Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 379 - 10/22/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems go with Josh appelbaum starts now Hello and
- 0:15welcome to. Episode 370. 9.
- 0:18Of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
- 0:22Rhythm, I'm your host Josh Appelbaum.
- 0:30What's going on, everyone? Happy Wednesday, it's officially
- 0:33Hump. Day.
- 0:33That means we are halfway through our work week.
- 0:35We are one day away from Thursday Night Football,
- 0:38Minnesota and the LA Chargers. Chargers did move -3 up to -3
- 0:431/2. Totals ticking up as well.
- 0:46Open as low as 42 1/2. Up to around 44 and a half 45,
- 0:49so stay tuned. We'll have a play.
- 0:51Here, most likely on tomorrow's podcast.
- 0:54I don't want to see anything jumping out again.
- 0:55Didn't see the line move. Toward the Chargers, but.
- 0:58Let's see how this thing develops over the next. 24 hours
- 1:00or so. But because it is a.
- 1:02Wednesday, we're going to talk NFL.
- 1:04Early Sharp report plays because as we're steaming closer to NFL
- 1:08Week 8 now, believe it or not, seasons.
- 1:10Flying by? Almost.
- 1:11Halfway through, which is crazy, but I do have.
- 1:13A three pack of early plays for this upcoming Sunday that caught
- 1:16my eye, including a They're all dogs.
- 1:19They're all pretty gross. 1 is a.
- 1:21Super sharp divisional reverse. Line move dog 1 is a primetime
- 1:25dog where you can. Still get a.
- 1:26Hook at a particular book and another one is a really, really
- 1:29gross line freeze play where everyone.
- 1:31'S playing that road favorite. See if we can get some get some
- 1:34points here. Get the hook and cover.
- 1:36With this this home dog so a three pack of.
- 1:38Early NFL plays for today. Which is what?
- 1:41We do on Wednesdays and then also we're going to get right.
- 1:44Back to the NBA, because we do have a loaded slate in the NBA
- 1:48tonight. 12 games overall and I did find 1 angle that caught my
- 1:52eye. It is a total that I'm hoping
- 1:54will go. Over the number.
- 1:55So we'll talk some NFL. We'll also talk some NBA on
- 1:59today's podcast, Episode 3. 79 of the ASG.
- 2:02Pod powered by rhythm. On a big Wednesday.
- 2:05Now looking back to our. Last night, guys, we.
- 2:07Kicked off our NFL or. NBA season, I should say, on a
- 2:10winning note. And it wasn't easy.
- 2:12It didn't look good. Great early.
- 2:14But one and O plus. 0.87 units, we had a winner with the
- 2:18Warriors and the Lakers over and if you notice that a couple of
- 2:21you guys you guys are getting. So sharp out there.
- 2:24Because if you you DM me on Twitter and again you can.
- 2:27Always follow me at Josh under Score Insights, the DMS. Are
- 2:29open, I'm always available. To bounce ideas off of you got
- 2:32questions about you know? Whether it's Juice Reel Rhythm.
- 2:35Just betting concepts in general, or novig or odds logic,
- 2:38whatever. The case may be but a couple
- 2:40people. The game started at at 10 and it
- 2:43was kind of annoying because the Rockets game went into overtime
- 2:46and. Basically we missed a.
- 2:48Lot of the first quarter. But before the game started
- 2:51bunch of you guys DM me and said have you seen that total it's up
- 2:54to 227 1/2. So before the game even started.
- 2:58When you can beat the closing line.
- 2:59When you can bet. When you can bet an over 220. 5
- 3:021/2 Remember. That was the importance of
- 3:04getting Bet MGM over 220. 5 1/2. -115.
- 3:08At the time, all the books. Were at 2:26 2/26.
- 3:10And 1/2. But if you had an over 225 1/2
- 3:13at like. 2:00 in the afternoon and by the time the game is
- 3:16about to start. It's up to 220. 7 1/2.
- 3:19Again, you don't. They don't.
- 3:21You don't get. A medal for closing line.
- 3:22Value and it's not a guarantee of a winner.
- 3:24But that told. Us that we read that game
- 3:26correctly and the market ticked up and we got the game.
- 3:30With a total. Here to the over.
- 3:31At a better price than. What it closed at, so that was a
- 3:33very good sign going into the game.
- 3:36Now first quarter. Did not look good.
- 3:37This is why you got to stick with your bet and never get too
- 3:40high or too low. Don't.
- 3:41Get cocky and think you're guaranteed a win when things are
- 3:43looking good early, but also don't give up and think you're a
- 3:46dead dead loser there just because the.
