Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 475 - 3/16/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 475 - 3/16/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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543. 21 all systems. Go with Josh Applebaum starts
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now. Hello and welcome to episode
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475. Of the All Systems Go sports
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betting podcast. Powered by Rhythm, I'm your host
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Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
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Everyone happy? Monday another.
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Day here in the arena. Guys, and it happens.
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To be one of the best Mondays of the year.
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Because we got March Madness. Week.
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Right here, right now, the bracket got unveiled.
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Yesterday was. Selection Sunday brackets are
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out. There for you to fill out.
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Again, we've talked about contrarian brackets, so.
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If you're looking at. The the current odds and.
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The whole point of a. Contrarian bracket is picking a
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different. Champion than everyone else
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because. Everyone.
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Focuses on the outside and trying to get all your early
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games right. I'm not.
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Going to say it doesn't matter but you got to.
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Remember the way all these. Brackets are are are.
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Situated in the scoring, you know, the way they're.
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Scored is that you get more points the deeper you.
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Go so. Getting your champion right is
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way more. Important than getting a great.
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Start and hitting all your first round games so.
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Reminder picking a different champion.
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Basically means. Betting on any team other.
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Than Duke, Duke is. Plus 300 number one.
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Seed. Vast majority of brackets are.
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Going to be taking Duke. Michigan's plus 360 second best
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odds. You could maybe.
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Buy low on Michigan because they they just lost.
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And maybe. You're getting a better number
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there because Michigan was favored.
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For much of the year. Arizona's plus 390 the data
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analytics love Arizona and. Florida is plus 750.
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No one else is in the, you know. More than or less than.
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Double digits or you know, plus 1000 or worse so.
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Between those teams, you know. Just taking any team other.
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Than Duke, you're going to. You know.
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Differentiate yourself a little bit.
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I'm thinking Florida +7. 50. By low they end up.
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Losing to to Vanderbilt. There, so you might be.
2:01
Able to buy low. In Florida, Arizona.
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Obviously the analytics love them.
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But the whole point is just picking.
2:06
Champion other than Duke so. I'm in a bracket contest which
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I've done forever with my. Buddies, my buddy.
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Lars is the. Commissioner, he's been doing it
2:14
since we were in college, so I'm dating myself, but I graduated
2:17
in 2009, so again, it's been a while here.
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Proud of proud UVM alum. By the way, Vermont Catamounts,
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even though they lost, couldn't make it to the Big Dance.
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But I'll be doing several brackets and I'm definitely
2:27
going to have Arizona and Florida.
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As a couple of my champions, just to differentiate myself, so
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we'll talk more. About the contrarian bracket
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later. In the week now we.
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Don't have any games for. Tonight, but I do have. 3 early
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bets. For Thursday and Friday that I
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have already put in and they are matching in terms of line.
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Movement. Sharp mush edges.
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Bet. Splits rhythm predicted edges as
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well. So I will give you 3.
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Early bets for Thursday and Friday and then you might be
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saying yourself, but Josh, what are?
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You going to do tonight? Well.
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I have an NBA. Play for you.
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That's right, NBA. I'm.
2:59
Dipping my toe back. Into the NBA.
3:01
Because I want some action tonight and there is a game that
3:04
I didn't really search out but it found.
3:05
Me. So we'll talk about one NBA play
3:08
here for tonight and then reminder the 1st. 4 kicks off
3:11
tomorrow so we will have. Some first four action.
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And we got, you know, the. NI.
3:16
TCBII. Can't even keep.
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Track of all the different names but.
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There will be other games. We can bet on obviously over the
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next few days, so. Early March Madness.
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Sharp report. 1. NBA play for tonight.
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And then? We'll see if we can again start
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off our March Madness week on a hot.
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Note. Before I or actually.
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I'll just say this recapping the.
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Last few days guys. Don't let us get hot, that's all
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I'm saying. Remember back on Friday 3 and O
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Plus? 2.12 units.
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We had Saint Joseph's. Southern and San Diego State.
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All come through for the team. And then if you.
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Sign up to. Get the all systems.
3:49
Go best bet picks from. Juice Reel.
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Or you read the sharp reports that I write every day for
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visen.com. It was a 2.
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In one Saturday, plus 0.57 units had Utah.
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State and Kennesaw State come. Through.
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Only loser was Utah Valley and I this doesn't happen.
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Often. But I went to bed, we're two and
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oh, I'm like. Hey, maybe I'll wake up.
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To a three. And oh, but at least we
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guaranteed a winning day. Utah Valley kind of lost in
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heartbreaking fashion. They're late.
4:13
Kid hit a three to beat us. But a nice little two and oh on.
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Sunday plus 1.5. Units.
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With VCU. On the money line.
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And Arkansas Plus. Two and half winning out.
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It's so nice little stretch here of what is that 7 and one last
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8. So let's see if we can keep it
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rolling into March Madness. Week now before.
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I dive into our NBA play for tonight and of course.
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Early March Madness bets. If you want to.
