Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Sports Betting Roundtable with Todd Fuhrman | Part 2

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Sports Betting Roundtable with Todd Fuhrman | Part 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the favorite some Brandon Kravitz, your host,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: alongside the Prime Minister of DJA Nation, Stuckey Evan Abrams.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Are stats sound here as well?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: We've got Todd Ferman making his way back for part
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: two of our betting Roundtable. We have got a load
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: to get into with Todd. How has Ai reshaped the
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: landscape of betting? Do edges even exist? And what about
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the psychology of the modern day sports better?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get in to all of that. Kendra, we
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: miss you. Come back safely from Africa.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I know that she's gonna love the addition that I
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: have in this week's parlay presented by Draft Kings, where
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: the crown, of course it is all yours.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flat that we are gonna
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: plant our flag on a Super Bowl future that none
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: of you out there are allowed to hold us too. Okay,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: these are not our official picks. These are like pre
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: appetizer picks for Super Bowl futures.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Are you guys with me on that?
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: Like?
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: This can't be our official super Bowl.
• 1:20
  Speaker 5: Bet Listen when you hear what I'm gonna give you
• 1:23
  Speaker 5: this can't be my official Super Bowl bet, so this
• 1:25
  Speaker 5: is That's not how this is gonna work.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: So it's fine, Well, I'll get us started. Thirty to one.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a shot on Kendris Jacksonville Jaguars. I
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: like the defense, I like the improvements that we've seen
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: from Trevor Lawrence. They had their taste of the playoffs
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: last year against the Buffalo Bills. But if this team
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: is able to improve off of last year, and let's
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: not forget they made all of those wild improvements on
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the back stretch of the season without a guy that
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: was drafted number two overall that can play multiple positions
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: if you'll let him in, Travis Hunter, that's a huge,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: huge addition to this team. I love what Liam Cohen
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: has done to the offense. So at thirty to one
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: sounds mighty nice, Stucky, what about you.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: I'll touch on this more in our offseason odds, but
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Texans. I think they have
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: one of the best rosters in the NFL. Love what
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: they did in the offseason, and I think the hate
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: for C. J. Stroud's probably just gone a little bit
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: too far right just his last game this is a guy.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: He was still a top ten and Epapri play last
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: year despite a disastrous injury riddal offense around him that
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: should improve this year. The pass catcher should be better
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: like what they did in the draft. That we know
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: what the defense is. The schedule is tricky, the division
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: is potentially trickier this year. But that's why I want
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: to buy upside on the Texans. I think defense, we
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: had our run of you know, Brady Maholmes quarterbacks, and
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: then we saw last year with the Seahawks. I think
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: we're gonna have a couple of year run of defenses
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: coming out on top in the end. And the Texans
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: are obviously right in the thick of that discussion. So
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: I think there's a little bit of value on Houston
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: in seventeen to one at draftings.
• 3:09
  Speaker 6: Right now.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: We will need some wild improvements from one CJ. Stroud,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: but we have only stayed in the AFC South. Evan
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: take us out of that division, please.
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: Okay, So you took the Jaguars, He liked the Texans.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: I was I wanted a long shot here, and I
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: was looking at the NFC South and I said, I
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: can't choose Falcons Panthers Saints.
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: I was going to pick one of them, forget it.
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: I am actually going to tell you right now to
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: take five dollars, just five dollars, and I want you
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: to put it on the Titans, because I think at
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty to one, I think I took
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: Tennessee over six and a half on the wind totals pod.
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: I do think there is improvement there. I honestly don't
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: love this division, and now at this point, the Colts
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: are going to win the division, so I think we're
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: all fair and safe there.
• 3:56
  Speaker 6: But I do think one hundred and fifty to one
• 3:58
  Speaker 6: for the Titans is.
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: Ridiculous, and I do believe you would be able to
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: exchange that ticket for more money at some point. So
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: I'm going to tell you at one hundred and fifty
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: to one to put five dollars there.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: Can you back a division to win the Super Bowl?
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: That's what we should do.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, AFC south All, I asked I
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: give you one task, Evan. You had twenty six, twenty
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: eight other teams to choose from the Tennessee Titans.
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: I didn't see what you guys were choosing, and I
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: already looked at the bottom here, I said to myself,
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: I want to choose one eighty to one or longer
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: to have some fun, and I am I'm going to
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: continue to circle my way around the Titans.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: All right, well, just throw the Colts in there too.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I guess we'll take the whole division.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: Those are our.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Those are our draft Kings, plant the flag super Bowl
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: futures that none of you are allowed to hold us too.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Later on in the season, especially Evans, shout out to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the AFC South, our DK plant the Flag picks presented
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: of course by DraftKings.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Back at it with Part two of our Gambling Around Table.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Co founder of at the Board, former odds maker CBS
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: sports betting analyst Todd Furman, back at it. I can't
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: believe we roped you in for two of these, Todd.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: This is great.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean and stuck goes. Hey, do you think
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: you want to be part of a betting round table?
