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Is the AI Bubble About to Burst? · Earn Your Leisure

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• 1:51
  Speaker 3: Main topic of today with tech stocks crashed, specifically chip stocks,
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: Nvidia down fifteen, SMH down tremendous amount ASML down, TSM
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: down tremendous amount, so in a in a very short
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: period of time, and there's been a lot of people
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: that have said that AI bubble wouldin at some point,
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: Mike Novegrats being one of them, saying that not artificial
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: intelligence wasn't real, but it was overpriced, overhyped, and it
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: was going to be a catalyst at some point in
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: time to kind of bring things back to the level
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: of reality.
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: So this deep.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: Seak thing comes out and shoots to the app top
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: of the app store overnight, pretty much a Chinese app
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: company that, yeah, they said, achieved workable function at a
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: very high level, something say, even better than open Ai
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: for six million dollars, a fraction of the cost of
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: the billions of dollars that has been poured into all
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: of these companies, including open Ai, and it shakes the
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: whole industry and thinks makes people think that yeah, maybe
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: not that Nvidia is not valuable company, but maybe their
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: products are over hyped and overvalued as far as how
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: much money is being poured into the space. And then
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: for other companies that have not even done anything yet
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: but still have been able to raise a bunch of
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: money from venture capital. So all of these chip stocks
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: are down drastically. So, like I said, even if they're
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: forging the numbers a little bit or it's not, it
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: definitely speaks to some level of pestimism. That people have
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: been talking about talking about this for a while, as
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: far as the Ai bubble, for at least eighteen months.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: So I don't think that these companies just disappear overnight.
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: But the question that everybody has is okay? Is this
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: a sign of what's to come? Is this now? This
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: is a reset and it's going to be just a
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: lot slower growth for these companies. Is it a good
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: time to buy the companies? That's the next question as well.
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: Yes, shameless plug, go toeininvest dot com. If you want
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: to know where to get into the market, where to
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: get out. I put this price in it, I think
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: two weeks ago for in video. As far as it
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: being a reset, the top two or three players in
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: the space will remain that they will be dominant.
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: But I think and I don't want.
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: To be flippant about the deep seek allegation, but I
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: want to be clear, it's almost okay if you run
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: it through their model. Can't wait for the mass of mind,
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: because I'm gonna show you some of the prompts that
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: I use for investing. The mathematical probability of being able
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: to get this compute out of six million dollars is
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: zero point zero zero zero zero one percent probability.
• 4:53
  Speaker 6: So not me.
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: That's their own tech. When I ran my model based
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: on capex of other companies, Now is their AI bubble?
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: I think there's a lot of companies that don't have
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: any real AI yet have acted like they do and
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: they're gonna fall apart.
• 5:08
  Speaker 6: So yes, but will in video be fine?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Yes?
• 5:11
  Speaker 6: Meta be fine, yes, Will Oracle be fine? Yes? Will
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: AMD be fine? Yes?
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: And a lot of people who kept calling for this
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: AI bubble are people who missed out on buying in
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: video the same dirty Mac and Elon did over that
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: Stargate project we got stolen from Microsoft, and he's mad
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: because he didn't get part of that spend. So in
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: order for Deep Seek to be great, let's just go
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: through some of them and say that they are better.
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: They got to be open AIH one oh one Mini, Gemini,
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: Gemini one point five, Claude, Novapro, Lama three and three
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: point three, GPT four point zero, gp T four oh Mini.
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: It's a lot of competition. So is the AI bubble
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: over hyped? I think there are too many companies who
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: attest themselves to be AI facing and they weren't in
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: And also too, it's a conversation about interest rates that
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: people are afraid of, and I think this just took
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: the leadership cycle. And for everyone who said you found
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: the next quant company, why are you afraid of deep
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: seeks quantum is superior. If you found the quant company
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: that are going to rule the next twenty years, why
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: are you asking me if you should sell off your
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: quant position because of deep seek?
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: It makes no sense.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: I think the on this, Yeah, I think the question
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: that they can you create innovation without advanced hardware?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: That's that's the question, right, Like is it? Is it possible?
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: And so when we're talking about advanced hardware, you're talking
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: about the nvidios, you're talking about the broad coms, you're
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: talking about the AMDs, you're talking about the micro Like
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: that's advanced hardware now? Is in video over hyped? I
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: can't use the word overhype because they're still going to
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: be necessary. Even for deep Seat. If you look at
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: how it's built, it still needs the GPUs. Does it
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: need many GPUs is the real question. But you're still
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: gonna need them. And so that that's the first thing,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: And then it's is this a war to who's first?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: Absolutely?
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: So, like if China is saying like, hey, we have
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: this company and we can do it for this efficiency,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: then when you try to use it today, why can't
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: we use it?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: If it's a global thing?
