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Transcript

Mini: Life Expectancy · Why We Do What We Do

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: You're listening to Why We Do What We Do. Welcome
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: to Why We Do What We Do Mini. I am
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: your host, Abraham. And I'm your host, Shane. We are
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  Speaker 1: a psychology podcast. We talk about the things that humans
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  Speaker 1: and non-human animals do, and we do short versions of
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  Speaker 1: that on Mondays, and we call them minis because they're short.
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  Speaker 1: Mini Mondays. Yeah. And if you're joining us for the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: first time, then welcome. I hope that you enjoy what
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  Speaker 1: you hear in this discussion. And if you're a returning person,
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• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I'll talk more about those things at the end of
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  Speaker 1: this discussion. But we are here to talk about when
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  Speaker 1: you die. Yes.
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  Speaker 2: So we have heard these jokes about a 20-year-old being
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  Speaker 2: considered basically middle-aged in the 1800s because their life expectancy
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  Speaker 2: was only 40 years old. So if you have made
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  Speaker 2: it to 50, you were decrepit, barely hanging in there,
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  Speaker 2: very ancient, very.
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  Speaker 1: Dusty, if you will.
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  Speaker 2: However, this is actually a good example of how the
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  Speaker 2: way we measure something can be extremely misleading or can
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  Speaker 2: be misinterpreted quite easily.
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  Speaker 1: Yes. So essentially, we're talking about this idea of life expectancy.
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  Speaker 1: At what age are you expected that you might die?
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  Speaker 1: And the average life expectancy in the 1800s was like
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  Speaker 1: 42 years old or even less in some places. I'll
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  Speaker 1: get to that in a moment. But what was actually happening? Well,
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  Speaker 1: we'll get into what was actually happening here in a moment.
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  Speaker 1: that number is actually not super representative of what was
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  Speaker 1: actually happening. But you might have thought that like you
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  Speaker 1: made it to 40, you're like, wow, that person is
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  Speaker 1: so old. And if you're in the 1800s and you
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  Speaker 1: knew a 40 year old, like, wow, that person, they're
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  Speaker 1: like on death's doorstep. That's not actually what happened. Now,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: to be fair, Because we're criticizing this idea of life expectancy,
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  Speaker 1: and a lot actually has changed that has dramatically increased
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  Speaker 1: our lifespans. And we're going to talk about several of
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  Speaker 1: those things. But there are also some misunderstandings worth clearing
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  Speaker 1: up about life expectancy. So we're going to talk about
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  Speaker 1: life expectancy, how it has changed over time, and why. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: So in 1800s and even into 1900, the average newborn
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  Speaker 2: girl was not expected to live to see her 43rd birthday.
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  Speaker 2: The average for boys was around 32. And so it's
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  Speaker 2: important to note the words average and newborn. Lots of
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  Speaker 2: things happen to newborns across their life. And also average,
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  Speaker 2: not a great thing.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, very much so. And this is because about 15%
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  Speaker 1: of infants died before their first birthday in 1840. And
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  Speaker 1: as much as 40% of children would not live to
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  Speaker 1: be five years old in some cases, like almost half
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  Speaker 1: would not make it to five years old. So if
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  Speaker 1: you were to just write down the ages at which
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  Speaker 1: all people died in the 1800s, you'd get an average
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  Speaker 1: of mid 30s or 40s as the age at which
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  Speaker 1: people died. You have a whole bunch of these numbers,
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  Speaker 1: and the average number was like 30s and 40s. Right.
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  Speaker 2: But the majority of deaths actually happened on the extremes
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  Speaker 2: of those numbers. A lot of people died very, very young,
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  Speaker 2: and the rest died well into their golden years. Not
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  Speaker 2: that many actually died as a regular matter, of course,
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  Speaker 2: in their 30s and 40s. That was kind of like
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  Speaker 2: just a misinterpretation of those data. So even surviving the
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  Speaker 2: first year of life into the 1800s increased the average
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  Speaker 2: life expectancy by at least five years.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. Just living to be one years old, one year
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  Speaker 1: old actually increased your life expectancy, like a pretty decent amount. Right.
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  Speaker 1: But like, if you were to look at the numbers,
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  Speaker 1: you'd have the number of people, like if you were
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  Speaker 1: to put an age, like age on a line from like,
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  Speaker 1: let's say just one to a hundred. Most of the
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  Speaker 1: deaths were happening around that one to five. And then
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  Speaker 1: most of the deaths were happening around 70-ish. And there
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  Speaker 1: were not as many deaths happening in the middle. But
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  Speaker 1: the average is the middle. But it really did not
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  Speaker 1: represent what was happening in the middle. At all. Right.
