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In-depth look at Baseball America’s top Cubs prospects · North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast

0:04
Speaker 1: Welcome into North Side Territory Foul Territory Networks Cubs Podcast.
0:08
Speaker 1: I'm Sahadev Charma with my partner Patrick Mooney. Today, Patrick,
0:13
Speaker 1: we are going to talk with Jeff Potts of Baseball America.
0:17
Speaker 1: The Baseball America just released the Cub's top ten prospect list.
0:23
Speaker 1: Jeff did a long chat with Cubs fans or prospect hounds.
0:28
Speaker 1: Who knows a combination of the two. Yeah, because desperate
0:36
Speaker 1: for prospect, because Jeff, thanks so much for joining us.
0:40
Speaker 1: It's not, you know, prospect, it's not a system flush
0:46
Speaker 1: with talent, a lot of near graduates. But I guess
0:50
Speaker 1: let's just start, you know, the overall thoughts on this
0:56
Speaker 1: system and where they sit.
0:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I have to say I'm pretty thankful
1:02
Speaker 2: to the Cubs for not graduating Moyses, ballistero In Kacy
1:08
Speaker 2: and Kevin al Kintara, just because it did leave me
1:12
Speaker 2: some interesting players to write about. Had those guys graduated,
1:16
Speaker 2: I think this system would probably rank a lot lower
1:20
Speaker 2: and would be far less enjoyable writing and reading. But
1:25
Speaker 2: you know, I think it's still the strength that they
1:28
Speaker 2: had last year, where there are some close to the
1:30
Speaker 2: majors players here guys who have already debuted now kind
1:34
Speaker 2: of across the board within that group, and then you
1:37
Speaker 2: have somebody like Jackson Wiggins, who I think, upside wise
1:41
Speaker 2: is probably one of the more interesting pitching prospects in
1:43
Speaker 2: any system. Had there been you know, maybe a few
1:48
Speaker 2: more innings. He had that shut down in July where
1:50
Speaker 2: they kind of kept it quiet, and you know it
1:52
Speaker 2: was more or less reported as just trying to limit
1:56
Speaker 2: his innings. Obviously somebody that had you know, surgery coming
1:59
Speaker 2: out of the draft, limited track record a success at Arkansas,
2:04
Speaker 2: but the stuff has always been big.
2:06
Speaker 3: This was sort of his breakout year.
2:07
Speaker 2: This is the best year that he's had, you know,
2:10
Speaker 2: since since he walked on campus at Arkansas and then
2:13
Speaker 2: obviously was drafted and became a professional. There's big stuff there.
2:17
Speaker 2: He's probably the guy in the system I'm most excited about,
2:21
Speaker 2: but was a little bit more cautious in terms of
2:23
Speaker 2: ranking him simply because of what the injury risk is there.
2:27
Speaker 2: You know, this is a guy where we haven't seen
2:29
Speaker 2: him ever exceed you know, one hundred plus innings in
2:32
Speaker 2: a year, and that's a bit of a limiting factor
2:35
Speaker 2: when it comes to projecting as a starting pitching prospect
2:38
Speaker 2: We've learned over time that innings really do matter quite
2:41
Speaker 2: a bit, even more so than stuff.
2:44
Speaker 4: Jeff, one thing that jumped out to me on this
2:47
Speaker 4: list is that Wiggins is the only pitcher on that
2:50
Speaker 4: top ten, And Sahadev was asking about that at the
2:52
Speaker 4: GM meetings, like, what are the cups hitting prospects that
2:57
Speaker 4: good or they're pitching prospects that bad? How do you
3:00
Speaker 4: look at what seems to be a real imbalance in
3:03
Speaker 4: the system.
3:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you look at this system and there's
3:07
Speaker 2: just not a lot of upside arms. Right, you have
3:11
Speaker 2: some guys who I think are what I would qualify
3:15
Speaker 2: is starter depth number six, number seven starters. Good teams
3:19
Speaker 2: definitely need guys like that to supplement innings throughout the year.
