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Could Australia join the European Union? · The Morning Edition

0:07
S1: When Donald Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs in
0:10
S1: April last year, one question seemed to dominate which country
0:14
S1: would suffer the most economic pain. But since then, one
0:18
S1: country after another seems to have awoken to a starkly
0:22
S1: hopeful realization. The United States accounts for only about 15%
0:27
S1: of total global imports and trade. So could these countries
0:31
S1: join a newly powerful trading bloc? I'm Samantha Cylindromorphus, and
0:37
S1: you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age and
0:40
S1: the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter
0:44
S1: Hartcher on recent moves by Canada to possibly join the
0:48
S1: European Union and if Australia could follow suit. Welcome, Peter.
0:54
S1: Back to the podcast.
0:56
S2: Always a pleasure, Samantha.
0:58
S1: Okay. Now, it's not every day that you and I
1:00
S1: have the opportunity to discuss hopeful solutions to major geopolitical challenges.
1:06
S1: I mean, more typically we're discussing like hits that Australia
1:09
S1: and other countries are taking, whether it's tariffs or drone attacks.
1:13
S1: But in your latest column, you explore whether Australia could
1:17
S1: join the European Union. Why? Why would we do that, Peter?
1:21
S2: Well, our dear friend Donald Trump, everybody's role model, has
1:27
S2: been so busy scrambling the world order that countries just
1:33
S2: about everywhere have been casting about anxiously and energetically for
1:38
S2: new arrangements to sustain their security and their prosperity. And
1:44
S2: in the process, one of the countries most under pressure
1:48
S2: from Donald Trump, of course, has been Canada. And one
1:51
S2: of Mark Carney's potential solutions to this pressure from Donald
1:55
S2: Trump has been to start a negotiation, really with the
2:01
S2: European Union.
2:02
S3: What we are looking and beginning will begin discussions for
2:06
S3: unique alliance with the European Union between Canada and the
2:10
S3: European Union. We share the same values, we have the
2:13
S3: same priorities, and we have very complementary strengths.
2:18
S2: Now, I brought this up with the Trade Minister for Australia,
2:22
S2: Senator Don Farrell, who also happens to be a powerbroker
2:25
S2: in the labor government, the Labor Party. And he said, yes,
2:29
S2: this is something that I've been looking at very closely.
2:32
S2: And he said, we are on the same page with Canada.
2:35
S2: We will look very closely at how this goes and
2:38
S2: see if there's any potential for Australia to follow suit
2:42
S2: with the EU. Don Farrell actually said to me that
2:46
S2: he'd been thinking ever since the Brits left the EU.
2:50
S2: Don Farrell said I thought they could do with a
2:53
S2: large English speaking country and if the Brits don't want
2:55
S2: to be in it, maybe that should be a straight.
2:58
S2: So that's the short version there. Samantha. But but the
3:04
S2: essence of it is that is the Trump factor, the disruption,
3:08
S2: the fact that he has put tariffs on about 180 countries,
3:14
S2: almost every country on the planet, with just a handful
3:17
S2: of notable exceptions, always excluding Russia, of course, which always
3:20
S2: gets preferential treatment from Donald Trump, bizarrely, when it's dedicated
3:26
S2: to US downfall. And in that process, while Trump, in
3:32
S2: Trump's mind, he's shutting other countries out of the US market.
3:37
S2: But as the eminent economist Warwick McKibbin pointed out to
3:41
S2: me at the at the time when Trump announced the
3:44
S2: Liberation Day tariffs a year and a half ago, Warwick
3:47
S2: McKibbin said, well, you know, the US has only 15%
3:50
S2: of global trade, so the other 85% of global trade
3:55
S2: will simply work out new ways to restructure around the
3:58
S2: US rather than with the US. And that is precisely
4:03
S2: what's happening.
4:04
S1: Okay, so that's all pretty incredible turn of events, I'd say.
4:08
S1: And as you say, Trade Minister Don Farrell has told
4:10
S1: you that that he's making positive noises about what Canada
4:14
S1: has done and Prime Minister Mark Carney potentially considering joining
4:18
S1: the EU. Do you think we should take from Don
4:21
S1: Farrell's comments that our Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, would be
4:24
S1: similarly thinking along those lines?