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  Speaker 1: Like really, really misleading. As a matter of fact, if
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  Speaker 1: you survived childhood before there was modern medicine, you are
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  Speaker 1: likely to live until your late 60s and early 70s,
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  Speaker 1: which is not terribly far off from where they are
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  Speaker 1: today with an average life expectancy of 79 years old
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  Speaker 1: in the United States as of 2025. So again, if
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  Speaker 1: you made it through childhood in the 1800s, you might
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  Speaker 1: make it to 70, 71. And that was fairly common.
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  Speaker 1: In the United States now, you might make it to 79.
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  Speaker 1: If you live in Hong Kong, you're doing even better
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  Speaker 1: with an average life expectancy of about 85 years old
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  Speaker 1: as where those are clustering now.
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  Speaker 2: Right, right. There were quite a few things that drastically
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  Speaker 2: changed our life expectancy over the time periods that we're
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  Speaker 2: talking about here. Decreasing infant mortality was the largest thing
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  Speaker 2: by far. We started doing better with sanitation, with treating diseases,
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  Speaker 2: using science-based medicine, and I'm going to emphasize that, science-based medicine. Okay.
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  Speaker 2: Practicing better hygiene, improving safety standards and requirements, and providing
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  Speaker 2: safer and more reliable access to food and clean drinking water.
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  Speaker 1: And not providing ads.
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  Speaker 2: No, ads were the least helpful.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, we're back. We've been talking about the fact that
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  Speaker 1: a lot of things changed that helped increase life expectancy,
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  Speaker 1: but decreasing infant mortality was like the biggest thing that
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  Speaker 1: moved these numbers up quite a bit.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: So when we started seeing the fastest and most dramatic
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  Speaker 1: increases in surviving childhood and living a long and healthy
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  Speaker 1: life correlates very powerfully and directly with a particular invention.
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  Speaker 1: If you look at the timeline and you see life expectancy,
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  Speaker 1: it's like slowly sloping upward for a long time. And
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  Speaker 1: then around the early 1900s, all of a sudden it
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  Speaker 1: starts ramping up quickly at a very high rate. Our
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  Speaker 1: life expectancy is jumping very, very quickly. What happened then?
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  Speaker 1: Vaccines happened then. When vaccines started being mandated and used widespread,
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  Speaker 1: lifespans just rocketed upward and child deaths plummeted from that
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  Speaker 1: terrifying 40% to less than 1% in modern days, largely
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  Speaker 1: and if not almost entirely due to things like vaccines
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  Speaker 1: and in particular medicine or in general medicine.
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  Speaker 2: In general medicine, yeah. Now, that being said, the number
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  Speaker 2: of people living into their 80s, 90s, and 100s has
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  Speaker 2: also increased dramatically. Whereas less than 1% of people have
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  Speaker 2: ever been expected to make it to 100 years old,
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  Speaker 2: current projections expect as many as 8% of people will
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  Speaker 2: live to be at least 100 years old by the
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  Speaker 2: end of this century. I mean, that's a hell of
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  Speaker 2: an increase.
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  Speaker 1: That's a very, very large increase. Eight times more, in fact. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: So that's a pretty big jump. And again, this is
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  Speaker 1: largely thanks to advances in science, medicine, and importantly, regulatory
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  Speaker 1: boards of experts who have guided policies. And their guidance
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  Speaker 1: has significantly improved the length and quality of our lives
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  Speaker 1: because those policies do things like regulate chemicals that we're consuming,
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  Speaker 1: the kinds of nutrients that we're exposed to, what companies
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  Speaker 1: are allowed to put in their food and drink, and
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  Speaker 1: so There's a whole story worth getting into at some
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  Speaker 1: point about a group of people called the Poison Squad,
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  Speaker 1: whom before we had a lot of these regulations, these
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  Speaker 1: were volunteers who had consumed various amounts of things to
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: see what happened if you had a whole bunch of
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: asbestos in your cereal. Yeah. And things like that. And
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  Speaker 1: like they did really dangerous stuff and they suffered for it.