- 3:48The start isn't what you wanted. But they only scored 50 points
- 3:51in the 1st. Quarter and it was like, you
- 3:53know, kind of getting blood out of a.
- 3:54Stone to just get any. Scores Doncic.
- 3:56Was really the only guy scoring, but then they loaded it up in
- 4:00the. Second quarter and had a big
- 4:02third and fourth quarter and ended up landing.
- 4:04On 2/28, so again over 225 1/2, even if you got a late 227 1/2,
- 4:09you still catch the over but open 225 1/2, close 227 1/2,
- 4:14landed 228. I mean, if that doesn't go to
- 4:16show you the importance of getting an early number.
- 4:18But also. This is why sports.
- 4:20Betting is hard, guys. The odds makers are so good at
- 4:22what they do. They're almost spot on with that
- 4:25total but. We did get that winner.
- 4:27Which was nice and also had a juice.
- 4:29Real sharp mush over. Tons of betting system matches
- 4:32on the over the Play app for tonight has a similar system
- 4:35match and then also had a good rhythm prediction there.
- 4:38So nice to start our. NBA season on a hot note.
- 4:42Now that being said, let's get right back to the NBA because
- 4:44there's a huge slate tonight and.
- 4:46I'm going to focus on. Another late game.
- 4:49So there's a 10. O'clock game.
- 4:50Between the Sacramento Kings. And the Phoenix Suns.
- 4:54Now one thing I noticed. About this game is the fact that
- 4:57we did see this line tick up pretty big in.
- 4:59Favor of the Suns. They were like a -, 1 1/2
- 5:01opener. Now they're up to -4.
- 5:03That might have been because. Demontis Sabonis was out for
- 5:06this game, but I'm going to focus.
- 5:08On the total here. I'm going to play another over.
- 5:10So give me the king. 'S sons over 2. 28 1/2.
- 5:15Now the. Important thing here is you get
- 5:17the 228 1/2. It is available at a few books,
- 5:20but you definitely want to get the best juice price you can
- 5:22because I have a fanatics. Account I'm in Massachusetts if
- 5:26you have fanatics. Available to you as well.
- 5:28You can get over 228 1/2 at -110 so just a nice standard.
- 5:32Play, but I'm looking at. ESPN bet over 220. 8 1/2 - 115
- 5:37Same thing with DraftKings. Same thing with Bet MGM, but
- 5:40Caesar's at 2:29 and FanDuel is at 2:20. 9 1/2 So this is kind
- 5:46of like last night's game where it stayed the same or ticked up.
- 5:50Obviously ticked up late with that Lakers game last.
- 5:53Night, but trying to get the best of the number in the best.
- 5:55Juice price, which would be Fanatics over 2. 28 1/2. -110 So
- 6:00from the standpoint of OK, open 220 1/2 to either stay.
- 6:03The same or risen up. That's telling us that we have
- 6:05some. Indication of respected money
- 6:07going over. I look at the bet splits, they
- 6:09look really good. At both DraftKings and Circa.
- 6:12Right now at DraftKings, the King's sons over.
- 6:15Is only getting 64. Percent of bets, but 83% of.
- 6:18Dollars so good low. Bets higher dollar split and
- 6:21then over at Circa. In Vegas, which caters to.
- 6:24Sharp betters, pros, wise guys, takes their action, doesn't boot
- 6:28them or limit them or turn them away.
- 6:30Right now, 80% of bets, nearly 90.
- 6:33Percent of the money is on the over.
- 6:35So I like that at DraftKings it's low bets, higher dollars,
- 6:37but also it's not that public like. 64% technically is public.
- 6:41But it's not like it's. 7080. Percent whereas out in Vegas.
- 6:44Heavy, heavy bets in dollars. On the over SO totals.
- 6:47Either stay the same. Or ticked up, We got low bets,
- 6:49higher dollars on the over at DraftKings at Circa.
- 6:52I mentioned that the system match which cashed with the
- 6:55Lakers over last night, same thing lighting up on this.
- 6:57Kings game because when you look at a total in which the.
- 7:00Over rises at least 1/2. Point off the opener, obviously
- 7:04it's one and O. With a winner last night, but
- 7:06since the start of last season that system match total rises.
- 7:10At least 1/2 point take the over.
- 7:12Since the start of last year. The 2024 season.
- 7:15It is 3/30. 2 and 265 that is a 56.
- 7:20Percent win rate and it is a 6% ROI.
