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Best Bets NFL Week 11 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast presented by BET.
0:12
Speaker 2: Three sixty five. We are part of the Action Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chaddelman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:18
Speaker 1: Today is our week eleven, Thursday NFL episode. This is
0:22
Speaker 1: the episode where we will get feedback from the wise
0:26
Speaker 1: guys who listen to the show, make our survivor pick
0:30
Speaker 1: and build our money line, Underdog round Robin, where we
0:36
Speaker 1: give out our Foxhole bet and our Big Balls bet
0:40
Speaker 1: of the week, and where we narrow down our picks
0:43
Speaker 1: for the free to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand
0:46
Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest because, as our old
0:50
Speaker 1: pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of
0:52
Speaker 1: money out there.
0:53
Speaker 3: Because there's a sea of money out there.
0:55
Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
0:57
Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website favorite
1:00
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1:03
Speaker 1: before kickoff on Sunday. If you prefer using the award
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Speaker 1: winning Action app, you can track all the bets. Simon
1:09
Speaker 1: and I lock in by following two accounts, the Phase
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Speaker 1: Five's and The Favorites Podcast. Let's bring in my co host,
1:14
Speaker 1: My companion, Michael padre My BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter
1:20
Speaker 1: Hidos So I'm.
1:21
Speaker 3: In Hello, hot Chab.
1:24
Speaker 1: I want to get to all of it because things
1:26
Speaker 1: are crazy right now. First, let me remind people the
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Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,
2:01
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
2:05
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Reminder before we get to
2:12
Speaker 1: sharp calls, we do.
2:14
Speaker 2: Have a big announcement. The Favorites is going live.
2:17
Speaker 1: We're doing it live on December third, that is a
2:21
Speaker 1: Sunday live from New Jersey at The Shepherd and the
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Speaker 1: Knucklehead in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey. Doors open at three
2:32
Speaker 1: forty five for the four pm NFL games. We'll be
2:35
Speaker 1: hanging out, me and Simon with our listeners, having in
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Speaker 1: a blast, and then recording our Sunday recap episode live
2:42
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Speaker 2: You must RSVP.
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Speaker 1: There'll be prize, drinks, warm embraces from me and Simon,
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Speaker 1: so much more. You can see the link to RSVP
2:57
Speaker 1: in the description of the So it's going to be
3:00
Speaker 1: a blast. December third week eleven kickoff is coming up.
3:04
Speaker 1: Opportunities all over the board. I know Simon doesn't like
3:07
Speaker 1: it when I say, let's not dilly dally, but it
3:09
Speaker 1: is time for Shark.
3:14
Speaker 3: Hello, who's there. I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range.
3:19
Speaker 2: Somebody's saying, maybe what you do.
3:22
Speaker 3: Man, this week is brutal. I feel like it's another
3:26
Speaker 3: week of like I thought everyone would be on the
3:28
Speaker 3: same side, and I'll start with the games. I got
3:30
Speaker 3: pushedback on. I got some pushback on I like Washington.
3:33
Speaker 3: I got some pros that they like the Giants. I'm
3:36
Speaker 3: not seeing it like I think their pushback is like, well,
3:39
Speaker 3: look how they played earlier in the season. They played
3:40
Speaker 3: a really tough, close game. I feel like these are
3:42
Speaker 3: two different teams at this point right on. One team
3:45
Speaker 3: has been going one way, the other teams going another way,
3:47
Speaker 3: and the confidence of both these teams are different. So
3:49
Speaker 3: I am shocked that they like this number and they
3:52
Speaker 3: bet it down as well, Like maybe they only liked
3:54
Speaker 3: it at ten and now they don't like it. Now
3:56
Speaker 3: that's moved off and it's down day and a half
3:58
Speaker 3: for a lot of books. But this is interesting because
4:00
Speaker 3: I really didn't think anyone was gonna be on the Giants,
4:03
Speaker 3: and a shocking amount of guys I've talked to like
4:06
Speaker 3: the Giants. Same goes for the Houston Texans. You know,
4:10
Speaker 3: I like Arizona. I like thereson a number. I still
4:13
Speaker 3: like it. Talked to whole bunch of guys. They like Houston,
4:17
Speaker 3: they liked the number. They they were happy it was
4:19
Speaker 3: coming down, and they hit it again and now it's
4:22
Speaker 3: going back up at a couple of books. I'm surprised
4:25
Speaker 3: by it. I am if I said to them, it
4:28
Speaker 3: feels like they're buying high in Houston. Their argument is
4:31
Speaker 3: against Kyler and this Arizona team coming off a win,
4:34
Speaker 3: and I think they're just viewing it wrong. So that's
4:37
Speaker 3: another one we're definitely gonna dive into more. But yeah,
4:40
Speaker 3: for for agreeance, it's been it was an easy week.
4:43
Speaker 3: Me and Chad talked, thought we had a lot of
4:44
Speaker 3: picks we liked. The boys are on the same thing
4:47
Speaker 3: like the guys they like Denver. You know, no shock there.
4:51
Speaker 3: We're gonna break that one down even more. But you've
4:53
Speaker 3: seen that number move now, so I think I got
4:56
Speaker 3: down to one and a half. We talked about it
4:58
Speaker 3: at two one and a half. Now almost every book
5:01
Speaker 3: is two and a half sou.
5:02
Speaker 2: And head into three.
5:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, so not nut shocking. That's pros versus shows. The
5:06
Speaker 3: public is going to be on. The Vikings are a
5:08
Speaker 3: fun story. Yeah, I can't. I can't. I can't knock
5:12
Speaker 3: them forward. Even if we lose that bet, it's still
5:15
Speaker 3: when that me and Chad have to make. And now
5:17
Speaker 3: it's giving me more confident than making one over five
5:20
Speaker 3: putting Denver in there, So that's definitely game we're gonna
5:22
Speaker 3: go over. Yeah, the Pros love Carolina Panthers. Another game
5:26
Speaker 3: we need to break down more. You know it's just
5:30
Speaker 3: another game that it's gonna be all public money on
5:32
Speaker 3: the Cowboys and it's only gonna be professional money on
5:35
Speaker 3: the Panthers. Like that game really sticks out. I can't
5:39
Speaker 3: even bring it up, but I mean it. I'm still
5:42
Speaker 3: gonna bet it. I'll still be on the Eagles, but
5:44
Speaker 3: I don't think I'll be one of me and Chad's five.
5:46
Speaker 3: Gotten a lot of pushback on it, a lot of
5:48
Speaker 3: a lot of the pros loving the Chiefs, and I
5:51
Speaker 3: think it's like the numbers even gave us right. They
5:53
Speaker 3: love those trend numbers. They love the Andy Reid numbers
5:55
Speaker 3: after a bye. They love Andy Reid on extended rest.
5:58
Speaker 3: They love my homes on three, which they were betting
6:01
Speaker 3: for four days and you could still get to and
6:03
Speaker 3: a half if you want. I just I mean again,
6:07
Speaker 3: we'll break it down. I just there's just something about
6:09
Speaker 3: this game. The fact that this was Jalen Hurts's lock screen,
6:14
Speaker 3: was that confetti from that Super Bowl all off season,
6:18
Speaker 3: and I just think it's the human element of the Eagles.
6:20
Speaker 3: Been looking and thinking about this game all off season,
6:24
Speaker 3: and man, it's shocking that guys are like putting, you know,
6:29
Speaker 3: a decent amount of money into this Chiefs team. I
6:31
Speaker 3: just feel like this is a bad spot for them.
6:32
Speaker 3: So I'm pretty interesting to hear all the professionals on
6:35
Speaker 3: that one. And yeah, for the last one before we
6:39
Speaker 3: break down all these games, I'm hoping he took the
6:42
Speaker 3: ten on the Bears. The pros loved it. They've come in,
6:45
Speaker 3: they've betted down now to seven and a half despite
6:48
Speaker 3: all the money, all the tickets, all the bets are
6:50
Speaker 3: coming in on the lines, and you've seen that number
6:52
Speaker 3: now drop from ten to seven and a half. Might
6:56
Speaker 3: keep dropping, like I would grab it, even if you're
6:58
Speaker 3: just you're still like you're still a little scared, and
7:00
Speaker 3: you're like, I don't know if I want to bet
7:01
Speaker 3: against this Lions team. Come on, guys, the numbers dictating
7:05
Speaker 3: if you check, give you all the numbers about these
7:06
Speaker 3: divisional dogs, and the professionals like it. Now, you're not
7:10
Speaker 3: gonna be get that as good as a number as
7:11
Speaker 3: the professionals. And that stinks, But that's the way it goes, right.
7:15
Speaker 3: I Mean, we're me and chatter in the same boat.
7:16
Speaker 3: We're not gonna have that good number in our contest.
7:18
Speaker 3: That that number is gone. But I still think seven
7:20
Speaker 3: and a half still still showing value, so not too
7:24
Speaker 3: shocking here. The boys love that one. It's come down
7:27
Speaker 3: now one more big favorite. I will say, I love Miami.
7:32
Speaker 3: It's there's some pros on it, but it's not unanimous, right,
7:35
Speaker 3: It's not everyone's just piling on this big favorite. And
7:38
Speaker 3: I thought it would be between all the professionals, but
7:41
Speaker 3: talk to a couple guys who like it. Whether it's
7:42
Speaker 3: been a couple people have no opinion on that Raiders game.
7:44
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's definitely an interesting game. We've seen that
7:47
Speaker 3: Miami number move from eleven and a half on Tuesday
7:51
Speaker 3: up to thirteen and a half now on Thursday. So
7:54
Speaker 3: definitely a lot of conversations this week about these big favorites.