3:24
Speaker 2: You know, I think obviously the Dodgers have an extreme
3:26
Speaker 2: embarrassment of riches in terms of the pitching prospects in
3:29
Speaker 2: their organization and just pitchers in general. But you do
3:32
Speaker 2: need sort of that depth. The problem is all the
3:35
Speaker 2: guys that they have that are sort of that depth
3:38
Speaker 2: are kind of at the lowest rung of the type
3:41
Speaker 2: of pitching prospect you would even let start a Major
3:44
Speaker 2: League game. You're talking about guys like Brandon Bertze, who
3:47
Speaker 2: obviously is now dealing with injury and you know, could
3:49
Speaker 2: potentially miss all the next year. Will Sanders, who was
3:54
Speaker 2: good at points in time at South Carolina, was considered
3:57
Speaker 2: a decent draft prospect as an underclassman that sort of
4:02
Speaker 2: fell apart during his junior campaign. He's been fine as
4:06
Speaker 2: a professional, but he's once again not the kind of
4:09
Speaker 2: guy that is going to be a number three starter
4:11
Speaker 2: or better, or someone that even projects as like a
4:14
Speaker 2: dominant reliever. And it's a lot of arms like that,
4:17
Speaker 2: even like a breakout on arm like justin Florentino. It's
4:21
Speaker 2: a soft tosser. It's a really interesting sweeper, but it's
4:25
Speaker 2: mid seventies. I mean, he's a smaller guy you kind
4:29
Speaker 2: of go throughout this system. The only guy with true upside,
4:32
Speaker 2: it feels like, outside of the top ten pitching wise,
4:36
Speaker 2: is Caleb Wing and we just haven't we haven't seen
4:38
Speaker 2: it yet. So a lot of that is going off
4:40
Speaker 2: of amateur reports. He wouldn't be the first pitching prospect
4:44
Speaker 2: that backed up from what his amateur numbers are. He
4:46
Speaker 2: wouldn't be the first pitching prospect as an amateur that
4:49
Speaker 2: saw his stuff get better as a professional. But I
4:52
Speaker 2: don't think that we have a lot of faith at
4:55
Speaker 2: this point that the Cubs player development, particularly on the
4:58
Speaker 2: pitching side, is capable making those guys better. We've had
5:01
Speaker 2: a big win recently with Kate Horton, one that I
5:05
Speaker 2: think you could probably look back in the last thirty
5:07
Speaker 2: years of the Cub's farm system and they haven't had
5:09
Speaker 2: a whole lot of those wins. Even when they were
5:12
Speaker 2: really successful under theo Epstein, they didn't develop pitching. So
5:16
Speaker 2: I do think that's a concern, and I think it's
5:18
Speaker 2: a concern when you look at where this team falls
5:21
Speaker 2: sort of in the potential contenders amongst the National League.
5:26
Speaker 2: All of those teams they are going to be competing
5:28
Speaker 2: with the Dodgers, et cetera. The Mets, whoever, have a
5:32
Speaker 2: lot more pitching, and you sort of have to wonder
5:36
Speaker 2: where is it going to come from, because they're going
5:38
Speaker 2: to have if they're going to build a contending starting rotation,
5:43
Speaker 2: it's not going to be from internal resources. They're going
5:45
Speaker 2: to have to make some trades from those young position
5:48
Speaker 2: players that have just debuted that we talked about at
5:50
Speaker 2: the top of the system, or they're going to have
5:52
Speaker 2: to go out and spend half a billion dollars to
5:55
Speaker 2: invest in that rotation. It's just there's a lack of
5:58
Speaker 2: options there that I think are good enough to make
6:02
Speaker 2: a deep playoff run.
6:04
Speaker 1: We've heard this story before, Patrick, I'm getting Yeah, okay,
6:11
Speaker 1: so you touched on it there and and you know, like,
6:14
Speaker 1: to be honest, I think Patrick and I have heard
6:16
Speaker 1: a lot of different stories about this recently. It's it's
6:20
Speaker 1: been something that I've been looking into because I'm curious
6:24
Speaker 1: about it. I'm curious what you've heard. Do you believe
6:27
Speaker 1: it's it's a mix of things this issue or you
6:30
Speaker 1: touched on it player development?
6:32
Speaker 3: Maybe?
6:32
Speaker 1: Is it player development? Is it amateur draft? I get
6:35
Speaker 1: a lot of reports on like what are these pictures
6:38
Speaker 1: that they're drafting? Uh, people aren't thrilled with around the league.
6:42
Speaker 1: I'm saying they don't quite understand their tactics when it
6:47
Speaker 1: comes to drafting pictures. Is that like, what's your focus
6:51
Speaker 1: when you look back on the let's say the last
6:53
Speaker 1: four or five drafts and then player development stuff, Is
6:57
Speaker 1: that where would you put place or played?
7:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I sort of subscribe to the philosophy that
7:06
Speaker 2: it's twofold.
7:07
Speaker 3: Right, there's an old line.
7:09
Speaker 2: I'm from New England, I'm I'm a Patriots fan and
7:12
Speaker 2: I'm old, So I'm sorry everybody.
7:14
Speaker 3: But there's an.
7:15
Speaker 2: Old line from Bill Parcells when he was walking out
7:18
Speaker 2: the door and had his issue with Craft, and it was,
7:20
Speaker 2: if you're gonna ask me to cook the meal, you
7:22
Speaker 2: should at least let me shop for the groceries. Now,
7:25
Speaker 2: we don't have, you know, an all encompassing dictator that's making,
7:29
Speaker 2: you know, baseball decisions and managing the team. It doesn't
7:32
Speaker 2: happen in baseball, but I do think it's the same
7:34
Speaker 2: sort of concept with player development being involved in the
7:38
Speaker 2: targeting and identification on the amateur side and making sure
7:41
Speaker 2: that you're targeting guys with good traits that we can
7:44
Speaker 2: accentuate and turn into better pitchers.
