Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Homebuilders Still Favorite Cyclical Sector Pick In 2018: Kudla

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Homebuilders Still Favorite Cyclical Sector Pick In 2018: Kudla · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Builders they were one of his favorite sector in ten
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: and he still favors the home builders. Let's find out
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: what David Coudla has in mind when he's the founder
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: and the chief executive officer and chief investment strategist for
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  Speaker 1: Mainstay Capital Management, helping to manage more than two billion
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  Speaker 1: dollars of assets. He can be followed on Twitter at
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  Speaker 1: David Underscore Kudla. That's k U d l A. All right,
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  Speaker 1: David Underscore. Let what's your thesis on home builders. Well,
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  Speaker 1: we still believe that there is the long term secular story,
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  Speaker 1: there's the cyclical story, and we're running through the event
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  Speaker 1: driven story that's driven up um some of the sales
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  Speaker 1: and home building here recently and with some of the
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  Speaker 1: suppliers home d polos that are facilitating the you know,
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  Speaker 1: the rebuild and so forth from the hurricanes. But if
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  Speaker 1: we look at where we are in the cycle and
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  Speaker 1: where we continue to set new records. You know, we
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  Speaker 1: had a tenure high in September on new home sales,
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  Speaker 1: continue to grow in October and November. We've got new
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  Speaker 1: housing starts for single family homes at an expansion high,
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  Speaker 1: existing home sales at an expansion high, the housing market
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  Speaker 1: index as an expansion high. Really, the home builders are
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  Speaker 1: firing on all eight cylinders, and we think that continues
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  Speaker 1: as we move into because we think we have a
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  Speaker 1: continuing a robust build cycle, economy that's doing well, and
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  Speaker 1: with tax reform economy that could even be doing a
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  Speaker 1: little bit better. All right. Having said that, if you've
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  Speaker 1: got an investment that has returned six a year to date,
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  Speaker 1: wouldn't you take some of that off the table and
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  Speaker 1: just wait in pim. This is you're always asking me
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  Speaker 1: this one because no one ever tells you went to sell.
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  Speaker 1: And I understand that you make your money when you
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  Speaker 1: actually buy the investment, just like you make your money
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  Speaker 1: in a house when you buy the house, although you
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  Speaker 1: don't think that way when you do sell. Mm hmm, Well,
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  Speaker 1: we see that, you know, When we look at where
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  Speaker 1: we are in the cycle, we're about just about through
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  Speaker 1: mid range the home builders, UH from peak to trough
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  Speaker 1: or maybe halfway through that expansion. And we're coming off
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  Speaker 1: a significant low from the Great Recession. So we see
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  Speaker 1: that there further to go as long as we still
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  Speaker 1: have a good economy. UH, there's pen up demand for
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  Speaker 1: new homes. We have UM the current supplies only three
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  Speaker 1: point four months of inventory, which you know it is
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  Speaker 1: still a strong seller's market. So we we want to
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  Speaker 1: continue to stay with this sector. Okay, So that if
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  Speaker 1: you're invested in the I shares construction, I believe it's
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  Speaker 1: the home construction E t F I t B. That's
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  Speaker 1: the calculation I was doing increase so far this year
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  Speaker 1: for for I t B Okay home builders that gets
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  Speaker 1: a gold start. Tell me about investment opportunities in places
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  Speaker 1: like Europe and Japan and emerging markets. Well, when we
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  Speaker 1: look at where we are in our cycle here in
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  Speaker 1: the US, UH, the economy doing what we think we'll
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  Speaker 1: do well until next year two and a half to
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  Speaker 1: three percent growth. We have very strong earnings, but we're
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  Speaker 1: at when we UH look at a a ratio that
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  Speaker 1: we use more and more in this industry. To KEPE
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  Speaker 1: ratio sickly cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio UH, we'd
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  Speaker 1: about thirty one, which is about a sixteen year high
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  Speaker 1: versus when we look at emerging markets and Europe and
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  Speaker 1: some of the other areas of the world, we're at
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  Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty, so they're more attractively priced. But even
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  Speaker 1: more importantly, we're seeing UH robust growth in those areas
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  Speaker 1: now GDP improving economic data, improving earnings improving UH and
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  Speaker 1: unemployment coming down. You know a data point that just