7:58
Speaker 1: Fascinating, fascinating, fascinating. This is the science of betting right now,
8:03
Speaker 1: because so much of what you just said in your
8:06
Speaker 1: breakdown of the sharp calls are the notes that I
8:09
Speaker 1: put into our script for each game, down to which
8:14
Speaker 1: we're going to put in our five do we still
8:16
Speaker 1: like a big number that moved? And also like we'll
8:20
Speaker 1: dive into all of it. It's a crazy interesting week.
8:23
Speaker 1: As a reminder, catch every episode of the Favorites live
8:25
Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
8:28
Speaker 1: give us a like. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
8:30
Speaker 1: Let's start narrowing down our games. We got to get
8:32
Speaker 1: to the foxhol we got to get to Survivor, we
8:34
Speaker 1: got to get to the big Balls bet of the week.
8:37
Speaker 1: Some so much movement since we spoke on Tuesday, including
8:41
Speaker 1: with so many of the games that we liked. So
8:43
Speaker 1: I'm gonna review the ones that we talked about the most.
8:46
Speaker 2: I expect that.
8:48
Speaker 1: Our menu of games that we talked about on Tuesday
8:51
Speaker 1: and loved is going to expand because the movement has
8:55
Speaker 1: been so aggressive. The first game up it's aligned with
8:58
Speaker 1: this question. Mitchell pulled some of the data from the
9:02
Speaker 1: week eleven contest entry so far, can you guess the
9:07
Speaker 1: most picked team so far?
9:10
Speaker 3: I would hope it's our our loyal listeners took Pittsburgh,
9:14
Speaker 3: but I'm not sure Miami. So they listened.
9:17
Speaker 2: By the way, it's our loyal listeners.
9:19
Speaker 1: They listened to you, clearly they listened to me. It's
9:25
Speaker 1: more than two times the next closest pick. So let's
9:29
Speaker 1: talk about Miami for a second. Because we loved this
9:32
Speaker 1: game on Tuesday and it's.
9:34
Speaker 3: Our most public bet of the week, probably right.
9:36
Speaker 1: We loved it on Tuesdays eleven and a half or twelve.
9:39
Speaker 1: It was the rare double digit favorite that we were
9:43
Speaker 1: willing to bet, willing to take. It went up to twelve,
9:47
Speaker 1: it went up to twelve and a half. You were like,
9:49
Speaker 1: when he gets at thirteen, you got to stop. Now
9:51
Speaker 1: it's at thirteen and a half, so it's a tough one.
9:55
Speaker 3: I don't think in the.
9:55
Speaker 1: Contest at thirteen and a half, we're going to want
9:57
Speaker 1: this one.
9:59
Speaker 3: I know. And that's what stinks. It's moved so much,
10:01
Speaker 3: but I just said it, it's like professional money came in.
10:05
Speaker 3: I kind of thought they were going through just because
10:06
Speaker 3: I love the number so much. I'm not the biggest,
10:08
Speaker 3: big favorite better, but there's just certain teams on certain
10:11
Speaker 3: seasons that I just like riding as big favorites, and
10:13
Speaker 3: Miami's that team where it's like they got the horsepower,
10:16
Speaker 3: like they got the dogs on the outside to get
10:18
Speaker 3: those kind of points, and defensively they got the guys
10:21
Speaker 3: to get the stops. Like big deal Ramsey coming back.
10:25
Speaker 3: I know it's gonna take them a mint to get
10:26
Speaker 3: back into form, but we talk all the time. When
10:29
Speaker 3: you have a cornerback that can shut down half the field,
10:33
Speaker 3: it can totally can change a whole defense. It really
10:36
Speaker 3: is such a big deal getting that number one shut
10:38
Speaker 3: down corner. So yeah, it's it's a nice spot for Miami.
10:42
Speaker 3: We talked Miami at home to at home tends to
10:45
Speaker 3: perform well in these spots. Thirteen and a half is
10:49
Speaker 3: a big number, But I'm gonna do my best not
10:51
Speaker 3: to let it scare it off and join the fancier
10:53
Speaker 3: on this one. I just an O'Connell might be able
10:56
Speaker 3: to put up some points and maybe we'll be able
10:58
Speaker 3: to run the ball and get the fourteen year twenty one.
11:01
Speaker 3: But I could see Miami getting way past that. Right.
11:03
Speaker 3: It just feels like this kind of game they could
11:04
Speaker 3: explode in where you're facing against a Raiders team that
11:08
Speaker 3: they would just beat up on two of the worst
11:11
Speaker 3: quarterbacks in all football with their interim head coach. Yeah,
11:16
Speaker 3: great story from the Raiders. They got really lucky last week, right,
11:19
Speaker 3: We already talked about the Jets had a touchdown taking
11:21
Speaker 3: off the board that would have changed the whole outlook
11:23
Speaker 3: of that game. So nice to see the professionals and
11:26
Speaker 3: the public aren't buying that the Raiders, you know, lucky
11:30
Speaker 3: wins here. And yeah, the fact that this number now
11:34
Speaker 3: has moved scares me a little. But here's a nice
11:36
Speaker 3: stat from Evan Tua eight no straight up six and
11:39
Speaker 3: two ats of a favor of seven or more so
11:43
Speaker 3: to has performed well is a big favorite. And yeah,
11:47
Speaker 3: I just I'm trying to think of ways this could
11:50
Speaker 3: go wrong and we'd have to have some bad turnover,
11:52
Speaker 3: luck and everything like that, but these are things you
11:54
Speaker 3: can predict. So yeah, value wise, I have this number
11:58
Speaker 3: of fourteen, So yes, we're only half a point of value.
12:02
Speaker 3: Nothing crazy like this wouldn't be one of my bigger
12:04
Speaker 3: bets at this number, just because the value has shifted
12:07
Speaker 3: so much, but it's still pun in contest. If we're
12:09
Speaker 3: having a tough time getting our fifth one in there,
12:12
Speaker 3: I wouldn't hate putting this one in. Like of all
12:13
Speaker 3: the big favorites, this is my favorite one this week.
12:16
Speaker 1: But look, I keep thinking about that Carolina game that
12:19
Speaker 1: Miami had where they were down fourteen to nothing in
12:21
Speaker 1: the first quarter and by the the first half they
12:24
Speaker 1: were thirty five to fourteen or something like that, and
12:27
Speaker 1: betting on Miami neck game Yeah, they just run over
12:30
Speaker 1: these teams. They run over these teams, and they're playing
12:32
Speaker 1: at home. This Raiders team is not good. People should
12:36
Speaker 1: not be buying into anything that's happened in the past two games.
12:39
Speaker 1: They're just they're a terrible team experiencing some huge momentum
12:45
Speaker 1: against really bad teams. Like as I talk about it,
12:49
Speaker 1: I feel more and more confident about this Miami game.
12:53
Speaker 3: It's hard not to.
12:55
Speaker 4: Shic cargo, hic cago, that Toddle in town Chicago, Chicago,
13:04
Speaker 4: I will show you around.
13:07
Speaker 3: I love it.
13:08
Speaker 1: On Sunday night, I said to you, I kind of
13:10
Speaker 1: like the Bears at a big number. I wasn't joking
13:14
Speaker 1: about it. You were kind of with me. By Tuesday,
13:17
Speaker 1: we were both all in on the Bears at plus ten.
13:21
Speaker 1: I debated making it my executive decision game before I
13:24
Speaker 1: decided to make the Steelers my executive decision game. The
13:28
Speaker 1: number is now down to seven and a half. You know,
13:31
Speaker 1: we'll do our YouTube exclusives, and we just recorded yesterday
13:36
Speaker 1: a video for an educational series we're doing on YouTube
13:39
Speaker 1: about terminology that we use here on the podcast, and
13:42
Speaker 1: the term that we talked about was closing line value,
13:45
Speaker 1: which basically means you want to get the best of
13:47
Speaker 1: the number. I talk about it all the time. It's
13:49
Speaker 1: why you got to listen to the Sunday Show because
13:51
Speaker 1: sometimes we're betting early and we know which way the
13:53
Speaker 1: lines are going to go. This is when we felt
13:55
Speaker 1: the line was going to move in our direction. Closingline
13:59
Speaker 1: value matters only when it matters, right that That was
14:02
Speaker 1: sort of your takeaway on this. I'm not afraid of
14:05
Speaker 1: the seven and a half in the contest.
14:07
Speaker 3: I'm not either, but it's not ideal like this. This
14:10
Speaker 3: number at ten made more sense. This is a lot
14:13
Speaker 3: of movement for a guy that doesn't win games, and
14:18
Speaker 3: he's not like he's the greatest covering quarterback either. I
14:20
Speaker 3: mean justin Fields, he's gonna He's added to that list
14:25
Speaker 3: of the all hype guys. Like a few people have
14:27
Speaker 3: gotten more hype and done less with it than Justin Fields.
14:30
Speaker 3: And you know the talents there. I think I think
14:34
Speaker 3: someone pushing some crazy stat that he is just maybe
14:37
Speaker 3: he has more passing touchdowns than Trevor Lawrence at this
14:40
Speaker 3: point of this season, and Trevor Lawrence hasn't missed any games,
14:43
Speaker 3: so yeah, we know the talents there. We've seen these
14:46
Speaker 3: moments and these flashes from Fields. Man, that's a big movement. Chad,
14:51
Speaker 3: like three points of movement. I think he is worth it.