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You know, we can sit back and just.
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Listen to the breakdowns. You can get in on them now, I've
4:39
already bet. Them we'll kind of wet.
4:41
Your wet your. Whistle here with some March.
4:43
Madness plays. But I do want to mention.
4:45
Because I tease. This on Friday.
4:47
And end up. Putting it in place and getting
4:50
it out there for the world yesterday and I've been
4:53
mentioning it, but it's now. Officially here for you guys.
4:55
To enter it is the. March Madness Survivor contest
4:58
It's. Officially the.
4:59
Applebaum, March Madness survivor.
5:03
So my friends at Splash Sports, so really excited.
5:06
Team up with them. Once again had a great.
5:08
Experience with Splash Sports. And myself.
5:11
Combining for an NFL survivor. Contest.
5:14
Then we had a. Playoff Survivor.
5:16
And now we have a. March Madness Survivor.
5:18
So I know you guys. Are filling out your brackets.
5:20
Will be betting the games. Together, but I just.
5:22
Wanted to mention that. I am officially am inviting.
5:25
You all to come join. The Applebaum March Madness
5:27
survivor. Contest with Splash Sports,
5:29
it's. 25 bucks an entry so not breaking the bank.
5:33
And the whole point is. You just got to pick.
5:35
One team each. Day to win, so you got to get
5:38
through, you know? Round one, round two, round 3
5:41
again, all the way. Sweet 16 Elite Eight final. 4
5:45
champion and whoever survives, survive in advance.
5:48
So we're. It's almost our own March
5:49
Madness we're liking. A college basketball team.
5:51
We just got to keep winning. Keep.
5:53
Picking a team that survives it. Probably is going to be easy.
5:56
A lot of big chalk early, but. You know, if you use Duke,
5:59
here's where it gets. You know, a little interesting.
6:01
Let's say you use Duke. In round one against.
6:03
Siena. They're favored by 20. 9 1/2.
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Points. Is Duke going to win?
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Yeah, very, very likely they're going to.
6:08
Win, but then you've used Duke and you can never use them
6:11
again. So little, little strategy as a
6:14
former president, like like. Like to say.
6:17
But again, I hope everyone can join.
6:19
The payout? Pool is as high as $11,250.
6:24
So. It's very, very simple.
6:25
Very. Easy to join.
6:27
All you have to do is go to my. Twitter page at Josh under score
6:30
Insights. There's a pinned.
6:32
Tweet at the very top of my page.
6:34
You'll have the link. To the Applebaum March Madness
6:36
Survivor contest. So click that you can have.
6:38
I believe up to 10. Entries if you're interested.
6:42
And then of course, I'm really rooting for someone.
6:44
Who listens to the pod? To win some some good extra cash
6:47
here for March Madness. So if you have any questions,
6:49
you can always. Send me a direct message on
6:51
Twitter at Josh under Score Insights.
6:54
But just come on down. Even if you.
6:55
Want to just do? One bracket or or one, you know,
6:58
survivor entry, the more the merrier.
7:01
So it's only been, it's. Been less than 24 hours since I
7:04
launched it. We're up to. 32 entries.
7:06
So a nice little start here. And you do have up until.
7:09
Thursday at 12:15 PM. Noonish.
7:12
Time or Eastern Time because. Once the first game tips off on
7:16
Thursday, this survivor pool is closed.
7:19
So you have now. Until Thursday, but I'd love.
7:21
For you guys to join. And I hope someone.
7:23
Listening here wins wins 11 K. Wouldn't that be a nice?
7:27
Start to. Or finish to March Madness.
7:29
So come join the. Applebaum March Madness Survivor
7:32
contest. I'm also going to throw the link
7:34
inside the body. Or the description of the.
7:36
Podcast. So if you are on iTunes.
7:39
Or Spotify or whatever when it says hey in episode 470.
7:42
Five Josh dishes out yada yada NBA best.
7:45
Bet early March Madness plays, just Scroll down.
7:47
There'll be a link. Right there.
7:49
To get right into the Survivor contest, but.
7:51
Come on down, join the. Survivor and we'll see.
7:54
You can Who can be the last man or woman standing?
7:57
Now with that being said, as we get a big, big week here ahead,
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guys, I want to start. Off with some early March
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Madness best bets that I made. And then I'm.
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Going to save the NBA. Play for tonight at the very
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end. So a lot to talk about when it
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comes. To March Madness.
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I will just tell you there are two things.
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Going on with. These first 3.
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Plays that I made one is the fact that.
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These are just classic sharp money indicators where we are
8:20
getting. Low bets, higher dollars line.
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Movement. Maybe there's a good Ken Palm
8:24
edge. Maybe there's a good rhythm or
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juice. Real edge.
8:27
But they all. Happen to be short.
8:28
Money line favorites. So you might be saying.
8:30
Yourself, Josh. It's March Madness.
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There's all these upsets. What are you doing playing these
8:34
favorites? Well, hey, these favorites could
8:36
lose. Out right, you never know.
8:38
But here's the thing. The market.
8:39
Is moving in their favor. For all these games I'm going to
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talk about #2 is. The fact that we've had.
8:45
Good success with money lining. Short favorites.
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This is kind. Of right in our wheelhouse.
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In terms of identifying favorites.
8:51
That. Hopefully will win the game.
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May not cover the -3 1/2 but might win by 1.
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Or two. So hopefully we can.
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Catch some tickets here. But then secondly.
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I'll just mention. This and it.
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Could be totally wrong. Maybe we go back to.
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Crazy upsets and brackets being busted in round one, but there
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was a great. Article by David.
9:09
Purdum, who was a great follow on Twitter at David Purdum.
9:13
And he writes for ESPN Chalk and he wrote an article talking
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about. The last like.
9:17
Four or five March. Madnesses have been.
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Very, very, very, very, very chalky if you remember last
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year. Tons of favorites, not a lot of
9:27
upsets there was interesting, kind of.
9:29
Theory behind it. Which is nil, so with.
9:32
Nil. Taking over name image like.
9:34
This and these. Players getting paid.
9:37
If you look at basically you almost like like not a salary
9:40
cap, but the the salary of each team you know.
9:43
The best teams have spent. You know. $50 million a $100
9:47
million on their roster. The smaller teams, you know
9:51
these. Kids aren't getting paid much.
9:52
And basically what I think the point of that is.
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You know, the really good players who get.
9:57
Paid a lot are getting. Paid by the big powerhouse team,
10:00
so there's. Just kind of an unfair imbalance
10:02
like since nil the tournament. 'S become very, very chalky.
10:05
Just again, the powerhouse teams are not losing.
10:08
So does that mean it's? Going to be every favorite
10:10
winning and covering. No, I'm sure there's going to be
10:12
some up to upsets, but I guess. To me.
10:15
You know when I first. Started working at Sports
10:17
Insights. My first job in the industry
10:19
back in 2011. So, you know, it's been a while
10:22
here. But it was just like.
10:24
Upsets left and right. Now again with nil.
10:27
And and the landscape changing. It's been chalky.
10:29
So the fact that we've done had a good.
10:31
Year with money lining short. Favorites.
10:33
It's been really chalky. And these systems and and.
10:37
And line moves are all lining up.
10:39
In favor of these short. Favorites.
10:40
Hey tells me that. Might as well take a shot, see
10:43
if these teams can advance for us.
10:45
So that being said, I got 3 plays for you.
10:47
They are opening round games on. Thursday and Friday I got.
10:50
Two Thursday games I got. One Friday game.
10:53
So first. But on the board for me, this is
10:55
Thursday, 7:35 PM Eastern. Time we have Texas A&M playing
11:00
St. Mary's now Texas.
11:02
A&M comes in 21 and 11 on the. Year they are the 10 seed.
11:05
Just got blown out by. Oklahoma 83 to 60.
11:07
Three in the second. Round of the SEC.
11:09
Tournament. They lost that game.
11:10
Outright as a 2 point neutral site favorite.
11:13
Meanwhile, Saint Mary's. 27 and 5.
11:15
They are the seven seed. Just came up short against Santa
11:18
Clara. 76 to 71. And the WCC.
11:22
Tournament semifinal. They lost outright.
11:23
As a 4 1/2 point neutral site favorite so.
11:26
What we've seen across the market here.
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This game opened. With Saint Mary's listed as a. 2
11:30
1/2 point. Neutral site favorite and the
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public doesn't know what to. Do they're 5050?
11:35
Down the middle, yeah. St.
11:37
Mary's better record laying some.
11:38
Points but also Texas AM. Big.
11:40
Big name school in the. SEC so 50.
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Again, what are we always? Talk about 50. 50 A line should
11:46
not. Move at all, however.
11:47
Despite a 5050 ticket. Split at DraftKings, we've seen
11:51
the line move. Toward the Gales Saint Mary.
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'S has gone from. -2 1/2. Up to -3 or minus. 3 1/2.
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And again. 5050 line shouldn't. Move at all yet it.
11:59
Has so that. Tells me even though the public.
12:02
Doesn't know what to do. Smart money has sided with.
12:04
Saint Mary's here. Now Saint Mary's only 50%
12:07
tickets. At DK but 62.
12:09
Percent of spread dollars. You can look over at.
12:11
Circa 80% of spread bets, 95% of spread dollars on Saint Mary's.
12:17
So both. Books, in particular Circa out
12:19
in Vegas. Showing a really good split.
12:21
On the Gales now Ken Palm as Saint Mary's.
12:24
Winning by three. 76 to 70. Three, he does have the gales
12:27
ranked higher, 24th versus 39th in the country.
12:31
But you know me. I'm money lining a short
12:33
favorite here. I was able to get.
12:35
Saint Mary. 'S on the money line at -150 I
12:39
would. Hate to see Saint Mary's, you
12:40
know, win by 1-2 or three and you lose because you laid a 3
12:43
1/2. Should get.
