Latest / Rick Outzen: (we don’t) color on the dog / Election Night Coverage
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- Rick Outzen: Hi, welcome to our election coverage for We Don't Color on the Dog. I've got Cena Madison. Cena, thank you for joining us. Sena: Thank you. Rick Outzen: We got Walker Wilson. The old gang is back together. The polls have Walker Wilson: Good to be here. That's right. Sena: Yeah, we put the band back together. Rick Outzen: just closed in a scambi of Santa Rosa County, Northwest Florida. You're looking at right now. Moody, Nixon started strong in statewide elections with 80 percent 86% of the votes in right now. Moody has about a 31,000 vote lead. There definitely looks like we're gonna have a whole lot of recounts. the New York Times says it Moody is likely to win that. Jolly has jumped back ahead of Donald's. This is going back and forth. 40,000 votes in between the two of them. 75,000, 75% of the votes have been cast. you're looking at, let's see, at the Homestead exemption tax is got 62% of the vote with 67% counted. So that's that's gonna create a lot of havoc. Simpson is ahead of Akins in the Agricultural Commission race. CFO Angolia's got a slight lead over Tidati. and let me see if I can get attorney general race. The he's not jumping up right in front of me. but it it was it's kind of flipped. right around six thirty or so, all the Democrats as the southern counties were being counted, the the Democrats had to lead about fifty one forty nine, now it's flipped the other direction. what will Northwest Florida do? What what do you think, Walker? Walker Wilson: we've seen Democrats and MPAs. They certainly showed up in mail-in ballots around the state, including in Northwest Florida and also in early voting. And but Republicans showed up today numerically. I think they're down a little bit from where they were four years ago. but I think, you know, at the end of the day, i it might be just what some of these Republican candidates are looking for is for Northwest Florida to come in and try and save the day. But or are the numbers gonna be there if they're not showing up like they typically have in the past? And I think that's just what we're waiting to see. Rick Outzen: Yeah, just a the quick analysis. We don't have the last turnout numbers, but right now, let's say about six fifty in Escambie County, we had thirty-one thousand more, thirty one hundred more Democrats vote than in twenty twenty two. We're down about forty five hundred votes on the j on the Republican side, fewer people have voted, which sort of reflects a lack of enthusiasm. For the Republican candidates, I think. It and you're also seeing in voter turnout, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties have some of the lowest percentages of voter turnout. I out of sixty seven counties, Escambia's only fifty-five. what were you seeing? Cena, you voted today. What did you see at the polls? Sena: It was pretty studied. I of course I I voted the Fricker Center, so I was dis I w displaced voter this time. I voted at the downtown library because that is closed. But it was moving swiftly and everybody was happy. I tell you though, I really appreciate our you know, Robert Bender and everything that they do here because all the early early voting my friends in Alabama were waiting hours. I mean, there were lines everywhere and it's so nice to just be able to go and and go in and walk in and vote. So that early voting Rick Outzen: All right, we've got Sena: really matters. Rick Outzen: we've got the first results in from Walker Wilson: Yeah. Rick Outzen: Bender. Kohler is 53% of the vote to Matthias Robinson 46. Hofberger, Vincent is ahead of Hofberger, 54% of the vote to Hofberger having 46. This is this is all the early voting being counted and the vote by Sena: Mm-hmm. Rick Outzen: mail primarily. this was something, Walker, that you talked about it. If Joe What came out of early voting with the lead, that is an ominous sign for Hofburg. Walker Wilson: Yeah, I I think that you know, sitting there with a twelve hundred vote lead going in and you're looking at the returns from Pensacola Christian is down i huge over four years ago, the last midterm. and you look at Pensacola Beach is down almost ten percent. And you know, I think that's really where a lot of her support came from last time was certainly out at the beach in kind of that off cycle election. two years ago. And you've got some of your more, you know, maybe non party or Democrat precincts really showed up and with the turnout this this go-around. And we're seeing some of those more Republican steadfast precincts in District Four, their numbers are are down, you know, anywhere from five to ten percent where they were four years ago when Robert Bender ran against Myra Van Hoos. And so, you know, it's gonna You wanna see what happened on election day? and can he hold that number throughout the night with with the electorate today being somewhere closer to fifty percent of the folks that voted in district four today were Republicans, and is that gonna be enough to get, you know, Commissioner Hofberger back to re election? Rick Outzen: Well, Cena, you've worked with a lot of different elections. You've watched typically this first vote when it comes in, it holds. It it it's a signal of what everyone else is gonna vote. But we don't know for sure if that's the case. We always kind of wait to see if it's gonna be different. But you saw this when you were working with the Morgan campaign against McNesby. He took an early lead and kept it. Sena: Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was