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Assad in Syria, it's a wrap · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 2: Jack, Mike N. Tucker with you, kicking off another week
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  Speaker 2: here on the Financial Exchange, and our top story today
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  Speaker 2: is going to be the events that unfolded in Syria
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  Speaker 2: over the weekend, as the Syrian government led by bachelor
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  Speaker 2: Ala Sad has effectively been toppled by rebel forces in
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  Speaker 2: a span of two weeks. Now pretty pretty quick in
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  Speaker 2: terms of the uh, the the you know, actual events
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  Speaker 2: that led to this. And we touched on this a
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  Speaker 2: little bit last week. It doesn't seem like something that
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  Speaker 2: a lot of people have been talking about. I know,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: it's not as sexy as talking about like the Department
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: of Government efficiency or uh, you know, talking about, hey,
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  Speaker 2: what did we see from the Joltz report last week,
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  Speaker 2: But ultimately something that I think is very important for
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  Speaker 2: a number of different reasons. And I want to get
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  Speaker 2: into quite a few of these because there's there's some
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  Speaker 2: meat on this one here, and this has, you know,
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  Speaker 2: the potential to be a watershed moment as far as
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  Speaker 2: what it means in global geopolitics. So let's talk about
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  Speaker 2: the state of play before the last two weeks. Back
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  Speaker 2: in twenty eleven, as part of the Arab Spring movement,
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  Speaker 2: you had a whole bunch of uprisings throughout the Middle East,
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  Speaker 2: one of which was in Syria. The Syrian government, led
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: by Ala Sad and backed predominantly by Russia and Iran,
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  Speaker 2: cracked down on the protests with pretty you know, violent
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  Speaker 2: tactics and basically some of the worst human rights violations
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  Speaker 2: that we've seen in modern history. Some of the stuff
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  Speaker 2: that's coming out of the prisons that have been liberated
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  Speaker 2: in the last forty eight hours is about as bad
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  Speaker 2: as you'll see. And the state of play in Syria
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  Speaker 2: basically devolved into a thirteen year civil war, the vast
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  Speaker 2: majority of which you know, happened prior to twenty eighteen
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  Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, and then the last three to four years
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  Speaker 2: have kind of just been a steady state where you've
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  Speaker 2: had these rebel groups that have been present predominantly in
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  Speaker 2: the northern and eastern parts of the country, and by
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  Speaker 2: and large, there hasn't been a whole lot going on,
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  Speaker 2: aside from some occasional skirmishes, some occasional air strikes and
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  Speaker 2: things like that, but not not too much that has
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  Speaker 2: been of note, as kind of jaded as that is
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  Speaker 2: to say.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think you know again, how much of
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  Speaker 3: this do we pay attention to on a day to
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: day basis here in the United States?
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  Speaker 2: Very little?
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  Speaker 3: But probably what you've been seeing on the ground is
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  Speaker 3: less influence from arond in Russia, especially recently given their
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: attention being drawn elsewhere, largely Ukraine and other borders with Israel.
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  Speaker 2: So if you try to put together a diagram of
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  Speaker 2: all the different groups in Syria and who supports them
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  Speaker 2: and who they're supporting and so on and so forth,
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  Speaker 2: it's it's freaking messy because there are no clear lines
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  Speaker 2: because the area has just been ravaged by war for
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  Speaker 2: the last decade and a half, and so there are
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  Speaker 2: no clear lines as far as hey, these are the
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  Speaker 2: good guys and these are the bad guys, and here's
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  Speaker 2: what you should want. So if if excuse me, if
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: you're looking for us to tell you, hey, like this
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  Speaker 2: is good or bad and here's who you should like,
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  Speaker 2: you can take that and shove it.
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  Speaker 1: Like.
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  Speaker 2: There's just no way to do that, because the area
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  Speaker 2: has been quite honestly a wasteland for the last thirteen years,
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  Speaker 2: and that's the main reason why you've had tens of
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  Speaker 2: millions of people fleeing Syria into Europe. You can actually
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  Speaker 2: look today, like you go through and look at the
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  Speaker 2: social media reporting on what's going on right now. There
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  Speaker 2: are lines of people waiting to get back into Syria
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  Speaker 2: right now, right for the first time in a decade.
