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Cross-Country Labor Market Check: U.S., Euro Area, U.K., Canada, Australia · Can't Find Job? AI Is Quietly Replacing Millions of Workers

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Cross-country Labor Market Check.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: United States, Euro Area, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Important data note: a literal comparison of September 2026 with September 2025 is not yet possible, as of September 3, 2026.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: September 2026 is still in progress, and the national statistical agencies have not released the full September data.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: The latest available data are uneven.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: The comparison below therefore uses September 2025 as the historical benchmark where available, while also showing the most recent 2026 data.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: For year-over-year comparisons, it uses the latest available like-for-like period.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Executive Summary.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: The United States has the lowest latest unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026, followed by Australia at 4.5%, and the United Kingdom at 4.9%.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: Canada improved the most from its September 2025 position, with unemployment falling from 7.1% in September 2025 to 6.4% in July 2026.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area remains stable but weaker than the English-speaking economies, with unemployment at 6.4% in July 2026, unchanged from its revised September 2025 rate.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: The United States shows a mixed picture.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Unemployment is lower than in September 2025, but labour force participation has fallen by about 1% point.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom has the clearest signs of cooling hiring demand.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Vacancies were down 2.7% from a year earlier, while unemployment was up 0.2 percentage points over the year.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Australia remains relatively strong, but its unemployment rate has risen to 4.5%, and job vacancies were down 2.1% in the year to May 2026.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Wage growth is slowing in most markets, although pay remains strongest in the United Kingdom among the countries with directly reported annual wage growth data.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: The major structural forces are lower labor demand, aging populations, immigration policy, public sector hiring, healthcare demand, trade exposure, and differences in wage setting systems.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Latest labor market snapshot.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: The figures are not perfectly comparable.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: The United States uses a population aged 16 and older for its headline unemployment rate.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Canada and Australia generally use ages 15 and older.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: The euro area uses ages 15 to 74, and the United Kingdom reports unemployment for ages 16 and older, but activity measures for ages 16 to 64.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: The wage series also differ.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Some measure hourly earnings, some measure labor costs.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: And Australia's wage price index is designed to remove changes caused by shifts in the mix of workers.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: September 2025 benchmark.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area's September 2025 unemployment rate was revived from 6.23% to 6.4% in a later Eurostat release.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: The United States also has a data quality issue.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: September 2025 employment data were delayed by a lapse in federal appropriations, and September job openings and labor turnover survey data were not published.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Relative unemployment ranking, using the latest available national data, the ranking from the lowest unemployment rate to the highest is.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: This ranking should be treated as indicative, not exact.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: Differences in age coverage, survey design, seasonal adjustment, and the use of rolling periods affect the results.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Year-over-year change visualization.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: The following chart uses the latest comparable period available for each economy rather than pretending that September 2026 data already exist.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Unemployment rate change.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: In Canada, unemployment fell from 6.9% in July 2025 to 6.4% in July 2026.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: In the United States, unemployment was about 0.2 percentage points lower in July 2026 than in July 2025.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: In the Euro area, unemployment rose from 6.3% in July 2025 to 6.4% in July 2026.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: In the United Kingdom, unemployment was 0.2 percentage points higher in April to June 2026 than a year earlier.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: In Australia, unemployment was 0.2 percentage points higher in July 2026 than in July 2025.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Vacancy change.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: The United States is the only economy in this comparison showing a clear increase in job openings on a like-for-like monthly basis.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Its openings rose from 7.089 million in July 2025 to 7.271 million in July 2026.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area vacancy rate fell from 2.4% to 2.3% between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: United Kingdom vacancies fell by 19,000 or 2.7% in the year to May to July 2026.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Australia recorded a 2.1% annual decline in vacancies in May 2026.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Labor force participation and supply.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Participation matters because an unemployment rate can look low simply because fewer people are working or looking for work.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: United States, the United States labor force participation rate fell from 62.4% in September 2025 to 61.4% in July 2026.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.1%.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: This combination suggests that the lower unemployment rate does not represent a stronger labor supply.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Some of the improvement came alongside fewer people participating in the labor market.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: The United States also reported that the employment to population ratio was 58.9% in July 2026, down from 59.6% in July 2025.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: This is another sign that the labor market is not simply getting stronger across every measure.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Euro area.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area participation rate for people aged 15 to 64 was about 75.7% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with about 75.78% in the third quarter of 2025.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: The change is small, but the area is dealing with an aging population and large differences between member countries.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: There is also a composition issue.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Bulgaria joined the Euro area on January 1, 2026, changing the official Euro area aggregate from 20 countries to 21 countries.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Comparisons across the membership change should therefore be interpreted carefully.