Latest / The House Never Wins / The MVP TRAP Nobody’s Talking About | NFL Pre-season Betting | La Casa No Gana Episode #100

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The MVP TRAP Nobody’s Talking About | NFL Pre-season Betting | La Casa No Gana Episode #100 · The House Never Wins

0:00
- Anna, so if you are betting NFL in
0:02
- August the same way you bet in November,
0:05
- you are already
0:07
- behind. The biggest advantage before week one
0:11
- isn't knowing
0:12
- who the best team is.
0:14
- So it's knowing which numbers
0:16
- are wrong, Fabi.
0:18
- Yes. And today, we're breaking down futures
0:21
- division
0:22
- winners season
0:24
- with totals,
0:25
- teams that are about to regress,
0:29
- teams that are about to explode,
0:32
- and a few betting angles that most
0:36
- casual
0:37
- NFL fans don't even know excess foul.
0:42
- And one thing before we start, forget
0:45
- highlight highlights. Forget fantasy football. Today, we're talking
0:50
- about the numbers professional bettors actually
0:54
- care about.
0:56
- So success rate,
0:58
- precious pressure rate, early down passing,
1:02
- explosive play percentage,
1:04
- because those metrics, Fabi, usually predicts the future's
1:08
- performance better
1:09
- than touchdowns
1:11
- alone.
1:13
- Every single year, superbugs
1:15
- make millions
1:17
- because people bet on what they just watched.
1:21
- For example,
1:22
- the Chiefs were amazing this season. The last
1:26
- season, the Eagles can lose.
1:29
- This cutter back is unstoppable.
1:32
- And history says,
1:34
- slow down, people.
1:35
- Slow down. NFL, it's probably the league with
1:39
- the highest year to year
1:42
- variance in professional
1:45
- sports. So almost every season,
1:48
- we see
1:49
- between six and eight
1:52
- playoff teams
1:53
- miss the past season
1:56
- the following
1:57
- year. So That's it. Careful.
2:00
- Exactly, Bobby. One thing professional betters looks for
2:04
- is regression.
2:06
- Not because teams suddenly become bad, but because
2:09
- football has a ridiculous
2:11
- amount of variance. So
2:14
- close games,
2:15
- turnovers,
2:16
- special teams,
2:18
- injuries,
2:19
- one score games especially.
2:21
- If a team went nine to one in
2:24
- one score games, for example,
2:27
- don't expect that two happens again.
2:30
- So
2:31
- historically, that's one of the least
2:33
- respectable
2:35
- stats in football.
2:37
- Yes. And that's why sharbatters
2:41
- don't just ask
2:43
- who won.
2:44
- They ask
2:47
- how did they
2:48
- win. And there's a difference.
2:50
- Were they dominating
2:53
- or were they
2:54
- surviving?
2:55
- There's a massive difference, Pau.
2:59
- Yes, Fabi. So let's talk about
3:01
- analytics
3:02
- because
3:03
- EPA has become
3:05
- one of the strongest
3:07
- predictive metrics in football. So spec points added
3:12
- instead of
3:13
- count counting yards.
3:15
- EPA measures
3:16
- how much every play actually increase your chances
3:20
- of scoring.
3:22
- A seven yard gain on
3:24
- third and sixth.
3:26
- So huge
3:27
- EPA,
3:29
- seven yards on third and 15,
3:32
- almost
3:33
- meaningless.
3:34
- So that's why sharp bettors
3:37
- rely on it.
3:39
- And here's another one,
3:41
- success
3:42
- rate.
3:43
- People remember, for example, 60 yard touchdowns.
3:47
- But Vegas remembers
3:49
- whether you consistently
3:51
- stayed ahead
3:52
- of
3:53
- schedule.
3:54
- A team
3:55
- converting
3:56
- second and five all game long is much
4:01
- scarier
4:02
- that one
4:03
- leaving
4:04
- off two explosive
4:07
- plays.
4:07
- Consistency
4:09
- wins
4:10
- season.
4:11
- Explosiveness wins
4:13
- highlight spot.
4:15
- Exactly, Fabi. And when you combine EPA,
4:18
- success rate, and pressure rate,
4:21
- you usually identify contenders before
4:25
- everybody else does.
4:28
- Yes. Let's start with the AFC.
4:31
- Everyone immediately
4:33
- jumps to Kansas City,
4:36
- Buffalo,
4:37
- Baltimore,
4:38
- the Cincinnati,
4:39
- but I actually think this conference is much
4:44
- more
4:45
- open than people
4:47
- realize.