7:46
Speaker 3: Whether it's the Rays, whether.
7:48
Speaker 2: It's the Dodgers, whether it's you know, and these are
7:50
Speaker 2: people that came from the Cubs front office, whether it's
7:52
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. If you look at the Red Sox,
7:54
Speaker 2: this is another team that historically has not developed pitching prospects.
7:58
Speaker 2: John Lester and Clay Buckholtz kind of stand alone at
8:01
Speaker 2: the only guys in my lifetime and I was going
8:03
Speaker 2: to p a Tuck at Red Sox games in nineteen
8:05
Speaker 2: eighty nine. So, like I've seen a lot of Red
8:07
Speaker 2: Sox prospects, they've never been able to develop pitching. They
8:11
Speaker 2: brought in different people, they started to involve those people
8:14
Speaker 2: in the amateur evaluation process and identifying traits, and then
8:18
Speaker 2: we have Peyton Toley and we have Conlee Early, and
8:22
Speaker 2: we have some of these guys that are then able
8:24
Speaker 2: to learn new pitches, add velocity, get better their ceiling.
8:29
Speaker 2: And I think the issue with a lot of the
8:30
Speaker 2: pitchers that the Cubs have taken is relying on the model.
8:34
Speaker 2: They've drafted a lot of hitters that have certain traits.
8:38
Speaker 2: They all have pretty good end zone with they all
8:41
Speaker 2: have good swing decisions, they all have good evs, and
8:44
Speaker 2: I think Ethan Conrad and camp Smith are certainly wins
8:46
Speaker 2: in that direction. But then you start to look at
8:48
Speaker 2: some of the later rounds, even some of the high
8:50
Speaker 2: school guys that they're taking. I actually had somebody with
8:55
Speaker 2: the amateur team with the Cubs years ago, maybe two
8:57
Speaker 2: years ago, after the cam Smith draft kind of joke
9:00
Speaker 2: that we took a bunch of first basement and corner
9:03
Speaker 2: infielders and corner outfielders. And I think that's the issue
9:06
Speaker 2: with model drafting, is you miss on upside because you're
9:09
Speaker 2: not evaluating some of the other traits and characteristics that
9:13
Speaker 2: can turn guys into stars, that can make guys better
9:17
Speaker 2: no player. And I actually heard this from somebody once
9:19
Speaker 2: again in the Cubs front office. They tell me that
9:22
Speaker 2: they don't believe that any players that come into the
9:25
Speaker 2: system are fully developed yet that everybody has room to develop. Well,
9:30
Speaker 2: if that's the case, then why haven't we seen guys
9:33
Speaker 2: honestly take big steps forward in their development, you know
9:37
Speaker 2: under the Cubs two to which that's even on the
9:39
Speaker 2: hitting side a little bit. We heard all the stuff
9:41
Speaker 2: about Justin Stone. We haven't seen the we haven't seen
9:44
Speaker 2: a big breakout bat. Even Matt Shaw this year was
9:47
Speaker 2: kind of underwhelming at the plate, frankly, And so I
9:51
Speaker 2: think you look at all those characteristics and I think
9:53
Speaker 2: that it is, frankly an amateur targeting problem to an extent.
9:58
Speaker 3: I think they do a pretty good job up in
10:00
Speaker 3: the early rounds.
10:01
Speaker 2: The models are supposed to eat in round five to twenty,
10:05
Speaker 2: and they're just not doing that. And I think some
10:07
Speaker 2: of it is, you know what they're targeting. I just
10:09
Speaker 2: don't see the high upside pitchers coming in. And you know,
10:12
Speaker 2: even a bad system like the Astros that I cover,
10:14
Speaker 2: I cover the Astros, I cover the Cardinals, I cover
10:17
Speaker 2: the Blue Jays, and I cover the Cubs. Every single
10:20
Speaker 2: one of those systems is a lot more pitching than
10:22
Speaker 2: the Cubs do, and they don't necessarily have more resources,
10:25
Speaker 2: and some of them have been very limited in terms
10:27
Speaker 2: of what they can.
10:28
Speaker 3: Do in the draft. I mean, even the Cardinals have
10:30
Speaker 3: kind of turned it around.
10:32
Speaker 2: You know, that was a team that for years was
10:34
Speaker 2: kind of drafting really boring model pitchers, left handers who
10:38
Speaker 2: threw soft, that had good walk rates and decent strikeout rates.
10:42
Speaker 3: It was sort of that K to Bb model.
