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: But there's no way I'd want to be on an
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: under in that game. I think this game is going
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: to be an absolute shootout. Both defenses are trash. Both
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: offenses could definitely do damage. North Texas, they've always been
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: a good passing attack over the, well, not always, but
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: the recent years have been a good passing attack um,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: type of offense. So yeah, I mean that those are, uh,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: my opinions on that game. That game looks like it's
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: going to be insane. Uh, so if you like, if
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: you like offensive shootouts, that's probably the game you want
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: to watch. Um, and then, uh, the other game is
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Troy and James Madison, which, um, fundamentally is probably the
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: better game here. I mean, these are teams that actually
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: can play defense a little bit. Uh, the totals almost,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: the totals like almost half of what it is in
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: the other game. Uh, not, not quite, but it's in
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: the forties. Um, This game's on ESPN2 at the same time.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: James Madison, I worry about their spot here because they
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: were rolling. They were 7-0 and then they lost to
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: App State in the middle of the week last week.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: And if you saw that game, it was crazy. The
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: game went into overtime and App State wound up pulling
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: off the big upset. So I could see this going
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: one of two ways here for JMU here. Number one,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: it could be that because they just lost their first
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: game of the season so deep into the season, that
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: can result in a hangover. Like when you're not used
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: to losing and you take a loss this late into
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: the season, that could be a problem. So this could
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: be a hangover for JMU here. However, and this game
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: is in the Sun Belt Conference, by the way. However,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: JMU was a big favorite in that game. They came
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: back and could have won the game. They tied it
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: late and then they wound up losing in overtime. I
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: think they either turned it over or had a field
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: goal blocked in overtime or something like that and wound
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: up losing in that fashion. But when you're a big
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: favorite like JMU was and you lose, a lot of
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: times you do bounce back from that. However, I'm more
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: inclined to say this is a bad spot for JMU. Like,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: taking their first loss of the season, that could definitely
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: hang them over here. And this is a JMU team.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Their goal was to make the playoff again, you know
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: what I mean? And I think they still could.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: They definitely cannot lose again. If they win the Sun
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: Belt with one loss, I don't know, man, because that
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: upstate loss is pretty bad. So I don't know. We
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: have to figure out, is that the dream crusher? That's
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying, because the dream crusher is the thing.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: When your goal on the season gets dashed and you
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: no longer have it, that can hang you over. The
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: question is, does that apply to JMU here? Are they
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: actually definitely out of the playoff picture? I don't know,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: because one of these teams from these smaller conferences has
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: to get into the playoff. Last year, two of them did.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: So I think JMU, they still might be able to
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: do it as a one-loss team. So I don't know
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: if the dream crusher applies, but I still think the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: hangover does apply here after taking their first loss of
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: the season. And JMU has not really played that difficult
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: of a schedule. Their most difficult game was against Liberty
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: in the first game of the season. Well, you could
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: argue it was the road game against San Diego State,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: but San Diego State was... dealing with that mumps outbreak
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: and whatever. So that was really bizarre. I wouldn't put
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: that much weight into that. So other than that, this
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: has not been a difficult schedule at all for JMU.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: Troy is sitting at 3-4 here. Troy is facing a
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: more difficult schedule just in that they had to play Missouri,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: and they actually played pretty well on the road at Missouri.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: And then they had to go into high elevation to
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: Utah State. I gave out Utah State as a play
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: on the show in that one because I thought Troy
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: coming off that Missouri performance, they played really well, having
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: to then go into elevation. And Utah State, I think,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: was coming off some sort of loss or something. That
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: spot was all about Utah State there. Troy hasn't had
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: the easiest schedule here, really. But now we look at
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: what Troy's doing. They're coming off their worst game of
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: the season. They're coming off losing to UL Monroe, who
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: did not have a win yet. UL Monroe is one
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: of the worst teams in FBS football. They're a horrendous team. Troy,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: I think, was probably a two-touchdown favorite in that game
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: and lost the game outright. Yeah, I think this is
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: a bounce-back spot for Troy. I think Troy might have
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: been looking ahead to James Madison here because they knew
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: they had this game upcoming, and you know they're going
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: to have the JMU game circled just because that is
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: what it is. Now, in this game, Troy also should
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: have won this game, probably. I mean, they didn't do well,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: but they were.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: You know, UL Monroe scored all the... They scored three
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: straight times in the fourth quarter to win the game,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. Troy, yeah, they didn't play well. They
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: had almost no offense in the game. Troy is a
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: better defense than offense. But still, coming off an ugly,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: ugly loss like that is a big favorite. Troy has
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: got to be the right side here, man. As far
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: as the two games here, Troy... Troy is the best
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: play out of these two college football games, I would
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: have to say, given the spot that each of these
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: teams is in. JMU is getting the money, which I
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: don't understand. 69% of the tickets on them. Them being
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: public makes sense. 93% of the cash on them. I'm
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: not really buying that.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: They did initially drop from a 20-point favorite down to 19.5, 19, 18.5
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: at some spots. As long as it's 17.5 or above.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: You're not missing any key number here because this number
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: was never really a 21 or anything. So I would
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: take the points with Troy. And like I said, it's
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: a low total here too. 50.5 basically. It's gone up. Actually,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: it's gone down, excuse me, slightly here. But the lower
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: the total, the better it is to take a huge underdog, right?