14:54
Speaker 3: I mean, they're they're back up. I joked all the
14:56
Speaker 3: time with Chad, like this guy was not a starter, right,
14:59
Speaker 3: He's someone that need to learn the offense, he needs
15:02
Speaker 3: to learn how to protect the ball, and he's gonna
15:03
Speaker 3: have some growing pains. And Justin Fields looks the part
15:07
Speaker 3: we compare it to him, right, You're like, no, Justin
15:09
Speaker 3: Fields is one of the thirty two best quarterbacks. He
15:12
Speaker 3: should be a starter, should be playing in the league.
15:14
Speaker 3: But all the stats, that's what scares you off. I mean,
15:17
Speaker 3: Evan's just flooding us with stats. Justin Fields nine twenty
15:21
Speaker 3: one and one ats in his career. Justin Fields is
15:25
Speaker 3: one in ten straight up two and nine ats versus
15:29
Speaker 3: the NFC North. These are all really bad stats. This
15:32
Speaker 3: dude is bad. And if you know this show and
15:35
Speaker 3: you know Chad, we've been betting the Bears basically every
15:39
Speaker 3: time in this spot because there's always gonna be value
15:42
Speaker 3: on her, right, because we both think there's there's a
15:44
Speaker 3: ton of talent with Fields, and you know this Bears team,
15:48
Speaker 3: Say what you want about him. They're usually in all
15:50
Speaker 3: these games right go through their schedule. It's not like
15:52
Speaker 3: they're getting dominated blown out even when they had it
15:54
Speaker 3: back up in there. So I'll do it with Chad.
15:58
Speaker 3: I'll bite it and I'll take the seven. But I
16:00
Speaker 3: totally get it people if you're just so burned out
16:03
Speaker 3: on Justin Field's experience and taking a number and then
16:06
Speaker 3: getting burned by him because he does make stupid turnovers
16:09
Speaker 3: and that's all part of it. But how do we
16:12
Speaker 3: avoid this one? I'm trying to think of ways when
16:14
Speaker 3: you avoid this, but it's it's such a big number
16:16
Speaker 3: against a Lions team that, yeah, they might be put
16:19
Speaker 3: the points up, but do we trust their defense not
16:21
Speaker 3: to get back door? And that's the key with this
16:23
Speaker 3: number here. It's like this back door should always be
16:26
Speaker 3: open for us with Justin Field. So I'm getting there,
16:29
Speaker 3: maybe this will be one of our five, but it's
16:31
Speaker 3: just hard for me to swallow where it's like Evan
16:32
Speaker 3: hits us with those stats, and I have to remember
16:35
Speaker 3: that Justin Fields is nine and twenty one ats in
16:39
Speaker 3: his career, which is just insane.
16:42
Speaker 1: So forget about those stats for a second. Let's find
16:45
Speaker 1: different stats to.
16:47
Speaker 2: Nerve number one.
16:50
Speaker 1: This game was way overinflated, and obviously the inflation has
16:53
Speaker 1: come out of it.
16:54
Speaker 2: The wise guys bet the numbers.
16:55
Speaker 1: It was gone ten like in the last forty hours,
16:58
Speaker 1: has gone from ten to seven and a half. It's
17:00
Speaker 1: nearly going from one key number to another key number,
17:03
Speaker 1: and it'll probably get to seven. Don't forget home teams
17:08
Speaker 1: in the division since twenty fifteen, which is the lines
17:11
Speaker 1: in this case, cover against the spread at a forty
17:15
Speaker 1: seven percent rate. Home favorites in the division since twenty
17:19
Speaker 1: fifteen only covered a forty five percent rate. Division dogs
17:23
Speaker 1: the past twenty years ninety games over five hundred against
17:30
Speaker 1: the spread. Okay, so we're in a good spot here
17:35
Speaker 1: with the Bears, and I know what you're saying. I
17:38
Speaker 1: know it's scary. I know it's something where we've been
17:41
Speaker 1: burned in the past because of justin fields. But there's
17:45
Speaker 1: a lot of evidence. It's the same thing we talked
17:48
Speaker 1: about with the Browns last week. There's a lot of
17:51
Speaker 1: evidence here is that says take the road dog at
17:54
Speaker 1: a big number.
17:55
Speaker 3: It used to be a big number, now it's kind
17:57
Speaker 3: of big.
17:58
Speaker 2: Over a touchdown is still relatively big.
18:01
Speaker 3: Not for the Bears though, But yeah, I'm with you.
18:04
Speaker 3: I still think it's too high. I'm with Chad on him. Yeah,
18:07
Speaker 3: eight and a half. I would have felt so much
18:08
Speaker 3: better at putting this in the contest.
18:10
Speaker 1: That's what, listen, It's what makes the contest hard and
18:12
Speaker 1: what makes doing well in the contest so much more remarkable, right, Like,
18:15
Speaker 1: it is just not easy to find five games that
18:17
Speaker 1: you feel confident about like that every week.
18:20
Speaker 2: It's really really hard to do this sick time, Pittsburgh
18:31
Speaker 2: at Cleveland.
18:32
Speaker 1: This ended up being your assignment, says was Miami. My
18:35
Speaker 1: executive decision was Pittsburgh. We talked about this game last Sunday.
18:40
Speaker 1: It was at four and a half. We bettered at
18:42
Speaker 1: four and a half. I liked it as my executive
18:44
Speaker 1: decision at four. Obviously a lot to discuss here now
18:48
Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson out, Thompson Robinson starting their bypassing PJ.
18:54
Speaker 2: Walker.
18:56
Speaker 1: The reasons I liked this game at plus four, we're
19:00
Speaker 1: about Pittsburgh's playmakers on defense, three guys who graded out
19:06
Speaker 1: as the as top twenty edge rushers according to Pro
19:09
Speaker 1: Football Focus. Every time you turn on the television in
19:13
Speaker 1: the second half. These guys are making plays. They keep
19:15
Speaker 1: the Steelers in the game. We know it's not Kenny Pickett.
19:18
Speaker 1: We know it's not the offense. It's about what this
19:20
Speaker 1: defense does to make plays. So the line obviously is
19:25
Speaker 1: now down to plus one. I will not middle this game, Simon,
19:32
Speaker 1: There's no middling. The same stats still apply for the
19:36
Speaker 1: Steelers that applied for the Bears as sort of the
19:39
Speaker 1: road team and division games. I don't think we can
19:42
Speaker 1: put it in the contest that whatever it's going to be,
19:45
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a plus one plus a half whatever.
19:48
Speaker 1: It's a pass completely for me at this number.
19:51
Speaker 3: Not for me. I still love Pittsburgh. Yeah. The craziest
19:56
Speaker 3: thing to me though, again, media is the weirdest shit ever.
19:59
Speaker 3: What these people pick and choose what stories to run with. Okay,
20:03
Speaker 3: so we just had what was the exact injury to Watson?
20:07
Speaker 3: Do you know the exact injury with what happened to
20:08
Speaker 3: him Chad shoulder injury? Yes, and you know what he
20:11
Speaker 3: did to his shoulder fracture, right, So this man went
20:18
Speaker 3: into the locker room, got a ton of drugs, came
20:20
Speaker 3: back on when fourteen for fourteen passing, and won a game.
20:24
Speaker 3: High as a kite. No one's talking about. Everyone's talk
20:27
Speaker 3: about how tough he is. And also there's shit, It's like, dude,
20:30
Speaker 3: this dude was high as shit, loose as hell. I mean,
20:34
Speaker 3: he should do that for the rest of his career,
20:35
Speaker 3: Like if that's the miracle drug for him. Where it's like,
20:38
Speaker 3: this dude just needs to get feeling good to play
20:40
Speaker 3: good because that was his best half in three years.
20:44
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, he shit not just throwing, by the way,
20:47
Speaker 1: he was running for first downs, he was dodging tacklers.
20:51
Speaker 3: Oh, if go back and watch it. I watched it.
20:52
Speaker 3: You can clearly tell this man is on something, okay,
20:55
Speaker 3: cause it's like it doesn't make sense. This man's taking
20:59
Speaker 3: hits and he's getting right back up and it's all good.
21:02
Speaker 3: And I just love that knowing the media touch on
21:03
Speaker 3: They're like, how tough is this Deshaun Watson? How gritty
21:06
Speaker 3: is this guy coming back? It's like, oh my god,
21:09
Speaker 3: oh my god, everyone's bearing the lead here. This dude
21:12
Speaker 3: was crazy high and somehow had a perfect half and
21:15
Speaker 3: won an insane game. I mean yeah, like people like you, Chad,
21:19
Speaker 3: whoever bet the Browns last week, you must donate half
21:23
Speaker 3: that money to some type of charity that is not
21:24
Speaker 3: your money. That is that's insane. That is so insane,
21:28
Speaker 3: especial when you learn about his injuries. So yeah, nothing
21:32
Speaker 3: changed from me. I have a rookie quarterback going up
21:35
Speaker 3: against Tomlin and I don't have this statue in front
21:37
Speaker 3: of me. Maybe Emma can find him. But I love
21:40
Speaker 3: Tomlin against rookies. All right, hit that horn, babe, let's dance. Yeah,
21:44
Speaker 3: here we go. DTR will be the thirty fourth rookie
21:47
Speaker 3: quarterback to make his first start to face the Steelers
21:50
Speaker 3: under Mike Tomlin. Those qbs are five and twenty eight
21:53
Speaker 3: straight up with CJ one earlier this season. I think
21:57
Speaker 3: they blew him out right at home. Is DTR even
22:01
Speaker 3: with the type of talent that CJ is. No, you
22:04
Speaker 3: know he didn't urinate down his leg. Man, that's a
22:06
Speaker 3: great place to begin. We've seen DTR playing. I'm not
22:09
Speaker 3: gonna fault them for it. Right, he was thrown into
22:10
Speaker 3: a game and he just looked totally unprepared. You think
22:13
Speaker 3: one week of getting or three days again first team
22:16
Speaker 3: reps is going to help this kid before he plays
22:18
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in this defense with those backups on offensive line,
22:23
Speaker 3: Holy shit man, talk about a bad, bad spot for
22:26
Speaker 3: this Browns team. So if I'm still getting a plus number,
22:29
Speaker 3: I'm happy to take. And if you're scared that it's
22:31
Speaker 3: so low, go ahead, throw it in a teaser, do
22:33
Speaker 3: whatever you need a peace of mind. But I got
22:35
Speaker 3: this a minus two and a half for Pittsburgh now,
22:37
Speaker 3: So I'm showing a ton of value right now on
22:39
Speaker 3: this Pittsburgh line. So Jad might not still be in
22:42
Speaker 3: love with it, but maybe I can force him to
22:44
Speaker 3: take this one. As there's still a dog right now.
