Latest / The Growth Project / Episode 350: Are Dynasties Over in the New Era of College Football?
Transcript
- 0:00You.
- 0:03Welcome to the Growth Project, a podcast brought to you by amylose. In the studio today, doctor Dr. Brannon, joined by Doctor Corey Schafer to talk a little bit of college football. How's that sound to you over there, doc? That sounds great. I don't know, we you know, we're six weeks into the season, and we've yet we're late college football.
- 0:24We've got some eager listeners out there who want to want some insight, so. Well, we've definitely, because I've got a feeling our listeners did not wait six weeks to start watching college football. That's right. So they've got plenty on their minds. So we're going to dive in today. So so Corey, why don't we start here? There was a really interesting quote last week.
- 0:44I think it was. But courtesy of coach Lane Kiffin who is he's always good for a quote or two, some of which we would talk about on this podcast, others we would not. But can you lay that out a little bit for us? Like, what did he say? What did he put out there in the media last week that really got our attention?
- 0:59Yeah. So he told ESPN on October 1st, quote, in my opinion, dynasties are over. He went on to explain, he said Alabama with coach Saban and then Kirby at Georgia, where they have those rosters year in, year out. And there would be a bunch of wins by 30 points in the conference. Those days are done. Now, as as a guy here who works with Georgia, I have a feeling you have something to say about that.
- 1:24I hope they're not totally done for the record. Right. But that's, you know, and then of course, I'm sure there are plenty of probing questions. And he went on to to add a couple of other things that, that we'll get into.
- 1:35just out of the gate, like that was his point. Dynasties are over.
- 1:39And again, that's something I mean, you mentioned before we started, Kiffin Kevin is willing to tell the truth and call it like it is.
- 1:47And, you know, I think he's he's got a pulse on this thing that, maybe others don't. And this is what he's stating, and I think, I think there's some evidence at this point that maybe there's there's something here. But yeah, that's that I think is a good starting point for us just to, break that down and talk about why that is and what are the implications of that and so on.
- 2:08Well, just as a footnote, I find Lane Kiffin to be pretty refreshing, honestly, because, you know, everyone's familiar with that term of coach speak. And there are some strategic reasons that make a lot of sense why coaches are wise to get up to the microphone and primarily do coach coach speak, but he's not really one of those. He's not that right.
- 2:29No. And again, coach speak describe define what coach speak is to you. Coach speak would be standing at the podium and saying things about your opposing team that you're about to play that really aren't that true? Would be one of them. And then basically talking about the landscape of what's going on in a way that would be no different from what you've always done, quite honestly.
- 2:54Yeah. To me, coach speak is like the willingness to say nothing about everything. Yeah, everything about nothing. Yeah. Yeah. That's what I said. I learned from from one of the pro baseball players that I worked with in terms of media training, how they're taught to, you know, talk to the media. Is the, the mushroom technique.
- 3:17I've heard this, but I can't remember what the mushroom is. Yeah. So the mushroom technique is, keep him in the dark and feed him crap. That's right. And that feels like a lot of coach speak, right? You're just saying, like, the most obvious things. I mean, you hear it all the time in game interviews. You hear it, right?
- 3:35Like, that's the epitome of it. We got to play better. We got to execute, right? We just need to run the ball. We need to stop the run. You know, we need to get off the field on third down. Like, it's just. You're saying something, but you really saying nothing? Right. Here's my here's my best example.
- 3:50I told the guys before the game this was going to be a line of scrimmage kind of game. That's right. When is it ever not a line? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So so that's what I think in terms of you know Kiffin. Right. That's kind of what's refreshing about him is he's not just going to give you the political check the box answer.
- 4:06He's going to tell you what he honestly thinks. Yeah. Generally speaking. So so why is this topic front of mind for Kiffin and plenty of other people? Since we've seen in the college football season, I think there's a number of reasons. The most glaring one that was only revealed more this this past weekend in the games is, distribution of talent.
- 4:28And then the trickle down of that is just how much parity you see in college football. Like, I feel like six weeks into the season, we have seen more games that would surprise you than we've seen in a long, long time. And we're only six weeks in. Yeah I think it all comes back to just overarching, the college football landscape, how much it has changed and those changes sort of yielding, as you noted, just tighter margins than ever before.