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: I figure ten fifteen minutes, like a quick panel, and
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: then I get hoodwinked. Here I am doing a part two, guys,
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: eating into about six and a half hours of my
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: free time that should be spent and allocated towards Stanley
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: Cup playoff prep along with the World Cup that's waiting
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: on the horizon as well.
• 5:26
  Speaker 6: We handcuffed you to the chair, so you're here for
• 5:28
  Speaker 6: one more.
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: I was gonna say, you never know exactly what kind
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: of situation you're going to get drawn into, but after
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: twenty years of working with Stuck, I should have some
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: idea go ahead of time, and so I blame myself
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: above all else.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: Just bet the Hurricanes live if the game goes to overtime.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: There your work is done.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Look at that.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: See and now we've opened up your evening today, gents,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the robots AI where the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: edges exist in the psychology of the modern sports Better
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: let's start with a banger. Is AI actually creating an
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: edge and sports betting right now? Or is it just
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: speeding everybody up towards the exact same answer, Todd, Where
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: do you land on AI and how we're all using
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: this these days?
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: I won't go as far as saying it's necessarily creating
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: an edge because I believe, like we discussed earlier, that
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: if you knew what you were doing with sports betting
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: before you know, you're going to have the right inputs
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: and be able to ask the right questions in terms
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: of fine tuning your models and getting closer to the
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: end result. But what I will say it's done, at
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: least from my end, is it sped up. Some of
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: the process retrieving information has gotten significantly faster. It used
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: to be you can use lists on social media to
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: try and follow beat writers, but now you can run
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: queries and get a lot of that information into one dashboard,
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: even faster than I ever thought possible. So, of course,
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: as a sports better what does that necessarily mean. It
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: doesn't mean you're getting everything done in ninety minutes. They
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: used to take you six to eight hours. You're getting
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: your first part done, and you're getting into more and
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: more of the nuance, trying to drill a little bit
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: deeper and uncovering angles that you feel aren't necessary being
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: captured in the betting market that's there. But I think
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: all of us would be naive to think that it's
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: only helping us on one side of the counter, because
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: you do have a lot of folks on the other
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: side of the counter that are fine tuning their processes.
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: They're getting better and better information, and like we talked
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: about with prediction markets. The idea of peer to peer
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: betting is one thing, but it's not a peer of
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: a twenty two year old sitting across the country that's
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: a market maker. It's some of the biggest financial institutions
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: that are out there, and they have a lot stronger
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: weaponry at their disposal than most of us do as individuals.
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: So I think you have to be smart and not
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: think you're necessarily reinventing the wheel, but if you can
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: fine tune your process a little bit and give yourself
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: a slight competitive advantage to make sure you're knowing the
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: right questions to ask, because any model builder will tell
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: you garbage in leads to garbage out, and if you
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: don't know where you're starting from, you're not going to
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: get a great end product.
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: Well, yes, that was stole my talking point. Like, it's
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: not just one side of the counter that has accessed AI.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: So I do think it's speeding everything up to more
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: efficiency For me personally, I use it to speed up,
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: as Todd alluded to, all of the administrative stuff that
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: takes so long every week, you can and then just
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: questions that you want to ask. It makes that so
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: much easier, so that you can spend time on some
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: of the things that I like to spend time on,
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: right matchups, scheme, all those qualitative things where I do
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: still think that there is edge to be had, but
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: you you have it. I have access to it. Everyone does,
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: and it's it's how you use it. It's the questions
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: that you ask, as Todd said, But so there's the
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: other side of the counter. So for me, it's just
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: it's it makes life so much easier and speeds up
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: some of the things that I spend time on that
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: weren't really value add but I needed to do.
• 8:55
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I tend to use it to a ton of kind
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: of test ideas to see what gets spin out if
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: I have a thought on a particular angle, seeing what
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: the bots tell me about it, and I use it
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: as more of an exploration tool than anything else. But
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: before we move off of AI, which we're not done
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: with this conversation yet, I would like somebody to give
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: me a direct query that they are throwing into chat,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: GPT or claude or whatever it is you're using, because
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I think there's so much conversation about AI and sports
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: betting now, but very few podcasts that I listen to
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: or articles that I read specifically say what those sharp
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: questions are. And I would love to be the difference here, Evan,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: where do you land on this?
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: So I think I would just start by saying this, Ilean.
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: And I think AI is a very personal thing. I
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: think everyone tends to use it a little bit differently
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: based off of whatever they're trying to accomplish. I never
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: type anything into whether it's Chat, GPT, Gemini, Rock Claude,
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: whatever it is that I don't have already given it
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: pieces of information to help them answer the question back
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: to me. I feel like, you know, helping it build databases,
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: helping it, you know, find something maybe in terms of information.
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: Like if I'm I'm using AI mostly to help it.
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: Answer something I've already given it, because at least what
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: I've learned is AI is very stupid in a lot
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: of different ways, and unless you help it give direction
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: and know, whether that's coding or asking a question about
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: a database or doing whatever needs to be done, it's
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: helping me do things faster, but it doesn't necessarily mean
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: that the platform is smart in itself.