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  Speaker 2: So you look at this, and who is ostensibly in
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  Speaker 2: charge of the new regime that is in Syria, which in.
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  Speaker 3: Charge at this stage, let's county out that nine ways
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  Speaker 3: from Sunday, Like, yeah, seemingly in charge, but who knows
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  Speaker 3: what that will actually mean three weeks from now?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, look again, ostensibly just like who has you know,
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  Speaker 2: the keys to the kingdom at the moment? And it
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  Speaker 2: is a group by the name of Hayat to Rear
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: al Sham And they're known by the acronym HTS, just
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: because that's what that shortens to. And there are elements
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  Speaker 2: of HTS that are formed from the remnants of al
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  Speaker 2: Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula as well as from Isis.
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  Speaker 2: So like, there are some bad dudes inside this group.
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  Speaker 2: To be clear, the leader, Abdu Mohammad al Jawani, is
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  Speaker 2: someone who has gone through a what's the right way
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  Speaker 2: to phrase this a extreme an extreme makeover over the
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  Speaker 2: last year or two, similar quite honestly to what you've
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  Speaker 2: seen from the Taliban in a similar time period, trying
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  Speaker 2: to put on a more polished front, be a little
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  Speaker 2: bit more westernized in terms of communication methods and presentation,
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  Speaker 2: and also quite honestly, making some overtures to persecuted minorities
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  Speaker 2: throughout the Syrian region as well, whether they be Christians,
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  Speaker 2: whether they be Kurds, Drus like you go through the list,
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  Speaker 2: and by and large it seems like there's been some
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  Speaker 2: pretty strong communication and negotiation going through behind the scenes
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  Speaker 2: on this, which on its surf suggests the possibility that
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  Speaker 2: HTS is less is Lomist than it used to be.
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  Speaker 2: It doesn't prove that, and ultimately how they end up governing,
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  Speaker 2: if they're able to govern, is going to be what
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  Speaker 2: ends up proving this out one way or another. But
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  Speaker 2: to this point, like just as an example, HTS, as
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  Speaker 2: they went through Aleppa, one of the other major cities
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  Speaker 2: in Syria, they put a Christian priest in charge of
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  Speaker 2: the city, which is something that if you are a
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  Speaker 2: true believer is Lomist, you just don't do. Even as
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  Speaker 2: a nice thing. It's just kind of fundamentally not there.
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  Speaker 2: So it's again hard to tell what's real and what
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  Speaker 2: isn't about this extreme makeover that HTS has gone through
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  Speaker 2: in the last year or two. I think that it
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  Speaker 2: really is going to have to the proof's going to
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  Speaker 2: be in the putting in terms of how they attempt
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  Speaker 2: to govern. But as someone who again for the last
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  Speaker 2: forty hours, really for the last like week or so,
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  Speaker 2: I've been following this pretty closely, I have a couple
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  Speaker 2: buddies who are pretty plugged into it just to you know,
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  Speaker 2: again kind of know there's stuff about what's going on here,
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  Speaker 2: and their view on it is basically, hey, HTS has
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  Speaker 2: been doing all the necessary legwork to try to build
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  Speaker 2: up a successful state in the event that they emerge
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  Speaker 2: as you know, the leader of it, whether or not
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  Speaker 2: it's for real or not, it's gonna take some time
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  Speaker 2: to figure out what they actually are today and who
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  Speaker 2: they claim and you know who they claim to be,
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  Speaker 2: just because you don't have to look back that far
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  Speaker 2: to be like, yeah, these were the people that were
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  Speaker 2: going through and basically if you weren't a strict sallapist,
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  Speaker 2: they were saying, yeah, off with your head quite literally,
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  Speaker 2: and so it's it's hard to tell exactly where this
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  Speaker 2: is going to go. But again it's I don't think
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  Speaker 2: you can really look at anyone who has lived through
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  Speaker 2: a thirteen year civil war and say that they're either
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  Speaker 2: all good or all bad simply but because everyone living
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  Speaker 2: through that would do good things, bad things, horrible things,
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  Speaker 2: and everything in between, just because you're trying to survive.