22:46
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna flip to them being a favorite
22:47
Speaker 3: by kickoff.
22:48
Speaker 2: Yeah.
22:49
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting is, as you're talking about it,
22:52
Speaker 1: I'm thinking to myself, why would I still be in
22:54
Speaker 1: on the Bearers and then not be in on the Steelers.
22:57
Speaker 2: It's like I got to be I either got to
22:59
Speaker 2: be in on both of them, or I can't be
23:00
Speaker 2: on either of them.
23:01
Speaker 1: The logic has to apply in both places, because the
23:03
Speaker 1: Steelers are actually a better team. And we're talking about
23:06
Speaker 1: a Browns team that is that it's offensive line is
23:09
Speaker 1: decimated going against a pass rushing team that is it's
23:13
Speaker 1: actually better than the Ravens.
23:14
Speaker 3: And people don't believe in Pittsburgh Chad. Yeah, people don't
23:17
Speaker 3: believe in this team. I mean you'll hear every day
23:19
Speaker 3: they're like they've been out gained in every single game.
23:21
Speaker 3: They're the only team in the NFL to do it.
23:22
Speaker 3: How are they six and three? Are there really about
23:24
Speaker 3: to be seven and three? It's just I can't get
23:27
Speaker 3: over how much people don't understand good coaching and how
23:30
Speaker 3: important red zone touchdowns are. It's like, I would be
23:33
Speaker 3: happy if I had a team that gave up five
23:35
Speaker 3: hundred yards per game and my team only put up
23:37
Speaker 3: two fifty, but we had three touchdowns in the red zone.
23:40
Speaker 3: They only had one, Like, we're gonna win those games.
23:42
Speaker 3: And that's exactly what Pittsburgh does. They just they're just
23:45
Speaker 3: a complete team. It's as if there's only it doesn't
23:47
Speaker 3: matter how many offensive yards you get. There's a special
23:49
Speaker 3: teams and a defensive unit. So yeah, Pittsburgh is a
23:53
Speaker 3: team where I just can't quit them like I'm and
23:56
Speaker 3: it stinks too, because it feels like I'm I'm betting
24:00
Speaker 3: them every week and it's like, uh, you know, we
24:03
Speaker 3: joke for the Russian a let, but it feels like
24:05
Speaker 3: a little bit like that where it's like, I'm gonna
24:06
Speaker 3: get caught by this team. I know what they are.
24:09
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, they keep getting good spots, Like they're a
24:11
Speaker 3: team that just keeps getting these randomly good spots. I
24:14
Speaker 3: mean they're catching Green Bay last week after a big win. Yeah,
24:18
Speaker 3: they got really lucky that the guys missed an extra point,
24:20
Speaker 3: that's why they covered the three and a half. But
24:22
Speaker 3: it's like that's that's the Pittsburgh way, Like they just
24:25
Speaker 3: have these kind of bounces go their way. So yeah,
24:28
Speaker 3: the fact that Cleveland's coming off such a big emotional win,
24:31
Speaker 3: now they have the letdown a losing their quarterback for
24:34
Speaker 3: the rest of the season. I totally get your guys
24:37
Speaker 3: angle if you want to take Cleveland. I mean, they're
24:39
Speaker 3: getting just about the same amount of money right now.
24:41
Speaker 3: I'm looking the action app it's pretty even even with
24:44
Speaker 3: the injury newsing. I think that's just because people don't
24:46
Speaker 3: believe in this Pittsburgh team, right That's just how it is, Chad.
24:49
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna hold firm and say I do believe
24:51
Speaker 3: in this team, and I believe them in this game.
24:55
Speaker 1: You know what, right now are three games Miami minus
24:58
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half Bears seven and a half in
25:00
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus one, and we're about to add one that
25:03
Speaker 1: I know we're an agreement on. Finally, a game that
25:06
Speaker 1: hasn't moved Dallas at Carolina Carolina plus ten and a half.
25:11
Speaker 2: The wise guys like it. We liked it.
25:13
Speaker 1: I did take a taste of the Panthers on the
25:15
Speaker 1: money line. You can see that in the Action Network app.
25:18
Speaker 1: All the stats for Dak is a favorite are important
25:21
Speaker 1: and relevant, but.
25:25
Speaker 2: I'm not.
25:27
Speaker 1: I like the other one. You know, we pick and
25:30
Speaker 1: choose what we want to believe. Here, teams with a
25:35
Speaker 1: winning percentage of twenty five percent or less fifty eight
25:38
Speaker 1: percent against the spread as a home dog of seven
25:41
Speaker 1: or more in the last twenty years that I like
25:44
Speaker 1: bigger sample sizes, and I'm like, I'm just never going
25:47
Speaker 1: to be a buyer of Dak Prescott as a nearly
25:51
Speaker 1: two touchdown favorite on the road. I like Dak as
25:53
Speaker 1: a big favorite at home, and we've bet him as
25:55
Speaker 1: a big favorite at home. This isn't a spot where
25:57
Speaker 1: I like Dak. So I think we're in agreement here. Carolina
26:00
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half is making it in.
26:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, we might get caught here because the Cowboys have
26:05
Speaker 3: been playing really well offensively this whole season. Even in
26:08
Speaker 3: their bad games, they're still moving the ball pretty well.
26:11
Speaker 3: Like that we talked about that CD and Dak Combo
26:13
Speaker 3: is just deadly right now. Right But the yeah, the
26:17
Speaker 3: big Achille Eels though, has got to be Pollard. Like
26:20
Speaker 3: they've made Pollard their number one running back? Shit have
26:23
Speaker 3: you heard his name since Week one? Like this man
26:26
Speaker 3: has totally disappeared. And if you look at the stats,
26:29
Speaker 3: Ezekal Elliott's getting more yards per carry right now this
26:32
Speaker 3: season than Pollard is, which is just crazy to think
26:35
Speaker 3: that's that, Like he's doing better up in New England,
26:38
Speaker 3: who's just a total train wreck than Pollard is behind
26:41
Speaker 3: that O line with Dak as his quarterback. It is bizarre.
26:45
Speaker 3: So you know, I want to make this our big
26:49
Speaker 3: balls bet, Chad, but I'm worried no one's gonna bet
26:51
Speaker 3: it but me and you. I'm just worried no one's
26:53
Speaker 3: gonna listen to us here, because that's how much ball
26:55
Speaker 3: as it takes. Like you're you're taking the worst team
26:58
Speaker 3: in football at home as a double digit dog against
27:03
Speaker 3: you know, perceived one of the best teams in all football,
27:05
Speaker 3: Like Dallas is hot right now, and they looked really
27:07
Speaker 3: good last week, and I totally get why you don't
27:09
Speaker 3: want to do it. Got to take this spot, like
27:11
Speaker 3: over long term, Chad just told you the numbers. You
27:14
Speaker 3: make this bet the rest of your life and this
27:17
Speaker 3: exact spot, with this number and this kind of matchup,
27:20
Speaker 3: you will be profitable long term. And that's what we're
27:22
Speaker 3: trying to teach you. So I want to make this
27:24
Speaker 3: big ball as Chad, you make you with me, Let's
27:25
Speaker 3: do it.
27:26
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Big Balls better the week.
27:31
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers plus ten and a half at home, We're
27:34
Speaker 1: gonna get screwed, totally gonna get just you know, sideways.
27:39
Speaker 3: There'll be a quick death though, which will be nice.
27:42
Speaker 1: Or we're gonna win because we put a little bit
27:44
Speaker 1: of taste in the money line.
27:46
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this is going the round robin. So you
27:48
Speaker 3: hate this now, you're gonna hate it even more with.
27:49
Speaker 2: You, I was struggling with, like, where are we gonna go?
27:53
Speaker 2: Big balls?
27:53
Speaker 1: I had it as a note for a different game,
27:55
Speaker 1: But this is great, so all good on that. We
27:58
Speaker 1: still need to do a foxhole, but maybe it's going
28:00
Speaker 1: to be a game later in the show, Minnesota and Denver.
28:03
Speaker 1: You just said when we were talking about sharp calls.
28:05
Speaker 1: I love that you said this. You had a feeling
28:07
Speaker 1: this was going to be in our contest. My first note,
28:10
Speaker 1: I have a feeling this will be in the contest,
28:14
Speaker 1: So why don't we just say it right now?
28:15
Speaker 2: Denver minds two and a half, so we're at five
28:18
Speaker 2: for the record.
28:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, part of it is because of the movement. You know,
28:21
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of challenges elsewhere. But we broke
28:24
Speaker 1: down Russell Wilson and Josh Jobs for our Faves film
28:27
Speaker 1: room session for YouTube produced by Hutton Jackson, who's also
28:31
Speaker 1: producing our video version of the podcast today, and why
28:34
Speaker 1: don't you tell people what you thought about Josh Dobbs
28:36
Speaker 1: And I'll tell people what I was able to discover
28:39
Speaker 1: about Russell Wilson and why we sort of are landing
28:42
Speaker 1: on Minnesota on Denver here.
28:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wanted to highlight what's working for Dobbs, and
28:50
Speaker 3: you know, people are just like blown away. They're like,
28:52
Speaker 3: why is this guy a journeyman? Why is no one
28:54
Speaker 3: giving him a long term chance? And what's wrong with
28:56
Speaker 3: all these teams passed on them? And it was basically
28:59
Speaker 3: highlight what is his strength is His strength is his legs,
29:02
Speaker 3: like his his movement in the pocket. Me and Chat
29:04
Speaker 3: are watching. It's incredible his how comfortable he was in
29:07
Speaker 3: the pocket. Body's flying all around him and he kept
29:10
Speaker 3: total composure, which is kind of thing you see from
29:12
Speaker 3: a guy who's been in the league a long time
29:14
Speaker 3: and he's kind of figured it out right. It's someone
29:17
Speaker 3: that they know the hits are going to come, but
29:19
Speaker 3: he's so calm and confident in the pocket. It is
29:22
Speaker 3: crazy to watch, and his movement and his running ability
29:24
Speaker 3: is amazing. But I wanted to highlight he's not a thrower.
29:28
Speaker 3: That's the reason why he's going to all these different teams. People.
29:31
Speaker 3: He's not a consistent thrower. That's his weakness. And you know,
29:35
Speaker 3: going back and watching that Vikings game, they've seen the
29:39
Speaker 3: offense to have him have one open read looks kind
29:42
Speaker 3: of right. They'd have him roll out and either be
29:44
Speaker 3: his tight end there that's breaking open, or you know,
29:47
Speaker 3: a wide receiver over the top. It would just be
29:48
Speaker 3: a simple one two read. That's the only option he has.
29:51
Speaker 5: It.
29:51
Speaker 3: If it's not there, he can run it for a
29:53
Speaker 3: couple of yards. And I love that they're doing that
29:55
Speaker 3: with him in the offense. You know incomes this Denver
29:58
Speaker 3: defense that they're just fast, Like if you go back
30:01
Speaker 3: and watch all their tape these last couple of weeks,
30:03
Speaker 3: they're fast across the board and they're hard to run
30:06
Speaker 3: the ball like that against, like a quarterback trying to scramble.
30:10
Speaker 3: I mean, that's what Mahome is one of the best
30:11
Speaker 3: in the league at right. Mahomes is so incredible doing
30:14
Speaker 3: what Dobbs is okay at, which is not panicleing the
30:17
Speaker 3: pocket it breaks down, he can scramble for you for
30:19
Speaker 3: that first down. Was he doing that against Denver in
30:22
Speaker 3: the two games they faced him, No, because they knew
30:23
Speaker 3: how to defend it. I think they'll run the same
30:25
Speaker 3: exact scheme against Dobbs here, where at least you have
30:28
Speaker 3: to worry about him passing so much as you do.
30:30
Speaker 3: It's the exact same thing as the Chiefs. You need
30:32
Speaker 3: to double the tight end, which is Hockinson, and you
30:35
Speaker 3: need to have a spy in the quarterback. So I
30:38
Speaker 3: think it's all there for Denver. But what really gives
30:41
Speaker 3: me confident shat is just the love and all the
30:45
Speaker 3: money and all the bets seeing it all come in
30:47
Speaker 3: on the vikings and the fact that the Lions reversed movement,
30:50
Speaker 3: like it's gone from one and a half to two
30:52
Speaker 3: to now it's at two and a half. I think
30:56
Speaker 3: this might get to three. Like, I just think the
30:58
Speaker 3: pros will keep betting this one just because Denver feels
31:01
Speaker 3: like they have found something and the Vikings feel like
31:05
Speaker 3: they are so due for a totally shit bad game.
31:09
Speaker 3: I mean, what are they on a five or six
31:10
Speaker 3: game win street. I mean, Kirk Cousins was playing amazing,
31:13
Speaker 3: they went on this crazy run. They bring in this
31:16
Speaker 3: backup Dobs who wins a road game I'm pretty sure
31:20
Speaker 3: against Atlanta and then he came home and just beat
31:22
Speaker 3: the Saints. Like we joke all the time, the NFC
31:27
Speaker 3: South might be the worst division all football. So this
31:30
Speaker 3: man just got fat and rich off being two teams that,
31:33
Speaker 3: yeah they're leaving their division, but they might be really bad.
31:36
Speaker 3: Now they're playing a team that we view as one
31:38
Speaker 3: of the tougher divisions all football, right, I mean, as
31:40
Speaker 3: shitty as the Raiders are, they're what above five hundred,
31:44
Speaker 3: They're at least have five hundred. Sam goes for the
31:46
Speaker 3: Chargers and then the Chiefs, Like this is a really
31:49
Speaker 3: tough division and Denver showed out these last couple of weeks.
31:51
Speaker 3: So I can't pass on how well this Denver defense
31:56
Speaker 3: has been playing, how good they've playing as a team.
31:59
Speaker 3: And Russell will us on what you're about to break down,
32:01
Speaker 3: how he's improved these last couple of weeks.
32:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, Russell Wilson is sort of going unnoticed. The
32:09
Speaker 1: key to Russell Wilson, if you watch, and what Sean
32:13
Speaker 1: Payton has done so brilliantly in season is getting him
32:18
Speaker 1: to make decisions faster and putting him in a position
32:21
Speaker 1: to succeed by getting the ball snapped before there's less
32:25
Speaker 1: than ten seconds on the play clock. And early in
32:28
Speaker 1: the season you would see him get.
32:29
Speaker 2: Into the line.
32:30
Speaker 1: There was a lot of confusion, a lot of mayhem.
32:32
Speaker 1: You saw bad, bad fumbles, bad decision making. On the
32:36
Speaker 1: film room session we did yesterday, we broke down a
32:39
Speaker 1: game clinching fumble that he forced himself by knocking the
32:43
Speaker 1: ball out of his hand with his own leg against
32:45
Speaker 1: the Jets. The next week a pick against the Chiefs
32:48
Speaker 1: when he had less than one hundred yards passing, and
32:51
Speaker 1: then they had ten days off, and since then they
32:53
Speaker 1: won three games in a row, and not against sort
32:56
Speaker 1: of Patsy's right. They beat the Bills, they beat the Chiefs,
32:59
Speaker 1: the Packers obviously not not as challenging. But what Mahomes
33:03
Speaker 1: has done since then seventy two percent completion percentage, six touchdowns,
33:07
Speaker 1: no interceptions, but also just making decisions. And you even
33:10
Speaker 1: saw it in that Bills game. Second and one end
33:13
Speaker 1: of the first quarter. Instead of doddling back and forth,
33:17
Speaker 1: he immediately gets the ball out when his primary reads
33:20
Speaker 1: aren't open, they get a first down. Next play started
33:23
Speaker 1: the second quarter, the lane opens in the middle of
33:26
Speaker 1: the field. Instead of trying to stay back and make
33:29
Speaker 1: the big play, immediately scrambles ten yards for a first down.
33:32
Speaker 1: Like he's just a better quarterback. The guy's got eighteen
33:34
Speaker 1: touchdown passes and four picks. That's second most touchdown passes
33:37
Speaker 1: in the NFL right now and second fewest picks. So like,
33:41
Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, seventh best quarterback under pressure.
33:45
Speaker 1: And he will get a lot of blitz's from the Viking.
33:46
Speaker 2: So we like the Broncos.
33:49
Speaker 3: We just yeah, I'll give you just one more actual
33:51
Speaker 3: stat for Denver defense, because I was talking about how
33:53
Speaker 3: good they've been, but Evan gave us an actual, real
33:55
Speaker 3: stat that people can understand more. Broncos defense is tenth
34:00
Speaker 3: an EPA per play since week six, So you know,
34:03
Speaker 3: that's a huge improvement because through weeks one and five
34:06
Speaker 3: they were thirty second in the league, and so since
34:10
Speaker 3: week six they're tenth. Like, that's not a small sampler,
34:12
Speaker 3: that's multiple weeks, and that's multiple weeks of faith. Like
34:15
Speaker 3: Chatt is talking about, they faced the Chiefs twice in
34:17
Speaker 3: that run. They faced the Bills in that run. So yeah,
34:21
Speaker 3: clearly this defense. Since that's seventy point loss and a
34:25
Speaker 3: bunch of you know, they got rid of a bunch
34:27
Speaker 3: of guys from that defense. Things have changed it for Denver.
34:29
Speaker 3: So trying not to think too much about you're taking
34:33
Speaker 3: a bad Denver team as a favorite. This is not
34:35
Speaker 3: that team. They're a much better team. They should be
34:37
Speaker 3: a favorite in this game.
34:38
Speaker 1: Don't think, just do the one you got to think
34:40
Speaker 1: about Philadelphia, Kansas City. Look, we liked it a two
34:45
Speaker 1: and a half. It got bid up to three. Right
34:47
Speaker 1: after we did all that. We listed all the reasons
34:49
Speaker 1: why we hate it. Mahomes in November December, virtually unbeatable Momes.
34:54
Speaker 3: Well, I just wanted people to know this is why
34:55
Speaker 3: people are going to push back on it.
