Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 109 - 9/2/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 109 - 9/2/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 109 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:33
Happy Monday, but more importantly, happy September,
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happy football season. That's right.
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When you flip the page from August to September, you know
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what that means? That means we are now officially
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entering football season. So we already have some college
0:46
football sweats under our belt. And then we have the NFL kicking
0:50
off this Thursday. I'm already looking at the line
0:53
for the opener here between Baltimore and Kansas City.
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I got to tell you guys, Kansas City currently right now, the
0:59
Chiefs are only getting around 40% of bets, but 50% of money
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they open -2 1/2 again, creeping up to -3 at some shops.
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Will we have a fade the trendy dog play in Kansas City?
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Stay tuned for that. We'll give it a couple more
1:11
days, let the dust settle. That's my early take on
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Baltimore KC. But anyway, guys, we got a lot
1:17
to get to on today's podcast because we have, First off, a
1:20
four pack of sweats to discuss for today, including three Major
1:24
League Baseball bats. I know it's football season, but
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we're not going to give up on MLB.
1:28
Going to grind it to the bitter end because it's been a pretty
1:30
good year for us overall. But also, I have a play on the
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only college football game in the world tonight, Boston
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College, Florida State. So to me, this is kind of lining
1:39
up right in our playbook with a sharp contrarian reverse line
1:42
move. So I'll give you my breakdown in
1:43
my play for BCFSU and then hopefully we can get two out of
1:46
three with our Major League Baseball sweats.
1:49
But before we dive in, a little recap.
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How was your weekend, everyone? Hope you had a good weekend.
1:54
It's been a kind of a good, bad and then good start to college
1:57
football for me because if you remember back on Friday when we
2:00
swept the board, went four and O had a great hit with Stanford.
2:03
And Stanford, despite their head coach making some boneheaded
2:06
decisions, he went forward like 4th down multiple times on his
2:11
own side of the field and turned the ball over and just was
2:14
pathetic in terms of decision making.
2:17
But Stanford was able to cover the number and the idiot coach
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actually redeemed himself by kicking a field goal late to
2:23
cover that number. So great hit on Friday with
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Stanford, a great hit yesterday. If you're able to take LSU, USC,
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take the Trojans there because that was a ballpark or kind of a
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blueprint play for us, a heavily bet game.
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Majority of the bets there were on LSU, but the line kept
2:39
falling to USC plus 6 1/2 all the way down to +4.
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Some shops even got down to 3 1/2.
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So those are kind of our kind of wheelhouse plays there when you
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have heavy betting on one side, yet the line goes the other way.
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Those are dead giveaway reverse line moves.
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So Good Friday with Stanford, good day yesterday if you took
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USC, Saturday for me wasn't great because had a couple of
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sharp bets that didn't come through, including West
3:01
Virginia. Take Me Home, Country Roads.
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You might have been on West Virginia, another contrarian
3:05
play with a great line move, but really couldn't do anything.
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The game got delayed because of weather.
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Throw that one away. The one that really annoyed me,
3:11
though, was Texas A&M, because Texas A&M had a great line move.
3:15
Texas A&M had a great bet split, and Texas A&M, again, could
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have, would have, should have, you know, lamenting it as a
3:21
loser when you lose a bet. Yeah, You know, this didn't go
3:24
for us. That didn't go for us.
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But that quarterback, man Weigman, whatever his name was,
3:29
turning the ball over, making no plays.
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That was a brutal display of quarterbacking.
3:33
So unfortunately couldn't get Texas A&M.
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Then like an idiot, I took UMass thinking they'll be able to.
3:39
Who is it? Northern Illinois, Not Northern
3:40
Illinois, Eastern Michigan. But UMass had a good sharp move,
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reverse line. I think it was a dog to fave
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reverse line move in a contrarian spot.
3:48
Couldn't come through. So again, I think anytime you
3:51
start a new new sport, there's a feeling out period.
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You celebrate your wins, the losses, you take a step back,
3:57
perform an autopsy. What do we get wrong?
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What do we get right, like West Virginia A&M, you know, UMass,
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those are losses, but I feel like we're on the sharp side.
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They just didn't come through for us.
