Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Chad talks AAF and College Hoops with Ian Hartitz and Eli Hershkovitch

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Chad talks AAF and College Hoops with Ian Hartitz and Eli Hershkovitch · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites from the Action Network. I am
0:13
Speaker 1: Chad Millman. Listen, folks, there is a massive story going
0:19
Speaker 1: on in the sports world right now. Uh and it's
0:24
Speaker 1: called the A A F. What is that? Is that?
0:30
Speaker 1: The American Alliance of Football. Is that what they're calling it.
0:33
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you it is. It is. Hold on,
0:36
Speaker 1: don't don't start talking. I haven't introduced you yet, but
0:40
Speaker 1: my guest in the podcast today has taken over coverage
0:44
Speaker 1: of the a F in a way that is unparalleled.
0:49
Speaker 1: There is no one doing it the way he's doing it.
0:51
Speaker 1: He's kind of a combination of you know, Adam Schefter
0:56
Speaker 1: and Matt Hasselbeck and John Gruden and John Madden all
1:05
Speaker 1: rolled into one. The guy has watched more film on
1:08
Speaker 1: the a F than I think I've watched of my
1:11
Speaker 1: kids growing up. It is actually astonishing how much work
1:17
Speaker 1: Ian Heartt's of the Action Network is doing on A
1:22
Speaker 1: a F coverage. What's going on? Brother? Thanks Chad. You know,
1:27
Speaker 1: like I think I'm a homeless man's combination of those
1:30
Speaker 1: lovely people you mentioned. But now I had to step
1:33
Speaker 1: in there early on because it's the Alliance of American
1:36
Speaker 1: Football League. So A lot of people think America is
1:39
Speaker 1: coming first, which it shouldn't most parts of life, but
1:42
Speaker 1: not for the A F. You think I would get that, right,
1:46
Speaker 1: that's all goods only it's only we're all on A
1:47
Speaker 1: week three. Well we're all out A week three. And uh,
1:50
Speaker 1: this morning on the Action Network, you had like another
1:53
Speaker 1: five thousand words story that broke down film rated players
1:57
Speaker 1: gave best odds to win the a F title rated
2:02
Speaker 1: position groupings. Uh, broke down like every element of every
2:08
Speaker 1: player down to snap being played targets. It's kind of amazing.
2:14
Speaker 1: I feel like we have to start from the beginning.
2:15
Speaker 1: So first of all, explain to people how your obsession
2:21
Speaker 1: with the A A F began. Yeah. So, you know, basically,
2:26
Speaker 1: I was full on NFL grind from Week one, the preseason,
2:31
Speaker 1: all the way up until the super Bowl and then
2:33
Speaker 1: you know that pretty much terrible Rams Patriots super Bowl ends,
2:38
Speaker 1: um more, Monday morning comes around. I was just kind
2:40
Speaker 1: of looking at my schedule and uh, you know, free
2:43
Speaker 1: up that much NFL time, there's a there's a lot
2:46
Speaker 1: of free time all of a sudden for a full
2:49
Speaker 1: time NFL writer. And you know, I'm not like some
2:51
Speaker 1: fantasy analysts that try to jump around these different sports.
2:54
Speaker 1: Halfway through and I just saw a nice situation opening
2:58
Speaker 1: up where there was a league that, you know, was
3:00
Speaker 1: eleven and eleven tackle football, which I love more than anything,
3:03
Speaker 1: and uh, there was a kind of painfully lack of
3:07
Speaker 1: reporting and awareness kind of going on with it. So
3:09
Speaker 1: I figured, you know, why not kind of devote some
3:12
Speaker 1: of these cold winter months of my life to this
3:15
Speaker 1: league that at the very least, you know, resembles tackle football.
3:19
Speaker 1: And I don't know, man, I mean I'm not the
3:20
Speaker 1: biggest NBA fan out there or anything, but like I
3:23
Speaker 1: will literally watch like a Division five high school game
3:25
Speaker 1: over you know, professional sports being played, you know, in
3:29
Speaker 1: a different type of games. So I've been all for it,
3:32
Speaker 1: and I'm happy to see that the public. So I
3:34
Speaker 1: began to come around as well. It looks like, look,
3:36
Speaker 1: I mean people should know that, uh, you are a
3:39
Speaker 1: regular uh analyst for the Action Network covering the NFL.
3:43
Speaker 1: You do our matchups column every week, which is amazing.
3:47
Speaker 1: Tell me the amount of work that goes into doing
3:49
Speaker 1: a matchups column for us? Oh yeah, I mean I
3:53
Speaker 1: have a magic manifesto during a week and a wide
3:55
Speaker 1: receiver cornerback during the week. I don't know chat I mean,
3:59
Speaker 1: I consider like September through January, you know, those are
4:03
Speaker 1: my those are my months to pretty much work from
4:05
Speaker 1: a sun off to sundown. So it's it's a huge
4:08
Speaker 1: effort every week, you know, from the time to games
4:10
Speaker 1: and on Sunday, you know, I'm writing to takeaways calumn
4:14
Speaker 1: and then Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are almost exclusively spent pretty
4:18
Speaker 1: much getting these columns ready for the weekend. So it's
4:21
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's I've been putting out a ton
4:23
Speaker 1: of a f content, but because there's only eight teams, uh,
4:26
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think it's as a rough of
4:28
Speaker 1: a grind as the NFL season at all, And it's
4:30
Speaker 1: it's fun to kind of be learning about these new
4:32
Speaker 1: squads and not having the same level I guess, uh
4:36
Speaker 1: kind of the NFL news grind, which can kind of
4:39
Speaker 1: weigh on you over you know, that long of a season.
4:42
Speaker 1: So it's been a nice relief getting into a f
4:44
Speaker 1: you know, it's still a bunch of work, but hey man,
4:46
Speaker 1: if you're not working harder than what are you doing?
4:48
Speaker 1: So it's all good. I agree, And you sure remind
4:50
Speaker 1: people you played college football, Yes, sir, University of Chicago,
4:54
Speaker 1: and they have a football team for all the haters
4:57
Speaker 1: out there, undefeated all time and gets Notre Dame. How
5:00
Speaker 1: many games have they played against Notre Dame? That's not
5:02
Speaker 1: really important or here, I'm pretty sure to two games
5:08
Speaker 1: back when Jay Brewinger was playing in the nineteen thirties.
5:11
Speaker 1: Hey man, according to Michigan fans, that's the time that
5:14
Speaker 1: really matters or something. So uh So, listen, you guys, uh,
5:18
Speaker 1: you and Sean Corner both who's known as uh the
5:23
Speaker 1: odds maker and whose rankings and UM ratings of fantasy
5:27
Speaker 1: football players are beloved and sort of a driver certainly
5:30
Speaker 1: for us at the Action Network. You guys have been
5:32
Speaker 1: dominating this coverage and certainly you guys talk about it
5:35
Speaker 1: on the Action Network NFL podcast. But I feel like
5:38
Speaker 1: we need to give people a little bit of a primer,
5:40
Speaker 1: like a a F how many games are there going
5:43
Speaker 1: to be? What are some the things that have been
5:45
Speaker 1: most interesting to you when you're watching these games? Yes,
5:50
Speaker 1: so the big thing if you've never watched a snap like,
5:53
Speaker 1: just realize a F is a developmental NFL league. I mean,
5:56
Speaker 1: this isn't the XFL or Canadian in football or arena
6:01
Speaker 1: league where you're seeing you a weird motion and kind
6:03
Speaker 1: of a game that resembles football. I mean, the goal
6:06
Speaker 1: here was to be like kind of little brother to
6:10
Speaker 1: the NFL and provide a stepping stone for players to
6:12
Speaker 1: get more reps and get better and hopefully make it
6:15
Speaker 1: to the NFL. So there's eight teams. It's a ten
6:17
Speaker 1: week regular season you know, begins a week after the
6:20
Speaker 1: Super Bowl end basically right around the NFL draft. Two
6:24
Speaker 1: round playoff formats for twelve weeks total um. It was
6:27
Speaker 1: founded by just you know, former TV producer son of Dick,
6:30
Speaker 1: Charlie eversol as all as well as Hall of Famer
6:33
Speaker 1: Bill poly And so they kind of had the you know,
6:35
Speaker 1: more entertainment as well as the on field football both
6:39
Speaker 1: those sides covered. And yeah, so there are different rules,
6:42
Speaker 1: but again these rules are more meant to embrace the
6:45
Speaker 1: on field NFL product and to really change too much.
