Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Fireworks | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/4/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Fireworks | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/4/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: The black coffee on the felt. Man, you look like
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: Made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show? Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice? Now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on me, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back with you.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Toadsool Sports Saturday, July fourth, Happy fourth, everybody.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Oh man, I need to trim this beard or something.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: This is bad.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to count yesterday as I'm counting
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: it as a two and one day. We got the
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: easy win with the Baltimore Orioles three nothing win.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: I was worried that bullpen was gonna blow it, to.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: Be honest, even though I factor them in because Cincinnati's
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: bullpen's even worse. But that game is three nothing for
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: quite a while at the end, and that's how it finished.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: So got that win.
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox Anaheim won. That was a loss because
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox put up a bunch of early runs,
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: and they put up a fifth run in the fifth inning,
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: I think, so it was gonna push before that and
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: then to just really stick the knife in the full
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: game went under. Red Sox didn't score any more runs
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: after the fifth inning. They had won four run inning,
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: and then they didn't score basically at all after that.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: They didn't score against Anaheim's bullpen. I don't think, like
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: who could predict that. The reason why I gave out
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: the first five was Anaheim's bullpen sucks. Red Sox didn't
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: score against them at all. And I think the Red
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: Sox bullpen actually gave up a couple of runs, or
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: actually maybe they didn't.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Bennett. I think Bennett was pitchy really well.
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: Bennett had like a no hitter for a while in
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: that game, or a one hitter or something, and then
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: maybe he gave up the runs because he was in
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: there for a while.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but I'm pissed because the full game
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: went under.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: So if you went full game under eight or whatever
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: it was, the game landed seven. That really really pisses
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: me off. Getting the first five wrong and then the
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: full game goes under. I think it should have been
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: a winner. I'm pretty pissed about it, or at the
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: very worst, it should have been a push.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: We did win in the World Cup with Ghana, even
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: though I had to pay juice for that with a
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: plus one and a half. They lost one nothing, and
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: that was probably that was the most likely outcome, to
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: be honest, I did pick Columbia to win that game
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: and their next game in my bracket, but you saw
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: my handicap. It was just the fact that both teams
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: were playing all these low scoring games. I was like,
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: all right, you're gonna give Ghana the plus one and
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: a half, and Colombia's coming off a big Portugal game.
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: It made sense to me. Colombia did outplay them, but
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: the game was a pretty low scoring game statistically and whatever,
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: so one nothing Ghana was able to cover. Yeah, basically
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: at the end, you're just hoping, like you just need
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: Columbia to not score again. Basically in those remaining minutes
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: of the game there and at that point they were
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: protecting pretty much and making sure that they were not
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: going to concede a goal so that they could.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Just finish the game.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: Off, So that worked out, and then I dude, I'm
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: not gonna count the WNBA game, because what do you
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: want me to count it? As I gave it out
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: at eight and a half on the show, eight and
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: a half.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Was a winner.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: It was basically seven and a half's across the board
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: at that point, and I did tell everybody to wait
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: because I.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: Thought the line was not going to drop that much further.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: Like I legitimately thought that that line was basically just
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: assuming that Wilson wasn't gonna play, and she didn't. But
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: then when they announced that she wasn't gonna play, like
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: I looked and I talked about it on my Instagram video,
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: there were seven and a half still out there very briefly.
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: Then it all just crashed down to like four and
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: a half, and I said, you know, I still do
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: agree with it, but like I did not recommend making
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: a full play on that if you saw my Instagram video,
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: and hopefully I.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Mean I didn't really.
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I made that clear on the
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: show yesterday, but I said, wait, but like at four,
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: there's no way that I personally would have played that
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: at four and a half. I just couldn't do it.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna count that as not being a play.
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, obviously I can't count it as a win,
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: but every other number lost, and by the way, every
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: number should have won. Chicago was really good in the
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: second half of that game. They played pretty well in
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: the game, and then we're good enough in the second
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: half that they overcame the deficit that they were in.
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: They took the lead in the fourth quarter, and if
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: you have them as an underdog, yeah, that's what you want.
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: But then the game went into overtime, and even so, okay,
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: you have a big underdog, it goes into overtime, you're.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Still on the right side. Oh but what happens?
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: No, they get outscored by eight in overtime. They commit
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: another foul with like eleven seconds left when they were
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: down six. So you know, if you were really late
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: to that, you know, if you waited, which I know
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: I did say to wait, but I did not think
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: the line was gonna crash to four and a half
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: like reeally And yeah, like I said, at that point,
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: I would not have played it like I was trying
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: to get a seven to seven and a half. And
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: if you lost on plus seven and a half.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: It was complete bullshit.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: If you lost it that number, you know, I mean,
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: they took the game into overtime. That's all you That's
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: all you could do, basically. So yeah, I mean I
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: can't count the game obviously. I'm not gonna count it
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: as a win, even though the eight and a half,
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: if you got it in the morning, would have been
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: a win. All the numbers if you had waited, all
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: those numbers were losers. But I basically had pretty much
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: implied that I would not really be playing it if
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: it was anything below that seven key number threshold.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna count it as a no play.
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: You know, be angry at me about that if you want,
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: but that's what I'm gonna do for the show purposes.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: So two and one yesterday probably should have won the
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: Red Sox game.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: All right, we gotta get into this. I like the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: baseball board today.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give up four baseball plays, and I have
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: some other fairly strong opinions. It's just that I don't
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: like the number on some of the other games. So
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give up four plays, and I'm giving out
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: a World Cup play, and I'm skipping the WNBA first
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: game up early start time. I don't know what the
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: deal is here Pittsburgh and Washington eleven of five. I
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: think it's because because it's the fourth of July. I
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: guess there's something going on in Washington. I guess it
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: must be the Freedom two fifty thing that's still going
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: on or whatever. So this game is gonna be early,
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: So keep that in mind. This is a really early game.
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: It'll probably start before I even finish the show. I'll
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: try to finish the show before that.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: Though.
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: I do like this game, but it's not on my card.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: First of all.
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, you know, I don't like
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: these two bullpens. Pittsburgh did only use one guy out
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen yesterday though, and Washington I might have
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: to zoom in a little bit here. Ooh, I don't
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: know what's going on this website is like, I don't know.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: There's something going on with this website that I don't
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: really all right, that's better. I was gonna say, like,
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: I don't want to have to scroll to see this
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: entire header here. Washington used four relief pitchers yesterday. Neither
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: bullpen is good. Washington is worse. They're twenty sixth arranged
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: by Whip. Pittsburgh is twenty second. Both offenses are good
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh two Washington four.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: And you know, I.
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: Keep mentioning like this game, this seems like it's gonna
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: be an over type of series. Washington won yesterday and
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: it was an over game. They won nine to five.
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: This game, I think I like Pittsburgh in this game,
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: but the problem is the price is just kind of ridiculous.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: Braxton and Ashcraft is pitching for Pittsburgh and he looks
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: like he's all of a sudden getting a huge amount
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: of respect in the market.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: And the reason I mean I like him.
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: I think he's a good pitcher, but I've also been
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: making some plays on him because I've been thinking you're
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: getting some value playing on.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Him, but in this game, you're really not.
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: Although I think Pittsburgh should win this game, Ashcraft good
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: three point three to three ra one point eight Whip.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: He's only slightly worse on the road three point four
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: to nine. Roady Ira gave up five runs last time
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: it gets Philadelphia on the road, but he still got
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: to win in that game, and I think he got unlucky.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: He gave up five hits, one walk, eight strikeouts runs
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: was really what did him in there, and they still
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: won the game, so.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: But yeah, Ashcraft, I think he is pitching well. I
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: think he's better than that last start would suggest. He's
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, really high
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: or not really high, but definitely a high strikeout rate.
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: His numbers are good across the board here and against
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: Washington he's also good.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: They only have eighteen at bats against him.
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: Most of their hitters have faced him two twenty two average,
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: five seventy eight ohps six' two strikeout walk. Ratio So
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: ashcraft looks like he lines up well. Here he's clearly
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: the better pitcher Over Zach, lttel who is not good
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: five point two NINETY, ra one point three to five.
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: Whip lattel has been really bad at home six point
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: one five home E, ra and it's not, misleading like
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: he's given up a higher home run rate at, home
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: higher hit rate at home, way higher opponent batting average
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: like this is not good stuff here and Against pittsburgh
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: it doesn't get any better forty three at, bats although
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: they ONLY i guess seven hitters who have faced him
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: three seventy two average nine thirty five ops seven to
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: two strikeout walk. Ratio pittsburgh also does have the better
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: bullpen and more rested bullpen. HERE i Like pittsburgh in
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: this one in the full. Game problem is money doesn't
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: agree with it and the. Line it's because of the,
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: Price like you have to lay minus one sixty something With. Pittsburgh,
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: DUDE i thought you were gonna be able to Get
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: pittsburgh at like minus one thirty in this, game to be,
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: honest like all of a, Sudden, Ashcraft, oh be, aware
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: it looks Like pomquist is now listed For, washington SO
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: i think THEY'RE i think that's an. OPENER i think
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: they're putting an opener in front Of Latl SO i
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: should have mentioned. That just be aware that with some
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: of these pitchers that aren't that, good a lot of
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: times these teams will put an opener in front of. Them,
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: pomquist although he is listed as a, starter but, NO
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: i MEAN i think he's gonna be an.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Opener he threw one inning last time out Against.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: Boston he's still, young, though and he's got decent numbers so. Far,
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: HONESTLY i don't know what they're, doing But i'm still
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: expecting it'll Be lattel in after. Him i'm pretty SURE
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: i would still Play pittsburgh in this game IF i
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: was gonna play, it but the money doesn't. Agree fifty
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets On pittsburgh fifty four percent of the
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: cash On.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Washington and the WAY i would play it IS i
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: would Go.
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: PITTSBURGH i would Pick ashcraft must, start and don't pick
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: A washington, starter because AGAIN i don't know what they're doing.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: Here they might still Start.
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: Lattel it's pretty, unclear although the game's coming up in
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: an hour and a, half so it looks like pretty
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: sure It's pomquist opening and Then lattel behind. HIM i
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: think if you play, this what you got to, do,
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: though is do one of those split bets where you
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: do minus one and a half on the run line
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: for some of it and then the rest of it
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: on the money line For pittsburgh or vice. Versa you
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: know WHAT i, mean make your own minus one run
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: line or find a minus one run. LINE i still
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: think that's the WAY i would play that On, pittsburgh
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: but that is not on my.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Card minnesota At.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: Yankees as we get into the actual afternoon slate, here
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: most of the games are at, night by the, way
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: AND i THINK i only have one afternoon game on my,
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: card and it's a late afternoon. Game then all the
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: rest of my games are, nighttime including The World cup
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: Game i'm gonna give. Out i'm pretty Sure yankees won
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: yesterday five to.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: TWO i, MEAN i told you they would bounce.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: BACK i thought the game would be higher, scoring but
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: they did bounce back with a.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Win The. Yankees you, know not THAT i.
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: Want to talk about, that but, Yeah yankees used four
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers. Yesterday their bullpen is still way better Than,
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: minnesota's even Though minnesota only used. Two minnesota's ranked second,
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: worst they're very close to being the worst between them
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: And Kansas city really. Bad yankees are ranked fourth and
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: they have the second Best Bullpenny. RAY i don't think
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: they're quite that, good but they are pretty. Good yankees
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: are sixth in offense right, now ALTHOUGH i think they're
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: probably a little bit better than. That minnesota is at
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: least pretty good. Offensively their number, eleven which is part
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: of the reason WHY i thought an over made sense.
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: Yesterday perhaps an over mixer in this, game we have
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: a really high total here in The BRONX zebbi is
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: pitching For. Minnesota ZEBULON Zebi. MATTHEWS i actually like. HIM
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: i think he's actually kind of his career is starting
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: to kind of take off a little. Bit four point
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: one five era is, whatever but one point one four
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: whip is pretty. Good he's not good on the road,
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: though five point nine to three roady ra that's not very.
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: Good he's been good recently, though like he had a
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: pretty good month Of.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: June he had one bad start in. There it was
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: on the road At.
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: Detroit since then he's been good and allowed two or
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: fewer on runs in his last three. Outings i've gone
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: at least six innings in all of. Him one was
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: against The, dodgers also on the road At.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Houston not easy. Assignments that he did well.
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: There SO i do Think matthews is better than people
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: think that he. Is he's got a pretty low hit rate.
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Here his walk rate is pretty low as. Well his
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is somewhat low as well, though so he's
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: not really a huge strikeout.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: Pitcher all those strikeouts have gone up a little bit.
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: Recently he's not good against The, yankees, though, HOWEVER i
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: will put a caveat in front of. That this is
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: thirty four at bats that he has against. Them this
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: was not this. Year he hasn't faced them this. Year
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: matthews is clearly better this year than he has been
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: in the. Past LIKE i Think minnesota rushed him to
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: the majors and he kind of. Struggled SO i think
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: he's probably gonna be better than what these numbers would.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: Suggest but The yankees could still hit him.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: Though you, know they have a four to twelve average
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: against him twelve ninety seven ops nine to two strikeout walk,
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: ratio SO i still wouldn't really want to Back matthews.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: Here he's also not good on the. Road yankees are
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: going With Brendan, Beck, like who the hell is this?
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: Guy beck doesn't look like he has good numbers so.
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: Far he made one start so, Far he's got a
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: SIX era one point six to seven. Whip the bad
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: thing about it is it was Against texas and they're
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: not a very good. Offensive though it was In New.
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: York texas is better at hitting on the, road but
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: the still not a good. Offense and he only went three,
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: innings allowed two, runs one, strikeout three, walks two. Hits
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: that's not a good pitching line. There beck that was
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: literally his first start in the majors and he's twenty.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: SEVEN i looked at his scouting and he's just Got
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: he's just you, know he's not like a.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: High level prospect like he's considered to.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: Be kind of just be like a back end rotation
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: arm when you need a guy in.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: There he throws like low nineties.
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: Fastball he has a very typical arsenal slider change, curve
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: nothing really special about it at. ALL i don't, know,
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: MAN i, MEAN i don't know what The yankees are doing.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: HERE i, MEAN i don't know if they have an
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: injury going on in the. ROTATION i don't Think beck is,
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: gonna you, know stick.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Around too long.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: HERE i do think this game probably does look like
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: an overgame to. ME i think both pitchers could give
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: up some runs. Here money is definitely backing the. Over
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: sixty one percent of tickets on the, under seventy percent
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Over total is, high and it is high for a.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Reason it's ten The.
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: YANKEES i, mean it's a hitter friendly, ballpark but ten
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: is still pretty, high even for a game In Yankee.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: Stadium yankees are favored for what that's.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: Worth it about minus one.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: Sixty but do you really Think beck should be a
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: minus one sixty favorite Against, matthews who's at least a
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: more proven pitcher at this. POINT i don't think, so
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: and the money seems to not think so. Either seventy
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: five percent of the tickets on The yankees fifty one
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash Playing minnesota as an.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Underdog if you Play, MINNESOTA i would do it in
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: the first.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: FIVE i would Play minnesota like plus a half run
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: or whatever on the spread in the first. FIVE i
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: would not go full game because their bullpen is god,
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: Awful BUT i think it over makes more.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Sense.
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: Here you got two pretty questionable pitchers, here one really bad,
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: bullpen and The yankees bullpen is not really, rested SO
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: i think over is the better way to play. That Mister,
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: penzy what's a lucky? DAY i don't believe. LUCK i, think,
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: DUDE i was unlucky. Yesterday every every one of my
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: players should have been a. Win The sky should have
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: been a, win regardless of what number you played in them.
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: At if you played them the under in The Red
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: sox game should have happened in the first. Five it
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: happened in the full. Game royals, no Uh. Royals they
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: may have a chance Today they got walk uh pitching at,
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: home so they at least have a.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: Chance.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah and then my, dude my two, WINNERS i, mean
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: the luckiest play was THAT i had yesterday was one
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: of the. Winners The ghana The ghana one was was
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: probably the luckiest out of all three of. Those and
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: then you, know two of the both, losses if you
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: want to call them, losses were. Unlucky, No i'm not
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: gonna bet On Joey, chess not no, Way Like i'm
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: assuming he's a giant favorite to win the.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Thing he's not gonna.
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: Lose there's no value in playing him because everybody knows
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: he wins every single year except for that one fluke
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: year That Matt stoney did. It until we see That
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: chestnut is so old that he can't do it. Anymore,
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: no there's no value in. That And CHESTNUT i think
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: broken other personal record of his in the event last. Year, No,
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: NO i.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Would go probably under On chestnut's hot.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: Dogs he's always he's always, overvalued and he's gonna be
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: extra overvalued if he set his personal record last. Year
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: the thing is if he's, not if he's on, pace to,
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: win and he's not on pace to break his own,
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: record he's not gonna try for the, record so he's
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: gonna go under whatever his number, is you know WHAT i?
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: Mean like if he has no competition here and he's
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: gonna win this thing, easily he'll just take it easy
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: towards the end of the, thing and he won't go
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: for his you know, again like if he's not on
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: pace to break his own, record he'll just slow it,
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: down take it easy at the, end and just take
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: an easy. Win so, NO i would go under On
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: chestnut or under on the winners to.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Total Hot dogs. Eating i'm not gonna. BET i don't
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: bet the hot on.
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: Contest all, Right detroit And, Texas, uh this is one
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: of my.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Plays you. Know this is also taking way.
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: Too long already for the, Show LIKE i want this
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: show to be over before this first game. Starts this
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: is one of my. Plays LIKE i, said we're gonna
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: Take texas as the underdog here plus one oh.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Six i'm gonna be.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: HONEST i have no reason Why Jack flaherty is a
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: favorite here on the, Road, like are you kidding? ME
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: i Know, Detroit Like detroit is better than what their
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: record would tell you right. Now but they suck on the.
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: Road so we're Getting detroit on the road where they're
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: fifteen to twenty.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Nine that's not.
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: Good texas is at least above five hundred at, home
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: AND i think we're getting a better pitching setup For texas.
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: Here just, Yeah flaherty, sucks, dude and him being favored
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: on the road makes almost no sense to. Me although,
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: again the oddsmakers know what they're. Doing, uh but even,
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: SO i just don't get. It, now both these teams
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: were off. YESTERDAY i forgot BECAUSE i Mentioned philadelphia didn't play.
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: Yesterday philadelphia And Kansas CITY i believe didn't play. Yesterday
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: but these two TEAMS i believe also didn't play yesterday
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: because of The World.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: Cup there was a game In, Arlington i'm pretty. Sure So.
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: Texas And detroit had the day, off so they do
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: have rested bullpens. Here texas is the ninth ranked, Bullpen
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: detroit is. Nineteenth they're not too, bad But texas is definitely.
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: Better neither offense is that. Good detroit is twentieth or. Nineteenth,
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: now excuse, Me texas is actually. Sixteenth Now i'm not
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: really buying that. Though texas offense is not really that,
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: good and they're not good at. Home but we're back
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: In texas here BECAUSE i think that they at least
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: set up pretty well. Here they have the better bullpens,
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: still so we're rolling with their bullpen and we're gonna
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: Fade Jack. Flaherty LIKE i, SAID i, mean he's not
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: good four point nine to SEVENTY. Rra his whip is
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: really bad one point five to. Three that indicates that
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: HIS era should probably be. Higher he's basically bad both
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: home and. Away he's even worse on the road though
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: five point h four ROADIE ira with a higher his
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: opponent batting average on the road is actually way worse
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: at three to.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: H, two whereas it's two point fifteen at.
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: Home so he's actually probably better at home in the
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: kind of a misleading, way but on the road he
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: legitimately sucks on the. Road he has a ridiculously bad
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: walk rate on the. Road his home run rate is also.
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: Bad he was good in his last outing Against. Houston
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: i'm not gonna put too much weight into, that though
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: his walk rate has gone down. Recently but he did
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: face you, Know cleveland in the start before then didn't
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: even make it more than three. Innings, YEAH i don't, know.
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: MAN i don't Think flaherty's very. Good his hit rate
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: is a little bit too, high his walk rate is
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: definitely too. High his strike out rate is. Good he
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: actually does strike guys, out But i'm not gonna trust.
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: Him and he does not have good numbers Against, texas
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: which is not a good sign because they're not a good.
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: Offense he's got seventy seven at bats against. Him they
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: have a two to SIXTY, ava which isn't that, high
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: but they hit him for. Power they got seven home
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: runs off. Him Jock peterson definitely does damage against, him
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: eight fifty nine, ops.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Twenty to six strike out walk.
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: Ratio, again if you want to do hits plus runs
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: plus RBIs over On Jock, peterson that might be a
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: good approach for a player prop. Here i'm not really
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: a prop, guy but he definitely does damage Against. Flarity
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: twenty to six strike out walk ratio there is not
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: really that bad For. Flaherty but the rest of those
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: numbers don't look. Good his home road splits look like
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: they're pretty much against him. HERE i don't think he's,
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: good and we're gonna Back Kumar rocker AND i know
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: he's not, great BUT i think he's better Than.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Flaherty he also has.
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: More upside at this point because he's the younger. Guy
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: three point eight THREE, era one point three four. WHIP
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: i know that whip isn't that. Good his home road. Splits,
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: actually he's worse at home right now with a FOUR,
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: Era but if you dig into his home numbers a little,
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: bit he's not really worse at, home and from a
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: lot of the season he was better at, home and
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: their home stadium is a better pitcher, park So i'm
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: not really buying into that too. Much rocker has actually
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: been a little bit better over his last two. Starts
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: they're actually both on the, road though Against miami At.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Toronto those are not very good.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: Offenses, Well miami's offense has been better than you would,
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: THINK i, guess but he did well though he got
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: his walk right. Down he had fourteen strikeouts in one
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: walk across those eleven innings and only gave up two
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: runs on nine, hits so he is in pretty good
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: form over those last couple. Outings, overall he's got a
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: pretty low hit. Rate his walk rate is still too,
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate isn't. Great but that's not exactly his.
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: Thing numbers Against, detroit though looking pretty. Good twenty one
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: at bats is not a huge. Sample only one extra base,
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: hit which Is Dylan, dingler everybody's Favorite Dylan. Dinger five,
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: strikeouts no walks, here one ninety average, allowed five twenty
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: four oh. Ps those are good numbers from. Raw So
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: i'll rock With rocker in this.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: One.
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: Man the money seems to very much agree with. This
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: detroit has fifty three percent of the. Tickets public is On, detroit,
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: man because they JUST i guess they don't Like texas,
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: offense they Know flaherty's. Name whatever the case. Is detroit's
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: been playing better. Recently they just swept The.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Yankees. Man oh and that's the other.
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: Thing that's the last Thing detroit, did, right, yeah, oh,
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: No detroit lost To.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Texas my.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: MISTAKE i was gonna Say detroit's coming off sweeping The.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: Yankees you, know my. Mistake they did.
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: Lose To texas two days ago in the first game
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: of the. Series BUT i don't. CARE i think this
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: is a matchup. Thing seventy one percent of the cash On.
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: Texas by the, way, AGAIN i don't really get Why
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: detroit is favored here at minus one sixteen or. SOMETHING
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: i think these teams are not far apart as far
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: as which team is the better, team you, know Like
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: detroit's probably a little bit better, Offensively texas is the
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: better pitching. Team you get the better bullpen behind you
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: With texas, here AND i think get the better starter
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: here as well in the better probably in a better
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: match up, here and in the better home road.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: Splits in my, OPINION i think.
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: That that all Favors texas, here so and the money,
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: agrees so we're going.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: With texas in that. One total is at.
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: EIGHT i KNOW i talk a lot about, unders LIKE
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: i was thinking this could be an under type of.
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: SERIES i believe we lost on the under in the first. Game,
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: yeah we lost on the under in the first game
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: of that, series thanks to from Ber. Valdez But texas
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: does typically play a lot of low scoring games at.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: Home total is at eight in that, one so not
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: exactly expecting the lowest scoring game. There and by the,
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: WAY i did forget to go Through Zach. LATEL i
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: forgot to go through his overall. NUMBERS i THINK i
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: jumped the gun on. That But lttel gives up a
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: really high hit, Rate his walk rate is, fine he
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: doesn't really walk guys when he never strikes guys. Out,
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: basically his strike gut rates really, low and he has
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: one of the highest home run rates in.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Baseball Zach lttel gives up a ton of home run.
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: On so assuming he is pitching after that opener In
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: washington there, YET i think he's gonna get lit.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Up, yeah, so, YEAH i still Lean pittsburgh in that.
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: One it's just the price on them doesn't make any,
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: sense or it, DOESN'T i, mean it doesn't make enough
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: sense to play, IT i should. Say but, YEAH i
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: Think pittsburgh does still win that. Game all, Right toronto And,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: seattle that was a tough read for me. YESTERDAY i
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: THINK i did more strongly lean to the under than anything,
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: else and that was.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Correct seattle lost two to. NOTHING i Thought.
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: Toronto could be in a little bit of a difficult
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: spot because they were traveling cross country for the first
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: game of A West coast, trip which is usually difficult
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: for These eastern. Teams Plus seattle's got revenge on, mind
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: because Remember toronto Knocks seattle out of the playoffs last
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: year to get to The World. Series So seattle they're
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: going to have their eye on this, series and even
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: more so after losing the first.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Game seattle's gonna be.
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: Motivated, here, Man although if you Want, seattle you gotta
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: play a pay a price for. It AND i actually
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: don't love the way the matchup looks For, seattle even
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: THOUGH i do like their starting. Pitcher not in this,
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: Matchup seattle used three relief. Pitchers Yesterday toronto used.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Two these are both decent.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: BULLPENS i Think seattle's is still better even though they're
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: eighteenth than The Blue jays are. Tenth seattle's ray is,
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: better AND i think they have better arms than their.
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: Bullpen but both bullpens are pretty. Good seattle is twenty seventh,
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: offensively they've really struggled offensively. RECENTLY i think they're gonna
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: move up again at some. Point Blue jays twenty. THIRD
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: i think The Blue jays are legitimately the worst of
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: these two. Offenses though Blue jays are gonna be going
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: With Shane bieber. Here, BIEBER i, mean we know he's
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: dealt with, injuries, man. Recently he's still not that old
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: at thirty, one but he's missed a lot of time
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: over the last couple of seasons because of. Injuries he
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: just can't stay. Healthy but when he is, healthy he's.
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: Good like he's been good throughout his, career including last
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: year that brief period where he was.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Held he was good last. Year so what do we
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: do With bieber? HERE i don't.
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: Know he's only made two starts this. Season wasn't, great
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: SIX era two. Whip they were both at. Home he
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: was somewhat better in his last, start which was Against.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: Texas they're not a good offense, though although again better
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: on the, road and that's where they were. There his
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: first start Against, houston he really got lit, Up so
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: he did settle down a bit Against, texas but he's
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: Still he had four walks in five.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: And third innings Against. Texas that's not exactly a good.
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Sign So i'm kind of waiting With bieber here because
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: he's good and at some POINT i expect that he's
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: going to return to form, here but it hasn't happened.
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: Yet maybe it could have been, here, though because this
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: is a pitcher friendly ballpark, here and he does have
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: good numbers Against seattle in his career seventy five at.
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: Bats mostly it's just all the long timers in their
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: lineup have a bunch of at bats against. Him two thirteen,
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: average FIVE h two ops really good thirty four to
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: five strikeout walk, ratio so he is pretty domb numbers Against. Seattle,
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: again the question is how healthy is he right?
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: Now he's going up.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: Against Logan, gilbert who obviously has had the better season
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: so far three point four to TWO, era one point
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: zero one. Whip gilbert has not been as good at, home.
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: THOUGH i don't know what's going on with his home
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: numbers four point six y three homey ray because for
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: some reason he's allowed a bunch of home runs in
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: a park that limits home. Runs makes no. Sense BUT
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: i talked about that BECAUSE i Backed. GILBERT i, think
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: what DID i? DO i THINK i gave out an
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: UNDER i want to say in one of these. GAMES
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: i think it was This baltimore. GAME i THINK i
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: gave it an. Under MAYBE i did it in The
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: boston one.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: TWO i.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: Forget But gilbert has been better at home. Recently his last, two,
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: really his last three home starts have all been, Good
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: SO i don't know.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: What was going on with.
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: Him man with those home run, numbers with those home
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: run numbers have definitely dropped, recently he only allowed one
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: in his last two starts combined at. Home pitched pretty
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: well on the road Against cleveland last. Time i've got
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: unlucky to allow four runs in my, opinion in that
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: one went seven, innings seven, strikeouts no.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Walks so, YEAH i Think gilbert is.
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: Good he's got a high strikeout, rate low hit, rate
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, Too so there's nothing to really dislike,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: here except.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: He doesn't do well Against.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: Toronto in seventy nine at bats three sixteen, average eight sixty,
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: ops thirteen to three strike out walk. Race Jo guerrero
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: And kirk both do a pretty decent amount of damage against,
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: him And Luke's lucas does as, Well so do what
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: you want with. That but you, know player prop potential
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: with a couple of those guys. There maybe for the,
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: Overs i'm staying away from this. Game the total is,
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: low and probably rightfully. SO i, mean on the, surface at,
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: least it does look like it should be a good
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: Here totals at seven and a.
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: HALF i, mean it is a home game In, seattle
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: so kind of makes. Sense the money's backing the over a, bit,
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: though sixty percent of ticket seventy five percent of the
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: cash on the Over the money is also back In
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: toronto seventy four percent of tickets On seattle sixty eight
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash On. Toronto, NOW i think part
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: of the reason for that is That, BIEBER i, think
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: is going to return to some sort of form at some,
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: point and he's a huge. DUDE i don't even know
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: If bieber has ever been an underdog like, this except
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: for maybe like before he was established at. All seattle's
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: laying minus one sixty here in what looks like a
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: pretty you, know you could argue this is a pretty
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: close pitching matchup, here like these are both good, pitchers
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: and Again bieber has the way better matchup stats, Here
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: SO i THINK i probably do agree that there is
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: probably some value looking towards The Blue jays, here and
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: you'll get them like you could, do you, know like
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: SOME i would do it first five, though probably BECAUSE
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: i do Think seattle has a little bit of a better,
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: bullpen although you, KNOW i wouldn't really disagree with you
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: on the full game either, though if you wanted to
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: do Like Blue, jays part of it on the plus
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: one and a half run line and the rest of
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: it on the money, line you know WHAT i, mean
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: something like, that or just fire On toronto's money, line
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: just go for, it balls to the wall like you
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: do sometimes with these money line.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: Sports maybe something like.
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: THAT i still slightly lean towards an under in this, game,
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: too but, YEAH i, think, Yeah toronto might be able
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: to hang in there and get you there with that,
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: one and maybe a first five plus a half run makes.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: Sense baltimore And, cincinnati yeah, yeah, boy look at this pitching.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: Matchup all, Right i'm gonna this is another one of my.
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: Plays we're gonna go With cincinnati first, five money line minus,
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: one twenty. Five we're gonna back one of my favorite guys,
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: here the vomit Hunter Green, green vomit all over the.
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: Mountain let's, go. BABY i Played baltimore. Yesterday that WAS
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: i really liked The baltimore situation. Yesterday but NOW i
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: think this is a spot to Play. Cincinnati but we
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: gotta play them first. Five you cannot Play cincinnati's. Bullpen
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: their bullpen is too. Bad But cincinnati the return home
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: yesterday AND i talked about that. Spot cincinnati had no,
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: Rest baltimore had the day, off So baltimore.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: Was the rested.
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: Team coming into yesterday's, Game cincinnati was coming off two
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: big divisional series where they Beat, pittsburgh they.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Won the last game Against.
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee returning home plus no time, off it was a
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: terrible spot For, Cincinnati but NOW i think this is
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: a better spot because when a team returns home and
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: they don't do well in that return home spot and
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: they have the home distractions around them, whatever losing the
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: game badly will like wake them. Up and teams in
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: baseball when they get shut out at home a lot
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: of times they do bounce back and they do better
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: in that next. Game so that sets up a bounce
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: back angle For cincinnati for both of those.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: Reasons SO i like.
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: That AND i think they have the starting pitching edge,
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: obviously which is Why i'm giving you the first five.
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: Here cincinnati did use three relief. PITCHERS i don't want
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: anything to do with their, bullpen although they were good.
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: Yesterday baltimore used three relief pitchers. Yesterday both bullpen's ACTUALLY
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: i think didn't give up any runs. Yesterday baltimore's ranked.
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: Thirteenth they're a mediocre. Bullpen cincinnati is still like a
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: bottom several. Bullpen they're at twenty eighth not. Good baltimore
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: does have the slightly better. Offense they're at eighteenth right.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: Now cincinnati is at twenty, third But i'm not gonna
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: weigh that too.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Heavily And baltimore is going With Brandon.
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: Young and WHILE i Think young is actually kind of
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: finding something this, year LIKE i actually think he's better
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: than people think that he, is EXCEPT i don't think
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: he's as good as his three point one to one
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: era suggests three to Eleven, yes.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: One of my one of my bands THAT i would
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: listen to all the time in the late.
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: Nineties one point three whip here indicates that HIS era
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: should probably be higher than.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: That i'm not saying he's.
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: BAD i think he's he's kind of come into shape
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: this year a little.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Bit he is a little bit worse on the.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: Road three point three to eight Roadyra he's going into
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: a hitter friendly ballpark, here and he does allow a
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: lot of fly, balls although he hasn't allot a lot
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: of home runs.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Yet he does have a pretty low hit rate.
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: Here his walk rate is too, high so the walks
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: have been the issue with, him and he doesn't really
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: strike guys, out so he is one of those guys
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: that the advanced analytics guys won't like him because he
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: doesn't really strike a lot of guys, out and the
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: walks are still a concern over the past, month even
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: though he pitched pretty well really over the Last, really
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: it's just over the course of the season he's a
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: lot more than three runs only, once but there are
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: some issues there with the amount of walks he's given. Up,
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: MAN i think he's getting a little bit lucky with
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: the amount of runs that he's given up being so,
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: Low SO i think at some point there's gonna be
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: a little bit of regression, here even.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: THOUGH i don't think he's that.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: Bad but he doesn't have good numbers Againt, cincinnati though
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: it's a very small. Sample ten at bats five hitters
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: have face, him but they have a four hundred average
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: against him one fifty five. Ops SO i don't really
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: think this is really the best matchup for, him AND
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: i want to Back Hunter, green.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Dude Hunter green is returning from the injured.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: List he hasn't pitched yet this, year AND i consider
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: him to be a veteran at this, point, man Because
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: cincinnati brought him.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Into the league four years ago.
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: In twenty twenty two and he struggled a little, bit
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: BUT i knew that this guy had something because the
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate was so high that it overcame his walk
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: rate not being that. Good he was clearly a good,
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: pitcher and he really came. Around he was dominant in
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five before he got.
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: Hurt like he's been an ace pitcher, Basically so him coming,
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: back that's gonna stack this red starting. Rotation having him
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: And Chase burns as a one to two, punch that's not.
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: BAD i still don't Like cincinnati as a, Team LIKE
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: i still don't Think cincinnati is that good as a,
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: team But Hunter green is definitely gonna help. Them AND
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: i think WHAT i was going WHAT i was alluding
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: to is he's a veteran at this, Point SO i
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: like it when a veteran pitcher comes back from injury
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: BECAUSE i think they're gonna be ready to. Go like
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: people will have a tendency to want to shy away from. Them, oh,
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: well What's green going to do when he comes? Back
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: people kind of forget About green because he's been gone
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: for a. WHILE i can't forget about him because he
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: vomits on the.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: Mound.
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: Man that's that's SORRY i keep mentioning, it but that's
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: kind of what he's known for at this, point the vomit. Ball,
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: ANYWAY i think that he's going to be excited to
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: get back out. There, man after missing a pretty large
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: chunk of. TIME i think he's gonna be ready to.
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: Go AND i looked at what he did in his rehab.
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: Stints he pitched a little bit in SINGLE a in the,
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: miners and then he went to TRIPLE.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: A he was completely.
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: Dominant he gave up no runs in like fourteen innings
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: across SINGLE a and TRIPLE, a and he hardly put
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: anybody on, base LIKE i think he only put like
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: four guys on, base either via the hit or the.
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: Walk his strikeout rate wasn't that, high SO i will say.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: That but, YEAH i mean he he was pretty much
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: lights out in his rehab, stuff SO i think he's
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: ready to. GO i don't remember what his splits looked
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: like last. Year he was really good at, home so good.
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: THING i reminded myself last year he had a one
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: point FIVE, homeyra so he was really good at home last.
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: Year so, yeah let's roll with. IT i Like Hunter.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: Green he is a strong, pitcher. Dude and the MONEY
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: i think is backing this as.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Well let me, say.
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: BECAUSE i think the public just doesn't really want anything
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: to do With cincinnati with the way they've been playing.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Recently but let me, SEE.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: I mean they're in last place now in their, division
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: ALTHOUGH i think they might be the worst team in that. Division,
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: yeah fifty three percent of the tickets On baltimore and
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: seventy eight percent of the cash On. Cincinnati so the
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: money is heavily Backing. Cincinnati and the price in the
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: first five is not that much higher than it is
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: in the full. Game full games like minus one twenty
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: two minus won twenty.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Five is out. THERE i saw the first.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: FIVE i saw anywhere between one twenty five and like
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: FIVE i think it's worth.
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: It he got to Exclude sinnattie's bullpen, man and REALLY
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: i was surprised that you weren't having to pay that
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: much more for. It so we're gonna Back Hunter green
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: in the first. Five, there that's my second. Play what
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: do you mean you got? Burnt you found the sky plus?
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: Eight, well at least you got a good number on.
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: That, uh they should have won the game, outright, Dude
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: i'm pissed about. That why why did you Play ghana plus?
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: One just, DUDE i told you just lay the juice
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: on the plus one and a? Half, yeah, Yeah Yankee, Gerald,
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: Yes yankees In. Colorado, yes it was a two in
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: one day for me on the.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: Show i'm.
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: Counting i'm not counting the sky as a play because
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: the number just wasn't there. Anymore so that would be
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: unfair BECAUSE i gave it out an eight and a
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: half on the. Show BUT i told everybody to, wait
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: SO i did not think the lion was gonna fall that.
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: Far and if you did Play, chicago you got. Screwed
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: they should have they should have covered every. NUMBER i,
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: mean they took the game into. Overtime, yeah don't know
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: what else to say about. THAT i would not have
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: had my money On colorado, THOUGH i, mean that's just.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: YEAH i, mean you must not really care about your
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: money if that's what you, did even THOUGH i KNOW
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: i leaned that way and they, Won but that was
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: like that play seemed a little bit psycho to, Me
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: like that game was way too unpredictable for me to
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: actually do, that Especially Logan.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: WEBB i know he had bad. NUMBERS i.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: Didn't you didn't even know If web was gonna start the,
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: game and he, did and he Is San francisco's best.
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: Pitcher he does have bad numbers against The, rockies BUT
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: i don't really know, why because he's a ground ball,
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: pitcher should be good in course.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: Field but he was bad again against The.
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: Rockies but, DUDE i did not really want to Fade web,
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: there even THOUGH i did, say, yeah you, know maybe
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: you JUST.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: I know WHAT i. SAID i, MEAN i did lean
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: To colorado in that.
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: Game but, LIKE i think you'd have to be a
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: crazy person to actually make that. Play and OBVIOUSLY i
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: liked it more If webb wasn't gonna, pitch although you.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Would have gotten a worse number on. It next game
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: is also a.
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: PLAY i gotta get this show, done, dude preferably before
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: this first game.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: Starts we're gonna go what? Game is? This what game
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: AM i talking?
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: About?
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: Oh, Yeah White sox In. Cleveland we're gonna go under
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: in the first five. HERE i found a four on
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: this at minus one oh. FIVE i think that's a
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: good number on. THIS i got to exclude the bullpens
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: here man even THOUGH i don't necessarily hate these, bullpens
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: And i've Back cleveland's bullpen numerous times at, home especially
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: Because cleveland has low scoring home. Games but the problem
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: is these teams played it to extra innings, yesterday so
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: the bullpen's got wiped. Out Like cleveland used a couple
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: of their better pictures out of the bullpen.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Yesterday they use five relief.
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: Pitchers The White sox even worse, scenario they use, six
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: and they're the lesser of the two bullpens, Too SO
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: i got to exclude these, bullpens even though The White
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: sox bullpen era actually isn't too bad in the ranked,
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: twentieth even his ranked. Fifteenth their bullpen is all right as.
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: Well but, YEAH i, mean after the extra inning game
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: and a lot of, Usage i'm only gonna focus on
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: the starting. PITCHING i gave you guys a winner with
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: this same starting pitching matchup In chicago last.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: Week and, NOW i know.
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: That does mean that both these pitchers just face these,
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: offenses AND i know. THAT i always talk about how
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: when an offense sees a pitcher, again like basically right,
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: away the offense tends to have a little bit of
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: an advantage because they they just saw them and they
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: get to adjust to. It but the thing about it,
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: IS i think it's that situation is the. Strongest when
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: it was the first time that that lineup faced that
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: picture and they had no idea what that picture was
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: gonna throw at. Them now they do, know they tend
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: to hit him better in the second. Time that's not
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: the case. HERE i, mean these are divisional. Foes they're
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: already familiar with each, other which a lot of TIMES
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: i know. THAT i do say that familiarity within a
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: division does tend to lead towards better hitting a lot
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: of the, times just in. General but in this, case
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: you're gonna look at some sample size the year with
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: these pitchers both have the upper hand. Here these offenses
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: have both seen these pitchers multiple times, Already SO i
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: still think it's gonna be an. Under Sean burke is
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: pitching for The White sox three point six Ninety ray
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: one point two to two. Whip he's been good on
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: the road three point one to One Roadie. Ray SO
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: i actually liked this be LIKE i liked the under In.
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: CHICAGO i like it better In cleveland Because cleveland is
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: more of a pitcher friendly. Ballpark burke is actually better
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: on the. Road, uh so that's looking pretty. Good burke
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: has been pretty good man really throughout the whole. Season
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: he's given up more than four and runs only one.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: Time his last three. Starts he gave up two or
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: fewer in all of, them including a game in The
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: bronx and he had to come off of. That and
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: he followed that up with Holding cleveland to one run
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: and six and a third.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Innings that was a good start from him as.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: Well uh wasn't quite as good Against baltimore last time
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: out on the, road But baltimore is a way more capable.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: Offense Than, cleveland And cleveland has not hit him.
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: Well LIKE i, said they've seen him more times than
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: just that last, time and they haven't done. Well fifty
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: three at bats two eight, average allowed six forty seven,
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: ops fifteen to six strikeout walk. Ratio So burke has
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: the upper hand against. Them they're also not a good,
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: offense WHICH i forgot to point. Out cleveland is twenty
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: eighth in offense And Jose ramirez is still.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Injured i'm pretty, sure so that offense is not.
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: GREAT i know The White, sox they're a pretty potent
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: offense at, eighth BUT i think their numbers go down
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: a bit on the, road and they have to contend
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: With Parker, messik who is one Of cleveland's best, pitchers
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: probably their best two point eight FIVE era one point
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: zero six. Whip he's not as good at, home but
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: his homy ray is still three point two to. One
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: like these numbers are still good at, home SO i,
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: mean what are you really gonna. Do he gave up
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: four runs last time at home Against, texas which isn't,
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: great but his command was still on. Point after he
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: had a couple of if he starts as far as his,
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: Command those were against The yankees In, milwaukee, though so
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: good offenses.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: There he bounced.
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: Back he really really did well against The White sox
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: in that. GAME i gave you guys a first five
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: under in that game and it was a. Win he
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: had ten strikeouts in that. One that was this same pitching.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: Matchup AS i, mentioned he'll give up three hits in
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: seven to two thirds in he's There's he was actually
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: unlucky to give up two runs there one.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: Walk he was good in that.
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: Outing and THEN i still don't knock him for his
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: starting Against texas because he had five, strikeouts no.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: Walks messik is pitching, well.
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: Dude he's got a pretty high strikeout, rate really low hit,
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: rate low.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: Walk rate as.
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: Well everything looks good for him here against The White,
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: Sox he's got really good. Numbers and again it's not
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: just that one. Start they've seen him multiple. Times thirty
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: four at, bats twelve, strikeouts one, walk one eighteen average
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: three seventy eight. Ohps, yeah they have not put together
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: a lot of offense against.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: Him SO i like how this sets.
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: Up and For, burke by the, way just for his
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: overview real, quick he's got a pretty low hit. Rate
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is a little bit. High strike up
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: rate is also. High So burke has really kind of comeing,
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: too you, know into some sort of form this. Year
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: i'm kind of surprised by it BECAUSE i don't, KNOW i,
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: mean he was okay, before but this year he's been.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: Better so it's.
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: Interesting but, yes we're back in the under in the
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: first five. HERE i think the money agrees with all
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: of my plays, today by the, way and it is
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: agreeing with this as. Well sixty percent of the tickets
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: on the over sixty five percent actually seventy two percent
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the under, however so the total
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: looks like it as a pros Versus joe split on
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: it total is low on the full.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Game seven and a.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: Half SO i wasn't sure that you'd be able to
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: find a, four BUT i, did so hopefully you can
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: find a. FOUR i would it was at a good price,
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: Too LIKE i would probably get up to about minus
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: one twenty even to get the under four, Here, LIKE
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: i think it is worth. It every half run matters
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: in the first, five because of course it can.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: Be tied at the end of.
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: Five you, know the money's also backing the, whiteside WHICH
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: i don't know about that sixty six percent of tickets
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: On cleveland seventy seven percent of the cash on the White.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: SOX i think it's probably because of the. Price cleveland
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: is about minus one forty something. Here messick is, good
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: but maybe the professional money's kind of, saying, Well burke
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: isn't that much. Worse so this should be a close
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: enough game that maybe there's value looking towards the dog.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: Here But cleveland does have the better.
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: Bullpen you, KNOW i don't know if you're gonna go
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: with the side you, know if you were gonna take
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: a shot with The White, SOX i would only do
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: it in the first. Five, but LIKE i, said throughout this,
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: series LIKE i said, YESTERDAY i was correct About cleveland winning.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: Yesterday though it was.
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: CLOSE i didn't wind up putting it on my, card
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: BUT i liked It. Cleveland they had their other good
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: pitcher on the mound. Yesterday Gavin williams Of cleveland was
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: favored AND i, said, WELL i thought that the public
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: would be on The White sox throughout the series because
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: The White sox they're the better hitting, teams so people
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: perceive them to be the better, team you know WHAT i.
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: Mean SO i was, like, well the public is gonna
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: like The White, sox seeing them as an, underdog although
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: it looks like that's not the case in this, game
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: which kind of surprises. Me But cleveland has won both
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: games in the series so. Far they've only won each
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: game by one.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: Run.
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: Though uh, so, yeah The White, SOX i, mean because
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: they've lost both games in the, series there might be
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a motivational angle there, Maybe but
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: under first, five as my play there.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Didn't have plus. One, wait what what are you, talking?
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Dude you got to get multiple. Books.
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: Men most most books don't offer a plus, one SO
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: i don't know what book that, was like the biggest.
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: Books they they try to fuck you like they. Don't
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: they don't want to give you the plus one because
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: you can get a better like price on, it you.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: Know WHAT i. Mean so they give you just only the.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: Halves if you look at the alternate lines on LIKE
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: dk AND fd and, WHATEVER i don't know. WHAT i
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: don't know what we're talking about. Here, yeah, Dude LIKE i,
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: said don't listen to. Me although my plays That i'm
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: giving out are all my strong, plays all. Right my
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: last baseball play is the next game best bet. Segment,
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: yeah so this is my last baseball. Player you get
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: all four of them here in the first half basically
• 49:17
  Speaker 4: under In Tampa bay And. Houston i'm going full game
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: on this seven and a. Half you get the hook
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: here at minus one. TWENTY i think the starters are
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: strong enough in this one that they can carry us
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: through more than just the first five innings. Here in my,
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: OPINION i Think rasmussen is no longer just a first
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: five type of, guy like they used to limit him
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: to just the first five and he was really good at.
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: That BUT i also don't hate these. Bullpens, man at this,
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: point these are both like mediocre bullpens and they're in
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: decent shape right. Now AND i prefer this because if
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: you look at first five in this, one you can
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: only get a three and a half on the first,
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: five AND i don't like that nearly as. Much So
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: i'm gonna take the good side of the key number
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: on the full game on this seven and a. Half
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: Tampa bay used three relief pitchers, yesterday Including lego Legu
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: me AND i THINK i pronounced his name, wrong the Little.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Bean.
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah But Tampa, BAY i, MEAN i think they have
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: some of their better relievers still available.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Here what was the score in the game, yesterday don't even.
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: Know, Actually Tampa bay did have a save situation, yesterday
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: the only one three to, one SO i don't even
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: know who their closer. Is but their bullpend is pretty rested.
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: Here houston's is also pretty, rested and these bullpens Have
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: ACTUALLY i think they're. Mediocre Tampa bay's rate. EIGHTH i
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: don't think they're that. Good their era isn't really that,
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: good but they're not a miserable. Bullpen houston was awful
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: for the first chunk of the, season but they've actually
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: been good, since you, know a few weeks, ago and
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: they're up to. Seventeenth So i'm okay with backing these
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: bullpens right now and, again especially BECAUSE i think these
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: pitchers that are starting are gonna get us.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: There drew, rasmusen LIKE i, said starting For.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: Tampa he's in The Cy young conversation in The American
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: league right, now kind of because The American league doesn't
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: really have many guys who.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Are it's Like schlittler and everybody.
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: Else even After schlitzler had a bad, START i think
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: he still is the front runner for. It rasmussen's been good,
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: though two point four or Five ray point eight seven
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: whip really.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Good he is slightly better on the.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: Road two point three to Six Roady, ray and, dude
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: he's been pretty much lights. Out he's allowed more than
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: three and runs only twice this. Season didn't allow more
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: than two in any start over the past. Month only
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: allowed more than two, once and that was only allowed
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: more than one. Once excuse me at home against K.
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: C pitched against The dodgers in there and shut them
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: down on the road pretty good sign he shut down
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: The yankees towards the end Of.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: May, Yeah rasmussen is pitching really.
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Well his overall numbers are, Crazy like he had a
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: point eight TWO era in the month Of, june sixteen
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: hits allowed in thirty three innings with thirty nine strikeouts four.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Walks is that? Good?
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: Uh, yeah he's got a high strikeout, rate higher than
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: you would expect out of. HIM i, think really low
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: hit rate and really low walk. RIGHT i, mean this
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: guy's been pretty much lights. Out and his numbers Against,
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: HOUSTON i mean they're not as dominant as you would,
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: want but they're pretty. Good in thirty eight at, bats seven,
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: strikeouts no, walks that's pretty. Good two sixty three average,
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: allowed six fifty eight. Ops so they really have not
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: done a ton of damage against, him and they have
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: a few guys who haven't seen him as. Well SO
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: i Think rasmussen should pitch well. Here Hunter brown is
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: on the other. Side he's a really talented pitcher as.
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: Well he was injured to start the. Season he's been
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: pretty good since coming. Back he's got a one point
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: seven to EIGHTY, rra one point one eight, whip he
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: has a one point one Home he Ra so he's
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: been really good at. Home he's allowed no more than
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: three or or no more than two are in runs
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: in any of his outings so. Far, uh and he
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: only did that. Once he's got a high strikeout, rate
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: low hit. Rate his walker is a little bit too
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: high right. Now but you, KNOW i, mean he's kind
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: of that type of. Pitcher but he's been a really
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: good pitcher since he you, know kind of came into
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: his own in his career twenty twenty four to twenty twenty.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: Five like last year he was An All.
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: Star he was super dominant last, year SO i think
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: he is coming back towards.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: That and his numbers Against tampa are really.
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: Good they only have six hitters who have faced him
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: thirty one at bats and they have not been. Successful
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: they have no extra base, hits one twenty nine, average
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: three thirty five ops eight three strike out walk. Ratio
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: SO i like the pitching in this one under in
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: this game is my call, here and the money is
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: backing this as. Well fifty two percent of the tickets
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: eighty percent of the cash on the under total is
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: that seven sort of tilting towards seven on the full. Game,
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: NOW i would still probably do it at. Seven, uh
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: you're still at least on that key, number but seven
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: and a, Half LIKE i, said if you can get
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: up to about minus one twenty five on the under
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: seven and a, half that's WHAT i would. Do that's
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: why it pays to, find you, know to have extra, books,
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: man like we got seven of them here in Mass
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: i'm telling you if you want to do this, series
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: to get an account every possible, book and then the
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: money is back In houston here by the, way WHICH
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: i probably also do agree with That tampa fifty four
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on, them seventy seven percent of the
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: cash On. Houston LIKE i said, YESTERDAY i Think tampa's
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: overrated right now because everybody's, looking oh my, god they
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: have the best record in The American. League they're on
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: this huge wind, streak And i'm, like, yeah but the
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: win streak was basically entirely Against Kansas city And. Arizona
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: so they had two series Against Kansas. CITY i, mean
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: that doesn't impress me that. Much houston is better than
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: those two teams in my. Opinion And Hunter brown is really,
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: Good LIKE i think he's better Than rasmusten, probably.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: So, YEAH i don't really disagree With.
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: Houston and as far as the offense, Is tampa is ranked,
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: eighth tie with The White. Sox houston has fallen to,
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: fourteenth tied to The. Cardinals BUT i think you can
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: make the argument That houston is the better offensive team. Here,
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: LIKE i don't think it's really clear which one of
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: the offenses is really, better all. Right social, Security well
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: that's the. Thing, YEAH i, mean if you're if you're
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: gonna be, betting it's it's like a, job, Dude, LIKE i,
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: mean you have to give your job that information as.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: WELL i know it's.
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: Weirder to do it with one of these sports books
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: where you don't know these, people you don't trust them as.
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: Much that's just, well you don't have to give your
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: social you. Don't you just have to give them AN. Id, like,
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: DUDE i have an account with every book available in
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: my state, here and, YEAH i didn't have to give
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: them my Social i'm pretty SURE i did.
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: Not maybe Maybe i'm misremembering. THAT i think you have.
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: To you have to give them YOUR, id like you
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: have to upload a picture of YOUR, id WHICH i
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: mean they have to verify your.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Age SO i mean that is what it.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: IS i, mean it's like the same. Thing you, know
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: you have to give them YOUR id when you go
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: to a casino, Too.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: So, YEAH i don't. Know all, right let's finish this, off.
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: MAN i want to get this done in less than
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: an hour, here and we still HAVE wnba And World.
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: Cup i'm gonna give out A World cup play, too
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: SO i do have one more play to give out
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: right at the end of the. Show next game Is
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: Mets atlanta On. Fox by the, Way fox has two.
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: Games these games are both interesting because they're both divisional.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: MATCHUPS i don't really know which one is gonna get
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: more eyes on. It this game does have the best
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: pitcher pitching in any of the two, games Though atlanta
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: did win, yesterday so maybe they're starting to bounce back
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: a little bit after they had a really rough. Stretch
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: they did beat The mets yesterday five to. Three atlanta
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: does have a really good, bullpen but they use four
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: guys out of it. Yesterday The mets also good, bullpen
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: three relievers they used. Yesterday atlanta's the number one, bullpen
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: they're the. Best The mets are ranked number, two AND
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: i don't think they're quite that, good but they are
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: one of the top several, bullpens even though they got
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: the two guys that were a disaster in The yankees last.
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: Year they, like, hey just come to The. Mets you
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: don't even have to sell your. House and they're both
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: doing better with The, mets WHICH i find. Hilarious which
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: Is Devin williams the sole reason why The yankees removed
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: their no beard, rule and Then Luke WEAVER i believe
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: is the other guy. Right hitting, Wise braves are, better
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: but The braves have really struggled. Recently they're, sixteenth now
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: tied with The. RANGERS i think they're better than The,
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: rangers but that's still not. Good they've had this big
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: offensive drop off and they haven't been that good offensively at.
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: Home The mets are dead last, though so The mets
• 57:36
  Speaker 4: are the worst offense. Here The mets are also at
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: a pitching disadvantage because they do Have sean MEN i
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: a pitching although he hasn't been that.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: Bad he's a.
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: VETERAN i, mean he knows what he's doing out, there
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: and he's really not that. Old, STILL i think he
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: might be a little bit excited that he's back in
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: the starting, rotation ALTHOUGH i would be aware that The
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: mets have used an opener in front of him numerous.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: Times this, year but recently they've just let him.
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: Start BUT i would be aware that if you're gonna
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: play this, game you might want to just pick sale
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: must start and don't specify a met pitcher because it's
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: either gonna Be mania or an opener in front Of.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Manaiah but PROBABLY i think they're just gonna let him.
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: Start at this, Point he's got a four point seven
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: to ONE era and one point three to seven.
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: Whip not.
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: Great he is a little bit better on the road
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: four point one to Three Roady. Ray he's allowed no
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: more than three earned runs in any of his starts,
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: here so you, KNOW i, mean he hasn't been that.
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: Bad he actually was good Against atlanta at home back
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: On june, thirteenth six, innings two earned, runs allowed four,
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: hits six, strikeouts no, Walk So mania actually was able
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: to handle this, offense and it.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Was atlanta on the road where they hit, Better so
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: that's a good.
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: Sign manaiah has been able to make it five innings
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: in the majority of these, outings SO.
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: I, MEAN i don't know he's been. OKAY i, mean
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: he's not been a.
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: Disaster he's keeping his team in the, game and he
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: does have good numbers against The braves throughout his, career well,
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: good good ish in seventy three at bats nineteen to
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: four strike got walk ratio to forty seven average n.
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: Ops that's not too. Bad so, Yeah, Mania, yeah numbers
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: not too bad. Here, YEAH, nh, Dude i'm surprised BECAUSE
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: i know that your one book IS. Dk they have
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: a monopoly AND nh The Libertarian. Paradise they have a state.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: Run liquor storm.
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: Monopoly they have extremely high property tax and they have
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: a monopoly on the on online sports.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: Books doing well, There New.
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: Hampshire, yeah, YEAH i, know like and YEAH, dk you
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: want more options than JUST. Dk I'll i'll tell you. That,
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: LIKE i know BECAUSE i have seven books. HERE i
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: find better numbers all the time at the M Lion,
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: book The Roman EMPEROR C, book and the book that
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: starts with A b that's a gym that sometimes their
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: app malfunctions on.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: Me those three books.
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: Give you the better numbers. Usually and the book that
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: is the scoreboard book that used to be owned BY.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: Espn if you know What i'm talking, about that book
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: gives you some good numbers sometimes. Two so, YEAH dk
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: AND fd tend to have the worst numbers out of
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: all those. Books ALTHOUGH i will also make plays at
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: those places, TOO i, mean because you have, to and,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: sometimes you, know sometimes you get kicked off of certain.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: Books but, Yeah i'm.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: SURPRISED i THOUGHT dk didn't give you the plus ones in,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: soccer you know WHAT i. MEAN i, MEAN i understand
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: why you did that to get the price, down but,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: YEAH i, mean, DUDE i don't. KNOW i JUST i
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: for some, REASON i just felt that that game was
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: gonna be a one Nothing columbia.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: WIN i don't know. WHY i, MEAN i do know.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: WHY i mean it just a lot of things kind
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: of pointed at that being what was gonna, happen although
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: of course picking the exact, score a lot of different
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: freak things can happen.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: Anyway Chris sale is pitching For.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: Atlanta obviously we know he's AN ace two point one
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: r a one point eight, whip really good at home
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: one point h nine HOMEY.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: Ra he's been.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: Really good over the course of the whole. Season he's
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: given up more than tour and runs only one.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: Time hasn't faced The.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: METS i don't think this year so somehow he's not
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: wound up having his turn come up during their.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Series he's got.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: A low hit, rate low walk, rate high strikeout, RATE i,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: mean all the right. Things numbers against The mets are also,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: good and sixty seven at, bats twenty to two strikeout
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: walk ratio two thirty nine, average six to sixty four
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: ops For. Anaya by the, WAY i should point out
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: that his really his walk rate is the main issue with.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: Him his hit rate is actually not, great but his
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: walk rate is just way too.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: High and he does still have a decent strikeout.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: Rate so just throwing that out, There mania still has
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: something on his. STUFF i think this game looks like
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: an under to. ME i, MEAN i think both pitchers
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: could do decent. Here they have decent matchup numbers, here
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: both bullpens are pretty.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: Good so, YEAH i lean under in this.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: One it's not on my card or, anything But, MANAIA i,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: mean he's obviously.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: The bigger question mark.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: Here fifty eight percent of the tickets, in eighty seven
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over, though But atlanta's
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: also been struggling, offensively, Man so you got two offenses
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: that might not be in peak form. Here totals at,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: eight which is exactly where the game landed. Yesterday so,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: YEAH i lean. Under and the money is also heavily
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 4: coming in on The. METS i think it's just Because,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: sale you always have a huge price tag On. Sale
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: there is never a sale on him unless he's going
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: up against like The dodgers or something minus one seventy
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: four On. Atlanta here ninety percent of the tickets on,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: them sixty two percent of the cash on The. Mets
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: the public action will be On, atlanta although the public
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: doesn't love laying these huge money, Lines BUT i understand
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 4: why the money's on The. METS i think if you
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: think it's gonna be kind of a lower, scoring closer,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: game maybe The mets have a chance to kind of
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: hang around in that game and just you know it really,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: again knowing how the professionals, BET i think a lot
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: of that action is just because they're looking for value
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: and they're, like, Yeah sale is over, valued so fade that, number,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: basically you know WHAT i. Mean BUT i dig into
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: a deeper than. That the Other fox game is also
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: a divisional Game Saint louis and The, cubs which reminds
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: me of back in the nineties when we were watching
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: The Sosa maguire home run. RACE i was correct about
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: the over in the game, yesterday BUT i did not
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: see it being a seventeen to One Saint louis win
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: With Saint louis not giving up any runs out of their.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: Bullpen, YEAH i didn't see that one.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: Happening Although David, peterson that guy is, awful SO i
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: did predict that.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: Correctly cubs used three relief. Pitchers the relief pitchers.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: Might have gotten a little bit of a break because
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: the bullpen was JUST i, mean because the game was
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: just out of.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Control SO i.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: Think in a game like, that like position players will
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: come in and, pitch you know WHAT i, Mean it
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: just gets out of.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: Control but it does save the. Bullpens Usually Saint louis used,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: two so.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: In a lopside of blowout like, that a lot of
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: times you can look for the bullpens to be in
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: good shape coming into the next. Game this game here
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: looks like it should be A cubs win based on
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: the starting, pitching Which.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: I'll talk about in a. Minute The cubs still have
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen as. Well they're ranked.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: Twelve they're an okay Bullpen Saint louis not as. Good
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: they are twenty. First they're not, horrible. Though cubs are
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: fifth in offense, still even after, yesterday because The cubs
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: scored twenty three runs in the prior, game so that'll
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: that'll help your numbers.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: Out Saint louis is somewhere in the.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: Middle their fourteenth tied With, houston but that was after
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: their explosion. Yesterday and of COURSE i do not like
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: their pitcher going. Today Kyle lahey for The, Cardinals he's not.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: Good four point zero NINETY, ra one point four to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: eight whip not very. Good whip indicates his era should be.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: Higher he also has been bad on the. Road he's
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: been much worse on the road five point three to
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: Five rodio, race so that doesn't look good for. Him
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: he had one start against The cubs at, home where
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: he pitches, better back in Late, may and he didn't
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: make it five innings in that. ONE i think maybe
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: they just had him on a pitch count or, something
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: because he only allowed one, run so it wasn't really that,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: bad but they took him out for some. Reason Lay,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: HE i, mean he's been okay over the last month or,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: so but his walk rate has still been a little
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: bit higher than you want to. See he's got a
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: high hit rate on the, season which isn't. Good his
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: walk rate's still too. High strike out rate is pretty.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: Low he doesn't really strike guys. Out, YEAH i, mean
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: he's just kind of a back end rotation type of.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: Guy his numbers Against chicago against The cubs are not
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: as bad as you would, think ALTHOUGH i don't think
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: that they're. Excellent forty nine at, bats two eighty six averages,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: high but they haven't really hit him for. Power they
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: only have a seven to nineteen ops against, him seven strike,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: outs four. Walks, STILL i don't trust lay. LIKE i
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: don't really expect him to do particularly well. HERE i
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: think this should be a bounce back for The cubs
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: because they got embarrassed. Yesterday dude in an isolated LIKE tv.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: GAME i think that was one of those afternoon games
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: where all the other games are at. Night you don't
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: want that to. Happen he at home and The cubs
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: do have showed to E monaga on the. Mound WHO
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: i think he's still a good. PITCHER i think he's
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: the better of these two. Pitchers four point three era
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: doesn't look that, good but his whip tells you that
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: HIS era should be lower than that one point oh eight.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: Whip it kind of indicates he's been getting a little bit.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: Unlucky he's got a four point five to five HOME.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: Era but LIKE i, said last TIME i looked at his,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: numbers his numbers aren't really that bad at. Home, SO i,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: mean the home runs have kind of hurt him a little.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: BIT i think they were just kind, of you, know
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: just bad timing on the home runs that he's. Allowed
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 4: The cubs have been good behind him. Recently The cubs
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: have won four of his last five, starts and he
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: is pitching a little bit better.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: Here his numbers In june were not that.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: Bad his hit rate was lower than one per, inning
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: three to five strike out walk ratio not really a
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: high strikeout, rate but still a good ratio there not
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: walking a lot of.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: Guys numbers on the season are pretty.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: SOLID i, mean his hit rate is pretty, low walk
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: rate is pretty, low strike out rate is. Okay he's
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: not that big of a strikeout. Guy home runs have
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: been the, issue and it just seems like it's.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: Almost it almost seems. Unlucky he's just a lot a
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: lot of home.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: Runs so he is a fly ball, pitcher but he's
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: not a guy that gives up a ton of, hits
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: so that amount of home runs is a little bit.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: Surprising his numbers against The cardinals are pretty.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: DECENT i, mean he does have the better Bat he
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: does have the better matchup numbers here fifty seven at
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: bats twelve to one strike out walk ratio two twenty
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: eight to average seven to fifteen. Ops so he has
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: better matchup numbers Than lay. Here he actually wasn't good
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: last time Against Saint louis in that same series in Late.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: May gave up five runs and five and a third,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: innings but he got. UNLUCKY i think, again he gave
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: up three home, Runs, like what are you, doing? DUDE
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: i don't know why he's giving up all these home,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: runs especially in a picture friendly park like. THAT i
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: don't know what's going on with. That but we've seen
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: what Him monaga has done throughout his. Career man like he's.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: Made he's had two basically full seasons with The, cubs
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: and his whip is around the same as it was
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: in those, two only a little bit. Higher SO i
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: do think his era is gonna come. DOWN i do
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: think The cubs should win this. ONE i would lean
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: towards The cubs here in some, fashion BUT i know
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: the money's disagreeing with it, though BECAUSE i think the,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: public you, know The cubs are just a big name,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: team the public tends to be on. Them, uh sixty
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: nine percent of the tickets on them and only sixty
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 4: seven percent of the. Cash you do have to lay
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: like minus one sixty if you want The cubs. HERE
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: i think that's still the WAY i would, lean, though you,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: know minus one run line basically that, situation like make
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: your own minus. One the money's also back in the. Under,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: finally by the, way we have A wrigley game with
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: no wind blowing. Out, finally the totals at, eight so
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: it looks like it's a less windy game In wrigley
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: for once, Here so money coming in on the under.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 4: HERE i don't THINK i would touch. That that seems
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: risky to. ME i also think one way that you
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: could do this is possibly With cubs over their team,
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: Total like just take the question Markovim monaga a little
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: bit out of the, equation go with The cubs to
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: just score some runs. HERE i could see that happening
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: you'll probably need him to score, five which is obviously,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: possible especially Against leahy plus a not great. Bullpen all,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: Right Philadelphia Kansas. City LIKE i, SAID i think these
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: teams were off. Yesterday So Kansas city last we saw,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: them they were at. Home they got swept By Tampa.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: Bay so this looks like a decent bounce back, Spot
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: zach For Kansas city here because they got swept at,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: home they had a day, off and they stayed at.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: Home so that's a good situation for them To that's
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 4: a similar situation what The yankees were in. Yesterday though
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: The yankees are way better Than Kansas. City but you,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: KNOW i mean you're sitting around at, home you get
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: a day off after a bad home, Series, yeah you're
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: gonna show up and try to. Win philadelphia maybe overlooks
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: them a little. BIT i, Mean philadelphia is coming off
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: beating Up. Pitts, well actually they split the series Of,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: pittsburgh but that was still a, big you.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: Know pennsylvania rivalry.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: Series but they are starting a road, trip so sometimes
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: you do focus that first game of the road.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: Trip So i'm not gonna say it's a bad spot For.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia the pitching matchup in this game is interesting with
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: a lot of conflicting numbers in this pitching, matchup which
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: makes me not want to play the game because it's
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: like which number do you trust? More you know WHAT i,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: mean home road splits or matchup numbers like which one
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 4: do you? WANT i don't Like Kansas city's, bullpen that's for.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: Sure even though they're, rested they're ranked worst In Major League.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: Baseball it's them In. Minnesota, Man they're both really. Bad
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: philadelphia has the better. Bullpen they're mediocre at. Sixteenth, offensively
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: neither team has been that. Great philly is twenty First
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: Kansas city twenty, second so both offensive have had some.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: Struggles Kansas city is better off offensively at, home, though
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: And philadelphia is worse offensively on the.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: Road this has become.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: More of a hitter friendly ballpark In Kaufman stadium with
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: the walls being moved in Hazus lozardo is pitching for The.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: Phillies he's been decent three point eight to EIGHT era
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 4: one point three whip is a little bit high. Though
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: he is good on the. Road, though so home road,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: splits he is significantly better on the road one point
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: five to FIVE roadi, ray so he's in the way
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: better of his home road. Splits philadelphia has actually won
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: his last what is that seven, starts So philadelphia has
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: been winning behind him recently and he's allowed more Than
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: tour and runs only once over that. Span so he
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 4: is in pretty good form, here except his walk rate
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: is still really. HIGH i, mean this is Like Dylan
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: sees type of stuff, here which you, KNOW i, Mean
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: Dylan sees is. GOOD i, mean, obviously but we're looking
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: at a really high walk rate in addition to a
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: high strikeout.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: Rate so what do you do with? THAT i don't.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: KNOW i don't like a high walk.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: Rate like Man lozardo on the season does have a
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: pretty low hit. Rate his walk grade actually isn't that
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: high on the, season and his strikeout rate is pretty.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: High so, yeah, OVERALL i do like his overall. NUMBERS
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: i don't like that his walk number has been crazy high.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: Recently his numbers Against Kansas.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: City are actually.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: Bad in fifty at, bats they have a three hundred
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: average against him and nine to forty ops in only
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: six of their hitters have faced, him but they've seen
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: a decent amount of.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: Him he's struck out.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: A lot of them, though seventeen, strikeouts three, walks but
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: When Kansas city connects with, him they do a lot of.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: Damage Starling marte And Lane thomas have both hit him really.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: Well so two with that info what you. Want lozardo's
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: better on the road by, far but he also is
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: not good Against Kansas. City he's going up Against Michael,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: waka who is not a walka when compared To. Lozarta
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: waka's the guy that walks way fewer. People waka is
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: still pitching well man three point three to ONE, era
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: one point one four. Whip he's getting up there in,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: age but he's not a strike up. Pitcher he's just
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: a guy that plays his pitch as. Well he's been
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: good at home two point eighty Five Homie, ray so
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: both pitchers are in the better of their home road.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: Splits walker's been pitching well, recently although his team has
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: not been winning behind. Him but it's not really his.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: FAULT i, MEAN i don't. Know he's going pretty deep
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: into most of these, outings not really allowing that many.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: Runs he's not walking like. Anybody he's not really striking
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 4: out a lot of. Guys so that's just what you
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 4: get out of. Him his hit rate has gone up
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: a little, bit but he does have a low hit
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: rate on the. Season his walk rate is pretty. Low
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: strike cut rate is also. Low Against. Philadelphia he does
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: have good, NUMBERS i. Believe, actually, no he. DOESN'T i
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: thought he had better numbers than.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: This my.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: Mistake eighty two at, bats two sixty eight, average eight
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: seventy five ops is not that. Good twenty four strike,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: UPS i, mean it's not. Good twenty four, strikeouts seven. Walks,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: yeah So philadelphia does have a little bit of the
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: upper hand against him. TOO i think because of all,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: that because of what the matchup numbers look, like and you,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: know you have at least one really bad. Bullpen even
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: THOUGH i always talk about when teams are, rested and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: that's the case with this game and with The texas.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: Game when teams, ARRESTED i think it does help The
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: unders because it can cool off the offenses a little
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: bit and the bullpen's get.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: Rest but in this, CASE i think the over is
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: the way to look at this.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: Game you, know LIKE i, said The royals bullpen is really,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: Bad philadelphia's is, Okay but, YEAH i think the over
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 4: might make the most sense in that. Game any more
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: hit or friendly ballpark now in that, STADIUM i don't
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: necessarily want to fade these pitchers.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: Though that's the.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: Thing fifty percent of the tickets on the, under eighty
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: eight percent of the cash on the, over so the
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 4: money is playing the over totals it pretty much nine
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: across the, board which is somewhat, high so you can
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: be right on that key number and. NINE i don't
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: think you can find an eight and a half out there.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: Anymore and as far as the market read, HERE i
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: don't know what's going. On we don't see the money
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: line here that this site is fucked up right. Now
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: and it has the spread On. Philadelphia so if you
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: want to lay the minus one and a half run
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: line On, philadelphia you can get that at about plus
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: one oh five seventy tickets ninety three percent of the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: cash On. Philly so the money is back In. Philly
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: i'm not so sure about. That, YEAH i don't, know.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: MAN i, MEAN i think if you're gonna Back Kansas, city,
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: though WHAT i will say is you, should you should
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 4: do it in the first Five you cannot Back Kansas city's.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: Bullpen BUT i think if you want to Back Kansas,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: city you get them as a pretty big underdog in
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: the first, five AND i Think waka can match up
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 4: okay Against luzardo at, least LIKE i don't think there's
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: a huge, display you, KNOW i don't think there's a
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: huge disparity in this matchup, here you know WHAT i?
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: Mean so there might be some value and looking Towards
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: Kansas city as a dog in the first, five but,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah i'm not gonna play that, game AND i Think
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 4: over is the better look.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: There i'm gonna be right. Back i'll finish this off
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: and my only play remaining is in The World. Cup
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: But i'll be right. Back.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: Yep INSIDE i want to kill. Myself we're ON own.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: Seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: It was just complete.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: Bullshit so that's That's i'm gonna start off this show
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 4: Horrible sunday one and.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: FIVE i don't even know what to tell you about.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: THAT i just don't want to do this. ANYMORE i
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: have never seen anything like.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: This man with the slump, continuing two straight, losses not
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: a good day at.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: ALL own.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 4: FOUR i have not had a good. Season man with
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: wookends the slump That i'm. On the slump Continues i've
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: reached a new.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: Peak, Actually i'm gonna burn my broins. Hat, MAN i
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with The bruins arch.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: Hape is that what it? IS i don't even know
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: it's march? AT i think who even? Knows, MAN i
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: don't know what day is. Anymore BUT i don't even
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: know what day is? Anymore, Man back with you after
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: the worst day THAT i.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: Could possibly, Have back with you AS i always am
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: UNTIL i die at least oh and.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: Two yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: Me own five the worst month That i've ever had
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: in my eighteen years doing.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: THIS i don't know what to even tell you about this.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: Anymore to the, Slump the slump, Discontinuous the slump. Continues
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: somebody fucking kill, me.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: PLEASE i don't even know WHAT i should do at this,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: End it all all.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: Right next game up Is San francisco And. Colorado this
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: game this almost made my. Cut, actually this. GAME i
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: like the total in this. Game you probably know Where
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: i'm going with. That, then Yesterday colorado won fifteen into.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: Three Logan web really. Bad he did start and he
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: was not good in that.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: Game San.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: Francisco their bullpen has really not been very. Good they
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: used three relief pitchers. Yesterday colorado's bullpen is even. Worse
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: they only use one guy out of it. Yesterday BUT
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: i don't think that's gonna help them. Much these are
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: not good. Bullpens Here Man colorado twenty, Seventh giants twenty.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: Fifth their numbers are not, good you.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 4: KNOW i, Mean i'm kind of surprised by that because
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: their bullpen was strong last. Year they have a lot
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 4: of the same. Guys they have a pitcher friendly. Ballpark
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: this is certainly not a pitcher friendly. Ballpark colorado's up
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: to third, OFFENSIVELY i don't think they're that, good but
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: they do have, young talented. Hitters they're hitting well right.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: Now giants are. THIRTEENTH a LITTLE i don't buy. That
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: AS i keep, SAYING i think The giants' offense is
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 4: not good and they couldn't even really get much going
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: In Coors field. Yesterday But feltner pitched For. Colorado feltner
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: is actually probably their best. Pitcher look at the PITCHING.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: Matchic Robbie ray is going For San. Francisco he's, alright
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: three point three to NINE era one point two to. Two,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: whip BUT i do not like how he sets up
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: in this. Matchup he's significantly worse on the, road so
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: that does make sense The giants pitching a pitcher friendly,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: Environment giants pitchers due at.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: HOME i, mean.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: He's got a four point five to four ROAD, era
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: so he's not as good on the. Road he is
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 4: in pretty good form right, now though he's given up
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: no earn runs over his last three, starts picked up
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: a win in all of, them and those starts are
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 4: against The braves in The a's so those are good
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: offenses and he was able to shut them. Down he
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: pitched eight innings a piece in his last two, outings
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: BUT i don't think he's that good Against. Colorado he
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: actually pitched Incoorse field already back in Late, may and
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: he wasn't. Great he went four, innings the defense did screw,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: him though he only gave up one earn run two
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: unearned runs on five hits and four, innings six, strikeouts two,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: walks so he wasn't. Bad BUT i wouldn't say he
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: was good either in that, game although, yes the defense.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: Did hurt heard.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: Him but if you look at his overall numbers, here
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: he's got a low hit, rate which is. Good his
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: walk rate is too high though his strike out rate
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 4: is a bit, low and he's a fly ball pitcher
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: and that is not good in course.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: Field that's an extreme fly ball.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: Rate he does allow some home runs, here so that
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: might not set him up well in course.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: Field and his numbers Against colorado are not.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: Good in forty seven at, bats seventeen to one strike
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio is really, good but he's allowed them
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: to hit three forty off of him with an eight
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 4: oh one, ops so that is not. Good and then
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: on the other, Side Tomoyukis sugano is. Pitching he's not
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: The rockies worst, pitcher like you, KNOW i, MEAN i
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 4: think he's better than people expected him to.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: Be he's.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: SERVICEABLE i would say a four point EIGHT era one
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: point three two whip not, great but not. Awful he's
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: actually been better at, home believe it or, not four
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: point one FOUR, homeira so he actually hasn't been that
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: bad in course. Field he was bad last time out
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: on the road Against. Minnesota two bad starts that happened.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: Recently we're both on the road At minnesota Where minnesota hits.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: Well ALTHOUGH i think he actually got a little bit
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: unlucky in that one because he gave up seven runs
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: on eight, hits and then he was bad at The A's,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: Stadium BUT i mean.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: The defense was kind of bad behind.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: Him a couple of hound runs in, there and The
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: a's stadium is really hard to pitch, in although so
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: is course.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: Field and that was.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: That game where he was backed by twenty three runs
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: from his offense and still won the. Game sugano has
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 4: a really low strikeout. Rate his hit rate is a
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: little bit too, high his walk rate is. Okay he
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: is also a fly ball, pitcher so it is kind
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: of crazy that he's been better in course. Field he
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: gives up a decent amount of home, runs BUT i
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 4: don't know what the deal. Is it hasn't really hurt
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: him that much in course. Field he is facing an
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 4: offense that isn't that good in The, giants but they
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: have been able to get to him only in thirteen at,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: bats though they have six hitters who have fased. Him
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: they have a six fifteen batting average against him in
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: sixteen to seventy seven ops one one strike out walk.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: Ratio it's a really small, sample SO i don't know
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: what to take. Away from, that but it doesn't look
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: like he matches up well. Here SO i think based
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: on the matchup numbers, here, uh the fact That ray
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 4: has a pretty significant drop off on the. Road, Uh
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: sugano is only slightly better at. Home both pitchers ten
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 4: towards the fly ball or trend it towards.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: IT i would go over in this. Game i'm not
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: gonna put it on my.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 4: Car the total is, twelve which is pretty, high but
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: it's a course field, total you, know it.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: Is Even it's even high.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: For a course field, total, Though but the oddsmakers are
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 4: kind of telling you something with that fifty six percent of,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on the over
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 4: money is backing the. Over the money is also Backing
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: San francisco at minus one.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: THIRTY i am not so sure about.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: That fifty one percent of tickets sixty three percent of
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 4: the cash On San. Francisco laying a road priced With
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: San francisco With ray on the mount on the road
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: doesn't seem like the best idea to. ME i, Mean
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: sancis is probably the better team probably in. General ray
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: is the better starting. Pitcher you, know they probably still
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 4: have the better, Bullpen but you, know it's really kind
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: of pushing it to ask them to lay a price
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 4: even like this on the road, Here SO i don't
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: really love. That but the money is On San francisco
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: for what that's. Worth but IF i was gonna play that,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: game it would be an over and that one was
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: close to being a play for. Me, uh that would
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: probably Be IF i was gonna add an additional, play
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: it would probably be That Red sox At. Anaheim Red
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: sox got the win yesterday five to. Two you, Know
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: i'm still pissed about that because the full game went,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: under but my first five under didn't, happen and it.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: Was at the very least about to.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 4: PUSH i don't, know, man The Red sox were able
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: to get runs off Of. Detmers i'm pretty surprised by.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 4: That Like bennett pitch better THAN i thought he would
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: And detmers was worse THAN i thought he would.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: Be so DON'T i don't, know.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: Man Red sox do still have the better bullpen and
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: they're very arrested now after a day. Off they did
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: Use chapman yesterday, though but he had a bunch of
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: days off prior to, that So socks.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: Bullpen is in good shape.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: Here anaheim used three relief pitchers, yesterday but they're not
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: a good. Bullpen anaheim is twenty fourth in. Bullpen The
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: Red sox are, sixth so, Yeah Red sox have the
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. Here Red sox offense is not good though
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 4: at twenty. Fifth they actually have hit better on the
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: road this year, somehow, though and their offense has been
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: at least getting a little bit. BETTER i don't know
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: Did Wilson goatrera's play, yesterday BECAUSE i know he's suspended
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: for more time than he should. Be in my, opinion he,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: played SO.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: I think he must be.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: Appealing and he actually was two for four and scored a,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: run so he was part of that offense from The
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 4: Red sox, yesterday so it looks like he is playing right.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: NOW i guess his appeal is happening right. Now So
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: Wilson contreras is probably in the, lineup and he is
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: The Red sox best hitter at this, point which isn't
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: really saying that, much so, yeah do with that info
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 4: what you. WANT i Guess Sonny gray is pitching for
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: The Red. Sox he's having a good. SEASON a two
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: point six ninety ray one point one to one WIN i,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: mean that is better than you could have expected out of.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: Him like he's been good throughout his. Career he's pretty old,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 4: now but, yeah he's done better than THAN i thought
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: that he. WOULD i thought he would be pretty, good
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: but this is better than. That he's a little bit
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: worse on the road, though three point twenty nine road,
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 4: era so he doesn't do as well on the. Road
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 4: he's coming off a huge startup of The, yankees or
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: he was really. Good one hit them through seven to third,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 4: innings AND i worry that there's gonna be a little
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: bit of a let down here because if you remember that,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: Game gray took a took a no hitter into the
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 4: eighth inning of that. Game he was close to having
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: a no, hitter and he gave up a hit in
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: the eighth inning and.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: Then they took him.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 4: Out and then that was that crazy finish to that
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: series On sunday night where The Red sox blew the.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: Lead they're only winning the game two to, nothing and
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: The Red sox only had one hit through a huge
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: chunk of that. Game Red sox blew the two nothing,
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: lead gave up two runs in the tenth, inning and
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: then The Red socks came back and scored three in
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: the bottom of the tent to. Win that was a
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 4: wild finish in that. Game BUT i worry The gray
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: is gonna be in a little bit of a let
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 4: down because when you get that close to a no
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: hitter and you do it against your arch rival The, Yankees,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: yeah you, know there might be a little bit of
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: a letdown after.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: That but the good news is he didn't really throw
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: that many.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: Pitches he still didn't hit one hundred pitches in that,
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 4: one and he is a, veteran so he's kind of
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: used to, throwing you, know close to one hundred, pitches
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: and you, know you, know in numerous games they've been
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: limiting his pitch count a little bit of though he's
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 4: been limiting it to just been he's been pitching pretty,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: efficiently which is. Good the prior start he was really
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: good in course field though.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: Too he's been good.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 4: Recently he had another pretty good starting against The yankees
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 4: a few starts before. That his strike gout rate has
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: actually gone up. Recently his walk rate's been low over
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: the course of the. Season he's got a low hit,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: rate decent strike got rad, in a pretty decent walk,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: rate so overall, good but AGAIN i do worry about
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: the specific, situation and his numbers Against anaheim are actually not.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: Great in fifty two at bats two sixty nine to,
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: average seven eighty three, ops eighteen to four strike got walk,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: ratio that's not. Great he'll be going up against Sam,
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: aldegary who is really really unpredictable.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: To, me like he's really.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 4: YOUNG i think he does have some, talent and he
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: beat me last time out BECAUSE i went with an
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: OVER i think the last time he.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: Pitched and he bitched well in that.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 4: Game four point eight FIVE era one point four or
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: five with from him is not really that good, though
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: but he's been good at home three point twenty four Homye. Ra,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: again he did pitch well last time out against The,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: a's and The a's are a better lineup than The Red,
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: sox but he did struggle the two previous starts Against
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 4: baltimore And, arizona And arizona has not been hitting. Well
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 4: baltimore is a decent, offense SO i, DUDE i have
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 4: no idea what we're gonna get out of Elde gary.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: Here he still has a walk rate that's definitely too.
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: High his strike gout rate is still not, high so
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 4: that do telling me that he's not really a guy
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: that has like blow you away type of stuff, here
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: you know WHAT i. Mean and his hit rate is still,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: high SO i don't really love his overall numbers. Here,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: HONESTLY i have no idea what we're gonna get out of.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: Him The Red sox four of their hitters have actually faced.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: Him they're one for three off and Romy gonzalez has
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: the only hit against, him it is a. Single narvaias
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 4: has a, walk and they have no strikeouts against, Him
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 4: so that's not really a lot to go on.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: THERE i don't know what to do with this.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: Game maybe you, know the signs are almost indicating more
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 4: for me towards an over. Here the money looks like
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: it is agreeing with the, over but the ticket percentage
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 4: is on the, under which is.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: Crazy sixty three percent of tickets on the.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: UNDER i don't see the public coming in and playing
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: an under in this, game but sixty three percent of
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: tickets and fifty two percent of the cash on the. Under,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: loosely the under is public with less of the money on.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: It at eight and a, HALF i think an over
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: may actually be the approach here With aldegariat don't really
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 4: know if he's really that, good And gray doesn't have
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: particularly good matchup, numbers could be in a letdown. Spot
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: Red sox are very, public nine percent of the tickets on,
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 4: them ninety five percent of the. Cash it looks like
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 4: the money is slightly going in towards, them BUT i
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 4: don't really know about that because they're just really. Public
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: minus one sixty. Something that seems like a bit of
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: a price to lay. THERE i, Know anaheim's, bad, Dude
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: anaheim is actually one of the worst teams in. Baseball
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 4: Red sox ARE i keep saying The Red sox talent,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: wise or at least better than the record, Looks BUT i,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 4: YEAH i don't. Know in this type of setup With
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 4: gray's matchup, NUMBERS i don't think you should be laying
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: a price like that with The Red sox on the,
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: Road SO i Will i'll be staying away from that,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: Game dirty, sock what's?
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: Up thanks for hanging.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: Out miami and the a is another really hitter friendly.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: Ballpark Here a's got obliterated yesterday twelve to.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: FIVE i thought The a's would do better than they
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: did in that game. YESTERDAY i don't don't know what that.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: Was a's used four relief.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 4: Pitchers they are not a good, Bullpen miami, is but
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: they went with kind of a bullpen esque game yesterday
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: and they used five relief. Pitchers miami is actually ranked
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: third still in. BULLPEN i don't think they're that, good
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: but they're a pretty good, bullpen but they're kind of
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: used up right. Now The a's bullpen is bad at twenty,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: third so in this, GAME i kind of THINK i
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: would avoid both bullpens, here or you, know if you're
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: gonna Play, miami maybe you still grab onto their bullpen.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 4: ADVANTAGE i don't know The a's are the better hitting.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: Team they're, Seventh miami's up to, twelfth but that was
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: partially because they've had a couple of offensive. EXPLOSIONS i
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: wouldn't totally buy into that Because miami has played In
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: colorado and in This a's stadium, recently so that's gonna
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: skew their offensive. Numbers sandy Al contra is pitching For.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 4: Miami he's been, okay four point TWO era one point
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: two eight whip AS i keep. Saying he is never
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: gonna return to what he once was.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: Though just too many injuries throughout his.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: Career he's not good on the road five point two
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: Seven Rodier, race so he pitches way better in his
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: pitcher friendly home. Ballpark pitching in course field may not
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: be or pitching into the as, STADIUM i mean may
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: not be. Good he just pitched in course field and
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 4: he did not do. Well he gave up five runs
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: and five to two thirds In he's had five walks
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: that is not good and seven hits three. Strikeouts he's
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: had eight walks over his last two. Starts not really
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: a great. Sign he's a little bit wild right. Now
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: his overall walk rate is not that high on the,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: season though his.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: Hit rate is a little bit.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 4: High his strike out rate is way low now though
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: he just does not blow guys away.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: Anymore uh sounds sounds.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 4: Wrong he also does skew towards the fly ball a,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: bit although it hasn't really translated to him Allowing dapney home.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 4: Runs but he is kind of a fly ball, pitcher
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: which is not great in stadiums like. This The a's
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: only have three hitters who have faced, him but they
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: have done some damage against him to eighty eight average
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: seven to seventy oh ps in fifty two at bats
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: because McNeil somehow has forty at bats against. HIM i
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: think McNeil must have been in his.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: Division i'm.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: GUESSING i don't know where McNeil was prior to this.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: Year was he on The phillies or? SOMETHING i have
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: no Idea mets, actually so, yeah he was on The.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: METS i, forgot but YES i was correct.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: He was in that.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 4: Division but, yeah Ol, condra the guys that have faced
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: him have done damage against.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: Him Aaron savali is pitching for The. A's he's not very.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 4: Good five point zero five, vrra one point five to
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 4: eight whip is not. Good he really struggles in this,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: stadium and you can you can understand. WHY i, mean
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 4: it's not a good stadium for. Pictures six point eighty
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: Three homy rays way worse than his. Roadra, YEAH i
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 4: mean he's just not really that good of a picture.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: Either his hit rate is really. High he's way too hit.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: Aable he's allowed a bit too many home runs. Here
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is not even really that good. Either
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: strike out rate is. Low there's not a lot to
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 4: like With, savali especially pitching at. Home the only thing
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 4: to like is that The marlins haven't really seen. Him
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 4: they only have five at bats against it between two.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 4: Hitters one hit is a single From, ruis one strike
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: got one walk.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: Here there's not a lot to take away from.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: THAT i would not want to Back savale, here, though,
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: AGAIN i think probably the better way to play this
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: game is probably the. OVER i, MEAN i don't know
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: if you could really trust either. Starter miami's bullpen has
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 4: burned out right. Now The a's bullpen is just. Bad
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: the money's backing the, under WHICH i don't really get
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: fifty percent of tickets on the, over fifty four percent
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: Under the total is right on that key number of.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: Eleven but, YEAH i mean.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 4: Oddsmakers obviously you're telling you they think it's a high scoring.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 4: Game it is in this stadium where most games tend
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: to be higher. Scoring, Yeah i'm gonna lean to the
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 4: over in that. One miami also is getting the money's
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: sixty seven percent of tickets ninety two percent of the
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: cash on them at minus one thirty or.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: SO i, MEAN i don't know what to say about.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 4: THAT i, mean if you're Playing, miami, yeah they're the
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: better team in.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: General they do have the better starting pitcher, here and you.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: KNOW i mean they have the better, BULLPEN i guess
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 4: even though they're not. Rested both pitchers are in the
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 4: bad of their home road splits, though so that makes
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: me like the over more than anything else in this
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: game more. So, So, yeah you get the advantage of
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 4: the home road splits being against both starting pitchers there,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 4: Too so, YEAH i like the over, there.
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: You.
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: KNOW i mean that, ONE i guess was somewhat closer
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: to making the. CAT i like the over in The
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: rockies game more Though milwaukee And. Arizona arizona lost the
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 4: game yesterday seven of, four So milwaukee got the. Win
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be tough For arizona to win this game
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: today given what the starting pitching matchup. Is And arizona
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: blew out their bullpen because that was an extra inning game.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: Yesterday arizona basically unloaded their entire. Bullpen they use seven
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: guys out of their. BULLPEN i would not back their bullpen.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: Here milwaukee used, five so their bullpen is bet but
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 4: it's not really a good rest shape right. Now so,
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: yeah the, bullpens maybe you want to avoid them. Here
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: arizona is ranked seventh in bullpen, still their era is
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: still above, four THOUGH i don't love their, bullpen and
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 4: LIKE i, said they're so, unrested.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: There's no WAY i would back that.
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 4: Bullpen milwaukee is the better bullpen even though they' ranked.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 4: Eleventh their era is. Better they just have better arms
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 4: than their bullpen. Man but they're MAYBE i don't want
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 4: to trust them, either although if you're looking at the,
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: SIDE i Think milwaukee does still have the bullpen advantage.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 4: Here milwaukee has been the better offense their Tenth arizona
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: has really struggled the twenty sixth in. Offense and this
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 4: is to, me this looks like a big starting pitching.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: Mismatch milwaukee Has Brandon woodruff. PITCHING i, mean as long
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: as this guy is, healthy he continues to pitch really.
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: WELL a two point five to ninety array point eight
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 4: four whip.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: That's really really.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 4: Good stuff like that puts him in the upper echelon
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: of pitchers. Here he's not that much worse on the.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 4: Road two point eight eight Nine. Rodyra since he came
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 4: back from his recent injury after missing like almost two,
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 4: months he's allowed two hits and eleven and two thirds
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: innings and he hasn't allowed to run along with sixteen
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: strikeouts and two.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: Walks i'd say that's pretty.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 4: Good that was on the road against The reds and
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: at home against The, cobs so not really easy matchups,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: there at least a difficult pitching park to pitch him
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: and a difficult offense to face in The, cobs and
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 4: he pretty much dominated both of those. Starts he's been
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: good over the course of the season as. Well low hit,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: rate low walk, rate pretty high strike cut.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: RATE i, mean everything looks good.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: There numbers Against arizona also pretty good eighty three at,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: bats so we have a big sample. Here two twenty nine,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 4: average six thirty eight, ops seventeen to. Seven strikeout walk
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: ratio is the only bad number here is really That
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 4: like the strikeout walk ratio isn't really that.
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: Good the rest of the numbers are. Good Merrill kelly
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: is going For.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 4: Arizona, YEAH i don't, know, man he has not gotten it.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 4: TOGETHER i thought that he would last a couple more, years,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 4: man because he's not really a hard.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: Thrower but he's.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 4: Gone back to the team where he pitched most of
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: his career and he's been a solid pitcher throughout his.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 4: Career but this year has not gone well for. Him
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: at all five point eight FOUR, era one point five
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 4: to three whip really. Bad he's been horrendous at home
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: eight point one to three homey ra with an opponent
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: batting average of three twenty. Two that is really really.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: Bad hasn't really been good recently. Either low strike out,
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 4: rate high walk, rate high hit. Rate nothing looks good,
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: here and that's the case on the course of the.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: Season too high hit, rate a lot of home runs.
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: Allowed he's definitely a fly ball. Skewed he's got a
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: really low strike cut, rate so he's not fooling. Anybody
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: walk rate is. High nothing looks good from him right.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: Now man numbers Against, milwaukee, though are actually, good believe
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 4: it or. Not ninety at bats one seventy eight, average
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: five sixty four oh ps twenty seven to.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: Nine, RIGHT i got walk, ratio so he does have
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 4: HERE i, mean does that mean you really want to
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: risk it with some sort of under? HERE i wouldn't do,
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: it although based on the matchup numbers it looks.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: Like you, know maybe it could get.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 4: There the money's coming in on the over, though fifty
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets seventy six percent of the cash.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: On the over total is. High it's at nine and a.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: Half IF i was gonna go under as you, could
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 4: as you could, GUESS i would only go under in
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 4: the first. Five there is no way THAT i. WOULD
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: i want to Back arizona's bullpen. HERE i still think
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 4: the better, approach, though is probably to just Play milwaukee
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 4: eighty one.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: Percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on.
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: Them you might be able to find a price on
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: the money line that's below minus one, fifty and that's
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: usually my. Cutoff like if you can find in the
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 4: minus one, FORTIES i guess you could go the money
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 4: line on, this or you could do one of those
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 4: make your own minus one run lines here or. WHATEVER
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: i Think milwaukee has the edge pretty much throughout this. Game,
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: offense bullpen starting perch seems like a big. Mismatch so,
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: YEAH i think some Some milwaukee play does make sense
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: to me in that, game probably more than anything. Else
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: And San diego at The dodgers. Here dodgers have won
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 4: the first two games of this four game weekend. Series,
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: Here San diego should be more. Motivated they're way behind
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: The dodgers right now in the. Standings dodgers at some
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: point might take them a little, bit for, granted but
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching matchup in this game, heavily heavily favors The.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 4: Dodgers the problem is The, dodgers you're gonna have to
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 4: lay a huge price with. Them, Now San diego DOES
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 4: i believe they have the better. Bullpen they used two
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen. Yesterday The dodgers used. Three
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: dodgers have been pretty good out of the. Bullpen they're number,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: five although THE era suggests that they're worse than. That
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: San diego's got a better BULLPEN era, slightly but they ranked.
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: FOURTEENTH i think they're a better bullpen than. THAT i,
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: mean any bullpen that Has Mason miller.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: IN i, mean come.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 4: On, Plus San diego was an elite bullpen last year
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: and they have basically all those same. Guys So miller
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: wasn't even on their team FOR i think a chunk
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: of that season last, year IF i, remember or was
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: it the previous, YEAR i. Forget at some point THE
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: a has traded him over to The. PODRES i think
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 4: that was last.
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: Year.
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: Whatever, offensively, obviously there's a huge disparity with The dodgers
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 4: being number One San diego twenty ninth out of. Thirty
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: Griffin canning is pitching For San, Diego, so LIKE i,
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 4: said this is a pitching mismatch in favor of The.
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 4: Dodgers there's pretty much nothing to like About canning seven
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: point NINETY ra one point sixty six, Whip AND i
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: will point out That San diego has been using an
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 4: opener in front of him a. Lot so if you're
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 4: gonna look at this game and you're gonna find a
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: way to play this, GAME i would say Select yamamoto
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: must start for The, dodgers because it looks like he.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 4: Will AND i would uh select no starting pitchers specified
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: on the podres because it is going to Be canning.
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 4: Pitching it's just a matter of if they put an
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: opener in front of him or. Not this is the
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 4: modern state of, baseball. Man But canning is completely fadable
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 4: in my. Opinion horrible numbers eight point four to one
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: rodio rate really. BAD i, MEAN i don't even know
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: if he's really ever been. Good he's got a high hit,
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: rate high walk, rate strike cut rate is actually, okay
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: but the rest of these numbers are very. Bad he
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: pitched against The dodgers back On may, nineteen that he
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: actually wasn't that bad in that. Out he went five.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: Innings that was In San, diego, though so it's much
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 4: more pitcher. Friendly five to one strike out walk ratio
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: is actually pretty. Good he gave up three runs four,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: hits not too. Bad doesn't typically do that well against The, dodgers.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 4: Though most of these numbers are not. Good in one
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 4: hundred and six at, bats twenty five strike, gouts thirteen,
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 4: walks that ratio is not. Good two thirty six average
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: allowed is actually pretty, good but a seven ninety one
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: ops tell us kind of a different. Story he's allowed
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 4: a lot of, walks a lot of power hitting that's
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 4: not really very, Good SO i do not think he's
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: gonna do well. Obviously Yoshinoba, yamamoto pitching for The, dodgers,
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 4: obviously is a solid pitcher two point six SEVENTY ra
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 4: point eight nine. Whip he is actually a little bit
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 4: worse at home this year three point h four HOMI,
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 4: ra which is still. Good he's allowed more than more
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 4: than two earned runs only a few or more than
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: three ear runs only. Once let's put it that. Way
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 4: he has a really low hit, rate really low walk.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 4: Rate his strikeout rate is. Decent so, yeah, overall he
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 4: looks really. Good he's Faced San diego twice this. Year
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: both of those were on the. Road he was good
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: in both outings though he went to at least six
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 4: innings and both fellowed two or fewer earned.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: Runs in both of.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: Them you, know had a pretty low walk rate in
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 4: both of, them so that all looked. Good it's pretty
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 4: surprising though he actually has bad numbers Against San. DIEGO
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 4: i don't know how that's possible because like half of
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: the games were probably In San, diego which is pitcher.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: Friendly but he's got a two to eighty average allowed to,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: them eight seventy one ohps, allowed and then is including
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: those two good starts against him this, season very very,
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: strange one hundred at bats against, them twenty four strike,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: ups eleven.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: Walks so that is.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: Bad that's a bad ratio. There DO i think he's
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 4: actually in a bitch poorly?
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: Here, NO i. DON'T i think this is a huge mismatch, really.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 4: But you, know if you're gonna, play if you're gonna
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 4: play The, DODGERS i, MEAN i don't know if there's
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: really a way to do. It their minus two sixty
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: basically on the money line.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: HERE i don't think you could do. THAT i, mean that's.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: Ridiculous ninety four percent of tickets on The dodgers eighty
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: seven percent of the cash.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: On, them so the money is fading. Them they're very.
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 4: PUBLIC i, MEAN i guess you could lay the run
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: line with them or something and hope that it gets,
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: there because usually The dodgers usually if they do, win
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: they usually do cover that minus one and a half run.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: LINE i think you might get some runs in this.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: Game the totals at eight and a half money is
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 4: back in the, under WHICH i don't really. Understand fifty
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on the over seventy five percent of
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 4: the cash on the. UNDER i, think given the canning
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 4: is just bad and doesn't have good matchup numbers And
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 4: yamamoto matchup numbers really aren't that, good and both pitchers.
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: Actually are in the worst of their home road, SPLITS
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: i could see the over happening in this.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 4: Game probably you'd need The dodgers to do the heavy, lifting,
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: though so maybe A dodger team total over makes more.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 4: Sense and then you, know you take the question mark
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 4: of Is yamamoto actually gonna be bad for once?
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: Year you take that out of the.
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: Equation dodgers team total over does make some, sense but
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 4: you're probably gonna need him TO i think you might
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 4: need him to score six in this game to get
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 4: that thing, Over so it seems a little, risky but
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: of course they might be able to do. It do
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: with that information what you, want BUT i don't know
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: why money's backing the under.
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: There all, right that's it for baseball four. PLAYS i
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: like the baseball board. Today.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 4: MAN i had a couple other leans, there but it
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 4: was just pricing wise didn't make sense in some of those.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 4: Games TWO wnba. Games one is in the Afternoon Golden
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 4: state In. Atlanta first THING i looked at Was atlanta's
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: returning on from a road, Trips, so you, KNOW i
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 4: don't like. That the road trip went really. Poorly they
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 4: lost all four games on the road. Trip, now they
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 4: did already come back to The east, coast so what
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: they did is they went to The west. Coast then
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 4: they had the break during The Commissioner's cup. Break they
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 4: traveled back to The east coast for that and they
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 4: lost again To. Washington so they were not able to
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: break their losing. Momentum so now they've played since being
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: after the, break but they return. Home but you, KNOW
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: i don't like that the return home. SPOT i think
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 4: it would be worse if they were still trying to
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 4: readjust to the time.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: Zone BUT i don't know IF i love this because.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: Returning, home you, KNOW i, mean it's just a negative
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: spot in, general you get a little bit. Distracted, However
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 4: atlanta is better than their twelve and eight record, looks
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: and they might pay attention because they just lost two
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 4: games during that road trip To Golden, state who is
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: their opponent, Today so there is a little bit of
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 4: a quick revenge mode of. Here AND i talked about
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 4: that BECAUSE i gave out a play On atlanta in
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: game two of those, two AND i think they should
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 4: have won that. Game they had their chances to win that.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: GAME i thought it was a zig zag because the
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 4: first game there was some leading qualities there to that final.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: Score first Game atlanta was their first game out west
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 4: on that road.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: Trips they had to adjust to the time.
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 4: Zone SO i thought they would do better in the second,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 4: game and they did and they should have, won but they.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 4: Didn't but, now after all, that if they lost twice
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: back at, HOME i don't really think they're gonna Overlook
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 4: Golden state here, Man and the fact that they did
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: play a game coming out of the break already means
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: that they at least have played a game after the,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: break Which Golden state has, not SO i think that's
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: an advantage To atlanta And Golden. State they went into
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 4: the break with three straight, wins including two Against, atlanta
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 4: LIKE i, said and then they Beat New, york which
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: was a huge win Because New york is probably the
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 4: best team in The Eastern, conference so they could be
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 4: in a letdown. Spot and they have not played since,
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 4: then which was before The Commissioner's cup, break.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 2: So they've been off for almost a. Week SO i
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: say you.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 4: Got to treat that like a bye where they went
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 4: into that bye week on a great, note winning three
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 4: games in a row against good.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: TEAMS i think that's to disrupt their.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: Momentum, Now, yes they're starting a road, Trip yes they
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 4: should focus On atlanta again because they don't have bigger
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 4: games up. Next so Obviously i'm not gonna play this,
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 4: game BUT i THINK i Prefer Golden state in this game.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: With or no. EXCUSE i THINK i Prefer atlanta in this. Game.
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 4: EXCUSE i THINK i Prefer, atlanta even though they're returning
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: home from the road. Trip atlanta fifty four percent of
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 4: tickets on, them seventy four percent of the cash On
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: Golden state, Though so the money is Grabbing Golden. State
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 4: BUT i actually don't THINK i agree with. IT i
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: Think atlanta has more. Advantages man, AGAIN i Think Golden
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: state could have their momentum. Disrupt it could be a
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 4: letdown spot for. Them it's a double zigzag basically For.
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: Atlanta at this point, here people are gonna wonder Why
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: atlanta is laying four and a, Half, like who's gonna
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 4: want to lay four and a half With atlanta right
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 4: against A Golden state. Team it has a better. Record
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 4: atlanta's also better at home though they're six and two at.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: Home Golden state's only three and four on the. Road so,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: YEAH i Like atlanta in that, one even THOUGH i
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: don't want to play it and the money is completely
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 4: going against. It so that's ON cbs And Paramount. Plus
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 4: the late game is a lot less. Interesting uh it's you,
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: know the first game is two good, teams the second
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: game is too bad Teams portland And. Seattle but the
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 4: first thing you're gonna notice Is seattle's laying three and a, Half,
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: like who's gonna want to lay three and a half
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 4: With seattle when they have like the second worst record
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 4: in the.
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: League they probably are the second worst team in the.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 4: League, maybe But Portland, portland even though they have the better,
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 4: record the odds makers are obviously telling you something by
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: Lining seattle minus three and a half. Here SO i
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: pay attention when the odds makers are telling you, something
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: because they're telling You seattle should win this, game even
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 4: though the records make it look like you should jump On.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: Portland oh my, god the better record getting.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 4: Points whenever you see, That, yeah to, ME i always
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 4: think there's something going on, there AND i tend to
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 4: want to go in the other direction and trust what
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are telling, you like they're almost signaling
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 4: to you now looking at the spot. Here seattle did
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 4: just get out blown out By, phoenix and that was
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 4: their first game out of the. Break So seattle did
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 4: well going into the. Break BUT i thought they were
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: gonna lose To. PHOENIX i. TALKED i talked about that
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 4: on the. Show seattle had gone into the break with
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: huge wins Over New york And, atlanta came out of
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: the break and they were just completely.
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: Flat they got. Destroyed phoenix is.
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 4: Definitely better than people think they, are and definitely better
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 4: than At seattle now after that blowout. LOSS i Know
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: seattle's returning, home but it was only a single game
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 4: road trip and they're not really changing time zones a
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 4: whole bunch. HERE i think maybe one time zone different or,
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 4: whatever Although arizona doesn't even really have time, ZONES i don't.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 4: Know seattle did lose At portland the last time they played,
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 4: them So seattle should have some focus here and again
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 4: playing out of the break and having a bad loss
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 4: should give, them you, know like they should get some
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 4: momentum back at, least Whereas.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: Portland they have not.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 4: Played since the, break although they did go into the
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 4: break on kind of a bad. Note they lost three
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 4: games in a row going into the, break SO i
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: talk about it being a bye a lot of. Times
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 4: they'll be able to use that time off to fix
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 4: things and. Readjusts but the last win that they had
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 4: was Against, seattle so they might Overlook. Seattle their last
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: game was a four overtime, game and they've had a
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 4: lot of time to rest since, then so that helps them,
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 4: Out like if they had played like two days, later
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 4: they would have been in a really bad spot off
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 4: a four overtime.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: Game but the fact they've had all this rest should help.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: Them but then, again they also might be looking ahead
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 4: because they do Have vegas And atlanta coming up and
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 4: those are bigger.
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: Games SO i think, Overall.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna Lean seattle, here and again the odds makers
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 4: are telling you something with that.
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: Number the money is agreeing with.
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 4: That portland sixty percent of the tickets and only fifty
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 4: six percent of the. Cash So portland is one of those,
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 4: rare dreaded public underdogs where the public is on them
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: and less than the money is on. Them SO i
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: do like that because it means you're getting the team
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 4: that the odds makers are telling you as the better
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 4: team and should win this, game and going against the
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 4: public at the same, time you're.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: Gonna have to lay about FOUR i think with that number.
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 4: There but, yeah that's WHAT i would do in that,
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: game IS i would lean To.
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 2: Seattle then we Have World.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 4: Cup there's one afternoon Game canada And morocco In, Houston.
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 4: Morocco it's Interesting morocco is having to come in From,
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 4: mexico So morocco's traveling through customs to get. Here canada
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 4: is actually not going through customs because they actually played
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 4: their last game not In. Canada their First knockout round
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 4: game was In la so they're already in THE.
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: Us so does that Help canada a little? Bit?
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 4: Maybe Now morocco is the better team Like, canada they
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 4: just really.
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: Have not faced good competition. Yet Man.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: Canada they had a draw With, bosnia which is kind
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: of alarming Because bosnia is not. Good canada Crushed, cutter
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 4: but they were one of the worst teams in this.
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 4: Thing they lost To. Switzerland switzerland is the best team
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 4: they've played so far in this.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: Thing and then they Beat South. AFRICA i mean.
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: Whatever that's How canada advanced in the first knockout, game
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 4: and that Was canada was bad in that.
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: Game Do that was this zero zero.
