Latest / Foul Territory / Sam Miller: 1st pitch fastball fever, WS timing + Why root for LA?

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Sam Miller: 1st pitch fastball fever, WS timing + Why root for LA? · Foul Territory

0:03
Speaker 1: Hey, we've got to Sam Miller joining us right now.
0:06
Speaker 2: Check out his substack Pebble Hunting, and I'm going to
0:08
Speaker 2: ask him about an article in there right off the jump.
0:11
Speaker 3: Here.
0:11
Speaker 2: You've seen Sam for years also in the past his
0:14
Speaker 2: editor in chief of Babesball Prospectus.
0:16
Speaker 1: Sam, great to have you on. First off, thank you
0:18
Speaker 1: for the time.
0:19
Speaker 4: How you doing, Yeah, I'm good.
0:21
Speaker 3: I'm excited.
0:21
Speaker 4: You know, I've been a big fan of Eric Kratz
0:23
Speaker 4: since since his rookie year, so I'm kind of excited
0:26
Speaker 4: to be here.
0:27
Speaker 1: Since his rookie year. Wait, hold up, since his rookie year.
0:30
Speaker 1: You've been tracking him on the.
0:31
Speaker 4: Prospects, Sam. I don't know how much you remember, but
0:34
Speaker 4: twenty twelve verit Kratz was a phenomenon. And yeah, I
0:38
Speaker 4: mean I remember learning what he drove that year. He
0:41
Speaker 4: was driving a ninety eight Honda Cord with one hundred
0:45
Speaker 4: and ninety thousand miles on it, and I thought, that's
0:47
Speaker 4: my guy.
0:50
Speaker 5: Not quite one hundred ninety thousand, but yes, it was
0:52
Speaker 5: a white, white Honda Cord. And also Sam, twenty twelve,
0:57
Speaker 5: Yes it was a phenomenon, but actually, maybe my debut
1:00
Speaker 5: in twenty ten, I just never got enough at bats
1:03
Speaker 5: in ten or eleven until I got to twenty twelve.
1:06
Speaker 2: Yeah wow, I mean I do type in aircrats wait
1:12
Speaker 2: onto coordinate pops up with multiple articles, which is kind
1:15
Speaker 2: of crazy. Although I think the mileage off means that
1:18
Speaker 2: some stories were embellished in the past, so we might
1:21
Speaker 2: have to do some research on that, but it adds
1:23
Speaker 2: to the story anyway. I'm going to start you with
1:27
Speaker 2: the beginning of games looking very similar, So can you
1:31
Speaker 2: tell us about the research you've done on first pitches
1:34
Speaker 2: and how it is playing out here in the postseason.
1:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, So, you know, it used to be that the
1:41
Speaker 4: first pitch of the game was always a fastball, is
1:45
Speaker 4: usually down the middle, and it was usually taken. And
1:49
Speaker 4: it still is usually a fastball. It's usually down the middle,
1:52
Speaker 4: and a few years ago hitters started to swing at
1:55
Speaker 4: that pitch and they're doing like huge damage on it.
1:59
Speaker 4: Probably the best way of putting this in perspective is
2:02
Speaker 4: that in twenty ten, there were six homers on the
2:05
Speaker 4: first pitch of the game. This year there have been
2:07
Speaker 4: fifty three homers on the first pitch of the game.
2:10
Speaker 4: The swing rate has been going up pretty steadily for
2:13
Speaker 4: the last like seven years and it's now about triple
2:18
Speaker 4: what it was seven or eight years ago. And this
2:22
Speaker 4: has just been really fascinating to me because pitchers aren't adjusting,
2:25
Speaker 4: they're still just as predictable. And I think we all
2:29
Speaker 4: kind of know that, you know, like there are no
2:32
Speaker 4: fastball counts anymore. Three to one count, Well, it's like
2:35
Speaker 4: as likely to be an off speed pitch as a fastball,
2:38
Speaker 4: But the first pitch of the game remains the one
2:40
Speaker 4: super predictable moment in baseball. It's ninety four percent fastballs,
2:46
Speaker 4: it's a higher strike rate than any other count. It's
2:49
Speaker 4: not even as hard. They usually throw a somewhat softer fastball,
2:53
Speaker 4: and pitchers are not adjusting as fast as hitters are,
2:55
Speaker 4: and so it creates this one moment that I'm always
2:58
Speaker 4: excited to see of like will the batter do damage
3:02
Speaker 4: on the first pitch of the game. And there have
3:03
Speaker 4: been two homers in the LCS round already out of
3:08
Speaker 4: five games on that pitch, which delights me, and I'm
3:13
Speaker 4: looking forward to the next one.
3:16
Speaker 3: Sam, how much of this, though, also includes foul balls?
3:20
Speaker 3: Is it just?
