Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 3 Lines and Spreads, and Twitter Q&A with Bookmaker Scooch

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NFL Week 3 Lines and Spreads, and Twitter Q&A with Bookmaker Scooch · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:17
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites Podcast. I am Chad Millman of
0:22
Speaker 1: the Action Network. This is the Wednesday edition of the
0:25
Speaker 1: Favorite Podcast, which means joining me from his Italian palace
0:30
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas, Nevada bookmaker to the ever increasing world,
0:35
Speaker 1: but certainly for the Orleans and all the Boyd gaming
0:38
Speaker 1: books in the state of Nevada and Mississippi. Mr Bob
0:43
Speaker 1: SCOOCHI Scooch, How are you, buddy? I'm good. How are
0:46
Speaker 1: you doing? I'm good. We have a very special treat
0:49
Speaker 1: for you. We got a lot to get to today.
0:50
Speaker 1: We're gonna go through every game and see what the
0:52
Speaker 1: markets are doing, and see how the lines are moving,
0:54
Speaker 1: and what the wise guys are saying, and what the
0:55
Speaker 1: joes are saying. We're gonna talk about Scoot row Lett
0:58
Speaker 1: at the end of the show. We're gonna make are
1:00
Speaker 1: very special uh picks that we do not guarantee, but
1:04
Speaker 1: we're sure gonna win before all of that happens. You
1:09
Speaker 1: know how you used to have some theme music and
1:12
Speaker 1: then it went away, and we have two new choices
1:17
Speaker 1: for theme music, And as we did when we used
1:19
Speaker 1: to be behind the bats at ESPN, when we had
1:21
Speaker 1: a very popular podcast, at ESPN called Behind the Bets. Um,
1:27
Speaker 1: we once played all the theme music and let people vote.
1:30
Speaker 1: And so we're gonna play two options and then we're
1:33
Speaker 1: gonna post him on the interweb and then we're gonna
1:36
Speaker 1: let people vote on the options. All right, and you
1:38
Speaker 1: can have your say too. I do recall that, Um,
1:42
Speaker 1: when we did this at ESPN, people voted. Ultimately I
1:47
Speaker 1: decided they were all wrong, and I chose the one
1:49
Speaker 1: I wanted. Yeah, yeah, I remember that. That was fun.
1:53
Speaker 1: Actually that was a good time, right. Um. Also, I
1:57
Speaker 1: have asked the world of Twitter to send me some questions,
2:00
Speaker 1: so we're getting some of those in and uh, we're
2:03
Speaker 1: gonna do all that. But first let's hear your theme
2:07
Speaker 1: music option one please. I call that the rock opera option.
2:37
Speaker 1: It's funny because that's exactly what I was thinking. Yeah,
2:40
Speaker 1: I get a Freddie Mercury vibe. I feel it's um,
2:45
Speaker 1: big and bold and it's the kind of thing that
2:50
Speaker 1: people come out to in movies about drugs, um, all
2:55
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. So that's that's number one. I
2:59
Speaker 1: like it. I like it. Let's your number two? That
3:20
Speaker 1: is great? What what makes you laugh about that? Because
3:24
Speaker 1: it was so I mean big. I mean it was
3:28
Speaker 1: like the build up. It is a massive build up. Now.
3:33
Speaker 1: The key is what I remember also is we need
3:35
Speaker 1: to get like some scooch is ums and millmanisms sort
3:41
Speaker 1: of laying into this. So it has sort of a
3:43
Speaker 1: bigger feel, right Like, it's got to have some sayings
3:47
Speaker 1: that you say, and then the music has got to
3:48
Speaker 1: come in and come out and undulate and peak and
3:51
Speaker 1: valley and all those things that sort of make it
3:54
Speaker 1: feel special and big and introduce you, uh in the
3:57
Speaker 1: way you've become accustomed to being introduced is sort of
4:01
Speaker 1: you know, royalty. I can picture you with a red cape,
4:07
Speaker 1: with a red cape and a crown. Oh my god,
4:11
Speaker 1: all right, what did you like better? I like the
4:16
Speaker 1: second one. The first one was a little eighties ish.
4:22
Speaker 1: The second one was I don't know, like two thousand
4:26
Speaker 1: one Space Odyssey. I like him both a lot. We're
4:29
Speaker 1: gonna put those online. Go check him out, Go check
4:32
Speaker 1: him out at the Favorites podcast. They'll be posted. Uh,
4:35
Speaker 1: we'll ask for your votes. You can also tweet at
4:37
Speaker 1: me and give me your choices. Um, but call. The
4:41
Speaker 1: first one is called Rock Opera. The second one is
4:45
Speaker 1: going to be called Boom tastic. Okay, okay, sounds good.
4:53
Speaker 1: What do you think of that? All right, we are
4:56
Speaker 1: ready to roll. So there you know, not now next time,
4:59
Speaker 1: next time we go, we'll have some team music and
5:00
Speaker 1: that's what you deserve. Hey scooch, how do things go
5:05
Speaker 1: for you last weekend? Because I was on the Jags
5:08
Speaker 1: at plus two, I wish I had taken them in
5:10
Speaker 1: scoopture that I did not. I took the Cardinals, he
5:13
Speaker 1: took the Panthers. We both lost. But generally I feel
5:17
Speaker 1: like you probably did okay last weekend. We we did
5:20
Speaker 1: really well last weekend. Um, if we could bottle that
5:23
Speaker 1: up and use it again a couple more NFL weekends,
5:26
Speaker 1: that'd be fine with me. We had a lot of
5:29
Speaker 1: a lot of underdogs. The big ones, UM, the Buccaneers
5:34
Speaker 1: again two weeks in a row. The Buccaneers, we were
5:36
Speaker 1: pretty big. Even though the straight bets were on the UH,
5:39
Speaker 1: the the Eagles, it was still still a big game.
5:43
Speaker 1: UH the Browns again was another big one for us.
5:47
Speaker 1: I think the biggest of the day was the Lions,
5:50
Speaker 1: and we got the back door cover against the forty
5:53
Speaker 1: Niners that turned in. That was one of the later games,
5:55
Speaker 1: and it turned into just a monster. Um, so that
6:01
Speaker 1: was another big one for us. The ones that we lost, Um,
6:04
Speaker 1: we lost that Bills game, we lost the Rams game.
6:07
Speaker 1: Those were the two big losers for us. But overall,
6:11
Speaker 1: way more underdogs than favorites, and that's always good with us.
6:15
Speaker 1: How are we supposed to account for the Bucks being
6:21
Speaker 1: are the Rams being huge favorites over the Cardinals and dominating,
6:28
Speaker 1: and the Bills being huge dogs at home against the
6:32
Speaker 1: Chargers and getting dominated. Now the Vikings open up against
6:37
Speaker 1: the Bills a sixteen and a half point favorites. All
6:39
Speaker 1: this stuff is going on as regular betters, as people
6:43
Speaker 1: who follow this forever. When you see big numbers, you
6:46
Speaker 1: see big road favorite numbers, like are we supposed to
6:50
Speaker 1: recalibrate already? What are thinking is when we see teams
6:53
Speaker 1: this bad? I think when we see teams like that,
6:57
Speaker 1: like the Bills, then right away everyone's talking about last
7:00
Speaker 1: year's Browns. You know, after they wanted to see as
7:05
Speaker 1: bad as they looked in week one, they wanted to
7:07
Speaker 1: see if they could rebound a little bit in week
7:09
Speaker 1: two or if they are just truly that bad. But
7:11
Speaker 1: after the second game, I think the consensus among the
7:14
Speaker 1: general public is that they're as bad as last year
7:18
Speaker 1: as Browns were. I know it's an early sample, but
7:21
Speaker 1: in terms of the betting and going up against a
7:23
Speaker 1: real good team, I don't think we can set this
7:26
Speaker 1: line high enough. So, um, sixteen and a half, I'm
7:30
Speaker 1: probably gonna go to seventeen here real shortly, and uh
7:33
Speaker 1: we're still gonna end up needing needing the Bills again. Um.
7:37
Speaker 1: I know it's early in the year, but certain teams,
7:39
Speaker 1: I think you can get a pretty good feel of
7:40
Speaker 1: just how bad they are. And that's and this is
7:43
Speaker 1: one of them. They are bad and there's no signs
7:48
Speaker 1: of it. Yeah, there's just no nothing that you can
7:51
Speaker 1: look at in the game to give you any sense
7:54
Speaker 1: of encouragement. Uh. You know that they have no quarterback
7:57
Speaker 1: they've got I mean they're they're relying on a rookie
8:00
Speaker 1: with with zero experience. Uh. They they've got nothing to
8:04
Speaker 1: kind of fall back on. No running game, no defense.
8:07
Speaker 1: It's it's really it's it's tough to watch. Here's a
8:12
Speaker 1: question from at bow underscore Jenks, J A and X.
8:17
Speaker 1: When is the best time to get bets down early
8:19
Speaker 1: late middle week? Uh? Does depend depend on if you
8:22
Speaker 1: were the dog or the favorite. Um. That's that's the question.
8:27
Speaker 1: Two questions. We're giving bow two questions. Yeah, so there's
8:30
Speaker 1: two schools on that. If you kind of have an
8:32
Speaker 1: idea of where the line is going to go, then
8:34
Speaker 1: it's best to bet early in the week. You know,
8:37
Speaker 1: if you if you think you're gonna bet a favorite,
8:40
Speaker 1: and you think the favorite is going to open up
8:41
Speaker 1: low and and and get much higher turned during the
8:45
Speaker 1: last part of the week, then you bet early. The
8:47
Speaker 1: reason most professional better is bet late. Two reasons. They
8:51
Speaker 1: don't want anyone following their plays. And then the second
8:54
Speaker 1: reason is your information is always more accurate with regards
8:57
Speaker 1: to UH personnel. So generally I would say the late
9:01
Speaker 1: move is the correct move. The late move is the
9:05
Speaker 1: correct move. UH. That's a scooch is um that we
9:08
Speaker 1: can add to your intro. I would also say, as
9:13
Speaker 1: a millmanism that we can add to the intro. You've
9:16
Speaker 1: got to get the best of the number, bo Jenks.
9:20
Speaker 1: Scooch is right. You really got to understand which way
9:24
Speaker 1: the point spread is going to go. You want to
9:26
Speaker 1: beat the closing number. That's that's what you want to do.
9:29
Speaker 1: Because even if you beat the closing number and you lose.
9:32
Speaker 1: That kind of says that your philosophy was right and
9:34
Speaker 1: in the long run, and we all want to be
9:36
Speaker 1: long term betters here in the long run, then if
9:39
Speaker 1: you beat the closing number, then you tend to have
9:43
Speaker 1: a positive r O. I would you say that's accurate, Scooch?
9:46
Speaker 1: I was definitely sure. Yeah. I mean that's kind of
9:49
Speaker 1: what we do on the other side of the counter
9:51
Speaker 1: is trying to get people to lay the worst of
9:53
Speaker 1: it and then hopefully in the long run, these tiny
9:56
Speaker 1: percentages add add up to you know, maybe a half
9:59
Speaker 1: a percent higher hold percentage at the end of the year,
10:02
Speaker 1: and that's big. That's huge, It's massive for you guys. Um,
10:09
Speaker 1: there's a game that will get to that. I was
10:11
Speaker 1: gonna say, there's a game that we're gonna get to
10:13
Speaker 1: on the board that almost everybody knew the line was
10:16
Speaker 1: going to come down. So when we get to it,
10:18
Speaker 1: that will be a pretty good example of betting that
10:21
Speaker 1: game as early as you could have. Well, you know what,
10:24
Speaker 1: let's get to the games, because I do think that
10:26
Speaker 1: I have so many questions honestly about like power rating
10:28
Speaker 1: teams right now, and I think it'd be more valuable
10:31
Speaker 1: just to do it because in almost every case you
10:33
Speaker 1: can talk about how you need to adjust teams and
10:36
Speaker 1: sort of how the first two weeks have impacted you
10:38
Speaker 1: because a lot of teams I think are different than
10:39
Speaker 1: what you thought. So I want to get right into
10:41
Speaker 1: the Browns and the Jets. And this is a great example,
10:44
Speaker 1: like the game opened three and a half, currently at three,
10:48
Speaker 1: even though you have the majority of the bets and
10:50
Speaker 1: the majority of the money. I'm looking at the Action
10:51
Speaker 1: Network app. I work at the Action Network. Scooches on
10:54
Speaker 1: an Action Network podcast. We are the Action Network. Um
10:58
Speaker 1: about the bets coming in on the Cleveland Browns. The
11:02
Speaker 1: line has moved in the opposite direction. That is called
11:04
Speaker 1: the reverse line move. That means the wise guys are
11:08
Speaker 1: probably on the Jets. Uh, it's currently a plus three.
11:12
Speaker 1: Give me your thoughts on what's going on there. Well,
11:15
Speaker 1: the Browns to two games that uh we needed them big.
11:18
Speaker 1: They covered for us. Uh. We tried to not adjust
11:22
Speaker 1: too much off of either team, but uh, the Browns
11:25
Speaker 1: are one of the teams that we kind of adjusted upwards. Um,
11:29
Speaker 1: the Jets, we wanted to we want to see how
11:31
Speaker 1: they did against the Dolphins because we we didn't want
11:35
Speaker 1: to take to read too much into their first game
11:37
Speaker 1: with a with a rookie quarterback as good as Sam Donald. Look,
11:40
Speaker 1: we know that anytime you have a rookie back there,
11:43
Speaker 1: he's prone to make uh mistakes as we've seen like
11:46
Speaker 1: in this first play play of the season. But uh,
11:51
Speaker 1: we just we'd rather see some Jets money on this one,
11:54
Speaker 1: and um we did early. But now it's like you said,
11:57
Speaker 1: it's come back on the Browns and I'm asidant to
12:00
Speaker 1: go back to three and a half. I hate bouncing
12:02
Speaker 1: back and four three and a half to three, So
12:05
Speaker 1: I'm kind of just, uh, I'm gonna stay at three
12:07
Speaker 1: minus twenty on the Browns for as long as I can,
12:10
Speaker 1: and uh, we'll probably end up needing the Jets point
12:12
Speaker 1: when all of a a sudden, done, why did you want
12:15
Speaker 1: Jets money? I do. I do think that you're gonna
12:20
Speaker 1: see too many people just took too much into that
12:22
Speaker 1: first game with the Jets, and and uh, their their
12:26
Speaker 1: expectations were really high. I saw them come back down
12:29
Speaker 1: to reality last week, whereas I'm seeing the Browns improving
12:34
Speaker 1: in a lot of areas that uh, um, I think
12:38
Speaker 1: this Browns team is going to surprise a lot of people. UM,
12:42
Speaker 1: and I'm I'm always wary about a rookie quarterback as
12:47
Speaker 1: good as he looks. Uh, They're just they can just
12:51
Speaker 1: turn on a dime and just cost you the game.
12:53
Speaker 1: And UM, I'd rather go into this game, UM needing
12:58
Speaker 1: the Browns if if I could, I'm not sure if
13:01
Speaker 1: I can. Well, how much of you had to adjust
13:04
Speaker 1: the Browns right now? Tell me about your thoughts on
13:05
Speaker 1: the Browns. I know you said you don't want to
13:07
Speaker 1: over adjust, but you've also seen them play. You like
13:09
Speaker 1: what they've done. They're one of those teams that I
13:11
Speaker 1: had to ask about, like, how do you manage the
13:13
Speaker 1: Browns right now? Yeah, we we moved them up a
13:17
Speaker 1: little bit off of that first week, and we moved
13:20
Speaker 1: them up even more than the second way. I think
13:22
Speaker 1: actually this uh um week two that they actually looked
13:26
Speaker 1: uh a lot more impressive than uh than week one,
13:30
Speaker 1: and uh even even though they again just you know,
13:34
Speaker 1: gave up UH a game that they probably should have won.
13:38
Speaker 1: But UH, I think they looked a lot more impressive
13:41
Speaker 1: in that game. UM, So we did. We did adjust
13:44
Speaker 1: them up. Whereas the Jets, we really haven't adjusted them
13:47
Speaker 1: too much. I do remember in the podcast. Last week,
13:53
Speaker 1: you had the Jets is three playing favorites, and I
13:55
Speaker 1: said to you, what are you thinking? And immediately you
13:57
Speaker 1: were like, yeah, that was a mistake. Yeah, And we
14:00
Speaker 1: went right to two and a half. And actually that
14:03
Speaker 1: turned out to be a pretty good, uh game for
14:05
Speaker 1: us because even at two and a half, everyone was
14:08
Speaker 1: on the Jets almost had a two to one clip,
14:10
Speaker 1: so that that was actually a real good game for us.
14:13
Speaker 1: I was. I was surprised, especially on the parlay card,
14:15
Speaker 1: how many people had the Jets on the parlay card.
14:18
Speaker 1: I am too, But that's a that is the Monday
14:21
Speaker 1: night football effect, right it is. You know, that's what
14:25
Speaker 1: you see. I mean, especially when they look impressive and everything,
14:28
Speaker 1: but you know, the short week and a and a
14:30
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, it's it's a lot to overcome, all right.
14:34
Speaker 1: The Carolina Panthers a three point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals.
14:38
Speaker 1: I've been on the Bengals for two weeks in a row. Uh,
14:42
Speaker 1: I still feel like you're probably not giving them enough
14:45
Speaker 1: respect here. I know you've basically made this a neutral
14:47
Speaker 1: you know, a Carolina it's you know, as low as
14:51
Speaker 1: you can go, you're basically saying these teams are even
14:52
Speaker 1: on a neutral field. Bengals are the better team here
14:56
Speaker 1: that they are and uh, and I'm actually gonna move
14:59
Speaker 1: this where three even money and I'm gonna go to
15:03
Speaker 1: two and a half on this right now, and right now,
15:07
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a line change. Yep, two teams that
15:12
Speaker 1: we've adjusted. I agree with you on the Bengals. We
15:15
Speaker 1: weren't real high on the Bengals going into the first game. Uh.
15:18
Speaker 1: We adjusted them slightly, but then adjusted them again. Uh
15:22
Speaker 1: last week and so to two weeks in a row
15:25
Speaker 1: where we adjusted the Bengals upwards, and I didn't adjust
15:29
Speaker 1: the Panthers after week one. Um, after the Cowboys game,
15:33
Speaker 1: I actually thought the Panthers were, uh gonna do a
15:37
Speaker 1: lot better. Obviously last week against the Falcons that was
15:39
Speaker 1: the Scooter Roulet pic, getting six points, they end up
15:42
Speaker 1: losing by seven. Uh, they did not, So two weeks
15:46
Speaker 1: in a row, they didn't look overly impressive, and uh
15:49
Speaker 1: we did adjust them downwards. And I think the Bengals
15:53
Speaker 1: are the better team here. You you mentioned the three
15:55
Speaker 1: points only accounts for a home field advantage, so that
15:58
Speaker 1: that tells you to minus two and a half the
16:00
Speaker 1: Bengals should be like a half a point favorite on
16:02
Speaker 1: a on a neutral field. You moved it? Did you
16:08
Speaker 1: move it? I moved it. You moved it from your house? Right, yeah, yeah,
16:16
Speaker 1: Why are you laughing at that? That's truth? Yeah it is.
16:22
Speaker 1: I don't know why it's it's it's surprising though, like
16:25
Speaker 1: it's just cool. That's the day and age we live.
16:28
Speaker 1: You are a powerful bookmaker, possibly the most powerful bookmaker
16:35
Speaker 1: in the state of Nevada and Mississippi, two hotbeds, and
16:41
Speaker 1: you are making the moves from your house while recording
16:44
Speaker 1: a podcast. This is true. I think I'm more impressed
16:48
Speaker 1: with you than you are. You are I don't know.
16:50
Speaker 1: I do this all the time, all the time. I
16:54
Speaker 1: do a lot of I got a lot of podcasts,
16:55
Speaker 1: and I got a lot of moves. I gotta make
16:58
Speaker 1: exactly New Orland Saints plus three on the road at
17:01
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons. Boy, get a lot of this is
17:04
Speaker 1: this is an interesting game. This is interesting to me. Right.
17:07
Speaker 1: There is a massive split here. The majority of the
17:10
Speaker 1: bets are coming in and the Falcons. The majority of
17:12
Speaker 1: the money is coming in in the Saints. That tells
17:15
Speaker 1: me the public is on the Falcons and the professionals
17:18
Speaker 1: are on the Saints. Yeah. So yeah, that's that's accurate.
17:23
Speaker 1: And this was a really tough line to make because
17:25
Speaker 1: we know, uh what the right number should be. And
17:29
Speaker 1: if you if we had made this line prior to
17:32
Speaker 1: the season started starting, Uh, we would have made it
17:35
Speaker 1: two and a right around two two and a half.
17:38
Speaker 1: It would have gone up to three immediately, and we
17:40
Speaker 1: would have sat at three. But having seen how well
17:44
Speaker 1: the Falcons played and how poorly the Saints looked, Uh,
17:49
Speaker 1: we know that the public is going to be all
17:51
Speaker 1: over this one. So we knew it was gonna be
17:54
Speaker 1: when they saw three, that they were going to be
17:56
Speaker 1: all over it. Um, So we tried to account for
17:59
Speaker 1: that and open as high as we thought we could
18:02
Speaker 1: at three and a half. And the wise guys took
18:04
Speaker 1: the three and a half instantly, And now the public
18:07
Speaker 1: is all over the over the Falcons at minus three.
18:09
Speaker 1: So another game where we don't want to bounce back
18:11
Speaker 1: and forth. Uh, we'll just ride it out at three
18:14
Speaker 1: knowing that the public is going to be all over
18:16
Speaker 1: the Falcons. And we're definitely going into this game knowing
18:19
Speaker 1: that we're gonna need the Saints plus three. I like
18:22
Speaker 1: that game. You know, you know, it sets up there's
18:26
Speaker 1: a lot of games this week that set up for
18:29
Speaker 1: a surprise. In other words, a team that looked really
18:33
Speaker 1: bad in the first two games getting only a couple
18:36
Speaker 1: of points. I feel like there's gonna be some surprises
18:40
Speaker 1: with two or three teams that looked bad two weeks
18:42
Speaker 1: in a row that they're going to come out and
18:45
Speaker 1: look really good in Week three. And you know, part
18:48
Speaker 1: of it is what we talked about is, you know,
18:50
Speaker 1: not getting a lot of reps in preseason, and especially
18:53
Speaker 1: that some of the teams that uh maybe get have
18:55
Speaker 1: some aging players. It takes them a couple of weeks
18:58
Speaker 1: to really hit full stride. And so I think we're
19:01
Speaker 1: going to see some surprises this week. The SAT this
19:05
Speaker 1: this is a this is a must win game for
19:09
Speaker 1: both of these teams. Divisional games early in the season
19:12
Speaker 1: to say that, but I believe it a divisional game.
19:15
Speaker 1: Each of these teams needs to define who they are. Yeah,
19:18
Speaker 1: it's a tough and I mean it's a tough division.
19:20
Speaker 1: They can't they can't afford to lose the games in
19:23
Speaker 1: division like this. I mean, uh, three teams come out
19:27
Speaker 1: of came out of this division, went to the playoffs
19:29
Speaker 1: last year, and uh, it's a it's a tough, tough division.
19:34
Speaker 1: Three teams went to the playoffs. None of them were
19:37
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are now leading the division
19:41
Speaker 1: at two and oh and have beaten the Saints and
19:43
Speaker 1: the world champions. That, my friends, is why gambling sucks, right.
19:52
Speaker 1: I know, it's it's crazy. There's just no reason for
19:57
Speaker 1: that to be true. Um, but then you get Ryan
20:00
Speaker 1: it's magic, and all of a sudden, the world is
20:01
Speaker 1: the world orders upside down Denver at Baltimore, the Broncos
20:05
Speaker 1: are five point underdogs. I know these are teams that
20:10
Speaker 1: are really popular. From the betting perspective, this to me
20:15
Speaker 1: feels like a corner TV game. I don't think it's
20:17
Speaker 1: gonna get a ton of action. I think it's going
20:20
Speaker 1: to be straight down Main Street. In terms of the split,
20:22
Speaker 1: I don't think wise guys are gonna like anything. Uh
20:25
Speaker 1: it's hard to judge the public, Like they're not gonna
20:27
Speaker 1: go to Baltimore of five points. I don't know. Man,
20:30
Speaker 1: talk me out of this. Tell me, well, well, the
20:33
Speaker 1: public had been on Baltimore, but they're they're not gonna
20:36
Speaker 1: be on him in this one lane lane five, I thought,
20:39
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised. We took a couple of wise Guy
20:42
Speaker 1: plays at plus five and a half, we went down,
20:44
Speaker 1: We went down to five on this one. I didn't
20:46
Speaker 1: think would get much much action at all on it. Um,
20:49
Speaker 1: but we did get some pretty big sharp action on
20:52
Speaker 1: the Broncos. So, um, we may we we may not
20:56
Speaker 1: need the end up needing the Ravens in this one.
20:59
Speaker 1: You got sharp action. Do you think that plus five
21:02
Speaker 1: and a half? Yeah? That and I can't. I can't.
21:06
Speaker 1: It really surprised me. That's all I can say is
21:08
Speaker 1: that it did. It surprised me. Did it disappoint you
21:15
Speaker 1: a little bit? I was hoping that they would actually, uh,
21:18
Speaker 1: you know, lay a big number. Um, but uh, you know,
21:22
Speaker 1: five is really and obviously it's a dead number. So
21:25
Speaker 1: there's not there's not much you know, I can I
21:28
Speaker 1: can go to four and a half. I can go
21:30
Speaker 1: back to five and a half and not really worry
21:31
Speaker 1: about it. Fall and five too much. Um, but I
21:35
Speaker 1: think you hit the nail on the head. It's gonna
21:37
Speaker 1: be a corner TV game. There's not gonna be much
21:39
Speaker 1: interest in it. The public used to be on the
21:41
Speaker 1: Broncos every week they used to be a much more
21:43
Speaker 1: public team. Um, but that's when they had a higher
21:46
Speaker 1: profile quarterbacks that I don't think Kingdom has made anyone
21:49
Speaker 1: a believer yet, certainly not me. I mean they are
21:54
Speaker 1: they won both their games and uh, um they are,
21:58
Speaker 1: they are two and oh, but they just haven't really
22:01
Speaker 1: drawn as much um support as you as you would
22:04
Speaker 1: imagine a Broncos team would. Yeah, that is like if
22:07
Speaker 1: you if you were if you went up to someone
22:09
Speaker 1: and said, name all the two and oh teams in
22:11
Speaker 1: the NFL, the Broncos are the one that would get forgotten,
22:14
Speaker 1: I really think. So you look at him saying, oh,
22:16
Speaker 1: yeah they are yeah, yeah, the Bengals would get forgotten.
22:20
Speaker 1: The Broncos would get forgotten, the Bucks would not. Um.
22:24
Speaker 1: If someone said to you, are the Packers undefeated? Uh
22:27
Speaker 1: and untied? Are they to know? You would say of course,
22:30
Speaker 1: Like if you don't know anything, like you know, you'd
22:32
Speaker 1: be thinking like, of course the Packers are undefeated. You
22:35
Speaker 1: would not say, of course the Bucks are, or the
22:36
Speaker 1: Bay or the Bengals are the Broncos are Miami or
22:40
Speaker 1: Miami is another two and o team that kind of
22:42
Speaker 1: might get forgotten a little. But seriously, the Bengals, the Broncos, Miami,
22:48
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Are you kidding me? If you would say
22:51
Speaker 1: if you would have said Miami is going to be
22:53
Speaker 1: in first place after two weeks, I mean you would
22:55
Speaker 1: have gotten some side eyed Look. Yeah, what are you
22:59
Speaker 1: supposed to do with a gambler in this situation? I
23:02
Speaker 1: don't trust any of these teams yet, but like the
23:04
Speaker 1: but the truth is, the Bangals have looked amazing. Their
23:08
Speaker 1: defense is really good. The Dolphins have looked really good.
23:12
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill has not sort of missed a step, so
23:15
Speaker 1: to speak, since he came back from that knee injury. Like,
23:19
Speaker 1: these are good teams. Yeah? Yeah, who have you power
23:25
Speaker 1: rated and adjusted the most in uh in these first
23:30
Speaker 1: few weeks? Buccaneers? Yeah, the next game is Tennessee in Jacksonville?
23:36
Speaker 1: Do you have a line up for this game? We
23:38
Speaker 1: don't know. Um, you know, at one point we're looking
23:42
Speaker 1: at U six and a half seven on Jacksonville. But
23:45
Speaker 1: uh with I mean Marcus Mariotta questionable, Leonard for Net questionable.
23:49
Speaker 1: So too many unknowns here yet. I will tell you
23:52
Speaker 1: that at Fantasy s D one asked Jaguars Titans how
23:58
Speaker 1: big of a letdown spot for the Jags last week
24:01
Speaker 1: was their Super Bowl. Do you feel like, once you
24:04
Speaker 1: post a line, will let down be in play? Will it?
24:08
Speaker 1: Will you factor that into the points? Bread? You know,
24:11
Speaker 1: if they were playing another team besides Tennessee, maybe, But uh,
24:15
Speaker 1: I don't think as a a six and a half
24:18
Speaker 1: point favor, I don't think there's a letdown factor here. Okay,
24:21
Speaker 1: it's fair fair to ask. Uh, let's see this is
24:25
Speaker 1: oh we talked about it a little bit. Minnesota Vikings
24:29
Speaker 1: sixteen and a half play a favorite over the Buffalo Bills.
24:31
Speaker 1: They're getting all the money, they're getting all the bets.
24:34
Speaker 1: Have the wise guys played this at all? Uh No,
24:38
Speaker 1: they really haven't. Everything's all just Parley money and uh
24:43
Speaker 1: kind of recreational bettors lay in the sixteen. Um, I
24:47
Speaker 1: would imagine if we went to seventeen there we might
24:49
Speaker 1: get a couple of bites. Um there's not too many
24:54
Speaker 1: seven teams out there. I'm not sure if too many
24:56
Speaker 1: other places have it, But um, I probably wouldn't hurt
25:00
Speaker 1: us to go to seventeen. In the next couple of days,
25:03
Speaker 1: I might want to take a take, take a couple
25:05
Speaker 1: of bets, But uh, I think seventeen once we go,
25:08
Speaker 1: there will be uh, we'll be solid at seventeen. Do
25:11
Speaker 1: you think the wise guys will come in at seventeen
25:13
Speaker 1: at plus seventeen? Yeah, I mean, but the fact that
25:16
Speaker 1: they haven't taken sixteen and a half means that they
25:19
Speaker 1: want they want no part of the Bills. And the
25:21
Speaker 1: only reason they would take seventeen is maybe they laid
25:24
Speaker 1: a real short number. Um, maybe early on or some
25:28
Speaker 1: some sports books that take action two or three weeks
25:32
Speaker 1: in advance on certain games, because this line would have been,
25:35
Speaker 1: you know, somewhere in the neighborhood of the Vikings, you know,
25:37
Speaker 1: eight and a half or nine if you'd have made
25:39
Speaker 1: the line, uh, you know, three weeks ago. So the
25:42
Speaker 1: people that are taking seventeen might be middling or something
25:45
Speaker 1: like that. The Bills are gonna be one of those
25:48
Speaker 1: teams that when they play the Patriots, what is that
25:52
Speaker 1: line going to be? Well, not much higher. I mean,
25:55
Speaker 1: the Vikings are right there on par with the Patriots,
25:58
Speaker 1: So um, it's gonna be about seventeen as well. Yeah,
26:02
Speaker 1: but you're gonna have to bump that line up a
26:03
Speaker 1: little bit because the Patriots still gets somewhere from our
26:05
Speaker 1: money than the Vikings. They are the most public of
26:08
Speaker 1: public teams. I don't want to tell you how to
26:10
Speaker 1: do your job. I don't want to tell your business,
26:12
Speaker 1: but you are anyway, that's what I do. Some people
26:16
Speaker 1: would I would say that's me being a leader. Other
26:19
Speaker 1: people would say that's me being annoying a little bit.
26:23
Speaker 1: Where do you stand on that? I stand a little
26:25
Speaker 1: favor of the annoying a little bit. I had a
26:28
Speaker 1: call today where one of the guys who works at
26:31
Speaker 1: the Action Network, he said, I believe the quote was
26:37
Speaker 1: someone was giving me a compliment about something. I believe
26:40
Speaker 1: I had predicted that, like I think the world series
26:42
Speaker 1: could be the Astros and the Braves. And it was
26:44
Speaker 1: Paul Duca and he was complimenting me on that. And
26:46
Speaker 1: he's like, wow, you might have been spot on when
26:48
Speaker 1: that was at thirty five two one, you could have
26:50
Speaker 1: had that. And Uh, one of the guys who works
26:55
Speaker 1: at Action Network who sort of oversees our day to
26:58
Speaker 1: day editorial, Um, he is disgusted by me, and UH
27:05
Speaker 1: does not like when anyone compliments me. And when I
27:08
Speaker 1: was getting complimented, and I of course took that in
27:11
Speaker 1: the humble, uh, the way that I take compliments and
27:16
Speaker 1: sort of just brushed it off and was like, you know,
27:19
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes I yet one right, blind squirrel finds
27:21
Speaker 1: and that kind of thing, because of course that's my attitude.
27:25
Speaker 1: We know, I'm kidding. Um. His response was, I can't
27:32
Speaker 1: say anything right now because it would probably get me fired.
27:38
Speaker 1: That's how much she wanted to That's how much he
27:40
Speaker 1: wanted to rip me. That's how much. That's pretty strong. Yeah,
27:43
Speaker 1: that's big. That's good, right, That's the kind of that
27:48
Speaker 1: is the kind of passion I can invite. Yeah. Wow, Yeah.
27:58
Speaker 1: Does anyone ever listen Jake Ever said, as Jake Ever
28:01
Speaker 1: said to you, I can't even comment because would get
28:04
Speaker 1: me fired. No, he's never said that, not to my face.
28:08
Speaker 1: He might say, I'm gonna have to ask him. He
28:10
Speaker 1: might say it when when I'm not out of the office.
28:14
Speaker 1: Do you know what that makes me think? Then you're
28:15
Speaker 1: not trying hard enough. You're not showing how much you care, scooch.
28:21
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Chiefs minus five and a
28:23
Speaker 1: half against the San Francisco forty niners five and a half?
28:28
Speaker 1: Where just where is it five and a half? Uh?
28:31
Speaker 1: I don't know where is it? Where is it not? Five?
28:34
Speaker 1: Six and a half, six and a half. I'm sorry,
28:36
Speaker 1: I'm at seven. I'm at seven on the game. Wow seven,
28:41
Speaker 1: and it's all this this game. Let me let me
28:44
Speaker 1: just make sure before I say that. Yeah, yeah, this
28:47
Speaker 1: game has the biggest disparity of any other game on
28:51
Speaker 1: the board. More in other words, more tickets. It's at
28:54
Speaker 1: a ten to one clip right now with us tend
28:59
Speaker 1: to tend take down the Chiefs to every one on
29:01
Speaker 1: the forty niners. And we opened six and a half.
29:03
Speaker 1: We took a couple of big bets at minus six
29:05
Speaker 1: and a half, we went to seven even money, and
29:08
Speaker 1: now we're at seven minus oh five, so all Chiefs
29:13
Speaker 1: and and we adjusted the Chiefs, I mean we we
29:17
Speaker 1: we liked the Chiefs, and we talked a little bit
29:19
Speaker 1: about them last week, and I really felt I wasn't
29:22
Speaker 1: surprised at all, uh that they beat the Steelers. Um.
29:26
Speaker 1: We talked about him last week and the last couple
29:29
Speaker 1: of weeks. UM, But uh, I didn't expect it to
29:33
Speaker 1: go as high as seven. I don't know about the
29:35
Speaker 1: Chiefs and minus seven. Would you say that they're the
29:37
Speaker 1: team you adjusted for the second most after the Bucks? Yeah, Well,
29:44
Speaker 1: I'm let me see, let me look at it. Uh,
29:47
Speaker 1: you know, we had them rated pretty high, you know
29:50
Speaker 1: to begin with, so um, we really we really adjusted
29:55
Speaker 1: them after week week one, but we didn't adjust them
29:59
Speaker 1: too much after a week two because we already have them,
30:02
Speaker 1: uh pretty well adjusted. But uh, but we have them
30:05
Speaker 1: ranked ranked pretty high. So uh they're they're among the
30:09
Speaker 1: top teams that we have ranked. I'm in this crazy
30:12
Speaker 1: fun uh NFL season long betting pool with three other
30:18
Speaker 1: friends and there's a decent sized buy in, and you
30:24
Speaker 1: each get to choose eight teams to win the super Bowl,
30:28
Speaker 1: and whichever one of those teams wins, you win the
30:30
Speaker 1: whole pot. And it's like a snake draft. So like
30:33
Speaker 1: someone goes first, second, third, fourth, and then that fourth
30:36
Speaker 1: person goes fifth, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So with the first pick,
30:39
Speaker 1: I took the Green Bay Packers, and then I took
30:42
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The third pick I wanted to take,
30:45
Speaker 1: I had like the eleven tick. I wanted to take
30:49
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and um, someone offered me a trade. They said,
30:53
Speaker 1: I will give you my pick later in the draft,
30:58
Speaker 1: like right after yours, if you give me yours. And
31:01
Speaker 1: so then I was going to have like, instead of
31:04
Speaker 1: having the eleventh pick, I was going to have like
31:07
Speaker 1: five picks thirteen through nineteen. And I did the calculations.
31:11
Speaker 1: I had like six teams I still liked, and the
31:13
Speaker 1: Chiefs were one of them, but they were Chiefs were
31:14
Speaker 1: the one I wanted the most, and I took the
31:16
Speaker 1: shot that like, the Chiefs would be there one pick later.
31:20
Speaker 1: This person came in and took the Chiefs. Killed me
31:24
Speaker 1: because now every time I see them winning, I'm like,
31:26
Speaker 1: I could have had the Chiefs in this pool and
31:30
Speaker 1: made a huge, huge mistake, huge mistake. I think. I
31:35
Speaker 1: think after that, I think I went with the Broncos
31:38
Speaker 1: and then like the Giants. I can't even remember, Like
31:41
Speaker 1: my head was spinning because like I was so throttled
31:44
Speaker 1: by the fact that I wasn't gonna get the Chiefs
31:46
Speaker 1: because my my I just mismanaged my draft. Yeah no, Giants, Wow,
31:52
Speaker 1: you were until It's not a good not a good
31:55
Speaker 1: move for me. The Indianapolis Colts. I liked, liked this game.
32:01
Speaker 1: I don't like it anymore. This game opened at six
32:04
Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's at six. Where are you at?
32:08
Speaker 1: We're at six on the game. We bounced back and
32:11
Speaker 1: forth a couple of times six six and a half,
32:13
Speaker 1: still waiting. Uh, you know, Jed Gies is doubtful for
32:17
Speaker 1: the Eagles, but we're waiting to see if if WinCE
32:21
Speaker 1: Is is going to be the starter in this one.
32:23
Speaker 1: He's been upgraded to probable and it's not gonna make
32:27
Speaker 1: a huge, huge difference in the line, but uh, public
32:31
Speaker 1: perception may make sway. So if he if he's in,
32:34
Speaker 1: well we'll go back to six and a half and
32:36
Speaker 1: maybe even seven even money. But again here, uh you know,
32:41
Speaker 1: we probably have the cult ranked a little higher than
32:43
Speaker 1: the general public thinks. Uh. The that first game against
32:48
Speaker 1: the Bengals, now that we both admit that the Bengals
32:52
Speaker 1: really are a good team. Uh, that loss against the
32:55
Speaker 1: Bengal doesn't look like a bad loss for for Indianapolis. Um,
32:58
Speaker 1: I think they can keep this game close. Uh, Philadelphia
33:02
Speaker 1: show that they could be very vulnerable. So I think
33:05
Speaker 1: that's a lot of points in this one. I do too.
33:08
Speaker 1: I love the I love the Colts in this game. Uh.
33:14
Speaker 1: I love the Colts even if Carson Wentz is playing. Yeah, yeah,
33:20
Speaker 1: I do too. I mean this is this is one
33:23
Speaker 1: of those games that I was talking about earlier that
33:25
Speaker 1: that would surprise a lot of people that you know,
33:28
Speaker 1: they would talk about it the day after and say,
33:30
Speaker 1: I never saw it coming, but I wouldn't be surprised
33:33
Speaker 1: if the Colts win this game. Miami three point favorite
33:39
Speaker 1: over the Oakland Raiders. Right now, that number has moved down.
33:43
Speaker 1: Money coming in on the Dolphins. I'm sorry the Uh yeah,
33:48
Speaker 1: both the money and the UM tickets are coming in
33:53
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins. I mean, you're not why why is
33:55
Speaker 1: the line moving? They're coming in on the Raiders. We
33:58
Speaker 1: have we have money coming in on the Raiders. That's
34:00
Speaker 1: what I thought. Yeah, I'm looking at this around. You
34:02
Speaker 1: have money coming in the Raiders. That's why the line
34:04
Speaker 1: has moved. That's why I was confessed. Yeah, so we've
34:07
Speaker 1: we why they think it's surprised. This one surprises me too.
34:12
Speaker 1: I said, we have the Dolphins, you know, ranked pretty high.
34:16
Speaker 1: Uh at last week, you know, looking at that line
34:19
Speaker 1: against the Jets, we knew that that line was wrong.
34:22
Speaker 1: Looking at this one, I felt like this line was right.
34:24
Speaker 1: I I fought three and a half on the UM.
34:28
Speaker 1: Three and a half on the Dolphins was the right number.
34:30
Speaker 1: The professional betters, though, feel otherwise they just came in
34:34
Speaker 1: they just hammered the Raiders. Uh, down to down to three. Um,
34:39
Speaker 1: the public is still on the Raiders at probably about
34:43
Speaker 1: a one and a half to one ratio. Not overwhelming,
34:46
Speaker 1: but uh, it's nothing. Nothing I saw in both Raiders games,
34:52
Speaker 1: Uh would would make me want to, uh, you know,
34:54
Speaker 1: adjust them to where I would want to bet them
34:57
Speaker 1: over the Dolphins in this one. So, UM, I think
35:01
Speaker 1: we're okay needing the Dolphins. I don't understand this, Like,
35:05
Speaker 1: the Raiders are terrible. The Raiders are giving up six
35:08
Speaker 1: yards per play on defense. What could they possibly be
35:12
Speaker 1: seeing that makes them think that the Raiders are the
35:15
Speaker 1: right side in that game? The Dolphins are giving up
35:18
Speaker 1: five point four yards to play on defense, like they're
35:21
Speaker 1: a better team all the way around. Yeah, I mean
35:24
Speaker 1: the Raiders played. It's funny. They look like they played
35:27
Speaker 1: two games where they played the first half and they
35:31
Speaker 1: looked actually pretty good in both first halfs and they
35:34
Speaker 1: looked horrible in both games in both second halves. So
35:37
Speaker 1: maybe it's a matter of adjustments, or maybe it's a
35:40
Speaker 1: matter of groot and not making adjustments at halftime. But
35:43
Speaker 1: but two weeks in a row, Uh, they look like
35:46
Speaker 1: two different teams in the first half and second half.
35:50
Speaker 1: It's weird. Man, I'm walking away from that game. It's
35:53
Speaker 1: not about that game then doesn't pass the sniff test,
35:56
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying. I'd have to take the
35:58
Speaker 1: Dolphins in that one. If you made me, if you
36:01
Speaker 1: made me bet that one, well at the end of
36:03
Speaker 1: the show, I do make you bet, so we'll see
36:05
Speaker 1: what happens. I was teeing it up. Yeah, New York
36:08
Speaker 1: Giants Houston Texans. Is it possible for neither team to
36:11
Speaker 1: cover in this game? Because uh, the numbers moved to
36:15
Speaker 1: to to Texans minus six. It opened at three. UM.
36:19
Speaker 1: I have been on both of these teams the first
36:21
Speaker 1: two weeks and been burned both weeks. I obviously have
36:25
Speaker 1: the Giants in one super Bowl pool. I have a
36:27
Speaker 1: futures ticket on the Texans for the Super Bowl. UM.
36:32
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do. I don't know what
36:34
Speaker 1: to do. Like the Giants were, we were really really
36:38
Speaker 1: high on this team going going into the season, and
36:41
Speaker 1: we gave them a pass on the first week loss
36:43
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville because we know Jacksonville really is a good team,
36:47
Speaker 1: and so that loss didn't look as bad. The Giants
36:49
Speaker 1: had a couple of chances to to actually win that game.
36:52
Speaker 1: So it wasn't a terrible loss against Jacksonville, but to
36:56
Speaker 1: follow it up with just laying just an egg against
36:59
Speaker 1: the cow Boys, they just looked Actually, both teams didn't
37:03
Speaker 1: look look really sharp, but but the Giants did not
37:06
Speaker 1: look good at all. We we were forced to just
37:08
Speaker 1: make the adjustment on them, uh reluctantly, because we were
37:12
Speaker 1: really high on them going into the season, as we're
37:14
Speaker 1: a lot of people. But uh, again, here's maybe a
37:17
Speaker 1: team that needs just a few more games under their
37:19
Speaker 1: belt to to start jelling as a team, you know,
37:22
Speaker 1: working with a new coaching staff, new offense, new new schemes. Uh,
37:27
Speaker 1: maybe it just takes a few few games. But uh,
37:30
Speaker 1: the public doesn't have the patience for that. So uh,
37:32
Speaker 1: this this will be one of the games very few
37:35
Speaker 1: people bet on. It's one of the least bet games
37:37
Speaker 1: on the board right now. Expectations were too high for
37:40
Speaker 1: both of these teams, and now people who bet them,
37:43
Speaker 1: such as I, are reaping what they sewed. Yeah, there
37:47
Speaker 1: was a big move. There was a big move on
37:50
Speaker 1: the Texans last week right before game time. Um, this
37:54
Speaker 1: big better from the from the Midwest that that comes
37:57
Speaker 1: out four or five times a year and bread some
38:00
Speaker 1: money around a lot of the big properties. Uh. He
38:04
Speaker 1: came in on the Houston Texans right before game time
38:07
Speaker 1: against Tennessee and drove that line up to up to
38:11
Speaker 1: three and uh. But but outside of that, I just
38:14
Speaker 1: wanted to bring that up because it was kind of
38:16
Speaker 1: odd that, uh, somebody would like the Texans as as
38:19
Speaker 1: much as as much as that syndicate. No, no, no,
38:26
Speaker 1: he's kind of a well known, well known better that
38:28
Speaker 1: comes in and uh, BET's really big, but he's he's
38:33
Speaker 1: not a professional better, but his plays are pretty sharp.
38:36
Speaker 1: You know. He wins more often than he loses, and
38:39
Speaker 1: he does it sporadically. So when when this money came in,
38:42
Speaker 1: the line moved, it just jumped and uh and it
38:46
Speaker 1: unfortunately for him it lost, and fortunately for the lot
38:48
Speaker 1: of a lot of the books, it won. How much
38:50
Speaker 1: would I have to bet to move a line me personally?
38:56
Speaker 1: What would you have to bet? How much? You know?
38:58
Speaker 1: How much money? You know? What I know? You know?
39:00
Speaker 1: I don't know anybody, you know, I barely know anything.
39:03
Speaker 1: Um so, but yet I tend to win more than
39:09
Speaker 1: I lose, and I tend to know the markets, and
39:11
Speaker 1: I tend to have a pretty good read on what
39:14
Speaker 1: the best of the line is and where the opportunities
39:17
Speaker 1: might be. So how much do I have to bet
39:20
Speaker 1: to move the line? Anything less than twenty? Unless it's
39:26
Speaker 1: I wouldn't move it on less than twenty, I would
39:29
Speaker 1: have to bet more than That's how little respect you
39:31
Speaker 1: have for me? Bet more than twenty dollars on the
39:36
Speaker 1: NFL if you bet a total, if you bet, if
39:38
Speaker 1: you if you bet a couple of thousand on a total,
39:40
Speaker 1: I'd move it. What is what is the least amount
39:45
Speaker 1: someone needs to bet? Who is really sharp? Like the
39:49
Speaker 1: sharpest guy you know comes in, Yeah, I moved on
39:52
Speaker 1: a thousand dollars. You moved on a thousand dollars. Yeah.
39:55
Speaker 1: I mean when when there's certain people that I do
39:58
Speaker 1: know that when they bet, I move it, regardless of
40:02
Speaker 1: I mean when they bet, if they just bet a thousand,
40:04
Speaker 1: I move it. I'm not going to be one of
40:06
Speaker 1: those people unless you're betting for someone else. I don't know,
40:13
Speaker 1: you know, I saw. I take that back. Here here's
40:15
Speaker 1: the deal. If there's if if we're the only let's
40:18
Speaker 1: say we're at five and a half on a game,
40:20
Speaker 1: and everyone in town is at four and a half
40:22
Speaker 1: and you come in and you bet six thousand dollars
40:26
Speaker 1: at plus five and a half, I'd move it. But
40:30
Speaker 1: if everybody was at three on a game and we
40:32
Speaker 1: were at three and you laid minus three for ten thousand,
40:36
Speaker 1: I wouldn't move it. I don't want your charity. Okay.
40:44
Speaker 1: The way you said it was like, here's the way
40:46
Speaker 1: you said it was like, here's what I'm gonna do.
40:48
Speaker 1: Here's what I mean, here's what I'm gonna do for you.
40:52
Speaker 1: Here's here's the offer I'm going to give you. If
40:56
Speaker 1: you want to put six times down in a game
41:00
Speaker 1: game when our number is way off, I'll move the
41:02
Speaker 1: number for you. I would do that basically what you
41:06
Speaker 1: just said to me, You patmian Head, you patam and
41:09
Speaker 1: they had You're like you're cute. Let's move on, all right.
41:12
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins are currently three point three point underdogs at
41:16
Speaker 1: home against the Packers. I don't know, ma'am, I don't know.
41:21
Speaker 1: This feels like I might have to side with the
41:24
Speaker 1: Redskins on this. They are creeping into that. Too much money,
41:27
Speaker 1: too many tickets, too many publics on the Packers on
41:31
Speaker 1: a road favorite. Yeah, and and the public is so
41:35
Speaker 1: fickle because the public just loves the packers, loves the packers,
41:38
Speaker 1: and until the packers, you know, disappoint him a couple
41:41
Speaker 1: of times, and then all of a sudden, they don't
41:43
Speaker 1: love the Packers anymore, and now they love the Redskins. Uh.
41:48
Speaker 1: The sharp guys were on this one. We opened three
41:51
Speaker 1: flat and they took plus three um blade minus one
41:55
Speaker 1: ten for substantial amount. We moved it to minus three
42:00
Speaker 1: even money and uh so, but the ticket account is
42:03
Speaker 1: about five to one Packers to Redskins, so still still
42:08
Speaker 1: a larger ticket account, but the big money is on
42:11
Speaker 1: the Redskins. So just like the sharp guy you are,
42:14
Speaker 1: you're right with them on this one. I'm gonna put
42:18
Speaker 1: on the Redskins and then I'll move it. You'll move
42:25
Speaker 1: it to to place two and a half. Yeah, yeah, um,
42:30
Speaker 1: all right? Uh what did I want to say? Oh?
42:33
Speaker 1: The charges in the Rams. Yeah, this is actually the
42:36
Speaker 1: most interesting game on the board. We have more money
42:39
Speaker 1: on this game than any other game, and most of
42:43
Speaker 1: it's most of its wise guy money. Two different camps
42:46
Speaker 1: of of of people that were betting the Rams early
42:50
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, and then the the chart the Chargers
42:54
Speaker 1: early on Monday morning. And the odd thing about this that,
43:00
Speaker 1: you know, the one question mark here is is Todd Gurley. Uh,
43:04
Speaker 1: and he's still uh, he's still listed as as questionable.
43:08
Speaker 1: But the money on the Rams came in when Gurley
43:12
Speaker 1: was listed as questionable, and then when he was upgraded
43:16
Speaker 1: to probable, that's when the Chargers money came in. So
43:20
Speaker 1: just the opposite of what you would imagine. But uh,
43:23
Speaker 1: just heavily bet game. Um. We've been at minus seven
43:28
Speaker 1: most of the time, although we did take a few
43:31
Speaker 1: bets at uh, um minus six and a half, just briefly,
43:35
Speaker 1: but most of the bets rep minus seven and plus seven.
43:39
Speaker 1: Why do you it's interesting that they're on both sides. Yeah. Now,
43:44
Speaker 1: the public obviously is just all one way on this one.
43:46
Speaker 1: The Rams at this I mean, we're gonna end up
43:49
Speaker 1: needing the charges on this one. But I'm just trying
43:51
Speaker 1: to trying to figure out who the people on the
43:55
Speaker 1: Chargers were on this one that uh, you know, maybe
43:58
Speaker 1: they just felt that when we were at seven, there
44:00
Speaker 1: was a few six and a halfs and they were
44:02
Speaker 1: shopping for a number. Um. But by game day, Um,
44:06
Speaker 1: I mean, you're guaranteed to get at least a plus seven,
44:09
Speaker 1: if not higher. Well, I know who it is. Who's that?
44:14
Speaker 1: I can't tell you? Oh all right, the Chicago Bears
44:21
Speaker 1: five point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals. This game has
44:24
Speaker 1: already moved up to It opened at five, now it's
44:26
Speaker 1: at six. A lot of money coming in on the Bears. Um,
44:30
Speaker 1: a lot of tickets coming in. Money is about even. Yeah, yeah,
44:35
Speaker 1: this is one of the games. I wouldn't be surprised
44:37
Speaker 1: if if Arizona kept this one close. I mean there,
44:40
Speaker 1: they obviously looked horrible last week. Uh, but they're at home.
44:46
Speaker 1: The Bears are on a on a short week, they're
44:49
Speaker 1: laying six points on the road. Um. The Bears were
44:53
Speaker 1: another team that were made a big adjustment, uh from
44:57
Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. But that was mainly because
44:59
Speaker 1: of the Khalil Mactree. So he was a difference maker
45:01
Speaker 1: there obviously. But but this line is really a lot
45:06
Speaker 1: higher than it would have been a couple of weeks ago.
45:08
Speaker 1: So if there's any value at all, it's in the Cardinals.
45:11
Speaker 1: But you've got to have a lot of intestinal fortitude
45:13
Speaker 1: to put your money up on them. Seriously, Like, this
45:18
Speaker 1: is a spot where of course I would bet the Bears.
45:20
Speaker 1: I mean I bet bet the packer a bit that
45:23
Speaker 1: bet the car bet the Packers in this one. Yeah,
45:25
Speaker 1: I definitely bet. That's how sharp I am. Screwched and
45:28
Speaker 1: you would you would let me lay, You would let
45:30
Speaker 1: me put them on this and not move the line.
45:34
Speaker 1: Scooch give forty four please, you know that's what I
45:39
Speaker 1: would say. Um the uh, it's gonna be one of
45:43
Speaker 1: tho scenarios. You're gonna get into the right You're gonna
45:45
Speaker 1: have a huge road favorite getting eight percent of the action,
45:49
Speaker 1: and the Cardinals are going to be the right side
45:51
Speaker 1: and I'm not going to be able to do it. Yeah,
45:54
Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's the right side to do it.
45:56
Speaker 1: And that's why. And that's a difference when you talk
45:59
Speaker 1: about the distinction between professional betters and just kind of
46:02
Speaker 1: amateur recreational betters. Professional betters don't blink an eye when
46:06
Speaker 1: they get to a situation like this. If the number
46:09
Speaker 1: says to bet it, they bet it. They don't. Sometimes
46:11
Speaker 1: they don't even watch it. They don't bat an eye
46:14
Speaker 1: and uh. But you know, the people who kind of
46:16
Speaker 1: watch want to watch a game and and have some
46:19
Speaker 1: action on it. That's tough for them to bet make
46:21
Speaker 1: that kind of wager. Well, now I feel like you're
46:25
Speaker 1: challenging me and saying, if you were a professional, if
46:27
Speaker 1: you had yeah, if you had the stones yeah. Uh huh,
46:32
Speaker 1: well maybe I will scooch you, maybe I will yeah
46:36
Speaker 1: maybe Seattle and Dallas, boy, it's uh what is it
46:41
Speaker 1: like at one point game right now? Yep? And hardly
46:45
Speaker 1: any money either side on this one. Uh the ticket
46:48
Speaker 1: account is dead even, I mean dead even. Uh so
46:51
Speaker 1: that the betting public is divided in half. And uh
46:55
Speaker 1: not much I mean to too disappointing teams to teams that. Um,
47:00
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say people were expecting a whole lot from
47:03
Speaker 1: this year, but they were certainly expecting a lot more
47:05
Speaker 1: than they got from first two games from from both teams. Uh,
47:09
Speaker 1: Dallas got to win, Uh you know, looked okay but
47:13
Speaker 1: not great. Um. Seattle on the other hand, Uh, this
47:18
Speaker 1: is a rebuilding year. I mean they've got three guys
47:22
Speaker 1: on that team that were part of the Super Bowl
47:24
Speaker 1: team just a few years ago. That's it on that
47:26
Speaker 1: on that whole team. So, um, they're they're rebuilding and
47:30
Speaker 1: uh you know, there there wasn't a whole lot to
47:34
Speaker 1: take from from Monday Nights game. That's really encouraging with him.
47:38
Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting. If you had told me two years
47:41
Speaker 1: ago that the Cowboys and the Seahawks, no joke, they
47:44
Speaker 1: are the least bed game on the board right now
47:47
Speaker 1: by several thousand bets, Like every game has four to
47:52
Speaker 1: five times more bets than this game does. And that's
47:57
Speaker 1: astonishing to me, it really is. I mean, how how
48:02
Speaker 1: different teams kind of go through cycles. You know during
48:05
Speaker 1: that same time period. If you said the Charges in
48:07
Speaker 1: the Rams were the most heavily back game, uh, they
48:11
Speaker 1: would have been equally as surprised as you saying the
48:13
Speaker 1: Cowboys and Seahawks was the least back game. So uh,
48:16
Speaker 1: that's just hoew the difference a couple of years makes
48:19
Speaker 1: and a few personnel changes. Um, but I mean having
48:23
Speaker 1: said that, I mean it's still one of the profile
48:26
Speaker 1: games that the afternoon games. There's only three games, so
48:29
Speaker 1: they may get more attention than if it was stuck
48:31
Speaker 1: in there with nine other games in the morning show.