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 4: Game that was about to go into extra time And
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 4: canada scored like at the very end of stoppage time
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 4: to win that. Game that's not a good sign For, canada, Dude,
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: like they're clearly the worst team. Here morocco does have
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: a bit more, experience even though some of those guys
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: that were on their team for that run in the
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 4: Last World, cup are not there. Anymore morocco is minus
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 4: one forty on the three away here and three.
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 2: Way that's.
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 4: Hot and, remember you know if you play the three
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 4: away and only factors in.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 2: The first ninety.
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: Minutes but you, know probably if you're gonna Play, morocco
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 4: that's probably the way to do, it, though to just
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: lay the minus one forty on the three away and
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 4: get them to win in the ninety minute time and
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: have the game not.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: Go to extra. Time they're certainly capable of doing.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: That morocco has definitely been more challenged during this like
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: they've faced some better teams. Here man they had draws
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: Against brazil and The netherlands and they beat The netherlands
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 4: and penalties to advance in the. Knockouts so, Yes, morocco
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 4: they're more battle tested. HERE i know they had some
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 4: easy games in there as well Against. Scotland didn't look
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 4: great in that, one and then they Beat, haiti which is.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: Whatever but still they're more battle tested Than.
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 4: Canada canada has not played anybody as good As brazil
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: or The, netherlands and you could make the Argument morocco's
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 4: better Than, switzerland so this might Be canada's most difficult
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 4: match so, far so that it makes it sound LIKE
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: i Like morocco, HERE i don't, know because WHEN i first,
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 4: saw Well morocco just had that huge upset win over The,
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: netherlands my instinct, was you gotta Fade morocco in the next,
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: round because when a team does that and they pull
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 4: off a big upset against a really strong opponent like The,
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 4: netherlands and you, know you dig into this.
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: Game it wasn't misleading, Though that's the.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: Thing so like usually WHEN i see a team that
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 4: pulls off an upset like, that and by the, Way,
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 4: morocco they were about to lose that, game and they
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 4: scored in stoppage time to even send the game into
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 4: extra time and then its. Penalties that's. Crazy and, again
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 4: when a team pulls off a big upset like, that
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 4: USUALLY i want to fade them in the next stage
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 4: because people are gonna overvalue.
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 2: Them but this was not.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 4: Misleading netherlands had zero point two four expected goals in that,
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: game which is. Crazy morocco actually dominated the. Game they
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 4: had one point three to eight expected, goals and they
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: had seventy percent of possession and more of the, shots
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 4: and the bigger chances and they were just they had
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: a way better passing.
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 2: Game it's crazy you wouldn't think.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 4: That like usually you don't see that when you see
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 4: what looks like kind of a fluke win like that
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 4: from an. Underdog usually you're dig into the stats and it's, like, oh,
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah netherlands won the game, statistically but they. Lost that's
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 4: not the. Case SO i Think morocco probably does get this.
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 4: DONE i Think morocco probably. WINS i think they're. BETTER
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: i know they're in a potential letdown, spot but the
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: fact that that wasn't a misleading, result the fact That
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 4: morocco's more battle.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: TESTED i don't love that they're coming up From.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: MEXICO i don't love that they did just pull off a,
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 4: huge unexpected win and it, was you, know one of
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 4: those really dramatic.
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: Finishes SO i don't love.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: That but they are the better, teams SO i don't
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 4: really want to fade them. Here WHAT i am going
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 4: to do is find a way to Fade paraguay, though
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 4: because their win was. Bullshit paraguay is and they're.
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 2: Terrible, yeah so we're gonna fade.
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 4: Them how do we do? That, Though, well you could
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 4: lay they're playing Against. FRANCE i, mean every it's no
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 4: secret That france is the best team in this whole,
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 4: thing and.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: OBVIOUSLY i don't See france losing.
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 4: Here these games are both On, fox by the, Way
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 4: fox Won telemundo. Whatever france's minus five seventy five on
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 4: the three way they're going to WIN i mean most.
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 4: LIKELY i mean obviously you can't really play them that way,
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 4: though SO i think you have to look at different
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: markets for. This so what do we do here to
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 4: try to find a way to jump On france? Here,
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 4: well you can lay the spread which is minus one
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 4: and a, half which doesn't sound too, bad but you
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: do have to you'd be paying a price LIKE i did,
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 4: Yesterday so that is an. Option LIKE i laid minus
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 4: one sixty or so with the gonea plus one and
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 4: a half, yesterday you could lay the minus one and
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 4: a half With france, here but you will have to
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 4: lay about minus one sixty to do.
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: That that is an.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 4: APPROACH i don't disagree with doing it that. Way so
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 4: you Need france to win by two, goals you could
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 4: do it that.
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: Way maybe that's not a bad.
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 4: Approach, now the other way to do it is the
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 4: Way i'm actually gonna go with.
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: This this is another best, bet and that first baseball
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 2: game is.
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 4: STARTING i, apologize but at LEAST i did get my
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 4: opinion out. THERE i Liked pittsburgh in the, game but
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: you know it's not Gonna it's not a play for me.
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 4: Anyway i'm gonna give Out france over their team total
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 4: of two and a half.
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 2: HERE i think they can get this. DONE i know.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 4: It maybe it seems too, public maybe it seems. OBVIOUS
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 4: i mean it looks like a pretty good price on,
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 4: that which does worry me a little. Bit you're gonna
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 4: need to score three goals. Here And paraguay in their,
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 4: GAMES i know they haven't really they haven't allowed that
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 4: except for to THE. Us that was the only Time
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 4: paraguay did allow more Than paraguay allowed more than one
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 4: goal goal only once against THE, us and there was
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 4: an own goal as part of. That but even, so
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 4: if you look at their other, matches you know these
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 4: are really really. MISLEADING i, mean in the game Against, turkey,
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 4: yes they were down a, man so that Means turkey
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 4: put up more offense than they probably would have.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 2: Otherwise but if you look at.
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 4: The stats in this game AS i already pointed Out
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 4: turkey had two plus expected goals in this, one but
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 4: they didn't actually score, any so they expected. Goals tell,
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 4: You paraguay's defense was not as good as it seemed
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 4: to be and they got pretty much, dominated like they
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 4: should have lost this. Game So, paraguay, YEAH i, mean
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 4: they're not that. GOOD i pointed that. Out and then
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 4: the game Against, AUSTRALIA i, MEAN i kind of throw
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 4: this game out because these teams BOTH i think pretty
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 4: much knew they were both going to advance. It they
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 4: both took a draw to get to four, points SO
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 4: i think they kind of just played to a draw
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 4: here in this. One SO i think the game was
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 4: just they weren't really trying to go all out to,
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 4: score you know WHAT i, Mean so, that you, know
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 4: just kind OF i throw this game, away like they
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 4: were just really really limited.
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 2: Expected goals in this.
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 4: One both teams had about fifty to fifty on the,
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 4: possession not a ton of, shots no big. CHANCES i
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 4: just think both teams were just satisfied with a draw
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 4: in this, game you know WHAT i. Mean it was
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 4: like a gentleman's agreement, Almost so let's just both play
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 4: to the, draw and we'll both get to the knockout,
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 4: stage you know WHAT i. Mean and also Playing. AUSTRALIA i,
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 4: mean DID i Say. AUSTRIA i Meant. Australia australia. Sucks
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 4: they're way worse Than. Austria And australia is now out
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 4: AS i said they would be because they lost To egypt.
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 4: Yesterday although it was, close it went to. Penalties but,
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 4: yeah what else are they gonna? Say, yeah So i'm
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 4: not impressed By paraguay. There and then the reason Why
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 4: i'm really fading them is because everybody's freaking Out. Paraguay
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 4: they just Beat. Germany, man THE us is so. Good
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 4: THE us is better Than. Germany because THE us Beat
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 4: paraguay four to one And germany couldn't even beat. Them settle, down,
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 4: MAN i KNOW i give out a losing play on
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 4: this With germany minus one and a, half But, paraguay
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 4: this is a misleading.
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: Win germany actually dominated the game statistically if you look at.
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 4: It, germany let me, see they had one point five
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 4: to seven expected. GOALS i know that's not, three But
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 4: france is also a lot better Than. Germany paraguay had
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 4: point three to five expected, goals so they were not
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 4: good in this. One Uh germany had seventy six percent
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 4: of the, Possession they had more shots on, goal way more.
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 4: Passes Like paraguay is giving up more offense than it looks.
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 2: Like, Man that's What i'm saying, here Uh.
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 4: Germany you, know they really should have won that game
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 4: based on the. Statistics i'm, mad, obviously BECAUSE i don't
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 4: like taking a, loss BUT i Think paraguay is definitely
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 4: in a fade. Spot like everybody's talking about, This oh my, God,
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 4: paraguay they is so.
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 2: Good AND i Know france is a very public. SIDE
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 2: i get.
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 4: It it almost feels like Cape verdae, yesterday but Cape
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 4: verde that was their first knockout round, match, Right like
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 4: Cape verde's hype was only from what they did in
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 4: the group. Stage paraguay did this in the knockout stage
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 4: and they did it in a dramatic fashion in. Penalties
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 4: so the way that they won that so, Dramatically, YEAH
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 4: i don't think they're gonna be able to replicate. That
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 4: france is totally. Legitimate france is going to get at
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 4: least to the semifinals at this. Point And, france this
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 4: is the other. Thing france has scored at least three
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 4: goals in every single match in The World. Cup they
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 4: scored three Against, senegal three Against, iraq which doesn't really impress,
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 4: anybody four Against, norway although it was Against norway's, BACKUPS i,
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 4: know but still tons of, offense and then three Against.
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 4: Sweden this is a prolific and very Deep france. Offense
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 4: so they've scored at least three in every single. MATCH
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 4: i think they can do it. AGAIN i, mean we're
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 4: basically banking On france scoring exactly three. Here they need
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 4: to get it. DONE i think they could do. It paraguay.
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 4: Blows neither team has really a travel edg. YEAR i
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 4: think both teams played somewhere in The northeast prior to
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 4: going to this game In. PHILADELPHIA i Think france is
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 4: coming in From Foxboro, Stadium Gillette, STADIUM i, mean, Sorry Boston.
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 4: STADIUM i Mean PARAGUAY i think played In East rutherford
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 4: And New, jersey so they have a shorter. Trip but
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 4: both teams have a short trip here doesn't. MATTER i
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 4: Like france to either win this game by the spread
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 4: or over their team. TOTAL i like this because it
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 4: was just a better. Price, Basically i'm worried that it
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 4: seems too. Obvious but that's What i'm, doing and that's
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 4: gonna do. It, Man SO i gotta get out of.
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 4: Here i'm gonna go to a thing at my parents'.
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 4: House it's cookout. Time everybody eats some burgers and hot dogs. Today,
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 4: MAN i was just watching an Older bob's. Burger i'm
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 4: trying to catch up On bob's. BURGERS i do like the,
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 4: show even Though i'm really angry at them for Firing
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 4: Jimmy pesto because he was At january. Sixth just total,
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 4: bullshit and you, know He's bob's. NEMESIS i, mean he's
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 4: one of the good characters in the. Show total. Bullshit
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 4: BUT i like the. Show it's a funny. Show AND
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 4: i just watched an. Episode it's an episode Where bob
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 4: gets forced into having to go on this road trip
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 4: With teddy and it's just extremely annoying the whole. Time
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 4: teddy's stopping everywhere to talk to. Everybody but they get
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 4: hot dogs on the. Trip at one, POINT i just
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 4: laughed so hard at this one line because it's just so,
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 4: dumb Like teddy was, like it was, Like, bob are
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 4: you even allowed to eat hot dogs like you're a burger.
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 4: Man aren't hot dogs and burgers? Enemies And bob was,
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 4: like uh, NO i think they're.
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 2: Friends.
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 4: DUDE i don't know WHY i laughed so hard at,
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 4: that BUT i was just thinking about it's like so.
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 4: Appropriate we're going to a cookout. Today, yeah we're gonna
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 4: hot dogs and burgers are. Friends, Man we're having both
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 4: of those at these cookouts. Today, yeah have some. Fun,
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 4: everybody stay, safe you, know if you're drinking and lighting
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 4: fireworks off and, whatever although oh you're not.
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: Allowed to do that in certain. Places oh my. God
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 2: just don't blow your fingers.
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 4: Up don't Be, Jason, Pierre paul and, uh don't do
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 4: anything stupid if you.
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 2: Drink that's All i'll. Say stay safe everybody that's gonna do.
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 4: It oh my plays, Today, Yes Texas, rangers money, Line
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati red's first five money, Line White, Sox indians first
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 4: five under four full game, Raise astros under seven and a,
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 4: half And france in The World cup over team total
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 4: of two and a.
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 2: Half five plays. Today stack.
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 4: BOARD i told YOU i liked the baseball board AND
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 4: i had some other leans in. There you saw my
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 4: leans the over in The rockies game was pretty close the.
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 4: MONEY i Think pittsburgh Run line or something like that
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 4: would have been close to making the cut for me as,
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 4: well AS i, mentioned but The money disagreed with. That
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 4: the game's already started BECAUSE dc is doing The freedom
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 4: to fifty, whatever so it's an early game. There so
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 4: that game already, started BUT i do not have a
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 4: play on.
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 2: It that's gonna do. IT i gotta get out of.
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 4: Here learn it tone On, twitter learn it on On, instagram,
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 4: like subscribe to the show.
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: Here let's get to five. Hundred, man we're. Close come.
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 4: On listen on an Audio Apple spotify spreaker covered in
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 4: yuke on. YouTube i've been putting up some stuff THAT
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 4: i could do vocally without straining my, vocals so check that.
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 4: Out i've been putting some new stuff up there my yuke, Covers,
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 4: patreon dot, com slash learn It. TONE i still gotta
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 4: update that feed over. There i'll get to it and
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 4: get some of those requests once my voice is, back
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 4: which hopefully it will. Be but this show doesn't help
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 4: doesn't help, it SO i gotta calm down AFTER i
• 2:04:44
  Speaker 4: do the.
• 2:04:44
  Speaker 2: SHOW i gotta rest my.
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 4: Voice loser casts Every tuesday. NIGHT i know it was
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 4: On monday the last. Couple, well we did A monday
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 4: And tuesday show last week and then or two weeks ago,
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 4: whatever and then this past week we were On.
• 2:04:59
  Speaker 2: Monday but we will be On tuesday, still so check that.
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 4: Out giants G spot Podcast New York giants will be
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 4: back at some. Point AND i was supposed to be
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 4: On here's The, thing which is the same dudes from
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 4: The pick Is in, podcast but that was postponed last,
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 4: night SO.
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 2: I may be on, tomorrow ALTHOUGH i don't think it's.
• 2:05:19
  Speaker 4: LIVE i think it's pre, recorded SO i think if
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 4: we record, tomorrow it will be On monday or. Something
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 4: probably is when it'll be, released so be.
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 2: On the lookout for.
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 4: That THAT'S i think more of just a conversational type of,
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 4: show But i'm sure sports will definitely be one of
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 4: the topics of. Conversation that's gonna do it happy for, Everybody,
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 4: happy celebrate the independents of your nation.
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 2: By blowing up a small part of.
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 4: It if you've seen That simpsons, episode classic, episode the
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 4: one where they're in that summer vacation town And lisa
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 4: is hanging.
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 2: Out with the cool. People if you don't know WHAT i.
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 4: Mean go check it. Out Classic simpson's. Episode but there's
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 4: an A.
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 2: Pool like character of, course at the.
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 4: Of course they allowed those characters back then because everything
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 4: wasn't just total woke bullshit back. Then but there's an
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 4: A pooh esque character at the convenience store, there And
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 4: homer is, LIKE i want some illegal, fireworks and he
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 4: gives them the massive firework and you, know of Course
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 4: homer is an idiot with. It, whatever celebrate the independence
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 4: of your nation by blowing up a small part of.
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 2: It go do. That that's gonna do. It. Peace but
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 2: don't you go. Quiet don't you fade from the.
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 1: Floor your name still means something to somebody for. Show
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 1: put the glass, down, baby look at.
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 2: Me no.
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 3: Hold, on hold on notting hold, on hold on.
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 4: Me for.
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 3: That bites, hot BUT i don't get the. Crown hold,
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 3: on hold
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 2: On stay with me, now