Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Is Quantum Computing To Blame For Bitcoin Crashing?! | EP 1442

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Is Quantum Computing To Blame For Bitcoin Crashing?! | EP 1442 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:02
  Yo. Bitcoin's down 50% since its
• 0:06
  peak in October of 2025. Many people are beginning to
• 0:10
  blame quantum computing, As crazy as that sounds.
• 0:14
  Bitcoin OG Willy Wu has officially sold all of his
• 0:19
  Bitcoin. The question is why?
• 0:22
  Well, he sent out a viral thread yesterday showing that Bitcoin
• 0:26
  has officially lost its 12 year trend against gold.
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  And his explanation? He blames quantum computing for
• 0:34
  this breakdown. Let's do a deep dive into the
• 0:39
  thread itself and let's get to the bottom of it.
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  No pun intended. All right everybody, So what is
• 0:45
  Willy Wu talking about? S 1st off.
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  He starts off the thread with a 12 year trend broken.
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  BTC should be a. Valued a lot higher relative to
• 0:57
  gold. By the way, he's not the only
• 0:59
  one saying this. We also have the one and only
• 1:03
  legendary Lynn Alden saying this as well.
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  We'll play you guys a clip in just a little bit.
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  But he says. It should, it should be, but
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  it's not. The valuation trend broke down
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  once quantum came into awareness.
• 1:17
  Don't read this post if you want to stay high on opium instead of
• 1:21
  seeing things as they are now. What's quite interesting as
• 1:25
  well, ladies and gentlemen, is that around this time Michael
• 1:28
  Saylor, specifically, I believe in his last earnings report
• 1:31
  Opti, he said that he was going to focus some of strategies
• 1:35
  resources into the whole quantum thing.
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  So a lot of a lot of people are looking into the quantum threats
• 1:43
  or the yeah, I mean, you, you, you should call it a threat.
• 1:47
  That's what it is, a quantum threat to Bitcoin as a problem,
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  as a real problem. And potentially it's giving some
• 1:56
  investors cold feet, specifically traditional
• 2:00
  financial investors. Now what I what I will say about
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  this as well is from the research, and again, I'm a media
• 2:05
  guy. I'm not really a, a tech guy to,
• 2:08
  you know, talk, you know, at an expert level about quantum
• 2:11
  computing. But I, I have done a lot of
• 2:14
  research on the topic and from my understanding is that any
• 2:18
  type of quantum related threat is still at least a decade away,
• 2:25
  perhaps even longer than that. So we're 10 years out.
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  Think about how long 10 years is like think about where you were
• 2:31
  in life 10 years ago. Think about where Bitcoin was 10
• 2:34
  years ago. That's not to say it's not
• 2:36
  important to get ahead of it, but I do believe that the
• 2:40
  threats are a little bit overblown.
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  And the reason I'm saying that is because quantum computing
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  threatens all traditional encryption, not just Bitcoin.
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  So your banks, your banking account, your favorite messaging
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  app, anything that is sensitive, that relies on encryption,
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  quantum threatens all of that. It's not just Bitcoin in and of
• 3:07
  itself. So again, you know, obviously
• 3:13
  cryptographers have to get ahead of this as a whole and there is
• 3:17
  already kind of proposed solutions for all of this.
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  So anyways, Willy Woo gets into the thick of it and he has a, a,
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  a chart Bitcoin verse gold, Quantum Bitcoin summit.
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  He's, you know, he's, he's pointing the arrow and then
• 3:34
  first mention of Quantum on core dev mailing list.
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  And he again, he's making the case that this is the reason as
• 3:43
  to why Bitcoin is not appreciating higher than gold.
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  And it's actually broken that trend line that it's held really
• 3:54
  since 2013. That trend, that trend line has
• 3:58
  officially broken down. And I mean, if you compare this
• 4:02
  to what happened last year with Bitcoin and gold, Bitcoin and
• 4:06
  gold had an amazing year where it actually outperformed Bitcoin
• 4:10
  and ended the year with 60% up. Gold ended the year, I mean,
• 4:15
  Bitcoin ended the year with like 8% down and silver did well
• 4:20
  also. But a key question here, ladies
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  and gentlemen, is that the gold does not solve the problem that
• 4:27
  Bitcoin solves. In fact, we've tried this whole
• 4:31
  gold thing already. We've tried it.
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  And the problem with gold is its physical characteristics.
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  You can't really transport gold anywhere around the world for
• 4:42
  pennies on the dollar. That leads to the centralization
• 4:45
  of the custody of gold because it's very heavy.
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  You want heavy security around it.
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  It's not absolutely scarce. So if you compare Bitcoin with
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  gold in terms of characteristics, Bitcoin you
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  know, beats gold in every single sense.
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  However, it seems like the market is not interpreting that.
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  Some people are saying that Bitcoin is just playing catch
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  up. So anyways, but this is I think
• 5:10
  a really good point from Willy Woo, basically pointing out that
• 5:14
  the trend has been broken. He goes on to say likely BTC
• 5:18
  will be patched with quantum resistant signatures.
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  This doesn't fix the issue of 4 million lost coins coming back
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  into circulation. I'd say it's 75% chance that
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  lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork.
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  So the risk adjusted sale 4 million coins needs to be priced
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  in. To put this in perspective,
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  since strategy started accumulating BTC in 2020,
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  setting a trend, only a total of 2.8 million BTC have been
• 5:50
  accumulated by all companies and spot it and spot ETFs. 4 million
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  lost coins equals 8 years of enterprise accumulation.
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  The market has already started pricing in the return of those
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  lost coins ahead of time. This process completes once the
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  Q day risk is off the table. Until then, BTCUSD will price in
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  this risk. QDQ day is 5 to 15 years away.
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  That's a long time training with the cloud over its head.
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  Unfortunately, the next 10 years is when Bitcoin is most needed.
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  It's the end of the long term debt cycle.
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  It's where macro investors and sovereigns run into hard assets
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  like gold to shelter from global debt deleveraging.
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  Hence Gold Moons without BTC. Adam Back describes a path where
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  vulnerable signatures such as Satoshi era, PTPK, and the
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  latest Taproot addresses can be frozen via soft fork.
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  Effectively, this implementation, if chosen, would
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  be the path to freeze lost coins.
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  Here is Adam Back responding to a a tread, you know thing going
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  back and forth. Adam back responds and then
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  insecure signature algorithm is. How do you say that up to you
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  depreciable? I'm not even going to try that.
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  I wasn't even going to get that without your help.
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  Via soft fork. No hard fork required.
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  Bitplates responds with. Isn't quantum computing
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  irrelevant if the public key is never revealed?
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  Never been spent from a Bitcoin address so your coins are safe
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  for maybe 25 plus years until short range attacks are
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  possible. Doesn't mean the market won't
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  price in the risk of Satoshi's coins being hacked or dumped.
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  Early signatures and latest Tapper signatures have their
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  public keys in the open. Adam Back says don't think it's
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  realistic. Insecure signature algorithms,
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  whether due to classical crypto analysis, attacks on discrete
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  log or cryptographically relevant quantum computers,
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  would get deprecated, same as other crypto schemes going back
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  decades in Internet protocols. So it's not only Willy Wu saying
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  this as well. And again, this goes back to
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  20202025. He says, all good, I sold all of
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  mine. And again, this is making the
• 8:19
  announcement that he sold all his Bitcoin.
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  I think Fred Krueger actually asks a very important question
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  to do what, which we'll get to that in just a second.
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  But it's not only Willy Wu, you know, mentioning the quantum
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  stuff, it's also Lynn Alden. Here is Lynn Alden, one of the
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  latest episodes of Bank Lists. And into the other question, I
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  have been, you know, Bitcoin has underperformed my expectations
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  in this particular cycle. You know, I started out with
• 8:49
  conservative expectations, which was the I thought the 2021
• 8:52
  cycle, I thought we'd get to a trillion market cap.
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  We did. Once we got there, I was like,
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  yeah, I could see us hitting 100K this cycle.
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  We did. And we only got to like 69 K.
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  So my, my kind of revised bullish take wasn't quite met.
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  Even my first one was let me go into the bear market.
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  Then I, I basically said I'm not really going to try to make a
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  price target this cycle, but I went pushed.
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  I would say anything under 150K is kind of disappointing and we
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  only got to 126. So I would say it's, it is kind
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  of a second, you know, kind of a lackluster cycle.
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  I think treasury companies took some of the euphoria out of it.
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  So some of the money that might otherwise have gone into say
• 9:29
  just cold storage Bitcoin goes into, you know, leveraged shares
• 9:34
  of these treasury companies that are trading at X times, you
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  know, MNAV, which takes some of the price action out.
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  So I think maybe without those you could have gotten a little
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  higher, but then also they they were also partially fueling the
• 9:45
  buying of it to some degree, especially micro strategy.
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  So yeah, I think the overall this was a, a somewhat
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  disappointing cycle. It doesn't change my long term
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  thesis about it. And that basically a, a
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  decentralized Ledger is still very valuable.
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  It's the only way to do, you know, that we know of to do
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  permissionless payments and portable secure savings.