12:44
Saint Mary's Minus. 1:50 at the score, Formerly ESPN.
12:47
Bet, but shop around. Cuz some books are closer to
12:50
-160. Saint Mary's has.
12:52
A bunch of distinct advantages. Better offensive efficiency 40.
12:56
3rd in the country versus 49th for the Aggies.
12:59
Better. Defensive efficiency 19th versus
13:02
40. First, better offensive rebound
13:04
percentage. 15th versus 116th they have the better. 3 point.
13:08
Shooting 13th versus 47th. Better free throw.
13:11
Shooting first in the country. Did You Know?
13:13
Saint Mary's number one free throw percentage.
13:15
In the country 100 and. 48th. For Texas A&M.
13:19
And the gales. Hold their opponents to better.
13:21
Effective field goal percentage 18th.
13:23
Versus 140? 3rd doesn't.
13:25
Hurt that Saint Mary's. Again, not that it's.
13:27
A huge. Deal.
13:28
But they do have. A three day rest advantage.
13:30
Last played on March 9th. Aggies last played on March
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12th. So we got a. 5050 line move
13:36
towards. Saint Mary's Ken Palms got him
13:38
by. Three we.
13:38
Can money line them -1? 50 at the score and oh by the
13:41
way, popped open Juice Reel. Noticed a 20. 7% sharp mush
13:46
edge. On the Saint Mary's money line.
13:48
So good amount of sharp. Players like you guys.
13:50
Listening who have downloaded. And synced up their books.
13:53
At Juice Reel, also going Saint Mary's.
13:55
So, first official bet for me in pocket.
13:57
I've already made the play. Saint Mary's money line.
14:00
Thursday, 7:35 PM. -150 let's go gales.
14:05
Next one for you. I think if you like Saint
14:08
Mary's. You like Georgia?
14:10
Let's go to a 9:45 PM game. Late night on Thursday St.
14:14
Louis playing Georgia. Now Saint Louis comes in 28 and
14:17
5. On the.
14:18
Year they are the nine seed. Just lost a heartbreaker.
14:21
Though to. Dayton, 70 to 60.
14:22
Nine in the. 810 semi final tournament.
14:25
Lost outright as a four point. 4 1/2 point.
14:27
Neutral site favorite. Meanwhile, Georgia 20. 2 and 10.
14:31
They are the eight seed. Just lost the Ole Miss. 76 to 72
14:35
in the. Second round of the SEC.
14:37
Tournament, they're actually. 5 1/2 point neutral site favorite
14:40
lost out right. Ole Miss Made.
14:42
Kind of an. Improbable deep run there in
14:44
that tournament. Now what have we seen across the
14:46
market? Well, this game opened.
14:48
With Georgia listed as a. 1 1/2. Point neutral site favorite, so
14:52
very very short. Number and once.
14:54
Again, public doesn't know what to do.
14:56
We have Saint Louis with a better record.
14:58
But Georgia's from the SEC. Georgia's laying points.
15:01
What do we do? Well, Publix once again. 5050
15:04
undecided. But yet we have another. 5050
15:06
line move because even though the tickets are 5050 at DK, we
15:10
have seen the line go. Up to Georgia -1 and a.
15:13
Half up to -2 1/2 and I am seeing some shops creep up to
15:16
minus. 3 So that's why I definitely want to put this one
15:19
in. Early, hopefully get some CLV.
15:21
Here now. You look at the splits.
15:23
At DraftKings, 49% spread bets. 77.
15:28
Percent spread dollars on Georgia.
15:30
So nice low bets. Higher dollar split on the.
15:32
Bulldogs now Ken Palm is Georgia winning, but only by two.
15:35
Points 86 to 84. He does have the Bulldogs.
15:38
However, ranked higher, 32nd in the country verse 41st.
15:42
But you know me. Money lining short Favorite
15:44
crazy things happen in March Madness, Maybe George's down by
15:47
1 and. Hits A2 to win it.
15:49
Maybe they're up by 5 and the other kid hits a three at the
15:52
buzzer to make a win by. 2. Fouling turnovers again.
15:55
Crazy stuff. Happens so another reason to
15:57
money line a short favorite here.
15:59
So I played Georgia. On the money line at. -146.
16:03
I got that at I believe FanDuel. But again, shop around because.
16:08
Some books are closer. To minus. 150 -, 160.
16:12
Georgia has some. Advantages here Better
16:13
offensive. Efficiency 16th in the country.
16:16
Verse 51st. For Saint Louis.
16:19
Better offensive rebound percentage. 48th versus 161st.
16:23
Better free throw shooting. 67th.
16:25
Versus 104th. They commit fewer turnovers on.
16:28
Offense, so protect the ball. Don't give it up. 32nd in the
16:31
country versus 200 and 30th for Saint Louis and Georgia.
16:35
Forces more turnovers. On D. 77th versus 219th.
16:39
Lastly, another little bit of a rest.
16:41
Advantage because Georgia last played on March 12th.