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  Speaker 2: So what the times called. Yeah, I'm not trying to
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  Speaker 2: say these are good people or bad people. I'm just
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  Speaker 2: trying to say, we don't know how this is actually
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  Speaker 2: going to play out now that they have access to
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  Speaker 2: the levers of power.
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  Speaker 3: So real quickly. Do you sense that this means much
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  Speaker 3: of anything for Middle East energy? For I mean, it's
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  Speaker 3: generating much in terms of oil production over the last
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  Speaker 3: few years. It does speak to Russia's either lack of
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  Speaker 3: interest or waning influence in the area. Any big takeaways
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  Speaker 3: if you are sitting here in the United States pretty
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  Speaker 3: removed from this.
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  Speaker 2: The two big ones in my mind, Number one, Russian
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  Speaker 2: and Iran's influence is diminished significantly. I mean, Iran basically
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  Speaker 2: over the last three decades built a wall of proxies
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  Speaker 2: that could do it's fighting for it, one of which
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  Speaker 2: was the Alisad government in Syria has a blood being,
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  Speaker 2: another Hamasa being another the only one that's kind of left.
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  Speaker 2: There's this situation going on in Yemen that still is
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  Speaker 2: you know, civil war ish and pretty horrible, but by
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  Speaker 2: and large, like Iran's proxies, they are all reduced in
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  Speaker 2: terms of their ability to act as actual fighting forces. Now, yeah,
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  Speaker 2: it's just not They're just not there. So I think
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  Speaker 2: there is the very real possibility that you see further
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  Speaker 2: action from Israel against Iran in the near future, and
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  Speaker 2: how that reshapes the potential Middle East as far as
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  Speaker 2: energy production and the geopolitics there, I think is pretty significant.
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  Speaker 2: The other takeaway is specifically with regards to Russia. Russian
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  Speaker 2: and Vladimir Putin in particular has a you know, premis
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  Speaker 2: in a thought that he puts out there that look,
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  Speaker 2: Russia does not abandon its allies. In the last week.
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  Speaker 2: That's exactly what Russia did in Syria simply because the
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: situation wasn't tenable. They were pulling up whether you're talking planes, boats,
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  Speaker 2: you know, whatever, it is away from the Syrian conflict
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  Speaker 2: in kind of recognition that hey, this is not going
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  Speaker 2: to go the way that we needed to go, and
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  Speaker 2: we either can't or won't commit the resources to it
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: in order to further what we had started, you know,
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  Speaker 2: ten to fifteen years ago. I think that's pretty notable
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  Speaker 2: as well, given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine right now.
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  Speaker 2: So ultimately, yeah, in terms of the actual economic impact
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  Speaker 2: of this on the world stage, in and of itself,
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  Speaker 2: it's not huge. Syria is not a major economy, largely
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  Speaker 2: because it's been decimated by the last fifteen years of
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  Speaker 2: civil war.
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  Speaker 3: You've got estimates of seventy to eighty percent of the
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  Speaker 3: population living in poverty.
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  Speaker 2: This is not a and that's the ones who stayed, right,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: that's not even counting all the ones who exited just
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: because they wanted nothing to do with the situation. But
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  Speaker 2: the other place that I think is interesting to watch
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: on this is Turkey's influence and how it grows. Why
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: don't we take a quick break I want to touch
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: on that, and then what it means specifically for the
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: US when we come back.