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  And then the second part of the thesis is, well, that these
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  things have network effects. So you pick one that you view as
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  decentralized secure and is likely to win the basically the
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  liquidity war, the network effect war.
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  Obviously we have, we have disagreements around say Bitcoin
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  versus Ethereum and others. I've been in the, the Bitcoin
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  camp, which is OK. So decentralized Ledger is
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  valuable. That's the largest, most liquid
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  one. It, it's kind of the one that's
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  kind of geared towards simplicity and, and kind of, you
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  know, maximal decentralization. And so the thesis is that would,
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  would continue holding up and also has bullish on stable coins
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  along the way as well, even though they run on largely other
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  rails. And I would say in this cycle,
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  you know, big Bitcoin is still, you know, dominant
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  cryptocurrency. So 17 years in, I think that
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  part of thesis continues to hold up.
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  Well, you know, people have their their views on quantum and
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  other factors that contribute over the next 5-10 fifteen
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  years. But so far, I say that part of
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  thesis is on track and the part that's going slower than
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  expected is just the demand for any decentralized Ledger, which
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  is I still think it's valuable, but I do think the world's kind
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  of maybe a little slower to recognize its use.
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  So back to, you know, some other people's opinions on this as
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  well, right? Whether you guys like it or not,
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  the quantum fear is a big one in the eyes of investors and could
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  be playing a role as to why gold has been outperforming Bitcoin
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  for the last year or so now. Here's some more takes on the
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  quantum related side of things. Here is Tama Bees has a lot of
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  quantum FUD. By the way, the quantum FUD has
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  been around for a long time. Ever since I've been in this
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  industry, you've been hearing about the quantum FUD.
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  So really, I remember since 20/17/2018 you were hearing
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  about the quantum FUD and it's been what, almost a decade later
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  and you're still hearing about the quantum FUD.
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  I think the only difference between that era and time and
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  now is there's a lot more money on the line.
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  There are publicly traded companies, there are sovereign
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  wealth funds. Back then we were just a, we
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  were with bunch of plebs, you know, dollar cost averaging $100
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  a day, right? If you are sovereign wealth fund
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  or if you're a nation state, you obviously don't want to put your
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  cover your your country's wealth into something that could
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  potentially be compromised by quantum computing, which is why
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  I believe it holds this quantum narrative holds a lot more
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  weight now than it did back then when we were just a bunch of D
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  Jens in the trenches of Bitcoin slash crypto Twitter.
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  Any who So it goes on to say what if 4 million lost coins say
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  75% recoverable? Whoever breaks it knows dumping
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  crash crashes price. So they sell OTC to the US
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  government at a discount. 50% price doesn't move or even goes
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  up. Is that a feasibility?
• 13:08
  Wicked, who's been pretty well known in the space, He's been
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  around here a long time. He says it won't be 4 million
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  coins. Most exposed coins will be moved
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  as soon as the threat emerges. And they'll be lucky if they get
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  2 million tone tone vase responds.
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  Also I don't understand why everyone is expecting all these
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  keys to be broken on the same day.
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  Say quantum computing. Did quantum computer did crack 1
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  of Satoshi's old keys? It would probably have taken 5
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  plus years of attacking one wallet for 50 BTC.
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  The worst case scenario is another few years before 50 more
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  coins get cracked. Maybe by 2050 we will be at one
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  wallet per day possibility parentheses.
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  And even that is probably a crazy 10X overestimate of
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  quantum risk. So I personally, my own
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  perception of this based on research is I think that these
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  threats are overblown. Here are Global's takes on this.
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  And he says in approximately 18 months we will discover how
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  quantum computers actually require Bitcoin mining's massive
• 14:17
  hash rate as entropy to entangle atoms, Much like how the carbon
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  emissions FUD ended up with mining as a technique to reduce
• 14:25
  global CO2. This will mean no one will dare
• 14:29
  attack Bitcoin and effectively destroy their QC.
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  The most entertaining outcome is the most likely.
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  I really like that take, but I don't know who knows.
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  Anyways, here is kind of like the Twitter news AG.
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  I think an AI does a summary of this and it says Bitcoin plunges
• 14:47
  to decade low against gold amid quantum fears on chain analyst
• 14:52
  Willie Wu shares a chart showing Bitcoin trading at historic lows
• 14:55
  against gold around 14 to 18 oz per BTC as gold surges on safe
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  haven demand. While Bitcoin lags, fears center
• 15:06
  around, Herbetter said on quantum computers potentially
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  unlocking 4 million dormant BTC from pre 2011 wallets, though
• 15:16
  experts say such machines are years away.
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  Post 2030, voices like Ray Dalio push gold amid global tension
• 15:25
  and U.S. debt woes, while Bitcoin advocates like Michael
• 15:28
  Saylor counter that it offers no true no counterparty safety,
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  highlighting A deepening divide on what counts as the real store
• 15:38
  of value. And I do want to refer to Ray
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  Dalio's thread on this 'cause he recently just dropped it and
• 15:49
  it's actually pretty good article or thread or whatever.
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  It's an article really. And he he makes a claim.
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  It's official. The world order has broken down
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  and it's funny you see sailor here in the comments responding
• 16:03
  basically that hey, if you believe the world older is
• 16:07
  breaking down own the asset with no counterparty Bitcoin of you
• 16:11
  got Simon Dixon in here and this is basically the theory of Ray
• 16:16
  Dalio. The theory of Ray Dalio.
• 16:18
  If you guys have seen his YouTube videos or read his book
• 16:21
  is that empires last in kind of two 250 year cycles and
• 16:27
  basically the last in 250 years. We've seen the rise of the
• 16:32
  United States, which he makes the case is on the decline
• 16:36
  before that the British Empire, before that the Dutch.
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  And he's making the case, Ray Dalio makes the case that it's
• 16:43
  actually China that that is taking the place of the United
• 16:48
  States. And in between these, you know,
• 16:52
  overlapping, you know, empirical cycles, so to speak, there's
• 16:57
  actually tension and actually the global order breaks down.
• 17:01
  And this is kind of where we are in the movie.
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  This is the whole basis of his book.
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  This is whole the whole basis of his theory.
• 17:07
  And this is the explanation as to why gold is going up now from
• 17:12
  a Bitcoiners perspective, going back to Willy Wu's case.
• 17:17
  Listen guys, at the end of the day, if you put ideal ideologies
• 17:23
  aside, I'm a free market maxi. I, I, I truly believe in the
• 17:29
  free market. I think the market is the
• 17:32
  ultimate source of truth. I think you can have opinions,
• 17:36
  you can have ideas, but ultimately the, the market is
• 17:39
  going to get to determine what is the truth, what is valuable
• 17:44
  at at a much higher degree of accuracy than any one person or
• 17:49
  anyone opinion those that's the power of markets.
• 17:53
  That's how I feel about markets. And ultimately the market is
• 17:56
  speaking the the, the market is making its voice heard.
• 18:01
  And this kind of reminds me of the early days of of stable
• 18:07
  coins. The original thesis was that
• 18:10
  Bitcoin was going to be the currency in developing markets.
• 18:14
  Because developing markets had relatively unstable Fiat
• 18:19
  currencies. And because they had relatively
• 18:21
  unstable Fiat currencies, they would need a non sovereign
• 18:25
  decentralized alternative that their local governments couldn't
• 18:28
  shut down. Now here's the thing.
• 18:31
  That theory ended up playing out, but it wasn't Bitcoin.
• 18:35
  That was the currency that is being used the most in
• 18:40
  developing markets. It ended up becoming tethered.
• 18:43
  It ended up becoming stablecoin. So people did want an
• 18:46
  alternative to local currencies, but it wasn't Bitcoin.
• 18:50
  It was actually Tether that took that spot.
• 18:53
  And the reason for that is because Bitcoin was too volatile
• 18:56
  and most people don't have disposable income.
• 18:59
  Bitcoin I think is the best saving things the world has ever
• 19:02
  seen. But if you're living paycheck to
• 19:04
  paycheck and bitcoins volatility purchasing power, most people
• 19:14
  that are living paycheck to paycheck are not interested in
• 19:17
  that. What they're interested in is
• 19:20
  being able to put food on the table.
• 19:21
  I think this is where stablecoins solve that problem,
• 19:25
  that the reason I'm bringing up that example is because that's
• 19:28
  an example of the free market speaking.
• 19:31
  That's an example of the free market getting to decide.
• 19:34
  Listen, like, yeah, your Bitcoin thesis was great.
• 19:37
  It was fine. However, that's not actually
• 19:41
  what the market wanted. The market actually wanted
• 19:44
  something more stable, more stable.
• 19:47
  It actually wanted AUS dollar alternative or U.S. dollar
• 19:51
  equivalent that people can transact with in these
• 19:54
  countries. And the market has shown that.
• 19:58
  Now. The market is showing right now,
• 20:01
  whether people like it or not, that.
• 20:05
  That they value gold for whatever fucking reason, Excuse
• 20:10
  my language, like it for me, for my perspective, I do like
• 20:15
  physical gold, but there's a limitation to physical gold.
• 20:20
  And that that limitation is its fair.
• 20:22
  It is its very physical characteristics.
• 20:25
  Also, if you have like $1,000,000 worth of gold and you
• 20:29
  go try to sell that, go try to sell that.
