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In the Middle East is anyone – friend or foe – taking Donald Trump seriously? · The Morning Edition

• 0:02
  S1: Donald Trump has suffered a cascade of humiliations at the
• 0:06
  S1: hands of Iran and Iranian allies over the last two weeks.
• 0:10
  S1: But humiliation is the least of Trump's problems. Now. I'm
• 0:14
  S1: Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening to The Morning Edition
• 0:17
  S1: from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international
• 0:21
  S1: and political editor Peter Hartcher on strikes from Houthi rebels
• 0:25
  S1: over the weekend that confirm a new front to this
• 0:28
  S1: war and the significance over Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan,
• 0:33
  S1: creating a new pact known as Islamic NATO. It's August
• 0:37
  S1: the 13th. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:40
  S2: Hello, Samantha.
• 0:41
  S1: Okay, Peter, we are now nearly a year and a
• 0:44
  S1: half into this war in Iran. Of course. So how
• 0:46
  S1: emboldened is Tehran at this point, because you've written that
• 0:49
  S1: the regime has been flexing its strength in a couple
• 0:52
  S1: of ways. So maybe just begin by telling us about
• 0:54
  S1: the statement that Tehran issued over the weekend, which seems
• 0:58
  S1: to maybe have been designed in particular to humiliate Donald Trump.
• 1:01
  S2: Well, I think Iran is humiliating Donald Trump as no
• 1:06
  S2: less a person than the chancellor of Germany himself said
• 1:09
  S2: some months ago. And it's I mean, the Iranians are
• 1:12
  S2: enjoying it. They are enjoying the schadenfreude of watching America
• 1:17
  S2: and Trump in particular, suffer. This is the country that
• 1:20
  S2: they've called since the beginning of the Iranian Islamic revolution,
• 1:24
  S2: the great Satan. And they are watching Trump twisting in
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  S2: the breeze. They're enjoying the torment. And two days after
• 1:33
  S2: he said, I don't think the Iranians can hold out
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  S2: very much longer, they delivered a new set of demands,
• 1:40
  S2: which include an entirely new stipulation demand on Trump that
• 1:46
  S2: the US pays war reparations to Iran for this current war,
• 1:50
  S2: but also for the attack last year as well. As,
• 1:53
  S2: you know, five other demands remove the the military blockade,
• 1:58
  S2: remove all US forces from the region, unfreeze all our
• 2:02
  S2: billions in assets, do this, do that. So rather than
• 2:06
  S2: giving up, they actually increase the pressure, increase their own
• 2:09
  S2: degree of recalcitrance. And just like watching Trump squirm.
• 2:15
  S3: I'm involved in the negotiation. I think we're doing fine.
• 2:18
  S4: We're trying to maximize the amount of oil and gas
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  S4: that are coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.
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  S5: Hours after the vice president said that Saturday, Iran released
• 2:25
  S5: a list of demands for the U.S. before the strait
• 2:28
  S5: can open.
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  S6: It shows that they believe they have the upper hand,
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  S6: they believe they are winning, and they are emboldened.
• 2:34
  S7: And the Strait of Hormuz is no longer merely a waterway.
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  S7: For us. It is a capability and a source of power.
• 2:41
  S2: They're obviously not afraid of him. They're enjoying the whole process.
• 2:45
  S2: They have certainly emerged in a stronger position in the region.
• 2:50
  S2: Of course, it's at the expense of their own citizens
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  S2: who are suffering all sorts of shortages and economic deprivations,
• 2:56
  S2: but the regime is beyond, well, beyond caring about its population,
• 3:00
  S2: and the regime is increasingly overtaken and dominated by the
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  S2: Revolutionary Guard Corps. So demonstrating supremacy over the US, ideological, political,
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  S2: military and personality is all important to them. And they're
• 3:16
  S2: loving it.
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  S1: And I think this theme, perhaps you might call it,
• 3:19
  S1: of Trump being humiliated by Iran. It's sort of been
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  S1: running strong, I feel like perhaps in the last week
• 3:24
  S1: or so, because just last week, the New York Times
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  S1: reported that Iranian backed hackers had infiltrated the municipal water
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  S1: systems in a dozen states. This was something like 100 municipalities.