• 10:37
  Speaker 6: And I think that's the best piece of advice I've.
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: Used it for definitely still hallucinates.
• 10:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah, that's hallucinations.
• 10:45
  Speaker 7: And right there with you guys.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think everybody that's using it needs to
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: make sure they provide a sanity check or a litmus test,
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: whatever terminology you want to try and use. You'd be
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: amassed how much bad information it fits out in terms
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: of player availability and factoring guys that haven't been on
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: Team a's roster for two to three years and suddenly
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: they're showing up when you want to try and have
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: it model out a box score. So just because AI
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: is there doesn't mean it's a shortcut to anything that
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: you want to try and do in the sports betting space.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So, like a specific example, I asked chat GPT to
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: break down the difference between pace and efficiency in the NBA,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and it gave me quite the lengthy breakdown of that
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: and then asks you at the end, is there a
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: way that you would like me to price this and
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: do a point spread adjustment those sorts of things.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: That's how I use it.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I also have had it create Excel spreadsheets for me
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: that basically really like pre built models for NBA series
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: pricing and things like that. Does anybody want to offer
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: up a specific query they have given chat GPT so
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: that people out there can understand what the hell should
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: you even be typing into these apparatuses.
• 11:58
  Speaker 7: I'll leave that to you. Boys. Magician can't reveal all
• 12:02
  Speaker 7: of his tricks.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at my by claud right now.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: The last couple. I mean, I'm just doing off season stuff.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: So like, uh one, I just need ah in my
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: NFL excel. I need a summary of all the player movement,
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: draft picks, coach movement for every single team, right that,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: and I want to format it in a certain way
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: and it can It did that in three minutes now
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: I check it and there there are still some some
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: things that we'll be missing here there. But it saved
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: me so much time college football off season work, with
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: all of the changes that happen every year, just being
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: able to have one database where you ask it about
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: a certain team, you know, tell me about who left,
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: who came, and then you spit it out. And I
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: went by conference by team in this format, and it's
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: all stuff that I would be doing manually before, right
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: i'd have And I'll still go through all the preview magazines,
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: read everything and go through local podcasts, but I would
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: be writing stuff down like I would be writing down, okay,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: this is who left, and then I would put it
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: in uh to my I have Google sheets Excel for teams,
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: and I would then have to translate into there. This
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: can just populate all of that and save me so
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: much time in going through all of the off season work.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: And then it's just you know, also using it to
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: refine processes and models and asking questions. But the biggest
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: thing for me right now, it's May so like June one,
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: is that when I really really really dive into football
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: prep and so, but I've started to dabble all of
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: those off season tasks that you do to like catch
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: up with teams and move like that. It just saves
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: me hours and hours. Then you can spend more time
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: on models, on digging into okay, let me look at this,
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: let me look at that, and it just frees up
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: your time where you could could potentially find more edges
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: and refine your process, which you need to do over time.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: Is one of the most difficult things in this gig
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: is that we're talking about the market becoming more efficient
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: over time, which it always will, but this is all
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: we're talking about AI, prediction, markets, legalization. All that is
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: sped up efficiency on main markets. But I've been doing
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: this for over twenty years, right, I have my processes,
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: my ways of doing it, I have my models already exist.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: Where do you find time to kind of revamp your process?
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: Go in and look, because it's just day to day grind,
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: you're onto the next slate, You're onto the next slate.
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: Well.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: Being able to have a more efficient and this this
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: is applicable to in season work as well, but being
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: able to do all those administrative tasks more efficiently will
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: free up more time to look at some of those
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: other things, to look at process and be able to
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: help you evolve, which you need to do over time,
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: evolve and adapt, which is difficult to do when you
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: have your your stuck in your ways and it's you're
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: you're in the middle of the grind. So that's the
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: biggest benefit for me, I nowhere close to an expert.
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: Like one of my main topics or I guess to
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: do on the top of my to do list is
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: to just immerse myself in this during my quote unquote
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: off season. So there's there's a lot so for me
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: to learn.
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: One thing I will say for stock, like tasks is
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: something I use a lot of, which is like if
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: you're doing your job and I was trying to do yours,
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: something like a refresh every morning of transaction logs through
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: like an API or something like that, where like you
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: set that at a different point and it like feeds
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: into like.
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: A Google sheet.
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: Just something like that that happens automatically that you can
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: and set up. Is how I've been using it more
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: and more. And one thing I've done what you're talking about,
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: the AI stuff, Like I spent a few days and
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: gathered every piece of writing I've ever done and all
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: these databases and just put it into AI. So now
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: if like I'm trying to remember if I've written something
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: about something or whatever, it already has all that information.
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: So that saves me time. So just different things like that.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: So I mean that just makes you more easily kidnapped,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I think by the robots and they take over.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: But yes, that's good, it's good to know.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, essentially AI is an effective assistant if
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: you let it be. A couple of days ago, I
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: asked AI, what's the best sports book in America? And
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: it did not shock me that the answer was Draft
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Kings and highlighted some of DK's same game parlays promos.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Chalk one up to AI because they were correct about that.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: Yes, edges still exist.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into that, but first a word
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: about my favorite sports book.
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• 17:42
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours, Brandon.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: One thing I'll say, just the rep put a ball
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: on that conversation is there's no one way to utilize
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: that and it can be overwhelming to think about and
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: to if you haven't like, just go in and are
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: no matter what you're doing. And it doesn't it doesn't
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: be related to sports betting, and it can help you
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: in a lot of different ways in life. But just
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: go in and start. And if you are looking to
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: build something we talked about this last episode, it does
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: allow you. It is easier for you to start now
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: because of AI, but you just have to go in
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: and you have to just get dirty, get your hands dirty,
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: and start and then figure it out over time.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: It's like anything completely agree and that's the beauty of
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: it is it will educate you, answer your question, give
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: you some new ideas, and then there will be prompts
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: at the end of those messages that allow you to
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: continue the conversation. And so it will take you in
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: directions that you didn't even necessarily know you were going
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: to go in. And I think that that's where ultimately
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: it can be very helpful. What edges still exist? Are
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: they out there to be found?
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: Todd? What is the most beatable market out there today?
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Is there one?
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: So so I'm not going to say there's one particular
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: market all paint Thugh with a little bit of a
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: wider view on things, I think short tournaments oftentimes give
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: you an opportunity. So whether you're looking at what we're
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: going to see with the World Cup that's right around
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: the corner, markets like this, everyone I say everyone, and
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: I say a little bit facetiously is operating from a
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: level playing field because odds makers don't have the data
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: to try and adjust nearly as quickly on the fly
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: around tournaments like this as they would over the course
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: of an eighty two game NBA regular season a seventeen
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: week NFL season, where data points continue to accumulate and
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: everybody is able to factor that into your calculation. So
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: oftentimes the shorter event, I feel like you can find
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: a bigger edge, and whether that's a World Cup, whether
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: it's an Olympics, or to a lesser extent, you know,
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: in my opinion, and I don't handicap the sport religiously,
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: I'd say tennis tournaments as well, you can outrun short
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: term variants for these short term events, and if you're
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: committed to watching these sports and combining the analytics with
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: trusting your eyes, there are still some edges to be
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: found in that, more so than some of these sports
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: seasons that are going to go on for longer periods
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: of time. And the term that all of us as
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: sports better is typically fall back on regression or normalization,
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: where typically what goes up must come down, and I
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: think we all kind of fall victim to it during
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: a college football season where twelve games isn't significant enough
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: sample size where you can outrun those numbers for a while,
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: but oftentimes you know you're going to find a way
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: back to the pack. So I would say shorter tournaments
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: and shorter events can provide a little bit more opportunity
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: sometimes than a lot of the models can capture.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Evin Where do you fall on this? Where does the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: beatable market today if it exists?
• 20:41
  Speaker 6: I kept nodding here because I really like the idea
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: of small tournaments. I hadn't thought about that.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's good, that is very right.
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: I will just say this info is always king beyond that,
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: it's new markets. In my opinion, anything you ever see
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: posted that maybe wasn't there last season, I always feel
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: like it's worth an extra look. In my opinion, they
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: started posting things about like speed of pitches, I think
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: one year, like whenever you see new things posted, it
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: always grabs my attention and I try to see if
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: it's priced correctly because I feel like there still is
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: intricacies there. And then the other thing is just live
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: in general, like I do feel like there is niche
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: opportunities depending on the sport, in the live environment. I
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: will just say one thing, make sure you're doing it
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: at breaks, or you're watching a feed that matches up
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: with what you're seeing, or just pull the brakes and
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: don't do it yet. You can model it, you can
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: see how you're doing. But that is the one big
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: thing there. Todd's gonna hate me for this, but I
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: do feel like there's still an opportunity in the NHL
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: playoff pull the goalie, early puck line, pricing, things of
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: that nature. I still stare at that all the time
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: and I do better, probably more than I should, but
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: I think that live area is where it is.
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: I'd rather you say that than the shots on goal market,
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: because if I see more social media meltdowns from people
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: going they thought they cashed a ticket, they didn't digging
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: through shot logs for an entire game. Sometimes you reap
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: what you say. Oh and if a market is that
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: convoluted the lee can't figure it out, I want no
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: part of betting it myself.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there was a good disclaimer there, Evan about live betting.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I have definitely fallen victim to that, or you not
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: only see something go against you fifteen seconds later. I
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: think we've all had that happen. But to me, the
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: more frightening live bet is when you take let's say
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: it's a plus seven and a half at minus one
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: ten and right after you hit the button it will
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: flip to a minus one twenty five.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: That stuff drives me up the wall. And that doesn't.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Really happen during commercial breaks, or during halftimes or in
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: between quarters. So those are the things that you have
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: to be careful of. My one issue though, with betting
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: live is that you are, especially the deeper you go
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: into any game, you are betting strictly against an algorithm,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and that frightens me. As a sports better, I feel
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: like I've got a better shot against the market that
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I do against some pre built system that I don't
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: fully understand.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: So those are the falls from I.