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  Speaker 1: came out November, US exports were up ten point three
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  Speaker 1: that's the fastest pace in six years. And what that
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  Speaker 1: speaks to is what is going on around the rest
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  Speaker 1: of the world. We talk about synchronized global growth. That's
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  Speaker 1: compared to two years ago when our exports were down
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  Speaker 1: ten percent. So that's what's happening in emerging markets, in
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  Speaker 1: these developed markets, and how well those economies are moving
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  Speaker 1: along now and what they will translate into in terms
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  Speaker 1: of opportunities in their stock markets. Is it possible that
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  Speaker 1: some of that export strength could be the result of
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  Speaker 1: an eight percent decline in the value of the US
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  Speaker 1: dollar against the g ten partners. Absolutely, absolutely, that's part
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  Speaker 1: of it. Will that continue? Uh, I think that we
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  Speaker 1: continue with some dollar weakness. We don't see the dollar
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  Speaker 1: strengthening significantly against the dollar index against the Euro. We
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  Speaker 1: think we continue with dollar weakness. Okay, dollar weakness. I
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: want to ask about one particular investment idea, the Colombia
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  Speaker 1: India small cap e t F. What is it that
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  Speaker 1: draws you to it? Uh? It is that we like
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  Speaker 1: emerging markets and that we like the opportunity of small
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  Speaker 1: cap companies in emerging markets. UH, the in India being
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  Speaker 1: one of those. And there's any specific reason. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: you know you like it. I understand that other as
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  Speaker 1: you wouldn't buy it, But I mean, is there some
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  Speaker 1: fundamental reason why this particular one or why you like
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  Speaker 1: small caps in India? That it's the transformation the economy
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  Speaker 1: what uh Prime Minister Modi has been doing there and
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  Speaker 1: transforming the economy. They're going through literally transformational change, and
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  Speaker 1: we've seen that translate into opportunity deregulation. Opportunity specifically in
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  Speaker 1: small companies is evidenced by the rise we've had in
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  Speaker 1: that e t F during our holding period. In certain
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  Speaker 1: over the past year, the arc web x point O
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  Speaker 1: e t F. It is uh, well a conglomeration of
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  Speaker 1: of tech companies. You've got Tesla, Netflix as well as
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  Speaker 1: Twitter and Bitcoin Investment Trust. Still like this. We do,
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  Speaker 1: in fact that when we look at the technology space,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: because you often hear people say they like technology across
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  Speaker 1: the board. But we've seen a peak in in chip sales,
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  Speaker 1: We've seen uh, some areas that aren't doing as well
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  Speaker 1: in technology. But when we look at e commerce in
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  Speaker 1: the Internet, that is an area where there's a second
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  Speaker 1: or growth story that continues, uh, not only domestically but abroad.
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  Speaker 1: And we think that's the real opportunity in the reason
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  Speaker 1: that we like specifically that E t F A r
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  Speaker 1: k W. Well, the shares of A r k W
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  Speaker 1: they're up nearly eighty eight percent uh this year. All right, David,
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  Speaker 1: here's your chance to fall on your sword. Was the
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  Speaker 1: one mistake you regret in investing over the last twelve months? Oh,
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  Speaker 1: that's easy. I wish I would have loaded up on
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: bitcoin twelve months ago, really, or or ethereum or light
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: coin or Ripple or the list goes on and and
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  Speaker 1: obviously that's an easy one in hindsight, but certainly there
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  Speaker 1: there was you know, in terms of an outsize gain,
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  Speaker 1: tremendous opportunity there. But um, if we bring it back
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  Speaker 1: to just the markets in general, uh, probably that we
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  Speaker 1: didn't uh significantly overweight large cap growth even more in
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  Speaker 1: terms of our portfolios from a tactical standpoint, because large
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  Speaker 1: cap growth dominated in We've got to leave it there.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks very much and happy New Year to David Kudla,
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  Speaker 1: Chief executive chief investment strategists at Mainstay Capital. A new
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  Speaker 1: question is what did you watch on Facebook last night?
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  Speaker 1: Shira Oviday is our Bloomberg Gadfly columnists. She covers technology
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  Speaker 1: and can be followed on Twitter at Shira Oviday s
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  Speaker 1: H I R A O V I D E S. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: I tried to get through all the details because it's
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  Speaker 1: kind of tough, you know when you just say it.
