Latest / The Morning Edition / Why this bird flu is a lot more dangerous than the last one

Transcript

Why this bird flu is a lot more dangerous than the last one · The Morning Edition

• 0:04
  S1: Over the weekend. A particularly deadly strain of bird flu
• 0:07
  S1: was confirmed in New South Wales for the very first time.
• 0:12
  S1: This now takes the total of confirmed cases nationwide to six.
• 0:18
  S1: I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition
• 0:21
  S1: from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, science
• 0:26
  S1: reporter Angus Dalton on how much of a risk we're
• 0:29
  S1: dealing with now. It's July the 7th. Angus, welcome back
• 0:38
  S1: to the podcast.
• 0:39
  S2: Thanks for having me, Sam.
• 0:40
  S1: Okay, let's get straight into this. Why are we reading
• 0:43
  S1: about bird flu now? You know what's happening.
• 0:46
  S2: We're reading about bird flu because this really virulent, deadly
• 0:50
  S2: form of the disease, which first arose in 2021, has
• 0:54
  S2: finally made it to Australian shores. And until about two
• 0:57
  S2: weeks ago, when we had the first confirmed case in
• 1:00
  S2: Western Australia. Australia was actually the final continental holdout for
• 1:05
  S2: this disease, and I think a lot of experts are
• 1:08
  S2: surprised it hasn't arrived earlier, to be honest. But overseas
• 1:12
  S2: we have seen massive, massive, catastrophic levels of damage to
• 1:18
  S2: wildlife populations, not just birds, but it's also gotten into
• 1:22
  S2: marine mammals like seals, dolphins, and of course, in places
• 1:26
  S2: like the US, they've also seen widespread devastation to their
• 1:29
  S2: poultry industry as well, with upwards of, I think, 160
• 1:32
  S2: million chickens culled to do with this specific, very deadly
• 1:37
  S2: strain of bird flu.
• 1:38
  S1: Okay. So tell us first of all, why has it
• 1:40
  S1: just arrived now? Like, how did it get here? And
• 1:43
  S1: I guess just tell us very briefly about where these
• 1:45
  S1: cases have been found, because of course, you reported just
• 1:48
  S1: over the weekend that the first case had been confirmed
• 1:51
  S1: in New South Wales, but it's national, right?
• 1:54
  S2: Yeah. There's two ways to answer that question. One is
• 1:57
  S2: that the virus is getting here through migratory subantarctic birds.
• 2:01
  S2: It sort of crossed from Antarctic waters over into waters
• 2:05
  S2: off Australia. We're seeing the virus so far in species
• 2:09
  S2: like skuas and also the giant petrel, which is a
• 2:12
  S2: really big bird. It's got a wingspan of about two metres,
• 2:16
  S2: so it can travel a really long distance. And the
• 2:19
  S2: other key thing about these species is that they are scavengers.
• 2:23
  S2: So they will often eat carcasses that they come across.
• 2:26
  S2: And that's one key way that the virus can spread
• 2:29
  S2: from a sick animal, which it might have killed into
• 2:32
  S2: a living animal that can then travel a very long
• 2:35
  S2: distance and take the virus from somewhere like the sub-Antarctic,
• 2:39
  S2: where we know the virus has taken hold to Australian waters.
• 2:43
  S2: And the reason that we've sort of seen this pattern
• 2:45
  S2: of the virus arriving in Western Australia first, possibly, is
• 2:50
  S2: the fact that around Antarctica there's what's called a flyway,
• 2:54
  S2: which a lot of sub-Antarctic birds follow. So this is
• 2:57
  S2: a big sort of clockwise moving circle of circumpolar air
• 3:03
  S2: that these birds fly around. And that's sort of why
• 3:07
  S2: you've maybe seen these birds start to arrive on the
• 3:09
  S2: shores of Western Australia. Then we had another case in
• 3:12
  S2: South Australia moving east. And then finally that one confirmed
• 3:17
  S2: case that we got over the weekend just north of
• 3:19
  S2: Newcastle in New South Wales, marking the virus's arrival to
• 3:23
  S2: the east coast. That's sort of why it maybe crossed
• 3:26
  S2: from the west to the east. The other really interesting
• 3:29
  S2: thing going on is that there was an Antarctic bird
• 3:32
  S2: expert who had just come back from Antarctica, who told
• 3:34
  S2: one of our reporters, Mike Foley, that there seems to
• 3:37
  S2: be this sort of unprecedented phenomenon unfolding at the moment
• 3:41
  S2: where we're seeing these marine heat waves in the Southern Ocean,
• 3:45
  S2: and that's possibly, possibly moving populations of seabirds up and
• 3:51
  S2: closer to the eastern seaboard of Australia. Normally, this bird
• 3:55
  S2: sort of hang out, out to sea, sort of on
• 3:57
  S2: the continental shelf, but when they get sick, a lot
• 4:00
  S2: of them will try and roost on the surface of
• 4:02
  S2: the ocean. They eventually get washed into shore, and that's
• 4:05
  S2: when you get these sick, infected shorebirds collapsing on the shoreline.
