Latest / Pod Save America / “Elder Abuse.”

Transcript

“Elder Abuse.” · Pod Save America

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: On today's show, an awful August gives way to a
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: shit show of a September in Washington. NYU law professor
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Melissa Murray is back to talk about what's next in
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: a legal battle for abortion rights. And with just a
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: few days left until the California recall, we'll talk about
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: what might happen if Gavin Newsom is replaced with the
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: founding and only member of the Stephen Miller fan club,
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: right-wing radio host Larry Elder. And just a reminder... For
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: all you California voters, before we get started, the only
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: way to block a Republican takeover of California is to
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: vote no on question one. Should Governor Newsom be recalled?
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: If you're registered, you should have received your ballot in
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: the mail. You can mail it back or drop it
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: off at a drop box before 8 p.m. on Election Day,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: which is Tuesday, September 14th. Make your plan to do
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: it ASAP and tell your friends immediately. You can also
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: vote in person early or on election day and register
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: the same day to vote in certain locations. Just visit votesaveamerica.com
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: slash California to learn more. As always, the law requires
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: me to let you know that what I just said
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: was not authorized by a candidate or a committee controlled
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: by a candidate. It was authorized by me, Jon Favreau,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: political has-been.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: That's it.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: That's the only person who authorized that. All right. Let's
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: get to the news. After a peaceful, relaxing August where
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: the White House got to kick back and enjoy the
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: final days of summer, here's what's on tap for the fall.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: A pandemic that's still raging, an economy that's still recovering,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: a climate that's drowning and burning cities all over the country,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: thousands of Afghan refugees who need our help, a government
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: that may run out of money and breach a debt
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: ceiling that could trigger a global economic meltdown, a Republican
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: Party that's becoming more fascist by the day, and a
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party that can't do much of anything without approval
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: from a houseboat resident who represents a state that's about
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: half the size of Los Angeles. Did I miss anything?
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Did I get it all?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: You missed something.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: What is that?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: The eviction moratorium.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: And the unemployment benefits, too, that have expired. Yeah. Okay.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It's even worse than you thought.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Even worse than you thought.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Which would be the name of my solo podcast if
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I had one.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: A September to remember. All right, let's start with the
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: guy who apparently can only communicate with his colleagues via op-ed.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Joe Manchin wrote in last Thursday's Wall Street Journal that
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Congress should, quote, hit a strategic pause. Joe Biden's economic
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: plan because he's worried about the effects on inflation and
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: the national debt. Axios then reported on Wednesday that Manchin
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: won't support a plan that costs more than $ 1. 5 trillion.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: The current plan costs $ 3. 5 trillion over 10 years. And
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Manchin also has specific concerns about home care for the
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: elderly and disabled, affordable child care, universal community college, universal preschool,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: and the monthly child tax credit checks that have already
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: lifted 3 million children out of poverty in July. Dan,
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: why did Joe Manchin torture us with this op-ed? And
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: what do you make of his argument about debt and inflation?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: The question of why does Joe Manchin torture us is
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: a question that answers itself. It is why he exists.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: He serves no other purpose other than just making our
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: lives so much harder than they need to be. I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: would just make one suggestion to the Senate Democratic Caucus.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer, maybe Joe Biden, give Joe Manchin your cell
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: phone number. He could call you. He could text you.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: He would not need to communicate with you through a
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Rupert Murdoch-owned media property.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: But let's just— Can I just expand?
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Can I expand that, by the way? Yes, please. Just
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: to one more thing. My advice to all the Democrats
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: in the Senate and the House and their staffs, when
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: the reporter calls you, hang up the fucking phone. Stop
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: talking to all of these Hill reporters. It will not
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: guarantee that this plan will pass, but it's going to
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: make your lives a lot easier. Talk to each other.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Talk to each other. Debate with each other. Negotiate with
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: each other. When reporters ask about this or that thing,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: you can just walk away. It's fine. You know how
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: I know this works? Because every time we say this,
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: you know who gets really mad? Reporters. They get really
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: mad and they tweet us and say, keep talking to us.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Don't stop talking to us. So we don't need 50,000
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: fucking stories in Politico and The Post and The Times
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: about all the machinations of Democrats trying to pass this
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: plan because it's messy. Of course it's messy. And the
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: messier it is in public, the worse it's going to
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: be for you. So just shut the fuck up and
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: talk to each other about passing the plan.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: As I think we've said before, the failure of the
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party to develop an inner monologue is one of
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: our greatest challenges.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Greatest challenges.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: But we've gone down a rabbit hole, and it's a
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: rabbit hole I enjoy, so we'll stay here for a second.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: When they had... When Manchin published this op-ed, many people
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: on Twitter made the point that we just made about
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: why can't he just call Schumer and say, hey, I'm
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: thinking maybe a little less than $ 3. 5 trillion. They have
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: a conversation. They resolve it like colleagues, adults who work together,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: people who have been to dinner on the same houseboat.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: They could have done it that way. People pointed out correctly,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I think, that part of being a Republican from a
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Democratic state or vice versa is you have to do
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: this performative dance about how you're sticking it to your
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: party in some way or another. But I would just
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: say the flaw in that argument in this case, which
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: sort of speaks to kind of the big Manchin problem,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: is if Joe Manchin wanted to communicate with his very
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Republican West Virginia constituents, which I am very sympathetic to
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: his political position, but if he wanted to communicate with them,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I can think of about one trillion ways, to use
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: his number, that is more efficient than writing an op-ed
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: in the Wall Street Journal that will sit behind a
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: very expensive paywall. Could you do a West Virginia newspaper?
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: How about a town hall, my friend? How about going
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: to West Virginia? Not just sending an email to a
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Rupert Murdoch-funded company from your houseboat. There are ways to
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: do this. Okay, I will stop now.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Well, it also shows that perhaps Joe Manchin's performative centrism
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: is directed towards a center-right establishment in Washington and not
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: necessarily the voters in West Virginia, which is something that
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: I've always suspected. But who am I to divine Joe
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Manchin's motivations.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Can we get to the substance of his argument?
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Substance of the op-ed.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Go for it.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: The debt's out of control. Inflation is out of control.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: We must hit a pause. What do you think?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Idiocy. Pure idiocy. It's no labels, mad lips. It makes
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: no sense. Let's just do both parts of this. Let's
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: start with the inflation. When we had Austin Goolsbee, our friend,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: the former chief Obama economist on a few weeks ago,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: He pointed out that it's not $ 3. 5 trillion today, tomorrow,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: this year. It's over a decade. $ 350 million a year
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: on average. Look at that math. And, sorry, $ 350 billion.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Leave that in. $ 350 billion a year on average. That is,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I think Austin said something like an 8% increase in
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: federal budget. There is nothing to suggest that that would
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: have a real effect on inflation. Second, and this is
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: a point that the Biden, Austin and I talked about
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: this as well, but the Biden economists have pointed out,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: which is, you know what's one way to deal with
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: rising costs, particularly when a lot of inflation is in
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: things like food? Give people who can't afford food more
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: money so they can eat.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Here's a response to, like, think about this. Man, the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: cost of food is going up. So what I think
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: we should do is we should take the most vulnerable
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Americans and cut them off from their child tax credit.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: And make sure that the richest Americans get to keep
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: the tax breaks they got from Donald Trump.
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: That's a great way to do it. We are going to.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Starve our way out of this inflation thing. Then let's
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: talk about the debt issue. Do you know how much–
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: what this bill as currently constructed would.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Add– Now we're in a time machine. Now we're taking
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: things back to 2011. Here we go.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not even going to mention bending the cost curve.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It will cost zero, right? Around zero, depending on how
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the Congressional Budget Office scores it, it is paid for.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: We have to stop talking about investments in minimum working
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: class people in our country this way. Because Catherine Rampell
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: from The Washington Post made this point this morning on Twitter,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: and it's so smart. Democrats talk, we talk about spending
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: in terms of gross cost, right? 3.5 trillion dollars. We
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: never talk about how we're paying for it, right? We're
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: not saying it's going to add $ 0 deficit. It's just 3.5
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: trillion dollars. And part of, this is the fault of
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Democrats who have been leaning into the size and scope
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: of our progressive agenda. It's 3.5 trillion, not 3 trillion.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: That's inherently better. Point is, it's a bunch of really
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: smart investments paid for by asking rich people, corporations to
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: pay more money in taxes. That simple. But when you
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: talk about tax cuts, like when you, you know, when
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: you say like Donald Trump's $ 2 trillion tax cut, That's
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: not the gross cost, as Catherine pointed out, it's the
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: net cost. That's just what it costs when you've already
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: subtracted the things they did to raise revenue, like eliminating
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the state and local tax deductions, things like that. So
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: we talk about something really popular and important in the
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: worst possible way and something that is unpopular and pretty
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: harmful to economic inequality in the most favorable way. And
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: it's insane.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, not only is talking about $ 3. 5 trillion
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: as the cost intellectually dishonest, it's politically stupid. We are
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: paying for investments in families and small businesses by asking
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: the wealthiest people in this country to give up the
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: tax breaks they got under Donald Trump. That's a very
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: good message. Much better than, hey, I got it up
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: to $ 3. 5 trillion. And like, look, I know, you know, Democrats,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: even if they wanted to be on message, political reporters
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: are going to write about it this way because their
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: job is not to be on message for Democrats. So
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: they're going to keep it. But that doesn't mean that
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Democrats have to buy into that. and start talking about it.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: And you're right. that some of this is our fault
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: for like trumpeting the fact that we got 3.5 when
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: we first did this, which is, again, it is not
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: about the size of, it is not just about the
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: dollar amount on the package. It is about what investments
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: are inside the plan and what they would do for
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: people to improve their lives. That is the fundamental point
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: of passing this economic plan in the first place. President
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Biden was asked about all this on Tuesday night and
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: he said, quote, Joe at the end has always been there.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: I think we can work something out Chuck Schumer seems
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: equally optimistic. What do they know that we don't?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: That's a great question. Either one of them should come
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: on this podcast and tell us. What are they smoking?