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  Speaker 1: But maybe Facebook is going to take care of that
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  Speaker 1: because everyone can be the star of their own TV
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  Speaker 1: show with Facebook can't take yes and no. So Mark
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  Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg, sorry, the Facebook CEO, has said for a
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  Speaker 1: few years now that he believes web video is the
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  Speaker 1: future of Facebook and the Internet in general. And you
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  Speaker 1: can see that right if you look in your Facebook feed. Now,
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  Speaker 1: odds are there'll be a lot of web videos and there,
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  Speaker 1: whether you like it or not. And so a few
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  Speaker 1: months ago Facebook um basically change strategy a little bit,
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  Speaker 1: or added a strategy to its web video initiative. It
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  Speaker 1: started this new tab that's called Watch that is basically
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  Speaker 1: trying to be more of a TV like destination where
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  Speaker 1: it has longer form videos, things that are more like
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  Speaker 1: the kinds of shows you see on cable television. And
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  Speaker 1: Facebook hopes you go there, you hang out, you chat
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  Speaker 1: with your friends about Hey, it wasn't this a really
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  Speaker 1: cool video about some surfing program. And they're trying to
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  Speaker 1: build both community and grab more of our time. All right,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: they're trying to grab more of your time. They've got
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  Speaker 1: someone who's trying to well coller you, right, is a
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  Speaker 1: Fiji Simo. Who is Fiji Semo and maybe just describe
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: what her challenges, right, So Fiji Simos profiled in our
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: sort of gadfly Year in Review pieces. She is the
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  Speaker 1: vice president of product at Facebook. She's been there about
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  Speaker 1: eight years and she's responsible for some of the most
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  Speaker 1: high profile and issues at the company. She was hired
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  Speaker 1: at first to sort of help them expand their ads
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  Speaker 1: on smartphones, which is basically the most important innovation at
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  Speaker 1: Facebook in the last decade. And now she's responsible basically
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  Speaker 1: for all video in Facebook, including this new watch tab.
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  Speaker 1: And look, it's a big bet for Facebook that they're
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  Speaker 1: trying to become a little bit more like TV, get
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  Speaker 1: more of our attention, get more of advertisers money, And
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  Speaker 1: it's not going to be an easy thing to do.
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  Speaker 1: And she's kind of at the center of all this.
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  Speaker 1: But Facebook has tried this previously, right, with a different strategy. Right. So,
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  Speaker 1: if you listened to people like Mark Zuckerberg last year,
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  Speaker 1: the only thing they talked about was live video that
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  Speaker 1: they wanted people like you and me, pim uh, celebrities
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  Speaker 1: like the chef Gordon Ramsey, news organizations like CNN. They
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  Speaker 1: wanted everybody to broadcast videos live on Facebook. The famous
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: example being there was a you know this mom, but
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Chewbacca mom she was called, who put on this kind
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: of toy Facebook sorry toy Chewbacca Star Wars mask and
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  Speaker 1: basically posted a video of herself live, cackling hysterically as
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  Speaker 1: she wore this ridiculous mask, and it was this viral hit.
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  Speaker 1: And those were the kinds of things that Facebook couldn't
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  Speaker 1: shut up about last year, and this year nobody talks
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  Speaker 1: about live really. I mean I'm exaggerating slightly, but it
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  Speaker 1: does seem like, I don't know it can control it. Well.
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  Speaker 1: I think that is part of the issue. So in
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: addition to things like Chewbacca Mom making the headlines last
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  Speaker 1: year for Facebook live video, the other things were people
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  Speaker 1: broadcasting live videos of violent acts, including this guy in
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  Speaker 1: Cleveland who murdered people and basically broadcast live his confession
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  Speaker 1: on Facebook. And these were the kinds of things that
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  Speaker 1: alarmed people, certainly outside of Facebook, that you've created this
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  Speaker 1: live video platform that gives people an incentive to broadcast
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  Speaker 1: the worst of humanity and get attention for it. Um
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  Speaker 1: And maybe they found that they couldn't control something like
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  Speaker 1: live video. Based on your reporting and speaking with your sources,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: do you believe that Facebook understands the responsibility that they
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: would take on if indeed they could be held libel
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  Speaker 1: for these kinds of things being broadcast on their net
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  Speaker 1: are I think there has been a slow awakening inside
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  Speaker 1: of Facebook the last year or so, just understanding how
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  Speaker 1: powerful their platform is to shape what people think, what
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  Speaker 1: people read or don't read, the views that get sent
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  Speaker 1: out into the world. Um, I think Facebook initially didn't
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  Speaker 1: understand the ramifications of what they were doing and maybe
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: didn't think about the potential downsides of things like Facebook
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  Speaker 1: Live in advance. And I think that's starting to change
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  Speaker 1: slowly and reluctantly. But there's also no easy solution for Facebook.