- 7:23Now that's a big sample. Size you're looking at, you
- 7:25know, close to like 600 games, but your money won.
- 7:29Is 36 units. So $100 better taking every.
- 7:32Total that goes up at least half.
- 7:33Point is up nearly $3600. That also lights up here on this
- 7:37over. Of course it is a short spread.
- 7:41So one of the reasons why we like that over last night is the
- 7:43short spread, which, you know, theoretically.
- 7:45Means it's going to be. Competitive game back and forth.
- 7:48Scoring, maybe get overtime. You know, you looked at that,
- 7:52that rockets game, which line did move to the Rockets +8 down
- 7:55to 6 1/2, but. That was a close game that went
- 7:58to OT. You actually needed that OT to.
- 8:00Cash that over. It wasn't going to cash if that
- 8:02ended in regulation. And by the way, they should have
- 8:05called. Kevin Durant trying to call
- 8:06timeout. No timeouts left to Chris
- 8:08Webber. They didn't call that.
- 8:09That was. Annoying.
- 8:10They should have called it and I had no dog in the fight.
- 8:11I was just waiting for the Lakers game to start.
- 8:14The other thing I would. Say NBCI like that.
- 8:16The NBA is back on NBC, but you need to put a little.
- 8:19Icon that says oh the start. Of the Lakers.
- 8:21Game is now on ESPN. Plus or like tell me where I can
- 8:24watch it. And they didn't go to it
- 8:26immediately. So got to work out the kinks
- 8:27there with NBC. But it is good to be back on
- 8:29NBC. But anyway, you have that system
- 8:31match to the over. You have a short.
- 8:32Spread you have rested teams. That are healthy aside from
- 8:36Sabonis and I know Jalen. Green is out in one.
- 8:39Way I kind of like. The over more the fact.
- 8:41That you have two good. Players on both sides out, yet
- 8:43it's still is set high and taking up even higher.
- 8:46And then here's the kicker. I popped open my juice.
- 8:49Reel app and I went to the. King's Suns game.
- 8:52I went to the. The over under the total tab to
- 8:55see where the sharp mush is at. Guess what?
- 8:5715% sharp mush edge. On the over.
- 9:00So 15%. More of the winning betters who
- 9:03have like you guys out there. Listening.
- 9:05I know you guys have. Downloaded Juice Reel Synced up
- 9:07your sports books? 15% more the winning.
- 9:09Players are going over, which tells me that again, I'm with
- 9:13the sharps here as well, so. We have a game that isn't the
- 9:16most heavily backed game of the night.
- 9:18It's kind of a late night game. I know there's some.
- 9:20Injuries. It's not the sexiest matchup,
- 9:22but it stayed the same. Or gone over or or risen.
- 9:25I should say good splits. At DraftKings and Circa.
- 9:28Good system match on that half. Point move up or more 56% since.
- 9:32The start of last year. Short spread again.
- 9:35Rested and ready to go. 15% sharp mush edge.
- 9:38So I'm on the over 228 1/2. With the.
- 9:41Sacramento Kings. Phoenix Suns.
- 9:43At -110 at Fanatics again, that's the best price around
- 9:47every other book is. Either -115 or more, or up to
- 9:50229 or two. Excuse me 229 1/2.
- 9:53So let's get some points. King's Sons over 228 1/2. -110
- 9:58at Fanatics, I forgot to mention this to ESPN Hollinger, which
- 10:03again is something I always look toward.
- 10:05And all things are different because some of these guys are
- 10:07out, like Kevin Durant is no longer on the Suns, but last
- 10:10year you did have. Sacramento and Phoenix both.
- 10:12Top ten and offensive efficiency and they were both bottom. 10
- 10:16and defensive efficiency. So maybe that's why this total
- 10:18was set high. And it's ticked up.
- 10:20Even more. But let's get some points with
- 10:22the sons. And the Kings now looking toward
- 10:26the NFL slate for this upcoming weekend.
- 10:29And again the whole. Point of talking.
- 10:30About these games early in the week.
- 10:32Is trying to pick. Off good numbers.
- 10:34Getting hooks and key numbers. So that you can get some CLV and
- 10:37by the time the weekend rolls around you know you got the dog
- 10:40plus. 6 1/2 and now they're down to six or five and a half.
- 10:42That's the whole point. Of betting these games early,
- 10:45but I did. Have a full breakdown for the
- 10:47Sharp report for visen.com earlier today, but here are the
- 10:49three games that I already have in pocket.
- 10:52I've already played them. Which you can always find on the
- 10:55Juice Real app. For $4.99 a week, but the first
- 10:58one is. The Tampa Bay.
- 11:01Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints This is a four O 5 kick
- 11:04off coming up on Sunday. To set the stage here, the Bucks
- 11:085:00 and 2:00, however. Did get rolled by the Lions 24
- 11:11to 9 on Monday Night Football. You remember that couple days
- 11:13ago? Didn't cover the +6 on the road.
- 11:16Meanwhile, the Saints just one and six.
- 11:19I'm happy because I got. There under 5 1/2 win total,
- 11:21even though Spencer Rattler has been decent.
- 11:23Just came up short against the Bears 26 to 14.
- 11:26Didn't cover as a. 3 1/2 point. Road dog so.
- 11:29What have you seen across the market?
- 11:30Here Will this game open Saints or, sorry, Tampa Bay Bucks?
- 11:34Listed around a six or five and a half.
- 11:36Point Rd. Favorite.
- 11:37And the buck says or the book, the buck, the public.
- 11:40Says the Bucks should roll. Tampa Bay is.
- 11:42The far better team, yeah, they got.
- 11:44Ripped by the lions. But you know, lions are good.
- 11:46They're great at home. So. 80% of spread bets.
- 11:49Are going with the Buccaneers, however, even after opening. -6
- 11:53-. 5 1/2 and 80% of tickets in their.
- 11:55Favor you would expect Tampa Bay to be.
- 11:57Up to -6 1/2 - 7. Nope, it's gone the other.
- 12:01Way this line has fallen. Away from Tampa, toward the
- 12:05Saints, the Saints have gone. From plus 6 + 5 1/2 now down to
- 12:08plus 4 1/2. Some shops even down to. +4 So
- 12:12right off the bat, alarm bells everyone's.
- 12:14Playing Tampa but lines moving. Toward the Saints tells me we
- 12:16got sharp reverse line movement on New Orleans.
- 12:20Now DraftKings only 20% of spread bets but 64% of spread
- 12:24dollars are on the Saints. At Circa only 21% of spread bets
- 12:28but 74% of spread dollars on the Saints.
- 12:31So this is something I always look toward.
- 12:33Teams getting a line move in they got.
- 12:35Low bets, higher dollar splits at DraftKings and Circle, That's
- 12:37what's happening. Here with the Saints, so it's
- 12:39not. Just a straight up contrarian.
- 12:41Play, which it is. But it's also got that element
- 12:43of smart money with that reverse line.
- 12:44Move now. Divisional dogs love divisional
- 12:47dogs. Saints would match here.
- 12:49Why do we like divisional? Dogs because the built in
- 12:52familiarity levels the playing field benefits the team getting
- 12:54points. Divisional dogs like the Saints
- 12:57are. 318 and 276. Against the spread 54% with a 3%
- 13:02ROI since. 2019 so pretty good. Winning system match generating
- 13:06a lot of. Of systems here.
- 13:09Over the last few years or every year, basically divisional.
- 13:12Dogs in which they get at least a full point of.
- 13:14Movement in their favor, so. Again, New Orleans going from.
- 13:18Plus 6 + 5 1/2 to down. Now down to plus 4 1/2 + 4.
- 13:22If you get at least 1/2 point toward the divisional dog, they
- 13:24improved to 63 and 48. Against the spread 57% with a
- 13:2810%. ROI since 2019.
- 13:31Conference home dogs getting five points or less.
- 13:33One O 4 and 79. ATS 7950. 7 percent, 10%.
- 13:38ROI since 2018. You also have a.
- 13:40Little bit of a rest. Advantage the Saints.
- 13:43They played on Sunday, but the Bucks?
- 13:46Short Week played on Monday. Now they're playing their.
- 13:48Second straight Rd. Game if you can still get a. 4
- 13:511/2 It is out there, but a lot of books are down to 4.
- 13:53If you tell me you want to tease up the.
- 13:54Saints, I'm not going to. Argue with you. 4 1/2 up to 10.
- 13:57And a half because you do go through a couple.
- 14:00Key numbers. Which would be the. 7 and the 10
- 14:03but if you shop around and you can find the best.
- 14:05Price here, I've played the. Plus 4 1/2 of the Saints I got
- 14:09plus 4 1/2 at -1 O 5 I believe that was I want to say.
- 14:16Who was it before? It might have been fanatics.
- 14:18A lot of books are getting down to 4 looks like plus 4 1/2.
- 14:21And again, you got to get the hook.
- 14:22But the four and a half is still available -1. 15 - 1. 12 FanDuel
- 14:28and DraftKings. And oh, by the way.
- 14:30Contrarian sharp reverse line move divisional dog rest first.
- 14:33Tired. Guess what?
- 14:34I popped open the. Rhythm app and I have two.
- 14:36System matches on New Orleans. One says they should be +3. .7
- 14:41the other one. Says they should be plus 2.7.
- 14:44So that provides an edge if you're getting 4 1/2 rhythm says
- 14:47it. Should be about a 2 1/2 or. 3
- 14:491/2 point game. So first bet of the week for me
- 14:52is the Saints. Plus 4 1/2 next one for you
- 14:56Let's go to a primetime game here.
- 14:58Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers there's.
- 15:01Going to be a big one, my guy. Willie Tomlinson.
- 15:03Who's a big Packers fan? Told me he's going to the game
- 15:06and he said I hate. That you're on the the Steelers,
- 15:08I said. Willie.
- 15:09Guess what? Pittsburgh is going to lose by
- 15:11three. You're going to get.
- 15:12A win for your Packers. I'm going to cash with
- 15:14Pittsburgh in the hook. But anyway, this is a Sunday
- 15:16football. Game The Packers come in four,
- 15:19one and one. Beat the Cardinals 2723 last
- 15:22week, but. Didn't cover as a 7 point Rd.
- 15:24favorite. Meanwhile, the Steelers 4 and 2.
- 15:26Just lost to the Bengals 33 to 31 as a 5 1/2 point.
- 15:30Road favorite. We're happy about that.
- 15:32Because we had the Bengals in that Thursday night.
- 15:33Game last week, Now this game open with Green Bay listed as a
- 15:36three-point Rd. Favorite and.
- 15:39Basically, the line really hasn't moved at all.
- 15:41Open -3 Green Bay. It's still Green Bay -3 but one
- 15:44thing I noticed. And this is the importance of
- 15:46your. Odds logic live odds page is not
- 15:49just. Looking open to current but.
- 15:50Clicking the box, just tapping. On it with your your.
- 15:53Mouse and pulling up the full line history because if you pull
- 15:57up the full line history, it's going.
- 15:58To show you all the moves in between all the juice prices it
- 16:00just gives. You a better picture of how the
- 16:02line has has adjusted and what I noticed is that basically at a
- 16:06bunch of different books this line is sometimes gotten to. 3
- 16:091/2 and then immediately come back down to. 3 So that tells
- 16:13me. That anytime the hook.
- 16:14Is available you're getting a lot of smart money taking
- 16:16Pittsburgh now if you'll get. DraftKings 61.
- 16:19Percent of bets, 70% of dollars on Pittsburgh.
- 16:22Again, I don't love the 61% because it's technically public,
- 16:26but listen to this at circa 58% of bets, 82% of dollars.
- 16:31So 61% of DraftKings. Not great.
- 16:33But at least it's not 7181% and you do.
- 16:36Have low bets, higher dollars at both DraftKings and Circa.
- 16:40Then we get to our system matches.
- 16:41This is a big system match played for me Primetime dogs.
- 16:44You know we love them. They're 15 and seven against the
- 16:46spread this. Year 68.
- 16:48Percent they are. 156 and 133 ATS 54.
- 16:52Percent since 2020 if you're a dog off a loss playing an
- 16:56opponent. Off a win, 18 and 14 ATS. 56%
- 17:00this year then, you might have thought.
- 17:02Oh, don't we love. Mike Tomlin as a dog.
- 17:05Yes, we do. Mike Tomlin has a dog.
- 17:07We didn't like him as a. Favorite.
- 17:08He hasn't been great as a favorite.
- 17:10Again, just look toward that that Bengals game.
- 17:12But Tomlin's great as a dog. Steelers head coach is 64 and
- 17:1634. Against the spread 65% Twenty 7%
- 17:20ROI as a dog in his career, also off a loss.
- 17:23He's 60 and 44 ATS 58. Percent with a 13% ROI.
- 17:29Next, you do have. A big rest first.
- 17:31Tired like. Really heightened here because
- 17:32Green Bay. Is playing their second straight
- 17:34Rd. game and they played on Sunday.
- 17:37Versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Who played on Thursday?
- 17:40So Pittsburgh hat is has been off for over a week.
- 17:44What, like 10 days? Since that last Thursday,
- 17:47whereas Packers on the road regular rest there.
- 17:50So big advantage toward Pittsburgh now.
- 17:53I popped. Open the Juice Reel app.
- 17:55And I noticed that juice or sorry, I popped open Rhythm.