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  Speaker 2: Still talking a little bit about Siria just because two
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: other parties that I want to mention in this that
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: we haven't really gotten into. The first is Turkey and Turkey. Wow.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, like where do I start and how do
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: I say this in a way that allows me to
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: actually say it on the air. So tie up Airdiwan,
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: who is the President of Turkey right now. He was
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: originally the Prime Minister of Turkey from I think twenty
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  Speaker 2: three through twenty fourteen before he assumed the office of president.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: And the thing about Airdiwan, well, there's two things. The
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: first is he's an a hole, uh like, just completely like.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: The second is c number one and basically he has
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: an uncontrollable lust for power and trying to make himself
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: look bigger than he is and will do basically anything
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: necessary in order to do so. The first like ten
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: years that he was in power in Turkey as the
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Prime minister, the whole premise of it was, Hey, I'm
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: like restoring democracy, I'm secularizing the nation, I'm trying to
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: make it more westernized, and he was hailed as like
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: this visionary who saw like where the where the puck
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: was going and was skating towards it. The last ten
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: years he's basically turned into an Islamist and has gone
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: the exact opposite way, including you know, basically basically trying
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: to needle everyone out there whenever possible, just to remind
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: them that he's there. And the only reason why he
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: even has any power at all is because Turkey occupies
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: such a central and important piece of land in the
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: world and other than that, no one would even care
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: or think about this.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: Guy because he's he's not maybe not nuts, No, he's
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: pretty much wacky policies.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: He's just a loser, like like, that's that's just the deal.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: And look, I'm kind of you know, I'm a little
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: bit biased on this because Turkey basically all they do
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: on a regular basis. Oh, hey, it's been two weeks
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: since we bomb the Kurds. Let's go bomb some Kurds somewhere. Hey,
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: you know what, way back in the day we killed
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: a bunch of Armenians. Are we ever going to apologize
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: for that. No, we're not, even though maybe we should.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: So I'm a little bit biased against Turkey, like in general,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: just because Airdiwan is not a nice dude and generally
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: just tries to beat upon everyone smaller than himself in
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: order to make him look tall. Okay, so shares a
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: massive border with Syria. But here's the thing. Airdiwan has
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: been one of the prime supporters of HTS, who is
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: going into a leadership role in Syria right now, so
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: potentially a pivotal move for Turkey in terms of their
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: influence there. And remember Turkey's part of the EU they're
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: part of NATO, and so this stuff matters because ultimately
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: you're talking about how this ends up factoring into US geopolitics,
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: and the US and Turkey they don't really get along
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: well right now, and they haven't for the last eight
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: to ten years. Turkey. When the F thirty five program
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: was being developed, Turkey was one of I think either
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: five or six countries that was selected to be part
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: of the manufacturing process for the F thirty five they
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: were gonna make, I forget exactly, I forget if it
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: was the engines or whatever they were gonna be involved there.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Turkey back in the mid twenty tens signed to deal
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: with Russia for S four hundred anti air missile systems,
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: and the US basically goes, you kidding, bro, like you're
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: gonna do what because here's the problem for the US. Okay,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: So you've got S four hundred missile systems that are
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Russian and you're making American planes, specifically the most advanced ones. Hey,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: you've got a whole bunch of data that can be
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: shared if those S four hundred start, you know, just
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: in practice or whatever, painting F thirty fives with their
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: radar in order to see what the radar signature looks like.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: So the US kicked Turkey out of the F thirty
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: five program and it's pretty much been downhill since then.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: But the US, for lack of a better word, has
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: an interest in Syria being stable, just because the instability
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: in Syria creates instability in the EU, which in turn
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: influences how the US behaves. So does the US try
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: to find some way to play nice because the US
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: is influencing other groups in Syria as well. Right now,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: there is a group called the SDF that the US
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: has been heavily backing. There are I think still about
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: like eight hundred or one thousand troops in Syria that
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: are US troops that occasionally, when the Turks get a
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: little bit out of control and you know, going after
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: the Kurds, the US, you know, has a couple operations.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: It's like, hey, we're still here, don't mess with us,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: is the best way I can put it. So the
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: US has an interest in a stable Syria, but I
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: don't know how interested they are and having a HTS
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: be the leader of that stable Syria. And so there's
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: going to be some negotiations and things that go on
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: between the US and Turkey in terms of figuring out
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: how this all works.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think in terms of that stability that the