it was in a lot of times it's been that way in a lot of the races that I've been involved in, we if we won we we held it right from the beginning. it's so so this is gonna be a little bit different. I think this is gonna be a lot closer and Rick Outzen: Here at the city council races, Sherry Myers has a lead over Charles Baer. she has 55% of the vote, he has 45% of the vote. Again, Mayor DC Reeves weighed into this and put put his you know stamp of approval on Sherry Myers. she's coming out with a lead. The other race that's really close is District 4. Who's going to replace Jared Moore? Brian Cole has 963 votes. Boyce White has 1,022. Brian Cole was someone who Hofberger endorsed. So it may not have done as well for him as he thought it would. So, we're looking at, I'm trying to see, golly. For all the talk the news journal did about amendment three and how it's going to hurt local government, 64, 65% of the local vote. early on is for amendment three, which will have a significant impact on local government. the on on the other side of the coin, residents 76, 77% in favor of the one cent local option sales tax renewal, which is big. That that's good. Kudos to Bruce Friedenberg and that group, Karen Schoberg, they ideal works. help run that campaign. A huge win for them, it looks like. Let's look at the other races that that are out there. Util ECUA District Two. Okay. Walker Wilson: Rick, I just was gonna throw this out there. I just look back, Jolly's back ahead of Donald's in the governor's race with some of these numbers coming in. So it just it's gonna be all over the map tonight, it looks like. Rick Outzen: Yeah, let me see how Jolly did here. Donald's and Jolly are pretty close. Only about Jolly has I mean Donald's has fifty point five three percent of the vote, Jolly forty-eight point nine. That's a huge turnaround from what DeSantis did against Christ four years ago. the so that's kind of interesting to see. Salzman's race is tighter than people would have thought. She's got She still got about a 5,000 vote lead, but it's 46% against a candidate that had zero money, gets 44%. John Johnny Austin Thompson is leading John Faye right now in Escambia County. That's also has a Santa Rosa County part vote to that. Fay has got 14,980. Thompson has got 15,681. So you're looking at 51%. For Thompson and 49% for Fay. Kohler is holding his lead. it it's an interesting set of numbers. Benson's ahead of Horning, 56 to 44. Litton has a tight lead, a slight lead over Cavender, the Democrat, Jacob Kander. He has 49% of the vote. Kavender has 45%. it's It's it's these are interesting numbers to see for the first time coming and looking at this. the fact that we had so many Democrats voting. Valmont and Patronas in Escambia County. There is only about 700 vote lead for Patronus in Escambia County. And Valmont beat him in the special election back in 2025. but this is this is interesting Walker Wilson: Yeah. Rick Outzen: to see. Walker Wilson: And so just kind of looking at the numbers, looking at district four race again, her county commission, you know, with with Joe up what was that, twelve hundred votes or so. Rick Outzen: Yeah. Walker Wilson: you know, Commissioner Hofberger is gonna need to come in somewhere in the on election day and win about fifty five or fifty six percent share of the vote. So it it could get could get a little tighter as we go on. It it it could get really close. just depending on again how the rest of the the folks that are voting, if you were in line at seven o'clock, Robert's gonna try and get you in and let you vote and they still gotta count all that. So it could go on for a little while to see really where that shakes out at the end of the day. Rick Outzen: Well, and you're looking at Vincent is an NPA candidate has never won a county commission race as long as we've had NPA candidates. it's been tried before. this was I mean, a Republican running against someone that that is not a party affiliated and has never been a party affiliated, walking away with, you know, twelve hundred vote lead coming out of the early voting. And the vote by mail is is you know, wherever it goes from here. This is a huge upset just at this point. it and it's let's don't I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We've got to wait and see how the precincts come in. This is all the early voting that's done. I'm gonna go ahead and take a quick Walker. Why don't you look at the st at the national numbers of the statewide races again? I'm gonna go over to look at at what's happening in Santa Rosa County. Santa Rosa, you're looking at the races that that were over there that people Fay did much better over in Santa Rosa County. He's got a 3,000 vote lead. So when you add those two counties together, it looks like Faye is is gonna win this race. the let's see what happened. School board, the big race was Gill Brock's intestine against Marie Laughlin. Marie Laughlin is again, two. Pensacola powerhouse families, the Lachlands and the Broxins. Lachland is ahead with 53% of the vote. Broxen's got 47, about a 2,000 vote difference between the two of them. That's interesting to see. Heather Lindsey is winning the mayor's race for the city of Milton. in City Council, it is Eber, Randy Ebert, the incumbent, is over Jeffrey Bowen. Bowman. the and in Santa Rosa County, the the the constitutional amendment about getting rid of of you know homestead taxes on homesteads is 72% of the vote. I it looks like that's gonna pass. I just I don't see it changing. and both Santa Rosa County voters look like they're gonna put agree to the half cent surtax for infrastructure