10:44
Speaker 2: This year they go out and they draft Liam Doyle,
10:47
Speaker 2: they get Tanner Franklin, they get Kid Crosslin. They actually
10:50
Speaker 2: have some interesting arms now. And I don't know if
10:52
Speaker 2: that's the high end bloom effect, because he certainly had
10:55
Speaker 2: some of that impact in Boston. Maybe a little bit
10:57
Speaker 2: less drastic, but you know that that's the kind of
11:00
Speaker 2: stuff that I think the Cubs need to start doing.
11:02
Speaker 2: They need to start targeting more upside and figuring out
11:04
Speaker 2: how internally they can then turn those upside traits into
11:08
Speaker 2: actual skills and production. And you know, for a team
11:12
Speaker 2: like this that's been lacking and pitching, I think it's
11:14
Speaker 2: something that's really really hurt them.
11:17
Speaker 1: I mean I've heard similar stuff and I agree. I
11:20
Speaker 1: think you know you want upside with pitching, like you
11:23
Speaker 1: want to lean on your development, because I do think
11:25
Speaker 1: there are some people that can out them. Brezo built
11:28
Speaker 1: something solid. There maybe needs to be fine tuned, and
11:32
Speaker 1: you always want to find tune, but there are there
11:34
Speaker 1: are ways to get better, and I think going upside
11:37
Speaker 1: is makes a lot of sense.
11:39
Speaker 3: Let's take a quick break and.
11:40
Speaker 1: Get back to chatting with Jeff Pott's about Cubs prospects.
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12:47
Speaker 1: All right, Welcome back to Northside Territory with Baseball America's
12:51
Speaker 1: Jeff Pond's talking Cubs Prospects. Patrick, go ahead and ask
12:56
Speaker 1: whatever you got for Jeff.
12:58
Speaker 4: No, I appreciate your informed balance perspective because I don't
13:06
Speaker 4: know being around the Cubs and covering the Cubs. As
13:08
Speaker 4: you know, Jeff, there's usually a lot of hype around there, guys.
13:13
Speaker 4: And when you framed it as like looking back at
13:15
Speaker 4: the last thirty years, like you're right in terms of
13:18
Speaker 4: the pitching side, I mean kind of big Z Carrie
13:21
Speaker 4: Woodmark pryor Jeff Samarga justin steel. Maybe you can get
13:27
Speaker 4: a little credit for Kyle Hendrix even though he wasn't
13:30
Speaker 4: fully homegrown. So what's kind of your outlook? Because we
13:34
Speaker 4: were just at the GM meetings hearing all this stuff
13:36
Speaker 4: of looking at the Cubs they really have essentially Dansby
13:40
Speaker 4: Swanson on a fully guaranteed deal after twenty twenty six.
13:45
Speaker 4: We don't know what's gonna happen with the next CBA.
13:49
Speaker 4: What is your kind of outlook on this organization? Like
13:52
Speaker 4: can these young hitters carry them? Is there enough to backfill?
13:58
Speaker 4: Looking more broader not just filling out pitching staff, Like
14:00
Speaker 4: what's kind of your five year outlook considering how well
14:03
Speaker 4: you know it from kind of the bottom up.
14:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the question is like, you know, how
14:10
Speaker 2: much the Cubs want to stink for a couple of years,
14:14
Speaker 2: you know. I think that you have players like Owen Casey,
14:19
Speaker 2: al Kintara, Biasteros, maybe Conrad depending upon how the health
14:25
Speaker 2: bounces back and Kane Kepley as guys that can probably
14:29
Speaker 2: move pretty fast out of the most recent draft, and
14:31
Speaker 2: we're seeing college players with skills that you know, produce early.
14:35
Speaker 2: We're seeing those guys move really fast at this point
14:38
Speaker 2: in time, so that's sort of a trend. I still
14:41
Speaker 2: think they can hit. I think the lineup is going
14:43
Speaker 2: to produce runs. Even without Kyle Tucker. There's still enough
14:47
Speaker 2: offense here, and I think especially in comparison to some
14:51
Speaker 2: of the other teams in their division. I still I
14:53
Speaker 2: understand how many runs the Brewers scored last year. It
14:56
Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me if the if the Cub's offense is
14:59
Speaker 2: better than the if they slide back a little bit,
15:01
Speaker 2: deal with some injuries some of the guys that had
15:04
Speaker 2: big years for them don't, we can't bet on that.
15:07
Speaker 2: But I do think that the lineup wise is fine.
15:11
Speaker 2: It really is the pitching that concerns me the most.
15:13
Speaker 2: I think they can score enough runs, you know, for
15:18
Speaker 2: you know, production from Seya Suzuki and just progression from
15:22
Speaker 2: him as a hitter. Michael Bush, regardless of how zayre
15:25
Speaker 2: Hope looks in that Dodger system and that shines off
15:28
Speaker 2: the roads a little bit there too. Bush has been
15:31
Speaker 2: a really good player. Nico Horner still a really good player.