• 20:33
  You're going to get like 20-30 percent below spot price.
• 20:37
  If you try to sell that all in one go, you can't transport it
• 20:42
  effectively. Let's say you have to flee your
• 20:46
  jurisdiction because of a a government persecution.
• 20:52
  Good luck crossing the border with that gold.
• 20:55
  This is this is where Bitcoin solves the problem.
• 20:58
  This is why Michael Saylor is talking about no, no
• 21:01
  counterparty risk it it does solve that problem.
• 21:04
  Like whether you like it, it that's just the reality of it.
• 21:08
  So you know there is a solution to this, this quantum perceived
• 21:14
  threat. I don't, I don't I, I, I don't
• 21:18
  see quantum computing being an issue for the foreseeable
• 21:23
  future. But I think Willy Woo does have
• 21:27
  a point here in terms of this could actually be something that
• 21:32
  the markets are perceiving as a potential, you know, a potential
• 21:38
  threat to Bitcoin, Not necessarily the Bitcoin protocol
• 21:42
  as a whole, not necessarily the value proposition of Bitcoin.
• 21:47
  But the market is basically saying, look like these 4
• 21:51
  million coins might be dumped on the market it in the next 10
• 21:56
  years or so, 10/15/20 years. That could be a thing.
• 22:01
  And if you're, you know, if you're trading or if you're
• 22:03
  trying to put, you know, value into Bitcoin, you're essentially
• 22:07
  pricing that in. And that's the case that he's
• 22:09
  making. Simultaneously, though, we have
• 22:12
  to be honest and we have to be true about incentives because
• 22:16
  incentives ultimately rule the world.
• 22:19
  I think it was the the, the late Charlie Munger that said a very
• 22:24
  famous quote. He said, if you want to see the
• 22:25
  outcome, show me the incentives. Ultimately, Willy Wu sold all
• 22:32
  his Bitcoin. So what is Willy Wu?
• 22:37
  Incentivize What? What would what would make Willy
• 22:41
  Wu's day if the price of Bitcoin went down?
• 22:44
  Why? Because he could buy more
• 22:45
  Bitcoin. So you know, it, we could just
• 22:50
  be writing a situation where gold outperformed.
• 22:54
  There's, I don't think anyone could have told you in January,
• 22:57
  January of 2025 that gold would have outperformed Bitcoin.
• 23:02
  But you could be making a case that this is an opportunist
• 23:08
  post, right? It's kind of like hindsight
• 23:11
  2020. It's like you're looking back
• 23:13
  and you're like, oh, it was obvious this was this was going
• 23:17
  to happen. And let me craft my post based
• 23:22
  on the current market sentiment, right?
• 23:25
  That could, you could make a very good argument against that.
• 23:28
  I mean, for that, right. My again, my personal take on
• 23:32
  this is I don't think quantum computing is a threat to your
• 23:36
  Bitcoin or to Bitcoin in general for at least a decade.
• 23:40
  I think even more than that, to be honest.
• 23:43
  I think theoretically that it theoretically it could be a
• 23:47
  threat, but I don't think for the foreseeable future.
• 23:52
  But that's not to say that investors are not spooked.
• 23:56
  Simultaneously, me and Opti did get a very interesting text
• 24:01
  message late last night. I think we'll talk about it
• 24:05
  tomorrow. OK, we'll talk about it
• 24:07
  tomorrow. But basically the TLDR is this.
• 24:11
  Some very powerful, influential, politically connected people are
• 24:15
  continuing to buy massive amounts of Bitcoin.
• 24:20
  So if, you know, they perceived quantum computing to be the
• 24:26
  threat that it was, then they wouldn't be doing this.
• 24:30
  It's also not those people that we're not going to talk about
• 24:32
  today, but it's also the country of El Salvador.
• 24:34
  The country of El Salvador continues to buy a Bitcoin a day
• 24:39
  and that hasn't stopped. So yeah, I mean, that's kind of
• 24:44
  the TLDR right now. I think that this is just an
• 24:46
  excuse as to why Bitcoin isn't going up.
• 24:50
  I think this is kind of like a justification.
• 24:52
  I think this is like Monday, Monday morning quarterbacking.
• 24:56
  I think this is just like not diagnosing the problem.
• 24:59
  Like people just kind of confused if I were to and and so
• 25:04
  far I've been right about this. If I were to look at the
• 25:08
  previous cycle, I do agree with Lynn.
• 25:10
  I do agree with a lot of other, you know, notable people in the
• 25:14
  space that it was a disappointing cycle for without
• 25:16
  a shadow of a doubt. I think expectations are running
• 25:19
  high. But I do remember that in the
• 25:22
  beginning of 2025 when we were in the euphoria Phase, I do
• 25:29
  remember when Bitcoin was making all time highs versus gold.
• 25:32
  I do remember telling Opti something and I said, you know,
• 25:39
  what worries me about this year is that everyone is treating
• 25:43
  this as a sure bet that Bitcoin is going to make all time highs
• 25:46
  at the end of the year. And markets don't behave that
• 25:52
  way. Like if everyone thinks that
• 25:55
  Bitcoin is going to make all time highs, that that's not the
• 25:59
  way markets work. Bitcoin isn't going to make all
• 26:01
  time highs, right? Markets do the exact opposite of
• 26:05
  what the consensus believes and thinks.
• 26:08
  So, yeah, I mean, quite, quite interesting theory here on Willy
• 26:12
  Wu. Optia.
• 26:13
  I do want to get your take on all this, man, because the
• 26:16
  quantum computing argument or FUD or whatever threat, dude,
• 26:21
  this has been around since you and I have both got into this
• 26:25
  industry. This is not something old or or
• 26:27
  new, but most importantly, man, like I think that this is just a
• 26:34
  justification or or or or or trying to like a like a coping
• 26:38
  mechanism as to why Bitcoin didn't perform the way that it
• 26:42
  did in the previous year. That that that's, that's what I
• 26:46
  that's what I see in my honest opinion.
• 26:49
  I'd love to hear your thoughts. Yeah.
• 26:51
  No, I, I'm totally on board with what you said.
• 26:53
  I, I personally think that this is cope.
• 26:56
  We've seen the reason we're really talking about it is
• 26:58
  because we are seeing, it's not just Willy Woo.
• 27:00
  We're, we're seeing a lot of people talk about the quantum
• 27:03
  concerns here. And obviously as a Bitcoiner you
• 27:07
  do, it does kind of perk your attention at first you're like,
• 27:09
  oh, wow, you know, maybe I should pay attention to this.
• 27:12
  Is there some advancements in quantum computing that I wasn't
• 27:16
  aware of in the last couple of days?
• 27:17
  Because we do know technology is moving very fast, but it it does
• 27:21
  seem like hope. Now the chart that Willie Wu
• 27:24
  posted, it is somewhat convincing.
• 27:26
  You know, you look at it, it's like, OK, we had a 12 year
• 27:30
  downtrend or rather gold had a 12 year downtrend against
• 27:33
  Bitcoin. And you you know, you pick some,
• 27:36
  you cherry points, some some data points here.
• 27:39
  Yeah, you you know, you go just full screen this chart and and
• 27:42
  you know you, you look at that chart and or just click, click,
• 27:46
  click the picture so they could see it better.
• 27:48
  And yeah, it is, you know, Bitcoin did lose this 12 years
• 27:53
  downtrend, or rather the 12 year downtrend of gold price in
• 27:59
  Bitcoin. It did break out.
• 28:01
  Now it, these data points do make it seem like, oh, wow, you
• 28:05
  know, the first time and also the framing, the first time
• 28:07
  Quantum's been mentioned in the, you know, Bitcoin Core developer
• 28:12
  mailing list. And then we have the Quantum
• 28:14
  Bitcoin Summit. To me, it, it really I think is
• 28:17
  a lot of cope. And and it's like we said, you
• 28:19
  know, if you look at Willy Woo right now, he's been in Bitcoin
• 28:23
  for a long time. He is a Bitcoiner, but he did
• 28:26
  sell his Bitcoin. What was that July of last year?
• 28:31
  And that was before Bitcoin even hit an all time high.
• 28:34
  And when he sold his Bitcoin, what he officially said wasn't
• 28:38
  like I'm concerned about quantum.
• 28:40
  Now he's kind of saying I'm concerned about Quantum and I'm
• 28:43
  so right and vindicated for selling my Bitcoin.
• 28:45
  But we all know he was basically saying, Hey, I think I can make
• 28:48
  better gains if I, if I put my Bitcoin in some kind of, you
• 28:52
  know, either digital asset treasury company or Bitcoin
• 28:55
  startup. So his original reasoning for
• 28:58
  selling his Bitcoin wasn't necessarily quantum FUD.
• 29:01
  Now we're seeing, because the quantum FUD is becoming kind of
• 29:05
  one of the hot button topics right now.
• 29:07
  We are seeing rumors that apparently, you know, some Wall
• 29:10
  Street investors aren't, aren't buying Bitcoin or they're
• 29:13
  selling the Bitcoin because of the quantum FUD.