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: United States wants, the last thing on the list they
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: want is a whole bunch of people again trying to flee.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: A war to one. Not that manymore that can flee, Like,
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  Speaker 2: if you haven't left at this point, you're probably thirteen.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: Year a civil war. So yeah, it's tough to imagine
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: how it gets worse than it has been for the
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: thirteen years. But see Libya, Sea, I Racks Sea, Afghanistan
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: for you know, not so distant history in terms of
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: how it can get, if not worse, then I guess
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: similarly and differently ugly.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: Other things that we just still don't know right now.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: It's unclear if Alasade is actually still alive. The Russian
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: government has claimed that he is in Moscow and has
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: claimed asylum there. But there was a I don't know
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: if it was a Russian or a Syrian transport plane
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: in Aisle seventy six that took off yesterday that basically
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: disappeared from radar after a quick drop, and no one
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: is entirely sure if he wasn't on that plane, because
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: he has not actually been seen in public during this time,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: so it's unclear exactly whether he's alive or not, and
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: that has some implications as to how this goes from
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: here as well. Just take a quick break. That's enough
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Syria talk for right now. When we come back, we're
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: gonna be talking TikTok and in video. We've also got
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Wall Street watch after this.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
• 19:45
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• 19:49
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  Speaker 5: Heads of Athletes, coaches and parents play for life, not
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• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Watch a complete look at what's moving markets so far
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: today right here on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: Markets are seeing modest losses to begin the week, as
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: Wall Street readies for a CPI inflation reading on Wednesday morning,
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday morning. At
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: the moment, the Dow is off by only twenty three points,
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: SMP five hundred is down by three tenths of a
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: percent or eighteen points, and the Nasdaq is off by
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: third of a percent or sixty six points. Russell two
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: thousand is up by over two thirds of a percent
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: or sixteen points. Tenor treasureeled is up by three basis
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: points at four point nine percent, and crude oil is
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: up nearly two and a half percent higher this morning,
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: trading just below sixty nine dollars a barrel. Some news
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: out of Chip and AI Giant and Video this morning,
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: where China opened an antitrust probe into the chip maker
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: a week after the US placed additional export controls on
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: China's access to high end semiconductors, and Video shares are
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: off by over two percent. Chuck and Michael will have
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: more on that item.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Coming up.
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: Breaking news out of the food industry as of a
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: half an hour ago, where Bloomberg is reporting that Mandolize
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: IgGs exploring an acquisition of iconic US chocolate maker Hershey
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: in a potential deal that would create a food giant
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: with combined sales of almost fifty billion dollars. Hershey shares
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: are jumping fourteen percent on the news, while Mandalie shares
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: are down by two percent. A huge merger deal to
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: was announced in the advertising space, where inter Public and
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: Omnicom agreed to merge in a deal that will create
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: the world's largest advertising firm by net revenue. Omniicom's stock
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: is down by six percent, while Interpublic shares are jumping
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: by ten percent and Macy's is up over three percent
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: Hire today after activist investors Barrington Capital called on the
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: retailer to change its capital allocation plan and create a
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: real estate unit to maximize the value of its owned assets.
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: I'm Tucker Silva and that's Wall Street Watch.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: I have a question for you both before we go
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: to TikTok. Yes, they're just talking about one of the names.
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: The two public publicist companies or the advertising companies Intercomm.
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: And Omnicom, and Interpublic.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Right, okay, so great names generally speaking, business to business
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: companies if they're massive or not terribly well known. We've
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: talked about this for like in Vidia, Right, nobody actually
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: knew what Invidia was, and I blame that primarily because
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: they don't sell to individuals. They sell to they do businesses.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: Does in Vidia sell to the.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Brendan Butter was graphics cards before all this stuff?
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: So granted I was like a huge nerd in high school.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: So you know, other companies do the same thing. What
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: do you think is the best known company that only
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: really sells to other businesses?
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: M best known company that only sell only sells to
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: other businesses.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: I guess I included Nvidia in there, and so I'm
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: going to go primarily only sells to businesses or drives,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: like ninety plus percent of their revenue from businesses.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: US steel Yeah, okay, because of its history. How often
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: do you go and just order an ibeam?
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Right? No?
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: Never? But household name.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, Salesforce is up there for me
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: these days because they're so prevalent. I think even though
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: they only sell the businesses, there's so many individual us.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: I just I don't know.