3:20
Speaker 6: I mean, obviously, like if you look at first pitch
3:22
Speaker 6: numbers and I swung it more for as money first
3:25
Speaker 6: pitch as anybody did, but if you foul them off,
3:28
Speaker 6: it doesn't count it, right, So it's only when the
3:30
Speaker 6: ball is put in play, So yes, can you do
3:32
Speaker 6: more damage on that yes, But also pitchers, and I'm
3:34
Speaker 6: gonna tell you this from experience, I think Kratzio back
3:36
Speaker 6: me up. They don't want to throw a first pitch
3:38
Speaker 6: break the ball because they say, if I come out
3:40
Speaker 6: and I dot one down in a way and I
3:42
Speaker 6: get one pitch and one out, I'm off and rolling.
3:45
Speaker 3: Here we go right now.
3:46
Speaker 6: If the guy gets a hit obviously changes things because
3:48
Speaker 6: you don't make a good pitch. But to me, it
3:50
Speaker 6: was like, man, if you can just dot a fastball
3:52
Speaker 6: down in a way for strike one, or you know,
3:54
Speaker 6: if you throw a sink or sink one in and
3:56
Speaker 6: get one pitch, one out or off to the races,
3:58
Speaker 6: baby oh.
4:00
Speaker 4: I think like when you're talking about any other batter
4:02
Speaker 4: in the game, that's definitely true. I'm talking specifically first
4:06
Speaker 4: pitch of the game, you know, the first pitch to
4:08
Speaker 4: the first batter of the game. That's like the pitchers
4:11
Speaker 4: like deep breath, get settled, figure out the mound, throw
4:16
Speaker 4: it down the middle. Right, that's that moment where like
4:18
Speaker 4: he doesn't think the batter is swinging and he's just
4:20
Speaker 4: gonna get ahead with an easy strike one. And that's
4:23
Speaker 4: specifically the pitch that batters are jumping on now that
4:27
Speaker 4: they never used to jump on before that it used
4:30
Speaker 4: to be an automatic take. Now it's not an automatic
4:32
Speaker 4: take anymore. They're swinging like a lot and they're like,
4:35
Speaker 4: batter's on the first pitch of the game this year
4:38
Speaker 4: slugged about eight hundred. They're like demolishing it, like like O'Neil.
4:45
Speaker 4: Cruz only led off sixty games, and his slugging percentage
4:51
Speaker 4: is twenty points higher just on the just because of
4:55
Speaker 4: what he did on the very first pitch of the game.
4:57
Speaker 4: So not one zero counts, not first pitch of the third,
5:00
Speaker 4: first pitch of the game raised his slugging percentage for
5:03
Speaker 4: the entire season by twenty points because he's getting fastballs
5:08
Speaker 4: right down the middle and pitchers think he's gonna take it,
5:11
Speaker 4: and he's not taking it, and they're not adjusting. It's
5:14
Speaker 4: hysterical to me that they're not adjusting because the game
5:16
Speaker 4: is so quick to adjust in everything else these days,
5:20
Speaker 4: but pitchers this year, still ninety three to ninety four
5:23
Speaker 4: percent fastballs right down the middle, usually not even their
5:27
Speaker 4: hardest fastball bombs away.
5:30
Speaker 5: But is that because the leadoff hitter is now a
5:35
Speaker 5: different player, Like we're putting we're not putting that guy
5:39
Speaker 5: in who's gonna work the at bat. We're not gonna
5:42
Speaker 5: put that guy in that's gonna, you know, change things.
5:45
Speaker 5: Kyle Schwarber's led off quite a bit, not this year,
5:49
Speaker 5: Shoho Tani's leading off. Like there's dudes that are coming
5:52
Speaker 5: out looking to make the game one and nothing.
5:55
Speaker 4: That is absolutely true. That's like a that's I think
5:58
Speaker 4: that's probably what started the swinging going up in that
6:01
Speaker 4: situation because you're right in the you know, when you
6:04
Speaker 4: had like I don't know, Luis Castillo leading off in
6:08
Speaker 4: the two thousands, you wanted him to take seven pitches
6:11
Speaker 4: and maybe work a walk and give the batters after
6:13
Speaker 4: him a chance to look at the pitcher and all that.
6:15
Speaker 4: Nowadays you've got your best hitter Byron Buxton's leading off.
6:19
Speaker 4: You want him to do damage. And so they started
6:22
Speaker 4: swinging more and more when more power hitters got put
6:25
Speaker 4: in the leadoff spot, and the fact that pitchers are
6:30
Speaker 4: still throwing meatballs to those guys who are the most
6:32
Speaker 4: damaging batters in the lineup is really interesting.
6:35
Speaker 1: Like you look at.
6:36
Speaker 4: Three Oho counts nowadays three Oho counts. We know, like
6:41
Speaker 4: they don't want to get beat by a power hitter,
6:44
Speaker 4: so they're throwing three oh sliders, three Ozho change ups.
6:48
Speaker 4: But first pitch of the game, it doesn't matter. It's
6:51
Speaker 4: still fastball right down the middle.
6:55
Speaker 5: What about what do you think about a guy that
6:57
Speaker 5: almost went forty forty, Juan Soda if he leads off.
7:01
Speaker 5: Are we taking too much into this or we talk
7:05
Speaker 5: about in the postseason the team that scores first has
7:09
Speaker 5: a better chance of winning.
7:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I mean, like you look at I think
7:14
Speaker 4: if Juan Sota were leading off, he would get that
7:17
Speaker 4: pitch and he would do damage. I mean, one, Soto
7:19
Speaker 4: is a very patient hitter, but he's also aggressive in
7:21
Speaker 4: the strike zone. Sho Heo Tawny hit two or three
7:25
Speaker 4: first pitch of the game. Homers this year slugged eight hundred,
7:30
Speaker 4: no sluged one thousand, slugged one thousand on the first
7:32
Speaker 4: pitch of the game, So he's looking to do damage.
7:35
Speaker 4: Byron Buxton hit three homers, slugged eight p fifty on
7:39
Speaker 4: the first pitch of the game. Fernando Tatis swung at
7:41
Speaker 4: the first pitch of the game. Almost half the time,
7:43
Speaker 4: he's looking to do damage on the first pitch of
7:46
Speaker 4: the game. This is obviously not a storyline that lasts
7:49
Speaker 4: very long. The game starts in within ten seconds, you
7:52
Speaker 4: already know whether the first pitch of the game was
7:54
Speaker 4: hit for a home run. But it's really interesting how
7:56
Speaker 4: many games are starting with like fireworks explosion, and I
8:01
Speaker 4: think that's to Is that part of why teams are
8:06
Speaker 4: willing to put their power hitters in the front of
8:08
Speaker 4: the lineup, to have you know, non traditional power hitting
8:11
Speaker 4: leadoff hitters. I don't know. I don't know if the
8:13
Speaker 4: fact that they're getting fed strikes is a factor there,
8:17
Speaker 4: but you certainly see kind of a mismatch between the
8:19
Speaker 4: pitcher's goals in that spot. The pitcher wants to get established,
8:24
Speaker 4: he wants to find his footing, see what's working. You know,
8:28
Speaker 4: he's not looking to get creative on the first pitch
8:31
Speaker 4: or the first couple pitches of the game. He just
8:33
Speaker 4: wants to get settled. And you put someone out in
8:36
Speaker 4: the lineup who can hit the ball. Four hundred and
8:39
Speaker 4: seventy feet and it creates this like immediate mismatch, this
8:43
Speaker 4: immediate advantage for the offense. And this year was the
8:48
Speaker 4: record for most first pitch of the game home runs.
8:51
Speaker 4: It's the second highest slugging percentage ever on first pitch
8:55
Speaker 4: of the game. It's the highest swing rate ever on
8:58
Speaker 4: first pitch of the game. So far, pitchers haven't adjusted
9:03
Speaker 4: at all, and like I'm looking to see, like the
9:06
Speaker 4: Blue Jays, sorry, the Mariners and the Brewers have both
9:11
Speaker 4: allowed first pitch of the game home runs in the LCS,
9:14
Speaker 4: so they know that leadoff hitter is going to be swinging,
9:17
Speaker 4: and so I will be interested to see whether they adjust.
9:19
Speaker 4: My guess is they won't. It's not something that anybody's
9:22
Speaker 4: adjusting on yet.
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Speaker 2: surf Shark. Sam, I'm going to ask you a macro
10:28
Speaker 2: postseason Slash World Series question. I know you're good at
10:31
Speaker 2: this stuff and you'll have a take. Should MLB go
10:35
Speaker 2: back to the one year trial session of making the
10:39
Speaker 2: World Series happen a little bit quicker. If the lcs's
10:43
Speaker 2: end quick, it might not be a factor this year.
10:46
Speaker 2: And last year was the first time they were going
10:48
Speaker 2: for it, and it wasn't really covered much because it
10:50
Speaker 2: didn't end up happening. I think they were close to
10:52
Speaker 2: that deadline and it just went over, So the World
10:55
Speaker 2: Series ended up happening at its normal time period. Ken
10:58
Speaker 2: Rosenthal talked about this on his Spare Triage show the
11:00
Speaker 2: other day. So I figured I would throw it at
11:02
Speaker 2: you this August. They decided it's not happening this year.
11:05
Speaker 2: There could be business decisions behind the scenes of Okay,
11:07
Speaker 2: we want it to start in these days and lay
11:09
Speaker 2: out this way. But for Baseball, I'm assuming you would
11:12
Speaker 2: think we should start it within a few days and
11:14
Speaker 2: not potentially five plus days later.
11:18
Speaker 4: Could Yeah, it could be potential that Friday will tomorrow
11:23
Speaker 4: will settle both of these series, and then the World
11:26
Speaker 4: Series doesn't start for a whole week. You know, I
11:29
Speaker 4: would say that the the fact that teams are always
11:33
Speaker 4: talking about what a disadvantage it is to have a
11:36
Speaker 4: week long layoff is a pretty big factor.
11:40
Speaker 5: You know.
11:40
Speaker 4: I guess I'm a little I've always been a little
11:43
Speaker 4: skeptical that the layoff discourse of like whether teams are
11:47
Speaker 4: disadvantaged by having too much time off. I guess I've
11:50
Speaker 4: always thought it was probably a little overblown. But teams
11:55
Speaker 4: are pretty consistent, like they you know, batters do not
11:57
Speaker 4: like falling out of that routine. They don't like taking
12:00
Speaker 4: five or six days off, and you don't want the
12:04
Speaker 4: World Series to be a situation where teams feel like
12:07
Speaker 4: they're going into it cold or disadvantaged for any reason.
