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2025 Ultra Trail Capetown (UTCT) 100k Preview · Let's Talk Trail Running

0:01
SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome to Let's Talk Trail Running.
0:03
SPEAKER_00: This is your host,
0:05
SPEAKER_00: Robert Prosser,
0:05
and this is the show where we do previews on upcoming trail
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races in the trail
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SPEAKER_00: running world,
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SPEAKER_00: specifically,
0:13
primarily covering races that are going to be included on
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Fantasy Free Trail,
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SPEAKER_00: which is Free Trail,
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the media entity's fantasy website for picking a top five or
0:26
top ten field in
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SPEAKER_00: different trail running races.
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SPEAKER_00: So this covers everything from sky races to ultra races,
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anything from trail sub ultra distances to 100 plus milers to
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even Cocodona 250.
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SPEAKER_00: So this is where we preview upcoming races.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: And the
0:45
fandom in the trail running world and also to get you guys more
0:49
educated about the
0:50
runners that you are watching race and create fans of the sport
0:54
by giving you
0:55
SPEAKER_00: somebody to cheer for by letting you know more about them.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: So that is our intro for today.
1:01
SPEAKER_00: And today we're doing back to back episodes.
1:03
Yesterday I hit you with a preview of JFK 50 miler,
1:06
which is this upcoming weekend.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: And today is Monday the 17th.
1:10
I'm recording this in the evening in Colorado Springs and we're
1:13
trying to get out the preview of
1:14
SPEAKER_00: For the Ultra Trail Cape Town 100K,
1:19
SPEAKER_00: both of these races typically coming on the same weekends,
1:22
SPEAKER_00: usually the Sunday before Thanksgiving.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: So like that third week of November time frame,
1:28
SPEAKER_00: a nice little mix of two different classic but also competitive races,
1:34
SPEAKER_00: one in the States and in this case,
1:36
one in South Africa as it is starting to come into their summer
1:40
down there in the
1:40
SPEAKER_00: Southern Hemisphere.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: Ultra Trail Cape Town 100k is what we are going to be previewing today.
1:47
And I'm going to read a description of the race per I Run Far's
1:52
article on it last year.
1:53
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to link it in my show notes.
1:54
SPEAKER_00: I Run Far I think always does a very,
1:56
SPEAKER_00: very good job not only of race recaps,
1:58
SPEAKER_00: but kind of capturing what the character of a race is.
2:02
SPEAKER_00: So for their race recap,
2:05
SPEAKER_00: uh,
2:05
SPEAKER_00: last year,
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SPEAKER_00: so runners had out at 4 AM,
2:09
SPEAKER_00: uh,
2:09
SPEAKER_00: in Cape town,
2:09
SPEAKER_00: South Africa.
2:11
It's known for its technical trails and steep climbing,
2:13
especially in the races.
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SPEAKER_00: First half,
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SPEAKER_00: the event comes at the tail end of the most,
2:18
SPEAKER_00: uh,
2:18
SPEAKER_00: of most Northern run hemisphere runner seasons,
2:20
SPEAKER_00: but the start of the Southern hemisphere summer,
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SPEAKER_00: there is approximately 4,970 meters or 16,300 feet of climbing,
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SPEAKER_00: uh,
2:30
SPEAKER_00: which is mainly done in overgrown,
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SPEAKER_00: rocky,
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SPEAKER_00: and exposed terrain of the 98-kilometer course,
2:35
SPEAKER_00: which they said is 61 miles.
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SPEAKER_00: It is part of a week-long festival.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: And it's also the final race in the World Trail Majors,
2:43
SPEAKER_00: so this does count towards the World Trail Majors standings,
2:46
SPEAKER_00: or at least last year it did.
2:47
SPEAKER_00: I'm pretty sure this year it does as well.
2:49
SPEAKER_00: So they start at Garden's Rugby Club.
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Runners get a few kilometers of downhill before sinking their
2:55
legs into the first
2:56
SPEAKER_00: climb up Signal Hill.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: From there,
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SPEAKER_00: they climb up to Table Mountain via Plat Clip Gorge,
3:02
SPEAKER_00: a route with gradients over 35 degrees.
3:04
This is the technical crux of the race,
3:06
and all this takes place in the first 31 kilometers.
3:10
Descending rugged and steep trails down to the beach from 1,000
3:12
meters up on Table
3:13
SPEAKER_00: Mountain,
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SPEAKER_00: runners then contend with the heat of the day.
3:16
SPEAKER_00: Last year,
3:16
it reached up to 77 degrees before getting up and over four
3:19
more major climbs of
3:21
SPEAKER_00: about 500 meters each or 1,600 feet.
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SPEAKER_00: So they have about four 1,600 feet climbs.
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And then the final 10K involves a steep climb up to the
3:30
blockhouse before descent
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SPEAKER_00: back to the finish.
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SPEAKER_00: Throughout the second half of the day,
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SPEAKER_00: runners consistently pick up ice and cool things to stay cool.
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SPEAKER_00: And that is kind of the details on the Ultra Trail Cape Town.
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SPEAKER_00: So we have some interesting storylines.
3:44
We have some interesting runners in the field that I am excited
3:47
to talk about today.
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SPEAKER_00: We are going to talk about the men's side first.
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SPEAKER_00: It is a little bit deeper.
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And I do think there's a little bit more interesting storylines
3:55
on the men's side.
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SPEAKER_00: So we're going to start off there.
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SPEAKER_00: And then we'll go to the women's side after that.
4:00
So looking at the men's side,
4:01
just reading off some of the names immediately from the list.
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SPEAKER_00: Chris Myers, Peter Frano.
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SPEAKER_00: Jeff McAvro,
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SPEAKER_00: Dimitri Mityev,
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SPEAKER_00: Joaquin Lopez,
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SPEAKER_00: Adam Loomis,
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SPEAKER_00: Marcel Hoech,
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SPEAKER_00: Grant Barnett,
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SPEAKER_00: Ben Quatrimoni,
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SPEAKER_00: Mark Bernadez,
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SPEAKER_00: Arlen Glick,
4:20
SPEAKER_00: and Matthew Healy are some of the names that are coming across my radar.
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SPEAKER_00: And when we're talking about the race in terms of storylines,
4:27
SPEAKER_00: dark horses,
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SPEAKER_00: and predictions,
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SPEAKER_00: I'll start with my storylines.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: The storylines I identified for this year's Ultra Trail Cape Town 100K,
4:34
SPEAKER_00: I put Ken Dima,
4:36
SPEAKER_00: which is Dmitry Mityev,
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SPEAKER_00: the Adidas Terex athlete,
4:39
Russian who I think lives in either Andorra or Spain and has a
4:42
big trail running
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SPEAKER_00: business over there.
4:44
Can Dima bounce back from a down season that has been plagued
4:48
with health issues
4:49
SPEAKER_00: and race back to his old format,
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SPEAKER_00: a race that we've seen him dominate at?
4:53
SPEAKER_00: We've seen him win twice.
4:55
SPEAKER_00: I put that him and his monster quads do very well in previous years.
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SPEAKER_00: So he has some very impressive quads.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: We've seen him win this race twice,
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but he's kind of had a string of a lot of DNFs pretty much this
5:04
entire year.
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And it kind of started with UTMB last year and then Ultra Trail
5:09
Cape Town.
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SPEAKER_00: And then it's kind of been
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SPEAKER_00: a lot, a lot of DNFs due to some healthy issues.
5:14
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think he's totally identified what.
5:16
SPEAKER_00: So we'll talk more about that when I preview him individually.
5:19
SPEAKER_00: But can he bounce back and have the dominance?
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Because he knows this course super well and he knows how to run
5:24
it super well
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SPEAKER_00: because he's had success.
5:26
The other question I identified in the storyline was how many
5:29
spots does the
5:30
SPEAKER_00: American contingent get in the top five?
5:34
And I would identify those guys as Chris Myers,
5:36
Jeff McAvro,
5:38
Adam Loomis,
5:38
and Grant Barnett.