• 4:10
  S2: So we do seem to be seeing a lot more
• 4:12
  S2: of these sort of giant petrels skuas. And one of
• 4:15
  S2: our photographers saw an albatross off Sydney over the weekend.
• 4:18
  S2: And I've seen video of, you know, whale watching tours,
• 4:21
  S2: posting these videos of giant petrels, which aren't unheard of
• 4:24
  S2: in Australian waters. But there is a lot of anecdotal evidence,
• 4:27
  S2: at least, that a lot of these sub-Antarctic species are
• 4:30
  S2: coming in closer to the Australian shoreline, which may be
• 4:33
  S2: one of the drivers behind the virus's arrival.
• 4:35
  S1: Okay, so tell us what's worrying experts now the most,
• 4:38
  S1: because you mentioned that we had bird flu in Australia
• 4:41
  S1: in 2021. You and I spoke on the podcast at
• 4:44
  S1: the time and at the time, if I'm understanding correctly,
• 4:47
  S1: the most worrying aspect was that it was going to
• 4:49
  S1: get into poultry farms and egg prices were going to
• 4:51
  S1: go up and that sort of thing. So I guess
• 4:53
  S1: maybe you can tell us the difference between that strain
• 4:56
  S1: of bird flu And what we're seeing now, and what
• 4:59
  S1: is worrying experts the most?
• 5:01
  S2: Definitely the key difference about this strain is that it
• 5:05
  S2: is a very keen spillover virus, which means that it
• 5:09
  S2: loves to jump between different species. So unlike the other
• 5:13
  S2: strains of bird flu that might arrive in Australia when
• 5:16
  S2: become really concerned about the poultry industry and chicken farms
• 5:19
  S2: in that instance. That's also obviously a concern for this virus.
• 5:23
  S2: But what we've seen overseas is the broader catastrophe actually
• 5:27
  S2: being in wildlife populations, like I said before, because for
• 5:30
  S2: whatever reason, this virus is really good at jumping into
• 5:34
  S2: things like we've seen in the US, like dairy cows,
• 5:37
  S2: like cats, like dogs, like minks and other mammals, which
• 5:41
  S2: is obviously a concern when you think about the possible
• 5:45
  S2: human impact of this, because any time it jumps into
• 5:47
  S2: a mammal, it gives the virus an evolutionary chance to
• 5:50
  S2: gain adaptations that can better infect mammals, which is also
• 5:53
  S2: people us. But that's the main issue. It can just
• 5:56
  S2: jump really easily between different species. So it's not just
• 5:59
  S2: limited to birds like I guess a lot of other
• 6:02
  S2: bird flu has been for whatever reason, it can just
• 6:05
  S2: spread between different species really easily, which makes it a
• 6:08
  S2: lot more dangerous.
• 6:09
  S1: Okay, well, let's get into this because I think this
• 6:11
  S1: is sort of an underlying fear for I imagine, many
• 6:14
  S1: people who would be listening, certainly including myself. So are
• 6:17
  S1: humans now at risk of getting this?
• 6:20
  S3: I would say the risk is definitely low.
• 6:22
  S2: All of the public health authorities, from Australia to the
• 6:25
  S2: US have assured us that the risk is very low.
• 6:27
  S2: And I mean, you know, any kind of new emergence
• 6:31
  S2: of a virus or a zoonosis is a numbers game.