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So sometimes that'll happen. But luckily we did get Stanford
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on Friday in USC yesterday. So don't worry.
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College football is just starting.
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We got a ton of games for the next what, four or five months?
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So again, you'll get your fill. But he but just the bigger,
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bigger note here is welcome back to college football in the NFL
4:23
is right around the corner. So without further ado, let's
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waste no more time. I want to give you my bet for
4:28
BC, Florida State. So this is a 7:30 PM Eastern
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Time game. It's the only game in town.
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It's going to be extremely, heavily bad.
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It's on ESPN and I noticed a very sharp line move in favor of
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Boston College. Now going to this one, Florida
4:41
State open this game as as high as a 21 1/2 point home favorite.
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And if you remember, Florida State is coming off a bad loss
4:49
to Georgia Tech. They lost 24 to 21 in Ireland.
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So I think the angle there is, hey, maybe you know in what's
4:56
ironic is that even though Florida State lost the Georgia
4:58
Tech outright as a big favorite, the public is still not quitting
5:02
them. The public is still on Florida
5:04
State Despite that bad, that bad loss.
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If you look at the current bets, what's here from DraftKings
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right now, you are looking at where we have 65% of spread bets
5:14
here. I'm just pulling up my bet
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splits page for college football, but 65% of bets are on
5:20
Florida State. So the public is saying, hey,
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FSU, you're still, you know, ranked 10th.
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You should be a good team, you're a good program, you're
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off a bad loss, you're at home. This is a get right spot.
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This is get back on track, blow out little old BC who's on
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ranked and make in playing their debut game this season.
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That's what the public saying. So 65% of bets, 2 out of three
5:40
bets are on Florida State. However, what's the line doing?
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The lines going away from Florida State, even though
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they're getting 2/3 of bets open as high as again -21 1/2,
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they're all the way down to 16 1/2 -, 16 F.
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And what's notable to me is that there's been consistent one way
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movement away from FSU toward BC with no buyback, no let up, You
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know, it didn't reach a minus 21 1/2 down to minus, you know -18
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and pro said, hey, let's hit FSU.
6:07
That's a good low watermark. No, it's been consistent BC.
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And this is what I love about kind of steam moves or reverse
6:12
line moves or just line moves in general, but especially when
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they're toward the contrarian side is when the line keeps
6:18
going and never gets bought back.
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Like I'll give you a perfect example yesterday with with USC,
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the line kept going in their favor.
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They're only getting again, about 1/3 of bets, but it kept
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falling. Plus 6 1/2, six, five and a half
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five, you know, 4 1/2 down to four.
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Some books even got down to three.
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Not there was never a point where USC got down to, you know,
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thing with the other way. LSU got down to -5 and then got
6:40
back up to 5 1/2 or 6. No, continued one way in favor
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of USC. And that's what I'm seeing here
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tonight with Boston College, The fact the line keeps moving their
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direction despite the fact that they're the unpopular bet.
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So here are some reasons like BC aside from the line move, which
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again is huge, 21 1/2 down to 16 1/2.
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Of course, you got to get the hook here because I do some 6,
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see some sixteens out there. And even though we got a good
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plus 8 1/2 I believe on Friday night with Stanford, they end up
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closing 7 1/2, lose by 7, I believe.
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Yeah, I think they lost by 7. So the hook came through there.
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So always getting the mindset of programming your brain to get
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hooks and get the best number. So plus 16 1/2 should be
7:19
available for BC. So I'm going to take the 16 1/2.
7:22
They're only getting 35% of bats.
7:23
Boston College. So even if you just get rid of
7:26
the line movement, this is a 7:30 PM.
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Eastern Time game on ESPN. It's the only game in town.
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We're going to get to the NFL here shortly.
7:34
And when my favorite angles for the NFL is primetime dogs
7:37
because you get an influx of public betting.
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They're the most heavily bet games of the week because
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they're the only game in town and there's nowhere else to go.
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And public favoritism is going to lean toward the favorite.
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So if you can give me a contrarian dog in a primetime
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game, I love it in NFL, I love it in college football.
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Again, same angle that USC was in yesterday.