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Because the points are more at a premium. Troy... They
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: have a good enough defense, I think, to keep them
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: in this game. And given what the spot looks like, yeah,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: I think Troy is definitely the right side in this one,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: plus the points. So that's what I would do in
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: that game. Doesn't make the cut for me. That is
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: the strongest college football opinion I have out of those
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: two games there. Which then brings us to the NFL here.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: And I do have a play in the NFL, and
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: you know what this is going to be. Nobody's going
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: to like this one. As I usually say, you know
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: what happens when it's one of my plays.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you do know what we're doing here. We're going
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: to take the Carolina Panthers plus three and a half
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: against Green Bay here. And I know... The home team
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: tends to have an edge. By the way, I forgot
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: to mention, in college football, as I always mention, the
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: home teams do tend to have an edge in these
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: isolated midweek games like this. But James Madison plays so
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: many of them. I think their home advantage is going
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit less there. But typically, the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: home teams have a bit of an edge in those
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: college football games. On these primetime games, the crowd just
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: shows up more intensely for it. And the team does
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: as well, you know, because they want to look good
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: on a big stage, especially when they're at home.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: That's that, but as I was about to say, Thursday night,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround time. The home team usually has an advantage,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: especially when the teams are kind of unfamiliar with each other,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: as is the case here, but in this case, I
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: don't think so. I like Carolina here, and this is
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: a board this week that I don't really like in
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: the NFL, but I like this one, although Green Bay's
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: got 64% of tickets and 80% of the cash right now,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: but the real money seems like it has come in
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: on Carolina, because it's open 4.5, and it's down to 3.5-4 now, so.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: I think some money has definitely come in towards Carolina here.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be coming in towards the under
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit here. It's in the mid to high 40s,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: which is not really a low total. It can't really
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: be that low with Carolina because their defense is bad.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: But one thing I like here is Carolina's coming off
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: a horrific-looking loss. We know they lost 43-13 last week
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: at home to Tampa Bay. So who's going to want
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina after that? nobody's going to want them except me because,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: you know, I like to play on teams after they
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: look their worst. A team is never as bad as
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: they look in their worst game. And for whatever reason,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Carolina has not been that good at home. Their defense
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: has been a nightmare at home. They're only 1-2 at home.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: They've been better on the road. They're 2-1 on the road.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: So for whatever reason, Carolina's been a better road team.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: And I think this game's a little bit more comparable
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: to their game maybe against the Eagles because you're looking
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: at a Packer team that struggles offensively and that is
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: pretty good on defense. So, yeah, I think that Eagles,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: although Packers are obviously better than the Eagles. The Eagles
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: have major issues right now. But still, I think that's
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: at least somewhat comparable. Except, yes, the Eagles are returning
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: home from London, I know. So it's not that comparable.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: But still... Carolina, though, coming off this game against Tampa Bay.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay ran the football all over Carolina. Carolina has
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: a bad rushing defense, but Green Bay has had one
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: of the worst rushing offenses on the season, and I
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: know they just got Josh Jacobs back. He's on my
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: fantasy team, but Green Bay still only put up 60
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: rushing yards last week. I think Jacobs did find the
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: end zone, so his score in fantasy wasn't that bad,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: and I think I actually have to play him tonight
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: because he's facing a really, really bad rushing defense, but
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Green Bay... I don't know if their rushing attack is
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: going to be solved just with Jacobs coming back. I mean,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: first of all, he wasn't able to practice when he
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: was out, so he, I think, still needs to get
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: his footing a little bit and get used to playing again.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: But also, part of the reason why Green Bay's rushing
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: attack is so bad is because their offensive line is terrible.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Their run blocking scheme is awful. They might have the
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: worst offensive line in the league. Maybe Chargers. This Green
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: Bay offensive line is terrible. So that's part of the
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: reason why the rushing attack has been so bad. Running