- 17:57Rhythm has two system matches, both on Pittsburgh.
- 18:00One. Says the Steelers should be +2
- 18:02point. Three, the other one says.
- 18:04Steelers should be plus 1.4 so again off the current.
- 18:08Price, you're getting a good edge there now.
- 18:11You got to get the hook here. I know, I kind.
- 18:13Of laid out the case. That hey, basically. +3 is is
- 18:18is. The key number, but you got to
- 18:19get. The 3 1/2 so I did get the. 3
- 18:221/2 it is available. At a couple shops right now.
- 18:25I got it earlier at. Fanatics plus 3 1/2 at -120 ESPN
- 18:30bet also has plus 3 1/2 - 130. Now that's kind of pricey.
- 18:34But again, the importance of getting the hook lose by three.
- 18:37So you can still get it. At Fanatics.
- 18:39In the ESPN bet and again as soon as I put these plays in the
- 18:42app. They go right to the.
- 18:43Juice Reel page so you can definitely play those as soon as
- 18:47you get them, but. I took the hook there plus 3
- 18:491/2. -120 at Fanatics. Last play that caught my eye.
- 18:54This is a gross one. But hey.
- 18:57It looks pretty sharp. Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers
- 19:001:00 Game here coming up on Sunday.
- 19:03The bills come in four and two. Just lost to the Falcons. 24 to
- 19:0614 as a. 3 1/2. Point Rd.
- 19:08Favorite, remember? Falcons.
- 19:09We have the points there, which is nice.
- 19:11Meanwhile, the Panthers four and three just beat The Jets 13.
- 19:14To six, winning outright as a 1 1/2 point Rd. dog.
- 19:17So what have you? Seen across the market here.
- 19:19Will this game open? Buffalo listed around a 7 1/2.
- 19:22Point Rd. Favorite.
- 19:23And the public says the bills. Got to bounce back.
- 19:26They've lost two straight Bills are easily going to win by 8 or
- 19:29more double digits so. Right now you're getting 79% of
- 19:33spread bets. Laying the points with the
- 19:35Bills. However, even though you get
- 19:37this huge, huge public wave of betting on the.
- 19:40Bills. Bills are not up to. -8 - 9.
- 19:43They've stayed right where they're at it -7 1/2 And they're
- 19:46also. Getting juiced up on the.
- 19:48Panther side plus 7 1/2 minus. 115 -, 120 some books even
- 19:53dipping down to. 7. So if everyone.
- 19:55'S playing Buffalo again, this is kind of similar to the Tampa.
- 19:58New Orleans game, but if. Everyone's playing Buffalo.
- 20:01Why is this line staying right where it's at?
- 20:02Why hasn't gone up? Why hasn't it gone up?
- 20:05And why is it juiced up toward the Carolina?
- 20:07Side tells me the Panthers. Have some good sharp liability.
- 20:10In their favor, Panthers. Are one of the best or top bet
- 20:14against the public. Plays of the week, they're only
- 20:16getting 21. Percent of spread bets at
- 20:18DraftKings. At Circa, they're only getting.
- 20:2019. Percent of spread bets, but 49%
- 20:23of spread dollars. So good low.
- 20:25Bets higher dollar split on Carolina at Circa.
- 20:27Those big dogs, those Bernese mountain dogs.
- 20:30Those German shepherds getting 6 1/2 points or more?
- 20:33They're. 17 and 13. Against the spread this year,
- 20:3557%. They're 150 and 128 TS. 56% with
- 20:40a 6% ROI since. 2022 Now it looks like it's going to be Andy
- 20:44Dalton. Starting in place of Bryce
- 20:46Young, But I did. Just see a tweet where?
- 20:49Bryce Young went on the practice.
- 20:50Field today without a boot. I think he injured his ankle, so
- 20:53maybe Young will play. I don't.
- 20:54Know, but as of right now it's probably.
- 20:56Expected to be Andy Dalton, but Andy Dalton in his career. 46
- 21:00and 39 against the spread as a dog. 54 percent, 6% ROI.
- 21:05Josh Allen, by the way. Is only 17 and 19.
- 21:08Against the spread as a favorite of seven or more.
- 21:11That's only a 47%. Win rate.
- 21:12So Josh Allen. Typically wins these games, but
- 21:15doesn't usually cover popped Open the rhythm app.
- 21:18And I had Panthers plus. 6.8 Where we.
- 21:21Can get a 7 1/2. So again, shop around.