- 4:59Yeah. That's not there aren't the same gaps in talent distribution and so on that sort of historically there have been in college football, at least in the last 20, 30 years. Right. Yeah. So let's walk through that, because I think probably a lot of our listeners aren't necessarily completely up to speed on what that has meant practically.
- 5:23And so maybe an easy way to do that would be to kind of connect, recruiting in, in nil, which if you're not yet familiar back on July the 1st, there was a new law passed that allowed, university to directly pay players. All powerful four schools are working with, a minimum budget of $20.5 million that they distribute across the sports.
- 5:47However they decide to do that. Most nearly every school in power for football is, distributing the overwhelming majority of that pool to football. So these football programs, whoever they are, whether it's Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss, whoever it might be, you have this pool of money to then spend and what people aren't necessarily aware of. Do a practical example.
- 6:10Let's imagine just take any position group from a recruiting standpoint. We'll just pick tight ends for and let's say you have the top ten ranked tight ends coming out of high school in the country, whereas in the past, some of these, you know, blueblood high upper tier programs could really stockpile this talent. It's changed a lot. And so where so take, you know, whoever that number one tight end in the country is, he is going to be offered a certain sum of money to go play wherever it might be.
- 6:44And then once he makes his decision, he's off the board. Well, whoever got him would also love to sign the nine remaining tight ends that are in the top ten in his group. But guess what? There are all these other schools that have a top tier tight end budget. They've yet to spend that they can then go and use on the nine remaining top ten players.
- 7:05And so whoever got that first guy off the board, you're not getting the other nine, because whatever you paid the guy that you did successfully land, they're going to be paying that or more all these other schools for the remaining players. Yeah, I think it comes back to more than anything. Well, this is really hitting on two points, but, players now more than ever are going to follow the money.
- 7:31That's what it looks like. And so, so coming coming back to the core of it, it's like player mobility is at an all time high right. And especially many listeners will be familiar but some may not. This is not like the NFL where you are signing a contract for X period of time. I mean, these players literally within one year will transfer to multiple schools.
- 7:53Yeah they can. Right. And now I think things are starting to catch up, where players will have to sign contracts and that type of thing. And yeah, but but anyways, the, at the heart of it is player mobility and even Kiffin, he went on to say in the same interview he said, quote, when I was at Alabama, they'd be like, go watch the outside linebackers.
- 8:12And there's six of them over there that are first round picks. That's not going to happen anymore because if they don't play, then they're going to leave. They can't keep them all anymore. And that's kind of your point. Whether it's in recruiting or it's like, hey, we already have. Here's our roster of outside linebackers, tight ends, whatever the essentially the second these players sniff like, oh, I'm not going to get the reps that I want.
- 8:34Like I'll just go somewhere else elsewhere. And at the moment there's not really any rules regulating against that and that fluidity of rosters has is what Kevin is saying here is going to be a real challenge for any team to just stockpile and retain talent. Can't build depth, right? You can't build depth. And so where's all this leading what we're talking about, as you said, Corey, significantly tighter margins when it comes to the outcomes.
- 9:02Because you think you just flush out the example we just talked about. Let's let's take, you know, pick an easy position group like your offensive line. And you have your, your, you know, your first team O-line. Well, these guys who are not on the first team. Oh line to your point, Cory. They probably left. They probably got a great opportunity to go play on the first time.
- 9:23First team offer to land somewhere else, which then means as you get into your season, inevitably things happen. You have injuries and guess, guess who's the next man up? Probably someone who's never even played college football. Yeah, like there's a good chance that you were counting on true freshman, which is not been the case in the past in pivotal positions.
- 9:44And so guess what? These games get tighter and tighter and tighter because there's a greater distribution of talent. And teams aren't able to what Kiffin said have this dynasty level talent base. Right. So you take player mobility combined with just more distributed talent across a conference or just in general across college football. And you're seeing less and less of the just the, the, the domination.
- 10:07Yeah. That we were familiar with for again, the last 20 or 30 years in, in college football especially.
- 10:13Yeah, I mean, look at the example of this. I mean, even as recently this weekend, one of my neighbors down the street, one of my best friends, it was a former athlete at Vanderbilt, of course, to this day, big Vanderbilt fan, and was a little disappointed that they lost to Alabama over the weekend.