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But aside from just contrarian and heavily bet game, only
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getting 35% of bets, you also have some other angles here to
8:01
like with Boston College. One would be a double digit dog
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in a low total game. So I think, you know, obviously
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going through a long baseball season, we always talk
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correlative betting, favorite, low total, dog high total,
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because you got to think through kind of how a game might play
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out. Like if you're a good team in a
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low total game, you know, in baseball that's a good thing on
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the money line for your amount of expected run scored most
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likely to come from the better team.
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But in football, it's a little different.
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You always want a dog low total because when you're on a spread
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sport, think of it this way. The spread for BC is plus 16
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1/2. However, the total in this one
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is about 5151 1/2. I see a 50 1/2 out there.
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Let's just call it around 50. Think of it this way, if they're
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expecting a low amount of points in this game, and remember, you
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know, 5150 for a college football game, that's pretty
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low. NFL, that's high, but college
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football, that's low. I mean, you know, you can
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routinely see totals in college football, like yesterday LSUUSC
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went under, but that was a total of 67.
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You know, when you get to some of the Oregon games, I don't
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know, total can be like 70. So a low total with a double
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digit dog, that's a good correlative betting angle for BC
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because with a fewer amount of expected point scored, it's
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going to be harder for that favorite Florida State to cover
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that number. Now if this total was 60 or 70,
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that would be more beneficial to Florida State because more
9:19
expected point scored, theoretically easier for Florida
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State to cover. So we have a correlative betting
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double digit dog, low total, also have a conference dog.
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That's important too. When we talk, you know,
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baseball, we're looking at divisional dogs.
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NFL, same thing. Divisional dogs because of the
9:34
built in familiar familiarity, leveling the playing field,
9:37
benefiting the team, getting points or getting plus money.
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In this situation, two teams from the ACC, I know there's
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been a lot of realignment, but these are still ACC teams.
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So that familiarity really can level the playing field, benefit
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the dog in that spot, getting points.
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Another angle here would be unranked first ranked.
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Now, we're going to dive into a lot of ranking situations in
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college football. This is one of the biggest
10:01
indications of public bias. When the public sees a matchup,
10:05
like, for example, tonight, Florida State is ranked 10th, BC
10:07
is unranked. Don't even look at the number,
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Don't even look at the spread. You know almost every time that
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the public's going to go with that higher ranked team because
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theoretically, if you're ranked higher or ranked first unranked,
10:18
you're the better team. You should win, you should
10:20
cover. But that really can provide a
10:22
lot of bias in favor of the high ranked team.
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So as a contrarian, better you want to go the other way You
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love you learn to love unranked teams versus ranked teams.
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Or you know, maybe 1/3 ranked team is playing the 16th ranked
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team you would want to buy on the 16th ranked team over the
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three. So BC does have that unranked
10:40
first ranked system match. Also, BC did fight pretty hard
10:44
against Florida State last year. They lost 31 to 29 and almost
10:48
beat them, but did cover the number and BC.
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I'm going to lean on a couple things.
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One is their quarterback, Thomas Castellanos.
10:56
He's a dual threat QB. If you haven't seen this kid
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plays pretty good. I think he's a junior now at
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this point. But in the Stanford game from
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Friday, if you remember that kid Daniels, he was dual threat,
11:05
could run, could throw. So again, looking at a dog who
11:08
can score and cover the number, always like a QB.
11:10
You can, you know, get first down with his legs or throw it
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and pick up a first down. So I'm going to bank on this
11:15
quarterback here tonight playing well.
11:17
And Bill O'Brien, he did not perform very well as the
11:20
offensive coordinator for the Patriots last year, but now he
11:23
is the head coach of BC. So he is an experienced guy,
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obviously was in the NFL for quite a long time, OC at
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Alabama. So hopefully you get a boost
11:31
here with some some good coaching.
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And then now let's get into the nitty gritty.
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And two, one thing or two things we're going to look at all year
11:40
#1 rhythm. Rhythm does a great job of
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powering this podcast. I'm a huge fan of Rhythm.
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I love the analytical approach with Rhythm and the AI models
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where we can act like professional betters where
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Rhythm, the AI model or the models we create are going to
11:54
spit out what the number, what the spread should be.