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Give me some of that.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I think they are correct in making an assessment. Maybe
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: they do know something, right? Maybe Joe Manchin, like this
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Axios report is not correct. I suspect someone would have
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: corrected it if it wasn't from the Manchin side. But
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Biden and Schumer have had real success at least on
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the American Rescue Package and some other things in this era,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and frankly, even in the Obama era with Manchin, of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: keeping him on board by moving him along in a
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: positive and slow direction. And I assume that's what they're
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: trying to do here. I think the challenge of this is,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I do think we need some expectations management of what's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: going to happen, right? Just for the press narrative of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: what's achieved, because if we end up with $ 2 trillion
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: in really progressive, important investments in our country and in
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: our people, And that seems a disappointment because it's not 3.5 trillion.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: That's a huge messaging failing on our part. So I
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: understand the micro-legislative strategy, but from a macro level, I
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: think we do need to level set expectations for where
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: we think we're going to end up and then exceed that.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: And look, that's the messaging political challenge. Substantively, I'm sure
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: a lot of progressives will argue that it isn't great
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: if we don't get all we wanted in the original
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: budget resolution, which is 3.5 trillion. Of course, that's a disappointment,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: but we also... live in a world, as we have
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: now since Joe Biden took office, where Joe Manchin gets
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: a fucking vote, you know? And there's nothing we can
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: do about the fact that Joe Manchin gets a vote,
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: and we need all 50 Democrats in the Senate, including him,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: to pass anything at all. There's literally nothing to be
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: done about that, at least until 2022.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: And I think in the world of ordinary politics, getting
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: $ 1 trillion, $ 1. 5 trillion, $ 2 trillion for the sorts of
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: things that are being talked about in being in this
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: bill is a gigantic victory. It's something that would have seen,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: if you had said, told us a year ago that
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: after passing the American Rescue Act with a 50-50 Senate,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: a tiny House majority, that you would pass a bill
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: like this, people would have thought you were crazy. But
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: this is, the other way to think about this that
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: is so important is that in the context of the
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: fact that this might be the last bill we have
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: for an extended period of time to do anything legislatively
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: to arrest the scourge of climate change, then $ 3. 5 trillion
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: is not enough, right? And I think that's the– it's
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: like we should never lose sight of the fact that
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: this is the– that this is happening in a context
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: of forest fires, hurricanes, dangerous climate change, and we don't
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: want to just get sort of pulled into the art
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: of the possible here without understanding what is actually necessary
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: to address the big challenge.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: So, you know, there's also been reporting that Manchin staff
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: has been talking to the committee staff of the various
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: senators who are in charge of different committees that are
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: writing this legislation. So that might be one reason for
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: the optimism from Biden, from Schumer, from others. I think
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: the big question now is how do progressives and mainstream
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Democrats get the best deal possible out of Joe Manchin?
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: How do you bring him to your side as much
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: as you can? You know, Bernie Sanders said, $ 3. 5 trillion
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: was already the result of a major, major compromise. AOC
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: said last night that she'd tank the bipartisan infrastructure bill
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: without a good build back better plan, good economic plan
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: from Joe Biden. How much leverage do progressives have here
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: and how should they use it?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Well, technically, they have the exact same amount of leverage
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: as Joe Manchin. Bernie Sanders walks away, then his vote
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: is worth the same as Joe Manchin's. That gets lost
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: in the conversation all the time because progressives are always
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: expected to come in line and moderates have a freedom
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: to do incredibly self-destructive things if need be. The challenge
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: in the Senate, at least, is the BIF has already passed, right?
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: So Bernie does have the same ability to tank Joe
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Manchin's pride and joy in the bipartisan infrastructure framework or
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: whatever you still call it. But yeah, I mean, the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: question– the leverage depends on how much Joe Manchin cares
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: about passing the BIF.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I don't– I mean, I assume he does, but I
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: don't know that he cares so much that he would
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: swallow $ 3. 5 trillion just to get the BIF passed. So
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: that we just don't know.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: What keeps me up at night is Joe Manchin saying like, yeah,
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: I love the bipartisan infrastructure bill, but if we end
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: up passing nothing because– everyone yelled at me and progressives
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: demanded this and that and the other thing, then maybe
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with it. And I can just say, I
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: can go back home and say, hey, I tried. I
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: tried to pass some bipartisan package. I had all these
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Republicans on board. And unfortunately, my Democratic colleagues were too
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: far to the left and wanted too much spending. And
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: that's why Washington is broken. And I'm trying to fix it.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: You know, he could do that at the end of
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: the day. But, you know, I also think that when
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden first became president, I remember there was a
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: quote from Joe Manchin where he said, I'm going to
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: do everything I possibly can to make Joe Biden a
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: successful president. If this doesn't pass, that's not going to
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: make Joe Biden a successful president. And so then Joe
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: Manchin did not do what he said he wanted to do. Now,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: I know taking Joe Manchin at his word is an
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: exercise and potentially an exercise in futility, but there we go.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Joe Manchin speaks in a way in which he
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: is always completely correct and always completely incorrect.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: It's fucking infuriating. What are some of the big policy
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: fights in this plan that we can expect in the
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: coming weeks? And how do you think they get resolved
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: just to get into the substance of it?
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: This is a really hard thing to even talk about
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: without knowing what the top line number is, right? Because
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: that determines everything, right? Are we making the child tax
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: credit permanent or are they going to do it not
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: at all? Are you going to do it for like
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: five years, which is a probably a very good solution
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: because then you're like, it's, you would rather just make
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: these things permanent, but creating a cliff makes it generally
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: means that the part of the policy will get continued
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: because people don't want to really wants to raise taxes
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: in that situation. You know, big fight about, are we
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: going to expand fights out the right word? Because it's really,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: we're trying to allocate a pie of indeterminate size among
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: various things. There are some who are very focused on adding, um,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: dental and hearing and vision benefits to Medicare, which is insane.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: As someone who spent a lot of time this summer
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: trying to help my father-in-law find a hearing aid, the
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: fact that hearing aids are absurdly expensive and not covered
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: by Medicare is insane, really insane. Others are very focused
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: on making permanent the policies that strengthen the Affordable Care
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Act that were put into the American Rescue Plan to
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: increase the size of subsidies that would put the law
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: on very firm footing going forward. There's some talk about
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: closing the Medicaid gap to help the people who are
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: in almost entirely Republican Southern states that have refused to
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: expand Medicaid and are therefore not getting affordable care. It
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: sort of goes on and on and on about these
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: big decisions here. There are some things in there that
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: cost no money, like having, which HHS Secretary Javier Becerra
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: endorsed today, which is having the federal government negotiate pharmaceutical prices,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: which would save money and also spend more.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: Which is not only a fantastic policy substantively, but maybe
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: one of the most popular policies in polling for like
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: 10 years straight.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: We are one of the only major developed countries in
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: the world who do not do this, which also speaks
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: to how broken our political and campaign finance system is
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: that pharma has been able to prevent us from doing
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: something that everyone wants for decades.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would also say in the health care bucket,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: there's funding for home care for elderly and Americans with disabilities.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Our good friend Adi Barkin was tweeting about this today
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: as well. This is so that people who are older
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: or who have disabilities can get the care they need
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: at home and not have to leave their families alone.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: and be in a, in a, in a hospital or
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: another institution. So, um, that's very important as well. And look, it's,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: it's really tough. If you ask me about like all these,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: all these different healthcare fights, whether it's expanding Medicare to
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: include dental vision and hearing, uh, home care, shoring up
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: the affordable care act with Medicaid and better subsidies, like
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: kind of want it all. Like, I don't know how
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: to choose between all those things because all those things
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: are really, really important to help people. And we should
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: have all of them, you know? And I don't know
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: if I don't, I don't know how they're going to
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: get resolved. I mean, we should also talk about You know,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Manchin's proposing potentially at least reporting is saying means testing
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: for some of the universal education programs like universal pre-K
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: or community college so that, you know, they don't go
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: to everyone, but just middle class and poorer people. There's,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: of course, the proposal to lower the child tax credit.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: So it's a little and then there's the climate. We
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: haven't even talked about the climate part of the bill,
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: which is huge. And, you know, there's some reporting that
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Manchin is nervous about some of the more aggressive climate proposals.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: I still think that the most important provision here is
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: going to be some kind of a clean energy standard. And,
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: you know, he's been. for some kind of clean energy
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: standard in the past, though probably not the one that
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: would do the most good. So that remains to be seen. But,
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: you know, I can't tell if they're going to actually
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: just give up on some of these provisions or everything's
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: just going to cost a little bit less? Like if
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: they're just going to cut back on all of them
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: so that they get a little bit of everything. And
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I can't tell what's better.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, it sort of depends because you can do,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: there's a point at which it is more symbolic than substantive,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: but you've started the policy, right? And then the other
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: issue here is that as we speak, Senator Durbin and
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the senators are trying to convince the parliamentarian about whether
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: you can include a path to citizenship and immigration reform
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: in the bill.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Right. Which actually I think would which actually I think
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: nets revenue based on the way CBO has scored it
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: in the past.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the cost of that is not a problem at all.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: It's just going to be whether the parliamentarian says yes
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: or no.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: And there's a lot it's a lot at stake here
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: in this September to remember.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: A lot at stake. And while Democrats are trying to
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: pass a few decades worth of progressive policies in a
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: single bill, they also have to figure out a way
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: to avoid a government shutdown on September 30th. and a
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: debt ceiling breach in October or November that could lead
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: to what one top economist calls financial Armageddon. And if
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: that's still not tricky enough, the White House has asked
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Congress to pass an additional $ 14 billion of relief for
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: wildfires and storms, at least $ 10 billion to deal with
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, and $ 6. 5 billion to help
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: resettle Afghan refugees. How the hell are they going to
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: get all that done, Dan?