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: backs a lot of times are plug and play in
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: the NFL, and a lot of times it just has
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: to do with your run blocking schemes, right? And As
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: long as you can run and you're physically able to
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: do that, usually you can put up some decent numbers
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: as a running back in the NFL, even if you're
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: a replacement running back. Green Bay has not been able
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: to do that. I think that's kind of a red flag.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: I don't see Green Bay being able to gash Carolina's
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: biggest defensive weakness, which is against the run. I don't
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: think Green Bay is going to be able to take
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: advantage of that nearly as much as Tampa was able
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: to do. Tampa was able to run the football a
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: lot against Carolina, but this was also a misleading score.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: You know, whenever you see 43 to 13, there was
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: something misleading about it. And yes, Tampa, Tampa did out
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: gain Carolina in the game. I liked Tampa in the
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: game as an underdog, but Carolina had four turnovers in
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: the game too. There were minus four in turnover. So,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: you know, that skewed the result quite a bit. Like statistically,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: they only should have lost the game by one or
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: two scores at most. You know what I mean? Um,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: The turnovers completely skewed the game. Tampa Bay did all
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: this without... Like, Tampa Bay barely even had to throw
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: the football. So, yeah, you know, this game was just
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: extremely misleading. So I think Carolina coming off a game
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: like that, they're going to be in bounce-back mode. And
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: I saw some stat that... It was Marco D'Angelo put
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: it out there. I think it originally came from Ralph Michaels.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: All these guys are handicappers over at WagerTalk. They put
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: out some good information there. Ralph Michaels does all the
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: stuff with the trends and angles and stuff, the TNA,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: and I think this came from him his database I'm
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: trying to remember exactly what the stat was but I
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: believe it was when Carolina loses And then in the
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: next game, they're an underdog. Carolina has covered 15 straight
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: times in that spot. I think it's as simple as that. Carolina,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: as an underdog coming off of a loss, they've covered
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: 15 straight times, and they've won 10 of those games outright,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: I believe is what it is. And in the NFL,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: there's a longer... That would be a trend, I guess,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: because it's Carolina specifically. Then I guess there's also an
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: angle in the NFL that is league-wide where... When teams
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: are a favorite like Carolina was and they lose and
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: they're an underdog in the next week, those teams do
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: really well against the spread as well. They hit at
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: a high rate. And I've already talked about that. When
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: you get a team that was a favorite and they
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: did bad and now they're an underdog in the next week,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: you do want to look towards that team because they're
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: shifting roles. They just lost as a favorite. They lost
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: the game they were supposed to win. So they're going
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: to be in a refocused spot, a bounce-back spot. But now,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: not only that, but they're getting points. You know what
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: I mean? So that's the spot Carolina's in here. And
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: I don't particularly like the spot for Green Bay. Green
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: Bay's coming off a really big game against Detroit. So
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: a huge divisional matchup against one of their biggest rivals.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: A three-point loss at Detroit. That was a big game
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: for Green Bay. And I get it that it's Thursday.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: So Green Bay traveling back from Detroit is going to
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: be a lot easier for them than for Carolina having
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: to travel up from Home from Charlotte or whatever up here. Yeah,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: it's an easier travel spot for Green Bay on a
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround time. Yeah, that's like the only hesitation I
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: have with Carolina here. I'm not worried about the weather.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: It's going to be in the 50s out, so it's
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: not going to be a cold weather game or anything
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: like that. So don't have to worry about the frozen
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: tundra here in Green Bay. We're not into the winter yet,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: so that shouldn't have an effect really here. But Green Bay,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: that was a big game against Detroit. If you dig
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: into the box score, Detroit shot themselves in the foot
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: repeatedly with Dan Campbell going for it on fourth down.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: I like the going for it on fourth down. I
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: think he's stupid and he does it when it's not
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: mathematically advantageous to do it. That's the thing. You want
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: to do it when it is. He needs a numbers
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: guy telling him what to do because he's a moron.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: He's a former NFL player, a tight end. That guy...