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  S1: And it sounds like this illuminates Iran's ability to potentially
• 3:37
  S1: contaminate Americans drinking water, even because I believe, among other
• 3:41
  S1: access the hackers got was to disable alarms that would
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  S1: alert a municipality that its drinking water had been contaminated.
• 3:48
  S1: It's quite serious. So I guess from your perspective, how
• 3:50
  S1: bad is this? I mean, does this give Iran further
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  S1: leverage over the US in this war that it's now demonstrated? Okay, well,
• 3:56
  S1: we can hit you. We can hit your citizens on
• 3:59
  S1: an every day. You know necessity.
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  S2: Mhm. Well, the Iranians have been specializing in asymmetric war
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  S2: from the beginning. Of course, famously, they thought they needed
• 4:09
  S2: a nuclear weapon to assert power and resistance. But what
• 4:15
  S2: they've discovered is that they don't need a nuclear weapon.
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  S2: They're using other forms of asymmetrical power. So first, the
• 4:21
  S2: control over the Strait of Hormuz is an economic power,
• 4:25
  S2: which also has the virtue from their point of view,
• 4:28
  S2: of forcing up inflation in the US and the rest
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  S2: of the world. Thank you very much. Then you've got
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  S2: the other technique they've used so-called, uh, horizontal stepping up
• 4:39
  S2: of the war, which simply translates as Iranian attacks on
• 4:43
  S2: US Gulf allies attacking the Saudis and the Yemenis, uh,
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  S2: the Bahrainis, the UAE, inflicting pain on US allies, which again,
• 4:53
  S2: is a way of harming the US, but not directly.
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  S2: It is asymmetric warfare. They don't need a nuclear weapon.
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  S2: They don't need missiles to fly into Washington.
• 5:02
  S1: And that is humiliating for Trump, isn't it?
• 5:03
  S2: Because it's humiliating.
• 5:04
  S1: Yeah. Those regions, those they would have seen the American
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  S1: bases as some sort of protection in the past. Right? Like, okay.
• 5:10
  S2: That's exactly.
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  S1: Right. And actually, it's a liability.
• 5:12
  S2: That's well, that's exactly what's emerged in this war. Yeah.
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  S2: It's it's it's been a shock to the region, but
• 5:19
  S2: also to the world. Since 1951, the US has formally
• 5:23
  S2: guaranteed the security of the Saudis because they wanted to
• 5:27
  S2: lock down the oil supply from Saudi Arabia to the US,
• 5:30
  S2: of course, and then gradually increase the security umbrella across
• 5:35
  S2: the region. Other Gulf allies built the US built military bases,
• 5:39
  S2: facilities across the region. And what's now emerged is that
• 5:42
  S2: the US security guarantee was not able to protect them completely.
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  S2: The US and its Gulf allies did shoot down thousands
• 5:49
  S2: of Iranian drones and missiles, but hundreds still got through.
• 5:52
  S2: The US is running out of Patriot interceptor missiles. The
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  S2: Iranians have been having greater success penetrating. And it makes
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  S2: the US look like an ineffective protector. The Saudis have
• 6:03
  S2: taken the insurance policy of signing a new treaty just
• 6:06
  S2: last week would have been unthinkable a year ago. But
• 6:09
  S2: the Saudis have now signed a new security treaty with
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  S2: Pakistan and Turkey, which is a NATO ally. This is
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  S2: quite remarkable. They're hedging their bets against a US security
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  S2: guarantee they view as increasingly unreliable. And then a third
• 6:27
  S2: asymmetric warfare vector that you've just mentioned. Yeah. Cyber security,
• 6:32
  S2: cyber attacks on the US. The Iranians have been hacking
• 6:35
  S2: away for years and years with some success. The the
• 6:38
  S2: water system attacks are just a culmination or a continuation
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  S2: of of that. And there's no reason they should stop now.