and for the renewal of the sales tax to help the school system. Both those have pretty high percentage of votes. the what are you seeing on the statewide stuff, Walker? Walker Wilson: Yeah. So Patronus right now is up in his race fifty seven and a half percent, Gabe Almont's at forty one percent. and then looking at And then John Fay, overall he's he's up right now fifty-two, almost fifty-three percent to Johnny Thompson at forty-seven percent. So it looks like you know, maybe the initial numbers in Escambia County maybe weren't re reflective of the entire entire deal of what was going on in the the whole district. And then looking at the the governor's race is still neck and neck. And we've got Donald's at forty nine percent with three point five seven million votes. Jolly and Graham at forty nine point seven seven with three point six three million votes. So I mean it just keeps flipping back and forth the entire time. Rick Outzen: All right, Seno text Jeff and see if we can get him to turn his camera on. He's trying to come in, but we're not Sena: Okay. Rick Outzen: quite getting him. if you'll reach out to him, I appreciate it. Sena: Sure thing. Rick Outzen: yeah, you we're looking at at this as being you know, we're trying to bring in a lot of guests. We will have them in. Lumen May and Ryan Wiggins are at the jolly hit campaign party. Of course they're having trouble with internet right now. What's interesting though, what's happening, Walker, and looking as Northwest Florida's coming in, Jolly's moving ahead. It's it's not by a lot. it's roughly 9,200 votes right now. Santa Rosa and Okaloosa are starting to come in. it is this is definitely gonna be heading to a a recount. let's see what's happening in the Senate race. Moody is pulling ahead. Roughly by about tw one hundred and twenty thousand votes. it's fifty point two to forty eight point seven percent on those in that race. the you're looking at at Attorney General Uthmeyer is is pulling ahead of Rodriguez. that's starting to shape up. it's but it's still kind of tight there. the one that's gonna be the upset, and the one that everyone's gonna have to live with, is this amendment to increase the homestead exemption. It is sixty-two percent of the vote. And I don't see that changing. so this is Statewide we're seeing somewhat of a blue wave, but it's it's a little bit muted. It's not exactly what we need to have happen. and we'll we'll see how it goes. Let's see what's going on any more have we got any more precincts in? Walker Wilson: It doesn't look like it. I'm not seeing anything changed locally at least. Those numbers are all still the the same. so you've got all early votes have been counted and they're still working on vote by mail obviously is gonna take a while and then election day stuff's gonna take a while, but all the early votes are all in at this point in time. Rick Outzen: Coop. The you know, as you look at this, yeah, the early votes are in. We're still waiting to see some of the precincts. We don't have that yet. That's the that will give us an idea if these numbers start to change. We'll see it pretty quickly. again, it's the the system that Robert Bender has is very, very accurate. it is you know, it has worked, their accuracy level is very rarely, if ever, challenged. They do a a really good job with that. the let me see if I can get where we can get where people can come in. Let's see. We're trying to get you can go to the blog rixblog.biz and be able to follow us on YouTube. if you're here hopefully you already are. But if friends are looking for it, you can check my Facebook page. I've got the link there as well as on the the blog too so we can try to get more people on with that. the scene what's going on with Jeff? We seem to not be able to grab him. Sena: it says he's backstage. Can you let him on? Rick Outzen: I I've tr let me see if I can. I'm t I've I I can't let's see. All right, maybe all right, maybe if I take you off and move you Sena: Yeah. Rick Outzen: to backstage and see if I can bring him up. Let's see. I don't see him here. Heads up, I'm trying to grab him in. Tell him to give it another shot, just a second. The here we go. All right, let's see if we can get him front stage. All right. Come on, Jeff. We'll get you there. All right. All right, here we go. No, we've got him everything. I know maybe we've maxed the system out. Let's see. I'm showing him in session, Cena, but I can't seem to be able to grab him. to what I'll send you the link again to use and maybe see. Nope but he's getting there. So I'm not quite sure what's going on. the as we look at the results, Moody is gradually pulling ahead slightly. she's now got 140 lead right now. Just cannot get Jeff to work. Let's see. Unmute participant. Okay, he's unmuted. And Turn on camera. Seeing all I can figure out is it doesn't look like he has his camera on. I can bring him up, but I can't seem to be able to get that to work for him. Turn on camera. There we go. All right. I had him for a second. There we go. Hey Jeff. We're doing well. What how about this surprise? Vincent leading coming out of the early voting with a significant lead over Ashley Hofberger. Jeff DeWeese: Yeah, that that's exciting stuff. talk about the establishment. Rick Outzen: Right. I mean she had all the developers. She had raised a ton of money. She's of course a multimillionaire herself. the and an incumbent. And we've never seen this happen before. Jeff DeWeese: Yeah, and we've got now we've got ten of nineteen precincts reporting and he's still up about a thousand votes. So yeah. Shows that you really gotta show up on Rick Outzen: Yeah. That's it. Yeah, it it's Well shoot now it's it's even tighter. Now it's only about 270 vote difference between the two of them with 10 of 19 precincts. it's so it like Walker said, you know, Republicans vote the day of and they are definitely you know the a lot of Republicans voted today, so we may see some of this tighten up and go a different direction. it's the You look, I think the other thing that's really surprising, Jeff, is just to see the Sherry Myers Charles Bear race. Ma they don't have any precincts counter for that yet. So it's still early voting. you look at district four. go ahead. Yeah. Yeah. Jeff DeWeese: Well, yeah, that's not rare. I remember when Marn ran when Marn ran against Mike DeSorbo, the first polls came back and it showed her with zero votes. And I said, You didn't even vote for yourself. Rick Outzen: Right. Well, Boys White's got a slight lead over Brian Cole. that's two of three precincts. It's about eighty votes difference. eighty, you know, well, yeah, about ninety-four votes difference between the two of you know, fifty-two to forty eight percent. both of are new, you know, Boys has run before, Brian Cole hadn't. but that's a really, really tight race. the I'm just the other thing surprised me how many people voted to get rid of the homestead exemption. with all the articles and news journals done Jeff DeWeese: Yeah. Rick Outzen: and and all the you know, people it still didn't matter. The voters don't want to pay the tax. Yeah. Jeff DeWeese: Yeah. But we it does look like we're gonna get our penny for progress renewal. And that's the one that really drives Rick Outzen: Yeah. that looks positive. Yeah, all the economic development is totally, totally dependent on it. The it it's this is you know, everyone was thinking this was gonna be a very, very t tight race, and it definitely is. Over in Santa Rosa County, the school board race that if you're a Santa Rosa native and you've grew up there, you knew the Lachlan family and the Broxen family. Marie Laughlin is still leading over Jill Brock Jill Brock's intestine. twenty four thousand votes to about twenty two thousand votes. Lachland led in the primary and was but testing got enough of the votes to be able to force a runoff. Mayor Lindsay is going back at the city of Milton. the you're looking at the Gulf Breeze. Randy Abear is going back as a council member. it is it's gonna be an i we'll see what's happening. Santa, what you got going on? I'll get you back in just a second here. Sena: No, I was just watching the s the state results and it is so very, very close. There there are only about a thir thirty thousand votes separated as far in the governor's race right now. It is too close to call. Very close. Rick Outzen: And that's similar to what happened to DeSantis and Gillum back in twenty eighteen. Sena: Mm-hmm. Rick Outzen: DeSantis had about that amount of of of a lead and which forced a recount. the statewide you're looking at you know, Moody's is pulling ahead, but it's still it's gonna probably that's gonna be a very close race. fifty percent, fifty and a half to forty eight point four. you're looking Governor's race, golly, forty-nine point six to forty-nine point two. that is Sena: Yeah, that's what I have. Rick Outzen: is about as close as you can get. the and then you look at it Uthmeyer's pulling ahead, Rodriguez, the homestead exemptions holding at about sixty two percent of the vote with eighty five percent already counted. that is is yeah. Sena: I can't believe af that after that great Grady Judd commercial. Rick Outzen: Yeah, yeah. It just nobody Yeah, people want their taxes down. But it looks like Republicans are holding across the board slightly better than fifty percent of the vote. It's not a landslide for anybody, but they seem to be holding their Jeff DeWeese: The one that Rick Outzen: the Jeff DeWeese: The one that cracks me up is Bruce Barcelo used to always say 40% of the voters would vote against the second coming of Christ. With the judges to retain or not retain. And there they are. It's you start looking at the judges and it is consistent. 43 to 42 percent thumbs down. Nobody knows who they are. Rick Outzen: Right. Yeah, i yeah. it looks like in the in the house races, Patronas looks like he's gonna go he's going back, got a nineteen point lead there. Mikowski looks like he's gonna win his district. That was one that everyone was watching to see if if that would happen. he was able to keep it. They re gerrymandered that district to make it possible. the it is this I tell you what, the the District 4 race is is gonna continue to tighten up. We've got 14. it's about a 200 and a 200 vote margin, 208 vote margin between Hofberger and Vincent. Sena: wow. Rick Outzen: Joe has got 11,613 votes. Hofberger's got eleven thousand four one. So you're looking at roughly forty-nine and a half versus fifty and a half. For Vincent, Bent Lois Benson. Jeff DeWeese: Yeah, well, okay, so Rick Outzen: Go ahead. Jeff DeWeese: a lot of people, if you go down the the national and statewide ticket, Moody fifty-four to forty-four, Patronas fifty-three to forty-six, Donald's fifty-three to forty five, Uthmeyer fifty-five forty-five, CFO fifty-five forty-five. Agriculture 55 45. I I don't know that there was a lot of contemplation in those votes. But Jesus Rick Outzen: Well right now it looks like in the city council district two race, we've got the numbers in, two precincts recorded. Myers looks like she's going back. she's got 1,338 votes, and Bear's got 1,122 votes of you know 200 and 200 votes separating them. that looks to be that's gonna hold. That won't be a recount