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And then we are like pros by comparing what our predicted,
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you know, spread or total should be versus what the market's
12:02
providing. And this can provide us with a
12:04
great edge. So I popped open my Rhythm app
12:06
and I would highly recommend downloading Rhythm, of course,
12:08
using the custom links located in the bio description of this
12:11
podcast. But just look at any game it
12:14
really, you don't want to go into a game blind look and see
12:17
what Rhythm is is saying here. But you don't even have to make
12:19
your own model. I mean, that's fun to me, but
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you can just follow the Rhythm AI model and the Rhythm AI model
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using their advanced algorithms and AI machine learning, they
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are predicting a Florida State spread of -15.1.
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So basically Rhythm and their advanced algorithms are saying
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this spread should be around 15. We're getting 16 1/2 with BC.
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So using Rhythm, that's a good sign.
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Basically it like for example, if Rhythm said the spread should
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be, you know, 19.1, that would not be a good sign for BC.
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That would actually provide value for Florida State.
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But this is what I love doing. I love combining kind of my
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philosophy of data-driven betting and reading the market
13:00
with rhythm and with a great another great sports betting app
13:03
like juice field that we talked quite a bit about with their
13:05
sharp mush indicators. So the fact that BC is only
13:09
getting 35% of bets, the lines moving in their favor, they're a
13:12
dog double digit dog low total correlative betting play
13:16
conference dog on ranked first ranked.
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And then the last angle here is we also have an edge with rhythm
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again predicting a 15 point spread.
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We're now getting 16 1/2. So you might look at and say,
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hey, how can I bet? BC you know, plus 16 1/2 when
13:30
they open getting 21 1/2. Well, on the one hand, you're,
13:33
you're too late at this point. You know that 21's not coming
13:35
back. So you, if you want to tell me
13:37
that the value could be gone and you don't want to play it.
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I get that that's a valid concern.
13:42
But the fact this line keeps getting hit and I've still seen
13:44
some smart money come in on plus 16 1/2, that gives me a little
13:48
confidence here to play Boston College.
13:51
Lastly, with Rhythm, not only are they predicting a 15.1
13:54
spread in favor of Florida, Florida State, but also the
13:58
community model. The community model is a new
14:00
feature. You hear me talk about it
14:01
probably quite a bit when it comes to to to Rhythm, but it
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pulls everyone who has a Rhythm account and has a system match
14:08
on this game. Where do they lean here?
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So in the Rhythm community model, 76.5% of all the models
14:17
are on Boston College tonight in the points.
14:19
So again, 76.5% as a contrarian, that's a red flag, but not in
14:23
this case. Because the people who have
14:25
Rhythm accounts, they're smart, analytical base people.
14:27
They're not drunk guys up. You think drunk guys at the bar
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using Rhythm. I don't, I don't, I don't think
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so. So good community model, Florida
14:35
State -15.1 when we can get 16 1/2.
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But the big angle here is that that reverse line move public
14:41
Florida State line going to BC. So if you want to sweat with me
14:45
tonight, I'm going Boston College Eagles, you can lose the
14:49
game, but lose by 16 or less. I'm going BC.
14:52
Sharp contrarian reverse line move tonight plus 16 1/2.
14:56
Now over to Major League Baseball because again, even
14:59
though it's football season, we're not quitting baseball. 3
15:03
bets for you. Let's try to get 2 out of 3.
15:06
So first on the board for me, let's go to Tampa Bay.
15:09
The Rays at home tonight, 6:50 PM Eastern Time hosting the
15:13
Minnesota Twins. Now going to this one, the
15:16
Minnesota Twins are 74 and 62. Just took two of three against
15:20
the Jays. They won four to three yesterday
15:23
as a - 275 home favorite. Meanwhile, the Rays who are 67
15:27
and 69, they just dropped to a three against the Padres.
15:30
They lost four to three yesterday as a plus one O 5 home
15:32
dog. So pitch a matchup tonight.
15:35
We have the Rays going with the ready Zach Litell.
15:37
He's five and eight, 3.89 ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins are going
15:41
to go with the fellow ready, Simeon Woods Richardson.