• 29:15
  I I think this is this is all cope because when you look at
• 29:18
  the people that are really parading this quantum FUD idea,
• 29:22
  most of them have quantum computing investments that in
• 29:26
  their portfolio. So again, you got to look at the
• 29:29
  incentives. Now, the reason we probably are
• 29:31
  talking about this, maybe it is the bottom signal like the chat
• 29:34
  is saying, but there are a lot of people talking about this,
• 29:37
  whether it's on the corporate press.
• 29:38
  I have gotten some text messages from friends about like, what
• 29:41
  about the quantum computing? And I'm like, bro, that's like
• 29:44
  not really a concern. It's not it's obviously a
• 29:47
  concern, but it's not just a Bitcoin concern.
• 29:49
  One, it's not going to happen tomorrow.
• 29:52
  It's not going to happen next year.
• 29:53
  And two, if quantum shooting does get to this level where it
• 29:58
  is actually a fear, we have way bigger problems than people
• 30:01
  cracking Bitcoin wallets. It's like all of the modern
• 30:04
  world is cut. And so you're looking at all the
• 30:06
  FUD and it does make you feel, or rather it does make it seem
• 30:11
  like these are just bottom signals and people coping for
• 30:14
  what is the new reason for the Bitcoin price dropping.
• 30:17
  You know, I'm, I may not totally agree with Nico, but I think we
• 30:20
  know what happened with the price.
• 30:23
  The four year cycle was kind of intact.
• 30:24
  Still, you know, so I think the fact that people are are
• 30:27
  parading this idea out like, oh, look at looking backwards in
• 30:32
  hindsight. It's so easy to say, hey, the
• 30:35
  quantum FUD is the reason for Bitcoin dropping.
• 30:38
  I, I think it's complete cope. I, I don't think this is the
• 30:41
  issue for why Bitcoin fell. Yes, it is starting to come up
• 30:45
  in the conversation, but it's not a new conversation.
• 30:49
  I think what it is is kind of one of those things that we've
• 30:52
  been talking about for a long time.
• 30:54
  It's this eternal September moment where new people are
• 30:57
  coming into the space. It's the I, I just found
• 31:00
  Bitcoin. I'm here to fix it.
• 31:01
  You know, I'm new to Bitcoin. I'm here to fix it.
• 31:03
  And now this is becoming the the cope, the FUD that everyone
• 31:07
  wants to talk about. I don't think this is the reason
• 31:10
  for Bitcoin dropping. I don't think this is even
• 31:12
  really a concern for Bitcoin just generally for itself, or
• 31:15
  rather specifically for itself. It is generally a concern across
• 31:20
  the board for everything. And as we've seen the, you know,
• 31:24
  the Bitcoiners have been or not necessarily as, because they're
• 31:27
  not developers, but Bitcoin developers have been talking
• 31:30
  about quantum computing for a long time before it was really a
• 31:32
  trendy conversation. So this isn't, it's not going to
• 31:35
  be one of these things where Bitcoiners get blindsided
• 31:37
  because of quantum computing. I think, as a lot of people kind
• 31:41
  of mentioned, I think Bitcoiners are going to probably be more
• 31:44
  prepared for this when it is an actual threat.
• 31:47
  And it's, it's something that's coming down the, the, you know,
• 31:50
  the pipeline a few years from now, But there are people now
• 31:53
  now currently making the case that if we don't figure this out
• 31:57
  now, it's over. And I think this is part of what
• 32:01
  Nika said a minute ago. I don't think the quantum FUD is
• 32:04
  the specific reason for Bitcoin to crash, but I do think that
• 32:08
  people parading this FUD in this narrative that, oh, This is why
• 32:12
  Bitcoin crashed. I think it is starting to build
• 32:15
  on, on the sentiment or the negative bearish sentiment on
• 32:18
  Bitcoin. And we're just seeing as as I
• 32:21
  mentioned a couple of days ago, we're seeing all of the bud get
• 32:24
  paraded out right now as Bitcoin is in the 60 K range or you
• 32:29
  know, 60 to 70 K range. And it does make you it make it
• 32:32
  seem like these are really good classic bottom signals.
• 32:36
  When all the FUD gets paraded, that's usually when people are
• 32:41
  taking their victory laps and saying, Oh, Bitcoin's over.
• 32:43
  I told you it was over. Like we just saw the Atlantic
• 32:46
  did a hit piece on Bitcoin. It's called like crypto success
• 32:51
  is its failure or something like that.
• 32:53
  And so you're seeing all the fun happen.
• 32:55
  I don't think this is really the concern that most people think
• 32:58
  it is. I I think Bitcoin fell just
• 33:01
  because of liquidity and macro factors and people thinking of
• 33:04
  the four year cycle. And then on top of that, add the
• 33:07
  different fun narratives. But again, always focus on
• 33:10
  incentives. And if you're on Twitter like we
• 33:12
  are, most of the people that are parading this FUD around have
• 33:18
  basically quantum computing bags.
• 33:20
  They're like, we're going to solve this, we're going to FUD
• 33:23
  it. So it makes it like it's a big
• 33:24
  issue. And hey, guess what?
• 33:26
  My Portfolio is? It's totally aligned with
• 33:29
  quantum computing benefiting Bitcoin or you know, me
• 33:33
  benefiting of quantum computing being solved.
• 33:36
  So I, I don't think this is a concern.
• 33:38
  I, I think it really is bottom signals.
• 33:40
  Like we're seeing a lot of people parade the FUD from every
• 33:43
  corner and that is, that's just kind of stuff you see at the
• 33:47
  bottom of bear market. So hopefully this is a classic
• 33:50
  bear market signal. I mean, dude, look, if you've
• 33:56
  been in the space for a while now, yeah, I noticed that too.
• 34:04
  I think we just got to change the frame.
• 34:06
  If you've been in this, if you, yeah, just change the frame.
• 34:11
  If you've been in this space for long enough, you've heard the
• 34:16
  quantum FUD or the quantum, you know, narrative for you've heard
• 34:23
  it 1000 times. It's, it's not something new to
• 34:26
  you. You, you, you hear it every
• 34:29
  single year. In fact, not only do you hear it
• 34:32
  every single year, you hear it at the bottom of every single
• 34:35
  bear market. This quantum, this quantum FUD
• 34:40
  or this quantum talk has continuously been brought up for
• 34:44
  the last 10 years that I've been in this space.
• 34:48
  It it never fails. It's always there.
• 34:51
  It's always being talked about. So you know, again, it does this
• 34:56
  surprise me at all whatsoever? No, it, it doesn't surprise me.
• 35:01
  It doesn't surprise me that it's it's being brought up.
• 35:04
  This is this is kind of bottom signals.
• 35:06
  This is what I'm, I'm feeling. This is bottom signals is this
• 35:09
  is like this is cope. This is like, Oh my God.
• 35:12
  The reason the reason all of this is happening is because of
• 35:15
  the quantum fears and the quantum FUD.
• 35:18
  And quantum's going to crack all of Satoshi's, you know, private
• 35:21
  keys and all that Bitcoin just going to be sold onto the
• 35:25
  market. And you know, this is not like
• 35:27
  I've, I've heard this so many times before.
• 35:31
  I just think that this cycle is a little bit different and I
• 35:35
  think it's a little bit different because of the players
• 35:38
  who are involved. And I also think that for the
• 35:41
  first time in a long time, really since like 2018, I feel
• 35:47
  uncertainty back in the market again.
• 35:50
  We haven't had this much uncertainty in Bitcoin in a very
• 35:54
  long time. Opti before like people can't as
• 35:59
  time progresses, more and more people are basically losing hope
• 36:08
  that Bitcoin can reach all time highs.
• 36:11
  Like people are basically losing hope that Bitcoin can reach 200
• 36:16
  K 300 K400 K500K. And that uncertainty is what
• 36:23
  creates the perfect conditions for the next move up when it
• 36:29
  inevitably comes because the core thesis behind Bitcoin
• 36:33
  hasn't changed. The characteristics of Bitcoin
• 36:37
  hasn't changed. If you take a look at the hash
• 36:40
  rate, it continues to make all time highs.
• 36:43
  So again, are you a believer or do you have conviction in your
• 36:49
  holdings? If the answer is yes, then hold
• 36:53
  on DCA dollar cost average, take advantage of these of these low
• 36:59
  prices and accumulate your stack and we could go lower.
• 37:03
  Take advantage of the prices going lower if and when they go
• 37:07
  lower, right? But I love the fact that
• 37:11
  uncertainty is back because we had a three-year high of
• 37:15
  complete certainty that Bitcoin was going to go to the moon and
• 37:19
  beyond, and now reality is coming back.
• 37:24
  It's smacking everybody in the face.
• 37:26
  It's saying wake the fuck up, sunshine.
• 37:31
  And I think that's a good thing. And I think that's not a bad
• 37:34
  thing. I think it humbles the F out of
• 37:36
  you as a Bitcoiner. It makes you feel the pain, it
• 37:40
  makes you feel why you're here, and it reminds you why we're
• 37:44
  here. And I think a lot of people have
• 37:46
  forgotten, you know, the reason as to why we're in Bitcoin and
• 37:51
  the reason we are in Bitcoin is again to escape this, this rat
• 37:55
  race to escape the traditional financial system.