4:27
S2: Yes, is the short answer. If you look at everything
4:31
S2: this government has done since Trump took office and in
4:34
S2: response to what the US is doing and China is doing,
4:38
S2: Australia has been busy trying to craft new and improved
4:42
S2: and deeper relations with a whole raft of countries from
4:46
S2: India to Indonesia, from Papua New Guinea to Palau and
4:52
S2: including Canada, by the way, that Canada and Australia have
4:55
S2: been talking to each other about security. For example, Australia
4:59
S2: is selling Canada for about $6 billion. It's over the
5:03
S2: horizon radar, so that Canada isn't so dependent on the
5:06
S2: US for the protection of its northern borders and a
5:09
S2: host of relationships around the world for trade, for investment,
5:14
S2: and for security. And Albanese has been at the head
5:18
S2: of all of those decisions. So I think we can
5:20
S2: safely assume that he would be happy to deepen ties
5:25
S2: with EU. And in fact, he signed off on a
5:29
S2: new trade agreement with the EU just six months ago
5:34
S2: in Canberra, where Ursula von der Leyen from the European
5:38
S2: Council signed this breakthrough trade deal with Australia. And that
5:42
S2: was eight years in the making.
5:44
S4: There is something unique about the partnership between Europe and Australia.
5:50
S4: It has matured over time, steadily and Consistently building on
5:55
S4: individual stories and a shared view of the world, even
6:00
S4: when worlds apart. So I'm glad to be here and
6:04
S4: to demonstrate in person that this is a relationship built
6:08
S4: for the long term.
6:11
S2: Like every leader, every sensible leader in the world, Albanese
6:15
S2: is looking to new arrangements in a world adrift.
6:19
S1: And tell us about that particular deal. You said that
6:21
S1: that deal that Australia has struck with the EU is
6:23
S1: so fresh it hasn't yet been ratified. There's the possibility
6:27
S1: it could be struck down by the coalition in a
6:29
S1: parliamentary vote. But tell us about that deal and how
6:31
S1: it might benefit Australians.
6:34
S2: It's it's a pretty interesting deal. For this reason, Samantha,
6:39
S2: Australia and the EU on trade have been at loggerheads
6:43
S2: for half a century because primarily because Australia has a
6:48
S2: very productive and very efficient agricultural sector, which is one
6:54
S2: of the biggest agricultural exporters in the world. I think
6:58
S2: we we export enough food to feed about 50 million people,
7:02
S2: in addition to the 25 million of us who live here.
7:05
S2: And the EU, on the other hand, has a highly inefficient,
7:10
S2: cosseted and unproductive agricultural sector which has been sustained by
7:15
S2: massive subsidies over the years. To illustrate that point, the
7:19
S2: trade economist Tim Harcourt years ago said and this is
7:23
S2: a lovely metaphor. He said it would be cheaper to
7:26
S2: fly all the cattle in France around the world, business class,
7:32
S2: not cattle class, than to pay for the agricultural subsidies
7:38
S2: in the European Union.
7:39
S1: That's something.
7:41
S2: So to break through that half century of impasse, which
7:44
S2: prevented a really soured relations and prevented any structural deepening
7:49
S2: of the EU Australia Relationship. This trade deal that's been
7:53
S2: now been signed by Albanese and von der Leyen makes
7:57
S2: the first really breakthrough moves to get beyond that. So
8:02
S2: the EU offers not total but very substantial agricultural market access.
8:08
S2: Australia offers a lot of other market access and concessions
8:12
S2: in return for. The EU estimates that the first phase
8:17
S2: of the deal would be worth about $10 billion a
8:21
S2: year to the Australian economy, and about $30 billion over
8:24
S2: ten years. And one of the reasons that the two
8:27
S2: countries brought themselves to crush through, to crack through that
8:32
S2: agricultural obstacle, is the potential for critical minerals. The European
8:38
S2: Union is, like the rest of the world, almost entirely
8:43
S2: dependent on China for its rare earths and critical minerals.
8:47
S2: And the Chinese Communist Party, as we've seen, is very
8:51
S2: happy to use its near-monopoly. About 90% of refined products
8:56
S2: of rare earth products come from China. Happy to use
9:00
S2: that as a tool of trade coercion. They did it
9:02
S2: to the Japanese 15 years ago. XI Jinping used it
9:06
S2: to defeat Trump trade threats. Just last year, he threatened
9:11
S2: to withhold China's rare earths from the US. The EU
9:17
S2: can see exactly the same problem facing it and wants
9:21
S2: to partner with Australia, which is one of the world's
9:23
S2: richest sources of rare earths and critical minerals, to develop
9:28
S2: a new source for the Europeans to break. The Chinese
9:32
S2: hold near-monopoly on on the European market. Because, of course,
9:36
S2: let's just remind ourselves, rare earths are essential to a
9:41
S2: functioning modern economy. Everything from smartphones to missile guidance and
9:47
S2: everything in between. You need rare earths.
9:51
S1: After the break.
9:53
S2: It's not hard to imagine Samantha in this, what I've
9:57
S2: called the age of carnivores, that it might well suit
10:02
S2: the EU to recast itself as a democratic union rather
10:05
S2: than strictly a European Union.
