Latest / UK Column Radio / On the Ground in Venezuela: US Aggression, The "Drug War" Lie & The New Monroe Doctrine
Transcript
- 0:00Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel
- 0:04Podcast. I'm your host Carl Zah.
- 0:07Today we have a very special guest, Diago, all the way from
- 0:12Krakus, Venezuela. As many people know, right now,
- 0:17US is carrying out serious military aggression against
- 0:20Venezuela. So I invited Diago Seguerra to
- 0:25come to tell us what the situation is on the ground.
- 0:29But, but first, for my audience, Diego, could you, would you do a
- 0:33brief intro of who you are and what you do?
- 0:37Sure, thank you for having me, Carl, and and thank you for
- 0:41this. Well, I I'm a journalist.
- 0:44I'm a writer and a researcher for especially mostly focus on
- 0:49mission better lab outlet, which can translate roughly into truth
- 0:53mission. We don't do actual news
- 0:57coverage. We're, we're more focused
- 1:00analysis and, and processing many stuff and go as deep as we
- 1:05can with, with regarding the successive junctions we've been
- 1:09going through since, I don't know, Mission Bedard has a 12
- 1:13years already online. And so we've seen a lot from our
- 1:19perspective on what's going on, on the ground in Venezuela, but
- 1:23also for Venezuelan and Latin America or Spanish speaking
- 1:26people in general. Analysis and, and research for
- 1:32yeah, for, for, for bringing subjects that are not that usual
- 1:35in Spanish, you know, different settings, different ideological
- 1:40trends and traditions and so forth, even to an academic
- 1:44level. But of course now it's more,
- 1:47it's more, it's more Polonized. But basically that's what we do.
- 1:50And that's basically what I what I've been doing all these years.
- 1:53And I've been doing also the rounds recently in several
- 1:56interviews we've been with coincided in one of them, of
- 1:59course. And, and yeah, I mean, that's
- 2:02basically what we do. I mean, we, we cover as much as
- 2:06we can and to decode as much as we can as well, which is, you
- 2:10know, pretty common in Chavismo. I'm also, yeah, I'm, I support
- 2:13the government. I'm not a government official.
- 2:15I'm and yeah, and we are in a very complex situation which
- 2:21it's very also very rich in how many things are, you know, just
- 2:26coming through that maybe don't even belong to the Venezuelan
- 2:29situation, but it go wider, you know.
- 2:32So that's it basically. Yeah.
- 2:35So right now obviously Trump administration has really crank
- 2:39up the military pressure on Venezuela up to the 11.
- 2:44I want to ask you, what is your take on this current situation?
- 2:50Why do you think Trump administration choose at this
- 2:53particular moment to to to carry out its aggression against
- 2:58Venezuela? Of course we know US always had
- 3:01a hate boner for Venezuela ever since Travis came to power.
- 3:06This is nothing new. But why the?
- 3:09Ramping up. Yeah, why they're ramping up
- 3:12right now. Yeah.
- 3:14You know, it's funny, I remember when we we share like a panel in
- 3:20at the Iran Talk interview because it was early, there was
- 3:25clearly the early stages of this.
- 3:27And regardless of the build up and also the, yeah, clearly
- 3:32kinetic extrajudicial action, many of the things we talked
- 3:36about regardless that we didn't, I think neither of us expected
- 3:40to escalate this in this way. We knew it was going to escalate
- 3:45in some way, but not this one. Maybe the main reasons we talked
- 3:50about back then, I think they still stand and we're talking
- 3:53about, I think this combo was like 2 weeks, two months ago,
- 3:57sorry. And so it has a lot to do on.
- 4:02And there are several layers here, of course, regarding
- 4:05Venezuela and regarding the obvious reason you could just
- 4:07basically summed up because of Venezuelan resources, because of
- 4:11the political standard it has already for 1/4 of a century a
- 4:17bit more and for its geography and a lot of a lot of reasons.
- 4:22And also you have you also got like their own context, what's
- 4:25going on in the States and what also has been happening
- 4:30globally. I mean, there's an, there's an
- 4:32interrelation between all these factors like a very, in a very
- 4:35clear way, I think. And like I said, it stands on
- 4:39what they're doing now. It's, it's, it really resembles
- 4:42and it hasn't changed, but deepened I guess from two months
- 4:45from now, which is power projecting, forcing, shaping up
- 4:49the psychological elements of this in order to force an easier
- 4:52way out of this. And also, well, I think neither
- 4:58of us actually ruled out if they could go bonkers in any
- 5:01direction, you know, which is also quite a feat these days.
- 5:05So that also it it, it, it's also manifesting itself here
- 5:10through, especially through the, of course, I think it's not on
- 5:14the kinetic level, but on the think tank politician, political
- 5:18speech discourse level. I think it's insane also what it
- 5:22shows it's insane. And and that's what the the main
- 5:27reason, yeah. I remember, so during our talk
- 5:32on the Iran talks two months ago, at that time I was looking
- 5:38at this and I thought, OK, well this is obviously a a bluff
- 5:43because at that time US only pivoted about 4000 military
- 5:47personnel into the region. And looking at the numbers 4000
- 5:51military personnel is not going to do and and it's not going to
- 5:54move any needle. So at that time my assessment
- 5:57was this was a pure intimidation tactic by Trump to apply
- 6:02pressure on government of Venezuela and in hope of crack,
- 6:08create some crack and fissure in the Venezuelan society so they
- 6:12can inspire some kind of colour revolution or regime change.
- 6:16You know, essentially they do regime change on the cheap.
- 6:19But I didn't think 4000 military personnel was enough to, you
- 6:24know, to carry out a serious ground invasion.
- 6:28But but now they have pivoted significantly more military
- 6:32acid. They're they're saying they're
- 6:34going to another aircraft carrier attack group is on the
- 6:38way from from Europe and. They already, they already
- 6:41actually, they, they say that the gaol force is already on the
- 6:45Southern Command area of responsibility.
- 6:47I don't know if that's true, but that's what they say already.
- 6:50Right. And and then they have
- 6:53significantly increased naval and air assets all around the
- 6:57the bases in the Caribbean. So do you at the time when we
- 7:03talk on your wrong talk you agree with my assessment, but
- 7:07today would you, would you, would you have a different
- 7:11assessment on the current situation?
- 7:13Do you think that would still hold?
- 7:16Certainly I think it does hold, but it now has a, a very large
- 7:20extra element to it, which is the military factor, the way
- 7:22we're seeing it right now. And I think if I'm not mistaken,
- 7:26back then they, they didn't kill anyone yet either, which was
- 7:29another end we, which is another factor that also like of course
- 7:33changed everything, the tone, the rhetoric, the implications,
- 7:37the possible consequences and so forth.
- 7:39And, and yes, even although I think it, they still are looking
- 7:46for a regime change on the cheap, they're putting
- 7:50themselves in a situation that they could go further.
- 7:55I think this also, I think it also depends from where you see
- 7:58it and also what even what's going on right now, as in maybe
- 8:03I think we also talked about it back then.
- 8:05Trump could, for example, find their halfway more satisfactory
- 8:10outcome for this without going on full, you know, without
- 8:15running amok or further than they already have.
- 8:18But rule is something different. So I think it also depends on
- 8:20how any of these visions prevails and in order to see how
- 8:25far they're going to go. It's funny that we have already
- 8:29close to 10 minutes of conversation when and the
- 8:31discussion about if the drug thing is true or not, it's not
- 8:34even a discussion. It's not a subject here.
- 8:36It's not a discussion. That that's bogus.
- 8:39I mean, what we we all know that's bogus.
- 8:42The you know, the Trump was mentioning about fentanyl.
- 8:45We know that fentanyl is not coming out of Venezuela, first
- 8:48of all. And now they're actually
- 8:51expanding the whole Now they're, they're, they're aiming the
- 8:55rhetoric not only to work Venezuela, but also Colombia
- 8:59that that actually caught me by surprise a little bit because
- 9:02Colombia traditionally have been, had been the strong,
- 9:06strongest US ally in the region. And you know, basically was
- 9:10Colombia was playing the role of US proxy and many times against
- 9:15Israel. So why, why the now?
- 9:18Why? Why are they?
- 9:19Why Colombia? Yes.
- 9:20Colombia as well. Well, you can still ask the
- 9:26question if it's actually Colombia, they're, they're,
- 9:28they're thinking of or, or their president, Gustavo Petro, the
- 9:31Petro government. I mean, regardless of the
- 9:33analysis they could make and they still have huge amount of
- 9:36assets and agreements and, you know, binding legal stuff on
- 9:39trade in a lot of ways to and means of pressure.
- 9:42So it I think it's far more clear in the Colombian case.
- 9:45I don't know regarding the Colombian military, for example,
- 9:48how they would react if, if, if the pressure gets even further.
- 9:54Because also this, I mean, there are different reactions now to
- 9:57this, maybe even unexpected regarding the the support or
- 10:01rejection or silence on other Latin American quarters
- 10:05regarding what's going on other than the usual vocals one.
- 10:09But I think it has to do with that.
- 10:11And also Colombia and Minnesota are basically historically
- 10:14almost the same thing. We're like like twins, you know,
- 10:17in a way ever since the start. So that also this kind of things
- 10:22of course get also get ingrained.
- 10:23And you can also think of some neo con planning here as a wider
- 10:30theatre of operations like AF PAC, you know, the kind of
- 10:33juncture between the kind of merging of territory between
- 10:37operational areas of interest, if you may.
- 10:40So I think it's twofold in that sense because I mean, Petrol's
- 10:47politically it's far more vulnerable than than President
- 10:50Maduro is. And you have 7 officials
- 10:54declared military bases in Colombia and two more that are
- 10:58on declare and who knows how many smaller stations and Lily
- 11:01pads and whatnot on specifically on Colombia.
- 11:04Let's let's not talk about Panama and Peru and the Amazon
- 11:08and close to Brazil also and Guyana.
- 11:10So it's part of the of the empire of bases, of course.
- 11:14So I mean, I think it's not as hard as it would be here in, in,
- 11:18in thinking of a a very ham fisted riding chain scenario.
- 11:24But that also tells you what they're actually thinking of and
- 11:27also how this expansion actually is becoming a Caribbean
- 11:31situation. Of course, Venezuela is the
- 11:32flashpoint, but from the 60 plus murdered fishermen, seamen,
- 11:41smugglers of whatever, I mean, we don't know basically.
- 11:45And we in regards if we knew or not, it's still an extrajudicial
- 11:48killing. Many are Colombians and, and
- 11:51also recently the most of the operations are actually on the
- 11:54Eastern Caribbean, on the Colombian Pacific Coast, not
- 11:58only in Venezuela. And also you have also tiny
- 12:00guardians who have also died in this, in these strikes and all
- 12:04these 60 something strikes so far.
- 12:07So that also tells you 2 things. I mean, it tells you that this
- 12:11is actually bigger than Venezuela and also they it also
- 12:16tells you that that this is also about, I mean, it doesn't matter
- 12:28who it is, you know, it doesn't matter where, where, where these
- 12:31people hail from. So it's also, so it's, it's,
- 12:34it's heavily regional in, in that sense.
- 12:38But at the same time, just to this is where the, I think the
- 12:43deeper element comes. If you've pairs this with what's
- 12:48going on in Argentina or Gujana or the countries that are
- 12:51actually being insanely spoiled and quote unquote, or groomed
- 12:55or, you know, honeypotted into the actual debt traps and so on
- 12:58and so forth. It's a regional thing.
- 13:00It's the reshaping. It's wider than than we're
- 13:03actually seeing it. So yours you think this is a, a
- 13:09a grander Neil Monroe Doctrine they're trying to imposing on
- 13:14rest of the Latin America this, this is this is just a a a part
- 13:18of that. And one of the stated reason for
- 13:22U.S. government for the for the current military action is that
- 13:25they're saying they're counter Chinese and Russian influence.
- 13:29Now. Do you do you buy that?
- 13:31Do you do you think that is one of their their reason for doing
- 13:35this? Absolutely.
- 13:37I mean, in the sense of the kind of engagement that countries
- 13:40like Venezuela has currently. I mean, it, it yeah,
- 13:44geographically opens. I mean, sorry, but that I
- 13:49digress. But in a sense, I mean, there's
- 13:51not one country in Latin America that doesn't have a strong trade
- 13:55relationship with China, except for Paraguay, which still
- 13:58recognises Taiwan and and maybe some Caribbean islands as well.
- 14:02But other than that, even Argentina itself, it's not
- 14:06unable to decouple from China in this context.
- 14:09But yes, and the thing about Venezuela, if we, if we compare
- 14:13with these other countries, it's more about the, the nature of
- 14:16engagement and the, and of course on the, that's on the
- 14:21geopolitical level, but also the way it comes and how it, how
- 14:26it's not a liberal, conventional pro U.S. government that's doing
- 14:30this. I mean, that's the other problem
- 14:31they have here. I mean, and before sanctions, it
- 14:34proved to be a very successful to an extent model in order to
- 14:38bring a good example, to be a good neighbour in a different
- 14:41way and to also uphold the livelihood of people.
- 14:43And that's that are that those aren't nice stuff.
- 14:46And also we're in this also involves the health of China,
- 14:50Russia, Iran and other players, But these are the big players.
- 14:53Of course it's it's a bigger because it's going to it's going
- 14:58to strange even more the US, in this case, the US Venezuelan
- 15:02relationship, but also the US Latin American relationship.
- 15:06And they're also now all about reassuring about retaking re
- 15:09hemisphere is the word the the Project 2025 uses to explain
- 15:14what they're doing. As in, yeah, Monroe Doctrine.
- 15:18To the extent that this is not, this is even America from the
- 15:22Americans, you know, it goes further in that sense because
- 15:25they need a levance realm in order to be able to cope with
- 15:30the Asian century, a very rich and resources levance realm.
- 15:36What? What now I'm curious what what
- 15:39is the extent of China's involvement in Venezuela?
- 15:42I mean, is China investing in Venezuelan oil industry or
- 15:47somehow investing in Venezuelan economy in some way?
- 15:52I mean, why? Why are they so afraid of the
- 15:54Chinese influence? Well, you have yeah, I mean
- 15:58Chinese are engaging several levels.
- 16:00I mean from high quality made in China 2025 stuff.
- 16:03I mean thinking about what they can actually bring over to, to
- 16:07outside of the of of China, you know, from vehicles to
- 16:12appliances to yes to oil purchasing it.
- 16:17I mean, it's it's very wide, it's very comprehensive.
- 16:19So as far as it gets, I'm not into numbers right now, but and
- 16:24it's as far as I know, it still was still second regarding
- 16:27Brazil in that sense or very close to being, you know, the
- 16:30with the highest level of engagement economically speaking
- 16:33and on on trade. And also, but you have to keep
- 16:36in mind that also involves as far as sanctions are actually
- 16:40involved. I mean, in the sense there are
- 16:43some things that I guess they, for example, the oil purchasing
- 16:47is one of them, or the way they they, they, they, they exported,
- 16:51they imported. But I mean it, it I, it's very,
- 16:55it's, it's very wide regarding, but it has some limitations.
- 17:00So sorry to interrupt you, but so that because you brought
- 17:03about the oil sanction, because the US oil sanction on Venezuela
- 17:07is actually interesting because it it it, it's, it sounds like a
- 17:11white blanket ban on sanction on any export of Venezuelan oil
- 17:16except Exxon Mobil receive a waiver so they can.
- 17:22Chevron. Chevron, Chevron, sorry, sorry,
- 17:25Chevron. They, they receive a waiver so
- 17:28they can continue to export Venezuelan crude to United
- 17:32States to, to send to the US refinery.
- 17:35So it, it sounds more like the policy is really no oil for
- 17:40China, but oil should go Venezuelan oil should continue
- 17:43to flow to the US. That that that's what it looks
- 17:46like. Well, absolutely.
- 17:49I mean it has to do that. That's the message it sends
- 17:52there. I mean, but of course there are
- 17:53other players in agreements from other countries.
- 17:55Some have been thwarted with given the context, for example,
- 17:58with the shared or gas fields with Trinidad for a give you an
- 18:01important example of recent one that sadly has been also
- 18:05undermined because of the whole situation, which was actually a
- 18:08very key model of cooperation regarding, you know, energy.
- 18:13But. And yes, the the Chevron case,
- 18:16it's quite interesting because it it it, it, it adds an extra
- 18:19layer of complexity to the, to the whole dynamic in several
- 18:22ways. First, Chevron has been engaged
- 18:24in Venezuela for 100 years at least.
- 18:28Yeah, at least not I mean for 100 years, which is enough.
- 18:31Exxon, on the other hand, left Venezuela in 2007 because they
- 18:34didn't accept the terms now of the, of that, of the shares and
- 18:38the, and the way that Venezuela was rewriting the contracts
- 18:41with, with all the oil companies with a 51% share for Venezuela
- 18:45and they didn't agree with that. So they left and they have sued
- 18:47Venezuela afterwards. And they also are the main drive
- 18:51on the exploitation of offshore oil and in the disputed wars
- 18:56between Venezuela and Guyana currently.
- 19:00But at the same time, Chevron also, which has its waivers and
- 19:04tries to honour the the contracts and it's and it's
- 19:07going through the what a friend called sometime the paperwork
- 19:10sanctions. It's also close to Trump.
- 19:15I mean, they were the ones who actually paid for the for the
- 19:18inauguration party or something or the ACT for, you know, so
- 19:22that's also a different layer of all this.
- 19:24And also Rubio's very close to Exxon Mobil, Marco Rubio.
- 19:28So this also set up, you know, another contradictory element to
- 19:32a very messy relationship between politics slash ideology
- 19:37and energy and energy market stability.
- 19:41Because there was two weeks ago, there was this Friday.
- 19:46I don't know if it was, you know, psychological shaping,
- 19:48creating the atmosphere, but a lot of movement was going on.
- 19:51And you could in in hindsight, I thought maybe that last Friday
- 19:54could have something could have happened and it didn't.
- 19:58But, and it's not clear yet for me.
- 20:00I mean, it's not hard to prove other than the usual speculation
- 20:03in spinning that, but it was possible.
- 20:05But it wasn't, you know, that kind of atmosphere which is
- 20:08which is intense and. But it seems that the prepared
- 20:13Bloomberg, the the WTI at that moment, just because of the
- 20:17uncertainty was just surging its price.
- 20:22So this also could adds up another, you know, layer of of
- 20:26contradictions and and conflict wind side that also could
- 20:29explain the relationship between views and also the why why maybe
- 20:36nothing has happened yet. What are they waiting for if
- 20:39they're going to actually do something with the military
- 20:42aspect of this situation? Right.
- 20:48I, I mean, just the, what you describe about the relationship
- 20:51between the Chevron and the White House and Marco Rubio,
- 20:53this, this actually makes perfect sense in American
- 20:55context because American politics has always been paid to
- 21:00play and and we have the best politician the money can buy.
- 21:05So that that actually was perfectly understandable.
- 21:09So so sorry. Sorry I interrupted you before.
- 21:12No, no, please, please go on. I, I, I, I can go.
- 21:14I can drift away. So don't worry.
- 21:16So it's good that you do that. Right.
- 21:18Because so right now, what do you think countries like China,
- 21:24Russia and Iran can assist Venezuela in the face of US
- 21:30aggression currently? I think it depends on it's a
- 21:35case by case thing. You know, there's no other than
- 21:37the, you know, the most general overall diplomatic multilateral
- 21:43approach, which is of course, it's common among all of these
- 21:47countries, be it China, Russia and Iran.
- 21:49But yes, there are different levels of engagement and, and
- 21:55also areas, I think, I mean, China has a very different and
- 21:58very cautious way to, to deal with this kind of things because
- 22:02of how counterproductive Canada is and how much of part of it to
- 22:05say to this trap this could be, you know, so it's quite risk
- 22:08averse of this kind of things, but they still support
- 22:12politically, diplomatically and commercially.
- 22:18So and they're not and I don't think that's going to stop And
- 22:21it could probably intensify, you know, which is also an
- 22:24interesting trend you can see right now, be it with, with
- 22:30foreign friends, partners or be it inside Venezuela, what
- 22:33they're doing, what the government is doing, facing the
- 22:37current juncture. So that's China.
- 22:40I, I wouldn't personally wouldn't expect more than that
- 22:43they actually are doing right now, but they're going to be
- 22:44persistent and maybe maybe I don't know, they can tone it up,
- 22:48maybe they can do depends on where where this goes.
- 22:50And I can't predict China's behaviour, but given precedence,
- 22:55it makes like it's what makes more sense.
- 22:57Russia, it's different. I think they're more proactive
- 23:02in that sense and they have been also very important assistance
- 23:07in technical military field, you know, the material military
- 23:12field in various areas and also in, in military trade.
- 23:17So, and there have been a lot of joint exercises and so forth and
- 23:21a lot of security cooperation. So that also, I don't know how
- 23:25the full extent, but I, I do know it's, it's more intensive
- 23:29in that sense. They're more easily involved in
- 23:31that kind of thing. But I don't think either this is
- 23:32not, this is a country that won't, which is also something
- 23:35that many, you know, have been got this question several times.
- 23:40If they're going to go in, go to the field, I mean, of course, I
- 23:43think it's pretty hard. I don't think so they will do.
- 23:45And same for the Iranians also. I mean, neither of the three I
- 23:48think are going to have like a very strong kinetic action on an
- 23:52official level. That mean at least, you know,
- 23:55Iran has for me, I think it's the most engaged of the three
- 23:59for their own reasons and the nature of the relationship with
- 24:02Venezuela, especially facing sanctions.
- 24:05And they're kind of, I mean, how the tactics and how to curtail
- 24:09them and how to work around them and that kind of thing, that
- 24:11kind of stuff. And, and also advising.
- 24:14But once again, also there's military equipment.
- 24:17But I don't, I can't, I don't see in this national scenario in
- 24:22which on a state level something of this sort happens.
- 24:27But that's also enough. I mean, also, why are they going
- 24:29to get involved if the country is not able to defend itself in
- 24:32any given situation? That's also another element, of
- 24:34course, and that's important, Carl, because I think there's a
- 24:38Decedian 2024 fetish. It's also part of the equation
- 24:43as in their own crazy domino theory.
- 24:46They're going to just betting on this.
- 24:48It will also happen to Venezuela.
- 24:50And to some extent that analysis is correct in the sense that
- 24:53they have been applied the same means of pressure regardless of
- 24:58with economic or, or covert or whatever.
- 25:02I mean, it's quite similar to the ways that they have been
- 25:04also institutional, the way they have been twisted and forcing
- 25:07our own institutions to break. I mean, they're all branches of
- 25:11even our own, even our branches of government.
- 25:13So there are a lot of similarities.
- 25:15But that's, but that gets to a point.
- 25:17It's not the same. And you can't just like, you
- 25:21know, think it's going to happen exactly the same way.
- 25:24But on principle it's correct, as in maximum impression brings
- 25:28collapsing collapse will bring some sort of political takeover.
- 25:31But it's not the same case. And it's, I think there are a
- 25:34lot of bad calculations going on.
- 25:35I think there are a lot of problems with the analytical
- 25:39process of all this. There's, there's a recent piece
- 25:42by the CSIS regarding. Yeah, they've been following it
- 25:48quite intensely. Of course, it's paid by Exxon.
- 25:50So the, you know, the, the main takeaway it's going to be it's
- 25:54going to be possible. It's going to be cable if we if
- 25:56you do this kind of thing. And of course, it's always
- 25:59written by a inside think tanker, junior think tanker in a
- 26:04some Colonel or general from the Air Force and or something like
- 26:08that, which is the case. And it's, and it's interesting
- 26:12how they actually also have to admit that, admit that it's very
- 26:17limited, even still having 20,000 troops right now or
- 26:21something. You know, I think 40,000 it
- 26:24could be a number, but no 10,000, sorry.
- 26:28But if they need at least 550 thousand at least and some plans
- 26:32would think about 150,000. So they admit that if this if
- 26:37these are not the even without with with the Ford arrival, if
- 26:42this these are not the elements, then this is about something
- 26:44else. This is about forcing in a very
- 26:49comprehensive way region change inside Venezuela by several
- 26:53means, but especially try to bring to set up some sort of
- 26:56disruptive attacks that would enable maybe some sort of
- 27:00insurgency Libya style so that they kind of suggested, but the
- 27:05but the take away that's important.
- 27:06That's only that because I've seen that in other papers from
- 27:09different institutions. Also it's the fact that they
- 27:13even want they acknowledge risk and two they have to force
- 27:17inheritance and say it's going to be easy because of this
- 27:21markers, whatever they are. So that also tells you that how
- 27:24this also it's, it has like, like that urgency and to justify
- 27:31the how the viability of the of it all.
- 27:34And how big is this? I mean, how how big of forces
- 27:36are actually operating here? Yeah, I mean, this is obviously
- 27:40why Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize, right?
- 27:43I mean, even though that's a that's a prize that Trump very
- 27:47much wanted for himself, but they have to give it to Machado
- 27:50because they need to make sure success of this this operation.
- 27:55And then Machado goes on to to openly support military
- 28:00operation against her own country.
- 28:02This is a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
- 28:05I mean, we live in a 1984 here. Peace is war, folks.
- 28:10You know, Nobel Peace Prize owner advocating for war.
- 28:14But, but that's why she was selected for, for Nobel Peace
- 28:17Prize in the 1st place. And, and, and I would think I
- 28:22was also looking at the kind of the level of military pivot to
- 28:27Caribbean. Right now.
- 28:29It's mostly naval and Air Force. So, you know, I don't think they
- 28:33are, you know, ready at this point for like a ground level
- 28:38invasion. I mean that, that, that will can
- 28:40get very messy very quickly. And, and, and I think also US is
- 28:45going to have some logistic issues to actually be able to
- 28:48transport ships. They just don't simply don't
- 28:51have those army transport ships that on the scale they have
- 28:55during the Iraq War anymore. Those ships were are are have
- 28:59been mothballed and and and so they might be thinking about
- 29:03this is my, my, my, my, my guess that they they may have been
- 29:07thinking about doing at most at most either just through
- 29:12intimidation or at most kinetic level doing some kind of the the
- 29:18Obama's lead from behind campaign in Libya style where
- 29:22the where they will send in some Air Force to do some strategic
- 29:26bombing and hopefully to cause some insurgency inside Venezuela
- 29:30to overthrew the Maduros government.
- 29:33And I do is, is that why is that why recently Maduro announced
- 29:38that he was going to distribute rifles throughout the country?
- 29:43I think there are two, those are two different things in that
- 29:46sense. But yeah, I mean, I fully agree
- 29:48with that. And I think my view that at
- 29:51least for a year over 20 terrorist plot has been foiled
- 29:58by the the the security agencies here in Venezuela.
- 30:04That tells you something. Once you see this from the other
- 30:07hand, and I can quote it, by the way, surely, surely there's this
- 30:11also another report of this late pro war pro intervention in
- 30:15Venezuela literature that says that basically it's a short 1
- 30:18and it seems like tailored for Trump.
- 30:20Basically it says that a air strikes on Venezuela to support
- 30:25an insurgency would succeed in throughout the whole country
- 30:28except from Caracas. So yeah, it's in the it's it's
- 30:32in the literature in that sense. And also this CASIS report says
- 30:35something about too risky to to do short range or mid mid range
- 30:41attacks. So you have to be do long range.
- 30:43So yes, this widens the scope of the covert unconventional
- 30:48approach to this. And if if this now you can, you
- 30:56can you can make both things dialogue as in you have the
- 31:00terrorist attempts, the infiltrations and so on and so
- 31:03on. And you have this.
- 31:05Yeah, it clearly shows that I agree.
- 31:07I mean, I agree with you what you're saying with with your
- 31:09assessment, which basically was the same back then, by the way.
- 31:12I mean, it seems more plausible some sort of air strikes and
- 31:16maybe also naval, but not a not a full occupation of sorts.
- 31:22And yes, if it's for regime change, they, they need this,
- 31:30this proxy force, which of course Maria Corina Machado has
- 31:32been that proxy throughout her whole life, throughout her whole
- 31:36political life. And so, and then you have
- 31:42another thing, which is Trump declaring that he authorised
- 31:46covert, CIA covert operations against Venezuela.
- 31:50I mean, which is pretty, I mean, it's, it's pretty, it's, I mean,
- 31:54it's pretty obvious COVID operations have been going on
- 31:58already. So this is about something else.
- 32:01Of course it is not about saying that now they're starting, but
- 32:04there are clear proof of this. I mean, recently they would try
- 32:07to get to A to the president's pilot in order to, they were,
- 32:13they were trying to bribe him in order to make him say, you know,
- 32:16move course and fly the plane into Miami or something and get
- 32:21our president arrested. So, yeah, there are clear signs
- 32:25what I mean there are clear signs of trying to disrupt
- 32:28internally, you know, and, and sabotage or yeah, infiltrating
- 32:34some sort of, you know, terrorist groups or, and try to
- 32:36bring about some sort of insurgency.
- 32:38But the important thing, Carl, also, which is also I think one
- 32:41of the most important takeaways of the real centre situation
- 32:44right now. Is it nothing of that.
- 32:45It's not only working. People aren't still, after two
- 32:49months of this, freaked out about this.
- 32:51There's no collapse. There's no major breakdown of of
- 32:55the society. There's no actual insurgency
- 32:59brewing. You don't feel like an
- 33:01insurrectional atmosphere going on.
- 33:03You don't see other than on social media and media outside
- 33:08of Venezuela, you don't see that here.
- 33:10People, first of all, people are not are on interest in
- 33:14supporting this kind of things. And that's a big, every poll
- 33:17shows big numbers regarding this.
- 33:19I mean, there's a minority and there's also a majority in the
- 33:23social media landscape, which are many diaspora Venezuelans
- 33:26actually supporting this, you know, and there are people who
- 33:29also who also supports, but they're not, they're not,
- 33:33they're a minority ones one time, not even back in 2019-2020
- 33:37with Guaido, there was a bigger, stronger consensus than the one
- 33:40there is right now. And I'm including there
- 33:42Venezuelan opposition politicians, more of, you know,
- 33:45the rational factions of the opposition who also condemned
- 33:49and do not agree with with AUS intervention in order to bring
- 33:53about regime change. And so that's important.
- 33:55I mean, you have that level of resistance which involves the
- 33:58military aspects and the national mobilisation aspect of
- 34:02people, you know, joining the militias, training and doing
- 34:05drills. Not only drills, not only
- 34:07military drills, but also disaster relief drills and also
- 34:11at the same time, national consultations, national commune
- 34:15consultations, which are directed elections for projects
- 34:20on local needs, you know, and infrastructure or health or
- 34:26anything that a commune that's organised, that's going to be a
- 34:29communal circuit. That's the sum of communes are
- 34:32going to decide where are they going to allocate a budget.
- 34:35There's a big one coming the 23rd.
- 34:38So these are also the the ways to resist and also to show that
- 34:45this kind of unimpressed feat unimpressive for Venezuelans in
- 34:49that sense. It's not working still.
- 34:52I think the only one that's that's go on.
- 34:55That that that actually leads to my next question is what is a
- 35:00sentiment on the street level right now in Caracas?
- 35:04Are people worry about this is a tense is like is this do do do
- 35:09do people, you know, constantly talking about this every day or
- 35:14is everybody just still going through their normal normal
- 35:17routine lives? Yeah, I mean, everyone is about
- 35:21their business, man. I mean, that's, that's, that's
- 35:23one thing the question can come up and it would it could take
- 35:27any direction during, during the conversation.
- 35:31Mostly people don't want it, but most people are focused on
- 35:34getting money, you know, and just, you know, keep, keep it up
- 35:38with your life and your livelihood.
- 35:40And especially now, which because this is also social,
- 35:43sociological and cultural aspect.
- 35:45This is the end. We already started the end of
- 35:46the year, you know, the holiday spirit and so on, which is very
- 35:51intense in Venezuela. Actually, our president declared
- 35:55that Christmas started on October already, but that
- 35:58actually gets as you get closer to December, it, it gets
- 36:02intensified and people are actually mostly focused on that
- 36:04and to make and, and yeah, and go be your ends meet and be able
- 36:08to, you know, have the traditional party party in
- 36:12Venezuelan, the Christmas style, you know, and that's actually
- 36:15the the main baseline you're going to see anywhere in the
- 36:19country. So at that's for me, it's the
- 36:22biggest measure of this. Of course, there might be fear
- 36:25there might be concerned that the situation could change also.
- 36:29I mean, we're talking now and one more time with it was quite
- 36:34different. We we were talking two months
- 36:35ago. So who knows, even a a week from
- 36:38now, you know, this week actually has felt now as a, you
- 36:41know, as a preceptus in soil. And I mean, that's a very slow
- 36:45one regarding the previous ones as how intense the ones that
- 36:49we're actually following this feel about that, you know, which
- 36:53is not necessarily what common people on the streets feel about
- 36:56this. But given the movements, it has
- 36:59been different. I mean, it's like, I don't know
- 37:03if it's the high of the hurricane.
- 37:04I don't know if it's fizzling out in some ways.
- 37:06I don't know if the there are no actual internal contradictions
- 37:10regarding what to do. There's some weird stuff going
- 37:12on. I don't know if you saw, but
- 37:13allegedly the Brits are not sharing more intelligence with
- 37:18the US on the Caribbean, which was used to be a common thing
- 37:21regarding drug dealing, drug trafficking and smuggling.
- 37:26And of course, you know, they have also a heavy, discreet,
- 37:28very Britishly discreet presence in the Caribbean.
- 37:32And so they say this. I mean, and it's not that they
- 37:35say it. It was reported by CNN and there
- 37:37was no Downing 10 Downing St official denying it.
- 37:43So that's weird. Two weeks ago also, there was
- 37:46some weird pushback to I mean, Marco Rubio had to scold some
- 37:51scoops by Miami Herald and saying that these were these
- 37:55were fake news. It was a lie and you base the
- 37:58whole report on a lie or whatnot.
- 38:00But that could also mean that he he was doing damage control, for
- 38:03example, because he was the one who legal, you know, neocons
- 38:05style, Florida neocons style, which always have like a stint
- 38:08of Gloria Stefan to it. And or was it some push back
- 38:16from some liberals liberal section of this of this of spook
- 38:19world, you know, US empire spook world or five, I don't know.
- 38:23So those are that there are all these things moving and, and
- 38:27they are also maybe, you know, having a, an actual inference if
- 38:32all what we're saying is true, because there also has been an
- 38:35insane amount of spin. I mean, and, and, and it has got
- 38:39ingrained. There have been many reports.
- 38:41For example, one was from the New York Times regarding
- 38:46Venezuela was willing to, you know, cut off all the deals with
- 38:50China, Iran and Russia and give all those, those that access to
- 38:55the US in order to stop this. That's absolutely false.
- 38:58Then The Atlantic was saying that Maduro was negotiating,
- 39:02negotiating something like to bail out of power and also an
- 39:05immunity for him and his and his quote, UN quote, cronies to live
- 39:10a golden exile somewhere and leave the country alone or
- 39:12something, which is also spin. So you also have to deal with
- 39:15that later of all this. It's so it's too much, man.
- 39:19It's crazy how much it's going. Yeah.
- 39:20That's active propaganda. I mean, this is, that's a Azure
- 39:23prop. Azure prop.
- 39:26Yes, it's exactly. Designed to spread this
- 39:29information and destabilise. But this this lead me to the
- 39:34next question. But before that, not many people
- 39:37might even know there's British military presence in the
- 39:40Caribbean. I was.
- 39:42Actually, I was actually surprised when I travelled to
- 39:45Belize in like around 2000 O 4 and I when I saw British
- 39:50military presence in Belize and then I realised, OK, the Brits
- 39:55hasn't really left their colonies but the but what?
- 39:59What is the attitude of other Latin American countries towards
- 40:03this? By the way, regarding the the
- 40:05preview, not only the Brits, but the French and the Dutch as
- 40:08well, this is, I mean the Caribbean has also like an
- 40:11Article 5 territory kind of things, you know, regarding the
- 40:15NATO. But other countries it's yeah, I
- 40:20think for example, Tini, that has gone like been a very roller
- 40:25coaster move because there have been quite many people have been
- 40:28disturbed and upset with what with, with, with what it's going
- 40:32on on a social political level and also a, a humane one.
- 40:37I mean, some of their fellow countrymen has been killed and
- 40:41they stayed, they have, they're not involved in any of this kind
- 40:43of criminal activity. So that I think has had a very
- 40:48an important postback in Trinidad, I don't know how far.
- 40:51And I, you know, that doesn't mean that the government is
- 40:53stopping because it has become a very proactive 1.
- 40:55Sadly, the one from Pinon Tobago, which is, you know,
- 40:58it's, I don't know, it's very, it's from the, from northeast,
- 41:02northeastern Venezuela to Trinidad.
- 41:03It's like, I think it's like 40 nautical miles.
- 41:06I mean, it's very, very close. I might be mistaken, but it's a
- 41:09very, very short distance between Venezuela and Trinidad.
- 41:13That's why Trinidad is also part of the, of the equation, just as
- 41:17Guyana. And they've also tried to push
- 41:19Granada to allow the US to set up a radar station there without
- 41:26overly stadiums for Venezuela. But of course it is it's 100
- 41:29miles nautical miles or something from Granada to
- 41:32Venezuela. So there's a lot of pushing and
- 41:34shoving and driving with the Caribbean countries, but the
- 41:37mood is different. I mean, Barbados is against
- 41:39this. Jamaica has also said something
- 41:41milder and Tiguan Barbuda has also been against them.
- 41:44They, they condemn it. They actually the case of for
- 41:48example, Martinica, they offer themselves to mediate in the
- 41:52situation because this is undermining the declaration of
- 41:55the peace declaration from tomb from 2012 throughout the region.
- 41:59And also the Platte local declaration from the six from
- 42:02late, early, yes, late 60s, which declared that no nuclear
- 42:06weapons which should be in, in the Western Hemisphere, in
- 42:10South, in the Caribbean and South America.
- 42:13Then you have Colombia right now.
- 42:15Yes, go ahead. Go ahead.
- 42:18Sorry, I I was going to just going to ask you about the other
- 42:20big Latin. American countries by exactly,
- 42:22exactly. Yeah, yeah.
- 42:24I mean, the Caribbean is important this then and it's
- 42:27crazy how important it actually is regardless how quote unquote
- 42:30small it is. I mean, it's, it's highly
- 42:32strategic. That's why there's so many
- 42:34people and in the Caribbean currently, of course.
- 42:37And you know also well, and then you have Colombia now, which
- 42:42clearly has, there's a shift there because of the government.
- 42:45It has and there must be also, and also the mood.
- 42:48It's not, I don't think it's unified in one direct specific
- 42:51direction right now. Maybe some people can worry
- 42:53because Petro's getting them into trouble or not.
- 42:56There are elections coming next year.
- 42:57So that's also been quite well. I don't know how fragile it is
- 43:03or how successful it's going to be The, the, the, the successor
- 43:06of Petro, which is Ivan Cepedro, a far more talented than
- 43:09intelligent guy, by the way. I'm not saying Petro's stupid,
- 43:12but I mean, this guy's even, it's even smarter.
- 43:15So that also, I don't know what happens there, but Colombia
- 43:18could be a pivoting element whatever happens with these
- 43:24elections or if we're cool and Sous or something.
- 43:28But officially it's against, of course, it's supporting
- 43:31Venezuela. And it's nice also to see how
- 43:33the Bolivarian spirit, which is also very important here, you
- 43:37know, about nationalism, about actual nationalism that maybe
- 43:39many people in the West basically don't understand, also
- 43:42has a saying here. And Colombia seems to like
- 43:47finally manifesting it after a very long sleep, you know, And
- 43:52then you have players like Ecuador or Argentina, which is
- 43:56even more crazy. That's.
- 43:59Just on the on the Colombian thing, I think some of my
- 44:02English audience might not understand this is United States
- 44:06is bringing back the grand Colombia, the vision of Simon
- 44:10Simone. Bolivar, right?
- 44:13Exactly because Colombia and and and and Venezuela used to be 1
- 44:17country under Simone Bolivar and US, through its aggressive
- 44:22policies to both Colombia and Venezuela, is finally bringing
- 44:26back the Grand Columbia back together.
- 44:29But yeah. Yeah, man, like a great remark,
- 44:31man, that was important. And that's exactly it.
- 44:33I mean, it kind of like blowback is going to bring, we could
- 44:37bring wonderful things for us and very bad things for them in
- 44:40that sense, you know, who knows? That's I, I mean, that's
- 44:43actually a possibility. I mean, it runs it, it, it has,
- 44:47there's something, there's a deeper layer in this and it's
- 44:50going to be able to, if we, if we go through this and we're
- 44:53able to, to overcome it, something new will happen in, in
- 44:56that sense, I think. And it has to do with that and
- 44:58it has to do with that history, which is a whole different
- 45:01subject. You have Brazil also, which is a
- 45:03big player, but it's quite lukewarm.
- 45:05But they also condemn this. And you have Argentina on the
- 45:07other side, which with melee upfront and with, I mean it's
- 45:12now a Black Rock Zionist colony currently.
- 45:16And so and they're very proactive on the other side.
- 45:18Marco Rubio at the early stages and tried to create some sort of
- 45:23coalition of the willing bringing over Argentina, Guyana,
- 45:28Trinidad and Tobago and some Central American countries like
- 45:31Panama, of course, the Panama, Ghana and what and what we saw
- 45:37regionally regarding China as well, of course and China and
- 45:41BlackRock by the way. I mean, there's a difference.
- 45:44So that's how intense this is. Yeah, China just rejected the
- 45:49deal for BlackRock to take over the canal ports because exactly
- 45:53those two, those canal, the the the the ports on both sides of
- 45:57the canal were operated by a Hong Kong company, Hutchinson
- 46:00Wong PO. And and the United States have
- 46:03been put a lot of pressure on the billionaire owner of
- 46:06Hutchinson Wampa, the Kaixin, to sell it to BlackRock.
- 46:10That deal almost went through and then finally Chinese
- 46:13government put its foot down. It's like, no, no, no, you know,
- 46:17listen to us. We are, you might be a
- 46:19billionaire, you might own those companies, but we going to make
- 46:23the call. You are not going to sell it to
- 46:25BlackRock. Otherwise all your business in
- 46:27China are going to be blacklisted.
- 46:29So that, that, so China veto that, that deal.
- 46:32And, and, and this is because they understand the, the reason
- 46:36US want control of those Panamium, Panamium ports is
- 46:40because then US will have a veto on China's trade with Latin
- 46:45America. I mean, that's a whole, that's a
- 46:46whole point. This is how that's why they're
- 46:48crying about Chinese influence in Latin America.
- 46:51They want to curtail it. And and that This is why Trump
- 46:54want to put a a tariff on any goods coming out of the Chiang
- 46:58Kai port in Peru, because trying to help that port.
- 47:02Yeah. So, So, yeah, yeah.
- 47:05This is this again. This call goes back to the Neo
- 47:08Monroe Doctrine strategy, trying to preserve the West Hemisphere
- 47:12for exclusive US influence and. You know, you know, regarding
- 47:18that, if we get, even if we, if we go even further in that in
- 47:20the, with regarding the Monroe Doctrine, it's even more like
- 47:24the Roseville corollary, that would be this one that's being
- 47:27deepened. And you know also because, you
- 47:30know, the Monroe Doctrine, of course, by James Monroe, 1823
- 47:32and so forth, America for the Americans basically, which is,
- 47:36yeah, not allowing any of the European powers to to yeah, to
- 47:41have a bigger influence in the in the hemispheric affairs, of
- 47:46course, with a thin veil decoration, say like we're we
- 47:50all friends now, aren't we all friends?
- 47:52You know, that kind of approach. But there's this extension to
- 47:55it, which is a Roosevelt called corollary from Theodore
- 47:58Roosevelt, which basically says something like, but if the any
- 48:03countries unable to behave and unable to sort out their own
- 48:07business and we're going to we have the right to sort it out
- 48:11ourselves. So it this also in the
- 48:15historical area, it's like a big comeback of Roosevelt in
- 48:20politics, not only in the region because of which, but also
- 48:23worldwide. I, I, I would argue it's
- 48:27Roosevelt politic was A twist because Roosevelt is famously
- 48:32saying, you know, speak softly but carry a giant stick.
- 48:36What's the Trump administration is doing right now is talk very
- 48:39loudly and carrying an increasingly diminishing stick.
- 48:44That is a difference with Teddy. Yes, well, the, the, the 100
- 48:48years difference there's I mean, and you know, first as a tragedy
- 48:53and then as a farce. I mean, it stands here just as
- 48:56perfectly. You know, it fits nicely because
- 48:58it in and also regarding Panama in the middle of this and rules.
- 49:01But and all we're talking about is if you know, Panama was
- 49:04basically in set as independent from Colombia after the 1000
- 49:10wars. They on AUSS ship and forgot the
- 49:13name, but the document was written by JP Morgan, you know,
- 49:18so that kind of and and it is that approach and it also have
- 49:22it also has some resonances with, you know, filibustering
- 49:26the antebellum stuff. More of the manifest destiny
- 49:29moment from the US. It also shows how how
- 49:33intertwined all this is, all this dynamics are are there as
- 49:38alive as they were 100 years from now.
- 49:41They were just dormant in a sense.
- 49:44So what is the attitude of Brazil?
- 49:47Brazil is one of the the the biggest countries in Latin
- 49:50America and and for for some odd reason Brazil has some kind of
- 49:54testy relationship with government of Venezuela.
- 49:58What is the current stance during this confrontation?
- 50:03No, it's a very principal one up to this point, you know, but up
- 50:08to this point, there's a, it's a principle one Lula tried to
- 50:11offer himself to mediate between the US and and Venezuela.
- 50:15That didn't go too well. They are, of course they could,
- 50:19They also condemn the, the means and the, the extrajudicial
- 50:23killings and so forth. But I don't know they can
- 50:27always, the problem with Rasina, from my point of view, of
- 50:30course, is that they can always go further and be more decisive
- 50:34in the interaction. And they don't, they don't do
- 50:36that. Some people will usually blame
- 50:40Itamarati, which is how they call the foreign Ministry, which
- 50:42is a very, very powerful entity in Venezuelan politics in
- 50:46general. And of course, obviously on the
- 50:48foreign policy, it has been Itamarati's insiders, the one
- 50:51that actually prevented Venezuela and Nicaragua to join
- 50:54BRICS, to become BRICS of service in Kasan a year ago in
- 51:002024, October 2024 or November, somewhere around that date.
- 51:04So and it's contradictory. And also they were very, very
- 51:08close to the Democrats. That was also a big problem.
- 51:13And you have also said Samarine, which is the advisor, one of the
- 51:17main advisors of Lula, who was back in the day, he was Minister
- 51:21of Defence and also was a foreign minister also who by now
- 51:27it's, I don't know if I don't know if there's, if something
- 51:30has actually changed or this has been his true callers all the
- 51:33time. But for example, for example, he
- 51:35has been quite vocal about, yeah, we use bricks, but we all
- 51:38use bricks to put pressure and to put a balance to the G20,
- 51:42which is our source of inspiration.
- 51:44And I'm quoting here, the last words are, I mean, they're
- 51:48verbatim, you know, that's what he said.
- 51:51So you have that problem there. That that's, that's a sense I
- 51:55got when I was talking with Brazilian journalist Pepe
- 51:59Escobar. I asked him, you know, what's
- 52:01the deal with between Brazil and Venezuela?
- 52:03And he was telling me it's not Lula, It's the people in Lula's
- 52:07government that's really, you know, trying to put a damper on
- 52:11the, on the relationship because they are, they're still a very
- 52:15strong kind of Leo liberal wing of in the, in the Brazilian
- 52:20government that, that lean toward United States, you know,
- 52:24despite, but that might change. But he at that time we, we spoke
- 52:28before the but he said that that might change because of tariff
- 52:32war and all that. Yeah, exactly.
- 52:35I mean, but my and Pepe's right. But I would add to some extent
- 52:40with her when it starts to when it ends to be the Intamara
- 52:45people and when it starts to be actually Lula, the one actually
- 52:48using these people to, you know, to do this.
- 52:50I mean, it's just a question. I mean, I'm not saying I know,
- 52:53but I do bring that question as well into this.
- 52:57And yeah, not only pro US in that sense, but also Liberal
- 53:01Democrat kind of, you know, proximity and when.
- 53:07And these are the positive result that you also have the
- 53:09proceeding left, which involves some, some I think.
- 53:14So it may or might be heretical about what I'm saying.
- 53:17But from a nationalist popular standard of very strong third
- 53:21world ish Communist Party with experienced in, in World War 2,
- 53:24by the way, fighting fascism and also in the French Resistance,
- 53:27it was a very strong Brazilian component.
- 53:29So it's so it's not just a simple wokey ish left.
- 53:35It has also Christian elements and so on.
- 53:37And that's actually the alliance that would have created by the
- 53:40PT afterwards during the dictatorship years and and so
- 53:45on. And suddenly it became more like
- 53:47an academic, you know, liberal kind of left in, in places of
- 53:53power that are important. But also you, you can't be asked
- 53:57that me with Brazil after they what they went through with all
- 54:00the lover chapter. It was insanely destructive of
- 54:05the, of the Brazilian power, power projection and smart power
- 54:11projection. You know, it really they, they
- 54:14hit him real, they hit Brazil really hard in that in that
- 54:17moment. And they were able to rollback a
- 54:19lot of Brazil's strength. And I think they even have the
- 54:23Lula governments have and they, they movement hasn't recovered
- 54:26completely from those blows because they were really hard.
- 54:30I mean, they barely made it back, which is good, of course,
- 54:34but also, so they have to, what I'm trying to say here is that
- 54:37it is for them, it's a very complex situation in the, in, in
- 54:41also the the correlation of strength, it's complicated.
- 54:45I mean, they also have very strong plays.
- 54:48But one more time, Carl, I think if something kinetic actually
- 54:52happens, some outliers are going to happen as well in Brazil and
- 54:57other places. I mean, they're going to go get
- 55:00to be afraid, freak out, react in some way or another.
- 55:02I can't predict, but it's not going to be predictable.
- 55:05That's not for us or for them. For them, I'm saying the United
- 55:10States in this sense. And that's a common feat to all
- 55:13these countries. The other one, which is very
- 55:15important to run like finish the whole tour, I guess it's Mexico.
- 55:20Mexico, which is also in a very vulnerable situation because of
- 55:24I mean like for the famous Porfirio Diaz called you know,
- 55:28Porfirio has the long, long standing dictator in the early,
- 55:32late 19th century, early 20s, which say poor Mexico, so far
- 55:38from God, from God, yeah and too close and so close to the United
- 55:42States. So yeah, but they have again
- 55:47they also have a government that has been quite well
- 55:50nationalistic and also and also had they had since I'm low since
- 55:57Lopez Obrador before Claudius time of the current president.
- 56:01It has taken a very interesting drive in like regarding
- 56:05sovereignty, regarding their own Estrada doctrine, which is, you
- 56:08know, a very dynamic pro hemispheric, non interventionist
- 56:13foreign policy. And this also has helped out
- 56:15also to reshape the pressure points to many countries and
- 56:20also the complexities that they're facing now inside the
- 56:23government. But I think Scheinbaum has been
- 56:25very smart, very clever and very graceful the way she's been
- 56:28playing this crazy ass tango with the United States.
- 56:33But they're also at the crossing.
- 56:35I mean, some people, many people.
- 56:37And this brings us back to the start of this call.
- 56:41They ruled out Mexico and they thought Venezuela might be
- 56:43better as a as a win regarding the whole narco narrative.
- 56:47You know, that also explains that because many people are
- 56:49actually more interested in engaging militarily with the
- 56:54cartels allegedly inside Mexico. But they said it was going to be
- 56:59even more costly than a Venezuelan intervention and the
- 57:02Venezuelan intervention being costly also a base.
- 57:05And we can go back once again for the first question to the
- 57:08elements that were at play at that moment.
- 57:10You don't have a win with China. You don't have a win with
- 57:13Russia, Ukraine. You don't have a complete win
- 57:16regarding Gaza or Iran in that sense.
- 57:20And you don't have an Epstein win either.
- 57:23You know, you have also not enough domestic wins and just
- 57:26lost an election, by the way, or not a lost an election.
- 57:29But there was a it was a well, it was a it was a I'm losing the
- 57:36word, I mean the prefabricated US word for this.
- 57:38But you know, it wasn't, it sounded the alarm.
- 57:41You know, they might buy anything, which is not that
- 57:42relevant. But the Democrats come back.
- 57:45Yeah. So all those things are also
- 57:49operating this. So they thought they would
- 57:50Venezuela could be an easy win. That's and it.
- 57:54And also, it also reminds you of that Michael Le Dean quote, the
- 57:58famous 1, you know, the early neocons that sometimes the US
- 58:02has to push around or something like that, push around a little
- 58:04confusion, show the world who's boss, which is also a very, a
- 58:10very bad analytical mistake, which I think has to bring
- 58:16another crazy element to the whole equation, Carl.
- 58:19And because there are very strong similarities between the
- 58:21two structurally, which is Nigeria in this in this moment.
- 58:27You know, Venezuela, it's drugs and terrorism, the merging of
- 58:31those paradigms. In the case of Nigeria,
- 58:34supposedly it's the Christian massacres by Boko Haram or other
- 58:39takfiri, you know, narco Islamic outfits.
- 58:45And it just so happens in both places, China has placed a lot
- 58:49of investment and that that and and and and both cases that US
- 58:52was freaking out about those Chinese investments.
- 58:56Yeah, exactly. Suddenly, suddenly United States
- 58:59need to do protect and serve and, and in both places, yeah.
- 59:03Yeah, exactly. I mean you have and also I mean
- 59:06Nigeria as Venezuela are both petrol states.
- 59:09They have very similar build up, you know, and how the and
- 59:15historical evolution, regardless of the also very different ones,
- 59:18you know, even in size, I mean, they're like almost the same
- 59:21size. Also.
- 59:22I think Venezuela is a big larger and but it's, it's like
- 59:26quite obscene in August. There's there are other
- 59:28elements, for example, which also relates to Venezuela's
- 59:31recovery also. And but I'm talking about
- 59:33Nigeria as as a way to explain it.
- 59:36You have the whole, you have this guy Dangote, you know, this
- 59:40a very powerful billionaire that had just built the refinery.
- 59:44It's the first time Nigeria is actually refining their own
- 59:46crude for their own consumption ever.
- 59:50You know, those are independent, very independent moves by yeah,
- 59:53but in this case by a very nationalist businessman who
- 59:55knows that well, he can keep up with his national feelings, you
- 59:59know, at the same time make a lot of good money.
- 1:00:02And that is also a problem there, I think.
- 1:00:05And you have another layer to this which is also geopolitical,
- 1:00:07I think, which is. The Muslims in Nigeria are the
- 1:00:12northern Nigerians, right? Right.
- 1:00:14Like the house, predominantly. And what do you have at the
- 1:00:17other side of the border? You have Niger and you have the
- 1:00:22Sahel and you have the houses at the other part of the border.
- 1:00:24So it goes in many directions with the same purpose, I might
- 1:00:29add, you know, and, and yeah, because it's based on very
- 1:00:33inaccurate, bogus reasons. Yes, Boko Haram is killing
- 1:00:35Christians, but also it's killing Shias.
- 1:00:38It is also clean, clean and also Sunni.
- 1:00:41They're killing everyone. So it's not it's.
- 1:00:44A Boko Haram and IAS situation in the host Sahel region is
- 1:00:48caused by United States when they overthrew Kadap.
- 1:00:51In the first time. In the first time.
- 1:00:54Yeah, there's all these, they supported all these terrorists
- 1:00:57to overthrow jihadi and then all these terrorists got their hands
- 1:01:00on the, on the other web arsenals of, of Libya and then
- 1:01:05flooded into the Sahel region. And now suddenly this the whole
- 1:01:10Sahel region is destabilised and suddenly the US and French
- 1:01:13military have more reasons to deploy there to serve and
- 1:01:18protect. Yeah, it it's, it's the cycle
- 1:01:21just goes on. And And yeah, but and now this
- 1:01:24brings back another, another colourful element to this.
- 1:01:28We're talking about, about, about, you know, what happens in
- 1:01:33fundamentalism in al Qaeda, right?
- 1:01:37And now you have. Former head of Al Qaeda Syria
- 1:01:41just met Trump in the White House.
- 1:01:43This. Guy had a 10. $1,000,000 bounty
- 1:01:46on him as late as last year. Yeah, exactly.
- 1:01:50And, and The funny thing is that Pete Hegseth, the war secretary
- 1:01:55reality showman, says that the, that the drug, the Norco
- 1:02:02terrorists are the new Al Qaeda and we're going to kill you and
- 1:02:04we're going to hunt you down. And, you know, America, Fuck
- 1:02:07yeah. And FAFAO and, and everything.
- 1:02:10And at the same time, they're receiving the actual thing, you
- 1:02:15know, the actual guy that at the Oval Office.
- 1:02:20I mean, it's just insane. Because another easy conclusion
- 1:02:25is that there's not, this is not even post truth.
- 1:02:29This is just fuck you reality. This is nihilism at its best.
- 1:02:34And nothing matters any more than the urgent need to face
- 1:02:42decline, the threats of decline, you know, and that's of course,
- 1:02:47that's also part of it, which also brings, it also has like
- 1:02:50this all shows a very cognitive, 1A cognitive decline going on at
- 1:02:55the same time with an empire and how they see things and how they
- 1:02:58can see the solutions. And there's no other more
- 1:03:02dangerous element of the client that the Chinese presence in in
- 1:03:05the Caribbean and the multipolar presence in general.
- 1:03:09And that's why they have to rebuild the I'm just going to
- 1:03:13say one more time and say this all the time in each and every
- 1:03:15interview of the hemispheric wall, you know, push out all
- 1:03:18these players and reassure and re bring all the industry and
- 1:03:23their capitals and what not in order to be able to survive, you
- 1:03:28know, to survive. Basically they ask the entity
- 1:03:31they think they are right now. I mean in order to survive, in
- 1:03:39order for the American primacy to survive.
- 1:03:42I mean American average. American can still.
- 1:03:45Survive without an empire, not not a prime.
- 1:03:48Exactly just. Like the like the British after
- 1:03:52the giving up the the the British Empire, average American
- 1:03:55can't also have survive and have good life.
- 1:03:58But for for the military industrial complex to survive,
- 1:04:02they must have primacy. They must pivot from one war to
- 1:04:06another and the perpetual war must go on.
- 1:04:09And I think they just think to pick Venezuela because they
- 1:04:12thought Venezuela might be a low hanging fruit, you know, because
- 1:04:16that Trump, that's what Trump like to do.
- 1:04:19Trump like to pick low hanging fruit.
- 1:04:20But I think this time they will find themselves pick a rock
- 1:04:24instead. I mean, it's not Venezuela.
- 1:04:27It's not a low hang apple. It's it's a rock.
- 1:04:30It's a granite. They're going to they're going
- 1:04:32to kick it and then hurt their feet.
- 1:04:34I think that's what's going to happen.
- 1:04:36Yeah, hopefully, hopefully, you know, and then and then I think
- 1:04:41to sum it up, it brings another dimensional layer, which is
- 1:04:47because the Gaza paradigm, it's also now it's operating in, in,
- 1:04:52in the Western Hemisphere to a different level.
- 1:04:55Not only on the obvious, as in the the low, insanely low value
- 1:05:01of, of life, you know, of human life.
- 1:05:05And, and they mean the legal implications of this.
- 1:05:07They call it, they call it all these these sea people who have
- 1:05:11been killed in the, in speedboats, in small boats.
- 1:05:13They call it unprivileged belligerents.
- 1:05:16You know, I mean, you don't have a, you're nothing and you're
- 1:05:21basically and and you know this. This is just a cover.
- 1:05:24This is just a cover for very illegality of U.S.
- 1:05:28Navy killing people because this is not, this is not legal
- 1:05:31anywhere US. This is I mean 2 to enter.
- 1:05:35Even if we accept their narrative, these are drug
- 1:05:38smuggling boats which are bogus. It's U.S.
- 1:05:41Navy Coast Guard's job to intercept those boats.
- 1:05:46Coming. Into the US waters, it's not US
- 1:05:49Navy's job going to other people's waters or international
- 1:05:54waters to kill people. That's that's that there's no
- 1:05:58laws that allows for that kind of thing.
- 1:06:00So so. No.
- 1:06:01And the other thing, which is I think it's and also has
- 1:06:03dangerous regarding gas and regarding what's and yeah,
- 1:06:07Lebanon and regarding Israel in that sense also, it's now how
- 1:06:11this all high tech stuff and how the surveillance stuff is also
- 1:06:14being used here, you know, as in the tech Bros also taking up
- 1:06:18their own their own share of this situation.
- 1:06:21You know, it's not easy to, it's not hard, sorry to imagine where
- 1:06:26the objective banks are being or how they are being organised,
- 1:06:29how they have been analyse how the information is being picked
- 1:06:32up in order to to quote unquote, plan what they're going to do or
- 1:06:37these attacks or whatever. I mean, and then there's another
- 1:06:40obvious reasons, just like Exxon and other and other people,
- 1:06:43which is these oligarchs needs as much energy as possible in
- 1:06:47order to keep the edge on wherever they're actually able
- 1:06:52to keep the edge regarding AI and so on.
- 1:06:55And also, of course, population control, this has to do with
- 1:06:59that as well, Carl, you know, it, it, it's, it's like the
- 1:07:03final layer of this. I think that you might hit the
- 1:07:09nail on the head there, because all the Telicon Silicon Valley
- 1:07:13tech bro who, who essentially took over the White House with,
- 1:07:15you know, Peter Thiel and and, and Andy, Elon Musk and the and
- 1:07:20these guys, yeah, Palantir, which is basically embedded in
- 1:07:24the US government right now. They are designing AI weapons
- 1:07:28for, for US to wage war. So they're fully embedded.
- 1:07:32Yeah. They're, they're part of the
- 1:07:33military industrial complex now. It's, it's not, not just
- 1:07:37military industrial complex, it's the Mickey Mouse, the
- 1:07:39military intelligence, industrial, academic
- 1:07:44congressional complex. And they all have a vet vested
- 1:07:50interest to grow the AI bubble, which means to feed the AI
- 1:07:54bubble, they need to build more data centres.
- 1:07:56And those data centre needs to feed a lot and lots of energy.
- 1:08:02And where's those energy going to come from?
- 1:08:05And Trump has already decided, you know, we're, we're going to
- 1:08:08ditch the whole renewable thing. Where's this going to go?
- 1:08:114 hydrocarbons. That means US must get his hands
- 1:08:16on all the hydrocarbon resources in its hemisphere.
- 1:08:20You know, Venezuela has a world's largest oil reserve and,
- 1:08:23and it just so happens that Venezuelan crude matches
- 1:08:27perfectly to the US refineries in the southern coast and, and,
- 1:08:33and they can afford to have those Venezuelan crude go to
- 1:08:37China. For them, it's a 0 sum
- 1:08:40mentality. If China gets their hands on
- 1:08:43Venezuelan oil, that's less oil for for US.
- 1:08:46So we can't have. That absolutely.
- 1:08:48I mean, and yeah, you also said something that's in that people
- 1:08:52are not that aware of, but they the whole, there's a huge and
- 1:08:55very important refining circuit in southern, central, southern
- 1:09:00US that relies exclusively on Venezuelan heavy crude.
- 1:09:04So you do have that. I mean, you can't, it's not like
- 1:09:07we're not going to, we're just going to substitute with
- 1:09:09something else. We're just going to do
- 1:09:10something, you know, you can't. It's exclusively designed for
- 1:09:13this. So yeah, I mean, and also think
- 1:09:16this is like the bad, the bad term situation with us.
- 1:09:19But think about what's had just happened in what, what's already
- 1:09:21going on in Bolivia, in Argentina and what just happened
- 1:09:24in Bolivia with the electoral defeat from the, of the, of the
- 1:09:28massacre movement in, in government.
- 1:09:32This is about lithium and it's also about finishing pushing out
- 1:09:36the Chinese and the Russians and any other player that's not the
- 1:09:39US. Because the northern triangle
- 1:09:41there, the triangle there between the lithium triangle
- 1:09:44between Chile, Argentina and Bolivia's like the biggest
- 1:09:47deposits, at least with the nearest ones at least, you know.
- 1:09:52So that's also, that's also part of the reshaping.
- 1:09:54But they can do that by other means.
- 1:09:56Electoral defeat, complete and full control of the government.
- 1:10:00We're just placing a a lunatic at at its helm and just bailing
- 1:10:05him out as much as he need, they need.
- 1:10:08So it's the same and it's the same threat, the same Russian
- 1:10:11and the same purpose. But I would say, I would say US
- 1:10:15is fighting a, a battle of reaction.
- 1:10:19They're, they're lashing out because they see what, what they
- 1:10:22see as a pink washing of Latin America, you know, always all
- 1:10:26these leftist government popping up everywhere from Mexico to to
- 1:10:31Colombia, all these traditional US allies, quote unquote.
- 1:10:36And then they This is why they must pop up Millie and must give
- 1:10:41him $40 billion because that's one of the last poster child for
- 1:10:47US liberalism. I mean, you know, for, for, for,
- 1:10:50for Zionism. So they must not let Millie
- 1:10:53fail. But but I think it's this is
- 1:10:57ongoing thing, of course. But I think overall, you know,
- 1:11:01US is fighting a lot. They're, they're, they're
- 1:11:05fighting the tide of the history, the progress, the, the
- 1:11:08trend of progress because there's, there's Latin America
- 1:11:12has such long history with United States and they, they're
- 1:11:14frankly sick and tired of it. Absolutely.
- 1:11:17And you know, I was thinking now you mentioned all this, I was
- 1:11:20thinking something else. You know Rubio and his reports,
- 1:11:23especially the made in China 2025 reports what he did in
- 1:11:2629/20/18 and they won last year. Nine years later, when he even
- 1:11:30admits there are several of the 12 strategic areas that they
- 1:11:34that he focuses on the well, the the 12 strategic areas of of the
- 1:11:38made in made in China 2025. And there he already admits and
- 1:11:43in some it's irreversible. In some they're lagging behind
- 1:11:48and in some of these, they they still keep some of the edge.
- 1:11:51But The funny thing is, and it's something that repeats itself in
- 1:11:54several articles and his last book, the most recent book, and
- 1:11:57also on law and piece of pieces of legislation is that this
- 1:12:02losing of the this loss of edge is losing of the edge we're
- 1:12:07going to bring. If we don't do something, we're
- 1:12:09going to have a century of humiliation.
- 1:12:12They use, he uses, he exactly uses it that way.
- 1:12:15I mean, of course Global Times picked it up at some point and
- 1:12:18said Marco Rubio, the head was like, Marco Rubio is a political
- 1:12:21weirdo, you know, because of because of framing it in that
- 1:12:25sense. You know what?
- 1:12:26I think the United States needs its own central humiliation,
- 1:12:30too, to counteract some of that hubris.
- 1:12:34I mean, like, because right now it's because US still, it's full
- 1:12:40of hubris. It cannot see its own
- 1:12:43shortcomings and the problems. That's why it's keep on lashing
- 1:12:46out at the world now with the with the real century of
- 1:12:50humiliation that might finally bring on some self reflection by
- 1:12:56its elite, you know? They humbled it up.
- 1:12:59Exactly. That's it.
- 1:13:02That's true. You're right about that.
- 1:13:04Completely right. And I mean, it's very well
- 1:13:07earned by the way. It didn't have to happen this
- 1:13:10way, you know, But that's the thing about Herbies, like you
- 1:13:13just said. It's self inflicted.
- 1:13:17A lot of the US internal problem is all self inflicted.
- 1:13:22And The thing is right now the empire is coming home to roost.
- 1:13:28You know, the way that US used to treat people of Latin
- 1:13:33America, now the US elite is treating their own citizens the
- 1:13:37same way that the US elite is looking at the average people of
- 1:13:41US also as the resource for like raw material for resource
- 1:13:47extraction to extract to the 1%. So, you know, they, they.
- 1:13:52Yeah. Yeah, it's it's colonialism one
- 1:13:54O 1. I mean, and if if you if you,
- 1:14:00it's always a very, very Seminole document.
- 1:14:02What a messe, the Martin Aiken poet and writer wrote back in it
- 1:14:07was, I think it was the 50s. It's called the discourse on
- 1:14:12colonialism, which one of the basic the most important
- 1:14:15premises was it was all right as long as Hitler was in, you know,
- 1:14:20southern Southwest Africa or Indochina or China itself or
- 1:14:25Latin America, wherever. But then it come when suddenly
- 1:14:31several years afterwards, Hitler was basically knocking your door
- 1:14:35because that's the same Hitler that was outside, you know, the
- 1:14:38doing what doing what they did. This is the same principle 11
- 1:14:41more time and based on the same rationale and the same urgency.
- 1:14:45So it's it's devastating how those things actually hold up.
- 1:14:48So, so strongly. But at the same times it has all
- 1:14:52this, I mean we have an hour already, an hour and 15 minutes
- 1:14:56of complexities to it. I mean, how many kaleidoscopical
- 1:15:00elements It has to admit maybe because we just big nerds on
- 1:15:04this and we're following each and every nook and cranny we can
- 1:15:06see. But but it shows you how
- 1:15:08complex, but at the same way how devastating simple this, all
- 1:15:11this. And of course the end, one of
- 1:15:14the final stages of colonialism is what's it's self infliction,
- 1:15:17It's it's self harm. It's what's happening right now.
- 1:15:20Yeah, imperial, yeah, imperialism is what the final
- 1:15:25stage of capitalism, right. I mean like we are we are
- 1:15:29getting to the to the very late stage capitalism here in US.
- 1:15:35And this has been a fascinating, fascinating conversation.
- 1:15:38I can geek out on this with you for for hours, but I like to
- 1:15:43respect your time. We I definitely would like to
- 1:15:46have you back because. Exactly.
- 1:15:52Yeah, it could be completely different.
- 1:15:55You know, it could be quite different than the next time we
- 1:15:57just have another talk. It actually is.
- 1:16:00I mean, it was already we, we, we, we talked two months ago and
- 1:16:04now it's very different. And and maybe we can do a quote,
- 1:16:07multi quote Monty Python, you know, and then for now for
- 1:16:10something completely different, you know, that could happen so
- 1:16:13easily. Yeah, well, we, I, I, well,
- 1:16:17let's, let's, let's hope for the best.
- 1:16:19And, and thank you very much, Diego, for making your time to,
- 1:16:24to speak to our audience. And I, I, I mean it when I say I
- 1:16:28very much would like to have you back in not so distant future to
- 1:16:33continue to discuss the ongoing US aggression toward an Israela,
- 1:16:37toward Latin America. Before you go, if people want to
- 1:16:41follow you on social media, where, where would they go?
- 1:16:44Where would they go? Yeah, first of all, they should
- 1:16:48visit the the site Mission verdadmisionverdad.com Mission
- 1:16:56Verdad transmission in Spanish. It's mostly in Spanish, but I
- 1:17:00think any decent AI translator can translate it quite not quite
- 1:17:03neatly myself, I'm on Twitter. They they also care.
- 1:17:07I think that's like the most go to place regardless of how
- 1:17:10inactive I seem to be there. And we also have Mission, but
- 1:17:13that whole has also a Telegram channel.
- 1:17:15You can you can look it for mission, but that which is also
- 1:17:17very, very active in Spanish most of the time.
- 1:17:20But it's very useful as well to follow especially.
- 1:17:23Yeah, this. It's a spanosphere, you know.
- 1:17:27So if you those are the go to places.
- 1:17:33Well, everyone followed Diego because he's the foremost expert
- 1:17:38on what's actually going on, on the ground in Latin America and
- 1:17:42we will have him on the back of the shows very soon.
- 1:17:46Thank you everyone for tuning in and come to you next time.
- 1:17:50Bye bye.