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: It is quite challenging. It was challenging before you added
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: the supplemental funding request. Speaker Pelosi reiterated the other day
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: that they would not include the debt ceiling in budget reconciliation,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: which means to avoid financial Armageddon, you're going to need
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: 10 Senate Republicans. Already, enough Senate Republicans have said they
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: will not do that. Now, there is obviously some sort
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: of reason for this that Exists because Speaker Pelosi, Senator Schumer,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden himself, Joe Biden's economic team are all around
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and intimately involved in the 2011-2013 debt ceiling fights. And
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I do sort of think the way they're setting this up,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: where if it is funding to keep the government running,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the debt ceiling, the funding for disasters that are in
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: many cases happening in Republican states, that becomes– It becomes
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: much harder for Republicans to engage in some sort of performative,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: dangerous brinksmanship around their desire to cut Social Security and
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Medicare under those circumstances. So I do think Biden and
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: the Democrats can win this fight. I think it could
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: be quite hard. It could be quite damaging. It really
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: depends on Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema not sort of
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: bailing and ending up with a bunch of Republicans as
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: part of some sort of Social Security cutting commission or
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: something that you can very easily see happening. What I
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: worry about here is not just this fight. We're just
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: passing up the opportunity to solve the debt ceiling issue
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: for the balance of Joe Biden's first term. Because the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: thing that keeps me up at night, I said this
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: before on this podcast, but is Speaker Kevin McCarthy and
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: maybe Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell controlling the debt limit
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: in 2023 or 2024 as Joe Biden is preparing for
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: reelection and potentially tanking the economy. Can you just imagine
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the demands that Speaker McCarthy would want? like Joe Biden resigned,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: put Donald Trump on the $ 20 bill, deliver us Hunter
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Biden in cuffs. Like you just, the sort of things
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: would be so insane. And we just have this opportunity
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: here that shouldn't be that hard to just take that
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: weapon away from a bunch of lunatics.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: I just worry about any strategy that is predicated on
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: the idea that Republicans in Congress are worried that they
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: may lose some political fight because they have not shown
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: any fear whatsoever in in losing political fights or being
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: on the fucking 80-20, being on the 20 side of
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: an 80-20 issue. They just haven't. They take hostages. They
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: blow up the economy. You know, they're protecting insurrectionists. They
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: love Donald Trump. They're voting to overturn elections. But now
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: they're going to be like, oh, we don't want to
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: get blamed for shutting down the economy or breaching the
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: debt ceiling. That's too far for us. I just, I
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: do not see how they're going to blink on this one.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I don't see it. I'd love to be wrong. I'd
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: love to be wrong. Maybe there is like a, you know,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: an escape valve here where if they go forward with
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: their threat to not blink and not raise the debt ceiling,
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: then Joe Biden's economic plan will not have passed yet.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: And the Democrats will still have an opportunity to stick
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: the debt ceiling increase in the budget bill if it
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: comes down to that. That's the only thing I can see.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe that's what's in their back pocket, but
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: who knows? And then, you know, an additional problem with
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the supplemental to C-plus Santa Monica fascist Stephen Miller has
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: already started to demagogue the refugee aid in the supplemental request,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: saying that Biden is holding relief for American storm victims
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: hostage to his radical migration agenda. How do you think
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Democrats should respond to that garbage?
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: I am very worried about the politics of refugee resettlement.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: It's easy to look at the polls and see, you know,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: there's a CBS poll. It's like 80-20 people support bringing
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Afghan allies here. I hope to be wrong about the
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: bulk of the Republican Party and sort of inherent racism
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: in swaths of the American public. But what haunts me
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: is that many months ago, Morning Consult did a poll
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: where they looked at all of Joe Biden's initial executive orders.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: All of them are incredibly popular with one glaring exception.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Simply raising the refugee cap was unpopular across the board,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: including with Democrats. And so like right now in the
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: heart of talking about our Afghan allies, I think it
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: seems like we should definitely do this. But there is
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: just this inherent racist, race-based nimbyism when it comes to refugees.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: It's like, yes, bring them here. Oh, I didn't mean here.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I meant somewhere over there, not in my neighborhood, not
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in my school. And I think when Stephen Miller, who
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: is a terrible messenger, but when he says radical migration agenda,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: that means shit to average people. Those are some keywords
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: that get the MAGA base, the alt-right world, fired up.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: But this is what Stephen Miller said on Laura Ingraham
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: right as this was all happening a few weeks ago.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: He said, it is extraordinarily expensive to resettle a refugee
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: in the United States. They get free health care, free education,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: free housing, free food, and they get cash welfare. That
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: argument has unfortunately– and it speaks very poorly of America–
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: been very powerful over a long time. I hope to
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: be wrong here, but there's power here. So I would
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: say just a couple of things that the way to
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: win this fight is, one, take it big, make it
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: about the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, where Joe Biden
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: and Democrats have the high side of that argument. Two,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: use veterans as spokespeople here. The most powerful people, and
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: I think it's what has driven some of those numbers
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: and actually hurt Biden in sort of the coverage of
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: the withdrawal was veterans talking about the people who were
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: being left behind by this, right? People who fought with Americans,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: people who saved American lives, people who were putting their
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: lives at risk to fight for democracy or as interpreters
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: or in civil society or whatever else. And then when
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: these Afghan families get to these communities, and this was
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: a suggestion that Ben and Tommy had on Pod Save
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: the World, which is do a whole bunch of local
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: media around it or social media around it. Tell those
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: individual stories so that people know who they are. No
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: one loves to fill a vacuum like, right-wing propaganda. And
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: so we have to fill up with very strong, proactive
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: messaging about this. And there should be, you know, hopefully
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: some paid efforts where you're advertising about who these people
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: are and how bringing these people who fought with us,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: who saved American lives to our country enriches all of us.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: And because otherwise we will lose this argument. Yeah.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: And the, and the other reason that's important is if
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: you look at, if you look at polls, people are Democrats, independents,
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: and Republicans far more supportive of resettling Afghan refugees here
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: than they were of even resettling Syrian refugees back in
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: 2015 when that was a big issue. And so you say, OK,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: why is there more support for Afghan refugees? Perhaps it's
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: because they haven't, you know, effectively demagogued it just yet.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: It's also because the coverage of the last few weeks
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: of Afghanistan, there were a lot of Republicans criticizing Joe
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Biden for abandoning our Afghan allies. And that broke through.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: And so some of these same Republicans and independents are saying, yes,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: we want Afghan allies who helped us to be resettled.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I think where Republicans like Stephen Miller are going to
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: go next is they're going to start saying, these refugees
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: that we're resettling, they weren't helping us. They weren't translators.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: These were random, unvetted Afghans who just got on the
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: plane and came here and they didn't help us in
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: the war effort. In fact, maybe some of them were
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: against us. And it's going to maybe not be based
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: in reality at all, or maybe some of it will
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: be because just it was very chaotic and a lot
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: of people got on planes. Who knows? But that's where
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: they're going to go. Um, and so I do think
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: that's why it's so important for what Ben and Tommy
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: suggested that, that when we resettle Afghan refugees, that we
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: tell their stories, then we have veterans tell those stories
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: as well for how these people help them in battle.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: Because I think that because Republicans are going to have
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: a narrative about this, that's going to be, uh, a
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: lot trickier and a lot tougher, um, than it has
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: been so far, at least, uh, in the mainstream Republican party. Um,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: one last thing we should talk about before we bring
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: in Melissa to talk about Texas, uh, president Biden will
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: be Diving into this month of fun with the worst
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: poll numbers of his presidency, 530. his average approval rating
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: at 45% with 49% disapproving. That's underwater for the first
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: time since he took office. What specifically do you think
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: is driving those poll numbers and how could they affect
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: what will happen in Congress this September?