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: He's low IQ, Dan Campbell, okay? He's a meathead, and
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: he does not understand the math behind it. He just goes, no, no,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: we're going for it. I just think he thinks that
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: the math says that in every situation, which is not true.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: I think he should be doing it, and some of
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: the times that he does, he's doing it correctly, but
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of times he's not. And I think that
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: screwed them in that game against... in that game against
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, although the Lions did win the game, but
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: if you dig into that box score, the Lions won
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: the yardage battle by like 100 yards in the game,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: so the Lions were better in that game than it
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: actually looks on the scoreboard. Green Bay's got some offensive problems, man,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: and the Lions don't have a good defense, so even
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: though Carolinas might be a little bit worse, If Green
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Bay can't put up a decent amount of offense against
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: the Lions in a dome, that Lions D is not good, man.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Green Bay was not very good offensively against Dallas either.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: They won the game, but Dallas, you should gash Dallas.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: You should put up 30 points against Dallas. Dallas' defense
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: is horrendous. So Green Bay, they faced two bad defenses
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: in a row. Three, really, against the Bears. They did
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: put up a lot of points against the Bears, so
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: give them that. But it's not a good sign that
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: they're facing these bad defenses and not consistently putting up
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: a ton of offense here, so this Green Bay offense
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: has got some problems, and I think that might help
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: keep the Panthers in this game. I like the spot
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: for it. Also, Green Bay does have the Patriots next,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: so if you think that might be a look ahead, maybe,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: because the Patriots won the AFC last year, so they
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: might consider that to be a bigger game. I mean,
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: it's the New England Patriots. They got a They got
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: that aura surrounding them right now because of the Belichick era.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: But because they made the Super Bowl last year, it's
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: like they kind of have that aura back in a way.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? So you could make the
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: argument this is a sandwich spot sort of as well.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: But at the very least, it's a huge bounce-back spot
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: for Carolina. And I think it's a hangover spot for
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, losing their three-game win streak in a heated
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: divisional rivalry game last week. So we're going to take
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers out. plus three and a half or
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: four if you find a four out there i can
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: update it if a four comes out garrett yeah i
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: know you like to hear that i'm on i'm on
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: your team uh it's a rarity but yes um i
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: think that's it man um that's all i got today
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: um you know uh we have three plays we have
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: uh WNBA coming up first. We're laying the points with
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: the dream. We got to get back on track with
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: the WNBA, man. You know, team total over makes sense
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: in that game for them, too. But I'm just laying
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: the points. They better just get it done, man. Or
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: you can money line parlay them, I guess. But I
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: don't really, you know, the other games I gave up
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: were underdogs. So I don't know what you'd want to
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: do with that. We're on the Carolina Panthers in the NFL.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: I should have that last probably. plus the three and
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: a half. And we're also jumping into hockey. Even though
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: there are three or four hockey games I like, I'm
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: being maybe too selective here. We're on the Blackhawks as
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: a split bet here, partially puck line, partially money line.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: That's going to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: sort of. Like, subscribe to the channel here. Boost this
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: thing up. Let's get more viewers here, man, more subscribers, whatever.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: Let's boost it up. I do have memberships as well,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: but there's nothing members only really yet. I got to
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: figure out what I want to do with that because
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: that's new to me. But we want to get these.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: We got to try to get to 1,000, man, subscribers.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: It's going to take a while. 600 is the next milestone,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: so let's hit that first. Let's get some more viewers,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: more listeners here. Comment, like, subscribe, pass the word around.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: We're on audio as well, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, so check
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: it out there as well. Covered in Uke is a
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: ukulele channel that I have on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: if you want to support me over there. And LoserCast.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: Why do I always forget? LoserCast, every Tuesday night, the
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: comedy show that I do right now. That's going to
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: do it. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, Garrett. You've been the only
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: one in the chat, I'm pretty sure. Go Panthers, I guess.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: Have a winning day today, man. Peace.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: You do not have.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo