Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / I warned you THIS would happen… + Stock Market News 27 March 2024

Transcript

I warned you THIS would happen… + Stock Market News 27 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, and we're slightly in chaos here today, but in a good way.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Lots of stuff happening.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Now, what is actually happening in the market?
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: We have got something that happened yesterday and the day before, but more so yesterday evening.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I suspect it'll happen again tonight and tomorrow night, and I warned you about that on Sunday.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through that again for those of you who weren't paying attention on Sunday.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: You know very, very naughty.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: And we've got Neo News, we've got bridges collapsing, we've got lots of things happening here.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: The NVIDIA-Apple war is kicked off and much, much more.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: We will, of course, also answer all of your questions, and by we I mean me and my fuzzy troop here.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: None of this financial advice, just an old banker sharing what he loves, because otherwise I'd be sitting here on my own doing my own research, doing my own trades, and it's a lot more fun with you here.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: So I appreciate you tuning in Now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Should we get straight into it?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I think we probably should.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Howdy, good morning everybody.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Let me show when did I go?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Here I am.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I'm still on the chat.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Webinar isn't tonight actually.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, we'll take that away.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I do have an explanation of this for you, by the way, and you can download that.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Let me find the link for it.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Oh, here it is.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I'll put it on the screen for you too, because this is a phenomenon that's got to do with two things.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: One is quarter end adjustments.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I know it sounds sexy, but there it is.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Can we type that in here?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we can.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: You can download a full walkthrough document explanation of this at felixfrenzorg.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Slash quarter like the coin.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: It's for quarter end and it's completely free of charge.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So get your hands on the research.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: The big funds, the pension funds, at the end of every quarter, adjust their holdings, and it's a really important thing to understand.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I warned about this on Friday.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And why do they do that?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Well, say they have a 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Just to keep the maths really simple, if that's their portfolio, what's just happened in the last quarter?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Well, stocks have gone up and therefore, say they now hold 62% stocks and bonds have gone down.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So they hold only 38% bonds.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: What are they going to do?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: What's the logical conclusion?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: To rebalance.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: You sell stocks and you buy bonds, and it's a fair amount.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs estimates that just their customers are doing about $35 billion worth before the end of the quarter is tomorrow and, given that it's Easter week also, the market is quieter.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: There's less trading volume, why?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Well, all the respectable bankers are already in the Hamptons or the Bahamas or, you know, cayman or somewhere snorting substances and, you know, enjoying bunga bunga parties like the Italians, and therefore it actually has a bigger impact because there's less trading volume.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: And this is a lovely chart If you really care about the details.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: It basically shows you the rebalancing flows into the S&P and quarterly they've been negative of late.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Why have they been negative?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Because the market goes up.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So it's something to think about.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: For the last couple of trades of every quarter, all you got to do is basically look at have we gone up or down this quarter and you know which way it's going to go.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And they will always trade in the last half hour of the day.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: That's just the way these guys trade.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Any idea why I would be denied access to documents?
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: As Mike, this particular document let me check must have something to do with your passport or something.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Kidding, let me see.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Let me see.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: There it is.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: You should have access to it.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Everybody should have access to it.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Here it is.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: I can see you guys in it already.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: We did have a document out yesterday and the link broke.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: That might be the one you're referring to, mike.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So ping me a comment in that video and we'll reply to it and we'll post you the new link.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: There was something funky going on with that link for some reason.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that's a slight side story, so it's an important thing to understand.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: A slight side story, so it's an important thing to understand.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: We've also got CTAs.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Now, I actually don't think the CTAs, which are the algo funds, the impact is going to be that great, because the market's pretty much going sideways.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And what do I mean by going sideways?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Well, have a look at R.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: What's the market?
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Basically?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: The market is basically NVIDIA.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Let me just get rid of a few things here and actually let me have a look at the S&P.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: It's probably easier.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: And we're kind of going sideways right this week here.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it'll have a big impact.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: And the problem that we have is basically NVIDIA.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: It's gone up, it's gone down, it's gone up.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: It Problem that we have is basically Nvidia it's gone up, it's gone down, it's gone up, it's gone down again.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of a little bit directionless.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit ratherless.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: It's making another stab today, but the 950 is too much for it and therefore the whole market is fairly just going sideways.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: And can you make money out of that?
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, of course you can.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: We intend to.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So yesterday we sold off a bit, today we bounce off a bit.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So we're just doing this little mini zigzag game, kind of moving sideways.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Tesla recovering quite nicely 193.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Did you see our trade on that?
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Are you part of our email newsletter?
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: If you're not, you missed out on a really good trade there.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Tesla, that's working out very nicely and yeah, out on a really good trade there.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Tesla, that's uh, that's working out very nicely and uh, yeah, let's get back to the the story and let me talk about anything else.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Neo just emailed me this today and they basically are saying prudently adjust its first quarter delivery outlooks.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: No, really companies use the word prudently.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: They usually're.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Usually, you know.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: They expect to deliver approximately 30,000 vehicles in the first quarter, revised in the previous outlook of 31,000 to 33,000 vehicles.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: So it's definitely less than 31,000.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: It's not brilliant.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: There's 10,000 vehicles a month, but that is just the momentum right now.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Evs are a little bit less hot right now.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Economies are a little bit less hot right now.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Economies are a little bit less hot.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Right now, interest rates are definitely hotter.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So it is what it is.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: It is what it is and that's what I've been saying this now for a little while.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Right, but have a look at this.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: This is Nvidia versus Apple.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Nvidia has outperformed Apple since 2021 by a factor of 5x.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: That's staggering, isn't it?
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: And it's just going literally straight up to the moon.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: How long can that continue for?
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Do you think there'll be some mean reversion, as in?
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Apple will recover and maybe NVIDIA will take a chill pill for a bit.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Well, this is Apple, and Apple is just.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: It's at the support levels here.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It's just above around 169.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: It has to hold.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: If it doesn't, it's bad news.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: It goes to 144 or 145 or something like that.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So there is this big gap of nothingness really, here.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: There's a little bit of support here, but not a great deal, and the problem is that this here is the death cross, not the Easter cross.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: It's the death cross, and that's generally a very bearish indicator, and that's alive and kicking and is therefore a strange omen a few days before Easter.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: So I'd be a little cautious with that one.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick look at pre-market news what's moving the world?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Let's look at the US edition here, and Japan amps up intervention.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Pre-market news what's moving the world?
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Let's look at the US edition here, and Japan amps up intervention as yen hits the lowest since 1990.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Raising interest rates didn't really work out for them, did it?
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: We will take bold measures against excessive moves, apparently without ruling out any options, says Finance Minister Suzuki Okay.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Ship that crashed into Baltimore Bridge has a troubled.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Suzuki Okay Ship that crashed into a Baltimore bridge has a troubled history.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: It hit a stone wall in 2016.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It's a ship that's quite happily hit things.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I think six people died in that right.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: That's quite something.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Trump now has a 7 billion fortune but very little cash to show for it.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think you can sell those SPAC stocks for six months, so he's kind of locked in on that.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So his supporters have to hold those shares for six months and hope that they don't go down.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Julia, yeah, you're spot Snorting Easter chocolate.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, yes, exactly.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I mean cocoa is about as expensive as cocaine nowadays.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: You've seen the cocoa chart.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: That's the only other thing you could have invested in to outperform NVIDIA.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: I'm not kidding, this is cocoa, I kid you not.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Same percentage scale, that's NVIDIA.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Cocoa has outperformed NVIDIA by 70% over the last year.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: It's high over the last year, over the last five years.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's maybe a bit silly, but year to day it's a 40% outperformance compared to NVIDIA.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So who needs AI when you have the Easter bunny right?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, cocoa is definitely the thing to invest in right now.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Good morning, good afternoon.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: More copper People love chocolate.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure it's got everything.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's got anything to do with chocolate?
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Russell says so far, I have confirmed.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they put out the document confirming the deal.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that Noto spoke about it as well on CNBC not as much as I'm not a huge fan of CNBC is helpful.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: It's good that the CEO is out there.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I think the thing here is not really SoFi related.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I think it's this related FinTech.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, we can.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Did that work Actually, actually.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: No, you're right, actually so far is underperforming the fintech industry for once.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, surprising, quite significantly, actually.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So it is.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: It is a perceived so far problem.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I I don't really see where the issue is with with that bonditions that they did.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Now Hoots are out with a new gold-plated or at least gold-colored 3% reward card credit card, which is the same offer that SoFi already has.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: But they're marketing it really nicely.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: They're giving it a gold color and I think a lot of people are going to fall for that kind of mindless flex.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I keep getting offered gold cards.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I don't want them.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Why would I want a gold card to stand out Like oh, this guy's got money, let's nick his stuff.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: I'd rather not.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: I don't really get the point of it.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that's probably good for Robinhood.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: They're doing a very, very good marketing job.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: They must say Up 8% on that news.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: So it's, I mean, it's a meme stock, right, I really think it's a meme stock.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: It's trading on well.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I was going to say something polite there, but I'd rather not.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Let's step back from the Citadel legal ledge, shall we?
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Jack thinks we're going to buy jelly beans.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Quite possibly.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I hope Visa pops.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge deal.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Visa.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, they're obviously behind that credit card, like every other credit card.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think it moves the needle.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I just Visa is just too big a beast Visa has.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Do we have revenue numbers in here?
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 8.6 billion revenue a quarter, so I don't think a hood card is going to make a big difference there.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: How do you get access to the newsletter?
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Go to let me put it on the channel thing here.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think we put that link out often enough.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash sub.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I know you can't see that.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Make it blue.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: That's Substack as in sub for Substack, not the sandwich.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: You don't have to buy a foot and there's a free trial to it.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: There is also a premium tier to it and it's I would say it's very, very good.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: It's very, very rare that you actually get something that has some real insight and