How Budget Baselines Hide Trillion-Dollar Spending Increases

The Fiscal Policy Podcast with Fexingo: Government Budgets, Stimulus, and Public Spending · Jul 27, 2026 · 7m · transcript

Every year, the Congressional Budget Office produces baseline projections that assume automatic growth in federal programs. This makes any spending cut that doesn't keep pace with inflation look like a reduction, even when it's actually an increase. In this episode, we break down the baseline game using the 2025 budget resolution as a case study: a plan that was scored as a $2 trillion cut but increased spending by $400 billion. We explain how both parties use this accounting trick to claim fiscal restraint while the debt keeps climbing, and why understanding baselines is key to…