34:57
Speaker 1: Mahomes is a favorite of lesson three virtually impossib well,
35:00
Speaker 1: they'll cover against. This feels like the Super Bowl bet
35:03
Speaker 1: all over again, right where we were on Philly last
35:06
Speaker 1: year at the same number and ended up getting beat
35:09
Speaker 1: in a bad spot. Philly was the right side in
35:11
Speaker 1: that game, like they played better. There were some bad
35:14
Speaker 1: plays and then they got my homes. So and reft
35:19
Speaker 1: I wrote, this is a foxhole of big balls. We
35:22
Speaker 1: went big balls with Carolina. If we're staying on Philly
35:28
Speaker 1: and I haven't bought out of this bet kind of
35:30
Speaker 1: feels like a foxhole to me.
35:32
Speaker 3: I can't do it because I'm not going to make
35:33
Speaker 3: this one of my five biggest bets of the week.
35:35
Speaker 3: I'm just not going to do it. I'm on the Eagles,
35:38
Speaker 3: I'm taking the three. I'm happy to take it. But
35:40
Speaker 3: you just we talked about like this. My homes spot
35:43
Speaker 3: has not been good to us, and it's not a
35:45
Speaker 3: great spot to fade him even worse. I saw that
35:49
Speaker 3: Kelsey's parents are going to be there and Taylor Swift's
35:51
Speaker 3: parents are going to be there, Chad, how can we
35:53
Speaker 3: go against love? How can we go against love?
35:56
Speaker 1: Nobody loves love more than me.
36:10
Speaker 3: So I don't know what to do with this one.
36:11
Speaker 3: I'm on them, but I don't know if I want
36:13
Speaker 3: to make this our fox. Well I have another game
36:15
Speaker 3: of mind. I just I don't know what to do
36:18
Speaker 3: because I'm seeing a good number. But I hate I
36:22
Speaker 3: hate how the professionals are coming in on the Chiefs
36:25
Speaker 3: and like the guys I've talked to like that I respect.
36:27
Speaker 3: It's like, fuck, this is just so typical, Like am
36:31
Speaker 3: I I just like I just said it. The Eagles
36:34
Speaker 3: just are a much better team right now, and we're
36:37
Speaker 3: getting three. It's crazy because home field basically dead, Like
36:42
Speaker 3: home Field really is basically dead. It's like a point
36:44
Speaker 3: and a half two points depending on the place. So
36:47
Speaker 3: you're telling me on a neutral field the Chiefs will
36:50
Speaker 3: be minus one at this point of the season, and
36:53
Speaker 3: I wouldn't believe it. Like the Eagles have been more
36:56
Speaker 3: complete offensively and defensively than the chief have. Right the Chiefs,
37:00
Speaker 3: their best unit this season has been their defense. But
37:03
Speaker 3: me and Chat talked though they've had injuries to it,
37:05
Speaker 3: that's why we love Denver. Against this Chiefs team a
37:07
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, It's like They're a different team
37:09
Speaker 3: on defense when they have injuries. So I'm trying to
37:14
Speaker 3: get there, brother, but this line is just so fishy, fishy, fishy, fishy.
37:19
Speaker 3: So I I just won't make this one of our
37:22
Speaker 3: five this week. I tell you that much. I just
37:23
Speaker 3: can't do it because I can see it now, me
37:26
Speaker 3: and you will be sitting there. It's fourteen to three
37:29
Speaker 3: mahomes like midway through the second quarter, and we're both
37:32
Speaker 3: just like, of course, like this is this is why
37:35
Speaker 3: this Chiefs team have won multiple Super Bowls and they're
37:38
Speaker 3: just a dynasty. It's just what they do in these spots.
37:41
Speaker 3: So I'm taking the three. I think the Eagles are
37:44
Speaker 3: the better team, but I just don't know if it's
37:46
Speaker 3: gonna be my five biggest bets of the week.
37:48
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Yeah, I mean I don't know that. Like,
37:51
Speaker 2: we've got five games that we like right now.
37:53
Speaker 1: I don't know that it would beat any of those
37:56
Speaker 1: five games too much. The line is too right, Yes,
38:00
Speaker 1: it would be too much tension at the end of
38:02
Speaker 1: the week for this to be the game that we're
38:05
Speaker 1: hinging a potentially you know what is otherwise a two
38:08
Speaker 1: and two week on this game. Let's talk for a
38:10
Speaker 1: minute about Arizona and Houston. Normally I auto bet when
38:15
Speaker 1: you're like, you've been adamant about this game and I
38:19
Speaker 1: have not been able to pull the trigger on Arizona,
38:23
Speaker 1: Like I just can't wrap my head around it. I
38:25
Speaker 1: feel like there's too much credit. Like you said, the
38:30
Speaker 1: game was at five and a half, got down to five,
38:32
Speaker 1: four and a half, four, and now professionals have come
38:34
Speaker 1: back in on Houston. Yeah, I think CJ. Stroud might
38:39
Speaker 1: be an exception to all these rules, at least he
38:43
Speaker 1: has been this season, and so it's hard for me
38:47
Speaker 1: to pull the trigger on Kyler Murray, who I think
38:49
Speaker 1: is inconsistent and has a little bit of shine right now.
38:54
Speaker 3: And CJ at home, which he's performed better as well
38:57
Speaker 3: at home. I totally get it. And that's all gonna see.
39:00
Speaker 3: If you want to make this our foxhole just because
39:02
Speaker 3: you know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
39:04
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
39:07
Speaker 3: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. The bullets are a
39:11
Speaker 3: fly and man, no one, no one wants to take Arizona.
39:13
Speaker 3: I feel like maybe the people you talk to they
39:15
Speaker 3: might like Arizona, but everyone is in on this Houston team.
39:20
Speaker 3: Here we go, Thank you, Evan. Here we go. Kyler
39:23
Speaker 3: Murray ats career dog twenty one and twelve and two.
39:27
Speaker 3: Dude his money as a dog as a favorite nine
39:30
Speaker 3: and fifteen ats. So clearly we want to back Kyler
39:35
Speaker 3: as a dog. This is when you do want to
39:36
Speaker 3: back Kyler. But totally gear where Chad's coming from. Like,
39:40
Speaker 3: this shit ain't fun. Like betting against CJ, the guy
39:44
Speaker 3: we just talked about. He could win MVP this year.
39:47
Speaker 3: That's our real thing, people. I'm not the only crazy
39:49
Speaker 3: person saying or thinking that. It's like, if this guy
39:52
Speaker 3: can get this team who had the number two pick
39:56
Speaker 3: in the last year's draft, that have just been an
39:58
Speaker 3: absolute joke. What three seasons now ever since to hold
40:02
Speaker 3: the Shawn trade debacle happened. Pretty amazing story. But we
40:08
Speaker 3: play numbers here. This feels like it should be three.
40:11
Speaker 3: I'm getting up across a key number of four, four
40:13
Speaker 3: and a half with Arizona. This will be one of
40:17
Speaker 3: my five biggest bets. And yeah, I'm gonna be an
40:20
Speaker 3: absolute sucker betting against CJ here at home, but I
40:24
Speaker 3: gotta do it.
40:25
Speaker 1: If you feel that strongly about it, we can make
40:28
Speaker 1: it the foxhole, but it's not. I can't see it
40:31
Speaker 1: being one of our five. So that's fine, Like, yeah.
40:36
Speaker 3: That's again, it's all give and take, baby, if you
40:38
Speaker 3: have another, if we have five, we're good with. We
40:40
Speaker 3: don't need to get this one in. I am happy
40:41
Speaker 3: not to have to have this one in against CJ.
40:44
Speaker 3: I'm just I just like it because it's just it's
40:46
Speaker 3: the right play, like this is a long term another
40:49
Speaker 3: long term winner, like you play this spot. I just
40:51
Speaker 3: gave you the status Kyler as a dog, Like that's
40:54
Speaker 3: that's when you want to back Kyler. It's when people
40:56
Speaker 3: don't believe him, they're underestimating them. It's not when he's
40:58
Speaker 3: getting all the hype and the smoke possess. So yeah,
41:01
Speaker 3: I still don't think anyone watched that Arizona Atlanta game.
41:04
Speaker 3: Only me. That was That's your classic corner TV game,
41:08
Speaker 3: the Shado always says. So I don't think the public
41:11
Speaker 3: winner stands that Kyler looks like he hasn't missed a beat,
41:15
Speaker 3: And yeah, totally get it though, by the public love CJ.
41:19
Speaker 3: It's like, I can't get over how amazing that win
41:22
Speaker 3: was last week and all of his wins this season,
41:24
Speaker 3: he's just he was incredible. He plays way above what
41:28
Speaker 3: he should be playing as a rookie. We haven't seen
41:30
Speaker 3: anything like Aroonan. I guess we have. Last time we
41:32
Speaker 3: said it was Dak when Dak had this kind of run.
41:34
Speaker 3: But think about how good that Cowboys team was compared
41:37
Speaker 3: to this team here, right, Like Dak was a fourth
41:40
Speaker 3: round pick that fell into a team that was built
41:42
Speaker 3: for Tony Romo, like it had all the pieces already there.
41:45
Speaker 3: This dude fell into a team that had no pieces. Right,
41:48
Speaker 3: He's turning Nico Collins into a household name. He's tarn Yeah,
41:53
Speaker 3: Tank Del What the hell is the other guy named
41:54
Speaker 3: Pharaoh Brown? Like a guy who got cut from the
41:57
Speaker 3: Cowboys is number one in the league for catches yards
42:02
Speaker 3: per catch, right, Like bizarre, bizarre what they're doing in Houston.
42:06
Speaker 3: He's changing everything. So totally get it if you're straight
42:10
Speaker 3: off this number. But it's the smart play people. I
42:13
Speaker 3: gotta beg you to do it. You just got to
42:14
Speaker 3: you gotta take this number.
