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Brian Thomas Jr. Will DOMINATE in 2025 · Duval Daily: A Jacksonville Jaguars Podcast

• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jacksonville Jack Wars fans, welcome in to Dove All Daily, presented by Gen Jack.com.
• 0:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jordan Deluga.
• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you so much for being here.
• 0:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Monday, July, fourteenth.
• 0:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right now, we are talking about none other than Brian Thomas Jr.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: You're a wide receiver.
• 0:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: One, we are
• 0:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: a little over a week away from getting to see this guy in the practice field.
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: And yes, Jags fans will be in attendance at training camp practices for a good bit of training camp.
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: First couple of weeks fans will be there often.
• 0:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe every practice, I'm not exactly sure, but they will be there often.
• 0:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: I will be out there.
• 0:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Covering this team boots on the ground for y'all.
• 0:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Brian Thomas Jr.
• 0:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: is getting ready to go scorch Thursday on the NFL in
• 0:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: feel really, really good about that, feel very bullish on Brian Thomas Jr., and I know I'm not going out on a limb here.
• 1:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the guy was third in the NFL, and the entire league in receiving last year as a rookie on a horrible team.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And his efficiency, even on a horrible offense, was still very good, right?
• 1:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like he had a insane rookie year.
• 1:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: He had a hundred, twenty-nine targets, eighty-seven catches.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: One thousand two hundred eighty two yards fourteen point seven yards per catch ten touchdowns.
• 1:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was something else.
• 1:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Your odds per route run.
• 1:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Where's that at?
• 1:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Two point four five.
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was crushing it.
• 1:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Average depth of target was eleven point nine and you had like a very varied.
• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: usage of Brian Thomas Jr.
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: throughout the year because he was heavily targeted deep down the field, but also he got the ball on screens, he got the ball on short game stuff, quick game stuff.
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: So he can really do it all.
• 2:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was lined up at wide a lot, aligned in the slot, twenty eight point four percent of the time and did that a lot more as the season went on, aligning in the slot.
• 2:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was awesome.
• 2:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, on a horrible inconsistent, poorly coached, poorly executed offense.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Brian Thomas Jr.
• 2:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: was a bright spot.
• 2:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: I expect him to go off this year.
• 2:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about what I expect the stats to be.
• 2:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: I did a stat exercise earlier in the off season.
• 2:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: I can't remember what I came up with, but I reevaluated
• 2:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: My Brian Thomas Jr.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: projections, and we're going to dive into it.
• 2:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: You really appreciate y'all tuning in.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I expect the Jaguars to have about five hundred forty five passing attempts this year.
• 2:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Last year, the bucks had around that number, plus the playoff game.
• 3:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Last year, the Jaguars had around that number.
• 3:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's just kind of the baseline number we're looking at this year, which is a little over thirty passing attempts per game, which makes sense on a team that has all the weapons that the Jaguars have, the passing game coaching that the Jaguars have.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that that is pretty reasonable expectation.
• 3:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: I expect Brian Thomas Jr.
• 3:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: who had like a little over twenty three percent of the targets last year for the Jaguars and his target share ramped up throughout the year in a big way.
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: As he got more comfortable in the offense as the Jaguars figured out they just did not have anything else that was working
• 3:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Brian Thomas Jr.
• 3:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: will easily get twenty-five to twenty-seven and a half percent of the target share.
• 3:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Jacksonville this year.
• 3:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's like, if you're on the low end of that, that's around a hundred forty targets.
• 3:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a lot.
• 4:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, last year, you had a hundred twenty nine.
• 4:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's more targets, more volume.
• 4:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's deserving of that even with the additions that you've seen on this offense throughout the off season.
• 4:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Last year he caught like sixty-seven percent of his targets.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that that number will improve this year.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he will be more efficient this year.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: Reason being, he will improve going into his second year.
• 4:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: His situation will improve going into his second year.
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm giving him a hundred catches.
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if he was at sixty seven percent of his targets caught this this upcoming year in twenty twenty five on a hundred forty target that would be ninety three-ish.
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm getting him up to about seventy percent catch rate on targets.
• 4:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that his situation has improved.
• 4:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: He has improved.
• 4:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the Jaguars are going to be giving him the ball in a lot of situations where it's like an easy screen for him to come down with a slant, right?
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Situations he can win on.
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: You just can't deny the talent that Brian Thomas Jr.
• 5:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: is.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Six, four, two, five, runs like the wind.