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  S2: They're in open warfare with the US. They will do
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  S2: whatever damage they can. Although the US has known about
• 6:51
  S2: this for years. In fact, that same New York Times
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  S2: piece you mentioned talked about how there was an attempt
• 6:56
  S2: to to regulate sensibly, regulate water utilities, to protect more
• 7:01
  S2: closely against this sort of activity and hacking by Iran.
• 7:05
  S2: But Republican controlled states sued the Environmental Protection Agency in
• 7:10
  S2: the US to force them to abandon that attempt to
• 7:13
  S2: protect themselves. And so they've, you know, left themselves wide
• 7:16
  S2: open yet again.
• 7:18
  S1: It's just shambolic. I mean.
• 7:19
  S2: It is I mean look, the US is famously is
• 7:22
  S2: famous for its free market and deregulatory impulses and instincts.
• 7:27
  S2: And it's got them a lot of benefits for what
• 7:29
  S2: they're able to generate in terms of innovation, what Silicon
• 7:32
  S2: Valley is producing, even as we sit here with collecting
• 7:36
  S2: revenues from artificial intelligence that the rest of the world
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  S2: is using, but it's also got them in a lot
• 7:40
  S2: of trouble. And the global financial crisis that started on
• 7:43
  S2: Wall Street was a direct consequence of a very specific
• 7:47
  S2: set of deregulatory steps that the Clinton administration, encouraged by
• 7:52
  S2: Alan Greenspan, had taken that then rebounded on them fiercely.
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  S2: So the US has trouble with sensible regulation. And this
• 8:00
  S2: is another example. Look. And just an interesting historical footnote here.
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  S1: Yeah please.
• 8:05
  S2: So it was the US, DARPA, the Defense Advanced research
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  S2: projects arm that invented the internet. And when they were
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  S2: designing it in the 1960s, there was a critical moment
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  S2: where DARPA had to decide whether to make it a closed, secure,
• 8:21
  S2: protected system, the internet, what was later to become known
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  S2: as the internet, or to leave it open and take
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  S2: a risk. And it was a critical conversation between just
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  S2: two people, the boss and the technician. And the technician said, well,
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  S2: we should leave it open because it'll be faster and
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  S2: more efficient. And the boss said, yeah, to hell with it.
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  S2: He said, it'll take this as a direct quote. He said,
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  S2: it'll take the Russians 30 years to catch up. And
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  S2: it did. And that was 20 years ago.
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  S1: Yes.
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  S2: The Russians have caught up. Of course, the Chinese dominate
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  S2: the web and can control. Have walled off their own
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  S2: while exploiting Americas. And now the Iranians and its. America
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  S2: is the biggest target in the world for cyber attack
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  S2: and for any attempt at damage. US is the target.
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  S2: And yet, as we've just discussed, is having trouble defending
• 9:11
  S2: itself sufficiently.
• 9:14
  S1: After the break.
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  S2: Yes, Trump needs Netanyahu to back off in Lebanon.
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  S1: And then you mentioned, of course, Saudi Arabia and how
• 9:27
  S1: it's hedging its bets and allying with its own sort
• 9:30
  S1: of NATO, because America has proven to be as a
• 9:33
  S1: result of this war so unreliable and a liability. And
• 9:36
  S1: this brings me to my next question, because I wanted
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  S1: to ask you about another potential widening of this war, because,
• 9:42
  S1: as you wrote, and many of us will know, the
• 9:44
  S1: Houthis in Yemen, who are an Iranian ally, they managed
• 9:47
  S1: to strike a Saudi Arabian oil refinery. So does that
• 9:51
  S1: further embolden the Iranians. Does that perhaps even threaten to
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  S1: become a new front for the war?
• 9:57
  S2: Yes it is. It already is. The Houthis have declared
• 10:00
  S2: the ambition to prevent Saudi oil leaving through the Red sea,
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  S2: and they've now struck Saudi oil refineries twice in two weeks.