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  Speaker 1: And like they used to try and color milk. I
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: think they use chalk to try and color milk. So
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  Speaker 1: it looked whiter if it was starting to spoil. And
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  Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, it'll be fine. And as long as
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  Speaker 1: people keep having kids, then we can feed them whatever
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  Speaker 1: and they'll die and their kids will grow up and
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  Speaker 1: then they'll feed it to their kids and we'll just
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  Speaker 1: keep making money. Everybody's happy. Well, not a bunch of
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  Speaker 1: people are dead. We're happy because we have money. And
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  Speaker 1: a lot of policymakers were like, okay. Let's stop doing
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  Speaker 1: that and make it so that things are safe to consume.
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  Speaker 1: But it took a while. It took a while to
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  Speaker 1: get there. Yeah, yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Now, at the risk of sounding alarmist, this is the
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  Speaker 2: risk posed by the current administration, which has virtually obliterated
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  Speaker 2: science-based policies... and experts who have worked so hard for
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  Speaker 2: so long to provide us the gift of long life. Instead,
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  Speaker 2: our lives are now in the hands of for-profit entities
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  Speaker 2: and private equity firms with an agenda to make as
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  Speaker 2: much money as quickly as possible. The goal of making
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  Speaker 2: money does not coincide with taking care of people.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. And actually, ironically, I think ironically, the wellness industry
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  Speaker 1: is a huge problem here. Yes. They're the ones who
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  Speaker 1: push for no regulation. They're the ones who push for un-evidence-based,
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  Speaker 1: non-proven things. They're the ones who push dangerous, dangerous crap.
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  Speaker 1: And they have found an ally in the staggering incompetence
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  Speaker 1: of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is as corrupt as
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: the day is long. and is obviously having his pockets
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  Speaker 1: lined by these useless piles of crap. The Trump administration
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: broadly and every stupid, derelict, belligerent, useless, dumb motherfuckers who
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: put them the power and continue to support their asinine
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  Speaker 1: stupidities are the reason we're now facing something that should
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: have been taken care of and was taken care of
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  Speaker 1: a long time ago. So in the extremely unlikely event
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: that RFK Jr. or anyone, and the Trump administration ever
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: hears this, I wanna make sure that my message to
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: you is very, very clear and as professional as I
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: can make it given the circumstances. You resign now. It's
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: just dangerous incompetence. The amount of things that we're seeing
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: backslide is insane. I mean, it's absolutely insane. It's ridiculous.
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  Speaker 1: And unnecessary. Yes. It's every day is mind boggling how
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: bad things have gotten and how quickly and how worse
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: they could possibly become.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: Please vote these useless ass out, please. Or please overthrow them.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Either way works for me now. We need something to change.
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  Speaker 1: Our lives are in danger at their stupidity. And I
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: mean stupidity. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Peace be with you all.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Violence is not the answer. A nice bloodless coup is
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: what we're looking for here. Yeah. If you would like
• 10:49
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• 10:51
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• 10:55
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• 10:57
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  Speaker 1: and that really helps us out, and we do really
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thank you all for listening. Thank you for
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: recording with me today, Shane. Hey, thanks for having me.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much to my team of people. Is
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: there anything that I missed or that you would like
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: to add before we wrap this one up? Because we
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: did say a lot and we ended kind of abruptly.
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  Speaker 2: No, I think that covers it. Data are interesting. Pay
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: attention to how data are interpreted. Vaccines save lives.
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  Speaker 1: All true things. Yeah. The life expectancy thing, I think
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  Speaker 1: has been misunderstood because of the way that the numbers
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  Speaker 1: were crunched. It was hard to live past childhood. If
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  Speaker 1: you did, you live to be fairly old. Now you
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  Speaker 1: live to be much older and a lot more people
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  Speaker 1: do make it there, which is great. Like we have,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: we have so many new medicines and things that have
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: greatly advanced and increased our survival for things that would
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: have otherwise killed us until we put people in charge
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  Speaker 1: whose mission is to otherwise kill us.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: And so assuming we can over, we can clear that gigantic,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: horrible hurdle of incompetence, We'll continue to push the envelope
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  Speaker 1: and see humans survive and thrive and hopefully never make
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: these mistakes again. Exactly. All right. Well, that was like
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: a whole nother level of take home points, but I
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: think we're good there. So thank you for listening. This
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: is Abraham. This is Shane. Why we do what we do.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Minnie is out. Bye. You've been listening to Why We
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Do What We Do.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: You can learn more about this and other episodes by
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: going to www.wwdpodcast.com. Thanks for listening, and we hope you
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: have an awesome day.