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Well, Joe Biden has been in a absolutely miserable bad
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: news vortex, right? Which is, it's not like, obviously the
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: news about Afghanistan has been just, and the coverage has
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: been very anti-Biden, right? But it's chaos. You have hurricanes,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: you have forest fires, and perhaps most importantly of all,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: you have sort of resurgence of pandemic politics as kids,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: just as kids are returning to school, the Delta variant,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: people canceling summer plans. It's all bad. And so just imagine,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: and In a world of social media, Facebook in particular,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: people no longer opt into bad news. It used to
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: be you have to choose in the old days to
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: watch your local news or read your newspaper and get
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: all the bad news. Now, you're just looking at your phone.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: You're trying to check out your cousin's new baby or
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: find out what your high school friends are up to.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: It's like bad news, bad news, bad news, bad news.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: It is compounding. And so then a pollster calls you
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: and is like, hey, do you approve of the job
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden's doing? And you're like, what the fuck are
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: you talking about? Look at this, right? And so the
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: way this could affect legislation is he has less political
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: capital with Democrats. He is less feared by Republicans. And
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: it makes a very hard situation harder. And The American
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Action Network, which is a pretty gross right-wing super PAC
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: affiliated with Kevin McCarthy, they put out a poll which
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: showed that in seven battleground districts, Joe Biden is underwater,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: which is also– it's a poll. Skeptical. The people doing
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: the poll– Pretty sketchy. But if Joe Biden is underwater nationally,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: he's underwater in battleground districts. It's just math, right? And
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: so then sometimes those members start to get a little
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: iffy and they're like, oh my goodness, I got to
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: find a way to distance myself from Joe Biden. I
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: hear he's unpopular and maybe I will follow Joe Manchin
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: off a cliff or something like that. And that's where
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: this thing gets really, really precarious.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Well, you made a case in Messagebox this week that
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: Democrats with tough midterm races should run towards Biden and
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: not away from him. Why do you think that is?
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, it seems pretty simple, although it runs counter
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: to all political conventional wisdom of the last few decades.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Midterm performance is correlated with presidential approval. So if Joe
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Biden is popular, Democrats have a better chance of keeping
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: their majorities. If Joe Biden is unpopular, then we're more
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: likely to lose. And so how do we make Joe
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Biden more popular? I don't know. What if we passed
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: a really popular agenda, right? That would be good. And,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: you know, you look at some of this polling, while
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: there's definitely been, Biden has taken a hit with independents.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: And I think getting some of those people back is
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: going to be somewhat complicated. But he's also taken a
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: hit with Democrats, right? 14 points in a recent Navigator poll.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: You know how you get those people back? Pass a
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: bunch of things that Democrats like. But you know what
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: would be, so we're sort of like in this political
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: choose your own adventure. Like we can either in the
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: next like six to eight weeks pass a really popular
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: bill with the United Party and a resurgent Biden, or
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: being in a giant fucking fail-filled mess where the party's divided.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: And because of the way sort of political narratives have
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: so much power now is that when Democrats start shitting
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: on the president, it's compounding. So it's like, you have
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: bad news. Bad news affects the polls. Now there are
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: a bunch of stories about those bad polls. That's more
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: bad news. And then there's a bunch of stories about
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: how Democrats are running from Biden. That's more bad news.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: And it compounds and compounds and compounds. So we have
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: to sort of find a circuit breaker and embrace them.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Like every strategy that every vulnerable Democrat should have is
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: How can I make Joe Biden more popular? Because if
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: I make Joe Biden more popular, I have a better
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: chance of winning.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: What would you be doing to help turn these numbers
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: around if you were in the White House? Obviously, substantively, right,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: I think the strategy from the get-go in this administration
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: was fix the pandemic, fix the economy, and that's our
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: best chance to be politically successful. I still think that holds.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: So one way to help fix the economy is to
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: pass this economic plan, right? It's a long-term economic plan,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: but it will still have effects– you know, in the
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: next few years. So that's super important from a communication standpoint.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: Is there anything you'd be doing differently?
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's differently, but before I get
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: to like what Jen Psaki or Kate Bedingfield or Ron
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Klain should be doing right now, Joe Biden himself, there
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: is like, we all have agency here too, right? Joe
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Biden's in a bad news vortex. There's really a lot
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: of good news out there. We can all be sharing
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: that news.
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: Right?
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Like Joe Biden today gave a really important speech on vaccines.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but would that get as many likes and retweets?
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Well, that's the, that's the, we're not, we're not looking.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: I'm looking for some, I'm looking for some, looking for
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: some retweets there. Looking for the RTs.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: It's not, it depends. Are you trying to persuade your
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: social network?
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: No, I'm just trying to be angry online. Just trying
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: to yell at reporters.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Twitter fame.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Twitter fame.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for clout.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Looking for clout.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Are you trying to be a neo-Crescentine or are you
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: just trying to like help Joe Biden? Try to help
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, like share some positive news. But I think
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: for the White House, like Joe Biden always used to say,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: compare me, don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: to the alternative. So what I would do, and that's
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: maybe what is leading into this debt ceiling strategy is,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: go pick a big fight with Republicans.
• 35:15
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Go paint a picture about, yeah, you may not love
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: how the pandemic's going. You may not be super happy
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: with Afghanistan. But you know what? Look at these people
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: over here, right? abortion bans, vaccine disinfo and COVID truthing, insurrection. Oh,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: they also want to sink the economy so they can
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: cut Medicare and Social Security, pay for tax cuts for
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the rich. Look at those people. I don't look so
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: bad right now either, do I?
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: So I think there's maybe time to like, obviously that
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: comes at the expense of some unity messaging, but it
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: might be time to take the gloves off and start
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: having a more contrastive message.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: I think it's about a contrast and it's also about
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: a choice, right? Like I think, I think the As
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: we're recording, the president's going to give a speech about
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: COVID later today on Thursday. I think that's a great start.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: He should fight for a plan that gives some people
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: some hope that this can end. There hasn't been a
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: lot of that. even public health experts, even some in
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: the administration, haven't been so hopeful about that. I think
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: the president's job is to show some hope here. Boosters,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: vaccine requirements, mask requirements, thresholds for when and how we
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: get back to normal. And again, that should be contrasted
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: with Republicans who want to keep the country sick and
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: poor by infecting everyone and holding back the economy. I
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: think he has to make an argument for his economic
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: plan that puts Democrats on the side of families and
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: small businesses and Republicans on the side of the 1%
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and big corporations. They're for spending more money and sacrificing
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: more lives on forever wars. We're for ending those wars
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: so that we can invest in American families and jobs
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: and small businesses. They want to create a country where
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: only right wing extremists get to vote and actually get
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: to enforce the law. And, you know, we're for a
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: country where everyone has a voice and everyone's protected under
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: the law, right? Like, Everything has to be here's what
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: we're going to do. Here's what they're going to do.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: And I do think there's a way while doing that
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: to sort of make sure that you you can still talk.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: You don't have to be like just attacking Republicans all
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: the time. It's a choice. There are two different directions
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: for the country. This is where Joe Biden and the
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: Democrats want to take the country. And this is where
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: Republicans want to take the country. And that has to
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: be that has to be every day that message.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: And this is where the majority of the people want, right?
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: That's the thing, right? It's like, oh, it's 50-50. No,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: it's 60-40, right? And Joe Biden is fighting, and Republicans
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: are representing a shrinking minority. These are extreme positions that
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: are out of touch with the American public and with
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: American values.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: And again, we were in this position in the summer
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: of 2011. And when Barack Obama was dealing with the
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: debt ceiling, and he had horrible poll numbers, and The
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: way he got out of it was to start delivering
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: a message that contrasted what he was doing for the
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: country versus what the Republicans and then ultimately Mitt Romney
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: wanted to do to the country. And by having that
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: message and having a sharp economic message that divided, here's
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: what the Democrats want to do and here's what the
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Republicans want to do. That's when he started get his
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: poll number started going back up and he started getting
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: back in the game. So it's, you know.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: The one last thing I'd say about this is the
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: place where– there are two places to have this fight.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: And I imagine– I'm sure this has been on a
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: whiteboard somewhere in Ron Klain's office for a very long time.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: And he's like, thank you. Captain Obvious saves America over here.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: But his– Hey, he.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: Can tweet it. Tweet it out to the public. Show
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: us what's on the whiteboard, Ron.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: That's right, is one is on the debt ceiling and
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the CR and the supplemental. Like that's going to be
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: a fight because you need Republicans for it. The problem
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: with the budget bill is it's all about Democrats. The
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: press has already baked in Republican opposition. So, and it's
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: not even, I'm not even saying they're wrong about this,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: but it's just the coverage about fights between Democrats over
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: specific policies, Joe Manchin, et cetera. And the other one
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I think legitimately, and I've become more and more sort
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: of radicalized this idea is that Democrats should run aggressively
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: on vaccine mandates.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: You know, as we started recording, news broke that one
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: of the things that Biden's going to announce today is
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: that any hospital that receives Medicare or Medicaid funding is
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: going to have to vaccinate their staff. There's going to
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: be a vaccine requirement for their staff, which is most
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: hospitals in the country. So that's great news. OK, when
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: we come back, NYU law professor Melissa Murray joins to
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: talk about the Supreme Court's decision that has allowed the
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: state of Texas to effectively ban abortion. All right, let's
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: talk about what's next in the legal battle to protect
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: reproductive rights. Last week, the Supreme Court released a 5-4
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: decision at around midnight in which the conservative majority refused
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: to block a Texas law that effectively bans abortion by
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: allowing any citizen to sue any other citizen for $ 10, 000
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: if they're found aiding or abetting an abortion after six weeks,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: with no exception for rape or incest. The Wall Street
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Journal reported yesterday that the Biden administration's Justice Department is
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: preparing to sue Texas over the law as early as today.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: Here to help us make sense of this madness and
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: talk about what can be done is Melissa Murray. a
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: law professor at NYU, co-host of the Strict Scrutiny podcast,
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: and a good friend of this podcast. Thanks for coming back.
• 40:21
  Speaker 6: Thanks for having me.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: So the Texas law essentially places a bounty on any
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: medical provider, friend, family member, even Uber driver who helps
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: someone get an abortion. And aside from being both cruel
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: and crazy, it seems as if the law was written
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: this way specifically to avoid getting struck down as unconstitutional. Melissa,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: can you talk about the legal strategy behind the Texas
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: law and how the majority's decision basically rewarded that strategy?