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: Think you're spot on, and I can cite one of
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: the most prominent offshores that I'm sure you guys have
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: tinkered with in one capacity or another. There's a reason
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: when you're betting in game limits for a sport like hockey,
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: your pregame limits are twenty percent of what you can
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: get in game on a hockey total this time of year.
• 23:19
  Speaker 7: That's not by coincidence.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: It's because they trust the numbers, they trust the math,
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: and they trust the trials that are there that they're
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: not trying to match wits from an information standpoint. And
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: I'll go one step further to what Evan said kind
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: of about the latency issue that's there For me personally,
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: what I found when it comes to live betting, I
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: like those logical breaks, not just because you feel like
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: you have a chance to the algorithm. You don't become
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: prisoner of the moment, allow your emotions to get the
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: best of you, and as any sports better can attest to,
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: as soon as you decide to get emotional about your decision,
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: whether it's betting a game, chasing your losses, whatever it
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: may be. Take an extra beat. Make sure that you're
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: not just coming with a knee jerk reaction unless you've
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: done this over and over again and you had a
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: game plan coming into a particular test that you weren't
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: able to grab a three and a half. On a
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: football game, a team kicks a field goal on an
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: opening drive, different story, then by all means bet into it.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: But the last thing you want to do is try
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: and bet into a thirty or forty cent straddle with
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: a lot of these live markets with an impulse reaction
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: above all else.
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: The scariest live bet for me is when I get
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: accepted for the amount that I've got right away.
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: But I will.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: So we were saying that the real edge is the
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: real edge is court siding. I do think that one
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: of the biggest There's so many things that I could
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: go with this. I think you're going to ask this later,
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: but it's.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: Well hold on a quick pause. For those that don't know.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Court siding is when you're at the game itself and
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: you're actually beating the live line because you are witnessing
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: the game in real time.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: But I think in my ten years, the live betting
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: will look and if anyone can solvate the content for
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: live bettings, it's very difficult. It can make a lot
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: of money, but we're going to have like true live feeds.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: I feel like that's one thing that I think, like
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: every household while the live it is like no delays,
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: and then micro betting is very like I feel like
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: that's something that we would It's hard to imagine now,
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: but I think in like ten years that like everyone
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: will have a truly live stream of.
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: What you're You're gonna have a chip in your brain
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: by then, stuck. You're not even gonna need a live stream.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah you're just watching.
• 25:21
  Speaker 7: Yeah, right there, squad box right in front of your face.
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: But where you said, where? Where do the edges still exist?
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: Edges exist everywhere in every single sport. The obvious answer is,
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: you know, the thinly traded, lower liquidity props and offerings. Right,
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: sportsbook trying we talk about AI trying to price well,
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: think about just take one game, Take the Spurs Thunder
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: game last night ten years ago.
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: What would you been.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: Able to bet on that and most sports books the
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: side and the total first half? Yep, Yeah, think about
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: how many options and then when you get into correlations
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: if there's edges there, and then you can actually bet
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: whatever you want same game parlays. But think about all
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: the player props, all the combinations. You're talking millions, I
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: don't know, like all the potential iterations when you're combining
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: them all. So there's it's very difficult for if you can. Again,
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: this goes back to the specialization, but there's a reason
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: that these are. You know, there's lower liquidity, but there's
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: the biggest edges of there. You look at when Kerner
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: releases a prop, even in the NFL, I mean it'll
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: move sometimes four yards like twenty five percent within now.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: But there's still edges in every single sport. Like let's
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: just take the NFL way more efficient than it used
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: to be, right even openers, right openers, especially at the
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: at the books that kind of set the market on
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: this day or way more efficient than they used to be.
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: But if there was no edges in the NFL, we
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: would have the market setting books set the line. It
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: wouldn't move until close Well guess what it does. And
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: they're still moving on game day in the.
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: NFL and SID But that's opinions as well, Like that's yeah,
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: a lot.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: But there's trust me. There are people that have an
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: edge that are betting lots and lots of money on
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: game day in the NFL the day before. There are
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: still edges in every single sport.
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: That's liquidity, though I don't think they're nearly as price sensitive.
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: It's just trying to move as much freight as they
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: possibly can. And those guys will tell you that a
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: half point or full point, they can't factor in but
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: one thing, and maybe you guys agree or disagree. I
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: feel like now, if we were to go back a decade,
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: there was a lot more consensus amongst sharp betters, all
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: finding themselves on the same side. Now, it feels like,
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: whether it's college basketball or the NFL, there's significantly more
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: two way action, especially around key numbers on all games.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: Instead of the days where you'd see some of these
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: prices open up at two and a half and people
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: wouldn't care. They'd still be laying five and a half, six,
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: six and a half around some of the keys. I
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: don't get the feeling that we see one way traffic
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: same way we do now in twenty twenty six then
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: we would have back in say twenty sixteen or even
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: earlier than that.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's that's more players, more liquidity, there's more
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: just pure math guys right that are saying like, all right,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: this this number has gone too far. Fi I'm betting
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: it the other way, and you see that way more
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: often than you used to. You you're totally spot on there, Todd.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: It's one of the things that I raised my eyebrow
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: on when we talk about the efficiency of NFL sides. Obviously,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not pushing back on the idea or the notion
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: that they are efficient, but that there aren't edges to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: be found. Why would we spend so much time and
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: energy betting this stuff if there weren't edges to be found?
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: And then, to Stucky's point, lines move so you can
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: get ahead of it.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: Evan, Well, we spend time on it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: It's super pow. We spend time on it because it's yeah.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: But we bet well too. Why would we bet everybody?
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: Because because everybody, like a smart person, would tell you
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: you should go and entire NFL season, be betting like
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: two or three sides a year, like, But no one's
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: going to do that, because that's We're living in different worlds,
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: in different spaces where it's the most popular thing, but
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: I think at the moment it's an oblong ball where
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: there's a ton of different factors, Like there's easier sports
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: to handicap. It's just the you know fing NFL, I
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: think is where you end up. I do that's the
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: truth in.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: This is where the edges the edges wherever you're you're winning,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: that's where that's where the edge.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: NFL is difficult though, because obviously it becomes more efficient
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: when you have over time, but it's it's more difficult
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: to check yourself because of the sample size and where
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: are you slipping or not right. It's different than a
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: baseball game. You look at the number, say you're betting
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: baseball series, so the number of bets that you'll have
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: in a baseball season compared to an NFL season, So
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: that that's one thing that you struggle to kind of
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: grade yourself just on a year to your basis. But
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: the market is evolving so quickly that you want to
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: make sure that you're not falling behind. But the sample
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: size of bets over one NFL season is not going
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: to be really significant. So that's one thing that I
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: definitely struggle with.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I will Evan I will definitely be betting more than
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: two sides next NFL season.
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: Same here, I will say along the NFL lines, my
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: betting pattern has changed over the years as well. I'm
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: much more apt to bet some of these games, whether
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: it's Sunday night or Monday morning, with what I'll call
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: asymmetric information and just hoping that what I've seen throughout
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: the course of the day on Sunday and injury here
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: there hasn't been factored in. Whereas years ago, I'd want
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: to have the perfect information. I'd want the injury reports
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to be out there, and
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: I think as I confidence either grows or wanes, I'm
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: much more likely to continue to add to that position
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: throughout the week, knowing that I'm treating it almost like
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: a stock portfolio that I can wait to cost average
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: around some of these numbers, that yeah, i may not
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: be able to get my full position at the number
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: I want, but I'm going to at least have a
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: little bit of exposure I can either add to it
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: or in a lot of cases, be able to buy
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: off in middle. If I've late two and a half
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: and I could take four, whatever it may be, I
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: would have heard.
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: That, although I would say, I'm I I just ran
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: the numbers here. Thanks to Clough, I'm lifetime eighth in
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: the NFL beating a quarterback news. I don't think I've
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: ever wont to bet. I remember the one year I
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: would bet. I was like, Kyler Murray's going to be
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: out again this week, I'm betting against the cards. The
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: line's going to move, and then they would, and then
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: they won with like a different backup for like do
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: you remember this, and then they would still cover.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: When you're talking about a Kyler Murray injury and Kyler
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: Murray missing time, you have to be a little bit
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: more specific.
• 31:22
  Speaker 7: Stuck.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this was like it was a second
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: half of all the season. Yeah, exactly, that was something.
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: But yeah, no, I agree.
• 31:30
  Speaker 6: I agree with you there as well.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: Tom.
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: I think the other thing is also information. Fifteen years ago, information,
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: at least when it came across my desk, was dealt
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: with differently than it is today.
• 31:39
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: I just if I'm not sitting around my desk twenty
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: four seven, or I have a few people I'm betting
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: with or working with that are keeping.
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: On top of things.
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: Fifteen years ago, I find out poolholes is out of
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: a lineup, like someone next to me doesn't find out
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: for an hour, the line doesn't move for sixty minutes,
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: like all different types of things are available now. It's
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: like if you're not on the roller coaster and playing
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: the game, you're just kind of behind.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and the delays on other books is now way way, way,
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: way less.
• 32:08
  Speaker 7: It get it gets shorter and shorter.
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think back to the days where I
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: was behind the counter and we'd have our sharpbetters come
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: in and bet games, and you go, I have no idea,
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: so you try and scour the internet and do whatever
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: you could to get the information, knowing full well that
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: within forty five minutes or an hour something was going
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: to break and that that screen was going to light
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: up like a Christmas tree. And it was the cat
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: and mouse game that was significantly different then versus now,
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: where everyone essentially has access to a lot of the
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: information in real time. For the most part, I'm not
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: going to say absolutely everything in college football still remains
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: very much the wild wild West when it comes to
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: getting injury reports and being able to trust some of
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: the accuracy of the information that's out there.
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: Think about back. I talked with Jake Cornegie about the
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: slot back when like you didn't even know what lines
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: were elsewhere? Who find the counter? You have to make
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: a call like that was like the Arizona State scandal.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: You'd got to call and be like, what are you
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: what are you seeing on this game? Where do you
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: guys have to set?
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: And I remember, I remember when the odd screens first
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: came out and you can put them on your phone,
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: and they were just beginning that. Like even before that,
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: it was impossible. You were running from book to book.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, nothing like walking across Las Vegas Boulevard and finding
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: there was a three and a half point difference on
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: an NFL side on a Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately we were
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: born a couple generations too late.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Gentlemen, Yes, it's a great weight loss strategy though, running
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: across the strip like that was. There have never been
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: more touts than there are right now, and I think
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: they're taking a much different form than they used to
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: do the one eight hundred numbers of the past. There's
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: always somebody out there trying to get you to sign
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: up for something. How do you guys see through or
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: how would you suggest people see through real analysis, sports
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: betters that like to share their opinions on social media
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: and tout self promotion.
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: God, I don't think if you look at social media
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: and nobody loses in sports betting. So I'm amazed that
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: somebody it still has nine to five jobs, because I
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: can't tell you how many NASCAR races I watch over
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: the weekend when you know one hundred and fifty to
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: one shot comes home and yet four hundred people somehow
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: have the winner there, and yet the sportsbooks still turn
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: their lights on on a given weekend or an SGP
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: or something along those lines. I still think there are
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: people that do sell their information, that have extremely valuable
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: opinions that are worth monitoring, that have market impact, that
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: have to you have to be cognizant of it. You
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: may not necessarily agree, but if there are certain games
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: that you've circled, you may want to try and front
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: run their information and be able to get down or
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: if they've moved the market too far, go a different direction.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: You know, tout carries such a negative connotation, and rightfully
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: so given the boiler room days of the one nine
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: hundred numbers, where you know fifty percent of the clients
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: we're getting Team A, fifty percent of the clients we're
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: getting Team B. I think there are people out there
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: that are good information sources that sell their information, but
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: the majority of folks that are out there are trying
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: to sell you the sizzle without much substance. And you know,
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: that's kind of the reality of the world we live
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: in now, and unfortunately it's buyer beware.
• 35:01
  Speaker 7: Do your research, do your background.
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: You can poke around, you can run quick search histories
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: on a lot of these guys and girls that are
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: out there. And you know, we use the poker term
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: all the time. If you walk into a room and
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: you can't spot the sucker, more often than not, you're
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: the sucker.
• 35:14
  Speaker 7: I think a lot of that applies.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: To being able to chase the hot hand phenomenon, especially
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: on social media.
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: I always say never ever, I've always said it, never
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: ever buy picks. Now, there are exceptions, but that should
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: be the blanket statement for most people right there are
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: I think, like I subscribe to some pick serves, is
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: I need to know why the lines moved where they were,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: And like Todd said, oh someone released this, I know
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: it's gonna move now. I wanted to bet this. I
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: gotta bet it, or I need to know why this
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: line moved. Is it an injury I don't know about.
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: Oh no, it was this service. So there are a
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: couple of services out there, but at their price range,
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: you're only going to want to pay for that if
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: you're a serious, bigger better for the recreational, better paying
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: people for the lotto's, and you're already at such a
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: disadvantage with those, and now you might as well just
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: go make your own lottos. That's what they are. And
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: there are so many dirty players. The easiest way to
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: kind of filter is what is your long term track record?
• 36:16
  Speaker 6: Do you have one?
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: Can I see it that? I'll plug the Action network
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: app again, if you're a verified expert on there, you
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: can see someone's track record, But you're already it's already
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: hard enough to beat the books and to beat the market.
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: Now if you're also paying someone who probably doesn't have
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: an edge, it makes it even more difficult. So that's
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: my blanket statement. There are exceptions to the rule, but
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: for the most part, there's a lot of grifters out there.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: I will I'll say yeah, if I don't see somebody
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: posting their losses with the same frequency that they post
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: their wins.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: That's always a red flag for me.
• 36:57
  Speaker 6: Evan, No, that's a good approach. I don't mind, Matt.
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: It's impossible these days.
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, when Stuck, Todd, me, everyone started doing this,
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: it wasn't like this, and I think we all could
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: have predicted that this day would come. But it's it's impossible.
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: It is more crowded than I think I ever could
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: have dreamed of. And I think with the evolution of
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: this industry not even a decade old, it's just going
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: to get worse before maybe it gets better.
• 37:19
  Speaker 6: I think at the current moment, it depends on how
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: you look at it.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: If you're just having fun, like and you want to
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: give somebody ten bucks and you want to bet some parlays, like,
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna I'm not going to, you know, hunt
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: you down for that. I just think you need to
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: be careful about what you're doing. And I always tend
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: to think paying for information is a better idea than
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: paying for picks. I know Stuck he says his thing overall,
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: but I've always said that, like, if the thing you're
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: doing and this guy has picks, he's giving you also information,
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: maybe you're profiting on it. Maybe you're just learning something
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: and you're giving him twenty bucks a month or whatever.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: Like you've done worse things before, You've made worse decisions.
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: I just think you need to be thinking about what
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: you're doing. And it is a very difficult space and
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: a difficult world out there for this right now.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Mind that I keep going back to though, anytime I
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: see that the check markification of Twitter, everybody sharing their wins,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: is that that does nothing for the sports better it
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: does me if I were somebody out there that was
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: seeking out good information to place the sports bet, what
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: does the fact that you already want to bet do
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: for me? And I think that more people need to
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: view that view that whole trade by that filter telling
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: you they want to bet does nothing.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: My favorite is the people that have discords that or
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: whatever things where you buy their picks on and then
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: they'll post a bet and then they didn't give it
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: out to the people, and people are applying, well, you
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: didn't give this out and you were celebrating this win
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: and UNO in one hundred. But there's a lot of
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: things that people should at least be aware of. I mean,
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: with photoshop, there are so many fake bet slits. Also,
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: if you just if you're like an agent and you
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: have you can just go on creating. You have your account,
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: you could just put whatever you want in and then
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: avoid the bet you I could put in on betting
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: a million dollars on this game. Also, if you see
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: some really really big bets from some people, a lot
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: of times they're photoshop or that's probably a red flag
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: if they're able to bet that much at some places.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: But there's a lot of fake bet slips, photoshop And
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: then what a lot of people are doing, because what
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: happens is someone will just hit one. Everyone is out
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: for the lottery, so someone will just hit one big lottery.
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: There's always gonna be someone like every day that hits
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: the lottery, right, someone's hitting the lottery every day, Someone's
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: hitting power ball this week. So someone will hit a
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: big one, advertise it and then say look look at me,
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: you want to do this too, come by picks, and
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: then they'll flame out because they can't replicate it. But
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: what people are doing, people need to know there's a
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: lot of people that are just betting one cent on
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: all so many different lotteries every night, hit one, photoshop
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: the slip look that I did. So there's so much
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: misinformation and bad players out there looking to just capitalize
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: on the lot of style betting and capitalizing people. The
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: fomo of it, right, the fomo of social media, of
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: people saying like, look, I bet fifty dollars in one
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: forty thousand, right, who doesn't want to do that? But
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: the fact of the matter is there's a reason why
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: books want you betting those.
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: I feel like that's kind of most prevalent sometimes in
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: certain communities with I mentioned NASCAR before, but I guess
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: golf would be the other one where look, you have
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: a field of one hundred plus golfers, and if you
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: follow ten to fifteen guys that have a clue, you're
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: not going to be able to tail each and every
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: one of them if they're betting three to four outrights
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: a week, so inevitably, if they're covering sixty players in
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: the field, somebody is going to have the winner.
• 40:31
  Speaker 7: And I think you use the right word, they're stuck.
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: San fomo is that people go, oh, you hit the
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: winner of the week before, I'm not going to follow
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: your picks next week. And I guess my best advice
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: is find a handicapper you trust and be willing to
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: go to bat with them through thick and through thin,
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: and trusting that their process is going.
• 40:47
  Speaker 7: To yield results over the course of a longer.
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: Sample size, instead of falling victim to the hot hand
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: phenomenon jumping from Kaeper to Kaeper to Capper to riding
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: a hot streak, which is never going to pay dividends.
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: It's actually so much worse, and so he will do
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: it because you're like, oh, I just person is hitting
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: seventy percent over the past month. Right, might be real,
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: might be not, but say it is like that, no
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: one has that big as we could just be all luck.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: Then you jump on them.
• 41:11
  Speaker 7: No, you should be the exact opposite. You should be fine.
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: Said they have a seventy percent month, you should be
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: shorting their stock.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: Someone that you're Yeah, then someone you're riding with goes
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: through a cold street, you jump off them, and they're
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: probably due for some positive aggressions. So, as Todd said,
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: I think the best thing you can do is if
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: you're just looking to bet for entertainment recreation, which most
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: people are doing, and you're looking to follow someone because
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: you just don't have the time. Right people have lives,
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: and families and jobs. Ride with them over a long run,
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: but make sure they have a long term track record,
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: and then you stick with them long term. That's I
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: think that's the best way to follow someone. And for
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: the most part, no one, you know, ninna percent of
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: people should not be paying for picks.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Agreed, roundtable, complete gentlemen. Todd Furman, Absolute pleasure, my friend,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining the show.
• 41:55
  Speaker 7: Appreciate you guys having me.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode of The Favorite. Shout
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: out to our guests, Todd Furman. Producers David Payne and
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Gifford Gold. Today's show has been presented by DraftKings. The
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Crown is yours.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: We'll see you said. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: hundred Gambler