Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - $1,000 Stimulus Check FULL Details! Act Now!+ Stock Market News 19 February 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - $1,000 Stimulus Check FULL Details! Act Now!+ Stock Market News 19 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through what is up with the rumored stimulus checks for you American taxpayers.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: I also want to walk you through and let me share my screen with you as I do this the next Berkshire Hathaway being announced literally right this minute and a big breakout stock, big one, really big one, one that you know about but you're not thinking about.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: And then we want to look at end of war stocks, because the rumor has it the ukraine war is going to come to an end.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Um, does that sound good?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: If that sounds interesting to you, if that sounds like something you might want to learn and understand and benefit from, then write in the chat.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Learn l-e-a-r-n, in case you have trouble spelling it, so let's dive straight into it.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: And then let me see that you are alive by typing that into the live chat here.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: And yes, I should also kick us off, of course, with the headline of today, which is why the morning is a bit, is a little bit glum on the stock market.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Trump has floated 25% tariffs on autos, drugs and chip imports and that's keeping the market a little bit, moderately depressed.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: They need some more drugs to make themselves feel better.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the loans and even the liens.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Am I worried about this?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: No, not really.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I think, like all other previous tariff announcements, it's a buy the dip situation.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: At least that is what it is for me.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Tariffs in the long term are unlikely to significantly damage American listed companies.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I would argue There'll be some hiccups, especially if there is retaliation, but I think in the long it'll it'll all be just just wonderful.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So hello estonians, says logan, brilliant.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: So let's get then on into this.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: This is um, and there is a there was an elon tweet on it, but I couldn't find it.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: This, this, this, just now a refund for every american taxpayer funded by doge savings.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: It's something that elon floated.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: And then he did say well, it is up, for course, up to trump to decide, but I don't think he wouldon floated.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: And then he did say well, there's up, for course, up to trump to decide, but I don't think he would have floated it if he hadn't run it by him.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So how does that work?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Well, at the moment, according to doge's official numbers, they have saved about a hundred billion dollars, and bloomberg, by the way, doubts these numbers.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm sure we can argue about exactly what it is.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: But let's just say it's $100 billion, right.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: And he's saying for taxpayers.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So there are about 150 million American taxpayers.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Give or take 10 million taxpayers.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: This does not include those over the age of 150.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: So how much is that then?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Well, let's ask a calculator, shall we?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Microsoft's calculator is still here.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: One of them is 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: That's a billion, that's 10 billion, that's 100 billion, right?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Divide that by 150 million.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: That's $666 for every taxpayer, in theory.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Now, are they going to save more money?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Are they going to give all of it to you?
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: No, that sort of defeats the purpose.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: But I can see this.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: If you want to win votes, if you want to be popular and if you want to stimulate the economy and possibly offset the great big tariff thing you're going to put in, then irritating gulping says Pelican, are you one of those people who suffers from sort of noises when people chew or click or something?
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Does that really get to you?
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but that must be very difficult to get through life like that.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a real possibility.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Now, the last time we got stimulus checks during COVID, what did the stock market do.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: It went absolutely freaking bananas and of course, it was the high-risk place that went nuts.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: It's all the household names, the stuff people were using and buying and ordering from.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I think there is a good chance here of a rally again in similar sort of names.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Misophonia is real.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Is that what that's called?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I know it's a real thing so I I tease, but it's a real thing.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Some people, they just can't handle it.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: If they hear someone like slurping or chewing or something, it really really is going to strike them hard.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Why am I showing you this then?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Well, the question is going to be which stocks to buy?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Isn, isn't it?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Let's say, we get this wonderful, brilliant, shiny rally, the market goes up, I don't know, 20%, 40% or something.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Is everything going to go up?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: No, some things are going to go up a heck of a lot more than others.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: You want to learn which ones are going to go up the most.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: You need the rules, you need the key, you need the path, the blueprint, and I will give you that tomorrow, literally straight after this live session that we do pre-market here, which I absolutely love, I will teach you live how to invest in stocks, whether you're a beginner or you've been doing it for a while, or whether you're a trader or investor or anything in between, it's all the same thing and I will not only teach you where to buy and where to sell, but I'll also teach you and actually we'll do it together live.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: We'll do a real trade together.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Live, my favorite trade in the world that I do every single month and makes us money if the market goes up or down.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: If you want to join, join me there.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Then what do you do?