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: United Kingdom.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom's economic inactivity rate was 20.9% for people aged 16 to 64 in April to June 2026.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: That implies a working age participation rate of approximately 79.1%.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: The employment rate was 75.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom's labor market data require extra caution because the Office for National Statistics has warned that changes to the labor force survey and response patterns affect short-term comparisons.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: The agency recommends looking at several indicators together, including payroll data, vacancies, and unemployment.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: Canada.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Canada's employment rate rose to 60.9% in July 2026.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: Combining that figure with the 6.4% unemployment rate gives an estimated participation rate of about 65.1%.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: This is slightly below the 65.2% participation rate recorded in September 2025, although the change is small.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: Canada's stronger unemployment result appears to reflect improving employment rather than a major withdrawal from the labor force.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: Employment increased by 75,000 in July, with gains in private sector employment and self-employment.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: Australia.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Australia's participation rate was 66.9% in July 2026, down 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: The employment-to-population ratio fell to 63.9%, while employment remained 1.3% above its July 2025 level.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: This points to a growing population and continued employment growth, but also a modest weakening in the share of the population working or seeking work.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Wage growth.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: Wage comparisons require care because the national measures are different.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom has the strongest directly reported annual wage growth in this group, but it also has a widening difference between public sector and private sector pay growth.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: The Office for National Statistics reported that businesses were citing higher labor costs and other operating expenses as reasons for limiting recruitment.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: In the United States, average hourly earnings rose to$37.62 in July 2026, up 3.2% from a year earlier.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: That was slower than the 3.8% annual increase recorded in September 2025.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Canada also experienced slower wage growth.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: Average hourly wages increased 2.8% in July 2026, compared with 3.3% in September 2025.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: This combination of lower unemployment and slower wage growth suggests that labor market pressure has eased.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Sectoral exposure, United States, healthcare remains the main support.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: Healthcare continued to add jobs in July 2026, increasing employment by 22,000.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: However, the pace was slower than its average monthly gain over the previous year.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: Other areas were weaker.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Local government education lost 50,000 jobs.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: Retail trade lost 19,000 jobs.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: Financial activity employment fell by 14,000.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: Financial activity employment was down 121,000 jobs from its May 2025 peak.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: The United States therefore has a two-speed labor market.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: Healthcare and some social services remain strong, while finance, retail, government education, and parts of transportation are softer.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area vacancy rate was 2.4% in services, compared with 2.0% in industry and construction in the first quarter of 2026.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: The highest vacancy rates were reported in administrative and support services, 3.2%, accommodation and food services, 3.2%, construction, 3.1%, telecommunications and computer services, 2.8%, professional, scientific and technical services, 2.5%.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: This shows that the Euro area's labor shortage is concentrated more in services and selected skilled activities than in broad industrial hiring.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: United Kingdom, healthcare, retail, and manufacturing are under pressure.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: United Kingdom vacancies fell in 11 of 18 industries over the year to May to July 2026.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: The largest annual declines included human health and social work, down 11,000 vacancies, wholesale and retail trade, down 7,000 vacancies, arts, entertainment and recreation, down 17%, manufacturing jobs, down 3.2% in the year to March 2026, information and communication jobs down 3.6% in the year to March 2026.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom's labor market is therefore not suffering from a collapse in employment, but it is showing a broad reduction in employer demand.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: Canada, domestic services and construction improved, but trade remains a risk.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: Canada recorded July employment gains in wholesale and retail trade, 21,000, finance, insurance, real estate rental and leasing, 18,000, professional scientific and technical services, 17,000, construction, 16,000, employment declined in public administration and agriculture.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: Canada also remains exposed to trade conditions because many industries depend on demand from the United States.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: Statistics Canada has separately highlighted tariff-related uncertainty and industries dependent on United States demand as important labour market risks.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: Australia, employment is still growing, but vacancies are falling.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: Australia's headline data show employment 1.3% higher than a year earlier, but vacancies fell 2.1% in the year to May 2026.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: This combination usually means that labour supply is expanding faster than employer demand.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: Australia also has a relatively high participation rate and remains one of the major destinations for temporary labor migration.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: That makes changes in migration flows especially important for industries that depend on new workers entering the labor force.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: Policy and immigration differences.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: Immigration supply.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported that about 70% of temporary labor migrants entering Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Countries in 2024 went to four destinations.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: The United States, Australia, Japan, and Canada.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom was also an important destination for seasonal work.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: This concentration means that changes to temporary worker, student, and skilled migration rules can quickly affect labor supply in these economies.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: Canada has moved towards slower population growth through lower temporary resident targets.