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  S2: They haven't crippled them. But this is early days. The
• 10:15
  S2: Houthis have got time. The Iranians are encouraging them. And
• 10:19
  S2: the implication of this for the world and for for us,
• 10:24
  S2: for everybody, is that since the Strait of Hormuz has
• 10:27
  S2: been closed effectively to all but shipments to China of oil,
• 10:32
  S2: courtesy of the Iranian alliance with China, Saudis have diverted
• 10:38
  S2: most of their oil exports from the eastern side of
• 10:41
  S2: their peninsula through the Strait of Hormuz to the western side,
• 10:45
  S2: through the Red sea and the Bab el Mandeb Strait
• 10:49
  S2: into the Gulf of Aden, as their alternative export route. Well,
• 10:53
  S2: if the Houthis are successful, they will shut that off,
• 10:55
  S2: or at least impair it. And the Saudis are pumping
• 10:58
  S2: or exporting something approaching 5 million barrels of oil a
• 11:01
  S2: day through that Red sea outlet. So if the Houthis
• 11:04
  S2: can succeed in shutting that or partly impeding it, that
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  S2: will mean the oil price scare, the supply crisis will
• 11:11
  S2: flare anew, and we'll see more price spikes. It hasn't
• 11:15
  S2: happened yet, but the Houthis have declared that they will.
• 11:18
  S2: It's another source of pressure on Trump. The Iranians are
• 11:21
  S2: pretty happy with it. But look, there's a theme emerging here, Samantha.
• 11:27
  S2: The the Iranians aren't taking Trump very seriously. The Saudis
• 11:31
  S2: aren't able to trust him. And other Gulf allies have
• 11:34
  S2: obviously realized they can't take Trump and his protection guarantees seriously.
• 11:39
  S2: The Houthis aren't scared of him. And then we can
• 11:42
  S2: also talk about Israel if you want. But the Israelis Netanyahu,
• 11:46
  S2: having talked Trump to join him in starting this war,
• 11:50
  S2: is now defying his wishes, his requests, his instructions in
• 11:55
  S2: the Middle East. Is anybody taking Donald Trump seriously, friend
• 11:58
  S2: or foe?
• 12:00
  S1: I mean, quite to the contrary, but let's wrap up
• 12:02
  S1: on Benjamin Netanyahu and how he, like you said, openly
• 12:05
  S1: defied Trump just over the weekend. Yeah. Tell us about this.
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  S1: Because he really contradicted him in in about as plain
• 12:13
  S1: a way as you could.
• 12:14
  S2: Well, Trump, his so-called Board of peace that he constructed
• 12:17
  S2: produced a 15 point peace plan for Gaza, which he
• 12:21
  S2: announced and said the Israelis were, quote, very happy with, unquote.
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  S2: And almost immediately, Netanyahu, in holding a publicized cabinet meeting, said,
• 12:31
  S2: we reject the 15 point peace plan flatly. Our military
• 12:35
  S2: will not disengage in Gaza until Hamas has fully disarmed,
• 12:41
  S2: laid down all its weapons, which of course, Hamas has
• 12:43
  S2: promised to do, but in my humble estimation, will never do.
• 12:47
  S2: They exist to make war against Israel. They're not going
• 12:50
  S2: to stop in a in a genuine, serious, long term way.
• 12:53
  S2: So it's only I mean, that's the latest defiance of
• 12:56
  S2: Trump by Netanyahu. But likewise, he's defied him over Lebanon.
• 13:00
  S2: He's got his own election coming up in October. He's
• 13:03
  S2: focused on his own interests and to hell with Trump.
• 13:06
  S2: So Trump is increasingly emerging as being defied, impotent, embarrassed,
• 13:12
  S2: humiliated by friend and foe.
• 13:15
  S1: Almost like a pariah within his own war that he,
• 13:19
  S1: you know, spearheaded.
• 13:21
  S2: Uh, the longer it goes on, the worse it gets
• 13:23
  S2: for him. And he doesn't seem to be able to
• 13:25
  S2: extricate himself. And I should just add, lest it sound
• 13:29
  S2: like we're, you know, rejoicing in this, there is absolutely
• 13:31
  S2: no pleasure for us. There's no schadenfreude whatsoever for us.
• 13:37
  S2: Talking about Australia as a US ally in this humiliation
• 13:41
  S2: and weakening of the US, it's the country on which,
• 13:44
  S2: above all else, we've been relying and continue to rely
• 13:47
  S2: and have a close relationship with in within defense and intelligence.