• 40:49
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 40:50
  Speaker 7: So this law is both incredibly cynical and incredibly canny.
• 40:55
  Speaker 7: So technically, when you have an abortion restriction, Generally, it
• 41:00
  Speaker 7: is the state that enforces it. And so Roe versus Wade,
• 41:04
  Speaker 7: for example, involved Jane Roe, the petitioner, the woman who
• 41:07
  Speaker 7: is seeking an abortion. And Wade was Henry Wade, the
• 41:11
  Speaker 7: Dallas district attorney who was charged with enforcing the law.
• 41:13
  Speaker 7: And that's typically how most laws work. If you want
• 41:17
  Speaker 7: to challenge their constitutionality, you will file suit against the
• 41:21
  Speaker 7: state actor who's charged with administering it or enforcing it. Here, however, though,
• 41:27
  Speaker 7: The state is absolutely prohibited from enforcing this law. It
• 41:31
  Speaker 7: actually says that in the text of the law. No
• 41:33
  Speaker 7: state official can enforce it. And instead, what Texas has
• 41:36
  Speaker 7: done is deputized private citizens to enforce it. So it
• 41:40
  Speaker 7: gives each private citizen, anyone in Texas, a private right
• 41:44
  Speaker 7: of action to file a civil suit against a provider
• 41:48
  Speaker 7: for providing an abortion or for someone who has, quote unquote,
• 41:52
  Speaker 7: aided or abetted someone in seeking an abortion or in
• 41:55
  Speaker 7: performing an abortion. And It was done purposefully because the
• 41:59
  Speaker 7: name of the game here is basically allowing the law
• 42:03
  Speaker 7: to go into effect. Generally, when you have these abortion restrictions,
• 42:06
  Speaker 7: and there are lots of these heartbeat laws that have
• 42:08
  Speaker 7: been tried and they failed, they failed because reproductive rights
• 42:11
  Speaker 7: groups and abortion providers immediately file suit challenging the constitutionality
• 42:15
  Speaker 7: of the law. And a federal court will typically enjoin
• 42:20
  Speaker 7: the state from enforcing the law while that litigation on
• 42:23
  Speaker 7: the constitutionality of the statute is pending. Here, however, because
• 42:27
  Speaker 7: you don't have a state official charged with enforcing it
• 42:30
  Speaker 7: to sue, you can't get a pre-enforcement challenge or a
• 42:34
  Speaker 7: pre-enforcement injunction. And that's basically what happened at the Supreme
• 42:37
  Speaker 7: Court last Wednesday when the court finally weighed in saying
• 42:42
  Speaker 7: that there were procedural idiosyncrasies here that were better to
• 42:47
  Speaker 7: be resolved going forward by allowing the law to go
• 42:49
  Speaker 7: into effect, having someone file suit against some other person
• 42:54
  Speaker 7: and then letting it play out. So it doesn't mean
• 42:56
  Speaker 7: we will not get a challenge to the constitutionality of
• 42:59
  Speaker 7: this law, but it means that the law goes into
• 43:01
  Speaker 7: effect in Texas. And that actually is a victory for
• 43:04
  Speaker 7: Texas legislators because once those clinics shut down because they
• 43:08
  Speaker 7: fear violating this law and risking the bankrupting bounty that
• 43:14
  Speaker 7: is placed on those who are found to be in
• 43:17
  Speaker 7: violation of this law, They're unlikely to reopen again, even
• 43:21
  Speaker 7: if the law is later invalidated by the Supreme Court
• 43:25
  Speaker 7: or any federal court going forward. And we saw that
• 43:29
  Speaker 7: in 2016 with Whole Women's Health versus Hellerstedt. There, there
• 43:32
  Speaker 7: was an admitting privileges law that was allowed to go
• 43:35
  Speaker 7: into effect in 2013, although the law three years later
• 43:38
  Speaker 7: was declared unconstitutional. Texas went from having 42 abortion provider
• 43:43
  Speaker 7: clinics to having just 19, and they did not reopen again.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: So the five justices in the majority in an unsigned
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: opinion basically said, the Texas gambit worked. We can't do
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: anything about this. There's serious issues of constitutionality. There's, I think,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: a sentence like that in there, but we're not going
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: to do anything about this. If the four justices who
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: oppose this, including the three liberals and Roberts, somehow got
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: Kavanaugh on board or Barrett on board, what would the
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: best legal argument have been for the court to say,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: we're actually going to block this?
• 44:19
  Speaker 7: So I think one legal argument would have been just
• 44:22
  Speaker 7: the irregularity of allowing a law with such obvious substantive
• 44:26
  Speaker 7: implications and such clear constitutional questions from going into effect
• 44:31
  Speaker 7: and issuing a decision on the shadow docket. So The
• 44:33
  Speaker 7: Chief Justice laid this out. As you know, he is
• 44:37
  Speaker 7: no friend of abortion rights. I think it is fair
• 44:40
  Speaker 7: to say he is incredibly skeptical of abortion rights, but
• 44:43
  Speaker 7: he is very much concerned with the court's institutional legitimacy
• 44:47
  Speaker 7: and perhaps is the most stalwart steward of the court's legitimacy.
• 44:51
  Speaker 7: And he proposed simply keeping in place the status quo.
• 44:55
  Speaker 7: You can have this law, you can have a challenge
• 44:57
  Speaker 7: on the constitutionality of this law, and just as we
• 44:59
  Speaker 7: would In almost any other circumstance, we would stay the
• 45:04
  Speaker 7: enforcement of this law. We would block the law from
• 45:06
  Speaker 7: going into effect while that challenge to its constitutionality proceeded.
• 45:10
  Speaker 7: That's what we typically did in all of these other cases.
• 45:14
  Speaker 7: But the majority here said, well, there are all of
• 45:16
  Speaker 7: these procedural irregularities. We don't have a state official enforcing
• 45:21
  Speaker 7: this law, so there's no state defendant here that we
• 45:23
  Speaker 7: can enjoin. Instead, we're probably going to have to wait
• 45:27
  Speaker 7: and see if some private citizen sues some other person
• 45:29
  Speaker 7: for violating this law. And then we can actually get
• 45:32
  Speaker 7: to the bones of litigating its constitutionality. But the chief
• 45:36
  Speaker 7: justice said we can just do this the way we've
• 45:38
  Speaker 7: always done it.
• 45:38
  Speaker 6: And I think that's probably right.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Dan, the reaction from Republican politicians to the ruling has
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: been either nonexistent or uncharacteristically muted. Does that suggest to
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: you that maybe they don't think turning their voters into
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: vigilante bounty hunters is the best political move?
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: I guess you would say muted if you don't count
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: the seven Republican states looking to pass copycat laws, which
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: all happen to be helmed by– or most of them
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: happen to be helmed by Republicans with their eye on
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: the 2024 nomination. Look, I think Democrats should be very
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: aggressive about this. And that is not– although it's changed recently,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: that has not been the natural state of being for
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Democrats on the issue of abortion. I think in sort
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: of the collective Democratic mind, we think this is a
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: 50-50 issue. and that the anti-choice arguments animate their base
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: more than the pro-choice arguments animate ours, that is completely
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: not true and not supported by any measure of polling.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Support for Roe v. Wade has been growing over time,
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: and support for overturning has been shrinking. In the Gallup
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: poll taken this year, it's 58 for keeping it, 32
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: for eliminating it. So think about that. The Republicans have
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: chosen the 32-side issue of a 58-32 issue, And what
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I think we have to do here is make every
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: single Republican in the country own the Texas law. This
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: is the future that Republicans want. Not just Texas Republicans,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: all Republicans. And that is evidenced by potential presidential candidates
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: supporting it. It's evidenced by their silence on this matter.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: And if Republicans can make Democrats, with a pretty disturbing
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: amount of effectiveness, own– defund the police, a relatively ambiguous
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: slogan adopted by activists that almost no Democrat in the
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: country ran on, then we have to be able to
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: make Republicans own a law passed by the largest Republican
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: state in the country. And so I think we should
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: be super aggressive about it. We need to ascribe this
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: position to every Republican, because if we do not, the
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: only way that we are going to, Democrats can be
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: able to protect reproductive rights, voting rights, civil rights, all rights,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: in a world in which we do not feel that
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: the the Supreme Court can play that role is through
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: brute political forces, to making them pay a political price
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: for doing these things. And that will only happen if
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: we're aggressive about it.
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: I would also say that that 32% that wants to
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: ban abortion, that's a law that bans abortion, nevermind turning
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: voters into bounty hunters. I would imagine that would test
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: even lower than 32%.
• 48:01
  Speaker 6: So can I inject something?
• 48:02
  Speaker 7: I think the point about the political polarization is really
• 48:06
  Speaker 7: spot on. But let me add a little historical context
• 48:09
  Speaker 7: to this. Like Roe versus Wade is decided in 1973
• 48:13
  Speaker 7: by a 7-2 majority of the Supreme Court with Harry Blackmun,
• 48:16
  Speaker 7: a Republican nominee, writing the majority opinion. And a number
• 48:20
  Speaker 7: of Republicans joined that opinion. Roe wasn't immediately controversial. Reproductive
• 48:25
  Speaker 7: rights were not immediately controversial with Republicans. I can go
• 48:29
  Speaker 7: back and tell you that Ronald Reagan, the Republican god,
• 48:34
  Speaker 7: was the person who, as governor of California, passed California's
• 48:38
  Speaker 7: Therapeutic Abortion Act, which liberalized abortion access in that state.