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Go to FelixFrancoiswebinar, exactly.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself one of the free tickets that we have they're literally completely free, felixfrancoiswebinar and bring a notepad and a desire to learn.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: That's all I ask, just a desire to learn, a desire to make your life better.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Get free, make the desire to learn, the desire to make your life better, get free.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Make your money work for you.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So your portfolios look green and bushy-eyed and lovely, like mine VIX, vix, vix, indeed, and VIX is fantastic.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Vix is an amazing trade.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Now Bill Ackman is, as we speak, rambling on on his Twitter account.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: You don't know who Bill Ackman is.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: He's a very successful investor, hedge fund guy runs Pershing Square and he wants to start the next Berkshire Hathaway.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: And the way he wants to do.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: That is he wants to take over Howard Hughes Holdings ticker symbol HHH and they own sort of small cities and kind of large developments which you know.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: The idea is that it'll grow into larger developments and he's, let's say, a modern day Berkshire Hathaway is what he wants to build on the back of that.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Now, I thought that sounds pretty interesting.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I quite like that idea that you know they buy high quality stocks.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: They build something really extraordinary.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: I know Bill Ackman is a pretty smart cat, but there is always a but isn't there.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: You know the fees that hedge funds charge are.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: This fund will take 1.5% of market cap every single year.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: What's the problem with that?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Well, it kneecaps the compounding of money because you're removing a large chunk of your gains every single year and I would therefore argue that it's pretty much impossible for them to beat the market after fees, because it's a pretty big chunk, right and it's.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: It's hard to beat the market with a large fund, much easier with a small fund.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: A large fund is actually very hard to do because you can't buy the little things that we, we mess around with sometimes, right, like there's a stock I'm coming up that I'm going to tell you about that I'm.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I tried to buy yesterday, didn't go.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I'll buy it again today.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: He can't buy that because that stock only has like 10 billion market cap.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: There you have a $100 billion fund.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: You can't put 1% in that because now you own 10%.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Now you have to file and you control the thing and you control the share price suddenly, which definitely isn't a good thing to do.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I would be very cautious of this.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Most funds just look after their own, and by their own it means the owner and the staff.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I wish them well.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: He's a very smart guy, but I don't understand the fee structure.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I think they should just put their own money into it and benefit from their investing.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: That would be the good thing to do, like the way Buffett does.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: They don't take fees, but this sounds really odd to me.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Now here's the next one.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Adrian is saying would you teach us life in great academy too?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sure, I'll ping you the recording that, that thing we're going to do tomorrow.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Why am I posting your picture of kim kardashian?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Slightly disturbing, isn't it?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I say she, she looks, looks better every year, isn't she?
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Strangely enough?
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Um, a little bit less sort of odd, really, but anyway, that's not why I'm showing this to you.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Nike's ceo has pulled something out of the back, out of the nike back.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Kim kardashian has a massive brand called.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Is it skins or something like that?
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Ladies, any ladies here, I don't know what it's called, but it's basically um, a shapewear, and it's a huge, huge business billion, billion-dollar-plus valuation, amazing business and they basically make you look like you're a certain shape that you may not be, but it makes people feel better and women wear it on their dresses and that sort of thing.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: It's a very, very good product.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Nike is going to do a brand with Kardashian's brand and that's a brilliant idea and it's not a new idea from a Nike point of view.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, you've seen Michael Jordan right, for example, those stores, the Nike stores, but it's the Jordan brand, so that sounds like what they're up to there and I think that's a very, very good idea and it's exactly the sort of thing that Nike should be doing combine their brand with big people out there sports people or influencers or whatever.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So I think that's definitely a good thing.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Felix calling KK odd kettle med pot.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, skims, that's the one.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much, annalisa there.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: So you see them around.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: And what was the brand before that Very successful lady founded the one before that, which is kind of where the idea came from Annalisa, what was before Skims?