• 6:34
  S2: And we have certainly seen this virus circulate in huge numbers,
• 6:38
  S2: as I said, in every other continent except Australia. And
• 6:40
  S2: what we haven't seen is sustained transmission from person to person,
• 6:45
  S2: which is what you'd really worry about in terms of,
• 6:47
  S2: you know, pandemic risk. People can get infected directly from animals.
• 6:51
  S2: That's one of the reasons why authorities have told people
• 6:54
  S2: not to go near or touch dead or sick birds
• 6:57
  S2: on beaches at the moment. And we've seen, I think,
• 7:00
  S2: a couple of hundred cases overseas, at least one death
• 7:03
  S2: in the US from someone who caught the virus from
• 7:06
  S2: their backyard chickens. But that person actually had underlying health issues.
• 7:10
  S2: And the other thing about this strain of the virus,
• 7:12
  S2: even though it is very, very deadly for animals and wildlife,
• 7:16
  S2: is that it actually seems to be possibly less dangerous
• 7:20
  S2: or less deadly to people. Like when we've seen other
• 7:23
  S2: types of bird flu jump into people. We've seen mortality
• 7:26
  S2: rates of about 50%, although that might be an artifact
• 7:28
  S2: of sort of only the most sort of extreme cases
• 7:31
  S2: get reported. But for, for this strain, we've actually only
• 7:34
  S2: seen a mortality rate of more like 2%.
• 7:37
  S1: And for humans, for humans, for humans.
• 7:39
  S2: Exactly. But a lot, a lot of things would need
• 7:41
  S2: to happen evolutionarily for this virus to be able to
• 7:44
  S2: jump into humans properly and actually spread between us. At
• 7:47
  S2: the moment, it remains adapted mostly to the gut cells
• 7:51
  S2: of birds, which is mostly how it spreads. It can't
• 7:54
  S2: really latch on very well to human respiratory cells, which
• 7:58
  S2: is another reason why we can't really spread it very
• 8:00
  S2: well between each other. But in saying that, authorities have
• 8:03
  S2: said that, you know, we can actually all help reduce
• 8:07
  S2: the slight risk of bird flu to humans by getting
• 8:10
  S2: our seasonal flu shot. Because one of the issues with
• 8:14
  S2: influenza viruses is that they love to recombine with each other.
• 8:17
  S2: So if you had a scenario where there was a
• 8:21
  S2: human and it's a very low chance, but a chance
• 8:23
  S2: nonetheless that a human were co-infected with bird flu and
• 8:26
  S2: human influenza, you're actually giving the chance, giving the virus
• 8:30
  S2: the chance to reshuffle its genetics within the human body
• 8:33
  S2: and possibly give rise to a new type of sickness
• 8:37
  S2: that could more easily infect people. Again, the risk is
• 8:40
  S2: very low, but that can also happen in other animals
• 8:42
  S2: such as pigs. Pigs are another species that can catch
• 8:45
  S2: bird flu and human flu at the same time. So
• 8:48
  S2: there are another sort of petri dish or, you know,
• 8:50
  S2: reshuffling vessel that scientists are a little bit worried about,
• 8:54
  S2: but overall, the risk to humans is very low. Like
• 8:57
  S2: I said, this virus is everywhere and there has been
• 8:59
  S2: no no sign that it is emerging in a big
• 9:02
  S2: way in humans whatsoever.
• 9:07
  S1: After the break.
• 9:08
  S2: That's when it becomes like a bushfire, uncontrollable. And once
• 9:11
  S2: it's in those local wildlife populations, there is very, very,
• 9:15
  S2: very little we can do practically to stop the virus
• 9:18
  S2: basically ripping through them.
• 9:32
  S1: And I wanted to ask you about one other potential risk,
• 9:35
  S1: I guess, with this latest strain of bird flu arriving here,
• 9:38
  S1: because you wrote that biosecurity experts have likened the six
• 9:42
  S1: seabirds arriving at Australian beaches to ember attacks. I guess
• 9:47
  S1: just tell us about that. Like, how much of a
• 9:48
  S1: risk of all of this just absolutely flaring up and
• 9:52
  S1: getting out of control, is there?
• 9:54
  S3: Well, this is the big question, Sam.