10:17
S1: And I wanted to ask you a question about whether
10:20
S1: the prospect of Canada or Australia joining the European Union
10:24
S1: could perhaps change its modus operandi, because obviously we're nowhere
10:28
S1: near to Europe geographically. And currently the EU is the
10:32
S1: world's largest trading bloc. But I'm just wondering if other
10:35
S1: countries like Canada, like Australia, perhaps join it. Does it
10:39
S1: then sort of become a bulwark, I guess, ideologically against
10:42
S1: other countries that, you know, want to threaten the rule
10:46
S1: of law or the international order or even democracy like.
10:49
S1: Does it become something larger, perhaps?
10:52
S2: It's a really good question, and it's a really far
10:55
S2: sighted question. I'd make a couple of points. One is
10:58
S2: that the way things are structured at the moment, neither
11:02
S2: Canada nor Australia is contemplating full membership of the EU
11:07
S2: because of the way it's structured under the Maastricht treaty,
11:10
S2: which defines the admission terms for members to the EU.
11:15
S2: It specifies that it's European members. And just briefly mention
11:22
S2: the criteria. They've got lots of detailed criteria involved. That's
11:26
S2: to give them an opportunity to shut out anybody they
11:29
S2: choose to. Um but broadly the criteria to join the
11:34
S2: EU are you have to be a committed, successful and
11:37
S2: functioning democracy and you have to have a functioning market economy. Otherwise,
11:42
S2: the only specification out of those realms is that you
11:45
S2: have to be European. Now Turkey has been trying to
11:51
S2: get into the EU for ages. Turkey is partly European
11:55
S2: on one side of the Bosphorus, but on the other
11:57
S2: it's Asian. So the question of how you define European,
12:02
S2: how is that fixed? Well, the Maastricht treaty only says
12:07
S2: that it's a matter for political decision. So it's subject
12:11
S2: to political definition. So on the face of it, that
12:15
S2: still would be pretty extraordinary to say that Canada is
12:19
S2: part of Europe, or that Australia is part of Europe
12:21
S2: before it's then able to take on the sort of
12:23
S2: character that you've just sketched, which is as a bulwark
12:27
S2: to protect democracy against autocracy and aggression. But if we
12:33
S2: take a step back from the current state of the
12:36
S2: EU to its origins, the two great statesmen who conceived
12:42
S2: the European Union were Helmut Kohl of Germany and Francois
12:46
S2: Mitterrand of France, and their vision was this Europe had
12:52
S2: to make sure it didn't go to war against itself
12:55
S2: ever again. And the Germans and the French were at
13:00
S2: the core of the creation of the EU. With that
13:02
S2: vision in mind, Helmut Kohl in particular, said that he
13:06
S2: wanted to make sure that Germany would never attack another
13:09
S2: European country, that the continent would be at peace with itself. Now,
13:16
S2: if that's the larger conception and motivation for the EU
13:22
S2: to adjust that concept for modern times, it may well, uh,
13:28
S2: may well involve a reconception of the EU. Of course,
13:31
S2: Australia can't affect that. That has to be an indigenous
13:36
S2: reconsideration within the EU. But it's not hard to imagine Samantha,
13:40
S2: in this what I've called the age of carnivores with Russia,
13:47
S2: China and now the third and largest carnivore of all
13:51
S2: the US, out to bully, to seize, to dominate the
13:56
S2: rest of the world. That it might it might well
13:59
S2: suit the EU to recast itself as a democratic union
14:02
S2: rather than strictly a European Union.
14:05
S1: And I guess, are there any downsides to Australia possibly
14:09
S1: joining the EU, though we realise this is still down
14:12
S1: the later sort of consideration. But, you know, I don't
14:14
S1: know whether it's our sovereignty or trade commitments.
14:18
S2: And it may be look who knows where. This is
14:20
S2: highly speculative, but it may be that the EU remains
14:25
S2: as it is. But there's a new construct larger than
14:30
S2: the EU, which includes EU members but also includes Canada,
14:34
S2: maybe Turkey, maybe Australia, maybe a bunch of other countries,
14:38
S2: who knows, in some sort of democratic union, although Turkey
14:42
S2: would have trouble fitting that criterion at the moment. Um,
14:48
S2: but if it were, if we were talking about Australia
14:51
S2: joining the EU on the EU's current definitions, it would
14:55
S2: like any treaty like any large um national enmeshment with
15:00
S2: another country. They always involve shared sovereignty where sovereignty to
15:06
S2: some degree is pooled to solve mutual problems. Now, that
15:11
S2: conception and definition is very out of fashion in Donald
15:14
S2: Trump's world, but it would. But to answer your question,
15:18
S2: it would mean, yes, Australia, if that were to be
15:20
S2: the case, would have to re cast a bunch of
15:24
S2: its thinking and policies, including the way it deals with
15:29
S2: climate change questions, the way it deals with immigration questions.