15:34
Speaker 2: Ian Hapkin hit. I think Bawasteros probably is going to
15:37
Speaker 2: be your DH. Maybe he catches twenty to thirty games.
15:40
Speaker 2: I'm still a little questionable about whether they trust him enough.
15:44
Speaker 2: Back there, Kelly had a pretty good year. We know
15:47
Speaker 2: what PCA does when he's locked in. You know, I'm
15:50
Speaker 2: not writing off a guy that had a thirty thirty
15:52
Speaker 2: year because he had a couple of tough months. I
15:55
Speaker 2: think his style of hitting is just going to be
15:57
Speaker 2: like that. He's going to be a guy that's a
15:59
Speaker 2: little bit streaky. So I think you look through the
16:01
Speaker 2: whole lineup and it's like, all right, this is a
16:02
Speaker 2: pretty good lineup. This is a playoff lineup. I think
16:05
Speaker 2: the big question for me though, is, you know, are
16:07
Speaker 2: they going to move out some of these guys that
16:11
Speaker 2: might be secondary pieces, which al kintyre and Casey at
16:14
Speaker 2: this point kind of look that way. Can they package
16:18
Speaker 2: some of those pieces together and upgrade the pitching staff.
16:23
Speaker 2: Can they go into free agency and upgrade the pitching staff.
16:26
Speaker 2: I really think that's the big question mark. It's not
16:28
Speaker 2: a bad team. I don't think it's a poorly run organization,
16:32
Speaker 2: but you know, I do think that the holes in
16:35
Speaker 2: their swing, the stuff that they're missing on right now,
16:38
Speaker 2: drags them down a little bit because it's so important
16:41
Speaker 2: and it doesn't even necessarily have to be a bunch
16:43
Speaker 2: of elite pitchers like we saw with the Blue Jays.
16:46
Speaker 2: I think you just need to have some some sturdy vets,
16:48
Speaker 2: guys that can get deep into games and compete, and
16:52
Speaker 2: I'm I'm just not sure that they have that outside
16:54
Speaker 2: of Kate Horton, and I guess, you know, we'll see
16:58
Speaker 2: with what Matthew Boyd and Amos and tai On are
17:01
Speaker 2: this year. But overall, I think, you know, they need
17:03
Speaker 2: another another one or two, even more so than bringing.
17:07
Speaker 3: Back Kyle Tucker.
17:07
Speaker 2: I honestly think trying to build the top of that
17:10
Speaker 2: that rotation is going to make all the difference in
17:12
Speaker 2: the world.
17:15
Speaker 1: I mean kind of on that topic, and you touched
17:17
Speaker 1: on two of the names, but I'm curious overall twenty
17:20
Speaker 1: twenty five draft, what were your thoughts any intrigue beyond
17:25
Speaker 1: Like Conrad, it feels like an incomplete right now. We
17:28
Speaker 1: just don't know. I get here like a lot of positives,
17:31
Speaker 1: like this guy could be really good. It could be
17:33
Speaker 1: a I don't want to say cam Smith type steel,
17:36
Speaker 1: but a steal a later you know, you know, a
17:39
Speaker 1: later pick in the first round that turns out to
17:41
Speaker 1: be pretty solid. Kepley obviously had good numbers. Outside of that,
17:46
Speaker 1: I don't know who to be excited about, if there's
17:49
Speaker 1: anyone for Cubs fans to be excited about.
17:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm.
17:54
Speaker 2: Really excited about those top two guys in the system.
17:58
Speaker 3: Had Conrad played a little bit longer at Wake.
18:03
Speaker 2: Or you know, had come back and played you know,
18:06
Speaker 2: late in the season, to get some video of him
18:09
Speaker 2: and sort of backfield workouts in October and early November,
18:12
Speaker 2: and he's.
18:12
Speaker 3: The swing looks good again. He's looking healthy again.
18:16
Speaker 2: I know I've heard he probably might play him first
18:19
Speaker 2: base early before he goes back into center field.
18:22
Speaker 3: Some of that might just be with the throwing, et cetera.
18:25
Speaker 2: I will say, like I saw this guy's breakout on
18:28
Speaker 2: the Cape a couple summers ago. You know, at that
18:31
Speaker 2: time was at Marist mid major type school, led the
18:34
Speaker 2: nation in triples. He's a big, tall, strong plus athlete,
18:40
Speaker 2: left handed bat there's probably a better foundational.
18:44
Speaker 3: Plate skills than there were with Cam Smith.
18:46
Speaker 2: Not as much power, but some power and a more
18:49
Speaker 2: realistic shot to be a plus defender. Even if it's
18:53
Speaker 2: you know, plus and right field and more of above
18:56
Speaker 2: average to average and center, that's still a really useful player.
19:00
Speaker 3: Kan Kepley is is is.