15:44
He's five and three with a 3.85 ERA.
15:46
So what have you seen across the board here?
15:48
Well, the Twins open as a very short favorite around -115 on
15:53
the road. And the public is saying, hey,
15:55
Twins all day. They have the far better record.
15:57
They're the better team. They're only laying a -, 115
16:00
seems too good to be true, right?
16:02
Take Minnesota. However, if you look at the
16:04
betting market, nearly 70% of bets are on Minnesota.
16:07
Yet this line is falling away from the Twins toward Tampa Bay.
16:11
We're basically at a pick em at this point.
16:13
You're around -110 both sides. You might be able to find Tampa
16:16
Bay maybe -1 O 6 - 1 O 8. So of course, again, shop
16:20
around, find the best number. But it's notable to me that the
16:22
public is all over Twins, but the twins line is dropping.
16:25
You know, you would think 70% going twins open -115 they
16:30
should be up to -120 -, 125. No, it's going the other way
16:33
toward toward Tampa Bay here. So I'm going to take a shot on
16:36
Tampa Bay. Guys, again, shop around.
16:38
I got the raise at minus one O 8.
16:41
I do like this reverse line move.
16:42
Also, the fact Simeon Wood Richardson, let's dive into
16:46
these pictures a little bit. He has a four point O 6 ERA on
16:49
the road, 3.64 at home. So he's been worse on the road.
16:53
He's on the road tonight and Zach Litelle, hopefully he can
16:56
pitch well for us tonight. He pitched very well in three
16:58
August starts. He had an ERA of 1.72.
17:01
He only gave up three runs in 15.2 innings pitched.
17:04
By the way, he has a 2.84 ERA at home, 5.37 on the road.
17:09
So he's been better at home than on the road he's on.
17:11
He's at home tonight and Tampa two and one against Minnesota
17:15
this year. Nothing amazing, but better than
17:18
being Owen three, I guess be at all up here, guys.
17:20
This one just jumped out to me as everyone bet in Minnesota.
17:23
The sign keeps falling a little bit toward Tampa Bay.
17:25
So I'm going to go with the smart money.
17:27
Give me Tampa Bay at minus one O 8.
17:29
Next bet for you, my Boston Red Sox against the New York Mets,
17:34
7:10 PM Eastern Time at Citi Field.
17:36
And again, I'm a Red Sox fan. I don't bet them just because
17:40
they're my favorite team. But when they're sharp and
17:42
they're my favorite team, I'm going to play in the route for
17:44
my favorite team. So I'm going Red Sox here,
17:46
little plus money plus one O 5. But here's the breakdown.
17:49
Red Sox 6070 and 67 did just lose two or three against the
17:53
Tigers. Lost 4 to one yesterday as a -,
17:55
1 O 5 road dog. Meanwhile, the Mets, 73 and 64
17:59
just swept the White Sox. They won two to two nothing
18:02
yesterday as a -, 175 road favorite.
18:05
And tonight's interleague series opener.
18:07
Sox are going to go with the ready Brian Baio.
18:09
They're young stud, 12 and six, 4.66 ERA.
18:13
Meanwhile, the Mets are going to go with the fellow ready, Luis
18:16
Severino. He's nine and six with a 3.96
18:19
ERA. So what have you seen across the
18:20
market here? Well, the Mets opened around a
18:23
-, 125 home favorite and the public's going Mets again,
18:27
better record at home. Red Sox just lost two or three
18:31
against the Tigers late with the Mets at home, right?
18:34
However, despite almost 2/3 of bets on the Mets, the Lions
18:38
falling away from New York, NY went from -125 now down to -120.
18:43
I see a couple books closer to like -115.
18:45
So if 2/3 of bets are on the Mets, you know, shouldn't they
18:48
be up to -130? No, it's going the other way.
18:51
It's falling toward Boston tells me this is a good opportunity to
18:54
take the plus money with the Red Sox.
18:56
Red Sox only getting a third of bets, but nearly half the
18:59
tickets. So good.
19:00
Low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
19:02
Red Sox also have some good angles as a dog.