5:40
I put the over under at two and a half,
5:42
and I think we'll have at least three up there.
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SPEAKER_00: So I think we're going to see a minimum of two.
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And I think if we had to bet,
5:48
we'd have to put the over under at two and a half.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: But I think we'll probably even see three up there, in my opinion.
5:53
So I'll talk a little bit more about which three I think will
5:55
be up there and who I
5:57
SPEAKER_00: think could be some sleeper picks.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: In my opinion,
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SPEAKER_00: too,
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SPEAKER_00: I think with the storyline,
6:02
I think it's pretty exciting because there is really no
6:04
clear-cut favorite to win
6:06
SPEAKER_00: this race.
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I think Dima,
6:08
when he's been at top form,
6:09
Dimitri Mitya,
6:10
is pretty much the favorite.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: You know, he won it in 22 and 23.
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SPEAKER_00: And last year, I think I even picked him to win.
6:15
SPEAKER_00: But that kind of started his string of DNFs.
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And last year,
6:17
we saw a young French runner,
6:19
Hugo Deck,
6:19
for Adidas Terex take the win.
6:23
SPEAKER_00: In my opinion, kind of unexpectedly with his win here, followed by
6:29
Yeah,
6:29
Miguel Arsenio,
6:31
Michelino Sanceri,
6:32
Thibaut Gurivier,
6:34
and Patrick Urhenthaler.
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SPEAKER_00: We had a lot of DNFs or DNSs at the start.
6:39
SPEAKER_00: I think Hannes Namburger was also there,
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SPEAKER_00: who is a previous winner as well,
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SPEAKER_00: a joint winner with Dimitri Mettia,
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SPEAKER_00: but I think he was sick before the race.
6:49
SPEAKER_00: And then we had a number of other names, including... Let's see.
6:55
SPEAKER_00: Iron4Article says...
7:01
Um,
7:04
yeah,
7:04
I think there's a handful of others that did not start the
7:07
race.
7:07
So yeah,
7:08
Hannes Nauberger,
7:09
Petter Engdahl,
7:10
Andreas Reiterer,
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all,
7:11
uh,
7:11
were D and S's.
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SPEAKER_00: Um, so there's a lot of did not starts the race last year.
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SPEAKER_00: Uh, so those are the storylines I had identified.
7:22
SPEAKER_00: And then,
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SPEAKER_00: uh,
7:23
SPEAKER_00: with regards to dark horses,
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I got some names outlined and that we're going to talk about
7:26
here in a little bit,
7:27
SPEAKER_00: but I think Mark Bernadette is for,
7:29
SPEAKER_00: from Spain is a dark horse.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: Uh, Adam Loomis, uh, is a dark horse and we'll talk more about him.
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SPEAKER_00: I think he's looking really good for this race.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: Ben Quattromoni,
7:37
who's kind of like an East coast crusher that a lot of the U S
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people don't really
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SPEAKER_00: see,
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SPEAKER_00: but I've seen his name,
7:40
SPEAKER_00: all of our original signup and a bunch of classic East coast races.
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SPEAKER_00: So we'll talk more about him.
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SPEAKER_00: And then I also think potentially Beto Cabelli,
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SPEAKER_00: who's South African runner with some really good results in South Africa,
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SPEAKER_00: hasn't really brought them outside of South Africa yet,
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SPEAKER_00: but seems to probably know the course as well.
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If not better than anyone minus maybe demo with his a couple of
7:59
wins here.
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SPEAKER_00: So,
8:00
SPEAKER_00: Those are my dark horses identified.
8:02
And then my predictions,
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I think sadly that Dmitry Mityev is going to DNF again.
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SPEAKER_00: It's unfortunately been the theme of this year.
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SPEAKER_00: I'm not rooting for it to happen.
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SPEAKER_00: I don't want him to DNF.
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SPEAKER_00: I want him to bounce back.
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But I don't think he's quite figured out whatever health issue
8:15
is bugging him.
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SPEAKER_00: So I think Dima is going to DNF.
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SPEAKER_00: I think he would be a favorite if not for the year leading up to this.
8:22
My other prediction,
8:23
I think there would be three Americans in the top five.
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SPEAKER_00: My money is probably on Jeff McGavro, Adam Loomis,
8:29
SPEAKER_00: and maybe Chris Myers, although I might lean towards Grant Barnett.
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SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about that in a little bit.
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SPEAKER_00: And then I think there honestly will be four Americans in the top 10.
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SPEAKER_00: I think Ben Quattromani will be up there in the top 10 as well.
8:41
SPEAKER_00: I think that other predictions,
8:43
I believe Peter Frauno is going to continue to be one of the
8:46
most low-key crushers
8:47
SPEAKER_00: in the game.
8:48
I think he's definitely going to podium here and has the
8:50
possibility to win.
8:51
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about that in a little bit.
8:54
And then I think at least one of the big American contingent is
8:57
going to DNF.
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SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that'll be Chris Myers or Grant Barnett.
9:01
I think one of those two is probably going to DNF just based
9:04
off kind of combination of things.
9:08
SPEAKER_00: Other predictions,
9:09
SPEAKER_00: I think Marcel Hoch,
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SPEAKER_00: a German athlete for Tareks,
9:12
SPEAKER_00: is going to get revenge from his DNF here last year.
9:14
SPEAKER_00: I think he is going to go top seven, could potentially even go top five.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk more about that in a bit.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: So previewing this field on the men's side,
9:21
we've got Chris Myers to start with since he's got the highest
9:24
UTMB index.
9:25
That is the Brooks athlete and breakout star of the year who
9:29
moved from California
9:30
SPEAKER_00: to Boulder in the past two years.
9:32
He had that stellar second place run at Western States just in
9:35
front of the GOAT,
9:36
SPEAKER_00: Killian Jornay,
9:37
SPEAKER_00: and just narrowly behind with the winner,
9:39
SPEAKER_00: Caleb Olson,
9:39
SPEAKER_00: while it was a pretty epic battle,
9:41
SPEAKER_00: pretty iconic going into the scuba gear to cross the river.
9:45
Definitely super playful and definitely ran his freaking butt
9:48
off at Western States.
9:50
SPEAKER_00: His only race since then was a DNF at CCC,
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SPEAKER_00: which he said he wasn't fully recovered at from Western States.
9:57
So he kind of learned that lesson that Caleb Olson had to learn
10:00
last year,
10:00
that that Western States and CCC or Western States or any UTMB
10:05
race double can be
10:06
SPEAKER_00: really difficult,
10:07
SPEAKER_00: especially on a hot year.
10:08
So other races from Chris Myers this year include a third place
10:12
at Lake Sonoma,
10:13
SPEAKER_00: 15 miler,
10:14
SPEAKER_00: narrowly behind Stephen Kirsch and Ryan Raff by like three minutes.
10:18
SPEAKER_00: And then he had
10:19
SPEAKER_00: A win at a very sloppy Chuckanut 50K, I think.
10:22
SPEAKER_00: If there's one thing working in Chris Meyer's favor,
10:24
I think his win at Chuckanut in a pretty sloppy year makes me
10:28
more confident in his
10:29
SPEAKER_00: technical skills.
10:30
SPEAKER_00: And then early in the year,
10:32
he went third at Black Canyon 50K in a speedy field behind Eric
10:38
Lagerstrom.
10:38
SPEAKER_00: And then I want to say Jess Small, but I'm not 100% on that.
10:45
SPEAKER_00: It might have been somebody else in the first place.
10:47
SPEAKER_00: Um, so that has been his year so far.
10:49
SPEAKER_00: Uh, the only hesitation, I think Chris is extremely skilled racer.
10:53
SPEAKER_00: I think he should be fully recovered, uh, from his DNF at, at, uh, CCC.
10:59
SPEAKER_00: He's had, you know, two months to recover from that.
11:01
SPEAKER_00: So I think he's probably been able to put in a good block of training.