12:12
Speaker 4: So for that, you know, for that reason, it does
12:16
Speaker 4: seem like being more nimble with the schedule and just
12:19
Speaker 4: figuring out a way to start it two games after
12:22
Speaker 4: the last game is settled would just like from a
12:25
Speaker 4: competitive standpoint, it'd be a lot better. I know that
12:28
Speaker 4: the league has a lot of people who like their
12:32
Speaker 4: primary interest is broadcast ratings, and there are people whose
12:36
Speaker 4: interest is in, you know, booking hotels, and there's a
12:39
Speaker 4: lot of different people with a lot of different jobs
12:42
Speaker 4: in the game who have different interests. But no, I mean,
12:46
Speaker 4: if it happens that both of these lcs's are settled
12:49
Speaker 4: by tomorrow, or you know, if only one is, I
12:52
Speaker 4: guarantee you that there's gonna be a ton of discussion
12:55
Speaker 4: this time next week about well would the other team
12:59
Speaker 4: do to stay, how much of a disadvantage is it.
13:02
Speaker 4: Are they going to be rusty on the first game back?
13:05
Speaker 4: You know, it doesn't really seem like a particularly fair
13:09
Speaker 4: way of doing things, given that this is a pretty
13:12
Speaker 4: consistent message coming out of teams that they don't want
13:15
Speaker 4: six days off in the middle of their postseason.
13:18
Speaker 6: Sam, well, I'm gonna snap back at you here, because
13:20
Speaker 6: here's the thing. I was on a team twenty years ago.
13:23
Speaker 6: We had time off and we kicked everyone's ass. I
13:24
Speaker 6: don't care about time off. It's postseason. Figure it out, right.
13:27
Speaker 6: The only teams that complain are the teams that lose.
13:30
Speaker 6: If you lose, you go wan wow, whow. We had
13:32
Speaker 6: time off, right. The Dodgers had all kinds of time
13:34
Speaker 6: off last year they won. They didn't complain once right
13:37
Speaker 6: now when they lost the year before, like oh yeah,
13:39
Speaker 6: too much time off? Right this year or last year
13:41
Speaker 6: the Yankees and Dodgers number one seeds, they had the
13:44
Speaker 6: time off, they won, they got to the World Series.
13:46
Speaker 6: Right this year, I look at it the same way.
13:49
Speaker 6: The teams who had the time off they advanced. So
13:51
Speaker 6: I don't understand where the Brewers had time off.
13:53
Speaker 3: They won.
13:54
Speaker 6: They didn't complain about the time off. They were like, man,
13:56
Speaker 6: we're grateful we had those days off so we could
13:57
Speaker 6: get our pitching in order. Right as you're saying like,
14:00
Speaker 6: oh yeah, we need them to go, right, away this
14:03
Speaker 6: the super Bowl takes two weeks off. Nobody complains about
14:06
Speaker 6: the two weeks and the weekend between there. Right, It's
14:09
Speaker 6: just because the team that lose has to have something
14:11
Speaker 6: to play and they can't look in the mirror and say, man,
14:13
Speaker 6: we just lost, we got beat Oh no, we had
14:15
Speaker 6: too much time off. It's an easy excuse.
14:18
Speaker 3: I hate it. It's stupid.
14:20
Speaker 4: I am personally glad to hear you say that, because again,
14:24
Speaker 4: I think that that discourse has always been overblown. I
14:28
Speaker 4: try to defer, you know, when I hear a lot
14:31
Speaker 4: of professionals tell me what their job is, like, I
14:34
Speaker 4: try not to say, no, that's not how your job is.
14:37
Speaker 4: I know better than you, because they do the job
14:38
Speaker 4: and they do say it a lot. Like they say
14:40
Speaker 4: it a lot. A lot of people in the game
14:43
Speaker 4: will say it, so I you know, I believe that
14:44
Speaker 4: it makes people uncomfortable. But you know, in the back
14:48
Speaker 4: of my mind, deep in my heart, do I basically
14:51
Speaker 4: agree with you aj? Yeah, basically, Like it does seem
14:54
Speaker 4: like everyone's probably having a good time getting their bodies
14:57
Speaker 4: in order at this stage of the season. Everybody's got
15:01
Speaker 4: aches and bruises that they would like to have a
15:03
Speaker 4: couple of days to heal as well. So the data
15:09
Speaker 4: for this so called layoff curse being real is mixed
15:13
Speaker 4: at best. So that said again, like players say it,
15:20
Speaker 4: I don't want to call them myers. I believe it
15:23
Speaker 4: makes them uncomfortable, and I think they would probably like
15:28
Speaker 4: if you were voting, probably the players would want to
15:32
Speaker 4: start a day or two later, right if you were
15:34
Speaker 4: voting at the stage of this time.