19:05
Boston is 33 and 32 as a dog. 51% might not seem amazing, but
19:10
when you're a plus money dog, that's a good ROI if you're if
19:13
you can even hover around 500. So that's a 13% ROI. 7th best
19:18
dog team in baseball. Even better, when the Red Sox
19:21
are playing as a as a dog against a team who missed the
19:24
playoffs the previous year. They're 19 and 1556% with a 22%
19:30
ROI. That's the situation they're in
19:31
here tonight. Now, I'm going to bank on the
19:33
Red Sox offense hopefully showing up and getting to
19:35
Severino. Remember the pit?
19:36
They played against him a lot when he was with the Yankees.
19:39
So familiarity there with the Boston lineup.
19:42
But the Red Sox on the year hitting 256, they scored 658
19:46
runs. Mets hitting 249, they've scored
19:48
651 runs. So slightly better bats with the
19:51
Red Sox. Brian Baio, he has a 3 ERA or
19:55
posted a 3 ERA. In five August starts.
19:58
He only allowed ten runs in 30 innings.
20:00
And the Red Sox are nine and two in Bao's last 11 starts.
20:04
Meanwhile, Luis Severino, he had a four point O 8 ERA and five
20:08
August starts give up 13 runs and 28.2 innings pitched.
20:11
And by the way, the Mets are only two and four in his last
20:14
six starts. Also, two righties here on the
20:16
bump. Red Sox much better hitting
20:19
against righties. They're hitting 262, third best
20:21
in baseball. Mets are hitting 246, ranking
20:24
5th, 15th. Also, I just saw a tweet I
20:28
believe JD Martinez paternity leave.
20:30
So Congrats having a kid, but he will not be in the lineup
20:33
tonight looks like. So one of the better hitters for
20:35
the Mets won't be playing. But you add it all up guys
20:37
again, public Mets Lions going to the Red Sox.
20:40
I got Boston at +105 last bat of the night in Major League
20:44
Baseball. Let's go to Wrigley Field.
20:47
I took one trip to Wrigley Field back in 2020.
20:50
Eleven with my buddies or 2012. It was the Bobby Valentine year.
20:54
We had a great time, even though the Sox were terrible.
20:56
Highly recommend getting to Wrigley at some point in your
20:59
life. It's just a just a bucket list
21:01
trip. But anyway, Pittsburgh Pirates
21:03
at the Chicago Cubs under the lights, 7:40 PM Eastern Time.
21:07
Going into this one, the Pirates are 63 and 73.
21:10
They just lost two of three against the Guardians.
21:13
Lost six to one yesterday as a + 130 row dog.
21:16
Meanwhile, the Cubbies, they're playing very well as as of late,
21:19
I think they went nine and O or nine and one on the road trip
21:21
and they just set a record for like 100 runs and ten games.
21:25
I believe the most or second most like since 1900.
21:28
So hints I'm going to go Cubs and I hope their bats come to
21:31
play tonight. But they just swept the
21:33
Nationals 114 to one yesterday as a -, 125 road favorite for
21:37
tonight's series opener. The Buckos are going to go with
21:40
the ready Jared Jones. He's five and seven, 3.88 ERA.
21:45
The Cubs, meanwhile, are going to go with the ready Jamison tie
21:48
on nine and eight, 3.85 ERA. What have we seen across the
21:51
market here? Well, good steam on those
21:54
cubbies. Cubbies open around -135 Cubs
21:57
are now bet up to around -145 some shops even closer to -150
22:02
So we have about $0.10 steam move in favor of the Cubs.
22:06
Now the Cubs are getting around 80% of bets in dollars.
22:09
So kind of both a pro and Joe bet split.
22:11
Maybe the public's just wanting to ride the Cubs because they're
22:14
hot. Wise guys probably saw value in
22:16
the number early. Maybe they had it closer to -150
22:19
to begin with, which is why they hit the Cubbies and move that
22:22
number. But Cubs also have a couple good
22:24
angles in their favor. One would be a correlative
22:26
betting favorite, low total, so your, you know, favorite upwards
22:29
of -150 total here is 7 1/2. So if your amount of expected
22:33
runs scored more likely to come from that better team, Who's
22:36
favored to win? Cubs have the better offense.