11:04
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
11:04
SPEAKER_00: and then for,
11:07
SPEAKER_00: yeah,
11:07
from what I can tell his win at Chuck and his fourth place at
11:09
broken air in 2022
11:11
SPEAKER_00: appear to be his most technical races.
11:13
SPEAKER_00: So that's really the only hesitation I have in picking him for this one.
11:15
SPEAKER_00: I do think he's one of the most talented runners in the field,
11:17
SPEAKER_00: but I think between him and Jeff McGavro probably being the big dogs,
11:21
SPEAKER_00: I think I lean towards Jeff McGavro just due to his recent results at,
11:27
SPEAKER_00: did I say BC?
11:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, American, I don't know, BA 100K, okay.
11:35
SPEAKER_00: But excuse me, with Broken Arrow.
11:38
SPEAKER_00: So Jeff McGavro's experience, Broken Arrow and good results there.
11:41
SPEAKER_00: And then just more experience with longer and international races.
11:44
SPEAKER_00: That's just my 50 cents.
11:46
I think I lean towards Jeff being the top American,
11:48
but that's just my input.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: Next athlete I want to talk about is Slovakia's very own Peter Frano,
11:55
SPEAKER_00: Slovakian athlete for Scarpa.
11:57
I think that if you are not considering this guy strongly for
12:02
your trail run of the
12:03
SPEAKER_00: year top 10 watch,
12:04
SPEAKER_00: you really should be and you need to put them on watch.
12:07
SPEAKER_00: If he wins this race,
12:08
SPEAKER_00: I think he's got to be strongly,
12:10
SPEAKER_00: strongly considered and has to really be a contender for a spot.
12:14
SPEAKER_00: I think he will get shafted because I think the races he raced well at,
12:17
SPEAKER_00: um,
12:18
SPEAKER_00: don't really get the attention from the Western audience,
12:20
but this is my PSA to you that you really need to consider
12:24
putting Peter Frano on
12:25
SPEAKER_00: your trail run of the year top 10 list.
12:27
Um,
12:27
because if you're not considering him,
12:29
you really freaking should be,
12:30
um,
12:32
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
12:32
SPEAKER_00: So why do I think he's a strong contender for trail runner year top 10?
12:36
SPEAKER_00: So if he wins here at UTCT, this is what his year would look like.
12:41
SPEAKER_00: And I think it'd make him tough to pick against.
12:43
SPEAKER_00: So this year's results start off the year,
12:45
Wayne at Transvolcania and heinous weather against a very good
12:48
field that looks
12:49
SPEAKER_00: weaker than it,
12:50
SPEAKER_00: than it was from all the drops.
12:52
And in a historically very fast time,
12:53
I think he was top three or top five time of all time.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: So Transvolcania win to start off the year.
12:58
SPEAKER_00: Ninth at Western States debut.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: And in my opinion, a very disadvantaged position.
13:03
SPEAKER_00: I think if you come to Western States and you have a huge team support,
13:07
SPEAKER_00: like the Tareks team,
13:08
SPEAKER_00: like the Hoka team,
13:10
SPEAKER_00: maybe even like the Solomon runners to an extent,
13:12
SPEAKER_00: or if you're a CTS athlete,
13:13
SPEAKER_00: or if you're an American,
13:14
SPEAKER_00: I think him being Slovakian and also being sponsored by Scarpa,
13:17
which has essentially little to no presence at Western States
13:20
endurance run
13:21
SPEAKER_00: whatsoever.
13:22
SPEAKER_00: I think recently he picked up a precision fuel and hydration sponsorship,
13:25
SPEAKER_00: but I don't know that he had it at Western States.
13:27
But I think him being sponsored by Scarpa and being Slovakian
13:31
and coming over to
13:31
SPEAKER_00: the United States,
13:32
SPEAKER_00: it's really impressive that he did that well on his first Western States,
13:36
SPEAKER_00: in my opinion,
13:37
SPEAKER_00: in a very disadvantaged position.
13:38
SPEAKER_00: So ninth place at Western States in his debut.
13:40
SPEAKER_00: I think he'll come back next year and run a lot faster.
13:43
He ran the race very conservatively and intelligently and
13:46
didn't get scooped up in
13:48
SPEAKER_00: some of the speedy starts.
13:51
SPEAKER_00: So ninth at Western after his Trans-Valcane win.
13:54
SPEAKER_00: He had fifth at the world's long trail,
13:57
SPEAKER_00: uh,
13:58
championship and was arguably one of the most competitive
14:01
ultras of the year,
14:02
SPEAKER_00: uh,
14:03
SPEAKER_00: in a very,
14:03
SPEAKER_00: very stacked field.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: So fifth place there, super consistent.
14:06
SPEAKER_00: And then he had a win at Grampian peaks, 50 K not as competitive.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: He did win over Dan Jones,
14:11
SPEAKER_00: which does look very impressive,
14:13
but I'm going to add that with the caveat that Dan Jones was
14:16
stage racing and had
14:16
SPEAKER_00: multiple 50 Ks throughout that week.
14:18
Um,
14:18
that was his first one to start,
14:20
but I think also Dan Jones is probably conserving,
14:23
um,
14:23
SPEAKER_00: conserving energy because he knew he had to run a lot elsewhere.
14:27
So I think add in a win at UTCT against a deep field and in a
14:34
historically fast time.
14:35
SPEAKER_00: And I think voila,
14:37
it's hard to argue against him for a draw on the year top 10
14:39
spot book and marking
14:40
SPEAKER_00: his season with a win at Transvoltaña and a win at UTCT,
14:43
SPEAKER_00: both of them in historically fast times or faster times.
14:46
SPEAKER_00: So I'm rooting for Peter.
14:47
On another side note,
14:50
Slovakian Tatra mountains are beautiful and everyone should go
14:53
visit them.
14:54
SPEAKER_00: So that is the end of my rant slash PSA.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: But I think Peter Frano, you really need to consider him.
14:59
SPEAKER_00: I'm super bullish on this kid.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: I say kid.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: He's only probably two years younger than me.
15:04
SPEAKER_00: I think he's 27, 28.
15:05
SPEAKER_00: But he is the real deal.
15:07
SPEAKER_00: So cheer for him.
15:08
SPEAKER_00: Root for him.
15:09
It's cool to support guys like that that don't have the support
15:11
of maybe French or U.S.
15:13
SPEAKER_00: athletes just because of the country that they're from.
15:15
SPEAKER_00: So all aboard, Team Peter.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: Next athlete we're going to talk about is Jeff McGavro, the on-header.
15:20
athlete coming out of missoula montana coming off the fastest
15:24
western states uh
15:26
debut in history this year with a fourth place finish in 1430
15:30
to best caleb olsen's
15:32
fastest ever debut last year in 1440 so it took about 10
15:35
minutes after off of that
15:36
fastest finish ever he battled with killian for like 50 miles
15:40
or more i want to say
15:41
before he finally pulled away from before killing finally
15:45
pulled away from jeff
15:45
SPEAKER_00: late in the race
15:46
So Jeff really knocked out of the park with his Western debut
15:49
after having paced
15:51
SPEAKER_00: Adam Peterman and Jeff Colt,
15:52
SPEAKER_00: I want to say.
15:52
So he had some very good experience pacing and seeing what it
15:56
takes to do well at
15:57
SPEAKER_00: that race with two top 10 finishes with his buddies,
15:59
SPEAKER_00: including a win with Adam.
16:01
And then Jeff McAvro also learned the hard way what a Western
16:06
and UTMB race double
16:08
SPEAKER_00: looks like and fell to the same fate as Chris Myers.
16:11
SPEAKER_00: So they're in the same boat.
16:13
SPEAKER_00: Um,
16:13
SPEAKER_00: Jeff lined up for UTMB,
16:15
SPEAKER_00: the full loop around UTMB,
16:16
SPEAKER_00: not just CCC,
16:17
SPEAKER_00: um,
16:17
SPEAKER_00: but suffered a similar,
16:19
SPEAKER_00: similar fate with a DNF due to the heinous weather.