15:35
Speaker 6: It's my question of course players are going to say that,
15:37
Speaker 6: because it's kind of the thing to say. Right again,
15:40
Speaker 6: if you ask cal Rawley after catching one hundred and
15:42
Speaker 6: thirty five games, if he enjoyed the five days off
15:44
Speaker 6: before he got to catch five more games in the
15:47
Speaker 6: in the DS, and now he's gonna catch every game
15:50
Speaker 6: in this LCS, which can go a bunch of games.
15:52
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, do you want the days off? Yeah? You do.
15:55
Speaker 3: You want to stay hot?
15:57
Speaker 6: Absolutely, But I also think it's a mindset if your
15:59
Speaker 6: manager goes into an says, look, the days off aren't
16:01
Speaker 6: going to affect us.
16:01
Speaker 3: We're just gonna go out and play instead.
16:04
Speaker 6: Of oh man, we have this time off, Like it's
16:06
Speaker 6: just it was just a mindset like, hey, we got
16:08
Speaker 6: time off, great, we don't have time off. Okay, we'll
16:10
Speaker 6: figure it out, right, And I think that's it's just
16:12
Speaker 6: all about a mindset of oh no, whatever excuse we
16:15
Speaker 6: can find, and baseball players are one great at finding
16:17
Speaker 6: excuses and two even better at complaining.
16:19
Speaker 4: I'm with it, And I mean I remember that two
16:22
Speaker 4: thousand and five run when you know you guys swept
16:25
Speaker 4: the LCS, and it was everybody agreed at that time
16:27
Speaker 4: that it was an advantage, you know, like, oh, you know,
16:30
Speaker 4: everybody's rested, you know, you've you've you get to sit
16:33
Speaker 4: back and relax while the other team has to keep fighting.
16:37
Speaker 4: And so I think you're probably right that, like these narratives,
16:40
Speaker 4: a lot of times they come after the fact and
16:42
Speaker 4: they're whatever's convenient to explain what happens next.
16:46
Speaker 1: Hey, Sam, last one for you, another big picture question.
16:49
Speaker 2: We are in a copycat league, right They look at
16:52
Speaker 2: what's going on often in the postseason.
16:55
Speaker 1: And say, oh, let's do a little bit more of that.
16:57
Speaker 2: Owners, especially since they're paying more attention and they might
17:00
Speaker 2: be jealous that their team is not involved. So what
17:04
Speaker 2: do you think the theme might be this year heading
17:07
Speaker 2: into the offseason based on what we have seen thus far?
17:11
Speaker 2: Do you think that starting pitching gets valued a little
17:14
Speaker 2: bit more because of the impact that it makes in
17:16
Speaker 2: the postseason. Do you think that contact comes into play
17:19
Speaker 2: a little bit more with the Blue Jays and Brewers
17:22
Speaker 2: or anything else that we're missing.
17:24
Speaker 4: Oh man, those are I think those are both really
17:26
Speaker 4: good possibilities. It's funny because copycat You don't tend to
17:32
Speaker 4: see a lot of copycatting of the team that loses
17:34
Speaker 4: in the LCS, even though like that's also a successful season, right,
17:37
Speaker 4: Like they could have gone all the way, So you
17:40
Speaker 4: kind of have to see who's going to win the
17:41
Speaker 4: World Series before you know what message really gets amplified.
17:45
Speaker 4: I think that there is a lot of talk this
17:49
Speaker 4: year about the Brewers as a team that was able
17:52
Speaker 4: to play up because of a you know, a prioritizing fundamentals,
18:00
Speaker 4: so prioritizing hustle for a lot of reasons. I think
18:03
Speaker 4: those two things have kind of fallen by the wayside
18:06
Speaker 4: in the last few years. They aren't seen as a
18:08
Speaker 4: priority in a lot of in a lot of teams.
18:11
Speaker 4: And the fact that the Brewers were able to take
18:12
Speaker 4: this team that you know, was basically hitting ground balls
18:15
Speaker 4: to the shortstop, but by hustling on every play. They
18:19
Speaker 4: were forcing a lot of airs, beating a lot of
18:21
Speaker 4: infield singles out. I think that's a pretty strong message
18:25
Speaker 4: that's coming out of the season, and I would expect
18:29
Speaker 4: that there's going to be a lot more talk about
18:33
Speaker 4: that coming out of clubhouses in the next couple of years.
18:38
Speaker 4: But you know, the Brewers probably aren't gonna win the
18:40
Speaker 4: World Series, so the answer is probably gonna be something
18:42
Speaker 4: that the World Series winner does. I think that the
18:46
Speaker 4: fact that the dot I mean, you can't really replicate
18:49
Speaker 4: what the Dodgers are able to do, but having so
18:53
Speaker 4: many starting pitchers has allowed them to outrun a lot
18:58
Speaker 4: of their flaws. Having starting pitchers that were handled pretty
19:05
Speaker 4: lightly during the regular season so that they're now healthy
19:08
Speaker 4: in the postseason despite pretty much all of those guys
19:11
Speaker 4: having long injury histories, is something that I think people
19:14
Speaker 4: will be taking a look at. One of the big
19:16
Speaker 4: tensions in the game these days is how do you
19:20
Speaker 4: balance the regular season against the postseason? How much do
19:23
Speaker 4: you put into winning in the regular season versus leaving
19:29
Speaker 4: something in the tank for the postseason. And the Dodgers
19:33
Speaker 4: I think will really come out of this season being
19:35
Speaker 4: remembered as a team that sort of sleepwalked through the
19:39
Speaker 4: regular season, made roster decisions that weren't aimed at winning
19:43
Speaker 4: every game, left players on the il maybe longer than
19:49
Speaker 4: they needed to so that they wouldn't be overused by
19:53
Speaker 4: the postseason, and didn't really prioritize, you know, winning one
19:57
Speaker 4: hundred and ten regular season games. They're prioritize being like
20:01
Speaker 4: the fully operational roster when October came, and it's worked.