- 10:27But I had to kind of stop him and say, hold on a second. College GameDay decided to show up in Tuscaloosa, Alabama for Alabama to play Vanderbilt in the previous version and renditions of of college football. I don't think that would have happened. That sentence never would have been under now. That's right. No chance. So the other the other piece here that's relevant, just just to come back around to this landscape is now with conference expansion for one.
- 10:59Right. So the addition of new teams, right. New teams in the SEC, new teams in the Big Ten and so on. And then now, a move to a nine game conference schedule. Right. That just means the number of tough quality opponents that the team has to face every year just went up. Yep. Like that's one less quote if you're familiar college football language here.
- 11:21One less cupcake on the calendar and one more in conference opponent. Yep. That you have to face.
- 11:27Right. So everything that we just mentioned right. More distribution of talent across the conference player mobility. And now this added piece of more teams in these conferences. Plus extra conference games. There go your margins, your margins, which means you're playing harder, more physical games, more injuries.
- 11:47And it's yet another game on your schedule where it is much, much harder to get guys in the game who wouldn't be getting in the game otherwise, to get reps, to get them happier so they won't leave. And it's harder now to to even develop talent. Correct that that's, you know, deeper on your roster, even just freshman and recruits you're bringing in.
- 12:06Yep. Like if they're not seeing the field, how quickly they can be impatient and want to leave 100%. So so so we have all of these things, all these these dynamics converging and creating what I would call kind of like the new World of college football. And we see all this and what we do in those and from my perspective was like, well guess what.
- 12:27Here's where we come in. So Corey, like, how do you see it in the sense of given all of these things were discussing and given the tighter margins than ever, how does the world performance psychology fit in more, more notably now maybe than ever? Yeah. I mean, there's probably a couple of things, I mean, I think one and maybe the most, at the most simplest level, but also probably the most challenging thing to do is this highlights the importance of having a culture where players do want to stick around, even if it does mean being patient.
- 12:57Yeah. And again, that is much easier said than done in this current landscape. But, I don't think that's necessarily something that you can just push to the side. And because of the challenges due to the landscape, if that makes sense. Right. It's all right. It's still something that we have to prioritize and value. And again, given the work that we do in this space, I just think there's a premium on it now.
- 13:25More so now arguably than ever. Yeah. Well, like you think about whether it's in football, whether it's in whatever industry, some of our listeners might be in, if and when a person decides to, to be a part of something like what? Why do they stick around? Well, that's what you're talking about right now, especially in college football.
- 13:42Right. Like I want to be a part of something. I want to feel like I have relationships that are real, that there's authenticity involved. But someone's got my back. Now, you probably don't have the option to say, hey, we're not going to pay you even though all these other people are, but we're expect you to stick it out.
- 13:56We're not talking about it. We're not naive to this, but you're trying to create differentiators. Yes, that's the key. Can you create differentiators so that as a person thinks about where they want to be, culture becomes a competitive advantage and it will not happen without, as you're saying, a thoughtful, systematic, ongoing plan. And some of this too, is culture slash like coach development.
- 14:21You know, you could throw that in. This is one of the same yet. Right. And so the reason I say that is again just like leader development that we would do, you know, with a company or with an organization, it's man, it's great. Now if you, if you know X's and O's and you're some savant, that's awesome.
- 14:37But if you can't relate to communicate with your players that they want to play for you and stick around for multiple years. Yep. It doesn't matter. Right. So like scheme and stuff. Sure. That's great. That's really important. But at some point, culture over time is probably going to trump that. Yeah, there are a lot of people out there from a technician standpoint, understand football incredibly well and can dial it up and all of the above, but.
- 15:01Right, I mean, that, you think about the wear and tear in the grind of a season. I can't remember if I've ever heard a player say something about, gosh, I love playing for coach who ever so much because he's he's such a great, like, designer of place, you know, or he's, he's such he's so great at like dialing up the perfect blitz at the perfect time.
- 15:22Like that's not how generally people think about those things. Well, and even there's probably an argument out there, I'm sure some of our listeners would say just, you know, like, well, you can still go pay a couple million bucks and get like, I don't know, I think Texas Tech was considered to have like, the best transporter class in this past cycle.