• 48:42
  Speaker 7: Is this your king? And then there's George H.W. Bush, who,
• 48:47
  Speaker 7: as a congressman from Midland, championed the expansion of family
• 48:51
  Speaker 7: planning in So much so that he was known on
• 48:54
  Speaker 7: the floor of the House as Rubber's Bush because he
• 48:57
  Speaker 7: was so supportive of reproductive rights. His father, Senator Prescott Bush,
• 49:02
  Speaker 7: was a chairman of the Planned Parenthood League of Connecticut.
• 49:05
  Speaker 7: So this idea that Republicans have always been against reproductive rights,
• 49:09
  Speaker 7: that is not the case at all. There was bipartisan
• 49:12
  Speaker 7: support for reproductive rights. Abortion becomes a wedge issue in
• 49:16
  Speaker 7: the late 1970s, early 1980s as sort of a mirrorless
• 49:20
  Speaker 7: of the Southern strategy whereby segregation becomes a way to
• 49:23
  Speaker 7: peel off Democrats in the South. They look to abortion
• 49:27
  Speaker 7: to do that same thing in the upper Midwest with
• 49:29
  Speaker 7: Catholics and then in the South with Christian evangelicals. And
• 49:32
  Speaker 7: it's incredibly effective. It's incredibly canny. It is a strategy
• 49:35
  Speaker 7: of Lee Atwater. And so do not let anyone tell
• 49:38
  Speaker 7: you that there has always been this widespread Republican antipathy
• 49:41
  Speaker 7: for reproductive rights. That is not the case. Title 10...
• 49:45
  Speaker 7: was expanded by Richard Nixon, the most Republican of Republican presidents.
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: One more issue where the Republican Party has gone completely
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: extreme to even its own traditions. Melissa, can you talk
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: about the Justice Department's legal options here? On Monday, Merrick
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: Garland said they'd continue to protect those seeking to obtain
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: or provide reproductive health services. I mentioned the reporting from
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: The Wall Street Journal that the DOJ will sue Texas.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Could any of this work?
• 50:12
  Speaker 7: So the first thing that they've announced is that they're
• 50:13
  Speaker 7: going to do more rigorous enforcement of the FACE Act,
• 50:16
  Speaker 7: which allows individuals seeking abortion services free access to clinic entrances,
• 50:21
  Speaker 7: and it provides for enforcement of criminal and civil penalties
• 50:24
  Speaker 7: against those who harass them. It's been spottily enforced in
• 50:28
  Speaker 7: the past, so it's great that the administration is taking
• 50:31
  Speaker 7: a more robust position on its enforcement, but Getting into
• 50:35
  Speaker 7: a clinic is not really the issue here. I mean,
• 50:38
  Speaker 7: the issue is that clinics are not providing abortion services
• 50:41
  Speaker 7: because they can't, because they would risk being found in
• 50:44
  Speaker 7: violation of this law and being sued and having to
• 50:46
  Speaker 7: pay the $ 10, 000 bounty plus the attorney's fee. So it
• 50:51
  Speaker 7: is a symbolic gesture, I think, but one that ultimately
• 50:54
  Speaker 7: is not incredibly consequential for reviving or resuscitating abortion access
• 50:59
  Speaker 7: in Texas at this point. Lawrence Tribe, I think, proposed
• 51:03
  Speaker 7: a really novel approach proposal of using the Ku Klux
• 51:06
  Speaker 7: Klan Act, which was a Reconstruction-era statute that was intended
• 51:11
  Speaker 7: to provide penalties against private actors who, under color of
• 51:16
  Speaker 7: state law, tried to abridge the civil rights of newly
• 51:19
  Speaker 7: freed African Americans.
• 51:20
  Speaker 6: And you could.
• 51:21
  Speaker 7: Expand that perhaps to apply to those private vigilantes in
• 51:26
  Speaker 7: Texas who are restricting the rights of Texas women and
• 51:31
  Speaker 7: those who try to help them.
• 51:32
  Speaker 6: So that's, I think, a novel approach.
• 51:35
  Speaker 7: The administration has said that they will have a press
• 51:38
  Speaker 7: conference where they'll lay out their strategy. I'm really eager
• 51:41
  Speaker 7: to hear what this looks like because I think a
• 51:43
  Speaker 7: lot of the legal strategy is really going to have
• 51:46
  Speaker 7: to deal with the incredibly devilish enforcement mechanism and the
• 51:51
  Speaker 7: way that they have crafted this law purposefully to avoid
• 51:55
  Speaker 7: federal court review and indeed any kind of review by
• 51:59
  Speaker 7: delegating the enforcement of the statute to private citizens. So
• 52:03
  Speaker 7: I am absolutely on tenor hooks waiting to hear what
• 52:06
  Speaker 7: they have to say because I think this is going
• 52:08
  Speaker 7: to have to be a really novel solution and maybe
• 52:11
  Speaker 7: it should be. Texas has clearly shown that it's willing
• 52:14
  Speaker 7: to push the envelope here to restrict abortion and maybe
• 52:18
  Speaker 7: that requires a commensurate response from the administration.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Well, so what would DOJ suing Texas look like? What
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: would the argument there be?
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Unclear.
• 52:27
  Speaker 7: And they've been very cagey about what the particulars of
• 52:30
  Speaker 7: that might be. You know, they can obviously do things
• 52:33
  Speaker 7: like withhold federal funding. Perhaps they might figure out a
• 52:36
  Speaker 7: way for federal properties like Air Force bases or.
• 52:39
  Speaker 6: Military hospitals or whatnot.
• 52:41
  Speaker 7: To provide abortion services, although that raises the question of
• 52:45
  Speaker 7: the Hyde Amendment, which is an appropriations rider that prevents
• 52:48
  Speaker 7: the use of federal monies for abortion.
• 52:50
  Speaker 6: So it may not.
• 52:51
  Speaker 7: Necessarily be the case that they are funding in clear
• 52:55
  Speaker 7: dollars abortion, but even the use, I think, of federal
• 52:57
  Speaker 7: property might be considered a way of subsidizing abortion, and
• 53:01
  Speaker 7: that might be deemed a violation of.
• 53:03
  Speaker 6: The Hyde Amendment.
• 53:04
  Speaker 7: So it's not clear. But Again, I think this is
• 53:08
  Speaker 7: an opportunity to lawyer in the most fearless and innovative
• 53:13
  Speaker 7: way possible. And I think those who are against abortion
• 53:17
  Speaker 7: have certainly taken it to the mattresses. And maybe it's
• 53:20
  Speaker 7: time for those who favor reproductive rights to do the same.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: Dan, what are the chances that Congress can pass a
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: legislative remedy here?
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Well, Speaker Pelosi has said that she will hold a
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: vote on the Women's Health Protection Act, which would I
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: think as described– it's talked about as codifying Roe. I
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: think it's a little more complicated than that, but it
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: would certainly limit the ability of states like Texas to
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: infringe upon the rights that are identified in Roe and
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: in another Supreme Court decision, KCV Planned Parenthood. The challenge here,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: as with all things, is it's subject to a filibuster.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: I know, like all things. But even if we could
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: get the filibuster– overturned. There are very real questions about
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: whether there are 50 Democratic votes for this in the Senate.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: And it's not just Joe Manchin. It's also potentially Bob Casey,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: the senator from Pennsylvania, whose father is the Casey in
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: the Casey v. Planned Parenthood case that I mentioned earlier.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: And so I absolutely think Democrats, even if it is
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: a no, we know we're going to lose this vote.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: I think Democrats should vote on it. There are also
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: two Republican senators in Susan Collins, I know also Ugg,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski, who could potentially be yeses on this, but
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: we should call the issue, have the vote, and raise
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: the salience of the issue nationally and show that Democrats
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: are doing everything they can to protect reproductive rights. I
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: think it's the right thing to do morally and the
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: right thing to do politically. Melissa?
• 54:45
  Speaker 7: So I think that's exactly right as a political strategy.
• 54:48
  Speaker 7: I think it's likely to be successful as a legal strategy.
• 54:51
  Speaker 7: So yes, if you could get through the filibuster, if
• 54:54
  Speaker 7: you could get through the Senate, then you're clearly going
• 54:57
  Speaker 7: to have someone challenge this as an impermissible use of
• 55:01
  Speaker 7: Congress's authority under the Commerce Clause, which is probably the
• 55:04
  Speaker 7: most likely avenue of constitutional authority for passing a law
• 55:07
  Speaker 7: like this.
• 55:08
  Speaker 6: And where does that go?
• 55:09
  Speaker 7: It goes right to your six to three majority on
• 55:12
  Speaker 7: the Supreme Court, where you have Samuel Alito, who's been
• 55:16
  Speaker 7: very clear about his antipathy for reproductive rights. Clarence Thomas,
• 55:20
  Speaker 7: who doesn't believe that the right to reproductive freedom exists
• 55:23
  Speaker 7: in the Constitution. Neil Gorsuch, also a skeptic. And then
• 55:27
  Speaker 7: Brett Kavanaugh, Not clear, but seems skeptical. Amy Coney Barrett,
• 55:31
  Speaker 7: her writings as a law professor suggest skepticism, if not antipathy.
• 55:35
  Speaker 7: And Chief Justice Roberts, who we're the only way to
• 55:38
  Speaker 7: kind of reel him in is in whether or not
• 55:40
  Speaker 7: this law makes the court look bad. And they don't
• 55:44
  Speaker 7: even need his vote to have a majority here. So, yes,
• 55:48
  Speaker 7: as a political matter. That makes a lot of sense.