16:21
SPEAKER_00: I think he dropped about halfway or he might even got to 130 K actually.
16:26
SPEAKER_00: Um,
16:27
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
16:27
SPEAKER_00: he wrote about in a Substack post,
16:29
SPEAKER_00: um,
16:29
SPEAKER_00: and has since around the rut 28 K to a fourth place,
16:31
SPEAKER_00: uh,
16:32
SPEAKER_00: September 13th.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: So about two months ago,
16:35
SPEAKER_00: other races this year include a fourth place at the canyons,
16:38
SPEAKER_00: 100 K and,
16:40
SPEAKER_00: uh,
16:40
SPEAKER_00: in the spring and April.
16:41
And that was a race that he trained through and didn't need to
16:43
take it at.
16:44
So he basically just used it as a big training stimulus,
16:46
um,
16:46
to get fourth place.
16:48
And then he also has more international race experience and
16:52
long race experience.
16:53
SPEAKER_00: uh, then guys like Chris.
16:55
SPEAKER_00: And, uh, and I think that's going to favor him in my opinion.
16:57
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
16:58
SPEAKER_00: he has raced at,
16:59
SPEAKER_00: uh,
16:59
Medeer Island ultra trail last year to a fifth place and trans
17:02
Volconia and 2023 to
17:04
SPEAKER_00: a seventh place.
17:05
I think he's my favorite American to finish the highest as in
17:08
the top American in this race.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that means the wind though.
17:12
Like I said,
17:12
I don't think there's any clear cut favorites and I'll talk
17:14
about my,
17:15
in my picks.
17:16
SPEAKER_00: Um,
17:16
but I think that he is probably my favorite for top American
17:19
doesn't necessarily
17:20
SPEAKER_00: mean to win the race.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: Next person to talk about is Dimitri Mityev.
17:26
If this was any other year,
17:27
but this year,
17:27
including last year,
17:28
he'd be my favorite at UTCT.
17:32
SPEAKER_00: He knows the course super well.
17:33
SPEAKER_00: He is a two-time winner in 2022 and 2023,
17:37
one of which was in the 2022 race where he had one of his two
17:41
hand-holding finish
17:42
SPEAKER_00: ties,
17:44
in which case he tied with Hannes Nenberger for a first-place
17:47
finish in the 2022
17:48
SPEAKER_00: race in around 10.45.
17:50
SPEAKER_00: And I think his other one was around 1043.
17:52
SPEAKER_00: So he knows this course super well.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: He knows about the time it takes to win it.
17:56
SPEAKER_00: And he knows where he wants to make moves on the course.
18:00
SPEAKER_00: He has not been in good health this year.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: I follow him on Instagram.
18:04
SPEAKER_00: He does a really good job of posting his posts on both like Cyrillic,
18:08
SPEAKER_00: like Russian,
18:09
SPEAKER_00: but then also in translating them to English,
18:13
SPEAKER_00: excuse me,
18:15
SPEAKER_00: without even having to use like the Instagram translate feature.
18:19
SPEAKER_00: So
18:20
SPEAKER_00: Um,
18:21
SPEAKER_00: he is good about translating,
18:23
SPEAKER_00: but he,
18:23
it hasn't been clear that he's figured out what's the issue
18:26
with his health.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: He has a lot of DNFs this year,
18:29
SPEAKER_00: including UTMB,
18:30
SPEAKER_00: which he did DNF last year to be fair,
18:32
SPEAKER_00: but he DNF'd at Montblanc 90K.
18:36
SPEAKER_00: He DNF'd at Tenerife 110K and then,
18:40
SPEAKER_00: uh,
18:41
SPEAKER_00: dating back to last year,
18:42
SPEAKER_00: UTCT and,
18:44
SPEAKER_00: uh,
18:45
SPEAKER_00: UTMB as well,
18:46
SPEAKER_00: which UTMB,
18:46
SPEAKER_00: he's just never quite been able to figure out.
18:48
SPEAKER_00: So that's my big question with Dima.
18:51
SPEAKER_00: He really hasn't finished,
18:54
SPEAKER_00: but let's see,
18:56
SPEAKER_00: this year he's only finished Maxi Race 60K,
18:59
SPEAKER_00: which he got 10th place at,
19:02
SPEAKER_00: and that is it.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: So one, two, three, four DNFs out of his five races this year.
19:10
SPEAKER_00: So that leaves me hesitant to pick him.
19:12
SPEAKER_00: I definitely think he has the possibility to win.
19:14
SPEAKER_00: But I just think he's been so up and down,
19:16
SPEAKER_00: and I don't know that he's figured out his health issues.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: So that makes me hesitant to pick him this year.
19:20
SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, he would be a favorite any other year.
19:23
SPEAKER_00: Next runner is Ecuador's very own Joaquin Lopez,
19:27
SPEAKER_00: runner for Calis Fuga,
19:29
the Chinese footwear and outdoor company that's up and coming
19:33
in the scene.
19:36
SPEAKER_00: Joaquin's a big spokesperson for Latin American trail running.
19:38
SPEAKER_00: He got interviewed with Dylan Bowman on the Free Trail podcast.
19:41
And he's really helped up the scene there since his breakout
19:45
performance with his
19:46
SPEAKER_00: third place at UTMB last year.
19:48
My understanding,
19:49
he lives in Barcelona,
19:50
but I think he's moving back to Ecuador here soon.
19:53
um he has had a very very good year starting with his season at
19:58
uh the tenor reef
20:00
73k where he got fourth place which doesn't sound that great
20:03
and most people don't
20:04
really know that race it's a bayou team b race but he did
20:07
finish behind on j v tech
20:09
who we saw go third at ccc or excuse me occ this year and also
20:12
finished top 10 at
20:13
SPEAKER_00: worlds uh and miguel harras who's a
20:17
um and then he followed that up with a win and a course record
20:20
at the mount fuji
20:21
100 miler and 1748 he finished over an hour in front of second
20:25
place um and i think
20:27
yeah and i think that was a course record by a really really
20:29
good margin that's
20:29
probably his best run of date if i had to guess along with his
20:32
third place utmb and
20:33
then he won at keto trail 80k and a 30 second at occ followed
20:37
by a 13th place at
20:39
SPEAKER_00: worlds long trail
20:40
SPEAKER_00: which doesn't sound that great,
20:42
but world's long trail was probably the densest race that the
20:45
world's long trail
20:46
SPEAKER_00: has ever had.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: So I'm curious to see how he does here.
20:50
SPEAKER_00: I think ceiling for Joaquin Lopez,
20:52
SPEAKER_00: best case scenario is probably a fourth through seventh place finish,
20:55
but I have hesitations against going higher just due to his
20:58
lack of kind of like
21:00
SPEAKER_00: speed compared to this field.
21:01
SPEAKER_00: I do think he's one of the tougher runners though.
21:03
SPEAKER_00: So that favors him.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: He's very unlikely to do enough.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: And if you guys know about fantasy fruit trail,
21:08
basically you pick for one through five and anyone that
21:09
finishes in the top 10,
21:10
SPEAKER_00: you get points for,
21:11
I think he's somebody who will definitely get people points if
21:15
you pick him.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: So,
21:16
I would not hesitate to pick him in the expectation of him
21:19
finishing and him
21:20
finishing somewhere in the top 10 because I think it is very
21:22
unlikely that he DNFs
21:24
SPEAKER_00: this race.
21:24
SPEAKER_00: So that's Joaquin Lopez.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: Next on the list is Adam Loomis.
21:28
I think that Adam Loomis might be the most slept on American in
21:30
the field,
21:31
SPEAKER_00: and I think he has the potential to have the best day.
21:33
SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't be surprised if Adam Loomis is the second American.