there. White, Boyce White, City Council District 4 has a lead over Brian. it is roughly about a hundred and ten vote difference between the two of them. 48% for Brian Cole, 52%. Jeff DeWeese: And only one precinct left to come in. Rick Outzen: Yeah, one left to go there. So we'll see how that shakes out. The well, Jeff, for you sign off, what do you see? What's the big thing that jumps out at you at this locally? Jeff DeWeese: I tell you the statewide looks crazy. Rick Outzen: Yeah. Jeff DeWeese: it looks like we're gonna have a whole new batch of everybody. Rick Outzen: Yeah, it's it's and they're gonna be a you know, like we said earlier, both sides were preparing for a recount and it's gonna happen. I think we're gonna have to have recounts in these races. And so all right, buddy, I appreciate you calling in. Dan McFaul: Thanks. Jeff DeWeese: Not at all. Dan McFaul: Hey Rick, how you doing? Rick Outzen: Hey hey Dan. Let me see if I can get you signed in, Dan. Just second. Let's see. All right, I got everything but photo. You going without camera? Dan Oluja. Here we go. There we go. Well, what are you seeing, Dan? Dan McFaul: Well, I'm seeing the cusp of a blue wave, Rick. It it's still what I would call a blue tide at this point. but we're seeing some pretty dramatic numbers. Some of the early numbers out of Florida in the Senate and Governors race and some of the congressional w races, frankly, were quite shocking. you know, I know that the Democrats have a better record of early voting, but even with that some of these races I think are a lot closer than was anticipated. The Senate race with Moody and Mixon is it's about a two point two percentage point race right now. we've got about ninety five percent of the vote in, but there's only about a two hundred thousand vote margin between Moody and and and Angie Nixon. her campaign, Nixon's campaign ran a heck of a race and really has been everywhere. But I'm I'm gonna go ahead and say this one's gonna fall towards Ashley Moody with this many votes in. Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Dan McFaul: On the governor side, Donald's and Jolly is still incredibly tight. a little lower vote totals than for the Senate race, but we're still forty nine point seven to forty nine. So very much within the margin of error, a little bit fewer results in so far. they're a little slower counting that governor's race. I I still think Byron's gonna eke it out at the end of the day, but I think it's closer than was anticipated. Rick Outzen: Right. Yeah, we we saw less Republican turnout in the panhandle before, just not as as much excitement about the candidates. Republicans in Escambie County, Democrats came out better than they did in twenty twenty two. More Democrats voted, almost a sixty percent turnout for them, which is huge. Yeah. Dan McFaul: Well, I think Democratic voters and and certain independent voters were motivated to to turn out for this race. they wanted to push back against the Trump administration, some their policies. you know, most of these midterm races you know tend to be, you know, personalities, kid candidate against candidate. But in this this race it it has been a turnout race and a lot of time it's it's been Trump versus the the couch in front of Netflix has been kind of the race. I I will say one thing. our our Rick Outzen: wait, we've got it Dan McFaul: incumbent Congressman Jimmy Petronas is is is solidly up now with sixty eight percent of the vote in. he's at fifty-nine percent to thirty-nine percent. I'm also tracking really close on this race is Scambia County. Jimmy underperformed in the special elections where he got elected and and did not win Scambia County. He was the first Republican congressional candidate to to not win to scambia county going all the way back to Erl Hutto. So I'm tracking that. He's actually fifty two percent fifty two point nine percent to forty five right now with about eighty eight percent of the the vote in. and in Okaloosa he's at sixty two percent. Santa Rosa he's at sixty seven point eight. and he's getting into you know Matt Gates Jeff Miller territory w with those numbers. Rick Outzen: Right. Well locally, just to break in just for a second, the District Four County Commission race, all nineteen precincts are in. Vincent has a thirty, let's see, a thirty-two point lead. Tirty thirty-two votes over Hofberger. so that'll be definitely be a recount there. but Vincent has twelve thousand seven hundred and seventy. Hofberger has twelve thousand. seven forty eight. y never in the history of Escambia County has an MPA candidate beat anybody, much less a Republican and an incumbent Republican who outraged him like Dan McFaul: Yeah. Rick Outzen: two to one or three to one. it's amazing. Dan McFaul: You've seen this growth ring, Rick across Florida and throughout Escambia County, the the fastest growing voter registration is that NPA independent voter profile. The folks that are disappointed with the extremes of both the Republican and the Democrat Party, and they said, Hey, neither one of these parties is me. I'm I'm just gonna stay out. So I I think that that increase in in registration for NPAs As well as folks just saying, Hey, we want something different. I think that's gonna be a big story in this election and that's probably why Joe's doing so well against his his incumbent opposition there. But it's it's obviously gonna be a re recount. You're within that one percent that's required by state law. They do do a hand recount, so a machine recount and then a hand recount could be requested. So I expect it may be a few days on that county commission