• 55:51
  Speaker 7: And if it gets people to the polls and thinking
• 55:53
  Speaker 7: about the Supreme Court and reproductive rights and how all
• 55:56
  Speaker 7: of these things are intertwined with voting rights and everything else,
• 55:58
  Speaker 7: then I say go for it. But if that law
• 56:01
  Speaker 7: is passed, it is going to be a dead letter
• 56:03
  Speaker 7: at the six to three conservative supermajority.
• 56:05
  Speaker 6: At the court.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Ah, ah, but.
• 56:08
  Speaker 7: But.
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: But.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: What if we expand the court and add four justices?
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Would that help matters?
• 56:14
  Speaker 7: Okay.
• 56:14
  Speaker 6: Now you've just blown my mind. I don't even, I
• 56:16
  Speaker 6: don't even know what to.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: Say to that. So back to the, back to the
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: mansion filibuster question.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm not saying it's an easy path, John, but
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: I just want to, I want to widen the aperture
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: of possibility here.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: We're always back to the cul-de-sac, the mansion cul-de-sac. Melissa,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: I was going to ask if you just sort of
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: raise this, you know, sort of what, what's next in
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: terms of the Supreme court's role, like, Is there a
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: chance they'll revisit the Texas law and finally weigh in
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: on the constitutionality? Can this tell us anything about what
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: they'll do about the Mississippi ban when they hear the
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: case next term? Like, I guess what I'm trying to
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: ask is, do you think there is any chance or
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: hope that the decision where they said, okay, we don't
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: want to weigh in on the constitutionality here, and this
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: is all procedural, morphs into something later where they say, okay,
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: now we're going to weigh in on the constitutionality, and
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: in fact, it is not constitutional? So.
• 57:06
  Speaker 7: I think you need to get to the point where
• 57:08
  Speaker 7: you have a lawsuit brought by a private individual against
• 57:11
  Speaker 7: someone who has performed an abortion or has helped someone
• 57:14
  Speaker 7: to obtain an abortion or perform an abortion. And then
• 57:17
  Speaker 7: that will begin the process of wending this through either
• 57:19
  Speaker 7: the state courts, probably, and then on to the Supreme Court.
• 57:22
  Speaker 6: That could take a long time.
• 57:23
  Speaker 7: They will most likely get to the current abortion challenge
• 57:27
  Speaker 7: that's before them, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which
• 57:32
  Speaker 7: is going to be argued in this upcoming term, October
• 57:36
  Speaker 7: term 2021. And it is a challenge to Mississippi's heartbeat law,
• 57:39
  Speaker 7: which prohibits abortion at 15 weeks. So really bad, but
• 57:44
  Speaker 7: less bad than the Texas law in a lot of ways.
• 57:47
  Speaker 7: And I think what we saw in the court's opinion,
• 57:50
  Speaker 7: although it was just a procedural opinion, quote unquote, is
• 57:54
  Speaker 7: a harbinger of what we're likely to see. I mean,
• 57:56
  Speaker 7: the fact that a majority of the court allowed a
• 58:00
  Speaker 7: law that clearly violates existing constitutional precedents and includes Roe,
• 58:04
  Speaker 7: includes Planned Parenthood versus Casey to go into effect suggests
• 58:08
  Speaker 7: that there is not a great deal of respect for
• 58:12
  Speaker 7: the idea of a right to an abortion on this court. So,
• 58:15
  Speaker 7: you know, I don't know what will happen in Dobbs.
• 58:17
  Speaker 7: It could be the case that the chief justice joins
• 58:20
  Speaker 7: the conservatives to make six, but joins them for the
• 58:24
  Speaker 7: purpose of being able to keep the opinion for himself
• 58:27
  Speaker 7: to write. And he writes a much narrower opinion than
• 58:30
  Speaker 7: the rest of the conservatives might like, but one that
• 58:33
  Speaker 7: perhaps does away with the whole question of viability as
• 58:36
  Speaker 7: a salient marker in the court's abortion jurisprudence, which then
• 58:40
  Speaker 7: kicks the question of these heartbeat laws back to the states.
• 58:43
  Speaker 7: And then we're dealing again with Is 15 weeks OK?
• 58:46
  Speaker 7: Is 12 weeks OK? Six weeks OK? And maybe that
• 58:48
  Speaker 7: is when you get this Texas law percolating up to
• 58:51
  Speaker 7: the court at that point.
• 58:52
  Speaker 6: But it might take a long time.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: And the idea that the liberals and Roberts might get
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: Kavanaugh on their side is remote.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: So, I mean, unclear.
• 59:03
  Speaker 7: What we know statistically is that Justice Kavanaugh is more
• 59:06
  Speaker 7: likely to vote with the chief justice than.
• 59:08
  Speaker 6: Any other justice.
• 59:10
  Speaker 7: You know, this is someone who before his confirmation hearing
• 59:14
  Speaker 7: went off the rails with questions of sexual assault was
• 59:17
  Speaker 7: getting a lot of fire, including from me. on his
• 59:20
  Speaker 7: stance on abortion. So maybe he wants to take a
• 59:24
  Speaker 7: wider view of this, focus on a narrower opinion. You
• 59:27
  Speaker 7: could see something like that. But again, I think this
• 59:32
  Speaker 7: is a question, to Dan's point, that really has to
• 59:35
  Speaker 7: be kicked back to politics. The courts are not going
• 59:37
  Speaker 7: to save you here.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, on that note, for both of you,
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: last question, are there any other legal or political strategies
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: we haven't talked about that could help protect reproductive rights
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: in Texas and in other red states that will certainly
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: try to pass similar laws?
• 59:56
  Speaker 7: So again, Congress has the power of the purse. You know,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 7: at least one, you may not necessarily tie this to
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 7: liberalizing abortion access, but you could say like all of
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 7: these states that are so exercised to restrict abortion in
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 7: the name of of promoting women's health, also have some
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 7: of the worst maternal mortality and morbidity rates and infant
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 7: mortality rates in the country. So maybe as part of it,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 7: if you're going to restrict abortion, you also have to
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 7: channel some of the federal dollars that you get into
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 7: programs that actually ameliorate and provide prenatal care to pregnant women.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 7: I mean, if you're going to be pro-life, be pro-life
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 7: for the whole life. And the whole life starts with
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 7: the woman who is bearing the child. And then once
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 7: the child is born, expanding Medicaid to include the child,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 7: members of that child's family. I mean, that could be
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 7: something that is done. I mean, if you just want
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 7: to sort of address this as an issue that is
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 7: about health, because that's what they talk about. They talk
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 7: about these restrictions as health measures.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 6: They're clearly not.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 7: But the government, I think, the federal government could think
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 7: about these as like, let's tie this actually to proving
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 7: better health outcomes. You don't get this if you just
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 7: restrict abortion. You have to do these other things too.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: Interesting. Dan?
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, none of these things are particularly satisfying, but
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: I would at least first note that as we think
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: about the midterms, our friends at Data for Progress did
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: a poll which showed that The context of the Texas
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: abortion ban increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters by 8%. So
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: that's a further argument for talking about it. But in
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: the long run, the reason these laws exist, despite the
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: fact that they're incredibly unpopular, even in the states and
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: when they're being passed, is because Republicans have done the hard,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: monotonous work of building political power at the state level.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: This is why we have to invest in, train, and
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: run candidates. pro-choice women candidates at these state levels and
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: win these offices. Because we had an actual chance to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: take the Texas House in 2020. Had we done that,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: this law could not have passed.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 6: Dan, can I add to that?
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 7: Part of the reason they've been able to consolidate political
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 7: power at the state level is because they have run
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 7: the table on redistricting.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 6: So that's a huge part of this too.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 7: And so This is all inextricably linked to the same
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 7: fights that you all have been covering over voting rights.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 7: And there's no daylight between any of this.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like the best hope here is to
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: get out into the streets and get to the polls
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: and continue to organize and continue to fight for this.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: Because if everyone in the midterms decides they're annoyed or
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: they're tired or they're not sure they want to work
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: as hard as they did in 2020, then it will
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: be a guarantee. that there will be no abortion access
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: in Texas and potentially many, many other states that are
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: controlled by Republicans. So something for everyone to keep in mind.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Professor Melissa Murray, thank you as always for joining us.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: We appreciate it.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 6: Thanks for having me.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: One more thing. You can donate to abortion funds in Texas,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: which help Texans pay for their procedure and get logistical
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: help like a ride to a clinic out of state.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: Visit actblue.com slash donate slash TX funds to donate. Again,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: that's actblue.com slash donate slash TX funds to donate. And
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: you can also find the link in this episode's show notes.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: All right, before we go, we wanted to give you
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: all one last reminder about the California recall on September 14th.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: I'm sure all of you California listeners have already sent
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: in your ballots or at least plan to. But even
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: if you're voting, we're asking you, to get at least
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: five other people to vote as well. And if you
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: happen to run into any of those friends who say,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: why does it matter if Newsom loses? We got you covered.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Republican frontrunner Larry Elder has said and done a lot
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: of wacky shit during his years as a right-wing radio
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: host and even during this campaign. So to help you
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: keep track of it all, we've put together his top
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: five worst quotes in a segment we're calling Elder Abuse.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: All right. Here is number five.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 5: You're on record as calling for the end to the
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 5: minimum wage, saying, quote, the correct minimum wage ought to
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 5: be zero.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: How do you think.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 5: California voters currently earning the minimum wage, which is 13
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 5: to 14 dollars an hour, would react to that?