16:44
St. Louis played on March 14th.
16:47
So 5050 line move to Georgia also A7.
16:51
Percent. Nothing crazy but A7.
16:53
Percent sharp mush edge on Georgia from our friends at
16:55
Juice Reel. And oh, by the way.
16:57
Rhythm has Georgia -3. .8 so they're. -2 1/2 rhythms got them
17:01
almost -4 hopefully. Some protection and incentive
17:05
there to just go money. Line so second.
17:07
Play for me, Georgia Bulldogs. 9:45 PM Eastern Time on
17:11
Thursday. Georgia money line. -146.
17:15
Last bet so far we're. Going to have more, don't worry.
17:18
But so far, let's go to a. Friday night game 10/10.
17:21
PM Eastern Time Missouri facing. Miami now Mizzou comes in 20 and
17:26
12. On the year, they are the 10
17:28
seed just lost to Kentucky, 78 to 72 in the second round of the
17:32
SEC. Tournament did not cover.
17:34
As a 2 1/2 point neutral site dog.
17:36
You know Miami 25 and 8 on the year.
17:39
They're the seven seed. But they.
17:40
Just got dominated by Virginia. 84 to 60.
17:43
Two in the ACC. Tournament semifinal did not.
17:45
Cover as a 3 1/2 point neutral site dog so.
17:48
What do you see across the market here?
17:50
This game open with Miami. Listed as a very short. 1 1/2
17:53
point. Neutral site favorite.
17:55
And it's always notable to me you open as a very short
17:58
favorite again. What do the sharps do?
18:00
Do they say hey wrong team is favored that?
18:03
Dog it should be a pick them or maybe it should be the dog
18:05
favored or do they say hey this is a bit.
18:07
Of a light number on the. Favorite.
18:09
We should hit them. 'Cause that line to go up a
18:10
little. More.
18:11
Or do they say it's spot on and there's no.
18:12
No reason to bet it, because remember when.
18:15
It comes to wise guys. Sharps, pros, whatever you want
18:17
to call them. They're only betting if they
18:18
have an edge. They're not betting.
18:19
Because they want the. Action, they're not betting
18:21
because. You know they're letting their.
18:22
Favoritism come. Into play.
18:23
It's all data. Analytics.
18:25
That's why they always say Sharp's bet numbers, not.
18:27
Teams, however, in this case. Not a huge line move.
18:31
But I noticed that all liabilities.
18:33
Been on Miami because Miami open -1 1/2 - 110.
18:37
I am now seeing Miami -1 1/2 - 1. 15 or -120 and some books are
18:42
up. To -2 some books.
18:45
Even at one point I. Believe touched 2 1/2.
18:48
It's notable to me that. You have a.
18:49
Lot of -1 1/2 but. Circa out in Vegas.
18:52
Has Miami -2. So anytime circa is more
18:55
bullish. Because they take in.
18:57
Smart money on a side, then the rest of the.
18:59
Market. That's a good sign.
19:01
So tells me that Miami. Is a sneaky sneaky sharp here.
19:06
We've never seen this line get down to -1 or lower.
19:08
It's always. Been juiced up or moving toward?
19:10
Miami now bet splits don't. Look amazing or anything?
19:14
Miami's getting 50. 8% of spread bets, 59% of spread dollars at.
19:18
DK So. Kind of pro and Joe I.
19:20
Do like the fact, however, at least Miami's not getting. 7080%
19:23
of tickets. Here's what I really.
19:25
Like about Miami, though, Ken Palms got him winning by three.
19:28
Ken Palms got him winning. 77 to 70.
19:30
Four. He's got him ranked higher, 31st
19:32
in the country. Verse 52nd.
19:34
So if they're sitting. -1 and half minus.
19:36
Two and Ken Palms. Got him by three.
19:38
Not a bad edge, right? There I did also.
19:41
Money line Miami, as you might. Expect this is pretty widely
19:45
available. But I got him at. -120.
19:47
Five at the score. Some books are minus. 1:30 So
19:49
definitely try to find that best price.
19:52
Miami has some advantages here. Better offensive.
19:54
Efficiency 33rd versus 50th better.
19:57
Defensive efficiency 38th versus. 78th Better offensive
20:01
rebound percentage 17th. Versus 38th, they commit fewer.
20:05
Turnovers on offense 100 and. 50th may not sound great, but
20:08
Mizzou is 200 and. 68th and EU. Forces more turnovers on.
20:12
Defense so. Get a steal.
20:14
Get a. Block get out in transition.
20:16
They rank 82nd versus 183rd for Missouri.
20:20
So, Ken Palms. Got it by three.
20:21
Juice movement liability toward Miami.
20:23
But here's where it gets even better.
20:25
Popped open juice reel 11% sharp mush edge on Miami.
20:29
So. 11% more the winning. Betters are going Miami.
20:32
But here's what I really like. When I opened up.
20:34
Rhythm. I had a model.
20:36
On Miami recommendation on Miami saying they should be minus. 3
20:40
point. 6 So good edge there. What I really like?