20:08
Speaker 4: It's sort of like frustratingly worked. You know, we watched
20:11
Speaker 4: this team kind of look bad throughout the regular season
20:16
Speaker 4: and now suddenly like snap their fingers and they're dominating
20:20
Speaker 4: and they might just you know, win every game until
20:23
Speaker 4: the World Series is over. And I think that to
20:26
Speaker 4: the degree that teams can copy that that might be
20:31
Speaker 4: something that gets talked about. Like basically, the marginal value
20:34
Speaker 4: of a win in the regular season in a playoff
20:37
Speaker 4: system that's this deep is pretty low, whereas the marginal
20:41
Speaker 4: value of having your rotation healthy in October is pretty high.
20:45
Speaker 4: And the Dodgers might be the proof of that.
20:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, good call.
20:48
Speaker 2: I even think about Trey Savage and how the Blue
20:51
Speaker 2: Jays made sure that he had plenty of pitches left
20:53
Speaker 2: and the way that they built him up from a
20:56
Speaker 2: ball all the way to this point. I know it
20:59
Speaker 2: wasn't as flashy of a last start, but anyway, Sam,
21:01
Speaker 2: really appreciate it.
21:02
Speaker 1: Good stuff.
21:03
Speaker 2: Much more of this on pebble hunting the substack that
21:05
Speaker 2: you've been running for a minute, so for our fam
21:08
Speaker 2: check it out, appreciate it.
21:09
Speaker 1: Just Sam good talking.
21:10
Speaker 4: To you YouTube.
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Speaker 2: for yourself how money it is. We have reached the
22:25
Speaker 2: conclusion of our Pick Your Poison series and we saved
22:28
Speaker 2: one that is a little bit difficult for last. We
22:32
Speaker 2: now have each team covered in the final four and
22:36
Speaker 2: we will finish with the Los Angeles Dodgers. If your
22:39
Speaker 2: team was knocked out, we are going to try and
22:42
Speaker 2: make a case for you to root for the Dodgers.
22:46
Speaker 2: There are many people that are going to watch this
22:48
Speaker 2: clip and say, oh, I'm Dodger fan, I love them.
22:50
Speaker 2: There are more people that are going to watch this
22:52
Speaker 2: clip and say, I'm a fan of the twenty nine
22:54
Speaker 2: other teams. AJ and I consider the Dodgers the evil
22:58
Speaker 2: Empire at this point because so successful and spend more
23:01
Speaker 2: than anyone else.
23:02
Speaker 1: But you can't do that in this segment. You have
23:03
Speaker 1: to tell.
23:04
Speaker 2: People why they would love to root for LA to
23:08
Speaker 2: win again if their team isn't there right now.
23:11
Speaker 6: It's good for baseball if the team that spends wins,
23:13
Speaker 6: and it should put pressure on other teams to spend money.
23:16
Speaker 6: I know that the owners are going to argue that
23:18
Speaker 6: they don't because oh, you can't afford.
23:20
Speaker 3: But you can spend enough money to compete.
23:22
Speaker 6: Okay, the Brewers, the Mariners, whatever team you want to name,
23:26
Speaker 6: the teams that made the Tigers, whoever, the Guardians, you
23:29
Speaker 6: know whatever. They can spend more if they want to. Okay,
23:32
Speaker 6: but this is the argument right here. Star power, star power.
23:36
Speaker 6: If you like, pick your star, you want to like
23:38
Speaker 6: show Hey check Mookie check, Freddie check, will Smith check,
23:43
Speaker 6: Yamamoto check Glass Now check Snell check.
23:47
Speaker 3: I mean rookie Sazaki.
23:49
Speaker 6: Pick your pick your star, pick your star in baseball
23:52
Speaker 6: that you want to watch, and you want to see.
23:53
Speaker 6: Most teams, most most other sports wants the stars to win.
23:57
Speaker 6: For some reason, baseball doesn't believe Baseball fans don't believe
23:59
Speaker 6: in that. Put your stars on the biggest age.
24:02
Speaker 3: Right. The Dodgers have all the stars, not all of them,
24:05
Speaker 3: but a lot of them.
24:07
Speaker 5: I think my argument is based on the fact that
24:10
Speaker 5: your team just lost. You want to know how to
24:14
Speaker 5: have a winning team. Follow the Dodgers. You want to
24:17
Speaker 5: know what it looks like to have a team full of,
24:19
Speaker 5: like AJ said, stars, do the little things base run, run,
24:26
Speaker 5: the correct bunt play in a situation, execute those plays.