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: Right?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So, like that.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: There's that part of it, and then it talks about
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: efficiency from our standpoint, like I said, think about the
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: amount of money that has been allocated. Last week we
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: talked about five hundred billion that was for AI expansion,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: data centers and everything adjacent to it.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Energy.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: We saw a VISTA go down today, We saw a
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: vr T move down today, we saw GeV move down today.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: All these are energy components, broadcom connectivity average, all these
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: things pulled down because of.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: This quote unquote efficiency. The other thing is this man
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: people want new buying points.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: All right, like the market has to falsil people can
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: buy in absolutely. If deep Seat was created in December
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: of twenty twenty three, if it was disufficient, Is it
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: coincidental that it is? This announcement is happening after all
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: those everybody's said that they're going to have their cap backs,
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: and it's the same week of these max seven earnings.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Metas reporting this week, Apple's reporting this week, Microsoft reporting
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: this week, and two weeks in video B reporting, big
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: companies reporting with their numbers and what they've been spending.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Coincidental? I don't know so.
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: And the real conversation is were they able to get
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: some of those GPS in China that they were not
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: supposed to get in for their infrastructure.
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: Now that's the conversation that needs to be had.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Oh during the.
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: Band, Well, the thing about it is that you never
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: buy stocks at all time highs facts, so that stocks
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: always pulled back for one reason or another. Yeah, but
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: there's a difference between a pullback and a reset because
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: a reset you can actually just reset the whole landscape
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: and it can change potentially forever, as opposed to a
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: pull back, which would just pull back for the second
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: then just go back to things as normal. So we'll
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: think the question is will things be as normal or
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: will it be a reset in the space. Like I said,
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: I don't think anybody isn't thinking video is not going
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: to be here anymore? But will it be a reset
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: in the space where chip stocks will not be leading
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: like they were.
• 9:36
  Speaker 6: And in the cycle of America?
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: What could replace it? That's a great question. But what
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: will replace it? I think in videos here to stay MD,
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: I think it's going to have a monastery or but
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: what when people talk sector rotation and some people were
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: bank is doing better, I'm like, you're not going to
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: go by bank of a I mean, shot to Brian
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: one hand, an amazing person. You're buy a Bank of
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: America over AMD. Like AMD is neck and neck with
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: Apple in terms of returns over the last five years.
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: It's not talked about because of what sector they are,
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: So would that be a reset I've been really big
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: on I don't think the energy companies are going to
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: do what they did last year. So in video will
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: do well, MDA do well, Metal will do as a result,
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: Tesla will do well. They have a lot of compute
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: over there as well. But everyone just slapping AI on
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: their stock to make the value go up.
• 10:31
  Speaker 6: Yet it's over with.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: I'm on the record saying I believe energy will do well.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Will it have fifty sixty games?
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: We know I can call that.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Will it do well? Yeah?
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: From the standpoint of what we're talking about efficiency, how
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: do we make energy more efficient if we know that
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: it's going to cost us this amount to have this
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: type of compute, and not just in the GPU space,
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: but if you're even talking about in the crypto space
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: as well, Like that's still requires energy to run at
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: its highest and most efficient capacity. So like, even like
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: I said, like when I talked about this data center,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: revolution like they originally with house too and they were
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: mining bitcoin right when you saw how much energy it took.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: We have to create more efficient ways to have connectivity, uh,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: to have coolant, all that is inside of it now
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: obviously with AI being at the forefront. Yeah, it's a
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: dual purpose in a sense where like, hey, we need
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: it for this too. So I still think energy is
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: going to be a story this year.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: So okay, so let's let's speak even a little bit
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: clearer for the people. What stocks do you think would
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: be a.
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: Good boss and video meta?
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: All right, listen, lest let's listen, right, let's go a
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: little deep.
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: Amd.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: I'm you know, I'm I'm an advocate for the for
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: the for the people, and I know I know what
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: the people will say. So what's the stocks that are
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: not in the mag seven? Look, Troy, because you've championed
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of these other the companies. So these companies
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: that are not in the mag seven are you? Are
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: you still confident about these companies? Are you starting to
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: feel a little bit nervous?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: No, I'm still confident.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: All right, Which which of these companies would you be
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: enthusiastic about now? Tomorrow morning? Bying because all of them
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: are down like we.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Got I'm still in TSM. That's not a max.
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: I'm talking about the VSTs.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: What you said, max seven?