21:36
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I'd go as far as top American.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: It would be really impressive if he did beat Jeff McAvro to me,
21:42
SPEAKER_00: but he could potentially even go top American.
21:44
SPEAKER_00: Um, but I think I'm as my second one.
21:46
He is a schema athlete and a runner for Dina fit,
21:50
uh,
21:50
from park city,
21:51
Utah.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: Um, really got sky running and technical type races so far this year.
21:55
SPEAKER_00: He's run to a third place at court 50 K fourth place at speed goat 50 K.
21:59
SPEAKER_00: He was only five minutes off of first place,
22:01
SPEAKER_00: Ryan Becker and a very tight one through five,
22:04
SPEAKER_00: uh,
22:04
SPEAKER_00: one first through fifth place separated by only seven minutes.
22:07
So,
22:07
I mean,
22:08
he was really,
22:08
really in the mix,
22:09
even though he got fourth place.
22:10
And then he had a win at the Route 50K in September to go with
22:13
wins at Telluride
22:15
SPEAKER_00: Mountain Run 40 miler and the Twisted Fork 60 AK.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: He's also gotten second at Run Rabbit Run 100 miler last year,
22:21
SPEAKER_00: along with top five at technical sky races like Meet the Minotaur.
22:25
SPEAKER_00: I definitely think he's on sleeper alert and people should be
22:28
SPEAKER_00: keeping an eye out for him.
22:29
SPEAKER_00: I think people in the U S have a good idea of who he is.
22:31
If you're a guy,
22:31
if you're a trail fan,
22:32
especially in the kind of mountain trail running scene.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: Um, I first came across him when I raced speed goat, uh, in 2022.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: And I think he got eighth place.
22:39
SPEAKER_00: I want to say.
22:40
Um,
22:41
but anyways,
22:41
uh,
22:42
I think the international contingency doesn't know him quite as
22:45
well.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: Cause he hasn't really raced on the big international stage yet,
22:48
SPEAKER_00: but I think he should definitely be on alert.
22:50
I think he's an American that could fall in the footsteps of
22:53
other Americans here.
22:53
SPEAKER_00: Like Drew Holman, like, uh, Anthony Costales, like Caleb Olson and could,
22:58
pick up a top three spot uh given his background uh and really
23:01
good abilities and
23:03
technical courses like i said i don't see him winning i do
23:07
think top five is very
23:08
likely in my opinion potentially as high as top three um but i
23:11
don't necessarily
23:11
see him winning here that'd take a really good day um but i do
23:15
see him having like
23:16
i said a good day and beating one of the two americans who went
23:19
top four western
23:19
states so chris myers is my bet for who he'll beat i don't
23:22
think jeff mcgavro
23:24
SPEAKER_00: So Adam Loomis, keep an eye out for him.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: Have him in your picks.
23:27
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't DNF races, doesn't miss, and does really good in technical stuff.
23:31
SPEAKER_00: Definitely should put him somewhere in your top five.
23:33
SPEAKER_00: Where you put him is up to you.
23:34
SPEAKER_00: I think I'll have him as high as third, potentially.
23:37
SPEAKER_00: Next runner is German athlete for Tarek's Marcel Hoke.
23:41
He had a DNF here last year,
23:42
but he recently raced at Cape Town Trail Marathon to a third
23:45
place.
23:46
And I imagine he's looking to get revenge and take what he
23:48
learned from last year and apply it.
23:50
He did come out with the lead pack and then fell off by the end
23:53
of the race.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: I think UT.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: Iron Farr mentioned him.
23:58
SPEAKER_00: German duo.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
24:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he was in the field, but then just dropped at some point.
24:13
SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mentioned him and talked about where he dropped.
24:18
SPEAKER_00: So Marcel Hoke, other things about him.
24:22
Yeah,
24:22
he's had a really consistent year and has had some really good
24:24
results.
24:25
SPEAKER_00: I think I could see him in the 5-8 range.
24:27
SPEAKER_00: Maybe his 5-4, but I think 5-8.
24:29
I think he's a safe bet for finishing the race in the top 10
24:32
and would be a good
24:33
SPEAKER_00: pick for points.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: He's got lots of good results at decent races.
24:36
SPEAKER_00: 6th at Hong Kong, 100k to start the year.
24:38
SPEAKER_00: 5th at Terrowair, 100k in a really deep field.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: 2nd at Mount Fuji, 70k.
24:42
And then he won Pete's Alpine Glacier Marathon and Tarek's
24:45
Infinite Trails Marathon
24:47
SPEAKER_00: before racing Cape Town Marathon in October.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: He seems in a good spot to race well here.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: He's been really consistent.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: And I think he's a really strong pick for top five.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: I do think he will finish this year, despite not finishing last year.
24:58
I think he probably took a lot of learnings and also raced in
25:01
Cape Town in October.
25:02
So he's been probably hanging out on location for at least a
25:05
month at this point.
25:07
SPEAKER_00: Other runners,
25:07
SPEAKER_00: Grant Barnett,
25:08
SPEAKER_00: Schemo guy,
25:09
SPEAKER_00: also from the SLC area like Adam Loomis,
25:11
SPEAKER_00: also used to be a Dina Fit athlete like Adam Loomis.
25:13
Now he's a runner for Kraft who does well in mountain or ultras
25:16
with lots of vert.
25:17
SPEAKER_00: He's had good results at races like Spigo and Broken Arrow.
25:19
Top fives at Spigo each of the last two years and was only
25:22
seven minutes off of
25:22
SPEAKER_00: first place Ryan Becker this year.
25:24
He mixed in with some DNFs at Canyons 100k earlier this year
25:28
and UTMB last year.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: He's raced to a fifth place at Broken Arrow 46k in the 2023.
25:33
He's kind of had a mixed bag this year and I think he has the
25:35
chops to go top five
25:36
but I'm honestly hesitant to pick him because he's had
25:38
nutrition as he's in the
25:39
SPEAKER_00: past.
25:40
that have led him to his dns and i'm not sure if they're
25:42
totally figured out or if
25:44
consistency has been solved uh or that he's been the most
25:48
consistent on the biggest
25:49
race stages like um like your utmb and other races next
25:55
american athlete sleeper
25:57
alert low-key crusher and random baller who most uh mostly
26:01
dominates east coast
26:02
races is going to be ben quatrimoni i think he's out of newport
26:05
rhode island if i'm
26:06
SPEAKER_00: not mistaken
26:07
SPEAKER_00: But an East Coast guy who mostly races East Coast races,
26:10
but has won like all the big races in the East Coast from 100
26:14
miles to 50 Ks.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
26:17
SPEAKER_00: Let's go down the list.
26:18
SPEAKER_00: Heiner, 50 K in Pennsylvania.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: Cruel Drew, 100 miler in Georgia.
26:21
SPEAKER_00: Jager Johnson, 50 miler this year.
26:23
SPEAKER_00: Or excuse me.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, this year in New Hampshire.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: Kilkenny Ridge, 50 miler.
26:28
SPEAKER_00: Eastern States, 100.
26:30
SPEAKER_00: He's also mixed it up in Black Canyon, 100 K in 2023.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: He got 14th.
26:35
SPEAKER_00: and this year he raced to third place at the Canons at 100-miler.
26:37
SPEAKER_00: He was behind Ferdinand Arou and Tommy Sullivan,
26:40
SPEAKER_00: which I imagine will punch his ticket to UTMB next year.
26:43
SPEAKER_00: He has the range to do well in both faster and more technical stuff.
26:47
I'm excited to see how he stacks up against big American names
26:50
and other big
26:50
SPEAKER_00: international runners.
26:52
SPEAKER_00: I think I could see him going top 10 here,
26:53
SPEAKER_00: maybe even top 7,
26:54
and impress some people who are unfamiliar with him being a
26:57
low-key crusher.
26:59
SPEAKER_00: But I think it's very likely he finishes,
27:00
and I think it's very likely he gets points maybe in the back
27:03
half of the top 10,
27:04
SPEAKER_00: 8,
27:04
SPEAKER_00: 9,
27:04
10 area.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: A couple more names to listen.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: Mark Bernadez, Spanish runner, 27th at OCC this year.