20:43
Is that rhythm had a green actually two of them.
20:45
Green Star Money line recommendation.
20:48
So anytime you see that. Green Star smart signal.
20:52
And you're. Feeling like if your money line
20:54
is short? Favorite and.
20:54
Then I go to. Rhythm and they also have a
20:56
green star that's. Typically a good sign.
20:59
So rhythm is saying. Money Line Miami as well.
21:02
So I played. Miami money line minus. 125 S
21:05
St. Mary's, Georgia and Miami. 3
21:08
early bets for me and hopefully we can get.
21:11
Two out of three of these. Now, when's the last time we
21:14
talked to NBA? It's been a while.
21:16
And I just. Want to mention.
21:17
Because I've had people. Reach out to me and say, why
21:19
don't you talk NBA? Why don't you bet, NBA?
21:21
Every day. And my answer is pretty.
21:23
Simple. 1. NBA is really hard to win at
21:27
consistently. I hate when you have.
21:29
Load management or again this? Happened to me for.
21:31
Years and years where you cap a game, somebody's out the line
21:34
goes. Crazy and I just.
21:36
Don't have a ton of. You know, winning.
21:38
Edges or systems? On the NBA and.
21:40
You know, because we've done. Pretty darn well.
21:43
I would argue in college basketball.
21:45
Why would we? Force NBA just to.
21:47
Say we can bet NBA. When we're making.
21:49
Our money in college hoops. So if we're crushing college.
21:52
Hoops, Why would we be just saying, oh, I got to be a well.
21:55
Rounded better, which we all. Want to be we?
21:57
Also got to be realistic if I'm really good at college hoops and
22:00
I'm really bad at NBA. Why would I keep forcing?
22:03
NBA if it's not there. Well, that being said.
22:07
Again, doesn't mean I. Want to abandon it forever?
22:09
And again, I used to bet NBA a ton, just like I used to bet.
22:12
Hockey a ton. But sometimes over time you say,
22:15
hey, I want to focus on. What's making me money now?
22:18
There's one game tonight in the NBA.
22:20
There's eight games. Overall, there's one.
22:21
Game that I landed on. That's checking off every box.
22:24
For me. So I said, you know.
22:25
What it's one? Play.
22:27
We got no action here for tonight.
22:30
Let's see if we can just, you know, pop into NBA and get a
22:32
winner. So fingers crossed.
22:34
It happens to be. The most heavily bet game of the
22:36
night, Lakers. At the Rockets, 9:30 PM Eastern.
22:40
Time First tip. I believe this is on Peacock, or
22:43
maybe it's NBC, but two good teams.
22:45
Going head to head here. So we got the.
22:47
Lakers coming in 40. 2 and 25. On the year.
22:50
Lakers just had a big overtime win against Denver. 127 to 125
22:55
in overtime. The Rockets.
22:57
Meanwhile, 41 and 20. 5 S Very similar records.
23:01
They've kind of gone win, loss, win, loss recently.
23:03
They did just beat New Orleans one O 7 to one O 5 in their last
23:06
game. So what have we seen across the
23:08
market here? Well, this game opened Houston.
23:11
Rockets listed as a very. Short 1.
23:13
And a half point home favorite. And the public is saying the
23:16
wrong team is favored. You got to take LeBron and
23:19
Doncic. They're getting points.
23:21
So public is all over the LA Lakers they are getting. 63% of
23:26
spread. Bets in the most heavily back
23:28
game of the night. So let's just stop right there.
23:30
Most heavily back game? Primetime game. 2/3 of bets on
23:34
the Lakers automatically contrarian, fading the public.
23:37
I want to be on. Houston, but.
23:38
What do we always talk about? Going contrarian is a.
23:41
Foundation. It's not the end all be all.
23:43
You want to 1st. Just get on the side.
23:45
Of the house go against the masses who typically.
23:48
Lose. But you also want to.
23:49
Incorporate an element of smart money.
23:51
And we are actually seeing that here.
23:53
Because rockets open minus. 1 1/2 rockets are now up to -2 or
23:57
minus. 2 1/2. So in the most heavily bet game
23:59
of the. Night if the public.
24:00
'S on the Lakers. Why is this line creeping up
24:03
toward the Rockets? So second indicator.
24:05
There is not just a contrarian play, but smart money hitting
24:09
the Rockets causing that feed the trendy.
24:11
Dog reverse line movement. Then we get to the.
24:13
Splits at DK the Rockets. Are only getting 37% of spread
24:17
bets but 57% of spread. Dollars so good.
24:21
Low bets. Higher dollar split on.
24:23
Houston, then, because I'm money lining a short favorite, here I
24:27
went. Rockets -135 I believe that was
24:31
at, I think it was. At.
24:32
The score. Maybe, maybe FanDuel, but again.
24:36
Shop around some books. Are like -140.
24:38
But. Then we get to the money line
24:39
splits I went. Over to Circa Circa. 50% money
24:43
line bets 97%. Money line dollars on Houston.