4:48
- I agree, Fabi, because Kansas City is still
4:52
- Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes is still the best
4:55
- quarterback on Earth,
4:57
- but sportsbook
4:59
- know that.
5:00
- Their futures are always priced at a premium.
5:04
- The question
5:05
- isn't, can they win? No. No. No. No.
5:08
- The question is, is there betting value?
5:12
- So sometimes those are completely different conversations.
5:17
- Yes. Exactly.
5:19
- Professional
5:20
- bettors don't bet winners. Hear me out. They
5:23
- bet probabilities.
5:25
- So
5:26
- if you think a team has,
5:28
- for example, a 15%
5:31
- chance to win,
5:32
- but the market prices them like they only
5:36
- have eight,
5:37
- that's
5:38
- value
5:39
- even if they never cash.
5:43
- So let's start with the team ready to
5:46
- surprise, Fabi, my favorite topic. So my first
5:50
- surprise team
5:52
- is
5:53
- Houston again.
5:55
- And not because they are unknown anymore,
5:58
- but because they are still one of the
6:00
- youngest
6:01
- rosters
6:02
- in football.
6:03
- So John quarterbacks
6:05
- usually improve dramatically
6:08
- between years two and four.
6:10
- So especially when coaching's
6:12
- continuity
6:13
- stays intact.
6:15
- That's huge.
6:18
- Yes. Continuity is underrated.
6:21
- Everyone talks about free agency.
6:24
- Nobody talks about offensive coordinators.
6:28
- Keeping the same terminology,
6:30
- the same protection
6:32
- calls, the same road concepts
6:35
- that work points
6:37
- every
6:38
- Sunday, pal.
6:40
- I'm a grid, Fabi. So that's why I
6:42
- actually learned toward Houston exceeding expectations again if
6:46
- their offensive
6:48
- line stays healthy.
6:50
- That's the biggest variable.
6:53
- Now here's where people
6:56
- get mad.
6:58
- I'm selling hype,
6:59
- not necessarily
7:01
- talent
7:02
- hype. Okay?
7:03
- Every off season, one team becomes the Internet
7:08
- darling. Everybody predicts
7:10
- 12 wins. Everybody loves them. That's exactly when
7:15
- the sportsbooks
7:16
- inflate the number, pal.
7:19
- That's why Favi betting unders on season's wins
7:22
- is psychologically
7:24
- difficult,
7:25
- but historically
7:27
- profitable.
7:28
- So nobody wants to root against
7:31
- excitement.
7:32
- Professional bettors root against unrealistic
7:36
- expectations.
7:38
- Exactly, Pau. Public money usually push favorites
7:42
- higher than they should be.
7:45
- Sharps
7:46
- often wait,
7:48
- let casual betters move the line, then come
7:52
- back
7:53
- on the opposite opposite side.
7:56
- Yes. Now let's talk about
7:59
- the metric most people ignore.
8:02
- Pressure rate,
8:03
- not SACS.
8:05
- Pressure,
8:06
- huge difference.
8:07
- SACS fluctuate
8:09
- and pressure is respectable.
8:12
- So a defense generating pressure without
8:15
- betizing
8:16
- creates problem all seasons long.
8:19
- Why? Because you can drop seven into coverage.
8:23
- You don't have to gamble.
8:27
- And offensively,
8:28
- teams that protect the quarterback
8:31
- consistently,
8:32
- especially on early downs,
8:35
- tend to
8:36
- outperform
8:38
- expectations.
8:39
- Everyone talks about wide receivers.
8:42
- The offensive line usually determines whether those receivers
8:47
- even matter.
8:49
- Yes, Fabi. Exactly.
8:51
- Jordan bet fantasy names.
8:54
- You bet trenches.
8:55
- So that's probably the biggest difference between
8:58
- recreational
8:59
- bettors and professionals
9:01
- bettors.
9:02
- So, Fabi, let's start with the MVP,
9:06
- Josh Allen. He's currently steering around plus 550,
9:11
- which makes sense considering
9:13
- he's one of the market favorites.
9:16
- But that's exactly
9:17
- why I'm passing.
9:19
- At that price, you are paying for perfection.
9:22
- One injury, for example,
9:24
- one slow one slow month, and that ticket,
9:28
- it's probably
9:30
- dead.