scene. Rick Outzen: Right. Well, and you know, you know the Vinson family. You remember Judge Vinson. You know, it it's you know, it's a family that's well known in district four. And of all the different county commission districts, family Dan McFaul: I went to school. Rick Outzen: family matters in that district. People want to know who your parents are, they want to know where you went to school, they watched you grow up. It it's it it's it's a really different district. yeah, Grover Robinson came out of that district, Robert Bender came out of that district. and so i it's it's a surprising upset, but it is on one level and then the other level is just that you know, good guys can win. W but we still gotta see how the recount goes. What are you watching? Yeah. Dan McFaul: Yeah, I imagine it'll still be a fight, but I grew up in the same neighborhood as the Vincent's. I I knew Todd, his brother, and and Kate and and all the family there. They're they're great Pensacola family, as you said. That goes a long way. the other thing I would say is Joe had a great non-political digital presence. His his history side I think really helped him. you Sena: Mm-hmm. Dan McFaul: know, I think he's really likable in those videos, and I think that helped his campaign out a whole lot. Rick Outzen: Yeah, I think so too. I think it made a big difference. what what races what races what are you gonna watch from Dan McFaul: Let's talk about the congressional races el elsewhere in Florida. Rick Outzen: now? What are you gonna be looking after you get off this call? What what races are you gonna be watching? Dan McFaul: Yeah, nationally I think there's some really interesting things in the Senate. The Republicans have already had a loss in the Senate. They they had North Carolina called against them. So that's good that was not surprising. That's what where polling has been. my eyes right now are on this Paxton Tal Rico race. Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Dan McFaul: Paxton is really underperforming in some places as high as twenty percent versus what what Trump has done in twenty four. so again, Paxton recall is the the Trump selected candidate who beat the incumbent John Cornyn and he is just underperforming and I I think part of the story of this election which is certainly a big part of the Florida and Texas story is how Hispanics have flipped back to blue Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Dan McFaul: from their performance in in 2024. You saw Trump actually went amongst Hispanics and in the state of Florida in 24. There was about a two percent difference in the state of Texas. It's completely flipped back. It's been about a ten to fourteen percent difference depending on what county you're looking at. Rick Outzen: Yeah. It it's it th it'll be very interesting to watch. Of course the Michigan race is there. That's another one that's out there. And Ohio has been an interesting state all the way around what happens there. So Dan McFaul: has been. that's gonna be one to watch. I I think the numbers that I've seen, it looks like Congressman Hewtsad's in a little bit of trouble in in Ohio. I'm sure sorry, Senator Hewshead's in a little bit trouble in Ohio. Michigan's gonna be down to the wire. Mike Rogers is a is a very well liked candidate there and has run a great campaign, has not had the controversies. this is gonna be one of those races that maybe data centers is the issue. there's a big push for and against data centers and the the candidates are very clearly opposed in their position. So that'll that'll be one to watch there. The other one I'm tracking is Kansas. again, Ruby Red slippers of Kansas should not be a questionable purple state but Marshall has not run a great campaign there and Hamilton is kind of this Bill Clinton nineteen nineties moderate Democrat who's really engaged with farmers. So that's gonna be a late night I feel on that one. Rick Outzen: Well Dan, thank you so much for calling in. I appreciate it. Dan McFaul: Thanks for having me on. Sorry about the video, but again, always a pleasure to be on. Thank you. Rick Outzen: That's all right. Take care. All right, bye. All right guys, I need y'all to come on back in. Yeah, please come back. Come on, Walker. I'll get Walker just a second. There we go. There we are. Sena: Okay, we go back. We lose Walker. this is interesting. I was looking at the the Alabama governor results are very Walker Wilson: there I Sena: close, but Doug Jones is leading now with fifty seven point eight percent. and and Doug won solidly in Mobile. Rick Outzen: Wow. Sena: So that's the w one of the first ones to call in the state of Alabama, but that is also too early. It's too early to call. Rick Outzen: What are you seeing, Walker? Walker Wilson: it's still the statewide stuff is still super close. it looks like it does look like the property tax amendment is gonna pass. It it did drop down a little bit, but it's still I think good little chunk over, yeah, sixty almost sixty-two percent voted for it. so that would be surprising if we're still just counting stuff in the panhandle for the panhandle to s change that below sixty percent. it does look like Boyce White will probably be victorious and taking Jared Moore's seat. Sherry Myers back on city council. and district four headed to a in a county commission headed to a recount. I did get word that I think that two hundred votes are still outstanding vote by mail for the entire county. So I don't know if that's I don't know how many of those are for District Four. and so it's that's gonna be just gonna keep getting drug out, I guess. So we'll just