27:11
He's got seventh at Tenerife 73K in that same field that had
27:15
Joaquin Lopez.
27:17
SPEAKER_00: He was only two minutes back from Joaquin Lopez, who was in fourth.
27:19
So it was a pretty tight four through seven,
27:21
just separated by a few minutes.
27:24
SPEAKER_00: Mark Bernadez has back-to-back top fives at Ultra Pyrenean 100K,
27:27
SPEAKER_00: which is a competitive and technical race in the Pyrenees in Spain.
27:31
SPEAKER_00: as well as the win at the Can Frank Marathon in 2023,
27:34
SPEAKER_00: which I think was the same course as World Short Trail or pretty similar.
27:37
I think that Mark's good results in the Pyrenees races
27:41
translate well to the
27:42
SPEAKER_00: technicality level that I hear that UTCT has.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: So I think he could also be in that five through 10 range.
27:49
I don't know if I see him in the top five,
27:50
but I think it's likely that he finishes.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: He doesn't appear to be enough a lot,
27:53
SPEAKER_00: and he has good races at competitive fields like Ultra Pyrenees,
27:57
SPEAKER_00: which is always competitive amongst some pretty good Spanish athletes.
28:00
SPEAKER_00: The last two runners to mention,
28:02
SPEAKER_00: Arlen Glick,
28:02
SPEAKER_00: Mennonite runner from Ohio,
28:03
SPEAKER_00: who specializes in the 100 mile distances,
28:06
SPEAKER_00: has not raced,
28:07
SPEAKER_00: or excuse me,
28:08
SPEAKER_00: I thought he had not raced since Cocodona 250,
28:11
SPEAKER_00: but he did just recently race Run Rabbit Run and got 25th place.
28:16
SPEAKER_00: According to Finn Melanson on his single track podcast,
28:20
I think he had a really big reconstructive knee surgery of some
28:23
sort that took a
28:24
SPEAKER_00: ton of recovery time.
28:25
SPEAKER_00: Um, he's definitely a gritty and super tough racer.
28:27
SPEAKER_00: I'm curious to see how he bounces back from that knee injury.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: I don't know that I have them in my top five or top 10 at this point,
28:34
SPEAKER_00: but I think in a former world,
28:36
SPEAKER_00: Arlen could do really well.
28:37
SPEAKER_00: He's a very tough runner.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: And I think the tougher the courses, um, the tougher he gets.
28:42
SPEAKER_00: So,
28:42
SPEAKER_00: That's Arlen Glick.
28:43
Last one's Matthew Healy,
28:44
South African outrunner,
28:45
who's run to sixth place at UTCT in 2022.
28:48
He finished at fifth place at Tenerife,
28:52
110K this year,
28:52
and third at Teraware,
28:54
100K in 2024.
28:55
I think he could be someone to back out of the top 10 and was
28:57
worth mentioning.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: So that is the conclusion of the men's field.
29:00
This is the part where I give you my top five picks with the
29:04
contingency that I'm
29:05
SPEAKER_00: willing and liable to change them at any given time,
29:07
SPEAKER_00: given updated information,
29:09
SPEAKER_00: and just because,
29:10
SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
29:10
SPEAKER_00: I was changing them up to the last minute,
29:11
SPEAKER_00: So I'll give you who I tend to, they have my top five right now.
29:14
And also give you some options for people that you could
29:16
substitute fifth place.
29:18
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to go Joaquin Lopez.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: I was on the bubble between him and Marcel Hoche.
29:23
SPEAKER_00: Um,
29:24
And I might swap back to Marcel Hoche,
29:26
but I think Joaquin will definitely finish the race.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: I think he'll definitely finish in the top 10.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: I just don't know that I see him higher than maybe fifth, sixth, seventh.
29:32
And I think Marcel has a little bit better speed,
29:35
has run the course here.
29:36
SPEAKER_00: He didn't finish it,
29:37
but he has been in the area if he's raced Cape Town Marathon
29:40
just a month ago.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: So I think I might be leaning a little bit more Marcel,
29:44
SPEAKER_00: but right now I'm gonna have Joaquin Lopez.
29:46
SPEAKER_00: And I figured he's just a tough runner.
29:49
SPEAKER_00: He's had a good year.
29:49
SPEAKER_00: I don't see any reason why he can't do well here.
29:52
SPEAKER_00: So fifth place Joaquin Lopez...
29:54
fourth place i'm gonna go chris myers uh i think he has the
29:57
talent to win this race
29:58
and to run well but i just have hesitations with his lack of
30:02
one international
30:03
racing and two uh long tough races because i think this is
30:08
different both in
30:09
western states i think chris is very speedy i think he is good
30:12
on technical stuff
30:13
but i think the combination of technical and distance we
30:16
haven't seen him do yet so
30:17
SPEAKER_00: i'm a
30:19
SPEAKER_00: Fourth, I'm going to go Chris Myers.
30:20
So third place,
30:21
I'm going to go Adam Loomis for all the reasons mentioned
30:23
earlier.
30:24
SPEAKER_00: I think he's probably the most slept on and will do super well here.
30:28
SPEAKER_00: He raced super consistently.
30:29
SPEAKER_00: He doesn't DNF.
30:30
SPEAKER_00: He does get in technical races and the longer and tougher it gets,
30:33
SPEAKER_00: the better he kind of grinds it out.
30:35
Second place,
30:35
I'm going to go Jeff McGaviro for all the reasons talked about
30:39
earlier.
30:40
SPEAKER_00: First place, Peter Frano making his bid for
30:43
SPEAKER_00: Draw one of the year,
30:44
SPEAKER_00: top 10,
30:46
SPEAKER_00: bookending his year with a win at UTCT,
30:50
SPEAKER_00: following his opening on the year with a win at Transvaulconia.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: I like Peter Frano.
30:53
SPEAKER_00: I think he's going to race well.
30:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm still hesitant.
30:56
SPEAKER_00: I think Peter's really good,
30:57
SPEAKER_00: but he doesn't win a lot of big races,
30:59
SPEAKER_00: I guess,
30:59
SPEAKER_00: other than Transvaulconia.
31:00
So I'm hesitant to pick him,
31:02
but I also think that most of these guys in the field don't win
31:05
SPEAKER_00: the biggest races or don't have a ton of wins.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: They're usually just really good in competitive fields.
31:09
SPEAKER_00: So I don't think there's a clear cut favorite.
31:11
SPEAKER_00: If D Dimitri Matyev was healthy,
31:12
SPEAKER_00: I think he'd be more of a clear cut favorite,
31:14
SPEAKER_00: but I'm going to go Peter Frano.
31:15
SPEAKER_00: So,
31:16
SPEAKER_00: One through five,
31:17
SPEAKER_00: Peter Frano first,
31:18
SPEAKER_00: second,
31:18
SPEAKER_00: Jeff McAvro,
31:19
SPEAKER_00: third,
31:19
SPEAKER_00: Adam Loomis,
31:20
SPEAKER_00: fourth,
31:20
SPEAKER_00: Chris Myers,
31:21
SPEAKER_00: and fifth,
31:21
SPEAKER_00: Joaquin Lopez,
31:22
SPEAKER_00: with the option to substitute in Marcel Hoke,
31:25
SPEAKER_00: I think will do well.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: I think Grant Barnett could finish in the top five,
31:29
SPEAKER_00: and then I think Mark Bernadez would be a safe pick,
31:31
SPEAKER_00: who might not go top five,
31:32
SPEAKER_00: but will definitely go top 10 somewhere and get you points.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: So that is my men's field.
31:37
On the women's side of the field,
31:39
storylines,
31:40
predictions,
31:41
and dark horses.