9:31
- Exactly, Pau. I rather
9:33
- attack longer prices
9:36
- if I can get someone between plus 1,200
9:40
- and plus
9:42
- 1,800,
9:44
- that realistically
9:45
- has a top five offense
9:48
- that where the value
9:51
- starts.
9:52
- Remember,
9:53
- MVP
9:54
- isn't always about being the best cutter back.
9:58
- It's about narrative. That's later.
10:02
- Yes. Here's a prop I actually love, Fabi.
10:08
- Over 899.5
10:12
- receiving yards,
10:13
- less a 110.
10:16
- Mike Evans
10:17
- is gone. His target share is expected to
10:20
- increase
10:21
- significantly
10:22
- and multiply analysis project him as one of
10:26
- the biggest breakout candidates entering
10:29
- this season.
10:31
- Pau, that's exactly
10:33
- the type of bet I like in July.
10:37
- Nobody's talking about it yet.
10:40
- But week three,
10:41
- that number could be over 1,000
10:46
- yards.
10:47
- Hold on for a second, girls. Tom here.
10:49
- And today, we're breaking down this weekend's UFC
10:51
- fight night from Abu Dhabi. On paper, it
10:54
- may not be the deepest scar of the
10:56
- year, but there are two fights that could
10:58
- have major implications for the future of their
11:01
- divisions.
11:02
- The first one, former light heavyweight champion, Magomed
11:05
- and Kalaev returns in the main event against
11:08
- dangerous
11:09
- no gun artist, Bogdan Guskov, who stepped in
11:13
- in show notice
11:15
- to,
11:16
- replace Khalil Rowntree
11:18
- that just withdrew.
11:19
- And also on this card,
11:21
- we'll
11:22
- also gonna see one of the most highly
11:25
- anticipated UFC debuts
11:28
- of the year.
11:29
- The undefeated,
11:30
- Dagestani prospect,
11:32
- Magomedchenko,
11:34
- Sainukov
11:35
- takes on Poland's
11:37
- undefeated
11:38
- finisher,
11:39
- Damian Cipecki.
11:41
- Let's get into it. So let's start with
11:43
- the main event. If you look at the
11:45
- betting board this week, you probably noticed something
11:48
- interesting.
11:50
- Ankh
11:50
- Alive opened as a massive favorite somewhere around
11:54
- minus 500 to minus 600 range depending on
11:58
- the spot book.
12:00
- Normally, I hate laying numbers like that. In
12:03
- MMA,
12:04
- one punch can change
12:06
- everything.
12:07
- So when I see a favorite north of
12:10
- minus 500, my first question isn't
12:13
- can he win? My question is,
12:16
- is there another way to bet him?
12:19
- That's where I think the value starts.
12:22
- Because
12:23
- stylistically,
12:24
- this fight screams
12:26
- control.
12:27
- Kuzkov is dangerous early, and he has
12:31
- one shot power.
12:32
- But
12:34
- every one of his UFC wins has come
12:37
- because he forces the chaos.
12:39
- But chaos is exactly
12:42
- what Ankhalai
12:43
- refuses to fight in.
12:45
- He's one of the most disciplined strikers in
12:48
- the sport.
12:49
- Very little wasted movement, very few necessary exchanges,
12:53
- and he wins rounds before he wins fights.
12:56
- So that's why I actually prefer looking at
12:59
- Ancla by decision instead of laying
13:02
- minus 550
13:04
- on the money line.
13:06
- This way you're reducing the use while betting
13:08
- on the outcome that fits his style the
13:11
- best. Another prop I'd keep an eye on
13:13
- is that the fight goes over 3.5 rounds.
13:16
- If Gaskov doesn't land something nuclear early, this
13:20
- become
13:21
- a slow technical fight. Ankhailov doesn't need a
13:24
- finish, he just need another win and that's
13:27
- important difference when you're betting props.
13:29
- Now, let's move to a fight that I
13:31
- think could become the best betting opportunity on
13:34
- the card,
13:35
- Magomed
13:37
- Chanko Saitokov.
13:38
- Here's something the bettors should always remember.
13:42
- That market loves undefeated records sometimes too much.
13:47
- So before betting this fight,
13:50
- don't ask who's undefeated. Ask who has actually
13:54
- fought better competition.
13:56
- That's where Chanko
13:58
- starts separating itself
14:00
- because he has been training in arguably
14:03
- the best lightweight room in the planet.
14:05
- He's constantly
14:07
- surrounded by elite wrestlers,
14:10
- elite pressure fighters,
14:11
- elite conditioning.