• 9:55
  S2: Like we're seeing obviously these little birds wash up on
• 9:59
  S2: the Australian shore. Everyone is like a little spot fire,
• 10:02
  S2: if you like. On the edge of Australia, surveyors are
• 10:05
  S2: racing to get there before scavengers do. Although those birds
• 10:08
  S2: spread the virus into local bird populations, because once that
• 10:13
  S2: virus goes from a little single, isolated incident like we've
• 10:17
  S2: been seeing into the natural bird population, that's when it
• 10:21
  S2: becomes like a bushfire, uncontrollable. And once it's in those
• 10:24
  S2: local wildlife populations, there is very, very, very little we
• 10:28
  S2: can do practically to stop the virus basically ripping through them.
• 10:32
  S2: And to be honest, it's really, really difficult to see
• 10:35
  S2: how a place like Australia, which has such a vast coastline,
• 10:40
  S2: could possibly stop the virus from coming in permanently. All
• 10:45
  S2: it would take is one bird washing up on an
• 10:48
  S2: unpatrolled beach that isn't found before a scavenger pecks added
• 10:52
  S2: that scavenger takes it into the local wildlife population and
• 10:55
  S2: then you've got a bushfire on your hands. It's kind
• 10:58
  S2: of you know, it may not happen, but I think
• 11:01
  S2: the sensible consensus is that this is possibly a bit
• 11:04
  S2: of an inevitability for Australia.
• 11:06
  S1: And so what does that mean? What's the sticky end
• 11:08
  S1: of that eventuality? Like, say this does rip into the
• 11:11
  S1: local bird population. What's the consequence of that?
• 11:15
  S2: I mean, overseas, like I said, we've seen entire colonies
• 11:17
  S2: of birds collapse. It could push certain species to the
• 11:20
  S2: brink of extinction. Essentially, we'll just see the virus circulate
• 11:24
  S2: in natural populations until it sort of becomes just part
• 11:28
  S2: of the part of the woodwork. Exactly how we've seen
• 11:31
  S2: Covid just become sort of from this huge pandemic virus
• 11:35
  S2: to kind of just like a virus that circulates naturally
• 11:38
  S2: alongside the common cold and flu. The same thing will
• 11:41
  S2: happen in wildlife populations. But unfortunately, what we will see
• 11:44
  S2: is mass deaths, probably if that happens, and obviously, if
• 11:48
  S2: the virus gets into local wild bird populations that very
• 11:54
  S2: much ups the risk of it getting into chicken farms
• 11:58
  S2: and the poultry industry, because, for example, it would only
• 12:01
  S2: take one wild duck to fly over a chicken farm,
• 12:04
  S2: defecate into the chicken farm, and then suddenly you've exposed
• 12:07
  S2: that poultry to this virus. So there's a link here
• 12:11
  S2: between the health of wild birds, the health of our
• 12:14
  S2: poultry industry, and sort of in one way, us.
• 12:17
  S1: And so you mentioned there before that, okay, with the
• 12:20
  S1: size of Australia, with the amount of coastline that we've got,
• 12:22
  S1: it's inevitable really that this is going to happen. So
• 12:25
  S1: does that mean our poultry farmers, just on absolute tenterhooks
• 12:28
  S1: at the moment, like, is this what we're staring down
• 12:30
  S1: the barrel of happening that, you know, poultry farms being
• 12:33
  S1: absolutely decimated by this virus? And, you know, obviously the
• 12:37
  S1: horrible deaths of all these animals, but also just chicken prices,
• 12:41
  S1: egg prices just skyrocketing. Like, is that what we're looking
• 12:44
  S1: down the barrel of?
• 12:45
  S2: Look, not necessarily when it comes to the poultry industry,
• 12:48
  S2: you know, because they've had to deal with other strains
• 12:51
  S2: of bird flu. Over the past years. And they. They
• 12:54
  S2: have to crack down, obviously very strongly that with biosecurity measures,
• 12:57
  S2: which often involves the mass culling of chickens. But every
• 13:01
  S2: one of these bird flu incursions in previous years has
• 13:04
  S2: been successfully contained. Obviously, if it did get into the
• 13:08
  S2: poultry population, we would see an increase in things like
• 13:11
  S2: egg and chicken prices, probably, but there has been no
• 13:14
  S2: evidence whatsoever of that. So experts have said not to panic. Buy.