24:30
Speaker 5: But also they're not a perfect team. They pick each
24:33
Speaker 5: other up. Tommy Edmond almost almost jointed the ball into
24:38
Speaker 5: the dugout at the end of that bunt game where
24:40
Speaker 5: the Phillies were coming back. Guess what, Freddie Freeman picked
24:44
Speaker 5: them up. Taeoscar Hernandez dropped the fly ball in right
24:47
Speaker 5: field when Yamamoto was pitching against the Reds in the
24:50
Speaker 5: first of it in the first series to tie the
24:52
Speaker 5: ball game up. Guess what, Yamamoto picked them up. These guys, yes,
24:56
Speaker 5: they're stars, but they play together as a team and
24:59
Speaker 5: if you're a fan, they will accept you in. They
25:03
Speaker 5: want all the backing that they can get because they're like,
25:07
Speaker 5: we all back each other. Why not our fan base,
25:09
Speaker 5: So come on the train to Dodger Town.
25:14
Speaker 2: Hey, how about the fact that the roster construction is
25:19
Speaker 2: leading to success as well? Is key Key Hernandez. The
25:23
Speaker 2: best regular season player is Tommy Edmund. The best regular
25:26
Speaker 2: season player is Max Munsey, the best regular season player.
25:30
Speaker 2: We can go on and on with quite a few
25:31
Speaker 2: winners that they have been able to identify and fit
25:34
Speaker 2: into the cog and it's working for them. It's not
25:36
Speaker 2: like we're looking at this team aj and saying they
25:39
Speaker 2: have the best player, regular season war, all that stuff
25:43
Speaker 2: at each position. They have quite a few superstars like
25:45
Speaker 2: you mentioned, but it's not all around where you're looking
25:48
Speaker 2: at like the National League All Star Team.
25:51
Speaker 1: No.
25:52
Speaker 6: But also you're right, but they do a great job
25:54
Speaker 6: of also building depth. Which is why they're the best team.
25:59
Speaker 6: Is because they build enough depth in their organization, not
26:01
Speaker 6: only at the big league level, but in Triple A.
26:03
Speaker 6: They have guys injured, They sign guys that are injured.
26:05
Speaker 6: They take chances on some guys knowing they have the
26:07
Speaker 6: financial might, which is which is a huge.
26:09
Speaker 3: Positive for them. But also I'm gonna go back to
26:11
Speaker 3: my other point.
26:11
Speaker 6: The NFL, Right, they love the Everyone loves the Patriots
26:14
Speaker 6: and Tom Brady because he won all the Super Bowls, right,
26:17
Speaker 6: the NFL blew them up, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
26:21
Speaker 6: You go to basketball and you have MJ with his
26:23
Speaker 6: three peats, and you go to Lebron and Steph what
26:25
Speaker 6: they're winning, right, And then you go to hockey with
26:28
Speaker 6: who they want to win with the Panthers and Lightning
26:31
Speaker 6: because Florida owns the NHL, right, and we own the
26:33
Speaker 6: Stanley Cup. But other sports once these teams win for
26:36
Speaker 6: some reason, baseball fans, we can't have a repeat winner.
26:39
Speaker 6: It's been twenty five years since we've had a repeat winner.
26:43
Speaker 6: This might be the chance because this team is special
26:46
Speaker 6: because of all the things that they do correctly.
26:49
Speaker 5: When you become a Dodgers fan, I do have to
26:52
Speaker 5: give you one piece of advice. Don't go to the games.
26:55
Speaker 5: There's too much traffic. Be a Dodgers fan who watches
26:58
Speaker 5: on TV. Okay, oh that's the best.
27:02
Speaker 1: It's a really nice ballpark though. I like that ballpark experience.
27:06
Speaker 1: It's fun.
27:07
Speaker 2: But yes, you need to get yourself off of work
27:12
Speaker 2: early or something.
27:13
Speaker 1: You got to get there really early.
27:14
Speaker 5: It is failing second.
27:17
Speaker 1: Best getting in all of baseball.
27:20
Speaker 5: No, no, no, no, in the in the.
27:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, because there's there's some other teams. Obviously, the Brewers
27:26
Speaker 2: have their own thing going. But there are a few
27:28
Speaker 2: other teams that have a nice parking lot setup where
27:30
Speaker 2: you can get a good, good tailgate going. Yeah, the
27:34
Speaker 2: teams that aren't in that whole like downtown experience where
27:37
Speaker 2: it's about parking, getting out and then going to the
27:40
Speaker 2: other stuff that the owners have. It's about just I mean,
27:43
Speaker 2: like Kansas City, when things are going right and there
27:45
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, right, They that's just a massive parking lot,
27:48
Speaker 2: so they've got some good tailgating action going on. One
27:51
Speaker 2: other thing to play off of the superstar component AJ
27:55
Speaker 2: is that we've barely seen Mike shrout in October and
27:58
Speaker 2: that was a case for a while with the best
28:01
Speaker 2: player in our sport at the moment, who is show
28:03
Speaker 2: Hey Otani. It is fun to watch Otani and he's
28:05
Speaker 2: a really interesting storyline, and for a long period of
28:08
Speaker 2: time during prime years, we didn't get to see him
28:11
Speaker 2: at all at the game's biggest stage. In fact, we
28:14
Speaker 2: rarely saw him play any meaningful games after like May,
28:17
Speaker 2: so I do want to appreciate that, and that again
28:20
Speaker 2: plays to the difference between baseball and other sports.