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  Speaker 1: What does it do? Does it ban certain kinds of posts?
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  Speaker 1: I don't know that we want Facebook being a sensor either,
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  Speaker 1: So they're really in a tough spot. But yes, they
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  Speaker 1: are recognizing that they have responsibility for this powerful platform
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  Speaker 1: that they created. Yeah, you're not allowed to shout fire
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  Speaker 1: in a crowded theater, right, I mean, there's got to
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: be some kind of incentive or some kind of punishment
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  Speaker 1: if you do those kinds. And look right now, Facebook,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: and and this goes for Google and others too. They're
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: mostly self policing. They're creating the rules of the road
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: on their own Internet services. And the question is and
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: changing them and when they want changing them at whim,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: when it feels like it needs when they feel like
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: they need to absolutely, And the question is, will regulators
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: in the US or Brussels or other countries around the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: world start to demand um start to basically impose more
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: order from the top on these companies, and they certainly
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: don't want that to happen. I would say, also, never
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: mind governments, what about advertisers, because isn't that really the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: only way that Facebook makes money is selling ads. Y
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: of Facebook's revenue sorry, comes from advertisements. So it is
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: definitely true that advertisers collectively are a powerful voice on Facebook.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: And you've seen them both on Facebook and places YouTube
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  Speaker 1: basically revolt when it's become clear that those platforms have
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: made bad decisions that you know, put their commercials next
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: to terrorist videos and things like that. Um And and
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  Speaker 1: that does spur change at these companies because it affects
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: them in their wallet. Yeah, well that would that would
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: certainly get their attention. And Facebook has also run up
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: against these kinds of issues when it comes to politicians
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: political campaigns. They even send out people to teach those
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: political operatives how to best use this platform to their
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: own game. Yeah. And I think our colleagues at Bloomberg
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: News have written some great stories in the last few
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: months about Facebook's role in helping political campaigns, including in
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: places like the Philippines, UM where maybe we don't want
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the government of the Philippines being smart about how to
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: use Facebook to manipulate the electorate or to harass critics
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: of the administration. Right, So, look, all these tech company
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: is Twitter, Google, Facebook, They do help political campaigns and
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: political leaders, um, understand how best to use their platforms,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and that goes for journalists to write. Facebook has a
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: large organization that helps journalists figure out how to disseminate
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: their stories on Facebook and other places. Um. But yeah,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: there's a big difference between helping journalists circulates stories and
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: helping candidates figure out how to tailor their messages and
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: helping dictators in places like the Philippines. Indeed, thanks very much,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Shira over Day, Thank you very much our Bloomberg Gadfly
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: calumnist all things Technology. You can follow Shira on Twitter
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: at Shira over Day and Happy New Year too. Always
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: a pleasure. Small business is in the United States. They
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: make up nearly ninety nine percent of US employer firms
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: of net new private sector jobs nearly fifty percent of
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: private sector employment. However you look at it, small business
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: is important and crucial to the health of the U
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: S economy. Karen Mills is a Senior Fellow at the
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Harvard Business School and former Small Business Administrator Small Business
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Administration for the SBA for under President Barack Obama from
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: two thousand nine to two thousand thirteen. Karen Mills, thank
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: you very much joining us from Boston. You can be
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: followed on Twitter at Karen G. Mills. I am happy
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: New year to you too. Let's talk about a small
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: business and the tax overhaul plan. I wonder if maybe
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: just start with one aspect of it that is related
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: to the A C A Affordable Care Act, and this
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: is the individual UH mandate. Is there anything in the
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: bill that would change the way small businesses have to
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: UM offer or provide for the health insurance of their employees. Well,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you started with the tax bill, but overall,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: so now that I'm a faculty member, I did end
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: of year grading on the Trump administration and UM. The
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: total report card is three season a D. But one
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: of the seasons for taxes UM, the health care pieces,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: you know, was sort of tagged on there for political reasons.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: And it's really too bad because it turns out that
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: about four million people in the Obama Care UM markets
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: are small business owners who are buying individual coverage, and
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: we don't know what's going to happen, UM, because we
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: don't really understand the impact of the mandate taking away
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: the mandate on pricing. But in the last two years
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: there was a JP Morgan study that came out this
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: year that said it has gone up very little for
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: small business owners who are buying on the individual marketplace,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: So it is possible that that will go away. Very
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: few small businesses, I think, will um choose not to
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: buy coverage when they had before because their their employees
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: are going to ask for it. And we're in tight
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: labor markets now, and if employees aren't getting health care coverage,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: they're going to switch to a place that gives it
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: to them. So I'm not sure that uh, this was
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: worth doing and what it accomplished, Okay, And I don't
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: want to get into too much about the mandate for
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: individual health care, but a lot of it I know
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: had to do with the cost, the premium cost and
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: then the high deductible. So they had some cases in
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: which people looked at how much it was going to
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: cost them to get health and show earns and they said,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: you know what, if my deductible is going to be
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: five thousand. Why am I going to buy health insurance
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: for something that I don't believe that I'm necessarily going
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: to use. I really just want a catastrophic care. Is that?