- 21:24I know it's a gross one. It looks like a very sharp line
- 21:27freeze and juiced up liability toward the Panthers and you
- 21:31can't get Carolina plus 7 1/2 at. -115.
- 21:35I got that at Fanatics. You can also.
- 21:38Get that at Bet MGM. But FanDuel is plus.
- 21:40Seven F -, 120. As well as ESPN bet so. +7 F -1.
- 21:4515 looks. To be your best price and
- 21:47draftking is actually down to seven so.
- 21:50Give me the Panthers here. Plus 7 1/2.
- 21:52So we got the Steelers. Plus 3 1/2 Panthers plus 7 1/2
- 21:56Saints plus 4 1/2 along with our over.
- 21:59In the King Sons game for tonight.
- 22:02So that about does it for episode 379 of the All systems
- 22:06Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 22:08This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
- 22:11start first by. Saying thank you, thank you for
- 22:13tuning in, thank you for listening.
- 22:15Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
- 22:17busy lives, to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat
- 22:20some sharp, data-driven breakdowns of me.
- 22:22If you wouldn't mind, could you please give this podcast?
- 22:25A five star review. On Spotify or iTunes it.
- 22:28Would really help us to. Continue the momentum and
- 22:31continue. To grow the pod if you want.
- 22:32To click the follow button or leave a nice.
- 22:34Comment or recommend the pod to a friend.
- 22:36Or retweet the. Pod when I tweeted out that
- 22:39would also be very much appreciated.
- 22:41Next. Do you have or if you want?
- 22:44To learn more about sports betting, I should say.
- 22:46Have you bought my new book yet? Well, I would love.
- 22:48For you if you want to learn more about data-driven betting
- 22:50or have a. Friend who could use some
- 22:51data-driven tips. Or you just want to?
- 22:53Support the team and. Let me know you appreciate the
- 22:55pod. Could you please go to?
- 22:57Amazon.com and Type. In the NFL sharp betting
- 23:00playbook or my first book the. Everything guide to sports
- 23:03betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
- 23:05buddy and you can. Bring it to the sports book.
- 23:07I'll sign it for you. I'll buy you a.
- 23:08Beer. Or ginger ale and.
- 23:10We'll sweat some games together. Next.
- 23:12Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
- 23:14My two favorite sports. Betting apps rhythm I love.
- 23:17Doing my market research. And then seeing what Rhythm
- 23:19says, I love it when my research.
- 23:21Says hey, take this team. Then rhythm backs me up.
- 23:24Or maybe I like this game. Then rhythm says 0.
- 23:26Maybe you should think about that again.
- 23:27We actually have value on the other side.
- 23:30But rhythm just lets you act like a pro better because it
- 23:33gives you these. Kind of power rating, set lines,
- 23:37AI driven models. Then you can add that to your
- 23:39handicapping routine so you can. Use promo code start 25 for 25%
- 23:44off and reminder it's a Wednesday so.
- 23:46That means. Tomorrow, 6:00 PM Eastern Time,
- 23:48we will do our rhythm live stream called The Rhythm
- 23:51Rundown. So.
- 23:51Hope to see you guys. There at 6:00 tomorrow night,
- 23:54streamed live on Twitter. Also, you got to download Juice
- 23:57Reel. Juice Reel has so many great
- 23:59different features, but whatever you like about Juice Reel is you
- 24:02can get all my. Official best bet picks.
- 24:04Only on the Juice Reel app now you can get them by.
- 24:06Listening to the podcast and listen to the pod, you can write
- 24:09them down or whatever you want, but if you want to.
- 24:11Support the team. If the pod has.
- 24:13Helped you to succeed. Please think about tipping your
- 24:16podcast. Host, I would love it if you
- 24:18guys wanted to sign up to. Get the all systems go.
- 24:20Official best bet picks on Juice Reel It only cost $4.99 a week,
- 24:26so it's less than a dollar a day for all these insights and I
- 24:29would like to think that that's a pretty good deal.
- 24:32But in addition, if you. Also want to download?
- 24:36Juice Reel you're. Going to get the Robo Jackson
- 24:37best bet picks. The sharp mush indicators the.
- 24:40Arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures.
- 24:42All available when you download Juice reel.
- 24:44So download rhythm, download juice reel.
- 24:47And make sure you give a. Five star review.
- 24:49In the App Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
- 24:52If you don't, you need one. Because you got to be able to
- 24:55track the market. You got to know what did the
- 24:57game. Open at?
- 24:58Where is it now? Pull up the complete line
- 25:00history. Identify where the juice is
- 25:02leaning. Find out where you can pick off
- 25:04a key number. Or a hook by getting the best
- 25:06price at the book. Offering you.