31:43
SPEAKER_00: On the
31:44
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
31:44
SPEAKER_00: storylines,
31:44
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a decent field with more competition than last year,
31:47
SPEAKER_00: in my opinion,
31:48
but I think it's noticeably absent of some big names like
31:50
Ekaterina Metayeva or a
31:52
SPEAKER_00: big North American contender,
31:54
SPEAKER_00: which is going to get a little bit more lost in the eyes of,
31:57
SPEAKER_00: um,
31:58
SPEAKER_00: the U S or Western athletes on the women's side.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: Dark courses, I got Emily Jock, D-J-O-C-K.
32:05
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure how to pronounce that.
32:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm pretty sure it's, uh, is like Dutch or Afrikaans.
32:11
uh and then sarah humble and then predictions i think soon maya
32:15
buddha follows up
32:16
with her success at worlds and wins i think rosanna bukauer
32:19
races from probably
32:20
behind and finishes second i think two americans go top five um
32:25
probably emily jock
32:27
SPEAKER_00: and alessa clark being my top contenders in mind um
32:33
SPEAKER_00: or the most likely to go top five.
32:34
So talking about the women's field student,
32:36
Maya Buddha is going to be the first one.
32:38
New Nepalese legend and runner for Calis Fuga coming off a
32:42
stellar second place
32:43
SPEAKER_00: finish at worlds long trail behind Katie Scheid.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: And earlier this year with a win at Hong Kong 100K.
32:49
SPEAKER_00: I do think she is the favorite in my opinion,
32:51
SPEAKER_00: although Anton,
32:53
Antonina Ayushina has the course knowledge and they get second
32:57
here last year.
32:58
SPEAKER_00: But I think that,
33:00
SPEAKER_00: uh, soon Maya Buddha, we've seen her race time.
33:02
SPEAKER_00: And again,
33:03
on some of the biggest stages in the world and most competitive
33:06
races and do super
33:07
SPEAKER_00: duper well,
33:08
SPEAKER_00: you know,
33:09
SPEAKER_00: we've seen her,
33:09
SPEAKER_00: uh,
33:10
SPEAKER_00: let's see,
33:11
SPEAKER_00: CCC,
33:13
SPEAKER_00: you know,
33:13
SPEAKER_00: marathon,
33:14
SPEAKER_00: excuse me,
33:15
SPEAKER_00: Transvalconia third place.
33:17
Uh,
33:17
I'm pretty sure she's got a top three at CCC,
33:19
uh,
33:20
second place at CCC in 2022.
33:21
Um,
33:22
she's just raised on the international stage and done super
33:26
well time.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: And again, so I don't think this will be any different.
33:29
Uh,
33:29
I think she is the favorite to win and has the most racing
33:32
chops of anyone in the field.
33:34
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
33:34
SPEAKER_00: next person to talk about was going to be Rosanna Buchauer,
33:36
the German athlete for Dina fit known for racing from behind
33:40
and really good at
33:41
SPEAKER_00: climbing and just kind of the more climbs and more grindy the races,
33:44
SPEAKER_00: the better she wears down her competitors.
33:46
She's coming off the OCC world's double where she raced to 11th
33:49
place at OCC.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: And unfortunately had a DNF at world's long trail competition.
33:54
She also had a DNF at Western States this year and a second
33:57
place at Chianti 73K in March.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: Her best result is third place from CCC last year,
34:02
SPEAKER_00: in my opinion,
34:03
SPEAKER_00: along with a win at Laboreto 120K in 2024.
34:07
SPEAKER_00: She's had another top five in CCC, maybe even two other top fives in CCC.
34:13
I think Rosanna is very likely to podium here,
34:16
but her DNFs do make me a little bit hesitant.
34:18
I think she's the second strongest run in the field behind
34:20
Sunmaya and his better
34:23
SPEAKER_00: at grinding, the more grinding and technical the race gets.
34:25
SPEAKER_00: So I think it's possible that she could go as high as second place.
34:28
SPEAKER_00: I don't think I see her beating Sunmaya.
34:29
SPEAKER_00: I think Sunmaya is a really,
34:31
really talented runner and has a little bit more race intuition
34:34
and speed than
34:35
SPEAKER_00: Rosanna.
34:36
SPEAKER_00: And we just don't see Rosanna win the big ones.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: We see her like podium in the big races.
34:40
SPEAKER_00: So I think that that kind of works against her.
34:42
SPEAKER_00: Sunmaya knows how to win.
34:45
SPEAKER_00: So Antonina Ayushina, Russian athlete.
34:48
SPEAKER_00: She was last year's second place finisher behind Jasmine Louther.
34:51
This year,
34:52
she's raced to a seventh place at Valderand 50k,
34:54
which was the Euro major for 50k.
34:57
So that means she's going to have a bid into OCC next year if
35:00
she wants it.
35:00
And then she had a DNF at UTMB,
35:03
the big loop in August,
35:05
at the end of August.
35:06
SPEAKER_00: Last year,
35:06
she followed up her second place at Ultra Trail Cape Town with
35:08
a win at Chiang Mai
35:09
SPEAKER_00: 100 miler,
35:10
SPEAKER_00: only two weeks after UTCT,
35:12
SPEAKER_00: which is kind of crazy.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: I don't know much about her other than she's Russian.
35:16
SPEAKER_00: And I
35:17
had honestly not heard of her until last year's UTCT so I'm
35:21
curious to see I tried
35:21
to look up social media and I couldn't find anything on her I
35:25
can't imagine yeah I
35:26
don't know if she's still racing out of Russia maybe that kind
35:29
of limits her social
35:30
media impact her ability to use it I'm not sure on that one but
35:33
I think that she is
35:34
a strong lock for a top three and it seems like she has some
35:36
pretty gutsy and good
35:37
SPEAKER_00: racing next one to talk about is Emily Jacques or Jacques from
35:43
uh she's an american but she appears to live and race in south
35:45
africa from what i
35:46
can tell because she's sponsored by the north face south africa
35:48
according to her
35:49
utmb profile she has raced to assist fifth place here last year
35:53
and has lots of
35:54
race results in south africa races she's also raced to 25th at
35:57
ccc this year and
35:59
knows uh probably knows the course better than any other female
36:01
in this elite field
36:02
just based off the number of races she has in cape town or
36:05
south africa so i think
36:07
SPEAKER_00: she's got that home field advantage let's cook and
36:09
SPEAKER_00: I think that she'll race well here.
36:10
SPEAKER_00: Uh,
36:11
and I think she is somebody to look out for next one is going
36:14
to be Alyssa Clark,
36:15
SPEAKER_00: the U S ultra runner for on,
36:18
SPEAKER_00: and she's a coach for evoke endurance as well.
36:20
SPEAKER_00: Uh, or at least used to be, I'm not sure if she still is at this point.
36:23
SPEAKER_00: Uh, she is good at long, tough and technical races.
36:26
SPEAKER_00: but she does DNF a decent bit.
36:28
Her most recent results include a grinding finish at this
36:30
year's UTMB to like a
36:34
SPEAKER_00: 33rd place or something,
36:35
SPEAKER_00: which was,
36:36
SPEAKER_00: I didn't remember the total,
36:37
SPEAKER_00: right down the total time,
36:38
SPEAKER_00: but it was definitely one of those races kind of like Emily Hall good,
36:41
SPEAKER_00: where she just stuck it out and made sure she finished.
36:43
She did get a second place at La Verita 120K this year behind
36:47
Courtney DeWalter by
36:48
SPEAKER_00: like 30 minutes.
36:49
SPEAKER_00: And that was like a 14-ish hour race.
36:51
SPEAKER_00: And then she also had a DNF at Deserets 100K earlier this year.
36:55
SPEAKER_00: Alyssa Clark has finished 11th at UTMB last year,
36:58
SPEAKER_00: and she's also won the Canyons 100 miler in 2023.
37:01
SPEAKER_00: She has a lot of good results, but a good number of DNFs mixed in.
