Latest / Merryn Talks Money / UK IPOs Have Dried Up, US Tech Booms, and Japan’s Surprise Rally

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UK IPOs Have Dried Up, US Tech Booms, and Japan’s Surprise Rally · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Marrin
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Drugs Money Market Wrap, when we talk about the biggest
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: moves in the markets this week and what is driving them.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I'm Maren Thumsip, Web Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth, and.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: I'm Joined Stapek, senior reporter and author of the multi
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: award winning money to Store with newslast.
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: This is painful.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Can I just ask all of you award giving institutions
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: just stop stop validating this man.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: It's true. My head's beardly fit the screen as it is, or.
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: At the very least, at the very least give me
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: the awards. Let me have some.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Your shelf is much bigger than me.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: And still well they're all old.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: They're old.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: As you know. We got that great one last year,
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: didn't we Best Broadcaster.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that was a good one, yeah, for our.
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: Award winning podcast. Right.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Anyway, another of that, So we did another fantastic part
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: earlier in the week, because you know, we are an
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: award winning podcast, right, and that was our chat with
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Roger Lee about the hideous, hideous fiscal position that the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: UK is in and how it might just might non
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: zero risk bring down the government, caused a constitutional crisis, etcetera.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: There was a lot of comments on that, one half
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: of them saying, you know, don't be ridiculous, what's wrong
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: with you? Five me ahead of race with this taken
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: our sweat, and other ones saying, wow, that was really,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: really good, one of the best inflations I've ever heard.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Brilliant podcast. I'm with those guys. By the way, is
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: there anything you listen to it? Right?
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: John?
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I thought it was I thought it was great.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I thought it was very clear, and obviously I get
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: that obviously everyone's got their own political views and the
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: cit on the mint of partisanship will come wenty whether
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: or not you think it was good or not. But
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think it was. You know, the Yuki's finances
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: are in trouble, they aut comparability Financis, and France has
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: had a constitutional crisis, so you know, I certainly don't
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: think it's It's not a crazy idea to think that
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: it may cause the fall of the government.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: You know, although interesting, one of the one of the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: one of the comments questions that came with it was
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: so okay, so the poundle devalue, Does that mean some
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: of your cash should be put in euros.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: Well, do you know that's not really the answer.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, it may be, And we do have a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: podcast coming up, by the way, with Dominic Frisbee just
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: on gold, and one of the things we point out
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: there is totally possible for all guarancies to devalue at
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: the same time against gold. Right, So the European economies
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: aren't necessarily in a significantly better position than the UK economy.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: So it's not really a matter of well, things are
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: cramp in the UK, so I'll go put my money
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: in in that currency that represents you, I don't know, France. Yeah,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: so watch out for that at a at a thinking
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: that that's an obvious thing to do.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Honestly, if I was part of it, if I was
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: really what really wanted with contents and I wanted the
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: dollar would still be the one that I went to.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe just see.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a reason right that that gold is
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: up forty seven percent this year and silver is up
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent this year, seventeen percent in September alone.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: There's a reason for that, and it's not because the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Euro is a better currency.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: Than the pound.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: We might come back to that there's another question from
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: from David. Thank you David. In your Labor Tax Talk podcast.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: You say to that any attack on DC pensions wouldn't work.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: It has to also affect dB pensions to be fair,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: and he doesn't really agree. He thinks that that that's
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: that's not a reason for it not to happen. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: guess he thinks that everything is unfair, So why wouldn't
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: this be.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: I think David's point the quick look at that was
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: you were saying, well, hookom the the HT thing which
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: only affects DC pensions rather than dB ones. And I
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: think the point that as well, because it doesn't affect
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: dB pensions, it wasn't a big deal.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So being here, well, I suppose that they keep saying
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: there is that you would They say that why would
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: inheritance tax affected dB bension because the dB bension dies
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: with you? So who gets about inheritance tax? But of
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: course it doesn't always does it, because it goes to
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: the spouse or a partner, et cetera. And that doesn't
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: necessarily have to be inside of marriage. So I guess
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: there's something there, but it's not quite the same.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: There's something there in that you always taking a benefit
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: away from DC. The Okay, there wasn't in TB in
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: the first place, but DB's got other benefits that DC
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: don't get. I get, I get the aditation, but I
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: also see why politically speaking, it was a very easy move.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: We redize the other.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: Day, agreed, agreed.
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  Speaker 1: There was one other email that that we enjoyed from
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: someone in Turkey about adding some gold and some silver
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: to her portfolio. And of course what what we were
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: talking about last week was the Turkish portfolio, where you
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: have effectively in a half gold and half equities to
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: protect yourself against inflation, et cetera. And she says, salaries
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: in Turkey being eating way by inflation. Joined the club,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: and as a teacher, I feel this very strongly in
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: my everyday life. That's why I started to change the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: way I am vesto a Turkish portfolio from Turkey fun.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: I guess that's that's really interesting.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, look, one thing you can say for terrible
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: economic mismanagement is that it makes the average person in
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: the street a much more sophisticated. VESTA.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: On the subject of terrible economic mismanagement, the UK stock market,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: which of course we are great fans of in terms
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: of the wonderful company is trading on a stock market
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  Speaker 1: at kind of rubbish prices, and you know, we feel
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  Speaker 1: and we still feel that there are value there, but
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  Speaker 1: the de equitization of the market is really starting to
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  Speaker 1: get very very serious. And almost no IPOs in the
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  Speaker 1: UK this year, and you pointed out to me earlier
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: and they've been actually been quite a lot of talk
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: about it that we are now on the on the
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: list of markets that have ipo done IPOs over so
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  Speaker 1: far this year. What do we what did you say,
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  Speaker 1: number twenty four at number twenty three of pretty much
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  Speaker 1: out of pretty much everybody you can think of.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think in terms of the big markets, we're
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: still ahead of Italy, which is like number thirty. But
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: when the fact I'm calling Italy a big market in
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: this context shows you just how low we are. We're
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: behind o mine, which is a frontier market. It's not
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: it's really really kind of ugly, and you can, you know,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: you can patch it by saying that, well, yeah, but
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: there's meant to be some IPOs next year. And I'm
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: sure if you look down the list you could see
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: that there were reasons why the IPOs were in the
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: places they were in. But it's pretty ugly stuff and
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: there is the result knowing it. Yeah yeah, I mean
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  Speaker 2: a lot of kind of Twitter follower people were sort
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: of saying, oh, my goodness, does this mean the city
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: is doomed? And you're kind of like, well, okay, this
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: isn't actually the city's core business, but that is part
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: of the problem.
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's all part of a network, isn't it. I mean,
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: it's all.
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  Speaker 1: Part of the infrastructure around find out law et cetera.
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  Speaker 1: In London, of the stock market is at the core
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: of that, and its shrinkage does matter. It matters for
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: all sorts of reasons. But and it's becoming urgent. And
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: you know, policymakers have been told about this over and
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: over and over and over again.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know how many different.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Lunches and dinners and talks and bla that you and
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I have been to over the last decades talking about
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: the miseries of the UK storm market and how it
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: can be fixed, and absolutely nothing ever happens. Get a
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: little fiddling around on the supply side with regulation, et cetera,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: but nothing real like this.
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  Speaker 3: This stuff that came out.
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  Speaker 1: I think it was just this morning talk about cutting
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  Speaker 1: stamp duty for new IPOs.
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  Speaker 3: This is nothing, nothing, This is nothing.
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  Speaker 1: You should cut stamp duty across the board, but cutting
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: stamp duty for for IPOs this is nothing. Most countries
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  Speaker 1: don't even have stamp duty. This is not getting us ahead,
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  Speaker 1: This is just getting us very slightly less behind. It's
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  Speaker 1: a nothing, It's nothing.
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  Speaker 4: Incredibly frustrating, is a real waste. I mean, I don't know,
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: a lot of people have talked about the stock exchine
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: should be spun outy LC group, and I mean I
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: think that's I don't think that's the core problem, but
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: I do think that if it was just one person's
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: job to make the stock market better, that would actually
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: help focus things a bit. So I mean, I'm not
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's necessarily the solution, but I'm certainly
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: not against it.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, let's move on to more jolly stuff. You
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: know that we we could talk a bit more about gold,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: but that is not jolly obviously, it's the it's the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: anti investment. You don't want gold to go up. The
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: fact that gold is going up might be marvelous for
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: your portfolio if you've been listening to us for years,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: but overall, it's not a good thing. You want that
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: to go back down again. So let's all hope for that. However,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: if you're on American tech socks or America, you're pretty happy.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Too, right, Yeah. Yeah, they just keep fair, They just
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: keep going up, They just keep going up. And even
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: although of those various signs are bubbly in this and
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: all of this, that that's just just shorting those sis.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: And also the US government entirely shutting down. Obviously that's
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: a good thing. Nobody can I think we should try
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: it here.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: It's interesting seeing I mean, one of our colleagues is
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: written about this, saying that, you know, we were worried,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: constantly worried, all of us about the market narrowing and
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: narrowing and narrowing in the US Magnificent a magnificent seven,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Magnificent five, the Magnificent four. But now it is totally
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: widening out again, and you can begin to talk about
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: about a new group. Who is Which of our colleagues
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: wrote about this, I can't remember, but they said, maybe
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: we can talk about the Golden dozen.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Now. I don't know what to make any of this.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: If I'm moreness, it's on the one hand. You've got
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: all these stories about Nevedia kind of buying chips. No, no, no,
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: what they do, yeah, no, a little company, they invest
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: in a little company that the chips from them, and
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: then they rent the chips back from them, and then
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: they're all investing in each other's open AI is investing
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: and buying stuff from this one, and then that one's
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: buy stuff in the video, and that one's stuff from Microsoft.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: So there is a sort of circularity to everything. And
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: also there's a lot of private money involved, so it's
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: become it's somewhat more opaque how this all works, and
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: it does feel kind of dot com me from that
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: point of view. At the same time, there's not the
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: same sheer nuttiness so there was a dot com like,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: all of these companies do make money, even if we're
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: not entirely sure how they're spending it or what the
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: accounts are going to look like. Once everybody's rented everything
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: from everyone else. So I couldn't even it feels bubbly,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: but I couldn't begin to say whether it's you know,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety six or nineteen ninety nine or not,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: that that's not the case at all. I don't know.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: All right, I'm want.
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: To follow that under proceed with caution.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: But there's something there's something else that I want to
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: point out, some new and semi exciting bit of information.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: And this comes from a note from aj Bell where
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: they point out that it's been a really good year
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: for the UK, right and I'm leaving the US and
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: go back to the UK. It's been a great year
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: for the UK shares so far, but it's been even
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: better for a particular kind of UK funds.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Do you want to guess have active fund manage is
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: actually nice to do something?
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: Yes? Yes they have.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: In the battle of the manager versus the machine, humans
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: have been punching above their weight with UK funds as well.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But so far this year in both the UK All
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Companies and UK equity income strategies, the top ten performers
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: were dominated by actively managed funds.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: That'd be cool. See eventually every dog has its day.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Oh that wasn't quite how I was going to frame it.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Okay, So what's the tall point? What's the tall one?
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Give us well svs Zoos Dynamic Opportunities, followed by Artemis
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: Smart GARP UK Equity garper growth A reasonare Press ninety
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: one UK Personal Situations Dimensional UK Value Artemis UK Select
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Brompton UK recovery.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: Or of recovery going on here.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Then you get a couple of ETFs, and then you
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: get red Wheel UK Climate Engagement. It's kind of interesting
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: in most of the climate related funds on renewal and
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: your related funds of having a pretty nasty time. And
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: then you get the Investigo UK Enhanced Index, about which
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I know anything, but you get the general sense from
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: the phrase enhanced index.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: There's a bit of a vowel you've seen near the top.
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: There value recovery, except.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: I would take a point there maybe a kind of fine.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, So that is interesting.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: So on one on one side of the Atlantic, you're
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: getting a lot of textuff coming through huge performance there,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and on the other side we are back to active value,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: so very different markets, which is in itself kind of interesting.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess this is good as way hope,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: because at the end of the most of the people
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: listening to this are, even if they're quite active, are
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: still going to have a fair chunk in the US.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: So if the US is still going up, even if
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: you're underway to US is going up, values going up.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Gold's going up. The actual environ may may feel a
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: bit scary, but it's been brilliant for basically anyone who
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: invests in almost anything that isn't guilt or a treasury.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: It's been a very very good year so far. I
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: think it's the other reason no palanoid about it like ending.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: But that's the point, you're such a doom and gloomer.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: We must remind everybody by the way that the other
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: market that has done extremely well that we have been
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: going on and on and on about for forever is
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of course Japan. And last month the Topics hit a
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: new aldhim high. And I know the Nike did that
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: a while back, about a year ago, but the Topics
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: is for your professional investors put more more faith in
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: the Topics than in than in the Nicke because it's
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: a better index basically.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: So that hitting in.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: New high last month, that's kind of exciting and suggests
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: that Japan maybe it really is back.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: That is exciting. And we saw we've got a colleague,
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: kid GIROI two rates a lot about Japan, and he
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: was making the point that young people in Japan are
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: que and OPTI put us Evans in the US kind
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: of isers, which is a big change, as well as
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: put the sevens and equities in the issers. And that's
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: something we used to talk about, hoping that domestic savers
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: would come back to the Japanese stock market, and that
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: sort of culture change fainly seems to be happening, and
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: it seems to be. Inflation can be quite helpful and
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: taken behavioral changes.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Getting people out of cash, yeah, not so much here, though,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: not so much here.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: But we're not We're not going to continue the UK misery. First,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: it's not we're not doing this.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I suppose interest you here has kind of
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: have gone into they kind of went into giving you
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: a real return again for quite a while. So you
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: see why people may have loaded up on cash.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, but now what we want them to do
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: is get rid of that cash and put their money
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: into the UK market and make it go up. And
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: if it goes up, and it keeps going up, then
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: companies will come here and I p O and everything
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: will be fine.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Right, Yes, and that's where I'm going to end exit.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: Everything is going to be fine. Thanks for listening. This
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: week's Marin Talks Money Debrief.
• 15:49
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