19:02
Speaker 2: He's sort of a Brewers player, like a guy who
19:04
Speaker 2: makes a ton of contact, really good swing decisions. I mean,
19:08
Speaker 2: he is a terror on the bases. I mean just
19:12
Speaker 2: a sleep paralysis demon for catchers. Like he's he's got
19:15
Speaker 2: great jumps, he makes great reads, he's super aggressive. I've
19:19
Speaker 2: gotten plus I've gotten plus plus grades in center field.
19:23
Speaker 2: Maybe he doesn't play there because of PCA, but a
19:26
Speaker 2: really good player.
19:27
Speaker 3: Nonetheless, outside of that.
19:29
Speaker 2: I think you're probably praying on Caleb Wing turning into
19:32
Speaker 2: something Josiah Harsorn, who came out of Orange Lutheran, which is,
19:38
Speaker 2: you know, switch hitter, outfielder with some upside. Orange Lutheran,
19:42
Speaker 2: you know, one of the top schools in the CIF,
19:44
Speaker 2: which is probably the top baseball high school baseball conference
19:48
Speaker 2: in the country, just in terms of talent. I think
19:51
Speaker 2: Pierce Coppol is still interesting it's probably a reliever, but
19:54
Speaker 2: it's a lefty with good stuff who's tall, that's had
19:58
Speaker 2: a ton of injuries that he you can kind of
20:00
Speaker 2: figure something out there.
20:01
Speaker 3: There might be some upside that's kind of an interesting pick.
20:04
Speaker 2: But outside of that, I mean, they're not doing the
20:07
Speaker 2: sort of things that we'll say the Brewers do. We
20:09
Speaker 2: had an article up on this. They're not finding those
20:12
Speaker 2: like high upside under scouted, undercommitted high school players where
20:18
Speaker 2: you can you know, get some really.
20:19
Speaker 3: Big wins in rounds eleven to twenty.
20:23
Speaker 2: You're not seeing that sort of approach to the bonus pool,
20:27
Speaker 2: and I think, you know, maybe that's kind of limiting,
20:31
Speaker 2: but you know, we'll see if they change their approach
20:34
Speaker 2: in that sense.
20:34
Speaker 3: I think teams are starting to smart smarten up to that.
20:37
Speaker 2: So some of it, I do think is just the
20:39
Speaker 2: approach in the draft, and you know, I don't know,
20:42
Speaker 2: you know, the first five rounds there's always some interesting names.
20:46
Speaker 2: After that, they're a little bit more boring than some
20:48
Speaker 2: other teams who might take some bigger shots later or
20:51
Speaker 2: you know, pull some bonus money down. But I think
20:53
Speaker 2: some of it is just you know, scouting under scouted
20:56
Speaker 2: areas when you have a smaller scouting department area guys
21:01
Speaker 2: covering more territory, You're probably gonna maybe miss on some
21:05
Speaker 2: of those values.
21:08
Speaker 4: I feel like the last time we talked to you,
21:10
Speaker 4: Jeff was probably leading into the trade deadline and Kate
21:16
Speaker 4: Horton was sort of churning a corner. As someone who's
21:20
Speaker 4: tracked him for a long time, what was your take
21:25
Speaker 4: on his development this year? Because for all the issues
21:29
Speaker 4: as the Cubs did have this year, their playoff team
21:31
Speaker 4: with like Pete crow Armstrong getting MVP consideration, Kate Horton
21:37
Speaker 4: putting his name, you know, at least in a second
21:39
Speaker 4: half sort of cy Young conversation, what's your outlook on
21:44
Speaker 4: CAD now and what sort of popped it in your mind?
21:49
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think you know.
21:50
Speaker 2: You look at at Horton's season command continue to tick up,
21:55
Speaker 2: which you know was even an issue at points in
21:58
Speaker 2: time in twenty twenty four. Granted, some of those Triple
22:02
Speaker 2: A numbers might be be a mirage because he was
22:04
Speaker 2: pitching in Triple A where they were still testing out
22:07
Speaker 2: the ABS system, not the Challenge system.
22:10
Speaker 3: ABS was awful.
22:12
Speaker 2: The zones were super inconsistent, they were really really small.
22:16
Speaker 2: It was a smaller strike zone than pitches were seen
22:19
Speaker 2: in the major leagues. Some ways that might have helped them.
22:22
Speaker 2: I think seeing that big development in terms of the
22:26
Speaker 2: command finding multiple ways to generate outs, whether it's ground
22:31
Speaker 2: balls or weak contact beyond just you know, trying to
22:35
Speaker 2: blow it by guys and get swinging strikes. I think,
22:39
Speaker 2: you know, the addition of the sinker, that we didn't
22:41
Speaker 2: throw it a ton, I think it just got guys
22:43
Speaker 2: a little bit more off that that forcing fastball shape.