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: Well, given the indoctrination that people have about the minimum wage,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: they probably would react to it well.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: Dan, do you think Californians would react to a $ 0
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: minimum wage well?
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: Given the indoctrination that people have about getting paid barely
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: enough to live.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: What is this propaganda that's forcing people to want a
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: livable wage? What is wrong with that?
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 5: Yes.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: That's one that, by the way, I didn't know he
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: said that. This is just a great example of how
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: much shit Larry, and I've been paying attention to this race.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: I had no idea he said that about the minimum wage.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: I knew he was like against a minimum wage. I
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: didn't know that he said that the correct one was $ 0.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: I guess we know what percentage of the people currently
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: hosting this podcast did not read my message box on
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: the recall.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: I think I did read your message box on the recall.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: Well, it's in there, but I think you're also on vacation.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: You write a lot. You write a lot these days.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: You're prolific. I know, I know. All right, number four.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: You know, when you look at all these women that
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: have marched, something like two million women, Donald Trump has
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: probably gotten more obese women off the couch and in
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: the streets working out than Michelle Obama did in eight years.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: What the fuck was that quote?
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: Just fuck off fuck off like just disgusting.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not that's just one of the many
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: horrifically sexist things that elder has said about women uh
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: in a 2000 column for capitalism magazine great magazine uh
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: elder said women know less than men about political issues
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: economics and current events he said that uh he reposted
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: an article on his website comparing single mothers on welfare
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: to stray cats According to the L.A. Times, he deleted
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: a tweet that implied women taking part in the Women's
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: March were too unattractive to be sexually assaulted. And according
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: to Media Matters, he endorsed pregnancy discrimination in his book,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: suggesting that working mothers aren't, quote, dedicated and available for, quote,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: all hands on deck commitment to work. What a guy.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: He also likes to refer, has in the past referred
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: to PMS, premenstrual syndrome, as, quote, punish my spouse. Just
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: real charmer all the way around here.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: What a what a joke. What a great joke.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: Number three.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: I'm going to follow the science. I'm going to I
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: don't believe the science suggests that young people should be vaccinated.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: I don't believe the science suggests that young people should
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: have to wear a mask at school. I'm not sure
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: the science is settled on that at all.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Not sure that's not sure that's correct. It's actually the
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: opposite of what he said. But now this is something
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: that Elder could actually enforce as governor.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: Right. Yes, he could on his first day and has promised,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: if he wins this recall, could repeal the vaccine and
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: mask mandates that Newsom put in place earlier this summer. Absolutely.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: So for all the people saying, oh, there's a Democratic supermajority.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: It's only for, you know, all about a year. Who cares?
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: This will send a message to establishment. This would have
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: dramatic effects on schoolchildren, right? That's where this place, like
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: the first place where the mask and vaccine mandates have
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: been most important had been in California public schools. He
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: could undo that.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: Are there other things he could do on his own
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: without the legislature? Cause some people are saying, well, if
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: he gets in, at least we have a democratic, you know,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: super majorities in the legislature and he can't do that
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: much and blah, blah, blah. But he can do a
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: lot of damage, right?
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: Oh, didn't we just go through this for four years?
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Like you can do tremendous damage without ever touching the legislature. Right.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: So yes, that's exactly, that's exactly the point that Senator
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: Padilla made to, uh, to, to Tommy when he was here.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, think about, think about the difference between the
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: types of people that Joe Biden has brought in to, uh,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: manage the pandemic and who Trump had. People he was
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: literally taking off of Newsmax to be an influential position.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: So we could fire important people. The state, we are
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: dealing with forest fires. He is deeply misguided, if you will,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: views about climate change and forest management. He can fire
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: a bunch of people. He can appoint judges.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Right? And we see that's something like people.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: Like, there's a very recent relevant example of the danger
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: of putting an inexperienced celebrity with extreme views in a
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: position of power. Like, full stop. We know what happens.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, try to remember, like, just yesterday. Just try to remember. Okay,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: number two.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: By the way, when you mentioned that the UK was
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: ahead of us, they were. Do you know that the
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: slave owners were compensated? After they lost their quote unquote property,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: the government compensated slave owners.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 6: I didn't know that.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: And so when people talk about reparations, do they really
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: want to have that conversation? Because like it or not,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: slavery was legal. And so their property, their legal property
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: was taken away from them after the Civil War. So
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: You can make an argument that the people that are
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: owed reparations are not only just black people, but also
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: the people whose, quote, property, close quote, was taken away
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: after the end of the Civil War.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: Now, look, that may sound crazy, but I assume it'll
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: be part of Trump's platform in 2024 when he runs again.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: When you say Trump, do you mean the guy who
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: put out the statement in support of Robert E. Lee yesterday?
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think that's, yeah, he was laying down
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: a marker there that he's doing reparations for slave owners
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: when he, yeah, they'll be in the RNC platform in 2024. So,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: all right. And the number one, maybe most damaging thing
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: that Larry Elder has said. Let's listen.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: And God forbid Governor Elder should replace Dianne Feinstein that
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: nobody's seen in weeks. And I'm told she's in worse
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: mental condition than Joe Biden. They're afraid I'm going to
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: replace her with a Republican, which I most certainly would do.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: And that would be an earthquake in Washington, D.C.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: Dan is promising that you intend to throw control of
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: the U.S. Senate to Republicans if you get the chance.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: the wisest political strategy in a state with the most
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: Democrats anywhere in the country?
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: On paper, no. It does not seem wise.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: I imagine Gavin Newsom and everyone in his campaign saw
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: that quote and just started jumping up and down celebrating.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: I cannot imagine, I cannot imagine a dumber thing to
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: say in fucking California than promising people that you'll throw
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: control of the Senate to the Republicans.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: Like Trump, I don't want to ascribe... strategy to things
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: that people who just sort of vomit up stupid things do.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: But like there is something like this does get to
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: the core of the whole thing, which is they're trying
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: to fire up Republicans, the small Republican minority in the state,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: because they're betting on Democratic complacency. So yeah, Republicans– like
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: the odds that you get to take the Senate back
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: is going to get a bunch of Republicans off the couch.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: When we say off the couch, we mean walking off
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: the couch to the place where they keep their mail
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: because we mail them the ballot, filling it out, and
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: putting it back. So I do– like there is– this
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: sort of speaks to the whole thing, which is about
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: who can do a better job of firing up their base.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: Ours is much larger than theirs, but if we don't
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: do anything– if people don't vote, then this will work.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And the trouble with the fire up the Republican
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: base strategy is the more you say to fire up
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: the Republican base, the more it does to then hopefully
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: fire up the Democratic base as well. And in a
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: state where the Democrats have a 22 point voter registration advantage,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: it's not the greatest strategy, but we will see. Last
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: question before we go. How are you feeling about this
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: race right now?
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: I saw that question on the outline and I really
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: debated how to answer it. And here's what I've decided.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: How I feel doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Like this is.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: People should... Vote, like it's a tie race.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, that's important. What possible good is you
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: and I, based on polling, making a prediction about an election?
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: That seems like a terrible idea. But what has actually,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: I think, driven the– because the polls have changed relatively
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: dramatically in Newsom's favor or against the recall. And what
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: I think has driven a lot of that is the
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: recognition– that Elder could win and Newsom could lose. So
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: the last thing I want to do is come on
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: here and say, it's going to be good to me.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: No, I guess the only thing I'll say is, and
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: this has nothing to do with the prediction about this
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: race or how I feel about this race in particular,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: but I am finding it interesting that the strategy that
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: the Newsom campaign has used over the last few weeks,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: which is look how absolutely radical and extreme these Republicans
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: are and would be. is at least over the last
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: couple of weeks, redounding to their benefit. Whether it's enough
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: for them to win, we'll see on Tuesday. But to
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: the extent that there has been some movement, it has
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: really been about them sharpening this message about how dangerous
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: a Republican takeover of California would be. And I do
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: wonder if that's a lesson for Democrats nationally as we
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: head into the midterms in 2022.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Hard to say, given this is a state that.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: This is an easy playing field to try that, right?
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: This is an easy laboratory for that, for sure.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: And when you say we'll find out on Tuesday, you
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: mean starting Tuesday night, we will just wait for Dave
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: Wasserman to tweet what happened?
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: Could be hours.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: Could be days. Could be weeks. Just remember how long
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: California took to count votes in the presidential election, guys. Weeks. Weeks.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: So we shall see. Anyway, VoteSaveAmerica.com slash California. Make sure
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: that you vote. Go get five friends, colleagues, family members
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: to vote. Call up everyone you can. It is extremely important.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: I'm kicking off a phone bank this afternoon on this.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: Everyone has to work as hard as possible to make
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: sure that Democrats are fired up and go vote in
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: this election to stop the Republican recall. And that is
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: all we have for today. Thanks again to Melissa Murray.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: for joining us as always and hope everyone has a
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: good weekend and make sure you turn those ballots in
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: and get some friends to turn the ballots in as well.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: Bye everyone. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: The executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: Flavia Casas. Our associate producer is Olivia Martinez. It's mixed
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: Thanks to Tanya Sominator, Katie Long, Roman Papadimitriou, Caroline Rustin,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: and Justine Howe for production support. And to our digital team,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford, Milo Kim, Yale Freed, and Nar Melkonian,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: who film and share our episodes as videos every week.