Latest / The Pivot Podcast with Fexingo: How Businesses Change Direction and Survive Disruption / How Pfizer Pivoted to mRNA and Reinvented Vaccines
Transcript
- Lucas: So, a few months before the pandemic hit the United States, Pfizer's CEO Albert Bourla was sitting in a conference room in New York with the head of vaccine research, Kathrin Jansen. And they're looking at data from a tiny German company called BioNTech. The data shows that a completely unproven technology — messenger RNA — had produced a promising immune response in a Phase 1 trial for a flu vaccine. And Bourla looks at Jansen and asks, 'Can we do this at scale?' Luna: And that meeting effectively rewrote the history of the pandemic. But it could have gone the other way, right? Most big pharma companies were betting on traditional protein-based vaccines. Lucas: Exactly. And that's what makes this one of the most underappreciated pivots in modern business. Pfizer was a traditional small-molecule drug company. I mean, this is the company that made its name on penicillin mass production during World War Two, then Viagra, then Lipitor. Not exactly a hotbed of cutting-edge genetic medicine. But in 2018, they took a $185 million equity stake in BioNTech and agreed to co-develop an mRNA-based flu vaccine. That was a huge deal at the time — a massive bet on an unproven platform. Luna: And it's not just the R&D bet. They also had to build manufacturing capacity for something that had never been made at scale. I remember reading that they had to essentially design a new production line from scratch during the pandemic. Lucas: That's the part that really impresses me. When the pandemic hit, Pfizer didn't just have a candidate — they had a manufacturing blueprint. They'd already spent two years figuring out how to make lipid nanoparticles, which are the fatty bubbles that carry the mRNA. That's not trivial. Most companies had never done it beyond lab scale. Pfizer had already built a pilot plant in Andover, Massachusetts, and they'd tested the process on a few thousand doses. So when they needed to scale to billions of doses, they had a starting point. Luna: So the pivot wasn't just 'we'll partner with a biotech' — it was a full organizational shift. Did the culture inside Pfizer actually change? Lucas: That's the crux of it. Bourla explicitly said they had to move from a culture of 'not invented here' to one of external innovation. Pfizer historically had a very insular R&D culture — they liked their own compounds, their own processes. The BioNTech partnership forced them to cede control on the science side. BioNTech owned the mRNA platform; Pfizer focused on manufacturing and distribution. That's a hard thing for a company with 170 years of legacy to swallow. Luna: And it worked partly because Bourla was relatively new as CEO — he took over in January 2019. So he had the mandate to shake things up. Lucas: Right. He'd been at Pfizer for 25 years, but he was an outsider as a veterinarian by training, not a chemist. He wasn't wedded to the old model. And he had the cover of a major external crisis — the pandemic. But look, the pivot wasn't guaranteed. In 2020, Pfizer had to decide whether to allocate massive resources to an mRNA vaccine or stick with their traditional vaccine program. They had an in-house protein-based vaccine candidate too. They could have hedged. But Bourla made the call to go all-in on mRNA. Luna: That decision alone cost them billions in upfront manufacturing investment before they even knew the vaccine worked. That's a gutsy move. Lucas: It was. And it paid off not just in revenue — about $40 billion in COVID vaccine sales in 2021 alone — but in strategic position. Now Pfizer has an mRNA platform that they're applying to flu, shingles, and even cancer. The flu mRNA vaccine candidate is already in Phase 3 trials. They're basically trying to replicate the same model that made Moderna a household name, but with a much bigger balance sheet and commercial muscle. Luna: But here's the question I keep coming back to: was this a deliberate pivot, or was it a lucky bet that happened to pan out? Because if you look at the timeline, the BioNTech deal was signed in August 2018. That's before COVID-19 was even on anyone's radar. They were betting on mRNA for flu, not for a novel coronavirus. Lucas: That's a fair challenge. And I think the honest answer is: it was both. The flu bet was strategic — mRNA could theoretically be faster and more adaptable than traditional flu vaccines, which take six months to produce each season. But the pandemic created a once-in-a-century validation event. Pfizer didn't predict COVID-19. What they did was build a platform that was ready when a crisis hit. That's the definition of strategic optionality. Luna: It reminds me of what Andy Grove said at Intel — 'only the paranoid survive.' You invest in something that seems like a side bet, and then the world changes and that side bet becomes your core. Lucas: Exactly. And now Pfizer is trying to sustain that momentum post-pandemic. The challenge is that COVID vaccine demand has fallen sharply. In 2023, their COVID vaccine revenue dropped by more than 70 percent year-over-year. So the pivot isn't finished — they have to prove that mRNA can generate blockbuster products beyond COVID. That's the next chapter. Luna: And if these kinds of deep-dive business conversations have helped you think differently about strategy or risk in your own work, there's a simple way to support this show. We deliberately keep these episodes free of ads and sponsors — no interruption. If that approach has value to you, you can help sustain it at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's a small gesture that makes a big difference to us. Lucas: Yeah, that support is what keeps us focused on the story rather than selling something. So, back to Pfizer — they've announced plans to launch an mRNA-based flu vaccine by 2028, potentially replacing their own traditional flu shot. That would be a real test of whether the pivot has legs. Luna: And they're also investing heavily in mRNA cancer vaccines, with promising Phase 2 data on melanoma. If that works, the pivot goes from a pandemic miracle to a permanent transformation of the company. Lucas: Exactly. The cancer opportunity is the real prize. Personalized mRNA vaccines — made from a patient's own tumor mutations — are a completely new modality. Pfizer is running multiple trials with BioNTech. If even one succeeds, it could transform oncology and Pfizer's revenue mix for decades. Luna: But the competitive landscape is intense. Moderna is ahead in respiratory vaccines, and BioNTech itself is developing its own standalone products. Pfizer's partnership with BioNTech is still exclusive in certain areas, but that could evolve. Lucas: Right. The partnership agreement gives Pfizer exclusive rights to the COVID vaccine and certain other infectious disease targets, but BioNTech retains rights to cancer and some other areas. So Pfizer has to balance collaboration with potential future competition. That's a delicate dance. Luna: And beyond mRNA, Pfizer is also making other pivots. They acquired Seagen for $43 billion in 2023 to beef up their cancer drug pipeline. So it's not an either-or; they're building multiple platforms. Lucas: That acquisition is a great example of how the mRNA experience changed Pfizer's appetite for big bets. Before the pandemic, a $43 billion deal would have been seen as risky. But after seeing what a platform technology can do, the board was more willing to greenlight another large acquisition. They're thinking in terms of platforms now, not just individual drugs. Luna: So the cultural shift is real. The company that once prided itself on internal discovery is now actively seeking external innovation through partnerships and M&A. Lucas: And that's the lasting lesson from the Pfizer pivot. It wasn't just about mRNA. It was about building the organizational muscle to recognize a platform technology, invest heavily before the proof is fully in, and then scale it at unprecedented speed. That capability — the ability to pivot — is now embedded in how Pfizer approaches strategy. Luna: I think the most interesting test is still ahead. If the mRNA flu vaccine works, it could revolutionize the entire influenza vaccine market, which is worth about $6 billion a year. And it would validate that mRNA is a true platform, not a one-hit wonder. Lucas: And that's exactly the kind of pivot story we'll be watching. A 170-year-old company betting its future on a technology that didn't exist a decade ago. If it succeeds, it'll be a case study in corporate reinvention that business schools will teach for generations. Luna: If you enjoyed this episode, we've got more deep dives on corporate pivots coming up. Next week, we look at how Adobe transitioned from selling software in boxes to a cloud subscription model. That's a classic. Lucas: See you then.