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: I thought I thought it was intriguing that, you know,
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: still people today don't really understand what it is that
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Nvidia does. And there's lots of other companies like that
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: that these two advertising companies, right, they created Got Milk,
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: and I've never heard of them most well known.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm trying to go through and think of like
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: who else would fall into that category. And again the
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: ones where you look at you're like, oh, like yeah,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: they're big, but yeah, no one, no one knows them.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: And I wouldn't include something like an Exon mobile. Technically
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: they don't sell to you, right, but like that's a
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: but the brand still is kind of nitty gritty, like
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: when you go to an Exon station, Yeah, it's hey,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: Exon Mobile has sold to that station and that station
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: has bought the branding. But it's basically a franchise model.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: That'd be like saying McDonald's does. Yeah, I don't think
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: that holds up really. Yeah, I would go Steals. Yeah,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: that's a fair one, only because it's history other ones
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: who sell own to like corporations, am Oracle. Yeah, that's
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: in the conversation. Yeap, that's in the conversation. I think yeah, Boeing.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, sure, you know Boeing's up there, you knowing Boeing
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: beats out Salesforce most certainly, even though.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Technically you can buy a Boeing jet.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: But it falls into the same categories in video, right
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: like ninety plus percent.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, person's not going out and buying a Boeing jet, right,
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: It's true, It's true. Okay, Sorry, interesting thought exercise. We
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: can move on. I just I was compelled by that one.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: It's funny because then you literally do just get into
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: all the defense contractors like Raytheon. Sure, but not.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: Again, Raytheon incredibly well known. Here does the average American
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: race that that is?
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: No?
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Probably not? Okay, that was a good question, a good conversation.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about TikTok. This is a company that everyone knows.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: They are the social media company run by byte Dance,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: who is a Chinese firm.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: With one hundred and seventy million users in the United States.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: That's a compelling number.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: And because of Byteedance being based in China and the
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Chinese having a national security law that requires byte Dance
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: to hand over any information that the Chinese government requests,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: or any other company operating in China, Yes, not just excls.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Because of that, the US government earlier this year voted
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: to pass a bill, so this was legislated. This was
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: not an unelected judge making this decision. It wasn't an
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: unelected bureaucrat. It was not me, it was not Tucker.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: This was the House of Representatives. And the US Senate
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: said we are going to ban TikTok from operating after
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: January nineteenth, twenty twenty five, unless it is sold to
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: a different buyer. That was affirmed by an appeals court
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: judge last week. And now this is the sad part
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: that you see, which is people have built legitimate businesses
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: on TikTok. I know, we like always rip on people
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: for being influencers and stuff like that, but the fact is,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: look a lot of us are in businesses where if
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: you really looked at it, you'd be like, come on,
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: that can't be an actual business. Like, so I don't
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: bemoan anyone from getting their business off the ground on
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: social media or being an influencer or anything else. Like
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: it's listen, We're all just trying to make a few
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: bucks in order to try to you know, pay for
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: whatever it is that we're doing by the way they build.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: A past in Congress. Just so everyone's clear on this
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: when we talk about bipartisan past. This thing passed with
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: three hundred and sixty yes votes.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: You couldn't get that for you know, the sky is blue, right,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Actually you could, but it would be close. Yeah, it'd
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: be tight. So when you look at this, the sad
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: part on this is the people that have built platforms
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: on TikTok to be able to make a lot of
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: money and now just by virtue of hey, we built
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: our business in a company that quite honestly, if they
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: decide not to sell, it's evidence of two things. The
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: first is it's evidence that TikTok never really cared about
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: the money and that all they wanted was the intelligence collection.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: Because if if bite Dad's actually cared about the value
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: of the asset, they sell it, they don't just say no,
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: we'll let this go dark on January nineteenth, right, or
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: or it's.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: You can't do that because you'll end up being disappeared
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: in China. I could buy that too, like not caring
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: about the money, or you do care about the money,
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: but you understand that if you do go and sell it,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: then you will be disappeared in mainland China.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Maybe sex one half does, Sex one does. I could
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: see that being a case. But the other thing is, look,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: it's it's it's something where the parent of TikTok is
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: also very clearly here saying, hey, all those people who
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: built businesses on our platform, we don't care enough to
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: throw you a lifeline. Fair because they can get around this,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: right All they have to do. All you have to
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: do is sell to a US company that's approved, right, Like,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: that's it, And it does not seem like that's going
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: to be an effort that's made. So you get the
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: stories that are coming out about people who spent, you know,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: the last five six years building these businesses on this platform.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: And as someone who you know in the past has
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: spent a lot of time building up, you know, different
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: social media presences for different things, it takes a lot
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: of work. It takes a lot of time. It's a
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: real job. And and ultimately if it just goes away,
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: you kind of look at it and you're like, man, like,
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: why did I do that? And it's it's completely capricious,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: where like the fact that you chose to build on
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: TikTok instead of snapchatter instead of on Twitter or wherever
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: you were saying, great, this is where the eyeballs are,
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: this is where I need to go. It's it's not
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: because you because you love the China business. We're like,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: you know what, you know who really loves small business?