24:47
So a great low bets, higher dollar split.
24:49
Here on the Rockets to win the game.
24:52
So we got low bets, higher dollars.
24:53
On both the spread in the money. Line we can money line.
24:56
Ourselves protect. Ourselves on the off chance you
24:59
know Dodge hits 1/2 court 3 and makes Houston.
25:02
Win by one or two. Instead of you know what?
25:05
Four or five. But here's where it gets even
25:07
more interesting. We got a bit of.
25:09
A rest first. Tired.
25:10
Advantage here for the Houston. Rockets.
25:12
Because the Rockets. They last played on March. 13th
25:16
So three days ago the. Lakers last played on March.
25:19
14th And not only that, but the Lakers played on the 10th, the
25:24
11th. Sorry, the 10th, the 12th and
25:27
now the. 14th So they are playing there, I guess if you
25:29
just go to the the the. 12th. 12th, 13th 14th Fifteen 16th
25:34
They're playing a. Third game in five days.
25:37
And they just went to. Overtime against Denver.
25:39
So not only are they. Again, kind of tired here.
25:43
They got an older team other than.
25:45
Doncic they just went to. OT.
25:48
Versus a rested, ready to go Rockets team.
25:50
Who? Has a rest advantage also.
25:54
Defensive efficiency favors the. Houston Rockets.
25:57
They ranked. 8th in the NBA versus 20th for the.
26:00
Lakers. They are 20.
26:02
Three and eight at home, so rockets one of the best home
26:04
records. Their contrarian favorite in.
26:06
Primetime, so most heavily back. Game Primetime public Lakers
26:11
contrarian Play Rockets. And then lastly I popped.
26:14
Open rhythm and I have all. And I mean all.
26:18
Of my. Spread and money line.
26:19
Recommendations pointing toward the Rockets.
26:23
So Publix on Lakers but Lions going to Rockets?
26:26
Fade the trendy dog. Contrarian favorite.
26:28
Great splits, rest. Advantage.
26:29
Better defense, good team at. Home rhythm is behind us.
26:33
I'm playing the Rockets. On the money line tonight.
26:35
Let's go e-mail. Udoka, let's get a win.
26:38
Rockets minus What did I say -135 let's go, Houston.
26:43
So that about does it for episode 4. 75 of the all.
26:46
Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
26:49
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
26:52
And I always start. First by saying thank you.
26:54
Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in, thank
26:56
you for taking. The time out of your day, out of
26:58
your busy lives. To pull up a chair to the
27:00
virtual bar. And sweat some sharp.
27:01
Data-driven breakdowns with me. If you do enjoy this pod, I hope
27:04
you value the insights. Find them.
27:06
Helpful. Then you know what?
27:08
Scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
27:10
You know you should do give this podcast.
27:12
A five star review. On Spotify or iTunes.
27:15
If you want to leave a nice. Comment under the review section
27:17
if you want to recommend the pod to a friend or click.
27:19
The follow button or. Retweet the pod when?
27:21
I put it out on Twitter every afternoon at Josh.
27:24
Under score insights. I would appreciate any or all of
27:27
those things. Next, if you enjoy the.
27:29
Style of sports betting breakdown.
27:31
Data. Driven sharp contrarian betting
27:33
focusing on line movement bets split system matches betting
27:36
based on what the. Numbers are telling us not what
27:38
our bias. Is telling us.
27:40
If this style of. Betting has appealed to you.
27:42
You want to learn more? About data-driven betting, we
27:44
have someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips
27:47
I would love for you. To go to Amazon.com.
27:49
And type in the Everything guide to sports betting.
27:52
Or type. In the NFL, sharp betting.
27:54
Playbook. Those are the two books.
27:55
I've written very proud of both. They're jam packed with great
27:58
data-driven. Tips and insights.
28:00
So if you want to grab one or both my books.
28:02
Bring them the sports book I'll sign them for.
28:04
You buy a beer. Or ginger ale.
28:06
We'll. Sweat some some NBA.
28:07
Tonight again, which we. Haven't done in a while.
28:10
Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
28:12
My 2. Favorite sports betting apps
28:14
They. Help me win.
28:14
They're going to help you win. So Rhythm.
28:16
Great for their AI backed models and predictions for game bets
28:19
and player props. As well as Juice Reel.
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So many great features with Juice Reel.
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You can tell the Robo Jackson best bet picks there's.
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Two of them that come out every day at noon.
28:27
Or you can get the sharp. Mush indicators arbitrage play
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shop for the best sign futures but also if you're.
28:33
If you're turning a profit here and you got a couple extra bones
28:36
and you want to be generous, I would love for you to support
28:39
the podcast. By signing up to.
28:41
Get the all. Systems go best bet picks.
28:43
Exclusively on Juice Rail. It costs. 499 a week.
28:47
No, not. 499. Dollars a week 4.
28:50
Dollars and 99. Cents a week, so for seven.
28:53
Days even if you just want to do.