• 5:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's awesome.
• 5:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is going to put him close to fifteen hundred yards receiving, which is a massive number.
• 5:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: But don't forget, again, in a terrible offense.
• 5:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, just a take under thirteen hundred last year.
• 5:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: And you also got a factor in there.
• 5:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: They are going to get him the ball in the run game a little bit.
• 5:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: They like to do jet sweeps.
• 5:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: They like to send receivers in motion across the formation.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's gonna change.
• 5:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, you're gonna see a handful of carries at least, as well, to add to the totals.
• 5:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, based on his stats last year, again, even in a bad offense, he was able to score ten touchdowns.
• 6:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think in a good offense, with heavier usage, more utilization, better efficiency, I think he's gonna get fifteen touchdowns.
• 6:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right in that range.
• 6:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Over fourteen hundred yards close to fifteen maybe more.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Fifteen touchdowns somewhere in that range like I think Brian Thomas tuner is going to go off if you can draft him in fantasy I think he should.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's absolutely the type of guy that can win you your league where he's currently being drafted.
• 6:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to dominate the NFL not only because he is such a great player which he is like.
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Architect physical skill set wise.
• 6:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Who is more impressive than Brian Thomas Jr.
• 6:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: at the receiver position?
• 6:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying he's the best receiver in the league.
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's fair to put Justin Jefferson up there and AJ Brown, but legitimately, like if you were starting a team, who would you want higher than Brian Thomas Jr.
• 7:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: with his skill set?
• 7:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can't press him.
• 7:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Can't cover him one on one.
• 7:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's good at sitting down in zones as well.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's not getting confused.
• 7:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you saw him massively improved throughout the year in terms of route depth, making sure he is releasing the right direction.
• 7:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: He can run every route.
• 7:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the knocks on him more like, can he beat press?
• 7:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Can he run routes?
• 7:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: He answered that loud and clear last year.
• 7:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can't press him because he's got good footwork and he got good hand usage at the line.
• 7:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, so you mess on the jam and then he's past you.
• 7:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you can't press him.
• 7:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can't cover him one on one down the field.
• 7:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's good with the ball in his hands.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's a good yack player, good screen player.
• 7:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: You double him or bracket him.
• 8:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good luck.
• 8:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's way too much talent on the Jaguar's offense to do that.
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're just going to try to subtract him with two players, you got Travis Hunter to deal with, you got Travis CT end to deal with, down me brown, Britain's strange.
• 8:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just saying good luck.
• 8:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's on top of the fact that Liam Cohen
• 8:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: is so good at making it offense easy.
• 8:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about it the last week or so.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: I've shown you examples of it.
• 8:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: You've seen the numbers.
• 8:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Good luck.
• 8:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Brian Thomas Jr.
• 8:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: to the moon in twenty twenty five.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Feel very strongly about that.
• 8:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I know it's not going out on a limb.
• 8:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: The guy was electric as a rookie.
• 8:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think he's going to be even better and more productive.
• 8:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: By fairly wide margin.
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: here in twenty twenty five the only thing that could slow him down a little bit.
• 8:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know outside of the eye word is.
• 8:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: His hands were little inconsistent right his drop rate was fine he had six drops on the year on a hundred twenty nine targets that's fine with eighty seven catches.
• 9:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Not an issue really.
• 9:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: And his contested catch rate was good.
• 9:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: But there were a lot of moments.
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: With the double catching
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if a few of those went in the other direction and he didn't catch those passes, you could be looking at a little bit more variance, but I'm gonna go with the fact that drops have never actually been an issue for Brian Thomas Jr.
• 9:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, six point five percent drop rate on that type of volume is not an issue in any way shape or form.
• 9:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: and you go back to his college career, right?
• 9:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: His drop rate in twenty twenty two, which was still a very low volume season, was eight point eight, his drop rate in twenty three, which was his first high volume season, was six point eight.
• 10:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I would imagine he'll still be in that range, right?
• 10:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's still only twenty two years old.
• 10:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: That would be the only potential question mark.
• 10:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: But again, I don't think it has presented itself as an issue enough to really bank on that happening.
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not going to bank on him starting to drop the football tone.
• 10:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Think BTJ is going to have an electric year.
• 10:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully you all got your BTJ Prouler jerseys already.
• 10:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because those are going to be a hot commodity.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think they really will.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: really appreciate y'all being here if you enjoy the content please like and subscribe y'all have a good one