Latest / The SPY Trader / Witching Hour: The $5.7 Trillion Market Pivot

Transcript

Witching Hour: The $5.7 Trillion Market Pivot · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  Welcome back to another episode of Spy Trader .
• 0:05
  I am your host , Penny Wise , and it is bright and early at 6 am here on the West Coast on this Friday , March 20th , 2026 .
• 0:14
  Grab your coffee and maybe a lucky charm because we are heading into one of the most unpredictable days on the financial calendar .
• 0:22
  We are talking about a Triple Witching Friday , and the charts are looking a little spookier than usual .
• 0:28
  Let’s dive into what is happening across the indices .
• 0:31
  The S&P 500 , which many of you track through the SPY or VOO , finished yesterday at 6,606.49 .
• 0:41
  That is the lowest close we have seen in four months .
• 0:44
  More importantly for the chart watchers out there , the S&P has officially slipped below its 200day moving average for the first time in nearly a year .
• 0:54
  In traderspeak , we are seeing a shift from a buythedip mentality to a selltherip environment .
• 1:00
  Over in the tech world , the Nasdaq100 , or the QQQ , is trading around 594 dollars .
• 1:07
  It feels like a bit of AI fatigue is setting in as investors start to distinguish between the real winners and those with just a lot of valuation bloat .
• 1:16
  Today’s big story is the Triple Witching .
• 1:19
  We are looking at the quarterly expiration of 5.7 trillion dollars in options This is the largest March expiry we have seen since 1996 .
• 1:29
  When you combine that with the S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing , expect some wild price swings in that final hour of trading , often called the Witching Hour .
• 1:40
  On the macro side , we are feeling the Warsh Shock .
• 1:44
  The nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell has sent the bond market into a tizzy , pushing the 10year Treasury yield near 4.29 percent .
• 1:55
  This comes right after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent while actually raising their inflation forecast for 2026 .
• 2:05
  To top it off , we saw a surprise loss of 92,000 jobs in February , which has everyone whispering that dreaded word : stagflation .
• 2:16
  Looking at specific sectors , the Technology sector is facing a reality check .
• 2:22
  Micron , ticker MU , reported record revenue of nearly 24 billion dollars , but the stock actually pulled back because investors are worried about their 25 billion dollar capital expenditure plan .
• 2:35
  Financials are also a major red flag right now ; the XLF exchangetraded fund plummeted below its own 200day moving average , which often signals broader trouble for the rest of the market .
• 2:48
  It is not all bad news , though .
• 2:51
  FedEx , or FDX , was a rare bright spot yesterday .
• 2:55
  They reported a double beat , and shares surged nearly 10 percent in afterhours trading to 390 dollars .
• 3:02
  They are finding ways to save billions through their Network 2.0 optimization , proving that efficiency is king right now .
• 3:09
  On the flip side , Real Estate via the VNQ is feeling the heat from those high yields , returning only about 1.3 percent over the last year .
• 3:18
  So , what is the game plan for today and the week ahead Given the technical breakdown in the SPY , it is time to get a bit more defensive .
• 3:27
  I recommend rotating some of that capital out of the techheavy QQQ and into the Vanguard Health Care ETF , ticker XLV .
• 3:36
  Companies like Eli Lilly and Medtronic are acting as safe havens and showing strong earnings .
• 3:43
  If you are looking for growth , look outside the U.S.
• 3:46
  The Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF , or VWO , has returned over 31 percent in the last year , doubling the S&P’s performance .
• 3:56
  I also like gold here .
• 3:58
  SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD , is hitting record highs over 4,600 dollars an ounce .
• 4:05
  It is a great hedge against the geopolitical tension and inflation fears we are seeing .
• 4:11
  Finally , for income seekers , the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury bond , TLT , is looking interesting near the 85 to 87 dollar level , though you have to be careful with interest rate volatility .
• 4:24
  My summary for you today : use the liquidity from today's Triple Witching to trim those highpriced tech positions like Nvidia or Broadcom .
• 4:33
  Reallocate into resilient value stocks like FedEx or international core holdings like VXUS .
• 4:40
  Stay sharp , watch those levels , and I will see you back here in a few hours .
• 4:45
  Happy trading !