22:38
They're hitting 240 on the year, 145 homers, 626 runs scored.
22:43
Pittsburgh hitting 236 with 134 homers, 572 runs scored.
22:49
Jared Jones just faced the Cubs his last start out.
22:53
Gave up five runs in four innings and that was a nine to
22:55
five loss to Chicago. So hopefully the Cubs bats
22:58
remember and you know, have that experience against Jones.
23:00
Can get Tim tonight. Tie on, by the way, good at
23:03
home, 2.92 ERA versus 4.72 on the road.
23:07
Luckily for us, he's at Wrigley tonight.
23:10
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, 31 and 37 on the road.
23:12
Cubs 36 and 29 at home, and this is kind of what I was getting at
23:17
earlier, but the Cubs are 9 and one in their last 10 games.
23:19
They're hitting 324 as a team, 4.65 ERA.
23:23
Pirates are four and six over the last 10, only hitting 260
23:26
with a 6.85 ERA. So again, I don't think you just
23:30
want to ride a hot team because they're hot.
23:32
I think you want to at least, you know, make sure that they
23:34
have some good betting system matches, a good line move, maybe
23:37
a good bet split. But I'm going to go Cubs here
23:39
tonight, guys hope that they stay hot.
23:41
I got Chicago at -145 so Tampa Bay, Boston has a dog and the
23:47
cubbies. Can we get 2 out of three?
23:49
And side note, go Boston College plus 16 1/2.
23:53
But that about does it for episode 109 of the All Systems
23:56
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:00
This is the part of the pod where you wrap things up.
24:02
And I asked, First off, a favor of you.
24:04
Could you please do me a big favor and give this podcast a
24:07
five star review? If there's an option to review
24:10
the pod, boom, give it five stars.
24:12
It really make my day. But more importantly, it's not
24:14
just, you know, to pad my ego here, but to help us rise up the
24:18
charts to gain more credibility, gain more eyeballs, rise up the
24:21
rankings here, grow the pod. That's the the major goal here
24:24
because with sports betting getting legalized pretty much,
24:28
you know, up to 40 states now almost, you know, there's a lot
24:31
of people who want to bet for the first time.
24:32
Well, you got to have at least the line of attack or a plan and
24:35
the data-driven approach. The goal of the pod is to teach,
24:38
you know as many betters as possible to bet based on not
24:42
their gut instinct and bias, but based on reading the market.
24:45
So if you like the pod, please give it five stars.
24:47
If there's an option to follow the pod, click that follow
24:49
button. That way you'll get alerted as
24:50
soon as it drops. And then of course, if you want
24:53
to recommend it to a friend. Never hurts with some good word
24:55
of mouth recommendations. Secondly, if you enjoyed this
24:59
pod and you want to learn more about data-driven contrarian
25:02
betting, maybe you are now intrigued by how reading the
25:05
market. Maybe you couldn't name a single
25:06
player on Stanford or USC over the weekend, yet you notice the
25:10
sharp line move. You're able to read the market,
25:12
You cash the ticket there. If that's the case and you want
25:15
to learn more about how to interpret bet splits, read line
25:18
movement, identify sharp action, go contrarian betting system
25:22
matches, flat betting, not parlaying.
25:24
If any of this style of betting appeals to you, I would imagine
25:27
if you're hearing my voice right now, you probably are a believer
25:30
in data-driven betting. But if you're new or you want to
25:33
just make my day or you want to help someone else, maybe get a
25:36
leg up and learn data-driven contrarian betting.
25:38
Could you please go buy my book, support the team?
25:41
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything Guide to Sports
25:45
betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a
25:47
friend. It's got everything I've learned
25:48
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
25:51
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
25:54
place a bet in person or online, how to go contrarian chapters on
25:57
all the major sports. It's all included in the
25:59
everything guide to sports betting.
26:02
Pick up a copy of the book and when I see you at the book the
26:05
sports book that is I'm going to sign it for you buy a beer or
26:08
ginger ale. But with with that, with that
26:11
being said, lastly, now is the time.