42:18
Speaker 2: CJ.
42:18
Speaker 1: Strouds started the season two hundred and one to win MVP.
42:21
Speaker 1: Now he's twenty to one.
42:22
Speaker 2: Last rookie, dam last rookie to win MVP Jim Brown
42:26
Speaker 2: nineteen fifty seven.
42:28
Speaker 3: Stott sid.
42:31
Speaker 1: No, I had two more games that I want us
42:35
Speaker 1: to talk about quickly. Okay, Tennessee at Jacksonville. I don't
42:39
Speaker 1: like it still, but it's like the kind of game
42:41
Speaker 1: that we should normally play. No. We said if it
42:43
Speaker 1: got to seven, we were gonna tell about it. It's
42:46
Speaker 1: Mike vrabel, a big dog on the road. This is
42:49
Speaker 1: when he wins. This is when he covers. I can't
42:53
Speaker 1: find any on the field reason to like the Titans here,
42:57
Speaker 1: but strictly with the coach and the spot. Division game,
43:01
Speaker 1: division road team, division road dog, this is when you
43:08
Speaker 1: back the trend. I haven't bet it yet. I don't
43:10
Speaker 1: know that I like it any more than our five currently,
43:14
Speaker 1: but I have to mention it. I have to mention.
43:18
Speaker 3: It, and I might have to make it my Survivor pick,
43:20
Speaker 3: which sucks. Like I've been going through who we have
43:23
Speaker 3: left and like this, this might be the best time
43:25
Speaker 3: to take the Jaguars at home against a rookie quarterback.
43:28
Speaker 3: So I'm with Chad. I'll throw a penny on the seven,
43:33
Speaker 3: but nothing big because I'm gonna need this for Survivor.
43:35
Speaker 3: I don't want to be sweating.
43:38
Speaker 2: Oh god, but.
43:39
Speaker 3: You're so right, Like this is the classic Vrabel.
43:41
Speaker 2: Spot, but this is a Rabel spot.
43:45
Speaker 3: It's also a great It's also a great Jaguar spot. Right,
43:48
Speaker 3: you gave us that stat. Teams that get blown out
43:50
Speaker 3: come back. Yes, they usually bounce back, especially teams that
43:53
Speaker 3: are well coached, like the guy Doug p that was
43:58
Speaker 3: a total train wreck. Right. It was like the same
44:00
Speaker 3: thing when Dallas played the forty nine ers, like it
44:02
Speaker 3: was literally the worst game of the year they had.
44:04
Speaker 3: What happened the next week with Dallas? Right, they get
44:07
Speaker 3: completely blew out of the team, and you expect the same.
44:09
Speaker 3: The Jaguars are the cream of the crop, the leader
44:12
Speaker 3: of this division that we keep talking about them waiting
44:17
Speaker 3: on Trevor Lwrence to take that next step, And yeah,
44:19
Speaker 3: he hasn't. He's had some real stinkers this season, but
44:22
Speaker 3: he's also i think, playing really well in the system.
44:25
Speaker 3: So yeah, if you want to take the seven with
44:29
Speaker 3: me and Chad, we can do it. But I'm telling
44:30
Speaker 3: you this can be one my survivor pick, So it's
44:32
Speaker 3: not gonna it. Probably wanted to be my top fifteen
44:34
Speaker 3: big bets this week.
44:36
Speaker 2: Last game.
44:38
Speaker 1: Seattle at the Rams, so Stafford got helped. Stafford was announced,
44:43
Speaker 1: the line moved from two and a half down to one.
44:47
Speaker 1: I stole some stats from the Ray Bound Stucky Action
44:50
Speaker 1: Network podcast from the six Pack. You can listen to
44:52
Speaker 1: it now or watch the video on YouTube. Rams have
44:56
Speaker 1: had a better strength of schedule adjusted quarterback. Last time
45:01
Speaker 1: they played, Rams out gained them by nearly three hundred
45:04
Speaker 1: yards double them up on first downs.
45:07
Speaker 2: That was without Cooper Cup.
45:09
Speaker 1: Seattle's wins had been fraudulent Giants, Panthers, Cardinals, Washington that
45:14
Speaker 1: they needed a miracle.
45:15
Speaker 3: So maybe Detroit give them some flowers over time.
45:20
Speaker 1: So do we go with, Like, are the Rams a
45:25
Speaker 1: pick that we're not talking enough about that should be
45:28
Speaker 1: in our top five because like we weren't really focused
45:30
Speaker 1: on until late in the week.
45:31
Speaker 2: Sometimes we do that.
45:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is a pros game, Like I talked
45:35
Speaker 3: to a bunch of pros who love this on sharp calls.
45:38
Speaker 3: They love this game. I got no real feel for it,
45:41
Speaker 3: Like I want to take the Rams, but it's Yeah,
45:47
Speaker 3: it's a tough one for me. It really is, because
45:51
Speaker 3: you know this number is gonna flip, right, And Evan
45:54
Speaker 3: gave us that number that when these teams move from
45:56
Speaker 3: a dog to a favorite, it's not it's not great
45:59
Speaker 3: for the Rams. So that's another fear with this RAMS number.
46:02
Speaker 2: But interesting, ah man.
46:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is uh, this is definitely a Pros game.
46:08
Speaker 3: The Pros are on the Rams. I just I have
46:11
Speaker 3: no real feel for this one. I'll be honest, Chad,
46:13
Speaker 3: Like I want to get down the Rams coming into this.
46:16
Speaker 3: I wanted to get on just with Stafford coming back, Like,
46:18
Speaker 3: I agree with everything those guys were talking about, Like,
46:20
Speaker 3: I think the Rams are just as good as Seattle.
46:23
Speaker 3: Like they've just they've had some bad injuries, right, Stafford
46:26
Speaker 3: missing games. That's gonna kill you like that. That's the
46:28
Speaker 3: reason the record is what it is. They're not that record, right,
46:31
Speaker 3: They're much better team than their record perceived. So I'm
46:35
Speaker 3: with the guys and I get what the pros are saying.
46:37
Speaker 3: Maybe this will end up being one of our five
46:39
Speaker 3: comes Sunday. It's just right now sending your Thursday. I
46:41
Speaker 3: just can't get there. I have no money bet on
46:43
Speaker 3: this game either side, so no real fill from this one.
46:46
Speaker 3: But yes, the Pros that they like the Rams in
46:48
Speaker 3: the spot.
46:49
Speaker 1: Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in
46:52
Speaker 1: the United States.
46:54
Speaker 3: Game Time.
46:55
Speaker 2: That's right, it's our.
46:56
Speaker 1: Sponsor, game Time. I love game Time for two reasons.
46:58
Speaker 1: One because they sponsor this show. So number two, I
47:01
Speaker 1: actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got amazing
47:04
Speaker 1: last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including pro
47:06
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47:10
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47:12
Speaker 1: Guess what hockey fans, You can get in to see
47:17
Speaker 1: the New Jersey Devils. Devils for less than one hundred
47:23
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47:29
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47:30
Speaker 1: has some fun this week. Go swait your bets live
47:33
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47:35
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47:44
Speaker 2: All right. Reminder about our contest picks.
47:45
Speaker 1: Simon and I typically enter our picks into the contest
47:48
Speaker 1: website on Thursday after the show.
47:50
Speaker 2: If you want to see those unofficial.
47:52
Speaker 1: Picks we've entered before they lock, go to the contest
47:55
Speaker 1: site favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com search for the phase five.
48:00
Speaker 2: That's us.
48:01
Speaker 1: We typically have these picks visible by Thursday afternoon before
48:04
Speaker 1: we get to our money Line Underdog Round Robin. The
48:08
Speaker 1: week eleven contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards on Monday night.
48:12
Speaker 1: Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward writes a weekly
48:17
Speaker 1: article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link to the article
48:20
Speaker 1: can be found in this episode's description. If you want
48:23
Speaker 1: to leg up on the contest, good luck, all right,
48:26
Speaker 1: signon our Moneyline Underdog Round Robin.
48:33
Speaker 4: Dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.
48:38
Speaker 2: Hello, Carolina Panthers, get that one in there.
48:42
Speaker 3: Gotta get Arizona in after I just hype them up
48:45
Speaker 3: all that time.
48:46
Speaker 2: Here, we do have to get Arizona in there.
48:48
Speaker 3: Let's cheat a little eagle, Yeah, yeah, I get the
48:52
Speaker 3: Eagles in there. Should we do the coward cheat and
48:55
Speaker 3: take Pittsburgh Pittsburgh plus one hundred? Yep, because it is
49:00
Speaker 3: a plus number.
49:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, Carolina and Arizona Philly in Pittsburgh so far.
49:05
Speaker 3: So we got we need one more? Oh god, Rams
49:11
Speaker 3: now minus one four?
49:13
Speaker 2: How about the Bears?
49:16
Speaker 3: All right? I like that because last week, thanks to
49:20
Speaker 3: my guy Chad here, I hit the Cleveland You know
49:25
Speaker 3: that was that was a really nice pay to the
49:28
Speaker 3: Cleveland Denver. I think it made me thirteen or twelve
49:31
Speaker 3: to one, So yeah, yeah, that was really good. Yeah,
49:36
Speaker 3: let's do it. Let's get Chicago in there.
49:38
Speaker 2: All right. You know what else we're gonna do.
49:40
Speaker 1: We're gonna make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza
49:43
Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL, part of your game today, Simon,
49:45
Speaker 1: We're already in mid November this Thanksgiving.
49:48
Speaker 2: Are you most grateful for Little Caesars Pizza?
49:51
Speaker 3: I am Chad.
