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Transcript

🚨 The Geopolitical Shift That's About To Shake Europe To The Core... · Neil McCoy-Ward Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_01: The geopolitical shift that's about to shake Europe to its core.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: The news this week, ladies and gentlemen, has been absolutely crazy.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: The last week to two weeks has just been a huge acceleration,
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: a compounding of event after event after event.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: And now that we've come into the sort of hybrid warfare stage,
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: if you Remember the different stages I talked about even six months before
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: the Russia-Ukraine war kicked off.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: You remember the different stages.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: We're now in this hybrid warfare stage which activates before the conventional stage.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: So we've really just gone into that about six to eight weeks into that.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: And now things are starting to move.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: So we've talked before about what happens after this.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: One of those things is Belarus.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: And I want to really bring your attention to that initially today.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: We've got so much to talk about.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to be talking about What's happening with Belarus,
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: we're going to talk about Lithuania,
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: what they've just done,
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: what Latvia's just done,
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: what NATO has just announced,
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: Finland has just announced,
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: what's happening in the Netherlands,
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: the State of the Union from Ursula von der Leyen, what she has said.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: We'll also talk about oil price and where that's going.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: There is so much to actually...
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: So let's get right into it.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: And we're going to begin with what's happening with Belarus.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: Now, it's interesting that this is taking place now,
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: the sort of announcements from Lukashenko,
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: because it was only on Monday, the So, what we've got today then, get ready...
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Belarus has just started their exercises on the border between Poland and Lithuania.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: So they've deployed a lot of tanks on this troop movement, helicopters, all sorts of equipment.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_01: That they've just started these drills.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: These are real fast drills that have come in.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: And you remember I talked about the Swalki Gap as well.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: This was the key thing I mentioned on Monday.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: This is a key region.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: That sort of connects Kinellingrad with Europe.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: This is with NATO and it's a really important key, very small area.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: So I want to read through some of the things that this article talks about
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: and it will really make things make sense as we go through everything.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: So they've deployed then their mechanized tank battalions and more border protection
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: and counter drone operations.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: And this is across 104 kilometer distance.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: Polish-Lithuanian corridor.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: This is the key corridor we've talked about.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: So what did I mention before?
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: I said that before the actual Russia-Ukraine war kicked off,
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: we talked about how Belarus and Russia were doing those exercises on the border.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: And what I was talking about was how this is a bit unusual
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: because Russia didn't pull back their troops after the exercise and they weren't So,
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: Belarus
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: has begun a four-day exercise now.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: This is a fast, rapid-fire exercise.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: They've just started it right away after Poland's announcements as well.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: So, they're doing these exercises on the border, right on the border with Poland and Lithuania.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: And They've started using drone guidance as well.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: So they're actually using these relay stations, a lot of drone guidance.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: So it's all tank battalions training on the border right now.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: And they're also doing,
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: this is from Lukashen,
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: He said they're doing counter-sabotage operations and defense
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: against Ukrainian attacks.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what he has said.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: And always remember,
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: what I'm reading out is not my opinion when I'm reading from the articles,
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: by the way.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm telling you what each side is saying.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: And you've got to take that middle ground to try
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: and figure out what is actually correct, what's propaganda, what's not propaganda.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: So the exercises are taking place near the Sualqui Gap.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: That is where it's doing.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: This is what separates Belarus from the Kaliningrad Enclave.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: This is 15 kilometers from the Polish border that all these troops have just deployed.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: They've described this as purely defensive and they said that they're just doing it
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: because they're concerned by what they're seeing with Poland.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: And this is the way it always goes.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at all of the exercises and the operations, they always say they're defensive.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Every military says this, they're defensive.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't matter if they're putting artillery on the ground and firing.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: They still class that as defensive.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: So you've got to sort of distinguish behind the semantics of that word as well.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: There isn't really any such,
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: well there is such a thing as defensive operations,
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: but what you're seeing is not defensive.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: They're calling it defensive, so it's attacks in order to defend.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's a bit like your 1984 word weaving, as it were.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: So Even Lukashenko actually visited the training area today,
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: and he even last,
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: it was about five days ago,
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: he went and assessed the combat readiness,
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: those were his terms, the combat readiness of all of the troops.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, a quick one,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: because a lot of people say,
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: can you show a map,
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Neil, because I don't know I'm in America or I'm in Canada or whatever.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know where some of these places are.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: So a bit of context, if you're not from Europe, here's obviously Russia.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: You can see here, Moscow here.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: There is Belarus, which is, they're considered an ally of Moscow, of Russia.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: Minsk is the capital here.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: Then we have your Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: These are your Baltic states here.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: So they saw that to the, the, the, Northwest here, Latvia, Lithuania on Belarus.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: You have Poland then to the west.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: And this is where some of the exercise are taking place along this corridor.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have Ukraine to the south of Belarus.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to talk about Latvia,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: Lithuania, possibly Estonia, possibly not in today's video.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: So just so you've got context of where these places are.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: So Belarus is training troops right now.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: They said to stop sabotaging.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: Saboteurs, that is what they are saying.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: They're concerned about sabotage.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: And they're preparing their reservists now.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not just the regular military.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: Belarus is actually activating reservists,
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: which is what most of the European militaries are doing.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: I remember years ago when I talked about all this and how the stages would play out,
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: people thought this was crazy talk and nuts,
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: and yet it's quite sad that here we are.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: And this will actually be my last live stream from the studio here on the Isle of Man.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: I said I'd try my best to get one more in for you before I head off.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'm still keeping the house here, yes, but I'll be heading off tomorrow.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: So, let's read out what they've said then.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: It's all the same thing.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: They're all saying the same script at the moment.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: Ensuring martial law and fighting enemy sabotage groups, the ministry has said.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: And I better, before I forget, just mention the sponsor as well of the channel here.
• 8:35
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• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so Lithuania then.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: On the exact same week,
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: in effect,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: this week,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: Lithuania launched its military exercises across 12 municipalities
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: as Russia keeps probing NATO's eastern border.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: So this was another thing that has actually taken place this week.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yet again, we've got now Lithuania deploying.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: We've also got In fact, I'll give you some of the details.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: So they began this on the 14th of September.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: And the exercises involve drones, boats,
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: weapons,
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: wheeled military and civilian transport vehicles,
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_01: troop movement on foot and vehicle.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: And they're saying that they are not using imitation ammunition or pyrotechnics.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_01: They said that everything they use will be the real deal.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: And it's very close to the border there.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_01: What about this one then?
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: This is Latvia.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: This is our next country.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: Latvia is to hold amber blade military exercises.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_01: So this is another one that has just been announced on the border there.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: They're going to use their military.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: They're service members and National Guard fighters to carry out different tasks
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: in various terrain conditions.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: We've also had NATO deployment of a thousand German soldiers to Lithuania.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: So this is another deployment on top of all of these other deployments that we are seeing.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: So what I'm saying, ladies and gents, is this is really, really heating up now.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: So if you thought it was all scaremongering and nothing's going to happen before,
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_01: time's getting short,
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: but you should probably make your plans and be prepared for what is coming.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: So Germany is to deploy remaining soldiers to Lithuania.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: And they said that they're going
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: to be deploying roughly 4,800 German troops are expected to be stationed permanently
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_01: in Lithuania as part of the 45th Panzer Brigade on the eastern flank.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is against Russia, they say.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: German military is turned into compulsory assignments to fill these roles.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: And they said it's because of difficulties recruiting enough volunteers,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: leaving a shortage of specialist personnel.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not surprised that a lot of soldiers or the volunteers don't want to go and sit
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: on the Russian border because they know they will be cannon fodder
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: when this all kicks off.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: So I wouldn't be volunteering myself either.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: So this is, they're literally on the border.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: This is where this base is.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: It is, wow.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: And then German Chancellor, this was Friedrich Meurs, what did he have to say then?
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: He said at the Arctic summit,
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: this took place just a couple of days ago in Finland,
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: the most likely we're seeing the most decisive moments,
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: perhaps weeks or months ahead of us in defending the freedom and peace
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: of our continent.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: So that was on Monday.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: If you didn't see that speech, it was a long, long speech.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: He's basically saying,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: similar to a lot of these European leaders, it's the same sort of script.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: He's saying, the hybrid warfare has started.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's only a matter of time until we retaliate.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: He's saying, they're all saying the same thing.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: We haven't done anything wrong.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: Russia's now striking us with hybrid warfare and other things.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: So he's saying, how long do we wait until we have to do something about this and etc.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: So that is the context of it.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: And I'll give you a little segment of his speech then.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: This is what I see and what I mean.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: If Russia succeeds,
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: he's talking about with Ukraine,
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: this will have an unpredicted and unprecedented consequences for all of us,
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_01: including Germany.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: He said,
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: that's the reason I'm standing here very firm,
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: very clear, and not willing to go back one centimeter.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: This is now our historic duty to do what we can to help this country
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: to preserve peace and freedom in Europe.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we can read between the lines there.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: The next thing that happened,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: I told you there's a lot of news that's happened all in the space of a couple
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: of days, really.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: This is all in two days.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: Finland joins France's forward nuclear deterrence initiative.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll talk about this a little bit as well.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: So this is a, it's not a new plan, but there's a lot of new members coming in.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: They've committed to deepening their defense partnership.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: They're joining the French initiative aimed at strengthening the European security
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: through a nuclear deterrence.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, The problem with that is Russia also has nukes.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: And as we talked about, if China was ever to get involved, forget about it.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: But they've also got nukes.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: There was another thing that happened today which was around Canada.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm guessing we're going to hear from Trump on this very shortly.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: I doubt he'll be happy.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: But Canada has just been accepted into...
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: In fact,
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: we'll talk about that in a second within the United Nations and
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: the European Union predominantly.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: But this nuclear deterrence then is also going to involve...
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: Another Baltic state, it is Estonia.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: So Estonia is also looking to join this as well.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: So they've said they will not station nuclear weapons inside the country during peacetime.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: Peacetime is obviously in bold for a reason.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: Because if they're not in peacetime,
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: then that's when the nuclear weapons will go into those regions.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: Estonia is looking like next.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: They're also discussing it.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: France has a military presence in Estonia as part of the Baltic states as well.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I don't know if you saw this.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: There hasn't really been much news about this at all.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: But the rail network throughout the Netherlands went down.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: So they think it's suspected sabotage.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: And it's really interesting because I thought they were going to say right away,
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: oh, this is Russia.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: Russia has done it.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: But you know what they said it was?
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: They said it's a radical extremist group of farmers.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: Not When I sort of go through the details on this and how coordinated this was,
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not so sure it was farmers.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm wondering why they wouldn't use that opportunity to say,
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: oh, it was Russia or it was the proxies or whoever else.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's hybrid.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: I'm wondering why they're blaming it on farmers.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: It's really, really bizarre to me.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: So, parts of the Netherlands,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: including Amsterdam,
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: were hit by major rail disruption after a suspected sabotage on the tracks.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: This was yesterday morning.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: And it just absolutely decimated the country.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: Country couldn't move is what they are saying very effectively.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: There was 35 different locations where they had put this metal cables on the track.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: So it confused the operating system.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: So they thought that there were trains on the track.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: There was a number of incidents...
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: As a result of this, police have opened a criminal investigation.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: They think it was extremist farmers.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: But when you look at the map, I'm going to show you this.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: Look at this.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: These are some of the places that were affected.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: That would have taken a lot of coordination.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: And you're telling me that these farmers were able to do that and the government,
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: the security services didn't even notice that this had all been coordinated.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just not quite sure.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not buying it.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: So they blamed it on the Farmer's Defense Force, the FDF.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: And they said they know it was them because they were burning bales of hay.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: Leave a comment.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_01: Leave a comment on that one.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: Burning bales of hay.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: How is that?
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_01: It makes absolutely no sense.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, let's talk about the State of the Union address then.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: Ursula had a lot to say there, and this has just been released today.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_01: She's just done her State of the Union address.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: She talked about all the normal things, but a bit weird.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: It was the best of times.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: It was the worst of times.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, a Charles Dickens quote there.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: She said,
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: "...in this world,
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: Europe has chosen to forge its own path,
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_01: and a stronger,
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: independent Europe is now emerging." She's hinting at the US there
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: in case you're not aware.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: So this is what they did.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: They gave Canada associate membership.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: They've said they don't know what this means quite yet.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: But they said it was a jaw-dropping moment because they just gave it out to them.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: They just gave it out to Canada.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: And they said it hadn't gone through other normal processes yet.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: So it's very bizarre that this just happened so quickly.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: But let's talk about the security aspects there.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: She said we should be under no illusions about what's happening here.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let me take it off so you're not reading along.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: Hybrid threats facing Europe are less and less hybrid and less and less threats.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: Cyber attacks and sabotage, arson and drone incursions, they're ramping up every day.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: So the threat level climbs.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: Europe must be prepared.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: She then proposed a new mechanism fashioned on NATO's Article 4
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: that member states would trigger in the event of a hybrid attack.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: You see where this is going?
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_01: So she wants to create this new policy, how Article 4 would be triggered from a hybrid attack.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the problem with hybrid attacks is that they're hybrid in nature,
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: and it's very difficult to actually...
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just wondering what her angle with this is.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's going to allow Europe to more quickly enter this conflict.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: Article 4 in the NATO context means that any country of
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: the 32-strong alliance can call for a meeting urgently to discuss the threat
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: and it's the precursor to defense under Article 5 which stipulates that an attack
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: on one is an attack on all.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: She also said she's creating a European Security Council to bring together
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: the leaders of Ukraine, the UK,
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: Norway and Canada She said this is even more urgent now,
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: given the nature and scale of the risks at play.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: So she wants to escalate this.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: She really wants to escalate this now and get ready.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: The reason someone left a comment on the last video asking about why,
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: if I think that the EU wants to get into a war, why haven't they then?
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: Why haven't they joined this war?
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: And it's very, very clear.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: It's because...
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: The European countries are not prepared for a major, major conflict with Russia right now.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: They're not.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: That's why they're spending so much.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_01: See, they were... Europe was reliant on the US.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: And under Biden, they didn't really need to spend any money.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: They didn't really need to do a lot because they just assumed that
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: the US would fight any war if that kicked off with Russia.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now that Trump has made it clear that's not going to happen...
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: The EU has had to really ramp up spending and build out their military,
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: and that's exactly what they're doing.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_01: But it's going to take time.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: They're not ready right now.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: But mark my words,
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: whenever any country builds up a strong military with a stockpile,
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: they want to use it.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: And especially Europe, they're going to want to use it.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: So this is going to happen.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to happen.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's just a matter of time.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_01: Now then, the...
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: Oil price, let's look at this, $105 a barrel now on Brent, crude is 102, almost 103.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: This has just gone crazy, absolutely crazy.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't see this, again, coming down heavily to pre-war pricing.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, Saudi Arabia has just cancelled the September crude oil shipments to European refiners.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: That's bad.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: That is going to be very bad indeed.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: You're going to see increased fuel prices especially on your vehicles as a result
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: of this is just going to take time to go through.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_01: Now, they called this a conspiracy theory the other day.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: Throughout all the news, they printed the same thing, that the Houthis hadn't hit Saudi Arabia.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_01: They hadn't hit their West oil pipeline.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: They said, oh no, it wasn't.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: You look at now, it was hit in about 30 different places.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: It was very coordinated.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_01: Probably IRGC commanders on the ground, officers, helped to coordinate that.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: They have hit Saudi Arabia hard, really, really hard.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: This is just going to be absolutely crazy.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: On top of this,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: the United States is considering,
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_01: they haven't announced it yet,
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: but halting diesel exports because they want to use it for themselves.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, that's what any country would do.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: The US is the world's second largest exporter and...
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: Behind Russia,
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: which has already halted theirs,
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_01: the US halts theirs, that is a huge portion of diesel exports around the world.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: This is going to be wild.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I was looking into how many barrels of oil a day are offline at the moment,
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: and it's around 10 million barrels now.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_01: With the latest Saudi incident, it's around 10 million barrels a day.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: Now, let me put that into context.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: Because you've got the Middle East aspect, Iran, Hamuz, you've got Russia with Ukraine.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: Ukraine's been absolutely hitting all the Russian refineries,
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: which was helping to produce a lot of the refined goods that we needed, liquids.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: But if you look at how many barrels a day are produced,
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_01: it's exactly 100 million barrels a day right now.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: It was a lot more prior to all of this kicking off.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: But the world had a demand of about 105 million barrels.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now, based on that International Energy Agency plan,
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: they reduced it by 2.5 million barrels a day.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: So their plan was successful.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: But You think of it,
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: we're in a deficit of 2.5 million barrels per day,
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: and they've already drained down these strategic reserves.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_01: So I wanted to do some calculations on that.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_01: And if you look at what each country holds,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_01: the US has got a massive reserve, 285 million barrels.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: But it's only about 40% full.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: Or 60% empty if you prefer.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: Japan's got a really good stockpile.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: They've got a really strong stockpile.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: South Korea's only got tens of millions of barrels.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: Germany has only got 100 million barrels.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: So that's not good.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, even less.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: They've got tens of millions.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: So this is going to draw down so quickly.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: They haven't got a plan to refill, nor does the United Kingdom.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's got almost zero reserves.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of their reserves, they say, are in the North Sea.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's not a reserve.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: You've got to pump it out.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: The things they say, Burnham says, is weird.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: But the OECD, so that's Europe as a group, has about 180 million barrels.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: So their plan is they're going to share,
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: as each country sort of runs out, they're going to share the oil around.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: And they're just going to hope that the war ends and that they can rebuild all
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: the infrastructure.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: That's not going to happen.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_01: So if you look at the commercial stockpiles of all members all around the world,
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: you've got about 2.7 billion barrels.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: So you've got a good reserve.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: But even if you look at, I mean,
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: that would be three years,
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: but it doesn't calculate that because a lot of it's in pipelines
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: and you can't draw it out.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: So if we were to take an average on that,
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: let's call it 400 million barrels that they can actually deploy now.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_01: That's not a lot.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_01: You're talking 160 days of supply before there starts to be some real,
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: real issues, maybe even 50 days, 50 days of supply.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now that doesn't mean that we're going to run out in 50 days
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_01: because there'll always be more supply coming in,
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: but it's probably the lowest levels we've ever seen and that will hit all sorts
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_01: of things.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: It won't hit yet because there's a knock-on effect, but it will hit the supply chains.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: You're going to see more expensive food plus the fertilizer aspect.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: You're going to see...
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: All sorts of things going up.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: I just saw as I started the live stream actually,
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: the UK is talking about a 25% increase on energy bills in January.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't opened the article yet to look at that, but this is what we've got to expect now.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: Higher energy prices.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_01: More conflict, I would say.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: So not looking great,
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: but hopefully I've prepared you quite well with a lot of the stories over
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_01: the last week.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: And there'll be no walk and talk this Friday as I'll be traveling,
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: but I will stream again from the studio when I get to my destination.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: Many of you know where I lived the other part of the year.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: And I'll We'll get going again next week.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: So apart from that, thanks for being a subscriber here.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_01: Really appreciate you.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: Check out Monetary Metals if that's of interest.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: Apart from that, take care, God bless, and I'll see you next week at some point.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: Bye for now.