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's at least the other side of the
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: argument correct. Well, as long as you know, it's up
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: to an individual what they're gonna buy. But if they
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: don't buy any health insurance, that puts them and their
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: employer at risk. Because an employer a small business like
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: a family, and if one of your employees get sick.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I had small business owners tell me they went out
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: of pocket themselves to help them. So employers want to
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: provide health insurance because if somebody gets sick and they're
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: not covered, it's everybody else that pays. So I think
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: what has happened is that people actually have gotten used
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: to Obamacare. You saw in a very short enrollment period
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: we had nine million people sign up, more than anybody expected.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: So I think what's going to happen is that we've
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: got a solution. I think people are still going to
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: use it. All right, let's focus now on another aspect
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: of the tax over how you mentioned family businesses, and
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: I'm wondering if the increase in the ceiling for estate
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: taxes will have a positive effect for for those kinds
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: of uh financial you know, organizations. I mean, if you're
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: running a small business or have a business that has
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: a high level of assets that are going to be
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: valued upon death. Will won't this be beneficial? You know?
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: I think it actually will be beneficial. I'm all for
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: family businesses. I think that this is an important part
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: of you know, the American heritage, and that people UM
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: have said that they want to be able to pay
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: the tax once not twice. And the state tax is
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: UM is pretty tough tax. So I think this is
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: going to um be helpful to small businesses. Another piece,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: by the way, that's helped fill is the accelerated depreciation UM.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: It's an unusual sort of technical bit, but we did
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: it twice during the Obama administration, and we found that
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: actually did encourage people to buy a truck, you know,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to buy some equipment, and that creates more jobs. Right,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: do you get to write it off much more, much
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: more quickly? Just a quick question to you, if you
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: could redo any of the grades that you gave you
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: said the three season a d anything you could do
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: to increase the great average gives well D is for dealmaker.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Trump has not proved to be a good deal maker.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: And there's so many deals on the table here in
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: regulation reform, UH, in infrastructure, in giving tax breaks for
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: training or having employers pay for college. He really missed
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: a big opportunity, UM to do bipartisan deals and bring
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: this big business to the table, to do things that
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: fundamentally helped our economy. One of the season is for
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: UM the economy as a whole. Nothing here structurally changed.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: What's going to happen going forward? So when you predict
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: for how are we going to have an economy that
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: really grows without some structural change, well maybe the grade
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: will improve. In from Karen Mills, Senior Fellow, Harvard Business School,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: thanks for being with us. We know that millions of
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: people are going to be gathering in a Times Square
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: in New York City for the ball drop to US
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Shore in the new year, and also are all around
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the world. People will be gathering in groups to share
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the festivities. One thing that they will have in common
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: in addition to looking to is security, and by some estimates,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: the physical security industry globally could end up being a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: two hundred billion dollar market. Here to tell us a
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: little bit more about the security and the industry itself
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: is Lou Palumbo. He is the director of Elite Intelligence
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: and Protection. Lou, Happy New Year to you. You're going
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: to be in Times Square. I understand, yes, this is
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: about my consecutive year I've I've had the pleasure of
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: supporting various clients in Time Square for the News Eve celebration. Okay,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: So over the course of your career, I'm sure you've
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: seen some big changes to security. What are some of
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the ones that you can highlight for us? Well, clearly
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: after nine eleven and on the heels of these UM,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I would say, rather commonplace incidents throughout the world and
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: now our country, we've seen seen an increased presence of
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: law enforcement, especially in the form of practical units. Post
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: nine eleven, they began to implement what we call high
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: pointment and observers, which are snipers. I'm not divulging anything
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: that the Police Commissioner O'Neill hasn't already spoken to UM.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: We've seen the perimeters pushed out, choke points hardened, UM,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: increase of overall deployment for this for this event, UH
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: taking control of the subways, shutting down garages, and proximity
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: of times square welding the caps for the streaked guests
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: is to escape from corn ed. We've done everything, removal
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: of garbage pails, post office boxes, everything you could possibly
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: imagine that could represent some form of a delivery system
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: for a device or even an individual. So we've seen
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: consistently post nine eleven, a continuous hardening of target. Now,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: this hardening of targets, it comes with a cost, right absolutely,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: you know, and I know people ask me all the
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: time about that. You know, what's the budge it like?