48:35
Speaker 1: But um uh right, and right now, just not a
48:38
Speaker 1: whole lot of action. That's life in the NFL. As
48:41
Speaker 1: they say, Scooge Yep, another one. I mean the New
48:45
Speaker 1: England Patriots getting eighty eight percent of the action, eighty
48:49
Speaker 1: nine percent of the money. They are six and a
48:51
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the lines, which means, uh, that
48:54
Speaker 1: line open at seven. So the wise guys have come
48:56
Speaker 1: in on Detroit. Um, what do you tell me? Yeah,
49:03
Speaker 1: I want to keep this high. I mean it's a
49:05
Speaker 1: it's the Sunday night game. So the the amount of
49:09
Speaker 1: action we're gonna get it is gonna be double triple
49:12
Speaker 1: what we get on the other games. The liability is
49:14
Speaker 1: gonna be big. You mentioned it's Patriots. I wouldn't mind
49:19
Speaker 1: taking some more Lions money. I just don't want to
49:22
Speaker 1: be I was hoping to get more at plus six
49:24
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't want to have to go
49:26
Speaker 1: to seven every time I want Lions money. UM. But uh,
49:31
Speaker 1: it looks like that's going to be the case. Uh,
49:33
Speaker 1: every time we want some more Lions money, we may
49:35
Speaker 1: have to just jump back and forth to to seven. Um.
49:39
Speaker 1: But the public doesn't want any part of the Lions.
49:44
Speaker 1: And even though the Patriots uh lost last week, you
49:48
Speaker 1: know that they're going to be coming in on them
49:50
Speaker 1: this week. Geez, Louise, I'm trying to be a professional
49:56
Speaker 1: here and take the Lions. I mean, this is another game. Yeah,
50:00
Speaker 1: it's it's another game. If you're getting six and a
50:02
Speaker 1: half points at home, Um, you're supposed to just take
50:05
Speaker 1: it automatically. I mean yeah, yeah, you just can't watch
50:10
Speaker 1: it though, No, I gotta hold your nose. And how
50:14
Speaker 1: many times are you talking about how many times the
50:16
Speaker 1: Patriots have have beaten you when you bet against him?
50:19
Speaker 1: But how many times are the Patriots lost two in
50:21
Speaker 1: a row? Um? You know at some point, you know,
50:24
Speaker 1: the Brady is getting a lot older, so you can't
50:27
Speaker 1: kind of compare them to the Brady of yesteryears. But
50:30
Speaker 1: uh uh, coming off of a loss. You hate betting
50:34
Speaker 1: against the Patriots, right, hate it? This is a great one.
50:43
Speaker 1: This is the This is how you end the podcast.
50:45
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers minus two at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers open
50:49
Speaker 1: to two. Now it's a one and a half. Money's
50:52
Speaker 1: coming in and the steaming in on the box? Steamen,
50:56
Speaker 1: Yeah Steamen really beamon So yeah, how much of you?
51:03
Speaker 1: How much have you changed the rating on the Bucks?
51:06
Speaker 1: They leap frogged eight teams, uh from where we had
51:10
Speaker 1: on the power rankings? Yeah, yeah, um, and they're right there.
51:15
Speaker 1: I mean there it was a huge difference. I mean
51:19
Speaker 1: just with the rating we had at the beginning of
51:22
Speaker 1: the year. We had two ratings, one with Winston and
51:25
Speaker 1: one with UH Fitzpatrick, and the rating with Fitzpatrick was
51:29
Speaker 1: was lower than with Jamis Winston. So we had to
51:31
Speaker 1: make some quick adjustments, UM and UH. And now they're
51:37
Speaker 1: higher with than if Jamie Winston were to come back
51:40
Speaker 1: next week, the line would actually be lower than with
51:43
Speaker 1: him out. So UM, it's uh, yeah, we've made some
51:49
Speaker 1: We've made some big adjustments. And then on the other side,
51:51
Speaker 1: we had to make some adjustment on the Steelers after
51:55
Speaker 1: after last week, not a big adjustment, so I won't
51:58
Speaker 1: say even though the Steelers UH didn't play well for
52:02
Speaker 1: the last two weeks, last week wasn't as big of
52:05
Speaker 1: a surprise as Week one. Week one was the week
52:07
Speaker 1: where we felt that they uh really just didn't play well. UM.
52:12
Speaker 1: Last week we just felt they were going up against
52:14
Speaker 1: a good team in the Chief, so we didn't adjust
52:16
Speaker 1: them that much. So all the adjustment came on the Buccaneers.
52:19
Speaker 1: But this line was gonna be four and a half
52:22
Speaker 1: to five and a half UH if you made the
52:25
Speaker 1: line two weeks ago, so we thought opening three, we
52:29
Speaker 1: knew that all the money was going to come in
52:31
Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers from the public. UH just didn't realize
52:34
Speaker 1: just how much though, So it wasn't a big surprise.
52:37
Speaker 1: We we opened UH three plus a nickel, which means
52:41
Speaker 1: we wanted somebody that was betting the Buccaneers to lay
52:44
Speaker 1: minus one if they were taking the three points, which
52:48
Speaker 1: they did, went down to two and a half, and
52:50
Speaker 1: then quickly moved from two and a half to one
52:52
Speaker 1: and a half, and now we're at one. And right now,
52:55
Speaker 1: when you're in that nebulous area of plus one one
52:58
Speaker 1: side or the other side, we can move. You know,
53:02
Speaker 1: I can move the Steelers minus one to the Buccaneers
53:05
Speaker 1: minus one in one bet. We may skip the pickum move.
53:08
Speaker 1: We don't have to move in one point increments. So
53:12
Speaker 1: this is an area where you may see a lot
53:14
Speaker 1: of line movement. And I wouldn't be surprised if you
53:17
Speaker 1: if the Buccaneers end up a small favorite. If I
53:22
Speaker 1: came in and bet twenty dollars in this game on
53:25
Speaker 1: the Steelers, would you move on the box? Would you
53:29
Speaker 1: move them to minus two? I wouldn't move to minus two.
53:35
Speaker 1: Right now, the bucks are plus one, so have you
53:37
Speaker 1: bet twenty thousand on them? I'd move them probably to
53:39
Speaker 1: minus one. What if I bet a hundred thousand, I
53:45
Speaker 1: just don't move it to minus one two. I can't
53:50
Speaker 1: move it to minus two because then if somebody, if
53:53
Speaker 1: if somebody bets the other side for a hundred thousand,
53:55
Speaker 1: and then it falls Buccaneers minus win by one point,
53:58
Speaker 1: we lose everything. So no, do you know it's not
54:01
Speaker 1: it's gonna bet the other side. Well again, that's probably
54:06
Speaker 1: why I wouldn't move it, because it would be a
54:08
Speaker 1: good move for you to bet the other side. You
54:11
Speaker 1: only lose ten thousand, and you have a shot to
54:14
Speaker 1: win both more more. I'd have to shot to win more. Exactly.
54:26
Speaker 1: I would like a line of credit at the Orleans
54:28
Speaker 1: for five dollars? Please can you facilitate that? I can
54:33
Speaker 1: lead you to the credit department and then they can
54:36
Speaker 1: facilitate it. They're gonna have to check your background and uh,
54:41
Speaker 1: look at some they need some collateral. You need something
54:43
Speaker 1: to put up. Don't they know who I am? Don't
54:46
Speaker 1: they listen to the podcast? What is there? I slapped down?
54:51
Speaker 1: I would slap down and iPhone and say you want
54:55
Speaker 1: to do a background check, listen to this and that's it.
54:59
Speaker 1: That's what I would do. Wow, that works. And they
55:03
Speaker 1: would say, they would say how much money can we
55:06
Speaker 1: give you? Mr? Milman? Yeah, they would just open up
55:12
Speaker 1: the vault. Are you disgusted with me? Do you want
55:16
Speaker 1: to say something? Now? I can possibly get you fired?
55:19
Speaker 1: All right? Scared? Guess what time it is? Scooch Roulette.
55:29
Speaker 1: No one's gonna like this one. But the Steelers. Oh wow, yeah, wow,
55:43
Speaker 1: Steelers over the Steelers I have If I'm saying I
55:48
Speaker 1: made him like three and a half and it was
55:50
Speaker 1: gonna make them even higher? How can I not? How
55:53
Speaker 1: can I not lay one? I like the Indianapolis Colts. Yeah, yeah,
56:02
Speaker 1: straight up on the money line. Now, I'll take the
56:07
Speaker 1: mont I'll take the points. That's what we're doing with
56:12
Speaker 1: though you're taking the Steelers, I'm taking the Colts. This
56:17
Speaker 1: has been the Favorites podcast. I am Chad Moleman of
56:22
Speaker 1: the Action Network. He is Bob Scucci of the Your Leans.
56:26
Speaker 1: You can listen to the podcast. You can download the podcast.
56:30
Speaker 1: You you can subscribe, you can rate, you can review.
56:34
Speaker 1: Listen to our next episode. On Friday, Me and Blackjack
56:38
Speaker 1: are gonna go at each other trying to come up
56:40
Speaker 1: with five games that we love to win one point
56:43
Speaker 1: four a million dollars in the Super Contest. Thank you
56:47
Speaker 1: for listening. Until next time,