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: It was the original shapewear brand.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I can't think of the name, you probably can.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I think that's a brilliant idea.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: So how is Nike stock reacting to that?
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: That's a good question.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I haven't looked at it yet.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Let me open a new stock chart here and have a look actually of how nike is reacting to that, because nike had an inventory problem.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: They're making the wrong things, they're making things the kids didn't want and that sort of thing.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Uh, stock moved pretty decently yesterday and is up, gapped up, nice, nice job up there and is up's up at $76 right now.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Still a falling knife, yes, in my book it is Still below the 150.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, but it's a possibility here, I think, of a breakout on news like that.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: I think we might see what we want to see here.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Spanx, that's the one Brad knows.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Brad wears them every day.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: This is why his voice is so high.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: All right, enough teasing there, now let me give you some thoughts on making money today.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: That's what we're here for, isn't it?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Spandex?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Exactly that's the one, spanx, no, spanx, spanx is the one, amy.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Indeed, thank you, not Spandex.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Spandex is the material, spanx is the one, and I was a lady who made billions out of that Amazing business as well.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Nike went rainbow crap.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a little bit of that as well.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Spanx makes like one of the richest women in the world, scott, yeah, you're right, and it's not Lululemon, it's shapewear, sort of athletic wear, although they might be doing a bit of both by now.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Nowadays we get onto archer in a second.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: The united states will lift sanctions on russia if the war is resolved.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Quote.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Well, you remember when the sanctions came in and a bunch of stocks got delisted and halted, commodity prices went through the roof, all that kind of stuff.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: So what could we trade?
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I actually asked one of my mentors this morning who's a former market maker from the London Metal Exchange.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: He's a commodities trader and he said, yeah, I think commodity prices are going to come down.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So I think that's what most of us seem to agree on Commodity prices are going to come down.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: In the short term, probably, european defense stocks are going to go up.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Defense, you don't spell it with an S, do you Spell it with a C?
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: We can go all the way to S in British English, says the chairman in the room, and I don't really like it as a nitrate idea, because I don't trust your defense stocks in Europe and I think a lot of the defense spending is actually going to go to the US.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I think that the Donald will make that happen.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Commodity prices may dip, but then they may accelerate again.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: So what am I looking at?
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: I was thinking of what Russian stocks got hammered that actually are good businesses, but you can't really buy any Russian stocks, so they're now running out of steam.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Remember there was a stock we were talking about yesterday.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: It's called NBIS, nibius Group, and I had that on my radar as an AI infrastructure play and I didn't think about the Russian connection.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: But Nebius here it is Nebius, which sounds sort of like an evil money laundering organization.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: They're not, honestly.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: They used to be called Yandex.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Now Yandex was Russian and they de-Ruskified themselves so they could keep on living and they had a pretty tough time doing it, and now they're Nebius and it's a pretty good business, I think.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: So I tried to buy Nibius yesterday.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Didn't happen for some reason.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I guess I was a little bit stingy with my price limit and I will buy it again today.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: And I'm not telling you that you should buy it today, but it is sort of the hallmarks of a potential breakout.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: And then you have the potential end of the war, and that should be good for people like Nebius, I think.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what I'm looking at as my Russia play there Nebius, yandex the ticker symbol is N-B-I-S.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I don't blindly buy it just because I am.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I'm long vodka, says Scott.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, that's also, of course, a thing.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: The Russian search engine, yandex, indeed, but there are data center AI play on top of it.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: They actually have a profitable business, I believe.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Might be wrong or not, but I believe that's true.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: And what about companies that profit from those Russian companies?
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I think companies like Philip Morris would also be an obvious one.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I think Russia was 8% of their revenue, if I'm not mistaken.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: One.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I think Russia was 8% of their revenue, if I'm not mistaken.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: And then you have Coca-Cola and Pepsi and McDonald's and so on, but we're not sure that Russia is going to let them back in.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Like McDonald's, for example, got rid of their branches, we're not sure they're going to let them back in.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Philip Morris probably.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Tobacco always finds a way.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: So that's why I'm a little bit doubtful on those ones.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: I think until we can invest directly in Russian stocks again, I think NBIS for me at the moment seems to be like the most obvious play.