14:12
- Those things don't show up in topology, but
14:15
- they absolutely
14:16
- show in the cage. I also wouldn't be
14:19
- surprised
14:20
- if we see money
14:22
- continue coming in on Saigonoff,
14:25
- if that's the if that's the case.
14:27
- Just waiting until Saturday might actually give you
14:30
- worse numbers that betting today. So that's something
14:33
- shop bettors pay attention to, not just picking
14:36
- winners,
14:37
- but betting the closing line. Here's what I'm
14:39
- watching before placing my bets. If anchor eye
14:42
- keeps
14:43
- steamed and reaches something crazy like minus 700,
14:47
- I'm staying away from the money line completely.
14:50
- The value will disappear.
14:52
- But if the decision props
14:54
- drift to plus money, I'm interested.
14:57
- If Chango starts around
15:00
- minus 180
15:01
- and closes
15:02
- over
15:03
- minus 250,
15:05
- that tells me
15:07
- respected money probably came in.
15:10
- Again,
15:11
- betting the closing line is almost
15:13
- as important as winning the bet itself. Just
15:16
- remember that.
15:17
- And one more thing. This is in the
15:19
- car to throw 10 leg parles together. There
15:22
- are a couple of heavy favorites,
15:24
- and the public
15:26
- loves putting all of them together in one
15:27
- ticket. That's usually how sportsbooks
15:31
- make their money. Personally,
15:33
- I rather
15:34
- play one strong prop,
15:36
- one straight bet, and maybe
15:39
- one small value
15:41
- underdog.
15:42
- Long term,
15:43
- that's the approach
15:45
- that keeps you profitable.
15:48
- So best bet,
15:50
- by
15:51
- decision,
15:52
- value play,
15:54
- money line,
15:56
- a long shot, fight goes the distance,
15:59
- if plus money is available.
16:02
- And sprinkle
16:03
- Steve Urzik by decision. So that's it for
16:06
- me for today for this UFC event. I'll
16:08
- let you again with the girls. Bye.
16:11
- So let's talk about coach of the year
16:13
- that is another market people misunderstand.
16:17
- It's almost
16:18
- never
16:19
- best coach.
16:21
- It's usually which coach exceeded
16:25
- expectations.
16:25
- So if your team was projected to win
16:29
- eight games and wins 12,
16:31
- that's where
16:33
- voters go. So, Fabi, one thing I always
16:37
- tell people, don't bet 10 overs. Historically,
16:40
- the market is pretty efficient.
16:43
- Instead, find one or two numbers that are
16:46
- simply off.
16:47
- Yes. Because the spore books spend
16:50
- months on making these numbers.
16:53
- You're not smarter
16:55
- than the market. Remember that. You're trying to
16:59
- find the two mistakes out
17:02
- of 32.
17:05
- Yes, Fabi. So Current Futures have their runs
17:09
- as one of the favorites around plus 500
17:12
- to 550
17:14
- with the Bills and Ravens
17:17
- close behind
17:18
- in the plus
17:20
- a thousand to a thousand and a 100
17:23
- range depending
17:24
- on the sportsbook.
17:27
- Yes. That means if I'm betting the Rams,
17:30
- for example, I need to believe
17:33
- their true probability
17:34
- it's higher than what those odds implied.
17:38
- Otherwise,
17:39
- I'm donating
17:41
- money.
17:42
- Yes, Fabi. And, also, I like looking at
17:46
- offensive
17:47
- rookie
17:48
- of the year after press season week one.
17:51
- So quarterbacks usually take all the money,
17:56
- But elite wide receivers often become incredibly
18:00
- value. So the market tends to overreact
18:04
- to quarterback
18:05
- hype.
18:07
- Now let's finish with our favorite future,
18:11
- the best bets.
18:13
- Okay. Mine.
18:16
- Over 899.5
18:21
- receiving
18:22
- yards
18:23
- minus
18:24
- 110.
18:26
- MVP,
18:28
- long shot around
18:30
- plus
18:30
- 1,400
18:33
- or better.
18:35
- Coach of the year
18:37
- on a team
18:38
- projected
18:40
- around 8.5
18:42
- wins, Pau.
18:43
- Now it's my turn. So under or an
18:47
- overhyped
18:48
- 11.5
18:50
- win team.
18:52
- Next, division winner with plus money instead of
18:56
- betting
18:56
- the Super Bowl. And
18:59
- offensive
19:00
- rookie of the year after week
19:03
- won, not before.
19:06
- Yes.