6:48
Speaker 1: And there's no kickoffs, so on site kicks are replaced
6:51
Speaker 1: by a fourth and twelve conversion of the offense has
6:54
Speaker 1: to go for. There's no extra points, so teams always
6:57
Speaker 1: have to go for two, you know, to seemingly minor
7:00
Speaker 1: rules somewhat but you just end up getting these kind
7:03
Speaker 1: of extra place throughout the game. You're not being slowed
7:05
Speaker 1: down by special teams as much, which after you watch
7:08
Speaker 1: a couple of games, you do notice much faster increased
7:11
Speaker 1: pace of play. The biggest difference are a kind of
7:14
Speaker 1: blitz restrictions that are put on defenses. They can only
7:16
Speaker 1: rush five guys at a time. Uh, they more or
7:19
Speaker 1: less handcuffed the defenses. I mean you can't do double
7:22
Speaker 1: a gap blitzer or disguise them all out well. The
7:24
Speaker 1: players have to kind of be on the line of scrimmage,
7:26
Speaker 1: which you know, we're talking Jeff Schwartz and some of
7:29
Speaker 1: us before the season started about how these offenses should
7:32
Speaker 1: be able to with the ball up and down the
7:33
Speaker 1: field with these blitz restrictions that are kind of like
7:35
Speaker 1: what you see in the Pro Bowl almost. But as
7:38
Speaker 1: we kind of found out in Week one, might have
7:40
Speaker 1: underestimated just how bad some of these quarterbacks are, especially
7:43
Speaker 1: early in the season. So, uh, we're seeing as many
7:46
Speaker 1: points to start the years. I think maybe the League
7:48
Speaker 1: of hope, but I think overall, you turned the game
7:50
Speaker 1: on and you're gonna be pleasantly surprised with the off
7:53
Speaker 1: field product. All right, So I want to get to
7:56
Speaker 1: a bunch of different betting questions, But first I want
7:58
Speaker 1: to know, like why should I trust you? You know what,
8:02
Speaker 1: I mean, You're you're analyzing this stuff. Nobody else is,
8:07
Speaker 1: but like, how are you doing it? What makes me blue? What?
8:10
Speaker 1: What should make me trusting what you're saying? I mean,
8:14
Speaker 1: I think, uh, what Kanye said it best if you
8:16
Speaker 1: can do it better than me, than you do it.
8:17
Speaker 1: But uh no, I's know, I really am pouring pretty much,
8:22
Speaker 1: uh my heart and soul into trying to do this
8:24
Speaker 1: as well as possible. And to me, when you're approaching
8:27
Speaker 1: a league like this or we don't have much information available,
8:30
Speaker 1: I mean, really, all we can do is try to
8:33
Speaker 1: um take in all the information that is available. I mean,
8:36
Speaker 1: I see a lot of people kind of scoffing at
8:38
Speaker 1: the idea of betting on a f because you know,
8:40
Speaker 1: there's so much we don't know. But I mean the
8:42
Speaker 1: oddsmakers there's a lot they don't know too, because this
8:45
Speaker 1: is such an unknown for everyone. So you know, I
8:47
Speaker 1: think there is a little bit of an edge they're
8:49
Speaker 1: and just embracing that in certainty and realizing that we
8:52
Speaker 1: don't know at all. But you know, all I can
8:54
Speaker 1: do in the meantime, they just trying to know it
8:56
Speaker 1: all as fast as possible. So for me that you know,
9:00
Speaker 1: pretty much watching most of these games on Saturday or Sunday.
9:03
Speaker 1: You know, I'd like to say, I'm I have a
9:05
Speaker 1: bit more of a social life in that, but I
9:07
Speaker 1: have watched an alarming amount of these games live so far,
9:10
Speaker 1: and then uh afterwards, you know, making sure to go
9:12
Speaker 1: back through and finding these games again on YouTube or
9:15
Speaker 1: some other channel and rewatching them because I have found that,
9:19
Speaker 1: because of the lack of a news information available, the
9:22
Speaker 1: broadcasts are very helpful with the coaches will kind of
9:26
Speaker 1: analyze their packages and why this player played over this player,
9:29
Speaker 1: and different information like that which you can only really
9:31
Speaker 1: hear from listening to broadcast. So uh, just watching the
9:35
Speaker 1: film listening to broadcast. And then now that we're a
9:37
Speaker 1: couple of weeks in, we've had websites like Pro Football
9:39
Speaker 1: Focus and No Extra Points dot com beginning to provide information,
9:43
Speaker 1: so I'm able to do you know, more of the
9:45
Speaker 1: uh typical NFL type analysis that you know I've I've
9:49
Speaker 1: gotten good at over the last few years. So you know,
9:51
Speaker 1: I say, if you want to take a chance on me.
9:54
Speaker 1: Just go ahead read my scouting report. You know, I
9:56
Speaker 1: think you'll see. Uh. You know, I put a ton
9:59
Speaker 1: of time into this, and yeah, you know, it's trying
10:01
Speaker 1: to really uncover every stone because the big thing is
10:04
Speaker 1: I'm not having an ego with any of this. I've again,
10:07
Speaker 1: I was very wrong early on the season about thinking
10:10
Speaker 1: that the overs will be hitting because of these rules.
10:12
Speaker 1: I mean, we got to have a kind of short
10:14
Speaker 1: mindset and this be willing to adjust on the fly
10:16
Speaker 1: because it's a new league and we don't know that much.
10:18
Speaker 1: So just trying to keep getting better week by week,
10:21
Speaker 1: and I think the best way to do that is
10:22
Speaker 1: just immerse yourself in it. Alright, So have you been
10:25
Speaker 1: betting on the A A S. I have been, and
10:29
Speaker 1: how's it going? Not too bad? A Week one was
10:33
Speaker 1: our whole strategy was pretty much fate Christian Hackenberg, which
10:36
Speaker 1: worked out brilliantly. Uh. Didn't know much of else about
10:38
Speaker 1: the rosters there. Uh yeah, Like I said, I think
10:41
Speaker 1: the overs in week one but one and three, So
10:43
Speaker 1: that didn't go that great. But last week we're able
10:46
Speaker 1: to adjust. In our ultimate betting guy, we're able to
10:48
Speaker 1: go four and two. Uh, pretty much counted the underdogs
10:51
Speaker 1: two and two there. But by knowing kind of how
10:54
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks and offenses are a little bit, I was
10:56
Speaker 1: able to get on the who was at Orlando San
10:59
Speaker 1: Antonio because those are two of the pretty much only
11:01
Speaker 1: decent offenses as well as the Atlanta San Diego under
11:05
Speaker 1: after seeing how bad those guys are. So we're getting there, Chad,
11:09
Speaker 1: let's talk about Christian Hackenbroke for a second. I almost
11:13
Speaker 1: feel bad for the guy, do you know what I mean? Like,
11:19
Speaker 1: here was a guy who you know, many many years ago,
11:22
Speaker 1: took a huge chance, he was the number one rated
11:25
Speaker 1: player coming out of high school, took this huge chance,
11:29
Speaker 1: decided to stay at Penn State even after all of
11:32
Speaker 1: the Joe Pap drama, and probably had a chance to
11:36
Speaker 1: walk away from his scholarship at Penn State. He decides
11:39
Speaker 1: to stay. He does okay, and at one point I
11:43
Speaker 1: feel like maybe coming out of his junior year, if
11:47
Speaker 1: he had gone out after his junior year, he might
11:49
Speaker 1: have been her first round pick. Stays for a senior year,
11:53
Speaker 1: doesn't do that well, falls down in the draft, goes
11:57
Speaker 1: to the Jets. It's kind of a joke there. This
12:01
Speaker 1: is a cautionary tale all along the way. What do
12:05
Speaker 1: you think of that? Yeah, he said it may not
12:09
Speaker 1: once at Hackenburg ever really been set up for success
12:11
Speaker 1: since he's left high school. I mean he has. He
12:13
Speaker 1: goes to Penn State, starts as a freshman, and things
12:16
Speaker 1: go so well with Bill O'Brien that you know, O'Brien
12:19
Speaker 1: leaves and takes the Texans job. So there goes you know,
12:21
Speaker 1: pretty much the only good college head coach Hackenburg had,
12:24
Speaker 1: and then he had to deal with those depleted Penn
12:27
Speaker 1: State rosters for the next two years. You know, before
12:29
Speaker 1: they were kind of able to kind of research under
12:32
Speaker 1: James Franklin and become that, you know, much more confident
12:34
Speaker 1: team that we've seen the last few years. And now,
12:37
Speaker 1: like I said, he goes the Jets, doesn't really have
12:39
Speaker 1: a chance to succeed there. Now he's in the a F.
12:42
Speaker 1: His head coach is Mike Singletary, you know, longtime defensive mind,
12:45
Speaker 1: old school football coach, and their offensive coordinator was supposed
12:48
Speaker 1: to be how hum who's more of a progressive air
12:50
Speaker 1: raid of minded coach, but he unfortunately left the team
12:54
Speaker 1: about too monch supporting season started. So, man, if you
12:57
Speaker 1: watch about a quarter of this uh not this offense
13:01
Speaker 1: with Hackenburg. I wouldn't be shocked if Singletary has an
13:04
Speaker 1: alarming amount of slight and what exactly they're trying to
13:07
Speaker 1: do on offense, because it really just isn't a situation
13:10
Speaker 1: that I think many quarterbacks would be able to succeed in. Unfortunately,
13:14
Speaker 1: it's looking like it's kind of bringing out the worst
13:16
Speaker 1: in Hackenburg in this last game, because the guy just
13:19
Speaker 1: hardly has any time to throw. When he does, he's
13:22
Speaker 1: pretty rushed. So, I mean, it seems like his strategy
13:24
Speaker 1: last week was if his first reason there take off
13:27
Speaker 1: scramble and then not sliding. I mean, oh my god, Christian,
13:31
Speaker 1: he was getting absolutely pulverized last week. I felt bad
13:34
Speaker 1: for the guy. Even when he manages to score a touchdown,
13:37
Speaker 1: he's laid out into the end zone afterwards. So, man,
13:40
Speaker 1: if anyone needs a break in this world, it's Christian Hackenburg.
13:42
Speaker 1: Well what was it? What was the number of this weekend?
13:44
Speaker 1: It was sixteen and a half? Is that this weekend
13:46
Speaker 1: of the weekend before as uh sixteen last week and
13:50
Speaker 1: week two well we barely know anything about and it
13:54
Speaker 1: was sixteen and halve and he didn't cover did he
13:56
Speaker 1: he did cover? Yeah, they actually, Uh it was funny
13:59
Speaker 1: that this was up on Arizona, who was widely considered
14:03
Speaker 1: the best team in the league. Twelve nothing at halftime,
14:06
Speaker 1: so you think, you know, you're winning by two scores
14:09
Speaker 1: against the best team in the league. Your quarterback must
14:11
Speaker 1: be playing pretty well. But it was so bad that,
14:14
Speaker 1: like Brandon Sobers was, even their backup was even warming
14:17
Speaker 1: up in the third quarter of that game because Hackenburg
14:19
Speaker 1: still just couldn't really get anything going. So they did
14:22
Speaker 1: end up covering. Arizona came back in a oneen anyway,
14:26
Speaker 1: but sixteen points was still just a ridiculous sight to see. Alright, So,
14:31
Speaker 1: Christian Hackenburg, you know that's too bad. He's probably not
14:35
Speaker 1: going to get back to the NFL. How are you
14:38
Speaker 1: making decisions about betting in this sport? How are you
14:41
Speaker 1: power rating teams right now? So the big thing for
14:45
Speaker 1: me when it started was just trying to identify who
14:48
Speaker 1: the good quarterbacks are in, what offenses are potentially running
14:52
Speaker 1: some new loook schemes. I mean, I won't pretend to
14:54
Speaker 1: be like the biggest offensive wizard in the world, but
14:57
Speaker 1: we did have a bunch of coaches here like Mike
15:00
Speaker 1: Arts and some of these guys who literally had not
15:02
Speaker 1: coached in ten years. So that's not always a bad
15:04
Speaker 1: thing for coaches. You know, sometimes you see them go
15:07
Speaker 1: out even if they're broadcasting and stuff. You know, they're
15:09
Speaker 1: still kind of learning new offenses, learning new things, going
15:11
Speaker 1: around the country doing all that. But we find out
15:14
Speaker 1: that there are other coaches like Mike Martz who more
15:17
Speaker 1: or less don't do anything for ten years and then
15:19
Speaker 1: trying to run the same offense that worked really well
15:21
Speaker 1: in So trying to identify that before the year was
15:24
Speaker 1: kind of what led me on to Birmingham for example. Uh,
15:28
Speaker 1: they had the worst odds in the entire league to
15:29
Speaker 1: start the year, but the quarterback Luis Perez actually won
15:33
Speaker 1: the D two Heisman and seventeen was able to get
15:37
Speaker 1: a couple of coffee with the Rams and Sean McVeigh
15:38
Speaker 1: in the preseason eighteen. So you know, if Sean mcvays
15:42
Speaker 1: thinks highly of you, that's usually get enough to get
15:44
Speaker 1: a head coaching job in the NFL. So it's not
15:46
Speaker 1: bad if you're a quarterback as well, I figure, and
15:48
Speaker 1: uh yeah, so kind of knowing that Birmingham had at
15:52
Speaker 1: least a halfway cough in the quarterback under center. You know,
15:54
Speaker 1: they've been lucky enough to start too. And Oh, I
15:56
Speaker 1: was able to kind of get on that future before
15:58
Speaker 1: and I think what we've really seen now after two
16:01
Speaker 1: weeks is a separation and that quarterback play throughout the league.
16:04
Speaker 1: You're seeing Arizona, Orlando, Birmingham, and San Antonio are kind
16:09
Speaker 1: of top four teams with their quarterback play. Salt Lake
16:12
Speaker 1: the starter Josh Woodroum hurt his hamstring in the first
16:16
Speaker 1: half of the first game, so they're still a little
16:18
Speaker 1: bit up in the air. But San Diego, Atlanta and
16:20
Speaker 1: Memphis are bad and we've seen that really play out.
16:23
Speaker 1: And because I mean any level of football, if you
16:25
Speaker 1: don't have a good quarterback, you're gonna struggle to consistently
16:28
Speaker 1: move the ball. So yeah, maybe you can overcome that
16:31
Speaker 1: with a good defenses and different things in that nature,
16:33
Speaker 1: but it was really impossible for us to know that
16:35
Speaker 1: going to season. So the biggest thing for me, it's
16:37
Speaker 1: just been evaluating these kbs. Alright, So, uh, I believe
16:41
Speaker 1: you said in your story today, Garrett Gilbert maybe the
16:44
Speaker 1: best quarterback in the a F Garrett Gilbert does the
16:49
Speaker 1: NFL like just miss this guy, or is he good
16:53
Speaker 1: for the A A F but a third stringer or
16:56
Speaker 1: non roster player in the NFL. Give me an assessment here. Yeah, So,
17:01
Speaker 1: I think it's important to keep in mind, like when
17:02
Speaker 1: we're talking about a guy being great in the AF,
17:05
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that they're gonna go to the NFL
17:07
Speaker 1: and have the same level of success. I think it
17:09
Speaker 1: honestly just shows how high level the NFL really is
17:14
Speaker 1: for these players to, you know, attempt to go to
17:16
Speaker 1: the NFL, and I understand a lot of them maybe
17:19
Speaker 1: didn't have the opportunity needed to succeed or there maybe
17:21
Speaker 1: there are some various factors that didn't allow them to flourish.
17:25
Speaker 1: But either way, I mean, we've seen more than enough
17:28
Speaker 1: examples of the a F of just talented players that
17:31
Speaker 1: weren't able to crack in the NFL to know that
17:33
Speaker 1: there's still plenty of high level football being played out here.
17:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, Garrett Gilbert, you know, I wasn't really able
17:39
Speaker 1: to do anything, uh professionally when the few snaps he
17:43
Speaker 1: was able to get. And now all of a sudden
17:44
Speaker 1: you're thrown with Steve Spurrier and he looks like a
17:46
Speaker 1: freaking god. But it's just uh yeah, I keep in mind,
17:50
Speaker 1: especially I think in this Orlando offense that uh, it
17:53
Speaker 1: is different than anything we're kind of seeing in the NFL.
17:56
Speaker 1: Because the crazy thing with Gilbert of his past is
17:59
Speaker 1: how have been at least twenty yards or downfield so
18:02
Speaker 1: far this season. I mean, they are not afraid to
18:03
Speaker 1: chuck that ball. And I mean, for comparison, no NFL
18:07
Speaker 1: quarterback has even surpassed on his deep ball rate. So
18:12
Speaker 1: it's definitely different styles being played a little bit, which
18:14
Speaker 1: I think is helping increase numbers for someone like Gilbert,
18:18
Speaker 1: but it's also just some good football being played. You know,
18:21
Speaker 1: guys like Rashad Ross, Charles Johnson, these wide receivers that
18:24
Speaker 1: are balling out as well. Yeah, maybe they're not going
18:26
Speaker 1: to go to the NFL and you know, immediately become
18:28
Speaker 1: a thousand yard guy. But I think just given these
18:31
Speaker 1: players extra foam opportunities, extra chances show hey, you know,
18:35
Speaker 1: if you do give me ten targets per game, I'm
18:37
Speaker 1: capable of coming down with five or six of them.
18:39
Speaker 1: Having those chances, I think it's just really huge for
18:41
Speaker 1: every position. I love that Steve Spurrier is coaching and
18:44
Speaker 1: that he's got the best passing stats in the league,
18:48
Speaker 1: and I feel like, I feel like if I feel
18:50
Speaker 1: like betting should be allowed by the players on this
18:53
Speaker 1: and they should be able to bet on their own
18:56
Speaker 1: that that would take the league to the next level.
18:58
Speaker 1: And they've got this app, and the app is playing
19:00
Speaker 1: and like, you know, you can pick the next play
19:02
Speaker 1: that's going on. And all weekend I was playing with it,
19:04
Speaker 1: and I kept picking plays and I went with the opposite.
19:07
Speaker 1: I ended up being on the opposite side of the
19:10
Speaker 1: crowd and nearly everyone because I'm a contraining but I
19:13
Speaker 1: feel like this league is Taylor made for, like, you know,
19:19
Speaker 1: players to bet on themselves. In the player prop category,
19:23
Speaker 1: I agree. I mean, especially if they're betting on themselves.
19:25
Speaker 1: I mean I don't really see the downside in it,
19:27
Speaker 1: because everyone's just worried about, you know, someone throwing a game,
19:30
Speaker 1: which obviously no one wants, but yeah, I think people
19:33
Speaker 1: would love that, and they're already kind of interviewing these
19:35
Speaker 1: uh you know, I see a player interview to kind
19:37
Speaker 1: of end the first and the third quarter, and I mean, yeah,
19:40
Speaker 1: imagine if uh, you know, Louis Perez walked out there
19:43
Speaker 1: and goes, yeah, I saw my player prop for yards
19:46
Speaker 1: is only two hundred and five. Like that's an insult.
19:48
Speaker 1: I'm easily I'm easily covering that. I mean, just adds
19:51
Speaker 1: a whole another storyline to it. That's a fun thing
19:53
Speaker 1: to uh get excited about. So yeah, I'm with you chat,
19:56
Speaker 1: especially while this league remains you know a little bit
19:59
Speaker 1: of niche kind of betting and fantasy sport. Just doing
20:03
Speaker 1: everything they can to embrace that would really be great.
20:06
Speaker 1: Did you watch any Louise Perez games in college? I
20:10
Speaker 1: did not, but I did grind some filmal film in
20:13
Speaker 1: the preseason NFL preseason in particular, as I was trying
20:17
Speaker 1: to get a better read on these teams. You grinded
20:23
Speaker 1: some film on Louise Perez. Yeah, it's so uh it's Perez.
20:28
Speaker 1: But here's the crazy thing to like, these quarterback situations
20:31
Speaker 1: haven't even been locked in stone. I mean, I thought
20:33
Speaker 1: I was getting a good read on everyone, but we
20:36
Speaker 1: find out, like Arizona, who has been the consensus best
20:38
Speaker 1: team all year, they were supposed to be gone with
20:40
Speaker 1: Trevor Knight, who was at Oklahoma and later Texas A
20:45
Speaker 1: and EMM in college, Like he was their starting quarterback
20:47
Speaker 1: up until about the Thursday before game time, they turned
20:50
Speaker 1: around and go with John Woolford, who that looks like
20:52
Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the league on Sunday. So it's
20:55
Speaker 1: uh one of these things where, yeah, maybe the quarterback,
20:58
Speaker 1: you know, it's gonna be a certain part of how
21:01
Speaker 1: good this offense is. But it's also once you see
21:04
Speaker 1: kind of the system they're in, the scheme they're running,
21:06
Speaker 1: that's really when you can set the ceiling. Is it
21:08
Speaker 1: all that different? Like, are you seeing things that are
21:10
Speaker 1: innovative in the A A F that the NFL doesn't do? Uh,
21:15
Speaker 1: not so much from the off field product, yet I
21:18
Speaker 1: think the NFL is ahead of it. It's it's kind
21:21
Speaker 1: of difficult for the defense is in particular to be
21:24
Speaker 1: all that innovative because of those kind of aforementioned blitching
21:27
Speaker 1: rules that handcuffed from a bit. But the only real
21:30
Speaker 1: offense I've seen that looks like a modern kind of
21:34
Speaker 1: almost college style team is Arizona. I mean they've they've
21:37
Speaker 1: run the second most play action in the league and
21:38
Speaker 1: they're getting the ball out. Walford is gonna ball all
21:41
Speaker 1: the hands that quicker than anyone, A whole bunch of
21:43
Speaker 1: up tempo, stemp up tempo stuff there, but I think
21:47
Speaker 1: he'll still be surprised like some of the cave memball
21:49
Speaker 1: that's going on with these teams, like Memphis Week one
21:53
Speaker 1: with Hackenburg that they're down a couple of scores at halftime,
21:57
Speaker 1: and like, I kid you not, their second half of
21:59
Speaker 1: game plan change was to run more wildcat. So I
22:02
Speaker 1: think some of these teams are still uh, still still
22:05
Speaker 1: playing a little bit behind the eight ball there. Uh.
22:08
Speaker 1: Do you think this is better than college football or
22:11
Speaker 1: is it the same as college football? I think college
22:14
Speaker 1: football is better because people still have the tradition to
22:17
Speaker 1: latch onto and more of a comfort zone with it.
22:20
Speaker 1: I think the on field product has a chance to
22:23
Speaker 1: be pretty similar, though I don't think it's there yet.
22:26
Speaker 1: But like we saw last week and that or landover
22:29
Speaker 1: Santonio game matchup between pretty much two of the only
22:33
Speaker 1: four decent qbs in the league. It was really the
22:36
Speaker 1: most entertaining one. Yeah, kind of like a poor man
22:38
Speaker 1: version of Rams Chiefs where yes, there was really good
22:41
Speaker 1: offense kind of going back and forth, but we saw
22:43
Speaker 1: some defensive scores. I mean, it wasn't like a Big
22:46
Speaker 1: twelve game. I mean there was a good defense and
22:48
Speaker 1: offense kind of being played on both sides of the ball.
22:50
Speaker 1: So there are situations like that, but I mean, come on, like,
22:54
Speaker 1: you can also look at San Diego versus Atlanta, where
22:57
Speaker 1: we got you know, Philip Nelson chucking the ball over
23:00
Speaker 1: his head like he's a madman. Where it's like, all right, guys,
23:02
Speaker 1: like this is really the best level of football we
23:04
Speaker 1: can display here. So I think, uh, you know, I
23:08
Speaker 1: think it's mean, isn't going to be as good as
23:10
Speaker 1: called football, but I think the better games of the
23:13
Speaker 1: a F are certainly at that level. All right. So
23:15
Speaker 1: this past weekend, uh, there were four games, and all
23:19
Speaker 1: four games had relatively bad beats. And like we came
23:26
Speaker 1: into the office this morning, Scott Miller, our executive editor,
23:31
Speaker 1: came in this morning. He's like, I bet on all
23:33
Speaker 1: four games. Got got beaten all four games in ways
23:38
Speaker 1: that if that was an NFL game, we would have
23:41
Speaker 1: written four massive stories about how bad those beats were.
23:45
Speaker 1: So explain to me, Explained to me, how you're gonna
23:49
Speaker 1: feel good if you're in that situation betting on a
23:52
Speaker 1: sport that's two weeks old and which the only person
23:54
Speaker 1: who's telling us anything is you. Ian Hartet's. Yeah, it's
24:00
Speaker 1: I've seen a couple more guys come out of the
24:02
Speaker 1: woolworks sit in the last few weeks, so we're starting
24:04
Speaker 1: to get some more competition in the field, which you know,
24:07
Speaker 1: I was just gonna help bring out the best and
24:08
Speaker 1: all all of us. But yeah, some pretty bad beats
24:12
Speaker 1: going on last week. But I don't know, man like,
24:14
Speaker 1: it isn't a bad beat, just a good beat for
24:16
Speaker 1: the other, for the other better on the other side.
24:18
Speaker 1: So I feel for Scott and I wish they'd worked
24:22
Speaker 1: out a little better for him, But I don't know.
24:24
Speaker 1: I still felt like we had a pretty decent grasp
24:27
Speaker 1: on the league going into last week. Maybe as a whole.
24:30
Speaker 1: I mean there's some um, you know, there's definitely some
24:34
Speaker 1: variance to pop up, but I mean we looked at
24:36
Speaker 1: sixteen point Memphis spread and kind of do that was
24:38
Speaker 1: too high. I was able to come to fruition and
24:41
Speaker 1: then uh, you know, Birmingham, uh was favored by a
24:44
Speaker 1: little too much over Salt Lake. They weren't quite able
24:46
Speaker 1: to cover that. So I think these games that have
24:49
Speaker 1: two really bad quarterbacks, like you like your Atlanta San
24:53
Speaker 1: Diego game, you got to recognize that and kind of
24:55
Speaker 1: think that there's gonna be some more variance there, you know,
24:57
Speaker 1: hied higher chance returnovers and then of that nature. But
25:01
Speaker 1: I think you know, the key to this is is folks,
25:04
Speaker 1: maybe don't bet on every game like you, like some
25:06
Speaker 1: of your dgens might for the NFL slate and just
25:09
Speaker 1: focus on the two or three you think you can
25:11
Speaker 1: actually get an edge. And because look, I mean, yeah,
25:14
Speaker 1: guys like me, you know, guys, you know these other
25:15
Speaker 1: fantasy analysts, we don't know as much about this as
25:18
Speaker 1: we do about the NFL. But the same thing could
25:20
Speaker 1: be said about the oddsmakers. I mean, it's a new
25:22
Speaker 1: league for everyone, so I think really trying to immerse
25:25
Speaker 1: ourselves early as possible or just give us the best
25:27
Speaker 1: chance to be successful. All Right, So you just said
25:29
Speaker 1: something really interesting, which was obviously you want to pay
25:33
Speaker 1: attention to quarterbacks, Like if if I am a better
25:36
Speaker 1: Jones in first some action on football and I'm thinking
25:40
Speaker 1: about betting on the A A F how am I
25:43
Speaker 1: finding my edge quarterbacks? You just mentioned the variants and quarterbacks.
25:49
Speaker 1: Obviously you can read your stuff. You can go to PFF,
25:51
Speaker 1: you can sort of do a lot of different things.
25:53
Speaker 1: You try to figure out what the research is, But
25:55
Speaker 1: what are the keys that you're looking for when you're
25:57
Speaker 1: power rating these games. Yeah, so the big thing before
26:01
Speaker 1: the season, like I said, it was just play callers, quarterbacks.
26:05
Speaker 1: Now we actually have a little more stuff going on
26:08
Speaker 1: with us. I'm able to do, you know, more of
26:09
Speaker 1: the typical NFL style statistical annoulynsis during the week with
26:14
Speaker 1: some of that data we mentioned, but uh, really, you know,
26:17
Speaker 1: once kind of we're at the Tuesday Wednesday part of
26:19
Speaker 1: the week, that's when I want to kind of start
26:21
Speaker 1: looking at these matchups more to see who's gonna get exploited,
26:24
Speaker 1: because right now we're seeing a huge disparity between these offenses.
26:29
Speaker 1: I mean, Orlando is averaging seven point six yards per
26:32
Speaker 1: play way to go Spurrier. Meanwhile, we have three teams
26:36
Speaker 1: averaging three point nine yards for players fewer. I mean
26:40
Speaker 1: that's literally literally almost Uh you know, you're having half
26:45
Speaker 1: of one of Orlando play is going to get you
26:47
Speaker 1: two of Salt Lakes plays. I mean, it's ridiculous how
26:50
Speaker 1: much more efficient some of these offenses are. So just
26:53
Speaker 1: recognizing that and then trying to get a good read
26:56
Speaker 1: on these defenses, I thin because the season goes on
26:58
Speaker 1: will be useful as well. Right now, I don't see
27:00
Speaker 1: a thing. I mean, maybe Atlanta. I think it's only
27:03
Speaker 1: defense I would point to that looks like a kind
27:05
Speaker 1: of major liability, but also in defenses that at least
27:08
Speaker 1: look pretty okay for the most part. So keeping an
27:11
Speaker 1: eye on who they're being tested by, like, for example, Birmingham.
27:15
Speaker 1: You know, they looked really good, but they've played in
27:17
Speaker 1: Memphis and uh San Diego so far this week with
27:20
Speaker 1: the guy Atlanta, so really haven't been tested yet. Trying
27:22
Speaker 1: to keep that in mind. And then I think the
27:24
Speaker 1: last thing is just, uh, you know, we don't have
27:27
Speaker 1: a great schefter guy in the a F that's gonna
27:29
Speaker 1: give you all the news. You know, injury reports are
27:32
Speaker 1: pretty tough to come by, so really just doing everything
27:35
Speaker 1: you can to dig through those, you know, go through
27:37
Speaker 1: the a F beat writers. I mean it can be
27:39
Speaker 1: a tedious task sometimes, but you know, then we find
27:41
Speaker 1: out in a situation like with salt Lake last week
27:45
Speaker 1: that while Josh Woodman was a game time decision and
27:48
Speaker 1: questionable all week, if you kind of pay attention more
27:50
Speaker 1: the beat writers and some of the articles, you would
27:52
Speaker 1: know that he was more doubtful side of things. So again,
27:55
Speaker 1: just you know, really trying to cover, really trying to
27:58
Speaker 1: uncover every last own and piece of information is I
28:01
Speaker 1: think just the best way to go about it. Well,
28:03
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, this is also about
28:06
Speaker 1: another way to take advantage of a market in which
28:09
Speaker 1: you can make some money. Absolutely. Yeah, I was gonna say,
28:16
Speaker 1: like the one thing we haven't we you know, talking
28:18
Speaker 1: about kind of the gambling ways and going it, but
28:20
Speaker 1: there's a big fantasy market kind of growing on it too.
28:23
Speaker 1: We've been lucky enough to get some daily fantasy contests
28:26
Speaker 1: with the fine folks at fan Ball, and I think
28:28
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a big boost to this league. League
28:32
Speaker 1: staying power in general is just trying to get more
28:34
Speaker 1: people involved in the fantasy side of things, because I mean,
28:38
Speaker 1: you know, people, I don't even love football per se,
28:41
Speaker 1: I love playing fantasy football, and that's kind of an
28:43
Speaker 1: opportunity we're getting here. So it was pretty tough for
28:47
Speaker 1: anyone to get a season long league going, and even
28:50
Speaker 1: if you were able to get it going, I'm sure
28:52
Speaker 1: there's been enough kind of fluky draft picks already kind
28:55
Speaker 1: of sway the tide in those leagues. So I do
28:58
Speaker 1: think the kind of nature this league, you know, as
29:02
Speaker 1: we know more each week and weekend and week out,
29:05
Speaker 1: it does set itself up really kindly to the daily
29:07
Speaker 1: fantasy format where you can kind of take more of
29:09
Speaker 1: a week by week approach. Alright, so Ian, we're gonna
29:13
Speaker 1: we got Eli Herskovic, our our college basketball analyst, is
29:17
Speaker 1: going to come up later in the show. But before
29:19
Speaker 1: you go, I need you to give me your picks
29:24
Speaker 1: for this weekend's a A F games. That's what we've
29:27
Speaker 1: been leading to this whole time. This is what we've
29:30
Speaker 1: been waiting for. You are all things a A F
29:34
Speaker 1: media rolled into one. Give me your picks. I wish
29:39
Speaker 1: we had the lives available, but I am not seeing
29:41
Speaker 1: them just yet. But so interestingly enough, two of these
29:45
Speaker 1: games already feature rematches and between teams I've faced in
29:50
Speaker 1: week one, uh so San Diego and San San Antonio,
29:55
Speaker 1: as well as um Or Salt Lake Frost Arizona games.
30:00
Speaker 1: They're already faced her in week one. And you know,
30:02
Speaker 1: one piece of research that Jonathan Bales, um my boss,
30:06
Speaker 1: has done in the passes, He's looked at NFL quarterbacks
30:09
Speaker 1: and their second kind of divisional game of the season,
30:12
Speaker 1: and the offense has always performed worse. I think this
30:14
Speaker 1: makes sense. You know, defenses get a second look at
30:17
Speaker 1: a team and they're gonna have a chance to make
30:19
Speaker 1: adjustments and be better, especially considering that these offenses they've
30:23
Speaker 1: only had two weeks to improve during the span. I
30:26
Speaker 1: love the unders in these games, even though I don't
30:29
Speaker 1: know what they are yet in San Diego, sant A Tonio,
30:32
Speaker 1: as well as UM Salt Lake in Arizona not Lee's
30:36
Speaker 1: Uh you know, I'll get my straight up text these
30:39
Speaker 1: games too. Uh Arizona. I think it's the best team
30:42
Speaker 1: in the league. They're gonna take down Salt Lake if
30:45
Speaker 1: John Josh Woodrum is still out. Keep an eye on
30:47
Speaker 1: that though, because Woodroum coming back is going to help
30:49
Speaker 1: that Salt Lake team. I don't think they're as bad
30:52
Speaker 1: as their own two records said they are well Landover's
30:55
Speaker 1: Memphis hard to harden, not Rivos Burger and Company at home.
30:59
Speaker 1: But I do think we could see another lofty line
31:01
Speaker 1: in that sixteen point range potentially, so might be no
31:04
Speaker 1: situation to take a dog that's not too happy about uh.
31:07
Speaker 1: Birmingham versus Atlanta. I do like Birmingham Louis Perez talked
31:11
Speaker 1: him up a ton in Atlanta is just so bad
31:14
Speaker 1: with Matt Simms or bunch their coach. I've left in
31:16
Speaker 1: the last month, so I got Birmingham and they're finally
31:19
Speaker 1: San Diego ver san Antonio, and I like San Antonio.
31:22
Speaker 1: Here is another situation though, where I can see that
31:25
Speaker 1: line being a little high, So Mike could go out
31:27
Speaker 1: of the underdog, which was something we did last week
31:29
Speaker 1: to a little bit of success. So even though it
31:31
Speaker 1: might not feel good, people, if you don't know a
31:33
Speaker 1: ton about it as much as you do about another sport,
31:36
Speaker 1: just you know, embraced uncertainty and must hopefully make some money.
31:39
Speaker 1: Embrace the uncertainty. It's just a good way for all
31:42
Speaker 1: of us to live our lives. Ian Heart, it's from
31:45
Speaker 1: the Action Network. Dude, you are killing it. This stuff
31:49
Speaker 1: is so so good. Uh, if you don't know anything
31:53
Speaker 1: about the a F but if you just like to
31:55
Speaker 1: read someone who is fully immersed in analyzing football, you
32:00
Speaker 1: gotta go ready and heartsits and uh fill his heart
32:03
Speaker 1: with joy because he is putting a lot of effort
32:06
Speaker 1: into these things. Ian, nice work, buddy, Thanks for coming
32:09
Speaker 1: on the podcast. Thanks a Buch for having me. Chad,
32:11
Speaker 1: have a good one, all right, brother, alright. Coming up
32:14
Speaker 1: next on the podcast, Eli Herskovich is going to talk
32:17
Speaker 1: about college basketball. He's been following it all season long
32:20
Speaker 1: on the Action Network and we had to change the
32:22
Speaker 1: Top the Top twenty five this week. We're gonna break
32:25
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Speaker 1: to Eli Herskovich in some college basketball, all right, as
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34:28
Speaker 1: talking a a f today as we did with Ian Hartitt's,
34:32
Speaker 1: we're talking a little college troops with Action Network college
34:36
Speaker 1: hoops basketball writer Eli Herskovich in Chicago, my hometown, Eli,
34:46
Speaker 1: what's happening? Not much chat? Thanks for me and I
34:49
Speaker 1: appreciate it so A. I love hearing your voice as
34:54
Speaker 1: a fellow Chicagoan because it makes me feel like I'm
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Speaker 1: at home. B. I love the you went to DePaul,
35:02
Speaker 1: which you know, when I was growing up in Chicago
35:04
Speaker 1: in the eighties was like the transcendent basketball program that
35:09
Speaker 1: I lived for and watched every single night during the
35:12
Speaker 1: season on w G n UH and see You're gonna
35:18
Speaker 1: catch us up man, because now all the attention is
35:21
Speaker 1: going into college basketball. We're out of the All Star break.
35:24
Speaker 1: U k uh and UT played this weekend. My Ama
35:28
Speaker 1: Mater Indiana plays Perdue Uh tonight, huge huge Duke U
35:34
Speaker 1: n C game tomorrow. Here are my questions for you.
35:38
Speaker 1: Are you ready? Let's do it? Number one Tennessee. Were
35:43
Speaker 1: they exposed or can they recover? I think they were
35:47
Speaker 1: exposed a little bit. And this was a team that
35:50
Speaker 1: I was really high on coming into the season. Got
35:52
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35:55
Speaker 1: of considering their twelve to one depending out where you
35:59
Speaker 1: shop around. But defensively, they were eighth in the country
36:02
Speaker 1: and adjusted defensive efficiency last year, and that's opponent's points
36:06
Speaker 1: per a hundred possessions. So you're looking at a team
36:09
Speaker 1: that brought back a ton of upperclassmen. Grant Williams and
36:12
Speaker 1: Admiral Scope Field, two of the top guys in that group.
36:15
Speaker 1: And and and they're now that the second in the
36:18
Speaker 1: country in the fifties high forties in that department. So
36:21
Speaker 1: Kentucky really took it to them on the block. PJ. Washington,
36:25
Speaker 1: who has been out of control good over the last
36:27
Speaker 1: eight games for the Wildcats. It's been a blessing for
36:30
Speaker 1: for John Kelly Priory that he came back to school.
36:33
Speaker 1: Henry Travis were dominant against that front line. Ashton Higgins,
36:37
Speaker 1: who's been a huge who's who's improved a ton over
36:41
Speaker 1: over the conference stretch for the Kentucky Wildcats, was tremendous
36:45
Speaker 1: against Jordan Bone, who's a pretty good defensive point guards.
36:48
Speaker 1: So offensively, Tennessee taken that next step, but defensively, uh
36:53
Speaker 1: Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander, who's a really good defensive center.
36:57
Speaker 1: For the battles, they were exposed. And I think this
36:59
Speaker 1: is a for Tennessee going forward. I'm not saying that
37:02
Speaker 1: they won't beat LSU on the road on Saturday, that
37:05
Speaker 1: that looks like a good matchup on paper, just looking
37:08
Speaker 1: at that one a little bit. But come the tournament,
37:10
Speaker 1: this team has has real defensive issues. So what did
37:15
Speaker 1: we learn about Kentucky then in this matchup? Are they
37:18
Speaker 1: sort of finding peak Kentucky right now? Are they getting
37:21
Speaker 1: into the great great place as the head into the tournament?
37:24
Speaker 1: I think so. And and it starts with one of
37:27
Speaker 1: the guys I brought up, Aston Haggens. If you get
37:30
Speaker 1: good point guard playing the tournament, everyone always talks about
37:33
Speaker 1: good defense and elite point guard play, and it's not
37:36
Speaker 1: just it's not a fallacy. You get you get Aston
37:39
Speaker 1: Hagans are racking up seven assists in one turnover come March.
37:43
Speaker 1: So this is that was a huge step for Kentucky
37:46
Speaker 1: to get a point guard uh In Haggins that it
37:48
Speaker 1: isn't turning the basketball over. And then again with PJ. Washington,
37:52
Speaker 1: who's one of the best bigs in college basketball and
37:55
Speaker 1: is starting to ascend here down the stretch, Ree Travis
37:59
Speaker 1: one of the best front courts in the country. With
38:01
Speaker 1: Washington and Travis, and then Kelton Johnson who could shoot
38:05
Speaker 1: it from deep. The biggest flaw last season for Kentucky
38:08
Speaker 1: was they couldn't shoot the three, and now you have
38:10
Speaker 1: a five star in Johnson that could train it from deep.
38:13
Speaker 1: They're much improved in that department this season. So this
38:16
Speaker 1: is a team that looks like a bomb of four contender.
38:19
Speaker 1: I think they were in the fifteen range. Is the
38:21
Speaker 1: future going back to the preseason, and there wasn't much
38:24
Speaker 1: value in that series. It's not like you're missing out
38:26
Speaker 1: on anything if you didn't grab Kentucky. But in this
38:30
Speaker 1: season they're shooting thirty point three per cent from deep.
38:32
Speaker 1: That's above average, so not you're looking at an elite
38:35
Speaker 1: three point shooting team. But the difference is is they
38:38
Speaker 1: also have experienced Washington has come back as a sophomore,
38:42
Speaker 1: Travis a graduate transfer from Stanford, So you're not just
38:45
Speaker 1: looking at five star freshman's in Johnson and Hagan's that
38:49
Speaker 1: are in a young core around them. This is a
38:51
Speaker 1: very experienced team. That's it's It's not similar to other
38:55
Speaker 1: Calipari teams. So this isn't a season where years pat
38:59
Speaker 1: like in years, passing feels like everything is wide open.
39:02
Speaker 1: Even though I think you look down sort of in
39:05
Speaker 1: the in the numbers for futures. And you guys talked really,
39:09
Speaker 1: really smartly about this on the Action Network Colleges podcast
39:12
Speaker 1: the other day. Um, why wouldn't I just bet on Duke?
39:16
Speaker 1: What are the holes in Duke's opportunity to win the
39:20
Speaker 1: national championship? Yeah, and it starts with their three point shooting.
39:25
Speaker 1: You watched that game against North Carolina State on Saturday,
39:28
Speaker 1: shutter on sixteen per cent, and everyone set going back
39:32
Speaker 1: to the second Virginia win a couple of weeks ago. Well,
39:35
Speaker 1: Duke is turning that on from three, so now it's
39:38
Speaker 1: it's game over. That was more of an anomaly for
39:41
Speaker 1: Duke than than any sort of consistent stretch that's coming
39:44
Speaker 1: from the beyond the perimeter. I know they came back
39:47
Speaker 1: against Louisville from that twenty three point deficit, just an
39:50
Speaker 1: insane comeback, and and Duke could very well make the
39:53
Speaker 1: Final four. I'm not saying this team is going to
39:55
Speaker 1: get bounced in in the round of thirty two and
39:58
Speaker 1: the opening around like some like some coach K teams
40:01
Speaker 1: have going back to ten with Chicago guy and Javari Parker,
40:06
Speaker 1: I know she has you're a big pantis Chicago guy,
40:08
Speaker 1: so Jabari Parker. UH at that Duke team Australian at
40:12
Speaker 1: the tournament. UH, and this team isn't like that. But
40:15
Speaker 1: you look at the rest of of the college basketball
40:18
Speaker 1: right now and in Kentucky has a chance. Gonzaga obviously
40:22
Speaker 1: beat Duke earlier this season, and that was without Tilly,
40:25
Speaker 1: who's likely going to be done for the rest of
40:28
Speaker 1: the season. Might come back to the tournament. But still
40:30
Speaker 1: you've Hotchi Moore and Brandon Clark, and Clark is one
40:33
Speaker 1: of the best two way bigs in college basketball U
40:36
Speaker 1: n C. That will be an interesting game, like you mentioned,
40:39
Speaker 1: coming up on Wednesday night, and they're starting to ascend
40:42
Speaker 1: defensively and they could shoot the three ball. Kobe White
40:45
Speaker 1: is one of the most explosive freshman in college basketball.
40:48
Speaker 1: I know Virginia's lost to Duke already, and I don't
40:51
Speaker 1: necessarily like UH. Slow teams come the tournament and low
40:56
Speaker 1: possession teams. When you look at Virginia, there only averaging
40:59
Speaker 1: under sixty five possessions of game. So that's why they've
41:03
Speaker 1: gotten exposed against Michigan State and Path tournaments. But it's
41:07
Speaker 1: still not a lock that Virginia's kind of go down
41:10
Speaker 1: in the you know, the Sweet six senor before that.
41:12
Speaker 1: This season in the tournament, this is one of Tony
41:15
Speaker 1: Bennett's better offensive team. So Duke's flaws going back to
41:19
Speaker 1: the original point, it's it's three point shooting, and it's
41:22
Speaker 1: it's also defense. Coach kis had to switch to his
41:25
Speaker 1: zone from time to time, and that this isn't a
41:28
Speaker 1: team that, if you go back to the last season,
41:30
Speaker 1: is gonna play primarily zone. That was a terrible defensive
41:34
Speaker 1: team that coach k had to cover up. But this
41:37
Speaker 1: year they went had to go to his own against Louisville,
41:39
Speaker 1: and Louisville didn't know what was coming at him, which
41:42
Speaker 1: which was surprising. Uh and a coach that has experienced
41:45
Speaker 1: that at Xavier, uh ton so uh defensively that they
41:50
Speaker 1: can get exposed. And if if you're facing a team
41:52
Speaker 1: that knows how to play a zone in the tournament
41:54
Speaker 1: and Duke decided to switch to that and throw you
41:57
Speaker 1: off if not necessarily gonna work March all right, So
42:01
Speaker 1: you guys talked about this on the Action Network Colleges
42:04
Speaker 1: podcast too, And I want to give people who might
42:07
Speaker 1: not have heard that a chance to do what I did,
42:10
Speaker 1: which is, as soon as I was done listening to
42:12
Speaker 1: that podcast, I went and bet uh Marquette, I bet
42:17
Speaker 1: Kansas State, and I bet Washington all at more than
42:22
Speaker 1: a hundred to one to win the college basketball title.
42:27
Speaker 1: I almost bet Houston. I think they had dropped considerably
42:31
Speaker 1: between maybe when you guys recorded the podcast and even
42:34
Speaker 1: when I finally got to listen to it about forty
42:36
Speaker 1: eight hours later. Break down those four teams. For me,
42:39
Speaker 1: that's what made me think, like, is this so wide open?
42:42
Speaker 1: Could you realistically see a Marquette, Kansas State, Washington or
42:47
Speaker 1: Houston moving that far into the tournament and potentially winning it?
42:51
Speaker 1: So let's start off with Marquette. I I am a
42:54
Speaker 1: fan of them. I got them two weeks ago around
42:57
Speaker 1: fifty one, but like you mentioned, if you shop around,
42:59
Speaker 1: you can get him at triple figures on the futures market,
43:02
Speaker 1: and if they lose a couple of games in conference play,
43:05
Speaker 1: you can get by low value with them too. And
43:07
Speaker 1: it's it starts with Marcus Howard, one of the most
43:10
Speaker 1: dynamic UH scores in college basketball. I think he scored
43:13
Speaker 1: around fourty or fifty points three times this season. So
43:16
Speaker 1: you you want that march manness hero Marcus Howard can
43:20
Speaker 1: do it for you. And it's also defensively. This team
43:23
Speaker 1: is is tremendous on the glass, and it hasn't been
43:26
Speaker 1: good defensively overall under Steve Ojaowski since he's got their
43:30
Speaker 1: market up. Until this season, they were around a hundred
43:33
Speaker 1: eighty and adjusted defensive efficiency going back to last season
43:37
Speaker 1: now in the forties or fifties. When you take it
43:39
Speaker 1: on a game by game basis, they could stretch the
43:41
Speaker 1: three ball with the Houser brothers Joey Houser a freshman
43:44
Speaker 1: coming into this year and Sam Houser junior. And again
43:48
Speaker 1: going back to the glass, Theo John and Brandon Morrow,
43:51
Speaker 1: uh two really good defensive bigs down low. John is
43:55
Speaker 1: a tremendous shop blocker, and Morrow and John combines you
43:59
Speaker 1: to be a really good defensive rebounding tandem. And then
44:03
Speaker 1: sacar Adam as well, one of the more underrated players
44:06
Speaker 1: not only in this team but in the country, because
44:09
Speaker 1: what he could do as a shot maker from deep
44:12
Speaker 1: as well as their best on ball defender. And that's
44:15
Speaker 1: what I'm looking for coming come and March can do
44:18
Speaker 1: you have that lockdown guy that could shut down. Uh,
44:21
Speaker 1: the opponent's Marcus Howard a similar player to that, and
44:25
Speaker 1: Sakar Adam has that kind of potential. Uh come March
44:29
Speaker 1: a breakout candidates in that sense. And then you brought
44:32
Speaker 1: up Kansas State, And while the other guys were on them,
44:36
Speaker 1: I'm not the biggest fan of the Wildcats. I know
44:38
Speaker 1: they went in to West Virginia, Dean Wade was a
44:41
Speaker 1: little banged up, and they won that game. And defensively,
44:44
Speaker 1: this is one of the top teams in college basketball.
44:46
Speaker 1: So from that perspective, you need defense to win the tournament.
44:49
Speaker 1: I get that. But they go on these stretches, uh,
44:53
Speaker 1: similar to a Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders
44:55
Speaker 1: had picked it up. Houston can go on these stretches
44:58
Speaker 1: a little bit. You're in there too, But the to
45:00
Speaker 1: go on these scoring droutes where your question, can can
45:03
Speaker 1: they sustained their offense come March. So offensively, I am
45:07
Speaker 1: a little bit concerned. I know it's changed since Dean
45:10
Speaker 1: Wade came back from from his injury, and and we
45:13
Speaker 1: start to see in Kansas stay picking up athensically, especially
45:16
Speaker 1: from the perimeter. But offensively, I think that's what's gonna
45:19
Speaker 1: hold this team back. I'm not the biggest fan of
45:21
Speaker 1: Kansas State come March and then who are there? Who
45:24
Speaker 1: are the other two teams brought up Washington and else
45:26
Speaker 1: Washington Washington and Houston Okay, and then Washington I got
45:30
Speaker 1: a two one value to begin the season. So I
45:34
Speaker 1: was a big fan of what Mike Hopkins, who is
45:36
Speaker 1: a former syer Accusa system UH the two three zone
45:39
Speaker 1: that he's brought up west UH northwest to to to
45:43
Speaker 1: U W and and the zone has played really well
45:46
Speaker 1: in Pact to All Play, and they're adjusted defensive efficiency
45:50
Speaker 1: is spiked up to this is the top adjusted DEFENSI
45:53
Speaker 1: efficiency in the Pact twelve. I get people are going
45:56
Speaker 1: to say the Pact twelve is down this year, but
45:59
Speaker 1: that hasn't only been the case. Again, you can't really
46:02
Speaker 1: just just say that and assume Washington is going to
46:06
Speaker 1: be done early in the tournament. This team has a
46:08
Speaker 1: ton of scoring options. Noah Dickinson is a really good
46:11
Speaker 1: download big Positis and j lived A. Weell has has
46:15
Speaker 1: ascended as well as a score in in UH Inpact
46:18
Speaker 1: to All Play really dynamics somethmore. He's come back and
46:22
Speaker 1: he's been a big plus for then David Chris can
46:25
Speaker 1: struct it from three. So Washington has a ton of
46:27
Speaker 1: offensive options along with that zone that's fostered a ton
46:31
Speaker 1: of opponents. They got exposed against Arizona State a couple
46:34
Speaker 1: of weeks back, and that was more of a letdown
46:37
Speaker 1: game because Washington had it lost in Pact All play
46:40
Speaker 1: and Arizona State was coming off just a terrible loss
46:43
Speaker 1: to Washington State at home. So you're looking at our
46:46
Speaker 1: bounce back performance. But as much as I like Washington
46:50
Speaker 1: Chad defensively, that zone can get exposed. I was talking
46:54
Speaker 1: about Duke's zone last year getting exposed and how it
46:57
Speaker 1: how it played well for them against Louisville. Going back
47:00
Speaker 1: to last week, but over the weekend, Washington State almost
47:04
Speaker 1: knocked off Washington. I know that's an in state rivalry game,
47:08
Speaker 1: but they shot the lights out from three. So where
47:10
Speaker 1: do zones get exposed, it's from beyond the ark, and
47:14
Speaker 1: in Washington State almost did that to Mike Hopkins's crew,
47:17
Speaker 1: So I'm not necessarily all the way in on Washington.
47:19
Speaker 1: I do like the value I got the man, and
47:21
Speaker 1: if you can get them at triple digits, it's it's
47:23
Speaker 1: really good value for a potential eight seed, the nine
47:26
Speaker 1: c that can make a run of the Big Dance,
47:28
Speaker 1: but I'm not all over them. And then to the
47:30
Speaker 1: last team that you brought up in Houston, h Man,
47:33
Speaker 1: do I love this team? And you go back to
47:35
Speaker 1: the last season's tournament, it was similar to why I
47:37
Speaker 1: pick trying to see as a as a as the
47:40
Speaker 1: future value. Going back to the preseason, UH Tennessee losing
47:44
Speaker 1: to loyal Chicago on that rott rattling shot from Clayton
47:47
Speaker 1: Custer and Houston going down at the buzzer to Jordan's pool.
47:51
Speaker 1: So I know they lost rob Gray going back to
47:53
Speaker 1: the last season, but this team brought back a ton
47:56
Speaker 1: of its scores. Corey Davis and Armanti Brooks can light
47:59
Speaker 1: it from three, and Davis and Gaveon Robinson are are
48:03
Speaker 1: tremendous ball handling backcourt. So you're looking at elite guard
48:07
Speaker 1: play from that standpoint. They rebound the basketball. They're they're
48:10
Speaker 1: top at d and offensive and defensive rebounding rate in
48:13
Speaker 1: the country. And and they're not the biggest team in
48:15
Speaker 1: the country, but man are they good at games rebounding,
48:18
Speaker 1: which is big cumb March. So from that perspective, and
48:21
Speaker 1: and they turned you over their on ball defense. Their
48:24
Speaker 1: ball pressure limits the opposition from getting into the paint.
48:28
Speaker 1: They have really good depth de Genderu and Nate Hinton
48:31
Speaker 1: coming off the bench and going back to a game
48:33
Speaker 1: against Cincinnati at home since Nanny Leddy wanted about six
48:37
Speaker 1: minutes left and Nate Hinton, Uh, Calvin Sampson who plugged
48:41
Speaker 1: Nate Hinton, and here and Cumberland who's one of the
48:44
Speaker 1: best scores in the A A C. And he's shut
48:47
Speaker 1: not only Cumberland down, but Houston didn't allow Cincinnati to
48:50
Speaker 1: score a single point over the last six minutes of
48:52
Speaker 1: that game. So this is a legitimate defensive team that's
48:56
Speaker 1: gonna stop you consistently, and that's what he needed, March.
49:00
Speaker 1: Can a defense bring you back in the game when
49:02
Speaker 1: you're down by five to ten points. They not only
49:05
Speaker 1: did that against its natty, but they did it against
49:07
Speaker 1: a red hot LSU team going back to December when
49:11
Speaker 1: they were down double digits in the second half and
49:13
Speaker 1: they came back and won that game by six and
49:15
Speaker 1: nearly covered on the line. I got a day before that.
49:18
Speaker 1: So the Cougars are legit under a Sampson uh that
49:23
Speaker 1: that's one of the tournament consistently going back to these
49:26
Speaker 1: days at Indiana and Oklahoma. All Right, so basically what
49:28
Speaker 1: you're saying to me is I should uh reevaluate all
49:31
Speaker 1: the futures bets I made, because the one I didn't
49:33
Speaker 1: make after listening to you guys was Houston. So I'm
49:36
Speaker 1: basically going to go back in right now and uh
49:39
Speaker 1: double down on Houston. Eli Herskovich, Action Network College basketball Writer,
49:45
Speaker 1: Thanks for everything you've been doing. It's great stuff, obviously.
49:49
Speaker 1: Uh We'll be hearing more and more from you during
49:51
Speaker 1: the rest of the season into the tournament. Thanks man awesome,
49:55
Speaker 1: make sure of me on Chad all right. Eli Herskovich,
49:58
Speaker 1: college basketball expert for the Action Network, Thanks so much
50:01
Speaker 1: for joining us, Buddy. This has been the favorite podcast
50:04
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. You can listen to us at
50:06
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, at radio dot com, slash the Action networker
50:11
Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcast. We will be back on Thursday,
50:16
Speaker 1: mean black Jack Fletcher. We'll have some special guests until then.