Latest / Simply Bitcoin / $21.5T GIANT Just Sent a HUGE Bitcoin WARNING!!! | EP 1462

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$21.5T GIANT Just Sent a HUGE Bitcoin WARNING!!! | EP 1462 · Simply Bitcoin

0:01
So just when we thought there were no banks left to attack
0:05
Bitcoin, just a few hours ago, this morning we have a $21.5
0:11
trillion bank who's come out and strangely, coincidentally cut
0:16
their Bitcoin price prediction. This is Citigroup, and they are
0:21
a bank who have been very bullish on Bitcoin over the past
0:26
few years. And what I find really strange
0:28
is the time of this announcement and this attack because we've
0:33
seen JP Morgan named, shamed and Exposed for creating that
0:39
October 10th flash crash in Bitcoin.
0:43
It got so obvious that they were, let's say, plain
0:47
shenanigans with the price of Bitcoin that they've essentially
0:50
stepped away and even created a pro Bitcoin product.
0:54
It's nearly impossible for them to attack Bitcoin any further.
0:58
But once JP Morgan was finished, who else did we get?
1:01
We got Jane St., another enormous multi trillion dollar
1:05
bank who again got named and shamed so badly that it would be
1:11
nearly impossible for them to continue with the same
1:15
shenanigans that we've seen. And once Bitcoin passed these
1:19
attacks from JP Morgan in October and November, and then
1:23
Jane St. in December and January, what happens with the
1:27
price over the past four weeks? Because we've seen something
1:30
really interesting with the price of Bitcoin.
1:33
If we look at how different assets have performed since this
1:37
most recent Iran conflict, something interesting starts to
1:41
really stick out. We can see that Bitcoin is
1:45
outperforming everything else. Stocks have been sliding.
1:50
If we have a look at the price chart of Bitcoin over the past
1:54
three weeks, you can see a very clear trend.
1:57
Bitcoin has been grinding higher.
2:00
Meanwhile, other assets like the S&P 500 has been grinding lower
2:06
since the middle of February. We've seen a very clear trend
2:11
change over the past four weeks. We've got the NASDAQ also
2:15
grinding lower over the past four weeks.
2:18
And we've even got assets like let's take a look at gold and
2:22
silver also chopping sideways. What is the one asset that is up
2:28
over the past four weeks? Well, we covered this few
2:31
yesterday. Bitcoin just had its best week
2:33
since September 2025. It's finally performing like a
2:41
safe haven asset. And what do we get?
2:45
We get a bank with $21.5 trillion of assets under
2:50
management. No, I didn't make that number
2:52
up. Have a look at this.
2:53
Citigroup manages between 21.5 and $31 trillion of assets.
3:02
And again, I'll remind you they've been bullish on Bitcoin.
3:05
Just three months ago they said this.
3:09
They said $143,000 Bitcoin is their base case.
3:16
This is on December 19th. What has happened since December
3:21
19th that's been so catastrophic for Bitcoin?
3:25
I mean, it's finally, for the past month, 4 weeks in a row,
3:29
consistently, it's started acting like the safe haven asset
3:34
that we've all known for a very long time.
3:37
It is. It is the safe haven asset.
3:40
Well, let's have a look at what Citigroup said.
3:42
Now that we've kind of set the table, I'm more interested at
3:47
the banking system just running through their bullets.
3:50
Think about it for a moment. We got JP Morgan, we got James
3:54
St. And just when you think the
3:56
biggest banks in the world can't attack Bitcoin any longer or
4:00
can't suppress the price of Bitcoin for any longer, we see
4:05
another enormous bank come out and once again spread a little
4:11
bit more FUD. Let's first just show you why
4:15
I'm so interested at this. Let's say fudge and warning that
4:20
Citigroup sent about Bitcoin just a few hours ago this
4:23
morning. So all these big banks are in
4:24
Bitcoin. Citigroup is literally launching
4:28
institutional grade Bitcoin custody and wallet
4:31
infrastructure. They are rolling this out this
4:34
year and they just flipped bearish on Bitcoin this morning.
4:38
But of course we all know it. Morgan Stanley is filing spot
4:42
Bitcoin ETFs. They're rolling out spot Bitcoin
4:45
trading. Goldman Sachs, another huge
4:49
bank. They're they actually own $1.1
4:51
billion of I bits, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and even the CEO of
4:57
Goldman Sachs personally confirmed that he owns Bitcoin.
5:02
He's got bags and all of these big banks, they are buying a lot
5:07
of Bitcoin privately and then publicly.
5:11
We have to ask ourselves why there's flip flopping so much
5:15
and spreading FUD and noise when I don't really know it's
5:19
warranted. I mean, what we're seeing right
5:22
now is let's be clear, let's be straight.
5:25
It's something we've been waiting to see for six years.
5:28
Bitcoin behave as a safe haven asset.
5:32
It actually nearly touched $76,000 this morning.
5:37
But yet Citigroup feels the need to.
5:40
Let's have a look what they said.
5:42
So Citigroup has officially cut their Bitcoin price predictions.
5:47
The reason why they're saying this, what is the cover?
5:52
They're saying, oh, forget Bitcoin being a safe haven
5:54
asset, Forget the fact that Bitcoin's the best performing
5:58
asset over the past 30 days. Again, we're not talking about
6:00
12 hours, 30 days. It's a lot of days, it's a lot
6:04
of weekends. It's a lot of time where we've
6:07
seen a lot of conflict. This entire Iran war has
6:11
escalated in the past 30 days. Bitcoin has been the best
6:15
performing asset. But for Citigroup, well, they
6:20
they are more concerned at crypto red legislation stolen.
6:26
So they've said the investment back.
6:29
The investment bank has cited that slower ETF flows, weak
6:33
network activity, and a narrowing window for US
6:39
regulatory catalysts is their justification for why they're
6:45
flipping a little bit more bearish on Bitcoin.
6:48
So what have they done? They've said, look, we expected
6:51
$143,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
6:56
And again, they are rolling out Bitcoin trading for their
7:00
customers and their firms this year.
7:02
They're not just pulling price predictions out of the wazoo.
7:05
They're actually physically involved in the asset.
7:09
They have told their clients consistently over the past 12
7:13
months, you're going to get Bitcoin trading.
7:15
We want to launch a Bitcoin ETF. This is a lot more, let's say,
7:20
important than just the price predictors, OK?
7:23
This is why I think this subtle change is very interesting.
7:28
So they're saying that the the Bitcoin ETF flows remain the
7:32
primary driver, but they are saying that they're cutting
7:37
their 12 month demand assumptions to $10 billion for
7:42
Bitcoin. That means they think that only
7:45
$10 billion of flows is going to come into Bitcoin over the next
7:49
12 months. And they are using this as
7:53
justification for cutting their Bitcoin price prediction and
7:58
creating a little bit of noise, creating a little bit of FUD at
8:02
a time when Bitcoin is performing very well.
8:05
So why do I want to pay very close attention to that figure?
8:09
They're saying, look, the ETF demand, it's slowing down, but
8:13
is it? Let's have a look at some of the
8:15
corporate demand we've seen. We covered this for you guys
8:18
earlier in the week. Michael Saylor over there at
8:22
Strategy has bought 40,000 Bitcoin in the past seven days.
8:28
It's now 8 days, it's Tuesday. Think about that.
8:32
Strategy is now buying more Bitcoin than it ever has.
8:36
This is a corporate institutional holder of Bitcoin
8:40
this week going absolutely bananas.
8:42
And yesterday on the show, we also covered for you guys,
8:45
Metaplanet raising $500 million to buy more Bitcoin.
8:50
That's a lot more than what, one $2 billion worth of buy pressure
8:56
just in the past eight days. But Citigroup says, yeah, we
9:03
don't really see more than $10 billion of demand over the next
9:06
12 months. That's what they're using as
9:09
their justification to spread complete noise and FUD.
9:15
OK, let's see what else they said.
9:17
So they said progress on US digital asset legislation is
9:22
slowing, with the odds of passage this year slipping to
9:27
60%. That's what their fancy report
9:31
believes. They think there's only a 60%
9:34
chance that we see some positive news coming out of America
9:40
again, let's verify is this true let's dive into what's say the
9:48
US president has recently said about Bitcoin and the clarity
9:51
act. I've got a few clips for you
9:53
guys let's try to uncover what's going on you you've made America
9:58
the digital asset capital of the world.
10:01
We did the genius act for stable coins.
10:03
Many of the people standing up here working on the clarity bill
10:06
to I hope it gets more market structure and we're bringing US
10:11
best practices to an exciting the new industry digital assets
10:16
innovation and it it spreads everywhere.
10:19
So the the US and do you agree that?
10:32
Wanting to be the Bitcoin capital of the entire world,
10:36
let's actually jump on over to Polymarket because I want to
10:40
take a look at the odds of something like the Clarity Act
10:43
actually getting passed. Because again, let's see where
10:46
the Citigroup is actually citing realistic probabilities or
10:55
realistic reasons to be bearish. I want to pull up this.
10:58
This is I found the Poly market chart.
11:01
And we can see that right now at the time we're recording this
11:04
looks to be about, oh, you don't want to zoom up in my big head
11:07
that close. There we go.
11:08
That's much more pleasant. We can see a 61% chance of the
11:13
Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026.
11:18
Now, what I'm more concerned about is the trend.
11:21
If you look at the odds here, we've kind of been chopping
11:24
around 5050 for the past week. Where's the trend change?
11:31
Where is this urgent, dire, catastrophic situation changing
11:38
for Bitcoin that Citigroup feels the need to come out and spread
11:44
a little bit of FUD? I don't see it.
11:49
This is again why I'm getting suspicious.
11:53
This is again why I can't help but wonder, was Citigroup tapped
11:58
on the shoulder and said, hey, this Bitcoin thing, it's kind of
12:03
getting away from us. It's up 20% in the past two
12:05
weeks and it's acting like a safe haven.
12:08
We can't have it doing this. But we've used all the bullets
12:12
in the chamber, we've used Jane St. we've used JP Morgan.
12:18
They've got a little bit too much heat, too much attention
12:21
and now I don't know who or what entity is out there, let's say
12:28
getting their Bank of friends to do them a little bit of bidding.
12:32
But I'm seriously think that Citigroup might be the next Papa
12:38
in this little puppet master show of the bankers trying to
12:41
manipulate the price of Bitcoin. Again, a lot of people will say
12:45
we're going to look at the on chain data.
12:46
Some people will say no, but Luke, Bitcoin's down because the
12:49
long term holders sold. We're going to look at that
12:51
argument because it's undeniable that long term holders have
12:54
definitely at least moved some Bitcoin over the past three
12:58
years. They've moved up to 4 million
13:00
coins. We're going to dive into that,
13:03
but just keep that thought in the back of your mind.
13:05
Why Citigroup? Why Citigroup?
13:08
Now they are a $21.5 trillion bank.
13:11
When they talk, people listen. But this is kind of the first
13:16
piece of bearish news I've seen come out about Citigroup.
13:22
And again, you can see this new report that they dropped, they
13:26
revised Bitcoin targets. They came out when Bitcoin was
13:30
trading at $74,000. So it's not like they can hide
13:33
behind the point that, hey, we published it 3 weeks ago when
13:37
Bitcoin was in the 60s and it wasn't really acting like a safe
13:40
haven asset. It's very recent.
13:46
Now let's actually have a look at the other thing they cited.
13:48
So we showed you there's a lot of institutional flows coming
13:51
from strategy, but what about the Bitcoin ETFs?
13:57
This is specifically what Citigroup named and shamed.
14:01
They said only 10 billion from the ETFs over the next 12
14:06
months. This is why we feel like we can
14:09
confidently spread a little bit more noise about Bitcoin.
14:15
Well, let's analyse that claim. Let's have a look.
14:19
So these are the Bitcoin ETF net daily inflows and outflows.
14:24
You can see, let's play devil's advocate.
14:27
Let's give them the benefit of the doubt.
14:29
There's a lot of red here. In February when the we had more
14:34
conflict in early Feb, people were rightfully a little bit
14:38
scared. But what we have seen, Bitcoin
14:43
saw one of its biggest green inflow candles on March 4th.
14:47
We saw $668 million of inflows. It was enormous, nearly the
14:53
biggest we've seen since the middle of 2025.
14:57
Look at this other big green candle.
14:59
This is on October 7th. So Bitcoin just last week in
15:05
early March had a one day inflow of $668 million.
15:11
It was the biggest since October, the biggest inflow day
15:16
in six months. So again, let's go back to the
15:19
reasons that Citigroup is citing to be so bearish on Bitcoin.
15:25
Do we believe it? Do we believe that there's only
15:27
going to be $10 billion of inflows from Bitcoin ETFs when
15:31
we just saw a daily inflow of 660 million big ones?
15:37
I don't believe them. They're trying to tell you that
15:42
that warm yellow salty liquid hitting you on the back of your
15:46
head is just water. I don't think it's water.
15:50
I I'm going to be fair to Citigroup.
15:52
Let's, let's leave the pissing analogies to the side for just
15:56
one moment. Let's continue breaking down
15:59
what they said. So they're trying to say that
16:03
the Clarity Acts, a sweeping US crypto market structure bill,
16:07
has cleared the House. Oh, but sorry, it still remains
16:11
stalled in the Senate as lawmakers negotiate competing
16:15
proposals, leaving its path forward uncertain.
16:20
Again, like the clip we just played.
16:22
I don't know how uncertain it would be that some of the
16:28
biggest Bitcoin holders in the world do not want to push the
16:32
Clarity Acts forward again. I don't know.
16:35
I'm not a politician, I'm just a kid on the Internet with
16:38
terrible haircut. I have no idea about American
16:40
politics, but just look at the data.
16:43
Let's think from first principles for a moment.
16:46
Who is number 13 on this list of biggest Bitcoin public treasury
16:54
companies in the world? Trump media.
17:00
They personally hold 9000 Bitcoin.
17:07
We know that Donald Trump is the mouthpiece for Eric.
17:11
Eric is the one who's all in balls deep in Bitcoin.
17:15
They have a Bitcoin company. Do we really think they're just
17:19
going to let something as important as the Clarity Act
17:24
just stall in the Senate? I mean, I don't know.
17:29
I mean, just think about, well, I do know.
17:31
Well, I think I know. Think about this for a moment.
17:35
They've already signed executive orders on the Genius Act, an
17:39
executive order. Would they really not just sign
17:43
an executive order on the Clarity Act if it was so
17:46
important? And if Bitcoin needed it so much
17:50
like Citigroup seems to think, do we really think that the
17:55
Trump's wouldn't just sign an executive order or rush it
17:57
through or tap some friends on the shoulders and get it done?
18:02
I don't know. I I don't see this excuse as
18:07
another justifiable reason for why we're going to spread some
18:13
negative Bitcoin news and say, yeah, we're not so bullish on
18:15
Bitcoin. Forget the fact that we're
18:17
offering Bitcoin trading to our clients.
18:20
Yeah, we don't. We're not so hard on it anymore.
18:22
Forget that $143,000 Bitcoin price prediction.
18:25
It's over. They didn't say it's over, but
18:27
they did cut their price prediction.
18:29
Let's listen in to just remind you guys what the Trump family
18:34
thinks about Bitcoin, because Eric, he still sounds pretty
18:39
optimistic. We believe in crypto.
18:42
How much crypto do you have on your balance sheet?
18:43
We're a private company, so I'm not going to I'm I'm not going
18:45
to mention it. Would you give me a wrench?
18:47
It's substantial, more than 100 million.
18:49
Absolutely. More than 500 million probably
18:52
that growth in crypto riches has coincided with Trump's second
18:56
term in office. I'm.
18:58
Going to play that again for you guys, Substantial.
19:01
More than 100 million. Absolutely.
19:03
More than 500 million, probably that growth in crypto riches.
19:07
Has gone. I mean, I don't know about you
19:09
guys, but that that that is the representation of balls of
19:13
steel. Yeah.
19:14
I hold $500 million of it privately.
19:16
I'm not going to tell you how much it is.
19:18
Think about that for just one second.
19:20
We've got publicly, we showed you the receipts.
19:24
Trump Media Group owns what, 9000 Bitcoin?
19:29
And they have to disclose how much they own because it's a
19:31
publicly traded company and they've got the 13th largest
19:34
publicly traded company with Bitcoin in the balance sheet and
19:38
then privately. Yeah. 100 million, that's chump
19:41
change. We got way more than that.
19:42
Yeah, we got more than 500 million, but we ain't telling
19:45
you think about it. These guys are heavily
19:48
incentivized to be pro Bitcoin. Heavily.
19:52
We can see it very clearly. Trump Media and Technology Group
19:56
Corp they owe 9000 coins and we really think that they're not
20:06
going to force through the clarity act all right let's
20:08
let's give let's give Citigroup the benefit of the doubt let's
20:13
continue reading this report and looking at their justification
20:17
for why the flipped. Bearish on Bitcoin now, and I'll
20:21
remind you as well, we had a long show in store for you guys
20:24
today. Citigroup is not the only
20:27
enormous billionaire who has flipped bearish on Bitcoin.
20:31
We got some clips to play you from Chamath, Paula Hapatier.
20:35
I hope I didn't butcher that name.
20:37
He's of course the man who is publicly on the news in like
20:40
2013 saying that he owned a tonne of Bitcoin, predicting
20:45
very high prices. And strangely, Chamath, a man
20:50
who's understood Bitcoin for what 13 years is also this week,
20:55
well, yesterday by the looks of it, came out and changed his
20:58
stance on Bitcoin again. I always, what do we say when
21:02
something happens Once maybe it was just a just an event.
21:06
It just happened. It was a random isolated event.
21:09
When you see two massive influential banks and
21:14
billionaires change their stance on Bitcoin at a time when it's
21:19
performing the way it should be performing, that's when you
21:22
start kind of scratching your head a little bit and saying,
21:24
hang on a minute. It's a bit of a coincidence.
21:26
We're going to get to Tamath in a moment.
21:29
Let's keep breaking down this Citigroup report because this is
21:33
super interesting. I, I can't believe they said
21:35
what they said this is. And again, nobody's talking
21:37
about this, so they're saying. The analysts also flagged
21:42
weakening momentum in the crypto market since bitcoin's October
21:48
peak, citing liquidations, positioning fatigue and prices
21:53
sitting below key technical levels.
21:57
Bitcoin may continue to range trade with a with around $70,000
22:03
seen as an important psychological level tied to pre
22:07
election pricing. So one thing we know, this
22:10
report was published at $74,000 Bitcoin.
22:13
They said $70,000 was a psychological level.
22:16
Bitcoin was $4000 above it. I don't really buy what they
22:20
said here. And they also said, oh, OK,
22:22
Bitcoin's been weak since October.
22:24
That's true. Bitcoin has been weak since
22:27
October. But a lot of the damage was done
22:30
in when was it, October, November, December.
22:34
Again, when was the peak fear for Bitcoin?
22:37
When you've got JP Morgan coming out and saying that strategy's
22:40
going to get delisted from the MSCI in October, We've got
22:46
Inside Wales making hundreds of millions of dollars of profit
22:50
from shorting Bitcoin Minutes, very coincidentally, minutes
22:54
before a Trump tweet announcing 100% tariffs on China.
22:57
Again, that's what happened on October 10th.
23:00
That was peak fear. Bitcoin crashed 25% in a day.
23:06
And don't forget, Citigroup came out in December and they said
23:10
this. Their base case for Bitcoin in
23:13
December was still $143,000. So again, are you really
23:20
believing that that is water splashing on your back?
23:24
I don't. I think Citigroup shouldn't be
23:29
trusted. And again, at right now we have
23:34
huge flows coming from not only corporations, from ETFs.
23:39
I, I just, every argument they have made, it just doesn't pass
23:43
the sniff test for me. I don't, I don't know, but you
23:48
guys let us know in the chat whether it passes the sniff test
23:51
for you. I'm not seeing it.
23:54
I'm seeing huge Bitcoin ETF flows.
23:59
Even just an hour ago, we got another $202 million inflow into
24:05
the Bitcoin ETFs. Now, again, a lot of people will
24:09
say, oh, but the ETFs saw a four or $5 billion outflow.
24:15
That's true. But let's put that into context
24:19
again, I'm really going to try to make Citigroup look.
24:22
I'm going to play devil's advocate because we have seen
24:25
outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs. Some people I think have
24:31
dramatized the headline. They've said, oh, $4 billion of
24:35
outflows. It's a catastrophe.
24:38
It's horrific. Well, let's have a look because
24:43
I want to look at the assets under management.
24:45
Daily flows is something that we can look at.
24:50
Daily flows is important, but assets under management is the
24:54
single is the signal. If I were to get a chart that
24:59
zoomed all the way out to as far as I wanted it to go to go out,
25:03
it actually doesn't look as horrific as this chart looks
25:07
like. The chart's not doing me any any
25:12
any favours, but the amount of capital that's actually flowed
25:16
out of the ETFs, it's like 5 to 6%.
25:20
Ibid's still holding 784,000 coins.
25:24
Fidelity's still holding 220,000 coins.
25:28
The Bitcoin price is down 50%. The ETFs hardly drew down more
25:32
than 5% in total assets under management.
25:39
But let's put that to the side because Citigroup is one bank
25:43
who, again, as Bitcoin is climbing higher, decided to come
25:47
out, publish a little bit of FUD.
25:49
But they're not the only we told you.
25:53
We got a clip coming from Chamath Palahapatiya.
25:57
I think before I get to that might want to pause, take a
26:01
break. I might need a little bit of a
26:03
drink if I'm going to sit here and yap for you guys for another
26:06
hour and I want once again thank our show sponsors who make these
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se-ed.com store. OK, so we've talked about
28:30
Citigroup. Let's talk about someone else
28:33
who I think we need to talk about.
28:34
I mentioned him in the intro Chemaf Palahapatia.