• 13:17
  S2: Just keep buying your chicken and your eggs as normal.
• 13:20
  S2: And the other thing about the poultry industry, I guess
• 13:23
  S2: compared to something like wild birds, is that we have
• 13:26
  S2: a lot more control over those birds, right? You know,
• 13:29
  S2: there's a, there's a body that sort of looks after
• 13:31
  S2: animal disease preparedness. And they actually just recommended over the
• 13:34
  S2: weekend that states encourage poultry producers to be able to
• 13:39
  S2: keep their free range flocks indoors for a little bit,
• 13:41
  S2: just as we try and figure out what level of
• 13:45
  S2: risk we're talking about here. Because for all the, I guess,
• 13:48
  S2: you know, the disaster that could happen. What we've seen
• 13:51
  S2: so far is just six cases. That could be it.
• 13:54
  S2: You know, maybe it won't flare into this big bushfire
• 13:57
  S2: that experts are fearing. And like I said, poultry farmers
• 14:01
  S2: vary across having to deal with this by security threat.
• 14:04
  S2: And they'll continue to do that.
• 14:05
  S1: And just to wrap up, Angus, I just wanted to
• 14:07
  S1: ask you, you mentioned before that the difference between this
• 14:10
  S1: particular bird strain flu and the one that we spoke
• 14:12
  S1: about in 2021, when we last spoke about the previous
• 14:15
  S1: strain that had come here and caused problems, is, of course,
• 14:19
  S1: that this one likes to jump species. And in particular,
• 14:22
  S1: of course, obviously when it jumps into mammals, us being mammals,
• 14:25
  S1: that's when it gets, I guess, quite frightening on a
• 14:27
  S1: personal level. So is what we should be on the
• 14:29
  S1: lookout for. For those of us who are reading across
• 14:31
  S1: this like that, if it jumps into pigs here, then
• 14:34
  S1: it's a real scary sort of scenario. Is that something
• 14:37
  S1: we should be looking out for?
• 14:38
  S2: I mean, possibly it's certainly it's certainly a scenario that
• 14:41
  S2: worries scientists. But again, like I said before, even though
• 14:45
  S2: it's a possibility, this virus has been circulating widely in
• 14:48
  S2: dairy cows in the US, for example, and we haven't
• 14:51
  S2: seen the re-emergence of a virus that's more dangerous to people.
• 14:55
  S2: So just because I guess it's come to Australia, obviously
• 14:58
  S2: that does open the opportunities for it to infect different species,
• 15:03
  S2: infect other livestock like pigs, and possibly recombine and re-emerge
• 15:07
  S2: as a worse virus. But in terms of the numbers game,
• 15:10
  S2: you know, there's far less people and pigs than livestock
• 15:12
  S2: in Australia than there is in places like Asia and
• 15:15
  S2: the US, where this virus has been circulating for a
• 15:17
  S2: number of years and we haven't seen disaster yet. So
• 15:20
  S2: it is a concern and scientists are monitoring it. But
• 15:23
  S2: the status at the moment is to be alert, not alarmed.
• 15:29
  S1: Low-fat Angus. Well, thank you so much for coming back
• 15:33
  S1: onto the podcast anytime.
• 15:34
  S2: Thanks, Sam.
• 15:48
  S1: In other news today, record numbers of Australians are making
• 15:51
  S1: the switch to electric cars as new data proves modern
• 15:55
  S1: batteries last far longer than early adopters were warned. The
• 15:59
  S1: head of the Productivity Commission has warned that young Australians
• 16:02
  S1: hopes of good paying jobs and starting a family are
• 16:06
  S1: being frustrated by a dysfunctional housing market. And with 7
• 16:10
  S1: billion eggs consumed in Australia every year, we break down
• 16:14
  S1: the packaging codes on cartons so you know exactly what
• 16:17
  S1: you're buying and eating. You can read more at the
• 16:21
  S1: age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Josh towers.
• 16:29
  S1: Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are
• 16:33
  S1: overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like
• 16:36
  S1: our show, follow the Morning Edition and leave a review
• 16:39
  S1: for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.