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: The Chinese Communist Party like that. That's not what anyone
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: starting a a TikTok channel is doing.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: And generally I feel for these creators too, because it's
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: not really within their purview or their job to assess
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: whether or not this is gonna shut down. It's a
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: national security threat, Like I don't really put that on
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: the arms of somebody who's building content on TikTok.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: But this is also why I say, look, in order
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: for people to be able to actually go and take risks,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: you need a baseline level of stability and safety because
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: if if you are in a situation where, hey, if
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: you're in China and companies are being shut down left
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: and right for you know, random reasons that the Chinese
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: government wants to eventually just say, look, I'm not going
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: to do this because it's not worth it. And so
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: this is why you need to be able to catch
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: this stuff earlier than TikTok getting to one hundred and
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: seventy million users. You need a better you need a
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: better plan for enforcing actions against Chinese companies. Then wait
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: until it gets so big that everyone knows it, and
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: by then it's already a problem. You need something better
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: than that.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: You do.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: But that's a very quick game of whack a mole.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: And I don't disagree.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: But think of the number of stuff that we import
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: into the United States. It's not just social media platforms,
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: it's everything else that's connected to the Internet, and trying
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: to shut it all down because it is a concern
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: that they can share the data. Welcome to every single
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: device that is connected to the Internet in your home.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: Yes, but I'm exaggerating, but that is important. I just
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: make this point. We all choose different jobs and different
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: roles in life. And for someone who's working at the
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: US government, whether they are representative, a senator, whether they
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: are in who's the group that handles the cybersecurity for
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: the US government, I can't remember the guy who used
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: to run. His name was Chris Krebs. I don't know
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: what the there's a group there that does this stuff.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: And then you've also got was it Cephius the Council
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: for Investment in US Business. So you've got like US
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: government groups that their job is to not let stuff
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: like this get to the point where it has one
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: hundred and se any million US users. Guys, you chose
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: that job. We all chose our jobs. I have days
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: where I don't want to get up and talk on
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: the radio because I'm a little tired. But if I
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: wind and complained about that, what am I really doing?
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: Like you chose the job of assessing the risk of
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: foreign companies starting businesses in the US. You gotta deal
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: with it, yeah, like them's the breaks. We don't just
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: get to whine about it and say, oh, well it's hard,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: like sorry, suck it up, buttercup. I don't know, Like
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: I don't have sympathy for someone who gets into a
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: business and then complain, or not even a business, gets
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: into a career and then just complains about the career
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: and how hard it is. Yeah, I'll put that mainly
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: on Congress. Either do a better job or get a
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: different career. But you don't just get to whind about
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: how hard it is, like, sorry, there's a reason why
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: I don't do that job, because I don't want to
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: wind about how hard it is. You know, let's take
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: a quick break. When we come back, let's talk about
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: the other side of this though, the potential for retaliation
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: from China and video in the news. This morning, I'll
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: tell you why.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Like our page
• 33:12
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• 33:15
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• 33:20
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• 33:27
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• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Last segment, we were talking a little bit about TikTok
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: and the upcoming TikTok band that'll start in I think
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: forty three days. The other side of this. Early this morning,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: I wake up and I get a little biz on
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: my phone that says, hey, there's an update from CNBC,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: The Wall Street, Bloomberg, everyone who picked it up all
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: at once. In Vidia reportedly being probed by China's State
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Administration for Market Regulation for anti trust concerns and like,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: hard to read it as anything other than the immediate. Really,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: here's the thing. In China. You can have a monopoly
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: as long as the government says that you can. Yes,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: we know this because in the number of industries they're
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: basically are monopolies of Chinese state owned enterprises. So the
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: fact that in video is being looked at here, I
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: have to believe is very much okay, Fine, you're going
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: to prevent our companies from operating easily in the US.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: We're going to do the same for the biggest one
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: that you have here in China.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: Stock is down three percent this morning, by the way,
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: And you may be wondering, because it's been pretty public
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: that the Chinese and Chinese based companies don't really have
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: access to in Vidia's highest order, most technologically advanced AI chips.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: The fact that matter, though, is they also produced a
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: whole bunch of them that are not that they produce
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: a lot of products that are sold across the globe
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: and in China in particular, that are not used for
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: developing the latest AI models or this, that or the other,
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: and that hit to that business. You know, the revenues
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: that they derive from those easier to manufacture and less
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: complicated chips fund a lot of the research and development
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: they do into these, you know, most important ones, and
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: so yes, a ban on chip you know production or rather,
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: you know chip consumption in the mainland China from even
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: these lower end chips would be pretty darn bad for Nvideo.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: So this is something where hey, if we are actually
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: going to try to bring about some kind of fairness
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: in trade with China, and you know, not just fairness
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: in trade, but also hey, realizing that we don't want
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: Chinese entities snooping around at the behest of the you know,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Chinese Communist Party. There's going to be some pain coming back.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: This is not going to be free and easy. It's
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: gonna take a little bit of time and a little
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: bit of work.
• 36:02
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• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Mike, I want to go back to a topic that
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: we recover. I think it was a week ago, which
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: was the opening debuts of Wicked and Mawana too. How
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: they're doing not great? Really? Yes, well they're fine, Like
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: they're both gonna make a ton of money. Yeah, there's
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: there's no problem there. I noted last week. Hey, like,
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: based on the early returns that we're seeing, the week
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: over week drop off is pretty light on Wicked, and
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: so there's a chance this could be, you know, something
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: that runs for a while and ends up in a
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good spot. I got a bit an egg on
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: my face after this one? Can it dropped off? The
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: dailies that we are seeing right now are anywhere from
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: fifty eight to seventy one percent drop offs for this week. Actually, sorry,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: forty eight to seventy one percent drop offs. Typical drop
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: off that you'd like to see is somewhere around thirty
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: five to forty, so they're coming in much much steeper. Granted,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: some of this is you know, skewed because of the
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: Thanksgiving week, but it's clear that Thanksgiving week was also
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: propping things up a little bit. So, yes, Wicked is
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: going to make a boatload of money, but it's not
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: going to make two boatloads of money and be a
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: top ten movie all time in the US. Grossana too.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: Similar story. Malana two is right in the same boat.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: Actually some steeper ones. Mawana on Wednesday, which again Thanksgiving
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Wednesday to this one like tough comp down ninety two steep.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: I'm just you know, finding myself as the parent of
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: three daughters between the ages of six and eight, shocked
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: that they have no interest in going to see Malwana too.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: That was played so many times in our house.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: My niece was all about it on day one but.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: Very interested in going to see Wicked.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: I think because one of their friends is you know,
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: big into. I think saw the Broadway play. I don't know,
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: can't make sense of it, but no big push to
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: get them tom Wana two, which I am relieved about.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: It does appear that is good, Mike, don't kid you
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: saw one was Yeah. The second one does not have
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: lin Manuel Miranda running the song, so oh, I've heard
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: that's a big drop off the boy. Let's take a
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: quick break. We got hour two coming up in a
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: little bit.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Sh