- 15:40And that's showing up on the field for him. Right. And that's my point is like, okay, well, accruing all the talent is one thing. Getting it all to kind of gel and play together is a whole other ballgame. And that comes down to the things that we're talking about here. Right. What's the culture or your program, the relationship between players and coaches and so on.
- 15:58So I don't necessarily fully agree with just like, oh, well, they can just go buy more talent. Like, yeah, no, that's just not how it works man. It there are plenty of examples in fact, where I would argue, that's highlighted. Right. We're just accruing all the talent. Doesn't just result in more wins or a national championship or whatever.
- 16:20We'll pick an easy game from this past weekend,
- 16:21Penn State UCLA I'm pretty sure I know the more talented team in that game. But that's not the way it went, right?
- 16:29That's not the way it went. So yeah, I absolutely agree. And so let's let's make a connection here for just a second. Two we're talking primarily kind of our launch point is college football today. But on the whole concept of competing in a realm of really tight margins, many of our listeners who are in the business world of various industries, that's the only world you've ever lived in.
- 16:51Where it's always tight, where it's highly competitive, where the talent is distribute distributed extremely evenly, and they yet aren't necessarily focusing on the things we're talking about today, which our first point in this is just been about culture and building and sustaining. But those are those folks that are listening and thinking like, well, gosh, this tight margin world we're describing, that's the world I live in.
- 17:14So we also really want to be challenging you guys to think about, well, what does this mean for you? What does this mean for your industry and within your team? Yeah. All right. What else do we want to know. So certainly the cultural piece is huge. Another one I would add to the list is the premium. This places on a team's ability to execute mental skills that are really high level.
- 17:35And let's just play it out right. So talent is more evenly distributed. It's going to lead to tighter games, closer scores, pressure moments. The tighter the game is, the more pressures involved. And if you lack the mental skills needed to be at your best when it matters most, you won't be at your best when it matters most. And so whereas in the past, what are we saying?
- 18:00Maybe the translation of this is in a 12 game regular season. In the old world of college football, if you're a top tier team, whoever that is, Oregon, you know, Georgia doesn't really matter how many times a year where you in a dogfight? I don't know, like just make it up three four and the regular season like like how many times a year were you in a really tight game where you were feeling huge, huge pressure?
- 18:27Well, and you could probably circle those before the season that started. Great point. You knew ahead of time, you knew ahead of time you could you could actually prepare for it. Specifically if you was 100%, you already knew, like like when Oregon was headed to Penn State a couple of weeks ago, they already knew it was going to be a challenge again.
- 18:43Yeah. No surprise. So that's a it's a great point is you already knew. Whereas now you have all of those plus the games that you didn't necessarily anticipate being tough are really hard. And I think increasingly will begin circling like all the games and thinking of them differently. But go back to our point here is if you aren't training and developing the mental skills needed to combat performance anxiety, if you aren't training, and grit and resilience if you aren't training in mental toughness skills, you're behind.
- 19:16And when these moments that are jumping on your team and, negatively impacting their performance, you got to be sure they have the skills they need to have to know how to handle it. No, I, I agree with you. I agree with you 100%. And you know, we we were I speak from Oregon standpoint to start their year.
- 19:41You look at their schedule and they weren't didn't necessarily have the biggest tests. You know, the first couple weeks especially
- 19:48but you know week three, week four or week three. Excuse me. We at least start conference play. It's like, all right, this is another big Ten team. Yeah. And we're on the road. And even those you know my anticipation coming in is just like these are these are the types of challenges now that does it fully move the needle like a Penn State wide out.
- 20:06No, no. But this is a really important step for us just to see get a taste of like what it's like to play on a road, travel across a time zone or two, potentially just just a little more resistance than we've met in the past, you know, in the previous couple of games. So there is that element of like, okay, we know this is maybe just one challenge, a smaller challenge ahead of many bigger ones.
- 20:30But there was still inherently moments in there of like, I kind of hope our guys get a little bit uncomfortable in and feel. Yeah, a little bit differently because, man, we are going to need this as much as possible. It's almost like now you you need to you kind of want it to be that way because, you know, down the line, especially, you're not really sure when it's going to show up, but you know, it's going to show it's coming.
- 20:56Who was that game against that was this northwestern who's not like a, you know, a necessarily a scary opponent. Yeah. But it's like it's on the road. And for our guys, it was it was the equivalent of like a 9 a.m.. Oh that's right kick. Right. So like there were some weird little challenges about it playing in a stadium with like 12,000 people.
- 21:16Yeah. That's it. Yeah. It's a temporary stadium. They played 12,000 people. It was 9 a.m.. And our guys minds, you know, and it's just kind of like, okay, this is this is at least a test and some weird things about this that make this hard. Right. Let's see how we handle it. Right. You know, so anyways, the point is just it's almost now where at least my perspective is I want players to anticipate challenge.
- 21:41And every week, like you described I don't. And I think that's part of our job. Right? Is we don't ever want them to feel so confident that borderline arrogant or complacent. They think they can just walk in and like, yeah, we'll just out talent them, right? Even if that's the case, that's not a great mindset to to be establishing.
- 21:57So and that's yeah I think that's the way you're describing that is spot on in the sense too, of. So those games are according to the trends in the data. Those are harder now than they once were. Yeah. And which means that like players are being put on the spot and, and pushed and stressed and challenged mentally with greater consistency than they were, than they have been in the past, which again, circles us all the way back to why is it so vital to train mental skills?
- 22:25Why is it so vital to work on your culture? Hugely important. And then a third one I'll toss out, maybe for you to expand on is why does leadership development become increasingly important in this new world? Yeah. I mean, again, for for all the reasons we've we've talked about to a degree. Right. It's if you think about off the field versus on the field, on the field, like you just mentioned, to have somebody on the field to lead, for it, to have somebody on the field, too.
- 22:52It was really refreshing to see one of the recap videos for Morgen, and how coaches, players, everybody at moments in that, in that Penn State game, like deliberate, like, hey, like, let's take a breath. Yeah. You know what I mean? Like, that was cool to see. That was a proud moment for me to to watch them in the moment of, like, very stressful situations be doing that.
- 23:14And so, yeah, I think on the field, it's obvious, like, you want somebody who can kind of take command and, you know, push the guys in the right direction off the field. I think it matters too, because that gets back to the piece about culture, right? I think you have good strong leadership, in the locker room, player led teams.
- 23:32Yeah. That that's going to impact the culture in a really positive way. Again, I think that's indicative of a healthy environment, probably one that players are more likely to want to stay in. Yep. No, I'm that was where I was headed to the last part of what you said is the locker room. Because, you know, I don't know what it's like at Oregon.
- 23:51I know that I've never been in our locker room and seen a coach in there. And and even if I'm talking, like, not on game day, obviously, but like the locker room during practice practices week in and week out, of course they've been in there before, but never that I've seen. And beyond that, if you need coaches in your locker room to regulate things like you're in big trouble.
- 24:17So you've, you've, I don't know, a time in the history of college football where leaders in the locker room have ever been more important. So then that gets back to what do we know and understand philosophically about leadership development is, you got to work on it. I've never met an 18 to 22 year old student athlete who had everything in a college football or really any sport, who he or she had, everything they need to have to be a great leader.
- 24:45Heck, I've never met that in C-level executives who are in their 50s. It's a it's a process of training and development and you have to work at it. So we are we would be extremely naive to expect that today's college football player on his own can just know how to handle the complexity of what's going on in locker rooms.
- 25:05And again, there are challenges that challenges to that as we already described. Right. Because it's one thing to to try to get the leaders of your current team, developed into strong leaders. But then it's another thing to invest in and try to start establishing some leaders that can come behind them. That's right. Right. So investing in sort of your next team, your next generation, of leaders again, challenge because of everything we talked about earlier.
- 25:30Right. Like they get up and leave and all that. But I do think sort of empowering them and showing them that, hey, we are an invested of you, we can see that you kind of have what it takes to potentially be a great leader for this team in the future. We want to start investing in you now. Yeah, again, that's just another to me, probably another element that maybe a guy is more likely to stick around if they feel some of that coming from the coaching staff.
- 25:54Yeah, you got to move far enough back on the pipeline to be affecting people who are earlier in their career, there's no doubt. And for retention standpoint, it makes a heck of a lot of sense. Yeah to be doing that. So I mean, to me those are three huge categories of leadership mental skills training and cultural growth, development, sustainment.