49:52
Speaker 2: Order online during.
49:53
Speaker 1: Our pizza pizza pre game one hour before NFL games
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Speaker 1: and get ready for some football and fine, choose your
49:58
Speaker 1: favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the topics your crave. Simon,
50:02
Speaker 1: what do you think about this new motto I invented
50:05
Speaker 1: just on the spot. Even if your car is coated
50:08
Speaker 1: and rust, you can always afford crazy crust. Love it.
50:14
Speaker 2: However you order your pizza, you win.
50:16
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
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Speaker 1: our in store pizzaa portal pickup. So grab some friends
50:23
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. It's time
50:26
Speaker 1: for I'm.
50:28
Speaker 3: A Survivor the Survivor Pool pick of the week.
50:40
Speaker 2: Jags.
50:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, gotta do it. I guess like I'm like going
50:44
Speaker 3: through them right now. I could could take the lines,
50:48
Speaker 3: but I really don't want to. And that's the only
50:50
Speaker 3: other real option. Like I've already used Dallas, I've already
50:53
Speaker 3: used the Dolphins, already used the forty nine ers. Yeah,
50:58
Speaker 3: I'm sorry people, this is this is what it' start.
51:00
Speaker 3: It's getting ugly. We gotta do we gotta take the jags.
51:03
Speaker 3: I hate it, but they're the best option I got.
51:06
Speaker 1: Sometimes when we're doing the show, I'm looking at the
51:10
Speaker 1: script that I have in front of me, not at
51:13
Speaker 1: the zoom, so I can't always see you, And so
51:15
Speaker 1: I'll be looking at the script and I will ask
51:20
Speaker 1: you a question and I don't go back to the zoom.
51:22
Speaker 1: And sometimes you're so deep in thought you pause for
51:25
Speaker 1: like an extra two seconds or so. And just now,
51:28
Speaker 1: when you pause so long for the jags, I kind
51:32
Speaker 1: of thought you would just frozen.
51:33
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh no, did we lose.
51:35
Speaker 1: Are dead air?
51:37
Speaker 2: Dead Air? Dead Air? All right?
51:41
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about your biggest bets of the week.
51:44
Speaker 1: Where are you right now on your biggest bets of
51:48
Speaker 1: the week.
51:51
Speaker 3: I feel bad because people got pissed last week because
51:54
Speaker 3: I end up buying out that Bengals position. But this
51:56
Speaker 3: week I will not be buying out people unless both
51:59
Speaker 3: receivers are. We had all of a sudden from Miami.
52:01
Speaker 3: I'm in all Miami. I've been betting Miami, you know,
52:05
Speaker 3: since Sunday night, and now that number is all up
52:07
Speaker 3: to thirteen and a half and I'm gonna still fair
52:09
Speaker 3: a little on there. All right, So our biggest bets Miami, Arizona,
52:15
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Denver, so right now, Yeah, those guys they
52:20
Speaker 3: keep adding up.
52:21
Speaker 2: But of it.
52:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty pretty gross week. But I love these games,
52:26
Speaker 3: I really do.
52:28
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Speaker 1: and even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an
52:44
Speaker 1: eye out for their biggest and best odds with the
52:46
Speaker 1: incredible super Boost. Check out the boosts and see why
52:50
Speaker 1: it's never ordinary at bet three sixty five. Must be
52:53
Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,
52:57
Speaker 1: Virginia or eighteen or older and kenty gambling problem called
53:01
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
53:03
Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right, before we
53:07
Speaker 1: get out of here, let's bring in Action Network Director
53:10
Speaker 1: or RESEARCHFN Abrams, the engine behind the stats and nuggets
53:13
Speaker 1: we mentioned so often on the show and across our
53:16
Speaker 1: entire network. Evan, you're gonna get the last word. And
53:19
Speaker 1: if you don't give me confirmation bias about it and
53:21
Speaker 1: they've heard that's I am going to freaking.
53:23
Speaker 3: Lose the last word with Evan Abrams.
53:28
Speaker 2: We're finished talking.
53:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I stayed a little away this week, but let's
53:31
Speaker 5: get into it. So I mentioned this stat on Tuesday
53:33
Speaker 5: about Jerry Gobb covering eleven straight games against the NFC North.
53:37
Speaker 5: So in the last twenty years, only one other quarterback
53:40
Speaker 5: has covered at least eleven straight versus division opponent. Can
53:43
Speaker 5: you name him? At AFC North, AFC South. He's retired.
53:48
Speaker 5: He recently declared the Civil War is over I don't
53:51
Speaker 5: know if you remember him anybody. No, Andrew Loven Gerard.
53:54
Speaker 5: There you go, and Andrew Andrew Willlock. Okay, So Andrew
53:58
Speaker 5: Luck and Jari gov had the longest streak, so God
54:01
Speaker 5: can break that this weekend.
54:03
Speaker 3: Here's the next one for you.
54:04
Speaker 5: So Chiefs Eagles is a betting matchup twenty eight years
54:07
Speaker 5: in the making. So Eagles and Chiefs are the first
54:09
Speaker 5: matchup of teams being favored in their first nine games
54:13
Speaker 5: of the season since forty nine Ers Cowboys back in
54:16
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety five. No, it wasn't Steve Young and Troy Aikman.
54:20
Speaker 5: It was actually Elvis Gerback and Wade Wilson because Aikman,
54:25
Speaker 5: who started, was hurt in the first quarter. Dallas was
54:27
Speaker 5: minus thirteen and lost outright. So twenty eight years since
54:31
Speaker 5: we've had two teams favored in their first nine games
54:33
Speaker 5: face off against each other. Unfortunately the dog in those
54:37
Speaker 5: games six and twenty three. So not great straight up,
54:40
Speaker 5: not a great stat. But let's talk about one more so.
54:44
Speaker 5: This one actually was a favorite on Twitter last week
54:47
Speaker 5: X whatever you want to call it. But when both
54:49
Speaker 5: teams are on extended rest, which is eight days or more,
54:52
Speaker 5: the under is now one oh one forty seven and
54:55
Speaker 5: one since twenty eighteen, including twenty five and five this
54:59
Speaker 5: season last week. This week, unfortunately it's Chiefs Eagles, so
55:04
Speaker 5: that is the one game that fits, so that that
55:06
Speaker 5: is the under you're looking at there. And a friendly
55:08
Speaker 5: reminder primetime unders that is night games and the international game.
55:13
Speaker 5: So far thirty and seven this season, so see if
55:17
Speaker 5: that continues.
55:19
Speaker 2: Evan didn't do anything to make either of us feel better.
55:22
Speaker 2: That's a goal, all right.
55:24
Speaker 1: Let's recap our Foxhol Arizona plus five one of Simon's
55:28
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week. I'm not even sure I'm
55:31
Speaker 1: in the Foxhol with him, but I will be because
55:34
Speaker 1: he's my guy and I back him one hundred percent.
55:37
Speaker 1: Our big balls Carolina plus ten and a half the
55:40
Speaker 1: exec decision. Remember you got to listen to the show
55:42
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. That was Pittsburgh plus four. That number's gone.
55:45
Speaker 1: We're still gonna like Pittsburgh plus one in the contest,
55:48
Speaker 1: Simon says, with Miami minus twelve also long gone, thirteen
55:51
Speaker 1: and a half will probably still put it in the contest.
55:54
Speaker 1: Money line underdog round Robin Carolina, Arizona, Philly, Pittsburgh, Chicago
56:03
Speaker 1: if we had to lock it in right now.
56:05
Speaker 2: The paths five for now.
56:08
Speaker 1: Denver minus two and a half, Miami minus thirteen and
56:12
Speaker 1: a half, Bears plus seven and a half, Pittsburgh plus one,
56:16
Speaker 1: Carolina plus ten and a half. I think the debates
56:20
Speaker 1: are going to be over the next forty eight hours
56:23
Speaker 1: forty eight to seventy two hours rams in Arizona. Do
56:27
Speaker 1: they end up as we hear more information? Do they
56:30
Speaker 1: end up replacing any of these teams? What do you
56:32
Speaker 1: think of that?
56:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just hoping for Arizona six and a half
56:36
Speaker 3: in contest. That would be amazing. I could see us
56:39
Speaker 3: getting in there. But if it's four and a half
56:41
Speaker 3: five and a half, I don't know. It'd be a
56:43
Speaker 3: lot harder to talk me into it.
56:45
Speaker 1: All right, Before we sign off, reminder that Simon and
56:47
Speaker 1: I will be back with our week eleven recap episode
56:51
Speaker 1: live on the Action Network YouTube page the Sunday and
56:53
Speaker 1: every Sunday seven thirty. Also reminder our Sunday episode on
56:58
Speaker 1: December third will be live and in person in Hoboken,
57:03
Speaker 1: New Jersey. The Shepherd and the Knucklehead December third Live Show.
57:09
Speaker 1: Come join us, Prizes, drinks, hugs from Simon and I
57:14
Speaker 1: so much more. You must rsvp. The link to RSVP
57:21
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57:26
Speaker 1: Wherever you listen to your podcasts, please RSVP and join
57:30
Speaker 1: Simon and I. Doors will open at four o'clock. Sweat
57:32
Speaker 1: the afternoon games with us on Sunday. We'll bet them up.
57:35
Speaker 1: We'll watch the games, and then we're gonna do a podcast.
57:38
Speaker 1: We're gonna review it all. Download us from Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
57:42
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57:47
Speaker 1: till Sunday night at seven thirty. Love You.
57:55
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57:59
Speaker 2: some when you care about has a gambling problem, help
58:02
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58:05
Speaker 2: gambler