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: Its 2026-2028 immigration plan set temporary resident arrival targets of 385,000 in 2026, 370,000 in 2027, 370,000 in 2028.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: The policy also emphasizes transitioning people already in Canada to permanent residents when they have needed skills and experience.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: This may reduce the speed of labor force growth, but could improve the match between immigration and labor shortages.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: Wage and hiring costs.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom provides the clearest current example of policy and cost pressures affecting hiring.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Businesses told the Office for National Statistics that higher labor costs and operating costs were limiting recruitment, particularly among smaller firms.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, public sector pay growth was much faster than private sector pay growth.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: Monetary and labor market adjustment.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Across the five economies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development describes a labor market that remains resilient but is showing signs of weakening.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Employment and participation remain historically high, while vacancies per unemployed person have fallen and labor shortages have eased.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: Young labor market entrants are facing particular pressure.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: The main difference is how each country adjusts.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: The United States is showing lower participation and continued healthcare hiring.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area is showing stable unemployment but weaker industrial demand.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom is showing lower vacancies and increased employer cost pressure.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: Canada is benefiting from a lower unemployment rate, but is adjusting to slower immigration growth and trade uncertainty.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: Australia is still adding jobs, but has seen a fall in vacancies and a slight decline in participation.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: Purchasing managers index signals.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: The August 2026 FLASH Purchasing Managers Index Report from SP Global indicated that business activity across the United States, Euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom accelerated to its fastest pace since April 2022.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: This is a positive growth signal, but the publicly available summary does not provide a single harmonized employment index table for all five economies.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: It should therefore be used as a directional supplement, not as a replacement for national employment and vacancy data.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: The most reliable conclusion from the available survey evidence is business activity improved in the United States, Euro area, and United Kingdom in August.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: National vacancy data still shows softer hiring demand in the United Kingdom, Euro area, and Australia.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: A stronger activity index does not necessarily mean immediate job growth, because employers may first raise output through productivity, hours, or existing staff.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: Overall assessment.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: Strongest labor market position, United States.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: The United States has the lowest unemployment rate and the highest vacancy rate in this comparison.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: However, the decline in participation and the weakness in finance, retail, and local government education mean that the market is not uniformly strong.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: Best improvement from the 2025 benchmark, Canada.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Canada recorded the largest fall in unemployment from its September 2025 level.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: Employment increased in several private sector industries, although wage growth slowed and trade exposure remains a risk.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: Most stable but structurally divided, Euro area.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro area has stable unemployment and continued employment growth, but industrial and construction vacancies are weaker than service vacancies.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: The average also hides large differences among member countries.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: Clearest cooling signal United Kingdom.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_00: The United Kingdom has higher unemployment than a year earlier, fewer vacancies, falling payroll employment, and employer concerns about labor costs.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: Wage growth is still firm, especially in the public sector, but private sector hiring is weaker.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: Still strong, but losing momentum.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: Australia.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: Australia continues to have a high participation rate and employment above its 2025 level.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: However, unemployment is higher, vacancies are falling, and the labor market is becoming less tight.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: What to watch next?
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: For a true September 2026 comparison, analysts should watch United States August and September Employment Reports, including participation and average hourly earnings, Eurostat's second quarter labor force data and later September unemployment data.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: United Kingdom Labor Force data for May to July and later June to August 2026.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: Canada's August and September Labor Force Survey releases, followed by job vacancy data.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: Australia's August and September Labor Force releases, scheduled for late September and October.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: Immigration and temporary resident flows, especially in Canada and Australia.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: Vacancy to unemployment ratios, which are often more useful than unemployment alone for judging hiring pressure.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Industry-level data, especially healthcare, construction, manufacturing, finance, retail, education, and professional services.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: Practical advice, employers, plan for slower hiring, but expect continued recruitment difficulty in healthcare, skilled services, construction, and selected technology occupations.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: Job seekers, focus on sectors with persistent vacancies rather than relying only on the national unemployment rate.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: Investors, watch vacancies and participation, not just payroll growth.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_00: A low unemployment rate can hide a shrinking labor supply.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: Policymakers, balance immigration controls with the need to fill labor shortages, especially in aging economies.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_00: Researchers, avoid ranking countries without adjusting for age coverage, rolling periods, vacancy definitions, and wage series differences.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: All links to sources are available in the text version of this article.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: You can find the full article at can't findjob.com slash blog.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
• 20:04
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• 20:10
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