have to wait and see. Mike Kohler re elected. so Rick Outzen: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I I think it's it's we're seeing we're gonna see we'll see what happens there. Even if the two hundred, they won't they all won't be district four. We'll see what that does. it could tighten it up even more. th th the funny thing about the recounts for the most part is they don't really change much. we had a recount with PC Wu and Jennifer Brer a while back. That didn't change much. I remember the one of the more famous ones was Gene Valentino. and his first race Sena: What? Rick Outzen: was a real real close one. so it it happens where the recounts come. Hey Jeff. Doing well. Well, some surprises, huh? Jeff Bergosh: Yeah, some surprising outcomes thus far. I think we gonna at least have one recount in the local races, from what I can tell. Rick Outzen: Yeah, I think y it looks like, definitely. you Hofberger and Vin Vincent's done the impossible. you know, outraged against Jeff Bergosh: Yeah, that that's a real surprise. Rick Outzen: a Republican, against an incumbent, and has a very slight lead over Hofberger. the that's definitely gonna be a recount. Mike Kohler's definitely going back. huge win for him. Jeff Bergosh: Yes. Walker Wilson: and that's just changed, Rick. Commissioner Hofberger is now up eleven votes. in that. I just just add some more ballots in there. Jeff Bergosh: So so so Ashley Rick Outzen: okay. So now it's swapped. Now it's eleven vote with Hofberger ahead. Okay. So that's interesting. Yeah, yeah. Jeff Bergosh: Ashley's up by eleven votes, okay. Yeah, it was twenty four votes. Just when I when I got off the site just to come on with you, Rick, it was she was down twenty four with nineteen reporting. That just changed, Walker? Did that just change? Walker Wilson: It did, yeah, it just changed, just when I looked. Probably about the time you were getting on here. Rick Outzen: Yeah, they've Jeff Bergosh: Wow. Rick Outzen: they've got about two hundred mail in ballots that they're still counting, Jeff. That's what that's what Walker found out. So they're still counting a few mail in ballots. So this Jeff Bergosh: Holy mackerel. Rick Outzen: thing is this one will go down. This one is yeah, it's what? It's it is a eleven point lead for Hoffberger right now. So yeah, so we'll Jeff Bergosh: Eleven vote, not point. Eleven vote. What is that like point? my gosh, Rick. What about what about the statewide races? Rick Outzen: Leven bo you have Right. Yeah. Right. yeah. Walker Wilson: Yeah. Jeff Bergosh: Those are those are a lot closer than people thought as well. Rick Outzen: Yeah. it it's i it I think Donald's is pulling ahead by you know, he's got about a you know, a seventy five thousand vote lead right now. you know, that will you know, you got fifty to forty eight point nine or you're gonna have about a one percent difference between the two of That'll be a recount. it looks like all the races are working that way. It Attorney General's the same way, about the same kind of split as is you know, the CFO and the Ag Commissioner. They're all all the Republicans are getting right around fifty one and their opponents right around forty nine. so it's kinda Jeff Bergosh: Is that the panhandle coming in? Rick Outzen: holding across the board. Jeff Bergosh: That's the that's the panhandle effect, right? Coming in. Victory Lane. Rick Outzen: Yeah, yeah. it it's it's we still didn't have as the as much of a turnout up here as the rest of the state, but it yeah, it's kinda how it's shaping up. The it looks like the the homestead exemption's gonna pass. So city Jeff Bergosh: Yeah, I saw that. Rick Outzen: and county government's gonna have to really figure that out. That's gonna be a difficult challenge for all of to try to do. Jeff Bergosh: Rick, Rick, let me ask you, 'cause I'm I'm kinda out on an island, is that passing is that is that passing statewide? 'Cause here in Escambia it was at fifty five percent. It's gotta Rick Outzen: Yeah. Jeff Bergosh: get to sixty. Statewide it looks like it's gonna pass. Rick Outzen: It's at sixty t it's right around sixty two percent right now, statewide. Jeff Bergosh: my gosh. Wow. That's big. That's big. Rick Outzen: Yep. Yeah. Yeah. That one's that's huge. That's gonna change a lot of things. the any surprises that you see as you looked at it? Jeff Bergosh: Well, I I think then an NPA coming as close as Joe Vinson did to Ashley Hofberger, an incumbent Republican in District Four, is that's a that's a shock to me. I I I was watching that closely. Charles Bear getting defeated, that was a surprise to me as well. I didn't see that one coming. apparently it unless I haven't seen the last count, he was down. did he did he did he get beat by Gloria? Rick Outzen: No, he she she no, Sherry Myers beat him. Yeah. Jeff Bergosh: And as Sherry Myers. Okay. Yeah, that that was a surprise. John Faye pulled ahead. He was he was down initially, but he pulled ahead, didn't he? John Faye? Rick Outzen: Right. Santa Rosa County really delivered it for him. Jeff Bergosh: Okay. Rick Outzen: you know, you're looking at the the city council district four race between Brian Cole and Boyce White is really close too. You're looking at about a hundred and ten votes separating it it's that is gonna be close. Kohler wins easily, Lois Benson we wins easily, Litton's going in, ECUA. the Looks John Fay. John Faye will go in e well. Michelle Salzman is is going back. yeah. So not the big surprise I guess will be how we work out looking at all the provisional ballots, everything that's involved in that district four race. Yeah. Jeff Bergosh: Yeah, that district four race, that's gonna be something to be talking about, Rick. That'll be talked about for a long time. That's a close race. That's a close race. Well, thanks for letting me call in, Rick. Yes, sir. I look forward to talking to you in the Rick Outzen: Yeah. Well that'll give us conversation for tomorrow. All right. Jeff Bergosh: morning. Hopefully you'll have it all worked out by then. Yes, sir. Bye bye, guys. Bye. Rick Outzen: All right, take care, my friend. All right. Take care. All right, bye. Walker Wilson: huh. Rick Outzen: Yeah, it is yeah, this is this is just gonna be how you know, I s I just feel f I feel for any c candidates that are in close races, you know, it's because you've done everything you can do and now it's just you're and you're looking at eleven votes difference right now. which then the provisional votes could come into play, you know, how those are handled. whether they're accepted or not. the so Robert Bender's gonna be earning his pay for sure. Sena: Mm-hmm. Walker Wilson: Yeah. Most certainly. Rick Outzen: Yeah. Santa, what are you seeing over in Alabama? You get any little look? I lost you. You're so Sena: Excuse me. Rick Outzen: Yeah. But I think we we had Damek fall in. He looked around the state, saw the different things around the country. it is a blue wave in other states, maybe not as much here. And yeah, so it it's but we'll see. I mean the Vincent thing is gonna be interesting. you know, you look at this and and I don't with so many provisional ballots and the way vote by mail is, if she c if she has a lead now she'll probably hold it. You know, but we just we Yeah, you know. Walker Wilson: you would think so. coming in and getting somewhere, you know, probably close to 53% of the vote on election day. That would be my guess of what it's going to work out to somewhere in there. and if we're, you know, unless there's more mail-in ballots that are coming in, that maybe you would think would maybe lean Joe Vinson's way. I don't know. It that's that that's a fun task for the supervisor to to work through for sure. Rick Outzen: Right, right. Well, you're looking at the precincts where she really did well. The one that she did well in at the end was Principal Christian, where she ended up with almost seventy-eight percent of the vote there. they had five hundred and thirty-four people vote in that precinct, which it was down where it was before. the she also did well in precinct ninety four, and I think that's the beach. let me see Walker Wilson: Yeah, the beach is ninety four. Rick Outzen: Right. She did well on the beach. She got sixty eight percent of the vote on the beach. the and then you know, Joe did well on a lot of the other precincts. He did well at forty one, which is Bayview Community Center. he did well there, in both those two precincts. the it's just amazing how much analysis Joe that they can give us so quickly, in this. So it it's This is one that we're gonna be watching tomorrow. I'll probably do some homework on it tonight. and Walker Wilson: Yeah and Rick Outzen: right now we've we'll go through one more time who all the winners appear right now as we go through it, just the local races. you've got Michelle Salzman is going back to the state house with s almost 60% of the vote. John Fay will be the new District 2 state rep. Mike Kohler is returning to the County Commission with 56% of the vote. Hofberger and Vincent is going to be a recount. It's holding at about eleven votes difference between the two of them. Hofberger's has been trailing most of the night, and with this last handful of mail votes, vote by mail, she's pulled ahead. Benson's going back to ECUA. Greg Linton will join her in looking at City Council. Sherry Myers and Boyce White have won their races. I'm not sure if it's close enough for the Cole and White race to be a recount, but Myers is a healthy lead over Charles Bear. and the county referendum for one cent sales tax has 75% of the vote. So I think that's huge. the state races are all holding with Republicans somewhere around 51% and the Democratic opponent around 48%. The closest, and that's kind of holding across all the boards. and the measure to get rid of homes or a larger exemption on homesteads is sixty two percent of the vote. that is looks like that's going to pass. So I think we've cut over all we needed to cover, guys. Yeah. Yeah. Sena: Well you asked me about Alabama and it's it's all changed since the last time I talked to you about it. Tommy Tumerville is ahead, but those those are counties in the mid o middle of the state are starting to report. I think that's that's that Alabama governor's race is gonna depend on what happens in Birmingham. Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. And you said mobile came heavily for Jolly? Yeah. Jones. I'm sorry, Jones. Okay, my fault. So Sena: Yeah. for for Jones. Doug Jones. Yeah. Rick Outzen: all right, guys, we did a pretty good job for our second time to try this. It Sena: Mm-hmm. Rick Outzen: worked a little bit better than before. you know, thank y'all for doing it and thank the you know for the viewers that we had. We'll keep playing and perfecting with this, but we'll sign off. Any last words from y'all? I've done a lot of this talking. Nope. Walker Wilson: No, I guess we just so gotta stay tuned for some of this, see how it all unfolds. It'll be fun to see Sena: Yeah, this is gonna we're gonna be talking about this for a while. Walker Wilson: Yeah, for sure. For sure. Rick Outzen: Yeah, we definitely will. All right. Thank y'all for doing it. I appreciate it. Walker Wilson: Yeah. Thanks for it.