• 13:51
  S2: So it's it's humiliation is bad news for us, for
• 13:55
  S2: the West as a whole, for the future credibility and
• 13:59
  S2: activity and, and even resoluteness of the US in future,
• 14:03
  S2: in future decades. So this is a serious and quite
• 14:06
  S2: sad point of humiliation for, for the US.
• 14:11
  S1: Not to mention the fact that if Netanyahu is essentially
• 14:15
  S1: blocking Trump from, I guess, exiting the war, doesn't that,
• 14:18
  S1: of course, prolong it? And then, of course, prolong the suffering,
• 14:22
  S1: potentially of many, many people? I mean, on a really
• 14:25
  S1: practical level, that's just horrifying.
• 14:28
  S2: Well, yes. I mean, we're talking about a war being
• 14:32
  S2: fought on several levels, none of them helping the ordinary
• 14:35
  S2: citizens of any of the countries involved, only harming all
• 14:39
  S2: of them. And because of the inflationary impulses around the world,
• 14:42
  S2: the fact that the US has run down its stock
• 14:45
  S2: of munitions, especially the Patriot missile interceptor.
• 14:48
  S1: And it's dangerously low, right?
• 14:49
  S2: Like that means that they've taken assets. They've taken air
• 14:52
  S2: defense assets out of Japan, out of South Korea. If
• 14:56
  S2: there's another crisis in the world somewhere, that's maybe the Indo-Pacific. Um,
• 15:02
  S2: does the US have the munitions to protect its allies
• 15:06
  S2: even if it chooses to? So these are all negatives.
• 15:11
  S2: It's hard to find any positives that have come out
• 15:14
  S2: of this aimless, pointless, reckless and feckless, ill conceived Trumpian
• 15:21
  S2: demonstration of what he thought would be great and mighty
• 15:24
  S2: American power, but has only turned into a demonstration of
• 15:27
  S2: of poor strategy, poor execution, uh, poor negotiation and ending
• 15:35
  S2: in humiliation.
• 15:36
  S1: And on a practical note, I mean, does Trump need
• 15:39
  S1: Benjamin Netanyahu on board to support him to actually end
• 15:42
  S1: this war? Like, how much of an obstacle is Benjamin Netanyahu?
• 15:46
  S2: Well, one of the Iranian conditions for it to allow
• 15:49
  S2: the Strait of Hormuz to reopen is that the US
• 15:54
  S2: and Israel cease and desist in any aggression against Iran,
• 15:59
  S2: but also all its proxies. So Hezbollah, for example, in Lebanon,
• 16:03
  S2: Israel has to stop any acts of aggression or threats
• 16:05
  S2: of aggression. The Iranians keep cranking up their demands, feeling
• 16:10
  S2: their power over the US and Israel, and really making
• 16:12
  S2: the most of it. So for that to be delivered, yes,
• 16:16
  S2: Trump needs Netanyahu to back off. In Lebanon, you know,
• 16:20
  S2: Netanyahu's not so interested in that idea. So as a
• 16:25
  S2: practical point, yes, Trump needs Netanyahu's cooperation, and he's not
• 16:29
  S2: getting much at the moment.
• 16:31
  S1: I'm pausing because it's just it's it's heavy, Peter, but
• 16:34
  S1: thank you so much for your time.
• 16:36
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 16:45
  S1: In other news today, Australians will soon be able to
• 16:48
  S1: use their faces and the veins on their palm to
• 16:51
  S1: pay for goods and services, thanks to biometric technology. Food
• 16:55
  S1: delivery drivers in the gig economy will now have a
• 16:58
  S1: legally enforced minimum wage of $31.30 per hour, and eating
• 17:03
  S1: disorders are rising faster in men than women, with an
• 17:06
  S1: estimated 365,000 Australian men currently experiencing an eating disorder. Around 46%
• 17:14
  S1: more than the number of men living with or beyond
• 17:16
  S1: a prostate cancer diagnosis. You can read more at the
• 17:20
  S1: age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Tammy Mills,
• 17:28
  S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
• 17:33
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• 17:39
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