• 37:59
  It's to escape, you know, the, the, this Fiat nihilistic
• 38:03
  mindset. This is what Bitcoin is all
• 38:06
  about. It's about individuals
• 38:08
  reclaiming back their financial sovereignty by buy Bitcoin or
• 38:12
  any Bitcoin mining Bitcoin and and taking that Bitcoin into
• 38:14
  self custody. That's why we're here.
• 38:17
  This previous cycle. What concerned me Opti is the
• 38:20
  fact that people forgot the core reason, the core logic as to why
• 38:25
  we became bitcoiners in the 1st place.
• 38:28
  It was this over financialized cycle.
• 38:31
  It was the treasury companies. It was it was, you know, as as
• 38:36
  much of A of a fan as I am of sailor.
• 38:39
  It was strategy, this strategy, that treasury company, this
• 38:43
  treasury company that, that was the main thesis of this cycle.
• 38:47
  It wasn't all coins as it was in 2021.
• 38:50
  This cycle was the cycle of of treasury companies, right?
• 38:54
  And I think a lot of the the potential and Lynn Alden said it
• 38:57
  in her in her bit. I think a lot of the potential
• 39:01
  parabola that would have happened happened normally.
• 39:05
  I think a lot of that cash went into treasury companies and I
• 39:09
  think it was actually Mauricio, the Co founder of Leaden that
• 39:12
  pointed this out to us. We did have a parabola, it just
• 39:16
  didn't happen in spot Bitcoin. But if you look at strategy,
• 39:20
  strategy had a textbook parabola.
• 39:23
  It went from like what, 1015? No, I went from like $1520 a
• 39:29
  share to $500 a share. It, it, it went crazy.
• 39:34
  It went it went bananas. We had a parabola in strategy.
• 39:38
  We just didn't have a parabola in spot Bitcoin.
• 39:42
  And I think that is what has caught a lot of people by
• 39:46
  surprise. But this is what markets do.
• 39:49
  And I think a lot of people have forgotten that, right?
• 39:52
  So again, we're heading into the unknown.
• 39:55
  It's like Christopher Columbus again, you know, the whole point
• 39:58
  of him originally sailing, I saw some SNL skits on this is
• 40:02
  hilarious, like with Bad Bunny and stuff.
• 40:04
  But the whole reason of him like, you know, originally
• 40:07
  sailing was, you know, he wanted to get to China, Like Spain
• 40:12
  thought that they would be able to get to China in a more
• 40:14
  efficient manner. And they ran into the Americas
• 40:17
  in the in the process, right? But there was an age of
• 40:20
  discovery. There is an age of uncertainty.
• 40:23
  And this is where we are in Bitcoin right now is we are in
• 40:26
  uncertain territory. We're in kind of this discovery
• 40:30
  territory. And I think that's a positive
• 40:32
  for Bitcoin. I think it's gonna, it's going
• 40:35
  to create more conviction, it's going to shake your beliefs and
• 40:41
  it's going to ask you why you're here.
• 40:43
  You know, do do you still believe in Bitcoin?
• 40:45
  Do you still believe in the future appeal of Bitcoin?
• 40:48
  Do you, do you still believe in the future performance of
• 40:51
  Bitcoin? And when that gets exhausted,
• 40:54
  when the Taurus leave, when the Taurus, you know, say, listen,
• 40:59
  I've had enough of this. Bitcoin's time to shine is over.
• 41:03
  The Ponzi truly is over. It's done.
• 41:05
  It's, you know, pack it up, go home.
• 41:07
  I'm going to be able to find quote UN quote more alpha in
• 41:11
  different things. Only then is when we'll hit
• 41:15
  bottom and only then is when Bitcoin will start to pick up
• 41:19
  again. And only then is when we'll
• 41:21
  start making all time highs when most people have lost the faith
• 41:26
  because that's usually how the bear markets play out.
• 41:29
  We have just forgotten that because again, we've been riding
• 41:33
  a high for the last three years of Bitcoin's history.
• 41:38
  And we had a generational run. We had an epic run.
• 41:41
  We went from 16,000 to $126,000. That's an incredible return.
• 41:48
  That's an incredible run. It's just guys, it this things
• 41:54
  are changing, right? Things are changing.
• 41:56
  And again, these are a lot of the coping and a lot of the
• 41:59
  narratives that people are are using to justify as to why
• 42:03
  Bitcoin isn't performing the way that it has.
• 42:05
  So you know, 2026 is the year to learn fundamentals, to learn why
• 42:11
  you're here, to learn about Bitcoin, the characteristics of
• 42:13
  Bitcoin. And historically speaking, this
• 42:18
  happens to be one of the best, most opportune, opportune times
• 42:22
  to buy cheap Bitcoin. So take advantage of it.
• 42:26
  Anyways, guys, we're going to be right back in just a bit.
• 42:28
  We're going to have an incredible show, tons of stuff
• 42:31
  to cover. We're going to be right back in
• 42:32
  just a bit. Today's episode is brought to
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  se-ed.com store. All right everybody, we are
• 44:46
  back. I do want to share the Clark
• 44:49
  Moody dashboard. The time of at the time of
• 44:52
  recording the Bitcoin price is $67,750.
• 44:57
  Again almost 50% Drawdown from all time high Sats per dollar
• 45:03
  1476 block height 937,115 Realized monetary inflation .83%
• 45:12
  Market cap 1.35 trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap 4.53%
• 45:19
  Percentage issued 95.19%. In the grand scheme of things,
• 45:24
  we are just getting the party started.
• 45:28
  Alright everybody, let's move on to the next bit.
• 45:32
  I do want to share this video. Let's talk about the Clarity
• 45:36
  Act. So again, you guys know how I
• 45:39
  personally feel about the Clarity Act.
• 45:40
  I've been talking about it. It is a a big deal for the Trump
• 45:45
  administration. We played you guys a clip of
• 45:48
  Scott Besson on CNBC not too long ago talking about the
• 45:51
  importance of passing the Clarity Act.
• 45:54
  I think it was on the Friday show of last week.
• 45:56
  And I told you guys, I said, listen, like he, they, you know,
• 46:02
  Brian Armstrong and Coinbase don't want to pass it be a,
• 46:06
  they, they don't want to support it because the big banks don't
• 46:10
  want the Clarity Act. They, they're essentially
• 46:12
  putting it in the clarity Act that exchanges aren't allowed to
• 46:15
  give rewards for people leaving their deposits on the exchange,
• 46:19
  which again acts like a, as a form of income.
• 46:22
  I, I made the case that it's unfortunate that this is
• 46:25
  happening because it's like here you have the crypto industry
• 46:28
  kind of holding back the Bitcoin industry.
• 46:31
  And I, and I said like, listen, like for better or for worse,
• 46:34
  Coinbase is the largest player in the game.
• 46:37
  And you know, they are the biggest and loudest lobbying
• 46:40
  voice in DC, you know, for better or for worse.
• 46:44
  So, you know, and unfortunately how these laws get signed into,
• 46:48
  you know, how they get put into law is that a lot of these
• 46:51
  things are included in one big giant package.
• 46:55
  And, you know, things can stall because one thing in that giant
• 46:59
  package, you know, it, it gets disagreed upon.
• 47:04
  And that seems to be the case here.
• 47:06
  So, you know, according to Polymarket, again, kind of a lot
• 47:10
  of a lot of money on the line on Polymarket, the markets do
• 47:14
  believe that it will get passed. They're giving it a 63% chance
• 47:18
  at the moment. It's definitely gotten a lot
• 47:21
  higher than where it was in January of 2020, January 22nd,
• 47:26
  where the chance went all the way down to 39%.
• 47:30
  So it seems like it's heading in the right direction.
• 47:33
  Here is the CFTC chair and he's making the case that the market
• 47:39
  structure bill is on the cusp of getting signed into law.
• 47:43
  So I'm going to play you guys the clip and also he will be
• 47:46
  speaking at the Bitcoin conference in Vegas.
• 47:48
  You definitely want to get your your tickets today and again, if
• 47:51
  you use promo code simply you will get a discount to Bitcoin
• 47:54
  2026 in Vegas. So I'm going to anyways, I'm
• 47:56
  going to play you guys this clip, then Opti and I are going
• 47:59
  to talk about it. We're going to be right back in
• 48:00
  just a. Bit thanks to the president's
• 48:02
  leadership, we are on the cusp of getting clarity enacted into
• 48:06
  law, the regulation by enforcement over the Genius Act
• 48:10
  signed into law. And we've really turned a new
• 48:12
  page and, and I would say the United States today is the
• 48:14
  crypto capital of the world, but we need to make sure that it
• 48:18
  stays that way. And, and the this Clarity Act is
• 48:21
  really critical. The president has been clear
• 48:24
  that we need to get something enacted into law because we want
• 48:26
  to future proof our statutory framework for crypto.
• 48:29
  We can't allow for Gary Gensler 2.0 to come in and tear it all
• 48:33
  up. And so this legislation is, is
• 48:35
  critical. It's all hands on deck and we're
• 48:37
  making a push to get it done. There are some little wrinkles
• 48:41
  around the point you mentioned on the yield front, which we we
• 48:44
  thought some of this was settled with the Genius Act, but but
• 48:46
  it's coming back to, to to the bear.