28:38
Coincidentally this week he's spreading a little bit of
28:42
Bitcoin fun himself and again, he's a very connected man.
28:46
I'll play you a few clips to show you just how connected he
28:49
is in a moment. But I want to start by looking
28:52
at, you know, a high level. What's he talking about?
28:55
Because he published this mega viral tweet thread this morning.
29:01
It's talking about what a lot of people are talking about the
29:04
collapse of terminal value. What happens if AI makes every
29:09
mote temporary? And you're going to see a
29:12
response from Michael Saylor in a moment to this viral article.
29:17
And I'm going to show you some of the most important pieces
29:20
that Chimaf did hit on. You can see Michael Saylor
29:24
started a little bit of a back and forward with Chimaf this
29:27
morning. It was yesterday morning on
29:29
Twitter. But before we dive into all of
29:31
that, I want to play you a recent clip that I saw from
29:35
Chimaf that was yet again, just another one of those head
29:39
scratches. Again, the man's been positive
29:42
on Bitcoin for 13 years, but this most recent clip, he seems
29:47
to have changed his tune a little bit.
29:50
So let's listen in to what Chamath has to say about Bitcoin
29:53
now in 2026. I think the reality is that
29:58
Bitcoin for the most part at this point is there's a
30:02
structural failing in Bitcoin that I think people will need to
30:04
come and wrap their heads around.
30:06
The structural failing is that it is not.
30:08
So if you think about like what is the value maximizing function
30:11
right now for, for a crypto asset to be broadly adopted, it
30:15
needs to have the, the, the features that allow a central
30:19
bank to adopt it. And there are two things that it
30:21
lacks, you know, 1 is fungibility and two is privacy.
30:25
And so Bitcoin fails on those two dimensions.
30:27
So it can never be a structural holding of a central bank and
30:31
that simple thing will keep it in the realm of ETFs and humans
30:36
and. Does gold satisfy those
30:38
conditions? Yeah, fungibility you have no,
30:41
easily both. You have no idea how much the
30:44
Bank of China owns. You don't know how many ounces
30:46
they own. You don't know how many ounces I
30:47
own. When there's a public Ledger
30:49
that says this address has this much and you can't really trade
30:53
it because you know the history and the provenance of that exact
30:55
token. It's been used to buy this.
30:57
It was transacted over here. It went to this wallet that lack
31:01
of fungibility and privacy is a huge deterrent for broad
31:06
structural adoption. That's what you need to then add
31:09
another 10X of market cap. So is there room for a different
31:16
crypto asset that solves for the privacy and fungibility?
31:21
Yeah. And are there projects right
31:23
now? Yes, but they're very small
31:24
scale. There's huge issues with them.
31:26
Those are even more volatile. So Bitcoins.
31:29
Interesting. Hold on to there with Chamath,
31:39
who is now saying some really interesting things about
31:41
Bitcoin. So that's what he's saying in
31:43
2026. Now we're going to dive into
31:45
everything he said in a moment, but I want to first play a clip
31:49
from his 2013 talks on Bitcoin because as you going to gauge,
31:56
something seems to have changed. In financial services, you know,
32:00
Chris talked about it earlier, but Bitcoin and things like it
32:04
is the equivalent of the red pill.
32:06
OK, We are entering a completely world of uncharted water.
32:10
Have you made any investments in?
32:11
Bitcoin, So I mean, I personally, I own Bitcoin in my
32:14
hedge fund, I own Bitcoin in my fund, I own Bitcoin in my
32:17
private account. It is a huge deal.
32:22
It's a huge, huge, huge deal because what you're talking
32:25
about right now is for the next three to five years, an
32:28
unbelievably better store value. It is gold 2.0, right?
32:32
The value of gold that hedges the world economy about $9
32:35
trillion, right? 1300 an ounce, of which only 100
32:38
to $150.00 is the actual production value.
32:41
So all the rest of it is imputed.
32:42
We're Lena. You and I have decided that it's
32:44
worth 1300 an ounce. Well, guess what?
32:46
I can do the same thing with Bitcoin, except now it's I could
32:48
do it outside the purview of every single government.
32:53
It's being used everywhere where you would think it would be
32:55
used, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Venezuela, Argentina, everywhere
32:59
where you have currency pressure everywhere where you want to
33:02
basically shield your assets. And then after that, it'll
33:05
probably become a payment mechanism.
33:07
So in all of these 3 industries, you're talking about trillions
33:11
of dollars up for grabs, up for grabs, right?
33:14
And it's just about trying something and taking a few
33:17
months to understand what the opportunity is and then hit the
33:20
scene. So that was Chimaf circa 2013,
33:26
very different sounding Chimaf to 2026.
33:29
And again, him coming out and publishing this article
33:32
yesterday and promoting and spreading that fuzz about
33:37
Bitcoin last week in the clip that I played for you guys, all
33:42
of this again takes me back to that chronological timeline.
33:45
Why now? Why in the same week that
33:49
Citigroup has strangely changed their Bitcoin opinion.
33:54
These are the type of things I like to keep an eye on.
33:56
Now let's analyse what Chamath said to see whether there's any
33:59
truth in his FUD spreading of Bitcoin.
34:03
So he said central banks don't want to hold Bitcoin, they only
34:06
want to hold gold. Let's have a look, Let's be
34:08
charitable. Let's see whether that is a true
34:10
statement or not. So we do know that, yes, central
34:14
banks have been buying a lot of gold recently.
34:18
I have a couple of charts to show you.
34:20
For the first time in 30 years, central banks now hold more gold
34:26
than they do U.S. Treasuries.
34:28
Gold is obviously having a parabolic bull bull market.
34:32
It's above $5000 a coin. We get it.
34:34
Central banks are buying. Like Chamath said, we have no
34:37
idea how much gold the Central Bank of China has.
34:40
He says he has a lot of gold, but even Chamath, he doesn't
34:44
know how much gold he has because you can't verify it.
34:48
This is, again, some of the things that he was nearly
34:50
alluding to in 2013. Why does he seem to not
34:55
understand what he said in 2013? In 2026?
34:58
Now he said central banks don't want to hold Bitcoin.
35:03
This chart's a little bit zoomed out, but I think you can get the
35:05
picture. We have governments all around
35:08
the world with massive Bitcoin bags.
35:10
China, their government, 194,000 coins.
35:13
America, who knows how much Bitcoin they have, but it's over
35:16
200,000. By this chart, the UK still sits
35:19
on 61,000 Bitcoin, despite all of their repeated attacks on
35:23
Bitcoin. And then we've got other
35:25
countries like El Salvador, Venezuela, Ukraine, Finland, the
35:29
Kingdom of Bhutan and Georgia. And we do know even more
35:33
recently, some people will say that, Luke, they're governments.
35:36
What about central banks? Well, just recently, in late
35:40
2025, let's forget the Czech central bank.
35:44
They bought $1,000,000 of Bitcoin for quote, UN quote,
35:47
asset testing. And this is the same central
35:51
bank that got attacked by Christine Lagarde for even
35:56
floating the idea in 2025. We can see.
36:02
Let's remind you of that because I'm going to show you that a lot
36:05
of people say that $1,000,000 purchase is, well, it's not
36:09
significant. And that's a fair take.
36:12
But remember, they were kind of slapped.
36:15
We can see ECECBS Lagarde slaps down the Czech proposal for
36:21
Bitcoin reserves. This is in January 2025.
36:26
She came out and she said in a clip that I'm not going to play
36:28
for you today because I have too many clips to play for you.
36:31
But she said, I am very confident.
36:33
I spoke to the Czech central bank.
36:36
They won't be putting any Bitcoin in their reserves.
36:38
Bow, bow, bow. 11 months later in November, they went ahead and
36:42
bought it anyway. So they're not the only central
36:47
bank that came out and bought Bitcoin.
36:51
We know our Salvador, we know that there's even more recently,
36:55
we have the central Bank of Kazakhstan not only buying more
37:03
Bitcoin, but let's have a look at this headline.
37:06
I just want to show this to you guys know I'm not just pulling
37:08
this out of nowhere, but they actually sold gold to buy
37:16
Bitcoin. So this is literally the the the
37:19
absolute opposite of what Chamath is saying.
37:22
Chamath is saying I'm not bullish on Bitcoin anymore
37:24
because central banks want gold, not Bitcoin.
37:27
Wait on a minute. We have central banks,
37:30
admittedly not the biggest ones, I get that.
37:33
But we have central banks selling gold to buy Bitcoin.
37:40
This is a real headline and this is kind of wild, and it's
37:44
headlines like these again, this is just two weeks ago, March
37:48
6th. These headlines going missed by
37:51
most people is what I think is going to accelerate a lot of
37:56
this FOMO that we're seeing develop behind closed doors.
38:00
I want to talk about all of that FOMO in a moment, but before I
38:05
get there, I want to take one more break and once again shout
38:08
out our incredible sponsors who make these live streams
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possible. And then we're going to get back
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into looking at what I think is happening this year with the
38:17
whole Black Rock strategy. I think there's a race
38:20
developing and no one's focusing on it.
38:22
So let's dive into that next section in a moment.
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OK, guys, we are back. I want to cover a few more very
41:52
important topics for you. So today we've been looking at
41:56
all of the attacks that coincidentally have come out
41:59
this week on Bitcoin. I want to show you what's been
42:02
happening behind closed doors because we got a really
42:05
interesting headline once again this morning that I want to kind
42:09
of walk you through and show you maybe a hypothetical thought
42:13
experiment of where this goes. What is the end game?
42:17
What is happening and why are we seeing strategy accumulate
42:23
Bitcoin at a rate we've never seen before?
42:26
Because a lot of people now are starting to ask the question,
42:28
OK, we've got how much Bitcoin left to mine.
42:32
We did recently see that the 20th million Bitcoin was mined,
42:39
I think earlier in the week. Think about that for a moment.
42:43
21 million Bitcoin will ever exist.
42:47
Twenty of those have already been mined.
42:50
Michael Saylor says that we are living through a digital gold
42:57
rush. This is what Michael Saylor
42:59
says. We're living in right now and
43:03
we're seeing something kind of interesting.
43:06
We're seeing Bitcoin now normalize much higher prices.
43:10
I want to show you this little graphic because I thought it was
43:11
really apologies if that audio was super loud, but what we're
43:17
seeing is Bitcoin quietly normalized 5060.
43:22
We spent a couple of 100 days above $100,000, I believe, and
43:27
now we've got some significant buying pressure stepping in
43:33
while everybody's quietly, suspiciously turning negative on
43:39
Bitcoin. Just as the Bitcoin buys
43:41
increase, just as we're seeing more flows into the Bitcoin
43:45
ETFs, we're all of a sudden seeing the micro strategies, the
43:52
black rocks quietly by a lot of Bitcoin.
43:59
And this is, this is kind of interesting.
44:01
I saw a headline earlier today that said that strategy is
44:05
actually going to overtake BlackRock and potentially be one
44:16
of the biggest Bitcoin holders in the world.
44:17
So I want to break down what that might look like because
44:23
they are right now closing in on 1,000,000 coins.
44:28
And this price chart, this little graphic and the
44:31
visualization I'm showing you right now, it's important to
44:34
keep in the back of your mind because if Bitcoin has now
44:37
normalized 50 to $100,000 a coin, that now makes the math a
44:42
little bit more difficult. Again, if Bitcoin's at 100,000,
44:45
how difficult is it going to be for an entity to buy a million
44:50
coins and overtake A BlackRock or a micro strategy?
44:54
It's nearly impossible. It's essentially A2 horse race
44:57
right now because we've got, we're going to have a look in a
45:00
moment. There's somewhere around 2 to
45:01
2.5 million Bitcoin sat on exchanges and that number's been
45:05
just constantly dropping like a rock for the past five to six
45:08
years now. We're in a new environment.
45:10
We're in an environment where there's just not that much
45:12
Bitcoin left. And I think looking at the power
45:16
struggle between BlackRock and Sailor, I think this is going to
45:21
get even more interesting as the years pass.
45:24
So right now, again this week, while there's coincidentally all
45:28
these bearish headlines on Bitcoin, Strategy is using its
45:32
new product Stretch to accumulate a tonne of Bitcoin.
45:37
We talked about this yesterday, so we won't completely rehash at
45:39
all, but I saw this headline come out.
45:43
Stretch may help Strategy reach 1,000,000 Bitcoin before
45:48
BlackRock. This really got me thinking.
45:52
Look at how this trend is accelerating.
45:54
It's kicking up like a hockey stick.
45:58
You can see a lot of these big orange circles on Sailor
46:03
Tracker. They're increasing, they're
46:04
getting bigger, which is good to see.
46:07
Maybe Michael's now buying the dip a little bit more
46:10
aggressively, but his last two buyers were 18,000 Bitcoin and
46:14
22,000 Bitcoin. He bought 40,000 coins in the
46:17
past eight days. Think about that for a moment.
46:21
Right now he's sat on 767,000 Bitcoin.
46:25
You can see that in top left hand corner of your screen.
46:28
If he keeps buying 40,000 Bitcoin every two weeks, that
46:32
would be 80,000 coins a month. And that would mean if he's
46:37
starting right now at 761,000 coins, Sailor's going to have a
46:42
million coins before August. Think about that for a minute.
46:49
That changes a lot of things. That changes Blackrock's plan to
46:56
be #1 you can see people are now starting to recognize this
47:01
strategy just snapped up $1.57 billion of Bitcoin.
47:07
It's narrowing the gap with Blackrock's ibit Bitcoin ETF
47:14
strategies raise a 1.58 billion through equity sales.
47:21
We can even if you want to be more conservative, you can see
47:23
strategies latest purchase over three times its recent four week
47:28
average is 6000 Bitcoin. You want to be a bit
47:31
conservative, you can zoom out a bit.
47:33
I'm more interested in how stretch is getting increasingly,
47:40
let's say, more popular and it's seen a lot more demand.
47:44
And now this kind of leads us back to the article we didn't
47:46
really show you, we didn't really show you the boxing match
47:49
between Michael Saylor and Chamath Palahapatia.
47:53
So let's go back to that because I think it's interesting to not
47:58
only just look at the intellectual sparring matches
48:02
that we do see online, but again, just ask yourself why
48:07
Chamath? Why now?
48:09
Is there a valid reason for him? Like Citigroup all of a sudden
48:14
starts spreading Bitcoin FUD this week?
48:16
I don't know, but this is the article that caused a lot of a
48:19
stir online yesterday. Got 1,000,000 views.
48:22
The collapse of terminal value. What happens if AI makes every
48:26
Moat temporary? And what's interesting about
48:30
this specific article? He's talking about assets, he's
48:34
talking about businesses, he's talking about bonds.
48:39
We can see. To understand the magnitude of
48:42
such a change, consider where we stand today.
48:45
The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 22 times earnings.
48:51
Top technology companies trade at 30 to 60 X multiples.
48:55
High growth SAS companies have commanded 8 to 20X revenue
49:00
despite near 0 cash flow. This is because the market was
49:06
paying for the empire they would eventually build.
49:10
But for most of these businesses, 60 to 80% of their
49:13
equity value lives not in what they earn today, but in the
49:17
terminal value, the discounted sum of cash flow in years 10 and
49:22
beyond. And this is obviously where his
49:26
AI thesis comes into it. This is the next article.
49:31
This is the next little section I want to show you.
49:33
The aggregate S&P 500 market cap today sits at 58 trillion.
49:38
Corporate free cash flow from operations for the index runs at
49:42
roughly 2.8 trillion annually. Repriced at a 5X multiple,
49:48
you're looking at an equity market worth 14 trillion, a
49:52
drawdown of 75% from current levels.
49:56
At the low end of the range, 2X free cash flows, the losses are
50:01
nearly total. Even at the generous end, 7X,
50:06
roughly 2/3 of all equity wealth ceases to exist.
50:11
To put that in context, the 2008 global financial crisis erased
50:15
around $10 trillion in wealth at its worst.
50:19
This scenario of AI erases multiples of that across every
50:27
asset class in every country. Simultaneously he says growth
50:34
investing dies and this is the interesting thing he says
50:39
capital rotates to the physical world.
50:46
OK, so he says this go takes us back to our clip we were looking
50:50
at gold performs short term, government credit holds up the
50:58
rotation away from equities would reshape everything from
51:02
pension fund asset liability matching to the basic 6040
51:06
portfolio, which quietly stops making sense in this a of you
51:13
know this world of AI that Chamath Palhapatia is kind of
51:18
painting. So this is where Michael steps
51:25
in, and he says if AI compresses terminal value and makes every
51:31
Moat temporary, capital will rotate into assets with no
51:35
disruption risk. Bitcoin is digital capital,
51:39
scarce, neutral and impervious to AI disruption.