37:04
So I'm hesitant about the non-trivial chance of a DNF on this
37:08
tough and technical
37:09
SPEAKER_00: of a course,
37:10
SPEAKER_00: especially if it's her first time racing it.
37:12
She definitely has the potential to go top five here and is a
37:14
skilled athlete for sure.
37:17
SPEAKER_00: Next athlete is going to be Tara Fraga,
37:18
North Face athlete with a DNF at UTMB last year and wins at
37:23
Valhalla 125K in
37:24
SPEAKER_00: Argentina and second at Gorge 50K.
37:27
SPEAKER_00: And that was all last year.
37:28
This year,
37:29
the only races she had,
37:30
she had nothing on UTMB,
37:31
but only on Ultra Signup.
37:32
SPEAKER_00: She's raced to Yakima Skyline 50K to win and Tillamook Burn 50K to win.
37:37
Tough to know where she's at due to the lack of international
37:39
competition.
37:40
SPEAKER_00: She has raced in one Trans Grand Canary Advance last year to a win.
37:44
SPEAKER_00: Um, but she does DNF a decent bit of tough races.
37:47
SPEAKER_00: So,
37:48
SPEAKER_00: um,
37:49
SPEAKER_00: not sure where to place her,
37:50
SPEAKER_00: but definitely somebody to look out for has had good results,
37:53
but usually doesn't race the most competitive of versions of
37:57
the races that she
37:57
SPEAKER_00: does.
37:58
SPEAKER_00: So that's Tara Fraga.
38:00
SPEAKER_00: Um,
38:01
SPEAKER_00: last three females,
38:01
SPEAKER_00: Emily man,
38:02
Canadian ultra runner who first came across my radar with her
38:05
sixth place at broken
38:06
SPEAKER_00: era 46k last year in a very deep field.
38:09
SPEAKER_00: Um,
38:09
And then she doubled back to really impress me with a win at
38:12
Run Rabbit Run 100
38:13
miler last year in a course record time ahead of some very good
38:16
names that have run
38:17
SPEAKER_00: there.
38:17
SPEAKER_00: So Emily Mann, definitely somebody to look out for.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: Rerating that Run Rabbit Run win
38:23
course record uh along with her black her broken aero 46k sixth
38:28
place um that's two
38:30
good races to do well in uh kind of a good mix of distance and
38:35
managing the
38:35
elements along with like tough and technical um so i think that
38:39
poises her well
38:40
this year she's raced desert at 100k where she got second place
38:43
behind lotty brinks
38:44
and then she had a dnf at quebec mega trail 135 and a 10th
38:48
place at black canyon
38:48
SPEAKER_00: 100k at the beginning of the year
38:51
SPEAKER_00: She's also won Squamish 50k last year.
38:53
SPEAKER_00: I think Emily Mann's pretty well positioned.
38:54
SPEAKER_00: I think she's going to be somewhere in the top five.
38:56
I don't think it's very likely she DNFs and I like the look of
38:59
her results.
39:00
So I think Emily Mann is going to be somebody to look out for
39:02
and is worth putting
39:03
SPEAKER_00: in your top five.
39:04
SPEAKER_00: Last two names are going to be Sarah Humble.
39:07
SPEAKER_00: U.S.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: ultra runner, last name Humboldt.
39:09
SPEAKER_00: That's pretty impressive.
39:11
SPEAKER_00: She had a win at Bear 100 miler this year in a fast time historically.
39:14
SPEAKER_00: And then a second at the Swiss Canyon won 11K this year.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: Couldn't really tell how deep that field was,
39:20
SPEAKER_00: but that does seem like to be at least a very vertical course.
39:23
SPEAKER_00: I don't know the technical level.
39:25
SPEAKER_00: Could be a sleeper pick or somebody to look out for.
39:27
Not a ton of results,
39:28
but it seems like she's making progress quickly in her ultra
39:32
running.
39:33
SPEAKER_00: So she could be somebody to look out for.
39:35
SPEAKER_00: Last American female to look out for is going to be Nicole Bitter,
39:37
partner to Zach Bitter and longtime runner in the ultra scene
39:40
and right now runner
39:42
SPEAKER_00: for ultra footwear.
39:43
SPEAKER_00: She only races this year that I can see are the fat dog,
39:46
120 miler in British Columbia to fifth place and ring the
39:49
springs 100K in Colorado
39:52
SPEAKER_00: to win along with some local races in Texas with some wins.
39:55
SPEAKER_00: So that is Nicole Bitter.
39:57
SPEAKER_00: And that kind of wraps up our talking about the women's field.
40:03
Five through one with the same caveats as before I can and will
40:06
change these in the
40:07
SPEAKER_00: next three days before the picks get locked up.
40:09
And I'll also give you some potentials that I would consider
40:12
swapping in or that I
40:13
SPEAKER_00: might swap in myself.
40:15
SPEAKER_00: Five through one,
40:16
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to go fifth place,
40:17
SPEAKER_00: Emily Jock,
40:18
SPEAKER_00: the American living in South Africa,
40:20
SPEAKER_00: repeating on her fifth place from last year.
40:22
SPEAKER_00: Fourth place,
40:23
SPEAKER_00: I've got Emily Mann,
40:24
SPEAKER_00: Canadian ultra runner who,
40:26
SPEAKER_00: like I said,
40:27
SPEAKER_00: had the win in course record at Run Rabbit Run very impressively.
40:30
SPEAKER_00: And then also good results at Broken Arrow.
40:33
SPEAKER_00: Third place, Rosanna Buchauer, German athlete for Dina Fitt.
40:37
SPEAKER_00: The grindier the race gets, the better she does.
40:39
SPEAKER_00: Second place Antonina Ioshina in Russia.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: I could swap those two between each other.
40:46
I might be fixating too much on last year's second place for
40:49
Antonina and maybe I
40:50
SPEAKER_00: should pick Rosanna instead.
40:51
SPEAKER_00: But I think course knowledge is important.
40:53
SPEAKER_00: I do think that will benefit her.
40:54
SPEAKER_00: And then first place I got Sunmaya Buddha.
40:56
SPEAKER_00: So first place Sunmaya Buddha.
40:59
SPEAKER_00: second place Antonina Ayushina,
41:00
SPEAKER_00: third place Rosanna Buchauer,
41:02
SPEAKER_00: fourth Emily Mann,
41:03
SPEAKER_00: and fifth Emily Jock.
41:05
SPEAKER_00: With the potential of,
41:06
SPEAKER_00: like I said,
41:07
SPEAKER_00: swapping Antonina and Rosanna for second and third,
41:10
SPEAKER_00: I think Alyssa Clark could easily go top five here.
41:12
SPEAKER_00: It's just the DNFs that scare me away from picking her because they DNF.
41:15
SPEAKER_00: They don't get any chances at points.
41:17
And then I think that Sarah Humble honestly could be a bit of a
41:20
sleeper pick and
41:21
SPEAKER_00: could be somebody that you might want to look out for.
41:23
It seems like she's trending in the right direction and has
41:25
some good times on some
41:26
SPEAKER_00: tough courses.
41:27
So those are my picks for the men's and women's field at this
41:32
year's Ultra Trail
41:32
SPEAKER_00: Cape Town 100K.
41:34
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42:08
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42:08
SPEAKER_00: who you've got,
42:09
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42:12
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42:12
SPEAKER_00: looking out for that I'm missing out on.
42:14
SPEAKER_00: So that was another episode of Let's Talk Trail Running, guys.
42:17
SPEAKER_00: And thank you for tuning in and listening as always.
42:21
SPEAKER_00: Looking forward on the free trail calendar.
42:23
SPEAKER_00: I'm sure there'll be one or two other things before the end of the year,
42:26
SPEAKER_00: but nothing else is posted.
42:27
SPEAKER_00: So if this is at the end of the year,
42:30
have a wonderful Thanksgiving for those who celebrate and a
42:33
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42:35
SPEAKER_00: holiday season.
42:36
SPEAKER_00: And thanks for following along.