26:15
I say it during every pod. But seriously, you got to
26:18
download rhythm and juice real right now because as you
26:21
mentioned, rhythm already has their AI models for all the
26:24
college football games live as well as the prop bets for the
26:28
NFL Week 1 just popped up. So we're going to use Rhythm a
26:31
ton this football season. I will have an announcement
26:34
you're coming soon pertaining to rhythm in the football season.
26:37
So stay tuned for that. But I love rhythm.
26:40
It's betting. It's betting based on data
26:42
analytics, which is right up my wheelhouse and I it helps me to
26:45
win. I know it's going to help you to
26:46
win. Also Juice Reel fantastic being
26:49
able to sync up your sports books as well as you know, get a
26:52
running report card of your record and your performance.
26:54
Learning about yourself is a better knowing your strengths
26:57
and weaknesses. But also if you just want to
26:59
blindly follow or tail the robo Jackson best bet picks each day
27:03
that's available to you. We got some great arbitrage bets
27:06
that pop up every day. My personal favorite for Juice
27:09
Reel are the sharp mush bets where you're compiling all the
27:12
different people who have synced up their sports book to Juice
27:15
Reel and looking at, hey, if you're a losing better, you know
27:18
when you're on Team A and all the winning betters in the opera
27:21
on Team B, it gives you a percentage difference between
27:24
where the good betters are at and where the bad betters are
27:26
at. The sharps versus the squares,
27:28
whatever you want to call it. But I love that feature.
27:30
It's kind of just another way for me to kind of have some
27:32
confidence that I'm on the sharp side and betting against the
27:35
public. But with both rhythm and Juice
27:37
Reel, you got to sign up in a particular way.
27:39
Guys, please go to the custom links that are located in the
27:43
bio description of the podcast if you're listening on Spotify
27:46
or iTunes where it has a breakdown of today's pod where
27:49
I, you know, I put in, hey, you know, Josh dishes out a 5 pack
27:52
of sweats for Monday, yadda, yadda, yadda.
27:54
In this case, it's a four pack. Scroll down.
27:56
There'll be some links to sign up for Rhythm and Juice Real.
27:58
Go do it right now so you can lean on Juice Real and rhythm
28:01
for the entire football season. But that about does it
28:04
everybody. Another part here in the books.
28:06
We've turned the page on August, September's here.
28:08
Football season is here. This is honestly my favorite
28:11
time of the year. I love summer, you know, spring
28:14
is great and it's different ways, you know, I guess snowy
28:17
days and winter can be nice sometimes too.
28:19
But when it's starting to get a little bit cooler before it gets
28:22
really cold, if you're like me in New England, you know,
28:24
summer's winding down. Football's in the air.
28:27
I just love this time of year. So let's have a good year, guys,
28:30
with football season upon us. With that being said, whether I
28:34
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
28:37
Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
28:39
Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Rich
28:42
Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
28:45
Massachusetts are out in the desert where the true grinders
28:48
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
28:50
number runners with lowest who as possible is found at the
28:52
South Point, or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
28:55
stadium swimming pool when they cash a big ticket at Circo,
28:58
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me,
29:00
you're going to show me a a beautiful Stanford plus the
29:03
points ticket on Friday or show me a beautiful USC +44 and a
29:08
half, 3 1/2 whatever you got winning outright yesterday.
29:11
And guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
29:13
you. We'll post about the book
29:15
Sweatshop contrarian plays all night long.
29:17
So wish you the best luck everyone have a fantastic Monday
29:21
and as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
29:24
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
29:26
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
29:29
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
29:31
Remember, sports betting is hard.
29:33
Anything can happen in a one off luck, randomness, human nature,
29:37
bad beats, backdoor covers, A1 off.
29:39
Anything can happen. But we are in it for the long
29:42
haul. And if we can consistently belt
29:44
with our heads and not our heart by monitoring the market, by
29:46
reading line movement, by going contrarian, by falling sharp
29:49
action, by placing ourselves against the public with the
29:52
house, with the pros, flat betting and avoiding parlays,
29:56
getting that closing line value, if we can do that, we're going
29:59
to be successful sports bettors. So have a great Monday everyone
30:02
and I will see you again tomorrow for episode 110 of the
30:06
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
30:10
Have a great night everybody. Good luck.