15:33
S2: It would be difficult and tricky, but equally it would
15:36
S2: present tricky questions for the EU as well. Perhaps why
15:41
S2: it's more prospective that in the Mark Carney conception, countries
15:46
S2: like Canada and Australia go right up to EU membership
15:50
S2: without actually joining, but to be connected in every other
15:53
S2: possible way. And Carney is talking about everything from defence, materiel, defence,
15:58
S2: industry cooperation, trade, of course investment, new undersea fiber optic
16:07
S2: cables to connect Canada and the EU, a really wide agenda,
16:13
S2: visa free access between Canada and the EU in a
16:17
S2: limited way for for work. So it's a it's a
16:21
S2: very wide ranging set of agreements that Carney has in mind,
16:25
S2: but falling short of full membership of the EU. And
16:29
S2: maybe this is a new category of what Mark Carney
16:33
S2: has called. According to the news reports, associate membership of
16:40
S2: the EU. This could well be a new category of
16:44
S2: EU membership that would allow an enlargement effectively of the EU,
16:48
S2: without full membership of countries that are way beyond the
16:53
S2: contemporary definition of where Europe begins and ends.
16:56
S1: Yeah, it's absolutely fascinating. And just to wrap up, Peter
17:00
S1: Anthony Albanese is planning on being in the United States
17:04
S1: this week. He's going to be attending the United Nations
17:06
S1: General Assembly to launch Australia's bid for a seat on
17:10
S1: the UN Security Council. I believe Albanese is also meant
17:13
S1: to be promoting Australia's new digital regulations and artificial intelligence agenda.
17:18
S1: This after, of course, pushback and warnings from the Trump
17:22
S1: administration regarding the desires of US tech giants. So should
17:27
S1: we read into this agenda an interest by Albanese to
17:31
S1: cement Australia's power in the wider world, perhaps in the
17:34
S1: context of a post-American world, which is, you know, the
17:37
S1: way people are positioning Mark Carney's entreaties to the EU.
17:43
S2: Yes, indeed. Many US allies or traditional US allies are
17:50
S2: now trying to do exactly that find new points of leverage,
17:53
S2: find new points of power projection, new new sources of
17:56
S2: strength to maintain their their security in a in a
18:01
S2: post America world where their American alliances aren't as useful
18:08
S2: as they were in the past. Every country is looking
18:10
S2: around it. And in the case that you mentioned, yes,
18:14
S2: Albanese is looking to showcase what he sees as Australia's
18:17
S2: world leading credentials, where Australia is the pioneer in trying
18:22
S2: to civilize so-called big tech. And he's trying to parlay
18:28
S2: that into a movement. And that is indeed part of
18:35
S2: his attempt to establish more power And leverage in dealing
18:40
S2: with those large and very careless behemoths that are really
18:45
S2: extractive industries, recast no longer. You know, extractive industries aren't
18:50
S2: restricted to just pulling out, you know, iron ore and
18:54
S2: oil and gas. These are extractive industries that extract our information,
19:00
S2: our time, our social relationships. And in the case of
19:04
S2: some of this social media and AI offerings offering to
19:09
S2: extract our very souls and maybe even destroy humanity. So
19:15
S2: Albanese is certainly trying to position Australia as a world
19:18
S2: leader in bringing some sort of order and reasonable limits
19:23
S2: to the damage that these industries are causing societies around
19:26
S2: the world.
19:33
S1: Well, Peter, how nice for us to discuss something hopeful
19:36
S1: for a change. You know. Proactive change? Possibly.
19:40
S2: Yes. And in the years ahead, I would suggest, Samantha,
19:44
S2: that more and more national leaders are going to have
19:46
S2: to discover or rediscover their own agency in establishing their
19:53
S2: safety and prosperity in a world of, of, of three
19:58
S2: great predators, large vulnerabilities and ceaseless change.
20:02
S1: Well, thanks, Peter, as always for taking us through this.
20:05
S2: Always a pleasure, Samantha.
20:12
S1: In other news today, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke fears
20:16
S1: Australia could become a guest worker economy as the number
20:19
S1: of temporary visas issued each year passes 1 million and
20:24
S1: the government prepares to announce major changes to the immigration system.
20:29
S1: The US acknowledgement that the country is operating weapons in
20:32
S1: outer space marks a landmark moment in space Militarization aimed
20:37
S1: at deterring what American officials describe as aggressive orbital activities
20:42
S1: from China and Russia, according to analysts and researchers in
20:47
S1: Victoria have found that children who start school with two
20:50
S1: years of kindergarten instead of one are five months ahead
20:54
S1: in their language comprehension and up to three months ahead
20:57
S1: on early numeracy and working memory skills. You can read
21:02
S1: more at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced
21:10
S1: by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and
21:14
S1: our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.
21:18
S1: If you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and
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21:24
S1: for listening.