51:43
Bitcoin should be the primary beneficiary of this shift.
51:49
Chimaf says Bitcoin would need to be quantum resistant by then,
51:55
which kind of sounds like a did he even read Sailor's response
52:01
or is he just spewing propaganda?
52:04
I don't know. Michael says your AI thesis
52:07
assumes the digital world is quantum resistance.
52:11
If quantum breaks cryptography, it breaks AI, cloud
52:17
infrastructure, banks and the Internet, not just Bitcoin.
52:21
The entire stack upgrades together and Chimaf has left
52:29
that one on red for a week. Boy, kind of telling to me.
52:43
It's not necessarily telling, it's more of a red flag of
52:50
something deeper. If you think about this from
52:52
first principles, we saw the clip of CHIMAF and how eloquence
53:00
he was in his Bitcoin arguments and understanding 13 years ago.
53:08
He had it privately, he had it in his hedge fund.
53:12
He could talk well about Bitcoin 13 years ago.
53:18
If he, if you like, think about this from first principles, why
53:23
is he not even engaging in the discussion with Michael on
53:30
Twitter? Think about that for a moment.
53:34
If he was really, I mean, it looked like he was pretty
53:37
genuine 13 years ago. He sounded like he owned a ton.
53:40
He sounded like he owned a ton in his hedge funds.
53:47
If he had genuine concerns about Bitcoin, why didn't he have a
53:55
back and forths with the man who owns $60 billion of Bitcoin?
54:00
I thought that pretty genuine questions and responses that
54:02
Michael asked, but Chamath looked like he just spewed out a
54:07
ChatGPT generated NPC talking point.
54:10
BTC would need to be quantum resistant by then.
54:14
Didn't even address what Michael said.
54:15
Which by the way, correctly addresses all of the concerns
54:20
and FUD laid out in this article.
54:23
And then he didn't reply when Michael once again made
54:27
objectively a great point. This is where you've got to once
54:32
again start entertaining other thought experiments.
54:38
Again, I walked you through some thought experiments as to maybe
54:42
why Citigroup did the backflip that they did when they did.
54:50
Sometimes you've got to start entertaining what some people
54:55
will call conspiracy theories again, the fact that JP Morgan,
54:59
Jane Street, they get completely busted.
55:03
They get caught with their hands in the cookie jar.
55:07
I'm a, my base case is maybe somebody tapped Citigroup on the
55:12
shoulder and said, hey, we need to spread some FUD.
55:14
This Bitcoin thing's getting away from us.
55:17
It's de correlating from the markets.
55:18
It's acting like a safe haven. We can't have that, not yet,
55:22
because we haven't finished filling our boots.
55:26
It's just an idea. It's just a thought experiment.
55:29
Love to know what you guys think in the chat.
55:31
But then the same goes with Chermaf.
55:33
Why does he come out the same week when Bitcoin's performing
55:36
pretty well and recycle the same old FUD that's been addressed 10
55:40
years ago? I want to play another clip for
55:45
you guys. I think it's an interesting one,
55:50
listening to something else Shamaf has said previously about
55:53
how the world really operates. There's about 150 people that
56:02
run the world. Anybody who wants to go into
56:04
politics, they're all fucking puppets, OK, There are 150 and
56:10
they're all men that run the world, period, full stop.
56:15
They control most of the important assets.
56:17
They control the money flows and these are not the tech
56:20
entrepreneurs now they they are going to get rolled over over
56:24
the next 5 to 10 years by the people that are really
56:27
underneath pulling the strings. And when you get behind the
56:31
curtain and see how that world works, what you realize is it is
56:35
unfairly set up for them and their progeny.
56:43
Very illuminating clip. I see a couple of you guys in
56:48
the comment section. I've come to the same conclusion
56:52
that I have. Somebody got to him.
57:01
Citigroup is a $21.5 trillion bank.
57:07
If you join late, I encourage you to rewind.
57:10
What's the stream from the beginning?
57:12
We covered all the receipts. Citigroup.
57:15
Actually, I could make an argument.
57:16
They hold even more assets than that.
57:18
Let's have a look. They're enormous.
57:22
I was shocked when I saw this myself between 21.5 trillion to
57:31
31.4 trillion. I wanted to be conservative for
57:36
the title for you guys today and I chose the lower number.
57:39
But this Citigroup Chamaf kind of makes you ask the question,
57:48
why now? Jamie Diamonds FUD got exposed,
57:57
James St. got exposed and then we get trotted out with the same
58:00
old propaganda. I don't know.
58:06
That's what's on my mind today again.
58:12
Once again, if you own Bitcoin in self custody, all of this is
58:15
noise. I think all of this is a lot
58:17
more reasons to own Bitcoin in self custody and put it in your
58:21
own self custody. It's what we've been talking
58:24
about here on Simply Bitcoin for what, 6 years now?
58:26
So again, if you're not subscribed, make sure you
58:29
subscribed. I might end this little RIP
58:31
here. We will be back to more regular
58:34
programming in the not too distant future.
58:37
Stay tuned for that. I hope you are.
58:41
We're going to keep we're going to keep this stream to under an
58:45
hour. I won't subject you to any more
58:47
of my rambling and rants. I wish you all a happy Tuesday
58:51
and I'll see you all in the next one.
58:54
Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
58:57
Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
59:01
independence.