22:46
Speaker 2: It's kind of a cut ride shape without a ton
22:49
Speaker 2: of ride. You know, the slider is still good, but
22:52
Speaker 2: I think the variation, you know, within the pitch mix,
22:56
Speaker 2: the fact that he was less of a three pitch
22:58
Speaker 2: pitcher and really a five pitch.
23:01
Speaker 3: I think, you know, really allowed him to have success.
23:04
Speaker 2: I think the positive, the silver lining to kind of
23:06
Speaker 2: take in all this if you're a Cubs fan is
23:09
Speaker 2: guys usually get better after their first year, particularly on
23:12
Speaker 2: the pitching side. Hitters might slide back a little bit
23:14
Speaker 2: as the book gets out there, Pitchers usually progress and
23:18
Speaker 2: get a little bit better.
23:19
Speaker 3: They get more comfortable.
23:21
Speaker 2: That first initial ascent and taste of the majors usually
23:25
Speaker 2: beats pitchers up a little bit. He didn't get beat
23:28
Speaker 2: up that bad, and I think that there are probably
23:31
Speaker 2: some ways for this to go where he's getting more
23:33
Speaker 2: strikeouts and he takes another step forward over the next
23:36
Speaker 2: couple of years.
23:37
Speaker 3: So he was a really promising development.
23:40
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, one of the few pieces
23:42
Speaker 2: in that rotation that you feel really good about going
23:45
Speaker 2: into twenty twenty six.
23:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're both Kate Horton fans just talking
23:50
Speaker 1: to him that you can see the intangibles are what
23:53
Speaker 1: you need to succeed in the big leagues, especially as
23:56
Speaker 1: a bitcher. Two names I'm curious about. One obviously a
24:01
Speaker 1: top prospect. He Jefferson Rojas made it all the way
24:05
Speaker 1: to Triple A but struggled in Triple A. Should there
24:07
Speaker 1: be I mean, he's young. Is that a concern? The
24:11
Speaker 1: struggles the results. I'm not looking at data. I don't
24:15
Speaker 1: have any all that information. I don't know how much
24:18
Speaker 1: of that is is randomness and how much of that
24:20
Speaker 1: is you know, maybe he was just overwhelmed in Triple A.
24:23
Speaker 1: Other guy who put up numbers, no clue if he's
24:26
Speaker 1: actually any good. Is Owen a Ors who had a
24:29
Speaker 1: good UH had a good AFL. Both those guys. Curious
24:32
Speaker 1: your thoughts on on where they stand right now prospect wise.
24:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think with Rojas, he's been so
24:41
Speaker 2: young at every level he's been at, and for the
24:45
Speaker 2: most part, like he's continued to produce, like struggle at
24:48
Speaker 2: double A, you know, over the second half of the season.
24:53
Speaker 2: I think some of that was was bad bad at
24:55
Speaker 2: ball luck frankly, but he's also I mean super young.
25:01
Speaker 2: I mean he turned, you know, twenty years old at
25:04
Speaker 2: the end of April, so entered the season as a
25:07
Speaker 2: nineteen year old, so he's far ahead of where he
25:09
Speaker 2: should be. It was a really good year though for
25:12
Speaker 2: him in the Midwest League, where he's still really young.
25:15
Speaker 2: For the Midwest League, and I think we know as
25:17
Speaker 2: folks that have lived in the northern part of the country,
25:22
Speaker 2: the early months in the Midwest League are cold, man,
25:25
Speaker 2: and it's really hard to hit in cold weather. Once
25:28
Speaker 2: it warms up a little bit in May, things start
25:30
Speaker 2: to get going. He was pretty consistent there. I don't
25:34
Speaker 2: have a lot of questions regarding Rojas at the plate.
25:40
Speaker 2: There's a lot of contact, good swing decisions. The evs
25:45
Speaker 2: aren't great, but they're good enough for sort of age
25:50
Speaker 2: based that you can project him to have forty five
25:54
Speaker 2: fifty sort of power. You know, he runs pretty well,
25:59
Speaker 2: not like a demon on the bases, but a guy
26:01
Speaker 2: that could probably steal fifteen to twenty bags for you.
26:04
Speaker 2: I think my bigger question marks with him are in
26:07
Speaker 2: the field. The hands and actions aren't great. The internal
26:11
Speaker 2: clock isn't great. He's athletic, but just makes a lot
26:16
Speaker 2: of bad moves and like extra effort plays, dives, jumps,
26:21
Speaker 2: that sort of thing.
26:22
Speaker 3: The arm is still really good, so I.
26:25
Speaker 2: Don't think he's gonna play shortstop. There's still a chance
26:27
Speaker 2: that he's a pretty good third baseman or second basement.