• 48:49
  But we're going to get this thing across the line, and we're
• 48:51
  going to make sure the United States is and remains the crypto
• 48:53
  capital. All right, everybody.
• 48:56
  So again, kind of political grandstanding and, and
• 49:00
  positioning and, and obviously we know the Trump White House
• 49:04
  wants to get it passed, but ultimately what it comes down to
• 49:08
  is, is, is Coinbase going to be OK with the terms?
• 49:13
  I, I think it is very uncompetitive of the big banks
• 49:16
  to basically, you know, instead of competing, you know, with,
• 49:22
  with the new innovators, I think it is very uncompetitive that
• 49:26
  the big banks are, are trying to use the heavy hand of the state
• 49:30
  in order to stifle innovation and competition for the benefit
• 49:34
  of the consumer. So I do agree with Coinbase on
• 49:37
  that front. But as a Bitcoiner, you know,
• 49:41
  excuse my language, what the fuck do I care about any of
• 49:43
  that, right? Like I care about one thing and
• 49:45
  one thing only is if if the clarity Act includes and
• 49:50
  protections for self custody, that's really what I care of as
• 49:53
  a bitcoiner. And then Opti's dream is for
• 49:55
  essentially, you know, no cap gains on Bitcoin, right?
• 49:59
  And that's. That's not just my dream.
• 50:01
  That's all Bitcoiners. Come on, that's.
• 50:02
  Like really like what we fundamentally care about.
• 50:05
  Like we don't really care about staking or defy or, you know,
• 50:08
  interest on, you know, crypto deposits.
• 50:12
  Like sorry guys, you're tuned into the wrong show.
• 50:14
  If that's what you're trying to get, If that's to try to, if
• 50:17
  that's to try to, if that's the type of news you're trying to
• 50:20
  get out of today's show, you're tuned into the wrong show.
• 50:24
  This is simply Bitcoin after all.
• 50:26
  But I I care about the protections for self custody.
• 50:29
  And there is supposed to be an exemption of some sort.
• 50:33
  I don't think that's included in the current bill that
• 50:36
  essentially would exempt a certain amount of Bitcoin so
• 50:40
  that you could actually use Bitcoin as money without any tax
• 50:44
  implications, right? You know, I know Jack Dorsey was
• 50:47
  pushing hard for that. So eventually I would love no
• 50:51
  cap gains at all on Bitcoin. So, but I don't think that's
• 50:56
  included in the bill and I think we're far away from that.
• 50:59
  But anywho, I want to get your take opti 'cause you you.
• 51:03
  You did have some descriptions of the gentleman.
• 51:06
  I'm not saying that and I'll, I'll say a little effeminate.
• 51:10
  A guy's a little too effeminate for me.
• 51:13
  I think I think he's great and I think he's he's a he's a he's a
• 51:17
  vocal supporter of us, you know, within within, you know, within
• 51:23
  government. And I did want to his quote is
• 51:26
  interesting here. We want to future proof our
• 51:28
  strategy framework for crypto. We can't allow for Gary Gensler
• 51:32
  to come on, come in and tear it up.
• 51:35
  We're going to get this across the line.
• 51:37
  The thing is like what across the line?
• 51:39
  And and another thing too is like in this is kind of like
• 51:42
  what, sorry, Coinbase was talking about, Coinbase was
• 51:47
  making the case basically like look like as the bill currently
• 51:52
  stands, this is worse than the status quo, right?
• 51:56
  So it's like, why are we going to pass a bill to pass a bill if
• 51:59
  it's if the bill in itself and the law that gets that's in the
• 52:04
  bill is more, is more disadvantageous to Bitcoiners
• 52:08
  than no bill at all. So, yeah, I mean, we'll, we'll,
• 52:14
  we'll have more coverage on this.
• 52:16
  Ladies and gentlemen, as it, you know, as this develops again,
• 52:20
  Polymarket currently gives it a 62% chance that it passes, a 63%
• 52:28
  chance that it passes. So I would say that there is a
• 52:31
  high likelihood the Trump administration again continues
• 52:35
  to beat the battle drum on on this.
• 52:37
  But they are, they are, you know, playing against the clock
• 52:42
  because there's a lot, there's a extremely high likelihood that
• 52:47
  the Republicans lose the House during the midterms.
• 52:50
  And once they lose the House, the probability of any type of
• 52:54
  pro Bitcoin legislation being passed is extremely low.
• 52:58
  I think the first thing that they'll do when they win back
• 53:01
  the House is impeach Trump. That's like the first thing that
• 53:04
  they'll do when they when they get, when they get back power.
• 53:08
  So I don't think they have any interest in any type of laws or
• 53:11
  legislation that would make the Trump administration look good.
• 53:15
  So anywho, let's move on to the next.
• 53:17
  Wait, wait, I, I, I do want to add a little bit under this and
• 53:20
  I'll do it quickly. I again, I've said this multiple
• 53:23
  times, as much as I love the rhetoric, I'm not as bullish on
• 53:30
  anything positive really being passed.
• 53:32
  I do. I do love the sentiment.
• 53:34
  I think making America the Bitcoin superpower of the world
• 53:37
  is a great idea. Like I'm on board with the ideas
• 53:39
  aspect. It's the execution that is
• 53:42
  really lacking. And when I saw this clip,
• 53:46
  personally, I'm like, this is cope.
• 53:47
  I know I know they they're talking a good game and we have
• 53:52
  seen some back and forth you know, we covered the initial
• 53:55
  kind of debacle over the stable coin yields and then a couple of
• 53:59
  days later Brian Armstrong came out and said, hey, you know,
• 54:02
  we're actually having some meaningful conversation, some
• 54:05
  compromise. Personally, it, it all just
• 54:08
  feels like political rhetoric now.
• 54:10
  One of the kind of interesting things that like Nico pointed
• 54:13
  out, you know, if if as Bitcoiners we're waiting on the
• 54:17
  clarity Act to pass to have some clear rules of the road or
• 54:20
  regulations that are going to be beneficial for the Bitcoin
• 54:22
  industry. It is a bit ironic that it is
• 54:26
  all being stalled on 3% yield over stable coins when we all
• 54:30
  know that the purchasing power of the dollar is going down 10%
• 54:33
  a year. So like, but what, what are what
• 54:35
  are we really talking about here?
• 54:37
  It's like, OK, the supposed good regulation that's going to help
• 54:42
  the industry is being stalled over 3% yield, but in reality,
• 54:46
  we're all losing 10% of purchasing power anyway.
• 54:49
  So even if you get the 3% yield, it's like you're still in the
• 54:52
  hole. Like why?
• 54:53
  Why is this the crux of the conversation?
• 54:56
  And why is it stopping it? Obviously we know it's the big
• 54:58
  banks, they're scared of losing money, but it's still like the
• 55:02
  IT really it's like, come on, come on that and that's probably
• 55:06
  me just being black pilled on the whole Bitcoin and politics
• 55:10
  thing going on. Again, I do think it's a great
• 55:13
  idea. I just it, it's the execution
• 55:16
  that I'm not really excited about.
• 55:19
  I'm not really bullish on anything positive coming out of
• 55:21
  this. But again, I I am one of those
• 55:24
  persons that thinks that most government laws that be that are
• 55:29
  passed are usually less beneficial than than the
• 55:32
  official rhetoric. So that's just like my given.
• 55:35
  That's my starting point. Hence why I'm usually less
• 55:38
  bullish on on stuff than Nico is when it comes out of politics.
• 55:42
  But that that's my bit. All right, everybody, Well, we
• 55:47
  still got a hell of a show lined up for you guys.
• 55:50
  I want, I want Opti as my, as my political quant.
• 55:53
  I I, I want to, I want to have my I don't know if you want
• 55:56
  that. I want to I want to get signed
• 55:57
  up to that group. That group is here.
• 56:01
  The group is in the. Chat All right, everybody, well,
• 56:05
  we're going to be right back in just a little bit and let's
• 56:09
  check out the news. We got a bullish video.
• 56:11
  We're going to end it up with some with some bull sauce.
• 56:13
  Cause has been a little bit a little bit bleak, a little bit
• 56:17
  bleak yeah, this show's bleak, a little bit bleak.
• 56:20
  So we're going to end it up with some some bull sauce.
• 56:22
  We're going to be right back in just a little a little bit.
• 56:28
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
• 56:31
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  key dot world. All right, everybody.
• 1:00:53
  So I told you guys that we were going to end it with some some
• 1:00:57
  some bullish sauce before we drop out today's show.
• 1:01:04
  What are you laughing about? Familia Diaz of the Checkers,
• 1:01:09
  Nico. Has such let his hands yeah
• 1:01:10
  listen, you're. Against.
• 1:01:17
  You're against. Free.
• 1:01:19
  Wait, wait. Remember that, Nico?
• 1:01:20
  Remember that, Nico? That Nico was cool against
• 1:01:22
  Bitcoin? You're against Dude, we lost
• 1:01:24
  them. So today's bullish news, ladies
• 1:01:32
  and gentlemen, is 270 billion two, $170 billion.