28:22
Speaker 1: And that's cool because then we get to see.
28:24
Speaker 2: Stars emerge like Jorge Polanco being clutcher, Tommy Edmund last
28:29
Speaker 2: year as an NLCS MVP. That's cool, but it's also
28:33
Speaker 2: cool to see the best players on the planet actually
28:35
Speaker 2: play in the biggest games. And you're right, we don't
28:37
Speaker 2: get enough of that, and that's just a product of
28:39
Speaker 2: our sport, which makes it both cool but tougher to market.
28:44
Speaker 6: People don't understand how hard it is to make the
28:46
Speaker 6: playoffs in baseball. If you want to know, ask Mike Trout,
28:49
Speaker 6: ask show Hey when he was at the Angels, ask
28:51
Speaker 6: the Mariners.
28:52
Speaker 3: How long they've never made the World Series?
28:54
Speaker 6: Ask him how hard it is to win a World
28:57
Speaker 6: Series and to get to that point. It is really hard.
29:00
Speaker 6: And when, again, every other sport they want their best
29:03
Speaker 6: players to be in it. Baseball the last two years
29:06
Speaker 6: they had the Yankees in the and the Dodgers last
29:08
Speaker 6: year with some of the best players in the in
29:10
Speaker 6: the world at their sport. This year you got a
29:12
Speaker 6: shot at it again with whether whatever team makes it
29:14
Speaker 6: from the AL and if the Dodgers make it from
29:16
Speaker 6: the NL, you're gonna have some of the best players
29:19
Speaker 6: in the sport on the biggest stage where everyone's watching.
29:21
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's been great for the game. I'm sorry.
29:24
Speaker 6: Look at the ratings. Look at the ratings for these games.
29:27
Speaker 6: They've been off the charts good.
29:29
Speaker 3: I'm sorry.
29:30
Speaker 2: You can make a case that Paul Skeens is the
29:32
Speaker 2: best pitcher in baseball right now and he's not participating.
29:38
Speaker 3: And they're going to make the playoffs.
29:39
Speaker 6: So they're going to make the playoffs are out, So
29:41
Speaker 6: remember what did what did they the pirates say we
29:44
Speaker 6: have to make the playoffs next year, Well yeah, right,
29:48
Speaker 6: or what yeah? Or else we won't spend any more money,
29:53
Speaker 6: will trade Paul Schemes and well, and we'll trade Bubba Chandler,
29:58
Speaker 6: and we'll trade Brian Renolds and well.
30:00
Speaker 5: True two the Dodgers, Which is why you should be
30:05
Speaker 5: a Dodgers fan, because you'll be able to see Paul
30:07
Speaker 5: schemes soon.
30:09
Speaker 2: I have one more at the finish line here. You
30:12
Speaker 2: might look at this team and this segment and be
30:14
Speaker 2: puking because you really don't like the Dodgers and you
30:17
Speaker 2: feel like life is unfair. Right now, the Dodgers have
30:20
Speaker 2: not been like this forever. Nineteen eighty eight they won
30:23
Speaker 2: a World Series. They didn't win another one until twenty twenty.
30:27
Speaker 2: Some people didn't give them the same credit in twenty
30:29
Speaker 2: twenty because it was a COVID season.
30:31
Speaker 1: They didn't have to play a full marathon year.
30:33
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, then they won in twenty twenty four, so
30:37
Speaker 2: it's not like they've been darlings forever. They have been
30:40
Speaker 2: postseason darlings for a long period of time, but they
30:42
Speaker 2: haven't been able to get over the hump most of
30:45
Speaker 2: that time period. So I think it's important to keep
30:47
Speaker 2: that in mind in our sport and just google the
30:50
Speaker 2: name Frank McCourt if you want to go through a
30:52
Speaker 2: very recent era in Dodgers' history where you were like, oh,
30:56
Speaker 2: they have a lot of resources and.
30:57
Speaker 1: It's not working out for them.
30:59
Speaker 2: We also to show called Baseball America Hot Sheet where
31:02
Speaker 2: we go we went over the other day hit plus
31:04
Speaker 2: and stuff plus in terms of talent in the minor leagues,
31:07
Speaker 2: Dodgers number one hit plus prospects number one stuff plus prospects.
31:13
Speaker 1: I believe it was number one for both.
31:15
Speaker 2: So here's and if not top three, So here's my
31:18
Speaker 2: final thought process here. When we do have a salary
31:21
Speaker 2: cap for essentially the draft where you get a prospect
31:24
Speaker 2: amount of money pool that you spend on, and in
31:27
Speaker 2: the international draft you have that too, Guess what, Dodgers
31:30
Speaker 2: are still winning. So it's not going to solve all
31:32
Speaker 2: your problems.
31:34
Speaker 5: Don't google Frank McCourt. Don't rule your search