- 25:08The best number I identify. Steam when odds get lit up in
- 25:12red as soon as they change. That's all available to you when
- 25:15you. Give a shot to odds logic.
- 25:17So Odds logic is the best live odds page around.
- 25:20I use it every day it. Helps me when it's going to help
- 25:22you win. So if you'd like a 7 day free
- 25:24trial and 50% off your. First month of service go to
- 25:27oddslogic.com/josh. 123 In addition, have you given a shot
- 25:36to Novig? Novig is a sports betting.
- 25:39Exchange. It is not a sports book, but
- 25:41it's kind of like a sports book because you just deposit.
- 25:43Money. It's a It's legal as long as
- 25:45it's legal in your state, and you can, again, not get limited
- 25:49when you win, but the whole point of Novig is that you're
- 25:51getting better. Prices, you're getting better
- 25:52numbers because you're not going up.
- 25:54Against a sports book Who is making you?
- 25:57Pay Juice at minus. 110 -, 115 -, 120.
- 26:01So for example. I'm looking at all these games
- 26:03here tonight in the NBA Celtics. -4 1/2 - 1 O 4 Sixers plus 4 1/2
- 26:09+ 1 O1. You're always getting better
- 26:11juice prices. By by going with Novig.
- 26:14Because, again, you're not. Competing against the book
- 26:16you're competing. Against other sports bettors.
- 26:20So with that being said. If you want to download Novig,
- 26:23all you got to do is use promo code.
- 26:25Josh. 123 in the promo field when you.
- 26:29Deposit your account. That means you'll get 100%
- 26:31deposit match. Up to 25 bucks.
- 26:34So that. About does it for episode. 3. 79
- 26:36of the all. Systems go sports betting
- 26:38podcast Power by rhythm. As always guys, two final
- 26:41thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
- 26:43in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode.
- 26:45Island, the Brook of New Hampshire.
- 26:46Foxwoods or Mohegan. Sundown in Connecticut, at the
- 26:49Encore in Boston. Plainridge.
- 26:50Park casino MGM Springfield. Or the Nash.
- 26:53And my neck of the. Woods on the border?
- 26:55Between New Hampshire and Massachusetts.
- 26:57We're out in the desert. Where the true grinders get
- 26:59down. Where Billy?
- 27:00Walters sends his number runners where the lowest.
- 27:02Juice possible. Is found at the South point or
- 27:04sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
- 27:06Jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you.
- 27:07Catch a big ticket at Circa? You're.
- 27:09Going to walk up to me and you're going to show me just a
- 27:13beautiful, beautiful Warriors. Lakers over 220. 5 1/2 because.
- 27:18You beat the closing line and we got the win.
- 27:21You know, sometimes when you beat the.
- 27:22Closing line. It's like, man, I did my part.
- 27:25It's almost like too good to be true and you're like, oh, it's
- 27:27definitely going to lose now because I did my part.
- 27:29But Nope, we're able to get that winner there.
- 27:31So show me that. Warriors Lakers over first one.
- 27:34'S on me, next one's on you. We'll post about the book,
- 27:36Sweatshop, and train plays. All night long.
- 27:39So as always guys. Coming off A1 and O or an O and
- 27:42one. A great night, a terrible night,
- 27:44a good night, a bad night again, whether we're hot or cold.
- 27:48We never want to get too. Arrogant or cocky or think?
- 27:50Betting is easy when we're winning because.
- 27:52It's hard, but. Also, when you're losing, don't.
- 27:54Get down. Don't get down in the dumps and
- 27:56be depressed. I can't, you know, I feel that
- 27:59way too, and I'm losing. But you try not to beat yourself
- 28:01up about it. Because it's a very difficult.
- 28:03Market to beat? So if we can stay true to the
- 28:05model and just bet games from a data-driven.
- 28:07Perspective, not our personal bias and bet games based on line
- 28:11movement splits all the things we look at.
- 28:14If we can do that, if we can find.
- 28:15Games that fit the model in terms of against the public with
- 28:18the house with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that.
- 28:21COV, if we can do that, we're going to be successful.
- 28:24Sports bettors. So have a fantastic Wednesday.
- 28:27Night, everybody. Let's get a lot of.
- 28:29Points here in the King Sons game and.
- 28:30I'll be right back at it tomorrow for episode. 380 of the
- 28:34all. Systems go sports betting
- 28:35podcast powered by rhythm. Good luck.
- 28:38Everybody and have a great Wednesday night.