• 1:01:37
  Financial advisor Rick Edelman just explain why Bitcoin is
• 1:01:41
  going to half, $1,000,000 per coin.
• 1:01:44
  The average investor doesn't own BTC.
• 1:01:47
  There's $7.5 trillion waiting to buy.
• 1:01:50
  Be prepared. So let's check out the clip.
• 1:01:53
  I believe it's from Altcoin Daily.
• 1:01:54
  Let's check it out. Here we go.
• 1:01:58
  As a caveat, I want to remind everybody that this is not a
• 1:02:02
  straight line. We're not going to go from
• 1:02:04
  70,000 to 500. It's going to be very bumpy
• 1:02:07
  along the way, as the past couple of months have
• 1:02:09
  demonstrated. Nevertheless, I am optimistic
• 1:02:12
  we'll get to 500,000 and here's why.
• 1:02:15
  It's simple arithmetic. The the average investor in the
• 1:02:21
  world does not yet own Bitcoin. I believe that as Bitcoin
• 1:02:27
  continues to mature, as the crypto marketplace continues to
• 1:02:30
  expand, both through government holdings, through sovereign
• 1:02:34
  wealth funds and institutional holdings, endowments, pension
• 1:02:38
  funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, banks, brokerages,
• 1:02:42
  etcetera, we will continue to see greater adoption, greater
• 1:02:47
  inflows into this asset class. If you look at the total value
• 1:02:51
  of all the world's assets, the total value of stocks on a
• 1:02:55
  global basis, all the bonds in the world, all the real estate
• 1:02:59
  in the world, real estate is 3 times bigger than the stock
• 1:03:02
  market. If you look at the value of
• 1:03:04
  gold, look at the value of all the cash in the world, There's
• 1:03:07
  $56 trillion of cash in all the different currencies all around
• 1:03:11
  the world. Yeah, they're all up and it's
• 1:03:14
  about 750 or about, yeah, about $750 trillion in total value of
• 1:03:24
  all of this stuff. If you take the attitude,
• 1:03:27
  Austin, that everybody who owns a diversified portfolio ends up
• 1:03:32
  owning just 1% of their portfolio in Bitcoin, that's
• 1:03:38
  inflows of seven and a half trillion dollars.
• 1:03:42
  That plus the current value of Bitcoin translates to about
• 1:03:46
  $500,000 per coin. It's really that simple.
• 1:03:52
  So I mean, I like simple. Simple's good.
• 1:03:56
  I like Big's number. What do you think about what he
• 1:04:00
  said? Well, I, I, I mean, I tend to
• 1:04:04
  agree. I've been saying for a while,
• 1:04:09
  like, you know, I This is why I don't really believe in the
• 1:04:12
  diminishing returns meme is because look, guys, we all know
• 1:04:17
  this and yes, it's a heuristic. But when you go out and talk to
• 1:04:21
  normal people, or if you do still talk to normal people,
• 1:04:24
  even if you talk to your friends and family, the majority of the
• 1:04:27
  people that we know, again, it's heuristic, it's not perfect, but
• 1:04:31
  the majority of people that we know don't actually hold
• 1:04:33
  Bitcoin. It almost seems rare still for
• 1:04:36
  us to meet people that hold Bitcoin.
• 1:04:38
  Yes, you start to see more people occasionally if you're
• 1:04:41
  wearing like some Bitcoin merge, people will come up to you and
• 1:04:43
  you're like, oh, look, there's more people holding Bitcoin.
• 1:04:46
  We are going mainstream. Yes, the conversation around
• 1:04:49
  Bitcoin has increased. We are in all of the headlines.
• 1:04:53
  But in reality, most people have definitely heard about Bitcoin.
• 1:04:56
  We're starting to see the media, you know, some of the on on the
• 1:04:59
  street conversation. So like everyone is familiar
• 1:05:02
  with the idea of what Bitcoin is now, but it's still very few
• 1:05:07
  people hold Bitcoin. And when you look at total,
• 1:05:11
  total wealth, you know, going a little bigger than what Rick
• 1:05:13
  Edelman said, when you look at total wealth, total capital,
• 1:05:17
  Bitcoin is still at like point, you know, it was .02 and we were
• 1:05:21
  at 2 trillion. Now it's what, .013 or something
• 1:05:24
  like that. It's like there's really not
• 1:05:26
  that much capital in Bitcoin, which is always interesting when
• 1:05:29
  you realize how much attention Bitcoin actually gets.
• 1:05:33
  Bitcoin gets all of the attention for, you know, from
• 1:05:36
  our perspective, for the right reasons and from the people that
• 1:05:39
  don't like Bitcoin for what I would argue the wrong reason is,
• 1:05:42
  is what we always say they're they're totally afraid of
• 1:05:45
  Bitcoin because if most people use Bitcoin, then the financial
• 1:05:49
  world, the traditional financial system that we're familiar with
• 1:05:52
  it, it's going to fundamentally change.
• 1:05:53
  And then of course, those people in power obviously going to lose
• 1:05:56
  power because money is power. And so I totally agree with
• 1:06:01
  this. Like we are seeing the start of
• 1:06:04
  Wall Street, of the institutions of the world start to dip their
• 1:06:07
  toe in Bitcoin. And yes, it hasn't been as good
• 1:06:10
  as we thought it was going to be.
• 1:06:12
  It hasn't even really been that much capital.
• 1:06:15
  And we've seen when they when they actually buy Bitcoin in
• 1:06:19
  bulk, we've seen what it does for the market.
• 1:06:21
  You know, Bitcoin has basically gone sideways, but when there
• 1:06:24
  was a a huge amount of of buying in what was basically a
• 1:06:28
  contraction year, Bitcoin still hit all time high and it really
• 1:06:33
  didn't have that much inflow. It really didn't have that much
• 1:06:35
  liquidity pushing it up to where it is.
• 1:06:37
  Like it really didn't have that much interest.
• 1:06:39
  Like we didn't have the shoeshine boy metaphorically
• 1:06:42
  talking about Bitcoin. You weren't getting the Ubers
• 1:06:44
  and they're, you know, talking about Bitcoin.
• 1:06:46
  I think most people got wrecked in shit coins in 2021 and
• 1:06:49
  they're not back in the Bitcoin markets at all.
• 1:06:53
  And so I, I totally agree that once we see a, you know, even if
• 1:06:58
  it's 1%, like he was doing the math for, if we see 1% of total
• 1:07:03
  capital going to Bitcoin, like we, we really don't realize how
• 1:07:08
  much capital is in the world and how little capital it actually
• 1:07:11
  takes to pump Bitcoin. And yes, we're starting to see
• 1:07:14
  that probably the whole idea of the regulatory clarity is, is
• 1:07:19
  definitely holding back a lot of these big institutional
• 1:07:22
  investors or, or investors with capital.
• 1:07:24
  And maybe they bought and you know, to them it, it's not that
• 1:07:28
  much, but to us, you know, they're buying 10s of millions
• 1:07:30
  of dollars of Bitcoin. But compared to some of these
• 1:07:33
  asset managers total capital, it's like literally a rounding
• 1:07:37
  error. It, it's just like that's just
• 1:07:38
  throw a little bit in there just in case, you know, basically
• 1:07:40
  throw our pennies in there just in case this thing catches on.
• 1:07:44
  But once we start to get a fervor, once we do see the FOMO
• 1:07:48
  come back, once we do see the price of Bitcoin go up again and
• 1:07:52
  people are, you know, caught up in the greed and they want to
• 1:07:55
  buy Bitcoin again, 'cause look, I've said it before, I'll say it
• 1:07:58
  all the time. You guys hate it because, you
• 1:08:00
  know, one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin, but people chase the
• 1:08:03
  price of Bitcoin. When the price goes up, that's
• 1:08:06
  when people get excited. That's when people get greedy,
• 1:08:08
  that's when people come back into Bitcoin.
• 1:08:10
  The price of Bitcoin is the best thing for the adoption of
• 1:08:14
  Bitcoin. Look, don't shoot the messenger.
• 1:08:17
  That's just how it works. When the price goes up, more
• 1:08:20
  people want to invest in it. A lot of bitcoiners have called
• 1:08:23
  it a beblin good that the more expensive it gets, it doesn't
• 1:08:26
  actually push people away from it.
• 1:08:28
  It actually attracts people to it.
• 1:08:30
  And so I, I totally agree with the math of this.
• 1:08:32
  It's like if 1% of total capital.
• 1:08:36
  Well, he used, he didn't use total capital, he used equities
• 1:08:39
  around 750 million, you know, $7 trillion or sorry, 750 trillion,
• 1:08:46
  1% of that $7 trillion gets in the Bitcoin.
• 1:08:48
  It's like that's going to take Bitcoin to the stratosphere and
• 1:08:52
  it's not going to necessarily pull back if people are with
• 1:08:58
  conviction holding Bitcoin. So like I, I think the math, the
• 1:09:02
  math is very simple. It is simple math.
• 1:09:04
  It's just really what we are seeing.
• 1:09:06
  And it really reminds me of what Lynn Alden said in the beginning
• 1:09:09
  of the show, that what we've seen so far is that either one,
• 1:09:14
  people don't care about a sovereign store of wealth or
• 1:09:18
  two, they just don't understand what this idea is.