28:54
It for for March Madness. Sign up 5 bucks.
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A week you'll get 7 days worth of plays.
28:59
You'll get them as. Soon as I make them.
29:01
So right when I bet him. I got my book synced up.
29:03
I go bet it at FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever.
29:06
Case may be it goes right to the Juice Reel app.
29:09
You can tail fade, do what you like, but I'd love for you.
29:11
Guys to support the pod. And sign up to get those best
29:14
bet picks. Only on.
29:15
Juice Reel Next you have a live odds page if you don't have.
29:19
One you need one it makes your. Life so much.
29:20
Easier sports betting is never. Easy, but it makes your.
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Life easier. Because it allows you to.
29:24
Track the market, you know. Get through the the.
29:27
Noise. Find the signal.
29:29
Figure out, OK, what are all the games?
29:30
I can bet on today I need. Live scoring, live in game.
29:33
Wagering odds, but all the work. I do the homework throughout the
29:35
day, the live odds pages, my Bible.
29:38
It shows me the opening. Column that never.
29:41
Changes. It's always the opening.
29:42
Number, then to the right all the current odds.
29:44
So we can see which. Direction The line is.
29:46
Moved, we can pull up the line. History we can identify.
29:48
Steam when they. Get lit up in red.
29:50
And most of all? Finding the best price.
29:53
So if we're looking to bet rockets.
29:54
Tonight on the money line, let's find that minus. 135 versus
29:58
another book. At -140.
30:00
If you consistently get. Better numbers.
30:02
You're going to be more profitable in the end.
30:04
So I'd love for you guys to. Try odds logic.
30:06
It's the best live odds. Page around.
30:08
All you got to do is go to. Oddslogic.com/josh 123.
30:14
Make sure you do the. Slash slash Josh.
30:16
One 2-3 at the. End.
30:17
Because that's what's. Going to give you a 7 day free.
30:19
Trial and 50. Percent off your first month of
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service. Lastly, I started off the pod
30:23
mentioning it. But come join the Applebaum.
30:26
March Madness Survivor. Contest with Splash Sports. 25
30:30
bucks per entry. You can do up to. 10 entries.
30:32
You got to pick. One team each.
30:34
Day of the tournament to. Survive in advance.
30:36
You can win up to. 11,000. Dollars, so I'll put that.
30:38
Link in the. Bio of the podcast.
30:41
But you can also just go to my Twitter.
30:42
Page at Josh under score Insights.
30:44
It'll be right. There at the top.
30:46
So that about does it. For episode 475 of March.
30:49
Madness Week on a Monday. As always guys, two final.
30:52
Thoughts. One whether.
30:53
I see you at the. Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
30:55
River in Rhode Island the. Brooklyn, New Hampshire.
30:57
Foxwoods. Or Mohegan.
30:58
Sundown in Connecticut at the. Encore in Boston, plain Ridge
31:01
park casino MGM Springfield or the Nash.
31:04
And my neck of the woods on the. On the border of.
31:06
Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Or out in the desert, where the
31:09
true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his number
31:12
runners. With lowest juice possible is
31:13
found at the South. Point.
31:15
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
31:16
Jumping in the stadium. Swim pool when they catch.
31:19
A big ticket at Circa. You're going to show me?
31:21
Quite a few. Winners here since Friday.
31:23
Show me a Saint Joe's ticket. Southern San Diego State, Utah.
31:27
State Kennesaw. State VCU.
31:30
Or the Arkansas Razorbacks, and guess what?
31:32
First one's on me, next one's on you will post about the book.
31:35
So what? Some sharp contrarian plays
31:37
together? So as always, guys come off
31:40
what, 7 and one. Or.
31:41
One and seven A4 and three or three and four A5.
31:44
And two A2 and. 5 Again, whether we're hot.
31:47
Or cold, whether things are. Going our way or not, whether
31:50
we're just crushing it or getting crushed.
31:53
We can never get too high or too low.
31:54
We got to stay the. Course discipline with our
31:56
bankroll. Management flat bet.
31:58
You know, 1 unit per. Play bet Tris not bet to win.
32:01
And just grind, grind, grind, grind and just try to.
32:03
Eke out as many winning. Days as we can, so we.
32:06
Can find the. Games that fit our model against
32:09
the public. With the house with.
32:10
The pros flat bet avoid. Parlays and get that CLV if we
32:13
can do that. We're going to be successful
32:15
sports betters. So I hope.
32:17
Everyone had a great weekend. Again, congratulations, we made
32:20
it to the March Madness week so. It's going to be a great week
32:22
ahead here. Knock on wood, hope everyone has
32:25
a great night tonight and hopefully.
32:26
We can cash some tickets. As we steam into the. 1st 4 so
32:30
two big. 1st 4 matchups coming up tomorrow.
32:33
But good luck everybody. And I will see you.
32:36
Tomorrow for episode 476. Of the All Systems Go sports
32:40
betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
32:43
Good luck everybody and have a great.
32:44
Monday night.