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: And my response to them is the budget is rather
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: fluid because based on an event or or an episode
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: the week before or even the evening of could change
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the entire approach of a law enforcement agency, not just
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: locally but through our federal agencies and the intelligence community.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: And what I say to people is, how do you
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: monitorize the value of someone's life? You can't. And the
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: thing I do want to say, which I think people
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: should be mindful of, whatever the amounts of money that
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: are being allocated in budget to secure these events, whether
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: it's Sat Patty's, they parade, the Halloween festivity on October
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: thirty one in Lower Manhattan uh St Patrick's Thanksgiving Time Square.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: The police department seems to have a formula that they've
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: been able to put into place that we have not
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: had an incident. So I know that there's a lot
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: of money involved, as we know just listening to when
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: President Trump comes into Trump Tower, they estimated a million
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: dollars a day. It's hard to give a definitive number,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: but whatever of that number is, it seems to be
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the right number because they seem to have the deployment down.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: They seem to have the perimeter properly constructed, and I
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: don't mean just from north to south and east to west,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: even vertically. They have this down pretty much pat and
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: there's no other police department in the world that has
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the ability to do something like in New Year's Eve
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: deployment because of the thirty seven thousand sworn officers they
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: have in the city lou We understand and and UH
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: of course are grateful for all of their efforts, and
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: not only in New York, but around the country and
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: around the world. You have law enforcement officials working and
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: during these times to secure the environments. Is what do
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: you say though, if someone comes back and says, look,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: these threats that you are guarding against, they are they
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: may be threats against specific areas. In other words, as
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: horrible as a potential attack might be, it is not
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: going to cause the country to come to a complete stop.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Even we found that even with nine eleven that the
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: country rebuilt itself and went on. Is there a point
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: at which you would say, gee, we want the news media,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: let's say, to offer less publicity to the people that
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: perpetrate these things, because it's not a physical attack that's
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: going to cripple the economy, but it it becomes a
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: psychological attack. Yes, that's correct. And one of the mechanisms
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: that prevents the psychological attack from overcoming the citizens of
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: this concert country or the residents of the state and
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: city of New York is the reassurance that law enforcement
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: is going to provide a safe and as safe in
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: an environment as they possibly can. So I go back
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: and say this again. You know, you know, I I
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: live by this philosophy error on the side of caution,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: and that's a lot of what law enforcement does as well.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: And I repeat to you again, whatever they have implemented
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: as far as planning and methodology, it's working. So I
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: don't know if there's a criticism, if that's what I'm
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: sensing that can be made, or a question. No, no,
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: it was. It wasn't a criticism of of their efforts.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: It was what can the non law enforcement officials or
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: even just regular people give you that tensecon What can
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: regular people do in order to support all of your efforts. Basically,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: the first thing is if you see things that are
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: out of the ordinary, report at number one. Number two.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Try to develop this concept what we call situational awareness.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: If you see individuals that are acting out of sync
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: in your environment, or packages are left or begs, please
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: report them immediately to a local law enforcement agency. In addition,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: I would recommend that everybody abandoned the practice of sticking
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: earbuds in their ears, which is kind of commonly done.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: It's how we unestize ourselves to a lot of points.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Good point, Lou Palumbo, thank you very much, and happy
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: New Year two, Director of Elite Intelligence and Protection about
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: Security on coming up New Year's Eve celebrations. Thanks for
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud or whatever.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: Podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa abramoits one
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide on
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio