Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #55: Unsafe SAFEs, 15 Charts on the Future of VC, Big CPG Leveraging Gen AI, Sequoia Changes Guards
Transcript
- 0:00For early stage companies, there's always this tension around governance.
- 0:03I don't think most two person companies need a three hour monthly board meeting with minutes
- 0:09and attorneys.
- 0:10I also don't think no governance is the answer for most companies.
- 0:13The question is where do you wanna put that slider at any point in time?
- 0:17And what I find is the slider tends to be set closer to the preferences of the people who
- 0:22have power and leverage at the moment.
- 0:24It's the week of November 3.
- 0:26Welcome to the Learning Corner, a Precursor Ventures podcast.
- 0:33Welcome to the Learning Corner by Precursor.
- 0:35I'm Mia Farnam, and I'm joined by RGP and managing partner, Charles Hudson, where we will
- 0:40be talking through the articles and Goodreads that caught our team's attention over the past
- 0:45week.
- 0:46Our first piece is a post on x by Jason Lemkin sharing inside news that he watched three VCC
- 0:53deals this year where, quote, the founders just decided to keep the money for themselves and
- 0:59not build the product.
- 1:01Ultimately, Jason said that these were deals that had a lot of momentum and all were in the
- 1:06form of safes, where the founders took the position that they owed investors nothing as
- 1:11they never really had true converted equity due to the safeholder agreement.
- 1:16Jason ended the brief post saying that this is a reality of deals in the age of AI.
- 1:21Essentially, this truly dark side of explosive growth and hype in such concentrated period of
- 1:27time.
- 1:28So wanted to obviously hear your thoughts here, Charles.
- 1:31It reminded me I don't know.
- 1:34It was some time ago, there was a company called Toptal in the recruiting space that also
- 1:39people got their feathers ruffled because if I remember all the facts.
- 1:43Right?
- 1:43The CEO was like, hey.
- 1:44I'm just never gonna convert these safes.
- 1:46I'm not gonna raise the price around.
- 1:48And I always wondered this.
- 1:50You know, if you think about it, when SAFES first started, we used to do I mean, I feel old
- 1:53saying this to me.
- 1:54We used to do convertible notes.
- 1:56Yeah.
- 1:56And convertible notes had some good features, interest being one of them, like, you know,
- 2:01getting something for your money over time.
- 2:02But also convertible notes had a conversion date, which meant, hey, if at some point this
- 2:05hasn't converted, at least we have to have a conversation about what we're gonna do next.
- 2:10That conversation could be, let's just extend the notes.
- 2:13Let's just allow them to stay or let's convert them or hey, give me my money back.
- 2:17But there was a forcing function for that conversation that was time based.
- 2:21And I think for a lot of good reasons, I think YC said, look, these convertible notes, most
- 2:25people don't really want their money back.
- 2:27The convertible note is just sort of this instrument that is cheaper and faster than a
- 2:31priced equity round, and safe to make sense so long as you believe there will be a price round
- 2:36at some point in the future that will allow you to become an equity holder.
- 2:40But there are a couple scenarios you need to worry about.
- 2:42One is what if the company never raises a priced equity round and never exits?
- 2:48You end up with this, like, weird hybrid instrument.
- 2:50Or the more nefarious one is what if the founders take deliberate action to prevent or
- 2:54avoid ever converting because they don't want you to be a shareholder of the company or their
- 2:58control or governance provisions.
- 3:00And SAFEs don't really give you a lot of the traditional investor productions.
- 3:03Yes.
- 3:04You will get your money back in the event of a dissolution or wind down or distribution, but I
- 3:08think that it is just gonna be interesting to me to see what happens with these companies
- 3:11that rate and I don't know enough about the specific situations.
- 3:13Jason didn't go into the details.
- 3:15But I can imagine a what if you're a company, you raise 500 k on safes, you have some AI
- 3:20product that booms, you get to 10,000,000 in ARR, and you're like, don't wanna raise venture
- 3:24capital.
- 3:24So you got 10,000,000 in the bank.
- 3:26We don't have a new product.
- 3:27You know what I wanna do?
- 3:28I actually wanna dividend out this cash to common shareholders.
- 3:31And if you had a board or if you had preferred equity, like, some of the reasons that we did
- 3:36all this other stuff was for investor protections.
- 3:39In a world where everybody agrees that, like, the safe is an interim instrument that will be
- 3:43used until the company can get to a price round of that, everything works fine.
- 3:47When people start to think about safes as different and figure out, like, well, how can I
- 3:51use this to my advantage?
- 3:52There are many ways beyond the ones Jason mentioned that a founder could use safe survey.
- 3:56But for me, the so what is we're not going back.
- 3:59I don't think we're going back to a world where we use convertible notes.
- 4:02I don't think we're going back to a world unless someone can make the world's cheapest
- 4:06price round process, which I don't I don't think is gonna happen anytime soon even with
- 4:11standardized docs.
- 4:12I think this is part of the risk you take as an investor when you sign a safe is a belief that
- 4:17the founder has the right intentions about eventually having you become a shareholder
- 4:22because that's what most investors want.
- 4:24We talked internally yesterday about the difference between nefarious activities Mhmm.
- 4:29On behalf of the founder versus just being irresponsible with cash management.
- 4:35Yeah.
- 4:35It's a fine line when you think about it, but then when you're talking about specific
- 4:39examples, I feel like it was easy for me to compartmentalize, like, that's nefarious.
- 4:43That's irresponsible.
- 4:44Yeah.
- 4:44How do you, I guess, hedge where things could possibly head if you feel like you're already
- 4:49seeing inklings of similar types of behaviors in either spectrum?
- 4:53Think for early stage companies, there's always this tension around governance.
- 4:57I don't think most two person companies need a three hour monthly board meeting with minutes
- 5:03and attorneys.
- 5:04It's a gross misuse of time.
- 5:06I also don't think no governance is the answer for most companies unless the founders are
- 5:11incredibly experienced and can be trusted.
- 5:14And the question is where do you wanna put that slider at any point in time?
- 5:17And what I find is the slider tends to be set closer to the preferences of the people who
- 5:22have power and leverage at the moment.
- 5:24So in 2020, there was no governance because founders had all the power.
- 5:28Then in 2022, there was a lot more governance because investors were like, I just got burned
- 5:33on a bunch of 100 x ARR deals, and now I have the power because capital is hard to get.
- 5:39So I'm gonna be tighter on this stuff.
- 5:41I'm gonna require more of companies reporting and burn ratio and all the blog posts that we
- 5:45wrote that nobody listens to any.
- 5:47And now we're back in a moment where founders have power.
- 5:50And as I talked about to our team, I think there's a really big difference between
- 5:55ambitiously getting an office that's too big for you because you deep down believe you're
- 6:00gonna grow into it, and you wanna send a signal to candidates that we're a company that's going
- 6:04places and spending $50,000 on the corporate amex at Nobu taking all of your friends to
- 6:10dinner once a week for a year.
- 6:11Those two things to me are, like, categorically different uses of both of which you could argue
- 6:16are suboptimal, but one I think is coming from a place of putting the company first, and the
- 6:21other one is probably closer to self enrichment.
- 6:23Well, hopes that none of these deals fall within any of our friends' laps.
- 6:28Yes.
- 6:28More to come there.
- 6:29Our next piece written by Ruben Dominguez on his Substack, The VC Corner, walks through 15
- 6:35charts that explain how tech and venture are changing in 2025.
- 6:39He shares 15 different graphics that show concepts like Chatuchi BT retention patterns,
- 6:44VC career progression, and job opening rates mapped to foundational model launches.
- 6:49Ultimately, the piece is created to give a wide range of updates on the current state of
- 6:53venture through a more visual lens.
- 6:55I thought a lot of the charts were really interesting.
- 6:57The first one that jumped out to me was the Vibe Coding Growth heat map.
- 7:02It listed really well known developer tools like Lovable, Replit, Cursor, Cognition, and
- 7:08others on the vertical axis, and then mapped across a twelve week timeline and beyond for
- 7:13growth.
- 7:14And a couple callouts stood out.
- 7:15Base 44 saw 900% growth, but then cooled off within weeks.
- 7:21Lovable had a similar trajectory with more than 200% early growth, but then significant
- 7:25stagnation by week 16.
- 7:28The big takeaway was that developers in this category tend to test pay and then churn faster
- 7:33than almost any other space.
- 7:35So retention is really going to be the key differentiator for whoever wins here.
- 7:38Curious if you had any thoughts on that specific chart there.
- 7:42I was teaching yesterday, and we had a guest lecturer who one of our students asked her the
- 7:48same question.
- 7:48She said, we're always asking ourself, is this a sugar high business?
- 7:51And I think that's a good analogy.
- 7:53And right now, we're in this very weird moment in venture where privately every GP I know is
- 7:58we're not sure what the retention curves are gonna look like for these products, but it's
- 8:02asymmetric.
- 8:02If these retention curves turn out to be terrible, we will lose our money, but we will
- 8:07have invested in a hot company.
- 8:08If the retention curves turn out to be good, then we've got a winner on our hands.
- 8:12And the asymmetry of being in the winners is so great that a lot of people are like, the
- 8:16retention will be what it will be, and we'll find out what it is when we find out.
- 8:20In the meantime, let's go.
- 8:21And my experience, and it's anic data more than anything, is the coding tools seem to be a
- 8:27little bit stickier.
- 8:28And I think this intuitively makes sense, which is if you're a professional developer, my hunch
- 8:33is you are using an AI code assistant every day as part of your workflow, whether it's Cloud
- 8:38Code, whether it's Cursor, whether it's whatever tool you're using.
- 8:42Whereas, my hunch is that the vibe coding app building things are more episodic, and that
- 8:47unless you're a product manager who's constantly building prototypes you know, I told
- 8:51somebody, it reminds me of, like, website builders.
- 8:54You know, every time you get so, web pipe builders, we're gonna democratize it, and we're
- 8:58gonna make everyone able to make a website.
- 9:00Most people don't need a website or they they have a plate.
- 9:02They don't need to update it more than once a year.
- 9:04So a website builder creates more websites, but it doesn't necessarily create more valuable
- 9:08websites.
- 9:08And so I wonder for some of these coding tools, the churn isn't a product issue.
- 9:12It's just most people don't have an ongoing need to build stuff.
- 9:15They built something because they wanted to learn the experience.
- 9:17They built something because it was fun, but they don't need it every day.
- 9:20Whereas I use Cloud Desktop 100 I'm like a seven of seven daily active user because it's
- 9:27something I use as part of my workflow all day long, multiple times per day.
- 9:31And I think we're gonna I think we're gonna and it's funny.
- 9:33We learn this with mobile too.
- 9:35Eventually, learn, hey.
- 9:36There's certain apps where good usage is daily.
- 9:39There are certain apps that are just episodic, and there's nothing you can do by, like, growth
- 9:43hacking or weird dark arts.
- 9:45It's just that people only have so much need for this app.
- 9:48And the question is when they need it, do they pick yours?
- 9:50Yeah.
- 9:51I was at a demo day over the past year, and I was sitting with friends.
- 9:56And we commented, I wanna try all these tools, but I don't wanna invest
- 10:01in
- 10:01most And of I think that's the reality of for every wonderful developer tool that you see in
- 10:06the news that, like, raises at a mass evaluation, there are 20 of them that didn't
- 10:11make it through because it was more episodic or maybe didn't even reach that episodic
- 10:15inflection point at all and didn't have that heat in any way.
- 10:19The second graph that I really liked was around VC career progression, which highlighted that
- 10:24sixty five percent of junior VCs lead the industry within ten years and only twenty three
- 10:29percent make it to partner.
- 10:31And while I know that some of that is obviously people being pushed out of the space because of
- 10:35performance, I've noticed a surprising number of peers that I know who have left or seriously
- 10:41considering leaving even when that path to partner is really available to them.
- 10:45And I was talking about this with a really close friend who was in venture, then left,
- 10:50went back to operating.
- 10:51And we were talking about what this conundrum looks like, and the decision seems to come down
- 10:55to two key questions that we thought about.
- 10:57One, am I at a fund that can attract capital long enough for me to make partner if I earn
- 11:03that spot?
- 11:04And then the second question, which I feel like it's more pervasive, is do I respect and
- 11:09believe in my partners currently enough to actually want to be there long term from a
- 11:13quality of life standpoint?
- 11:15So I wanted to know if you had any thoughts on this one as well.
- 11:18I saw that chart and I was like, if you'd ask me what percentage, I would have said 10, not
- 11:2320 I would have said it's like much lower.
- 11:25So that's a good thing, I think.
- 11:27I think when it comes to venture, I think we're still like a stone age business when it comes
- 11:31to succession, promotion, all these things.
- 11:34Part of this, I think, is we still have a surprising number of early stage firms that are
- 11:38on original leadership.
- 11:39And I think we will find out very soon who's good at you know, some of the bigger firms,
- 11:44Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins, they've had to navigate leadership transitions.
- 11:49I mean, I think it's interesting.
- 11:50The second biggest firm in our industry, Andreessen Horowitz, has never had a
- 11:54significant leadership transition at the top.
- 11:55I don't think Mark or Ben have plans to stop doing what they do anytime soon.
- 12:00So that that's one thing.
- 12:01And I think what I've learned is and I think about this a lot.
- 12:05If you're gonna run a venture firm, you have to do two things.
- 12:07You have to find really good people, and you have to figure out how to create space for
- 12:10them.
- 12:10And sometimes the space that people want is more than the space that's available.
- 12:15And sometimes people get to the top and they go, well, I don't wanna sit at that table.
- 12:19I want a different table.
- 12:20I wanna be somewhere else.
- 12:21I've been interested in, like, just the number of particular female GP friends of mine who've
- 12:26left the industry recently.
- 12:27Some to go to operating, some to go off and do their own venture firms, some just to take a
- 12:32break.
- 12:33And it's funny.
- 12:34The information feedback cycles in venture have gotten far more warped than when I started
- 12:38twenty years ago.
- 12:39Twenty years ago, like, companies went public.
- 12:41You kinda knew in five to seven years if you were pretty good.
- 12:44Also, was less capital and there was less hype.
- 12:46So, yes, we had bubbles and, yes, companies got ahead of themselves, but not like today.
- 12:50Today, it's really like, I don't know how if I were, like, a an associate at a firm, I don't
- 12:54know how it would make sense of whether I'm doing a good job.
- 12:56What if I'm in a bunch of buzzy AI companies that are just buzzy but not good?
- 13:00Or conversely, what if I'm in a bunch of good companies that are compounding but nobody cares
- 13:03because they're not the thing du jour?
- 13:05And two years later when I leave, it's gonna turn out that, like, those companies were
- 13:10amazing and just nobody knew in the moment.
- 13:12And so I think this is a really big structural industry issue that we haven't really done a
- 13:18great job of training and developing the next generation of leaders.
- 13:22And I think that was fine when this was a cottage industry that didn't manage a lot of
- 13:26money.
- 13:27But I look at the amount of palace intrigue that happens at big PE firms and buyout shops
- 13:31where my friends were.
- 13:32Yeah.
- 13:32You could argue with political, and it's maybe not a pleasant process.
- 13:35But it seems to be pretty effective at figuring out who is the relatively small subset of
- 13:40people who are interested in and capable of running these complicated asset management
- 13:44firms that are like running big consultancies or law firms or you're running a big white
- 13:49collar knowledge workforce.
- 13:50I would bet a lot of money that the next ten years of promotion and talent management at
- 13:56Venture will look very different than the last forty.
- 13:58It just feels like a big reshift.
- 14:01And then lump that in with what's happening on, I think, lot of my more junior friends who sit
- 14:05at other funds who maybe were like one or two years into venture, look around at the current
- 14:09landscape with an AI and say, I actually wanna go in that right now because I can take the
- 14:14risk.
- 14:14I've got the time.
- 14:15I wanna run it this fast.
- 14:16I don't wanna spend it being third party.
- 14:18I wanna be out there building, and so I'm seeing people leave for that reason.
- 14:22A handful of them are top performers at their funds that I know that their firms so it's lots
- 14:26of things happening at once, and it's one thing that I know a lot of our friends have talked
- 14:29about is mentorship in venture is such a fascinating concept.
- 14:33I think some of the best mentors I've ever had have also been at the peer level at other
- 14:37funds.
- 14:38The only people who are living and experiencing venture in the same way you are are probably
- 14:41experiencing in today's world.
- 14:43People who were senior associates five years ago aren't facing what you are today.
- 14:48Our next topic is yet another public company announcing a massive investment in generative
- 14:52AI.
- 14:53Oreo maker Mondelez shared they are investing 40,000,000 into a tool that they have been
- 14:57developing alongside Publicis Group and Accenture to cut ad production costs of
- 15:02marketing content by up to 50%.
- 15:05Like many other CPG companies, in the wave of tariffs and shifting consumer budgets,
- 15:10marketing ad spend balloons and can eat a considerable amount of the bottom line for a
- 15:15company that relies on volume of eyeballs on their product via ads and media.
- 15:20They are going to start leveraging the tool to create social media for Chips Ahoy products and
- 15:24will start leveraging it for product pages on Amazon and Walmart this month.
- 15:29Similarly, competitors like Kraft and Coca Cola have also been public about their use of AI in
- 15:34advertising.
- 15:35In fact, Coke ran an AI created holiday ad last year that drew some criticism from consumers
- 15:43for lacking real emotion.
- 15:45I did actually watch this ad, and to me, it just felt more like a failure of solid
- 15:49storyboarding than an issue with the use of AI, though those probably aren't very connected.
- 15:55Is this just another case of a public company trying to signal innovation to shareholders, or
- 16:00from your perspective, does it reflect a genuine shift towards overhauling cost
- 16:03structures in prep for the future?
- 16:05I think it can be both.
- 16:07I think in the same way I I rolled a lot back in the February, it's like some companies are
- 16:12we're building a website.
- 16:13I'm like, well, good for you.
- 16:14You should have a presence on the Internet.
- 16:16You also shouldn't get a cookie for building a website.
- 16:18You should no pun intended, like, put Oreo.
- 16:19But you shouldn't get a cookie.
- 16:20That's just part of business.
- 16:21And I think we're still at the curve where I think companies, to some extent, wanna signal
- 16:25how forward thinking they are.
- 16:27In two years, people if you make this announcement, people are like, well, what were
- 16:30you doing for the last two years if you're just not announcing the age bonus?
- 16:33And I think it's interesting.
- 16:34You always get this cycle with big companies where when the individual products are
- 16:39immature, you go to your favorite consulting partner and have them help you build something
- 16:43that's bespoke, that meets your needs.
- 16:46And when I read it, I winced a little bit, which is not because the firms involved aren't
- 16:50good, but the history of these kind of things is always that they are an interim step toward
- 16:54a better future.
- 16:55And sometimes you have to take that interim step to get to the future.
- 16:58Everyone's like, oh, I wanna skip the, like, consultant, homegrown, in house thing.
- 17:02And I'm like, well, sometimes you don't get the luxury of skipping that.
- 17:05Yeah.
- 17:05You have to go through that to get to the other side because the thing you want doesn't exist
- 17:08yet.
- 17:09Well, that was my next question is Accenture is obviously a well known consulting firm.
- 17:12Most people think that it's one of the first businesses to be disrupted by AI consulting.
- 17:17But what I'm seeing is kind of the opposite.
- 17:19You'll see a big AI project announcement and insert your consulting firm here at the helm of
- 17:23it, and they're managing the large scale AI transformation projects across the multimillion
- 17:28dollar deployments across the world.
- 17:30And so the question is, how sustainable is this model of big consulting firms acting as a go to
- 17:35AI guides for companies, especially when the space itself is still early and evolving?
- 17:39And I've worked in consulting, so I let you know what the job is.
- 17:42I was in consulting, I would wanna be running all these projects too.
- 17:45I think whenever someone says so and so's job is gonna be taken by AI, I'm like I always ask
- 17:49myself, does this person actually understand what that job is?
- 17:52I think if you think the job of consulting is to produce strategy slide decks, you don't
- 17:57actually understand what consultants do inside of companies.
- 18:00And so if you're just like, oh, well, like, could produce this strategy slide deck with
- 18:03ChatGPT.
- 18:04Why do I need to hire McKinsey or Deloitte or Accenture?
- 18:07You're not hiring them just for that.
- 18:09Hiring them to do a bunch of other things that are at the we we could we could have a long
- 18:12talk about political air cover.
- 18:14Sometimes you do need humans to help you manage change management for other humans.
- 18:19And as far as I can tell, there aren't really great AI tools that can do that yet.
- 18:22So I think we're gonna continue to find these ironies where people say, oh, AI is gonna
- 18:27destroy this category of work, and we're gonna turn out that it, like, actually increases the
- 18:31demand for it for some period of time.
- 18:33Last piece here is more of a news blast.
- 18:36Recent TechCrunch article by Marina Temkin announced that Roloff Bota, the senior steward
- 18:40of Sequoia, is stepping down as of Tuesday.
- 18:43So after serving in that top leadership role for three years, he'll be succeeded by Alfred
- 18:47Lin and Pat Grady.
- 18:48While Roloff has held senior roles at the firm over years overseeing the distribution of
- 18:53nearly 50,000,000,000 to its investors, he did formally step into the top seat during the
- 18:58venture market downturn in 2022 when portfolio valuations across Sequoia were being slashed.
- 19:03During his tenure, the firm wrote off nearly 200,000,000 due to the FTX collapse, which is
- 19:09kind of pennies, but still something to note.
- 19:11And amid geopolitical pressure spun off its China and India operations, Roloff himself has
- 19:17famously said, quote, we want the triumph of ideas, not the triumph of seniority, but this
- 19:22transition still signals a meaningful shift.
- 19:24It's a reminder that even some of the most iconic firms, they can fall out of favor and
- 19:28changes are often underway behind the scenes to prepare for the next chapter and protect a
- 19:32legacy.
- 19:32So we obviously don't work for Sequoia, but just felt like it was something that we should
- 19:35bubble up.
- 19:36In my entire venture career, they're the only firm I can think of that has always been
- 19:40relevant.
- 19:41There are other great firms like Kleiner that have had, you know, their ups and downs and
- 19:44leadership transitions, but Sequoia has always been relevant.
- 19:48And as someone who runs a firm, it's almost impossible for me to imagine how you have a
- 19:52firm that remains when I say relevant, I mean, in the top three list of names that any founder
- 19:58would want on their cap table.
- 19:59Regardless of company stage or strategy, to do that for fifty plus years is really hard, and
- 20:05you only do that if you've built an institution.
- 20:08And the other thing I'll say is this is like a general leadership principle.
- 20:12You don't get to choose the circumstances that are around you when you're a leader.
- 20:16It's the old I think someone told me, like, being the president is an inbox job.
- 20:20You wake up with your set of priorities, and then the world starts putting things in your
- 20:23inbox.
- 20:24And if I think about all of the the challenges that he's had to navigate, it's obviously the
- 20:28downturn, liquidity pressure.
- 20:30They restructured.
- 20:31Basically, it's more like geeky the plumbing of how Sequoia works as an entity in the way that
- 20:37capital gets allocated across the firm.
- 20:39You've had some partners with pretty loud political opinions, some of which have caused
- 20:44some amount of polarization, both within the firm, it sounds like, and and outside of it.
- 20:48And the FTX thing, I think, wasn't so much a financial hit, but more of a reputational hit.
- 20:54And I think that's a lot to deal with in three years.
- 20:56And knowing the people at Sequoia as I do, I'm really confident that they will remain on top
- 21:01and that the new stewards will do a great job.
- 21:04And to me, it's just a reminder of how hard it is to remain on top in this job.
- 21:08It's so hard to do, and they have a remarkable history of doing this.
- 21:13Well, we are all out of time today.
- 21:15Thank you, Charles, for stopping by.
- 21:17Thank you to all our new listeners and subscribers popping in.
- 21:21We will talk with you all next week.
- 21:23Please like and subscribe in the meantime.
- 21:24Thank you.
- 21:25Bye.