• 1:09:21
  And This is why this is such a good opportunity for us.
• 1:09:24
  And me and Nico have been talking about this for a while
• 1:09:27
  is like with the institutions coming in a lot of this inflow
• 1:09:30
  into the ETS, it does seem like self custody did kind of get put
• 1:09:35
  into the corner and people, or rather maybe the the more
• 1:09:37
  extreme scarier idea. Yeah, Yeah, exactly.
• 1:09:41
  But the more scarier idea. Colombian Hitman.
• 1:09:45
  Bro the the worst idea here is maybe just most people don't
• 1:09:49
  care about it and that's where it really is.
• 1:09:53
  Like OK, maybe if you take this to the logical conclusion
• 1:09:57
  conclusion, it's not that Bitcoin fails per SE because
• 1:10:01
  it's a bad idea. It fails on apathy that people
• 1:10:04
  are either just so doomed like you so black pilled just don't
• 1:10:08
  care about self sovereignty, don't care about freedom and
• 1:10:11
  sovereignty in general. They're just like, whatever
• 1:10:14
  dude, there's no escaping this, why should I even try?
• 1:10:17
  It's the apathy. It seems like people just don't
• 1:10:19
  care about this thing. They don't care about self
• 1:10:22
  custody. They don't care about hard
• 1:10:23
  capped and scarcity. And maybe it is an education
• 1:10:27
  thing, maybe this is a human nature thing, who knows.
• 1:10:32
  But I would argue that that's what we're seeing right now is
• 1:10:35
  most people just don't care. And that's why we're seeing the
• 1:10:38
  price of Bitcoin go where it is, which is in the dumps.
• 1:10:41
  But I think once the price does come back, I mean, Nikka, what?
• 1:10:44
  It's been four years, five years now since we've seen some price
• 1:10:49
  action. So I don't really blame most
• 1:10:51
  people for not getting into Bitcoin.
• 1:10:53
  I know when I got in the Bitcoin, Bitcoin was rallying.
• 1:10:55
  And then after the fact, as the meme goes, you know, you come
• 1:10:58
  for Bitcoin for the money, but you stay for the revolution.
• 1:11:01
  I didn't know anything about Bitcoin.
• 1:11:03
  I didn't know anything about the sovereignty scarcity aspects of
• 1:11:06
  Bitcoin until after I got into the market.
• 1:11:09
  And I had to really try to understand what this Bitcoin
• 1:11:12
  thing is because it did seem like a phenomenon.
• 1:11:14
  It did seem like this world paradigm changing movement.
• 1:11:19
  And then you're like, oh, now you know, I, I can pivot.
• 1:11:23
  And it's like the, you know, the classic meme of with the gold
• 1:11:25
  chains, like I'm in it for the I'm in it for the tech bro, but
• 1:11:28
  in reality, you're here for the games.
• 1:11:30
  And so until we see the price start running again and we see
• 1:11:35
  people start following into Bitcoin again, you know, we can
• 1:11:39
  cope all we want about, oh, this is the real reason for Bitcoin,
• 1:11:43
  you know, sovereignty, privacy, censorship, resistance, all that
• 1:11:47
  stuff that we love. But as we've seen, the masses
• 1:11:52
  don't care about that. Or maybe they're just not
• 1:11:55
  educated. Now, maybe we've all turned our
• 1:11:56
  brains off. Maybe not Bitcoiners, but the
• 1:11:58
  majority of people have turned their brains off.
• 1:12:00
  And so, like, I, I, I agree with the sentiment that, yeah, once a
• 1:12:05
  small portion of global capital comes into Bitcoin, the math is
• 1:12:09
  simple. And Bitcoins going up.
• 1:12:11
  The flip side of that coin is like, do people care?
• 1:12:15
  Is it human nature for us to not really care about this stuff?
• 1:12:19
  Maybe it is too complicated for most people.
• 1:12:21
  Maybe we are overestimating people's intelligences here.
• 1:12:24
  Maybe we are the smart ones in the room, which is really
• 1:12:27
  probably the biggest black pill out of everything.
• 1:12:29
  If we're the smart ones here, dude, we're cooked like it's
• 1:12:33
  over for, for humanity forever. So I, I still have some hope
• 1:12:38
  that I think people will wake up to this because we, you know,
• 1:12:42
  maybe this is our incentive. Maybe this is my coat because
• 1:12:45
  this is our business that we, we're here to try to get more
• 1:12:48
  people into Bitcoin. But it, it is one of those
• 1:12:52
  things where like, yeah, the math is simple.
• 1:12:54
  A little bit of capital from global markets getting into
• 1:12:56
  Bitcoin, at least in a percentage term, will drive
• 1:12:59
  Bitcoin to crazy astronomical numbers.
• 1:13:02
  But we've been doing this for so long and it hasn't happened yet.
• 1:13:04
  And that makes you feel like, well, it ever happened.
• 1:13:07
  So maybe it is just bear market things.
• 1:13:10
  Anyway, it's bullish. Bullish in general. 100% bear
• 1:13:14
  market things and but enjoy it guys.
• 1:13:18
  Enjoy these moments because this is when the tourists leave.
• 1:13:22
  These are the most opportune moments for you to buy.
• 1:13:25
  Like look, I'll put it to you this way.
• 1:13:28
  Have we reached full capitulation yet?
• 1:13:30
  I don't think so, but these moments is the equipment of like
• 1:13:36
  buying Bitcoin at 2022 K AT30K in the previous cycle.
• 1:13:43
  It's the same vibe, same feeling.
• 1:13:45
  People are exhausted, people are tired.
• 1:13:49
  Last cycle was like, Oh my God, Bitcoin didn't hit 100,000, it
• 1:13:52
  only hit 69,000. And that same feeling comes up
• 1:13:59
  and it's when people aren't paying attention.
• 1:14:01
  It's when people are doubting Bitcoin.
• 1:14:04
  It's when people are saying, Oh my God, it's the FUD.
• 1:14:07
  Oh my God, it hasn't outperformed like gold has.
• 1:14:10
  It hasn't performed like, you know, all these other assets.
• 1:14:13
  It hasn't performed like my expectations.
• 1:14:16
  It's these precise moments where people leave, the tourists
• 1:14:21
  leave, people don't see opportunity in Bitcoin again.
• 1:14:25
  I mean, you, you heard it from from Willie Wu in the in the
• 1:14:28
  very beginning of of the show. I can find alpha somewhere else,
• 1:14:33
  right? These are the moments when
• 1:14:35
  everyone thinks Bitcoin is out for the count, when everyone
• 1:14:39
  thinks that it's it's over for Bitcoin, the best gains are
• 1:14:43
  behind it. Those are the times historically
• 1:14:46
  when it's the best time to dollar cost average.
• 1:14:49
  Because when it rips, it rips from this, from this base.
• 1:14:53
  You don't want to, you don't want to pile into Bitcoin again
• 1:14:57
  2-3 years from now when the when the when the price is at two
• 1:15:00
  $300,000 per coin, right? Because then when it corrects
• 1:15:04
  again, it's going to go back to 100 1000.
• 1:15:05
  You'd be like, Oh my God, about the top you have to buy in these
• 1:15:09
  in, in these exact moments. These are the most opportune
• 1:15:12
  moments to get into Bitcoin in my opinion.
• 1:15:14
  And, and what do I know? I've just, you know, I've been
• 1:15:16
  doing this for, you know, just a little bit.
• 1:15:19
  Anyways, I do want to give a shout out to, of course, one of
• 1:15:22
  the sponsors of the show Bitcoin 2026.
• 1:15:27
  It's going to be in Las Vegas, NV.
• 1:15:30
  Some part of the simply Bitcoin crew is going to be there.
• 1:15:32
  You definitely don't want to miss it.
• 1:15:34
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  again, promo code simply simply, you get 10% off your tickets to
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• 1:15:52
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• 1:15:56
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• 1:15:59
  Go to Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas, NV at the Venetian Hotel.
• 1:16:05
  Use promo code simply to get 10% off your tickets and of course,
• 1:16:09
  the simply Bitcoin crew will be there.
• 1:16:12
  Again, go to Bitcoin 2026, scan the QR code on your screen or
• 1:16:17
  check the link in the video description and we'll see you
• 1:16:19
  guys at the Las Vegas conference.
• 1:16:23
  All right, everybody, I do want to thank everybody for tuning
• 1:16:25
  in. If you guys enjoyed the show,
• 1:16:27
  you know what to do Smash the like button consider subscribing
• 1:16:30
  to simply Bitcoin live help us get through the bear market.
• 1:16:33
  It is going to be, it is, it is going to be a little bit brutal.
• 1:16:36
  Yeah, someone said. We we're probably going to get,
• 1:16:38
  we're probably going to need new jobs soon.
• 1:16:41
  Let's see. Honestly, it might be true.
• 1:16:43
  Let's see help us get through the bear market and again, if
• 1:16:47
  you guys enjoyed the show, you know to do smash the like
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  button, consider subscribing and again, we'll be back tomorrow
• 1:16:52
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• 1:16:55
  Until then, take care everybody. Today's episode was brought to
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  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:17:02
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