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: Okay, the lower the lower ran.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: The v yeah, I actually you Yeah.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: So I went shopping even a right like so when
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: and again it's one of these mindset things, right we
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: see a pull back like that. I woke up, I
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: saw Nastak was down in angel punts. I'm like, all right,
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: we already have some some money in reserves. Now let's
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: see if we can get some of these price points
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: that we were saying prior to. And so when I
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: saw VST get down to a number, I was like, oh,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: it had ran up to one ninety nine last week.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I'm like, damn, it might have outran me. I saw
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: go back down to one. I'm like, all right, well,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: it's back in the range where I wanted to get
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: it at. So I went shopping.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: I did grab some VSD because again, I still think
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: energy is going to be a story. We spoke about
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: this on the Thursday call about a company that I
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: mean we if we if we look at his chart
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: over the past six months, uh, and we look about
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: the story in AI.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: It pulled back to a pointment.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: I'm like, all right, down at one ten, let me
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: let me go grab some let me go grab some
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: some contracts down there. And that is a h Aresta
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: networks an e t uh. And so I think the
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: story stays the same for at least twenty twenty five
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: for sure. But again when we when we do these contracts,
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: I'm going you know, out a lot further with maximum
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: potential growth, right, and so.
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: So you're still confident on your companies.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: I'm still in all I actually went shopping today. I'm
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: be honest with you. I went shopping, and what'd you buy?
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I'll show you you want to see it. So I bought,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I bought more. I bought VST because it got to
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: a point. I bought VRT right again energy as well,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: and talking about cooling for the data centers. So I'm
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: still in the data center revolution. I got more contracts
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: on TSM because that's pulled back. I already had the
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: one oh five that I exercised, and I talked about
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: that on the.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Class I had a one eighty.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: We went down and got some more down at the
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: one ninety five range, and I got one more.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if it got filled, I'll chat,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I'll feel you in.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: And when I opened up my brokers, but I definitely
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: got those three for sure, and then I had one
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: that was just pending.
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: And now I'll play Devil's advocate to my own position.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: The threat the Deep Seak does pose is open source.
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: But what happens when Trump knocks on somebody's door, maybe Elon's,
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: and say, hey, make grock Ai open source so we
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: don't have to deal with this threat in China than
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: what Deep seek.
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: You're screwed. I'll wait to the second hour.
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: Thank you to the families in their parents to watch
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: the kids, love you you.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: My fourth one was Palo Alto. I bought more.
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: But they do have an advantage of education.
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: They have smart people a thousand percent, and they have.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: A unified government. They have they have a lot of it.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: So you can't just count You're right, can't count them out.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: No, I'm not counting it out because it's either a
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: couple of things are gonna happen, right, Like either American
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: company is gonna say, hey, they're onto something and we've
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: got this wrong and they have to cut back spending, right,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: But then that spending is going where Right, These are
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: the cappex numbers already for twenty twenty five, So this
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: money is already been allocated out right by the time
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: we see it, It's already been spent, right. So like
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: when in video reports, my meta has already spent the
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: money with them, right, Like Microsoft has already spent the
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: money with them by the time we see the report.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: So what does that look like for twenty twenty six?
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: We gotta we gotta really mind to this.
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: We'll see and you know who didn't have all these
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: capex in Ai Manzana. My favorite investment move is when
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: people get to picture me things that I'll need. Let
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: me wait three months to six months to see if
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: I still want it. Apple is on fire today as
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: a result, and the thing is too, And I keep
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: strussing this. It's not the sexy media answer. A lot
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: of you needs to stop chasing the next new thing
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: week to week. I just thought, y'all loved Quantum and
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: that bullshit collection of stocks.
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: Storry to the.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Parent, Sorry to the parent, like yo, what do we like?
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: Yeah?
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: But even Apple pulled back right, like this is what
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: I'm saying, Like we saw Apple run up to two
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: fifty three. We spoke about it, like what's the innovation?
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: It pulls back down to two twenty five, and people
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: are like, well, I don't know. Yeah, I don't know,
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: but I mean it's a big week for Apple the
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: long term. Yeah, obviously long term vision. You're looking at
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: this as a great opportunity for a bypoint, but this
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: is a big week for Apple. We'll see what happens.
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: I agree with your point.
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: The only thing in the SWAT analysis that we have
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: to remember is that their own leadership are keeping They
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: have some amazing companies that are publicly traded, and they've
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: kept them quiet the last three years.
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: I don't think they're gonna let this from flourish.
• 17:25
  Speaker 7: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 17:29
  Speaker 7: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 17:33
  Speaker 7: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with
• 17:37
  Speaker 7: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 17:41
  Speaker 7: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 17:45
  Speaker 7: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
• 17:48
  Speaker 7: Secretary of Homeland Security under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 17:57
  Speaker 7: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 18:00
  Speaker 7: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly
• 18:04
  Speaker 7: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 18:08
  Speaker 7: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 18:12
  Speaker 7: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 18:16
  Speaker 7: Do what's right, leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 18:21
  Speaker 7: border and families will be protected.
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,