26:31
Speaker 2: I think he kind of fits more into a like
26:33
Speaker 2: a utility type of role, where it's a guy that
26:36
Speaker 2: can hit, he can run, he can play a bunch
26:38
Speaker 2: and do a bunch of things for you situationally, can
26:40
Speaker 2: hit lefties. But the big question mark is, you know,
26:44
Speaker 2: where is his everyday position. Some of that stuff might
26:47
Speaker 2: get worked out, but just watching the tape and I
26:50
Speaker 2: watched pretty much every defensive play that he made throughout
26:53
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty five season, and those are the question
26:56
Speaker 2: marks that came away with I was a little less
26:58
Speaker 2: impressed than I had been in previous years regarding the
27:01
Speaker 2: glove and the defense.
27:02
Speaker 3: The arm is still there.
27:04
Speaker 2: It's not like he's a thirty defender, but it's more
27:08
Speaker 2: like a forty five, and you kind of hope that
27:09
Speaker 2: he gets to a fifty at second base or third base.
27:15
Speaker 3: So an interesting player, you know, I'm I'm kind of
27:20
Speaker 3: on the fence as to where this goes.
27:21
Speaker 2: I think it's probably more like an average regular than
27:25
Speaker 2: a potential above average middle infielder, which is what we
27:28
Speaker 2: thought a couple of years ago, when you know, he first,
27:32
Speaker 2: you know, made a state side debut here and was
27:34
Speaker 2: was pretty good.
27:37
Speaker 3: Sorry, who was the other player that you mentioned, Owen Airs?
27:42
Speaker 2: I mean he was kind of on the cusp of
27:44
Speaker 2: the top thirty entering AFL. I try not to take
27:48
Speaker 2: too much away from the Arizona Fall League, so a
27:52
Speaker 2: little bit less on on the offense, a little bit
27:54
Speaker 2: less on the bat. I think what people were really
27:57
Speaker 2: buying into talking to scouts from outside the organization that
28:00
Speaker 2: were maybe getting a first look on Airs was the
28:02
Speaker 2: catching defense is pretty good. You know, this is an
28:05
Speaker 2: organization that needs some good defensive catchers. There's a few,
28:09
Speaker 2: but he's probably the one that has the best balance
28:11
Speaker 2: of defense and offense. So I think he's, you know,
28:15
Speaker 2: probably a player that's gonna rank somewhere in that like
28:21
Speaker 2: eighteen to thirty range, on the top thirty, and I
28:25
Speaker 2: think is definitely a player that's put himself into position
28:28
Speaker 2: to either be in trade conversations or you know, at least,
28:33
Speaker 2: you know, in consideration for the Cubs in terms of
28:36
Speaker 2: like a long term backup catching option or something like that.
28:39
Speaker 2: He's an interesting player. I think it was, you know,
28:40
Speaker 2: a nice breakout season for Airs.
28:44
Speaker 4: Hey, Jeff, last thing, we love these lists. Cubs fans
28:47
Speaker 4: love these lists. The rankings always drop people's attention just
28:52
Speaker 4: for our listeners, Like, what else are you are you
28:54
Speaker 4: working on? What can Cubs fans check out the rest
28:58
Speaker 4: of this offseason in terms of your coverage at Baseball America.
29:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we're still rolling out all the top tens.
29:05
Speaker 2: We're finishing up the National League this week them were
29:08
Speaker 2: rolling into the American League.
29:09
Speaker 3: Over the next three weeks. We turn in the handbook.
29:13
Speaker 2: The friday before Christmas, We take off a couple of weeks,
29:16
Speaker 2: and then once the new year starts, we start to
29:18
Speaker 2: roll out all the top thirties.
29:19
Speaker 3: The new Top one hundred list.
29:21
Speaker 2: But in the short term, we're all focused on forty
29:24
Speaker 2: man deadline day, which is to day, and then we'll
29:28
Speaker 2: start rolling out some of our Rule five previews, which
29:30
Speaker 2: is for the real real prospect sikos. Yeah, ticket to
29:35
Speaker 2: the sickos or into the Rule five. So that's something
29:37
Speaker 2: that via JJ spent a lot of time on. We
29:40
Speaker 2: love doing it because there's there's nothing better than trying
29:43
Speaker 2: to discover the twenty six man on a really bad
29:46
Speaker 2: teams ross.
29:48
Speaker 1: I mean, some of those guys turn into a star
29:50
Speaker 1: every once in a while, right, so it's always fun
29:52
Speaker 1: to be on it. Thanks so much for your time.
29:54
Speaker 1: That's Chef Ponce with Baseball America. Make sure to check
29:57
Speaker 1: out the Cubs Top ten. You can go re his
30:00
Speaker 1: chat with fans all that good stuff. I'm sure he's
30:03
Speaker 1: working on plenty more lists. Thanks so much for your time, Jeff,
30:06
Speaker 1: this is Northside Territory. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe,
30:09
Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel. Check out Baseball America. Subscribe
30:13
Speaker 1: to The Athletic where Patrick and I are on top
30:15
Speaker 1: of all things Cubs. Thanks for listening to everyone. Take