- 26:15Where in this new world of college football, I think that the role that we're playing in as performance psychologist is only going to get more and more important. I think it's going to grow more and more. What else would you add to that list and anything else? No, I mean, those are three pretty big, you know, broad buckets that you can lump a lot into.
- 26:36I guess the other piece that you could throw out there is related to like recruiting talent and that type of thing, the identification of it sort of finding the right fit. Yeah. For your program, there's probably a premium on that as much as there has ever been. And again, now with, only so much money to spend as opposed to just stockpiling, right selection becomes very, very important.
- 26:59Know this has become more glaring. Exactly. And I know that's something that, again, our listeners in the business world can certainly understand and appreciate, the identification of talent and retaining of talent and all that. But yeah, I would throw that in there and just. I think you have to be better than ever at making sure that who you are going to get, especially if you're paying for them.
- 27:20Yeah, right. Big investment. Correct. Like there is such a big investment now. Like a true like financial hit to your team. Yeah I mean men there there are players on every roster I would bet who are making 18 to 22 year olds, as you described, making $1 million, who hardly see the field. Yeah, I'm sure there are. You know, that's a costly investment.
- 27:40Exactly. That's what we're talking about. So, yeah, in terms of now, like, there are real tangible resources to point to with that. And so selection, is probably going to be as important as ever. And just, you know, let me throw this fact out here too, that we forgot to mention earlier, just that we need any more evidence of how hard it is to really know where you stand and how the distribution of talent has changed things.
- 28:04So the the here's the preseason top five AP poll. Number one, Texas. Number two, Penn State number. Number four three was Ohio State. Sorry, three was Ohio State, four was Clemson. And then who was five. Do you know? I can't remember. Was it you guys? It might have been you guys. We were not in the top five in most polls, but.
- 28:32So at any rate. Okay, let's just focus on number one, number two and number four. So one Texas, two Penn State, four Clemson. Those three teams have a combined record of eight and seven currently. And or any of them ranked. Great question I don't think anything. So I don't think any of them are ranked. I don't think so.
- 28:50So I you know, we are not college football historians, but I would love to know. And I feel like I probably know the answer, but that's never happened before. Within six weeks, three teams in the top five are no longer in the top 25. Yeah, probably be an Aflac trivia question this weekend on game day. I would have a hard time, if someone told me that had happened before I would need to see evidence of it.
- 29:16And so, like to think that that's what's going on. LSU is up there, weren't they? Not. My mind's just running to try to figure out who there's who. There's teams who are sorry. You might be right, you might be right. But at minimum, we've got these three. Yeah. At minimum, we've got three teams in the top five that are no longer ranked.
- 29:34Really, in week six. That's extremely different. Yeah. Extremely different. And so again, you know, just what I here's what I think is going to happen. When the landscape when any landscape shifts this dramatically this quickly, it puts people on their heels to some degree. But in time, I think more and more increasingly people will be begin asking the question of like, what would you now, like, where do we go from here?
- 30:03Where how do we grab Ahold of any sense of a competitive advantage? How do we grasp, how do we find 1% here or 2% there? And I think that what we do in the space that we're in is going to become something that people are trying to get their hands around because they see the importance and, recognize how vital it is to success.
- 30:25Yeah, I agree, I don't I don't necessarily think, but but then it'll just be an arms race. Could be to go potentially, you know, sort of get the right resources in those spaces. So it'll be interesting to see which that's a whole nother discussion. Resources are going to be more of a premium. Yeah. Yeah. Because I think you're you know, that's a whole nother podcast perhaps.
- 30:45But there are plenty of coaches out there who, if they could give back $20 million of their $100 million facility, they would, you know, they would gladly give up the bells and whistles that amount of 20 million bucks in exchange for $20 million to spend on players. Yeah, that's right. There's no doubt that would. So we'll see the insurance.
- 31:04See where that goes. Okay. So I know we need to kind of move toward a finish here. Maybe a final thing I would want to say is I think there are a lot of principles that we've talked about that are, applicable way, way outside of college football when you're talking about culture and mental skills and leadership development.
- 31:23We could we could take those variables and they could touch down in any industry at any time as, key pieces of the puzzle. Yeah, I agree, I think, when you mentioned it earlier, college football is really just the vehicle, right? If we're talking about some more important broad topics than just necessarily football, but yep. Okay. Well, thank you to our listeners for tuning in.
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