Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / US and Iran exchange strikes in latest test of fragile ceasefire

Transcript

US and Iran exchange strikes in latest test of fragile ceasefire · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome. I'm Martin Croxall. The tenuous ceasefire between the
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: US and Iran is fraying, with the US forces attacking
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: radar sites and Iranian missiles targeting US bass. The Islamic
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran says it's fired seven ballistic
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: missiles targeting US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. It's threatened
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: to close the Strait of Ullmus to gas and oil exports.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: US Central Command says all missiles and drones were either
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: intercepted or failed to reach their targets. Earlier, the United
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: States military attacked radar sites on Iran's southern coast. These
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: are pictures released by scentcom well. The war is now
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: nearing its one hundredth day. Speaking at an event in
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the US state of Wisconsin, President Trump said it may
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: be ending soon.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: We're at a point we're going to come out of
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: around very quickly, and it's going to be very strong
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: one way or the other, whether it's a piece of
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: paper or the very tough way. Okay, the very tough
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: ways may be the easier way.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Mohammed Taha is from BBC Arabek and has a roundup
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: of the latest developments in the region.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: In general, we saw a night that the war returned
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: back with kind of full power in the Middle East,
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: to so Israeli attacks on the southern of Lebanon and
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: on Gaza, and also, as you mentioned in your introduction,
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: the tense situation around Strait of Hormos where there were
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: four Iranian drones were intercepted in this area and also
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: some raiders as the US said, in some of the
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: islands in the Strait of Hormos, and the retaliation from
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: Iran was attacking alis Alim Air Base in Kuwait, attacking
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: parts of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and causing also
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: some warnings to American ships in the in the in
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: the Gulf, and also even warning aeroplane carriers American aeroplane
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: carriers in the Gulf and pushing them down to the
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Pacific Ocean. So we saw massive military operation in the
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: region overnight ahmed Aha.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the army says that several of its soldiers,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: including an officer, were killed in an Israeli airs strike
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: on a marked military vehicle in the south of the country.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: A correspondent in a sent job that's the latest from
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: their route.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: Israel has not commented on this attack yet, but you know,
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: this is not the first time that army soldiers come
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: under fire throughout this war in the South. But the
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: timing of this attack is really critical. It comes day
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: one day after you know, the US and Lebanon and
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: Israel announced that you know, a partial conditional truce supported
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: by the Americans, and it really leaves little confidence in
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: the army to be able to be deployed in the
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: agreed pilot zones to monitor the situation because Zil simply
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: be under fire either from Hesbolah or from Israel.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: That wasn't safe Fardale agreed between Israel and Lebanon, but
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Hasbollah has rejected it. So where does that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: Leave everyone, Well, exactly, it leaves us where we're seeing
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: because you know, yesterday there were still strikes in the
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: South and eighteen people killed. Today this there's this strike
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: on the Lebanese army. But also to remind our audience
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: that this partial truth that was agreed mainly to stop
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: hostilities and spare the capital Beirut from any attacks, it
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: also provides that Hesbulah should stop any attack on Israel
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: before Israel, you know, continues to stop you know, any
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: attacks on south of Lebanon. And this agreement also doesn't
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: say anything about the withdrawal of Israeli troops from south
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: of Lebanon. And that's exactly why Hesbulah is using this
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: against the government and saying that they're rejecting this deal. Categorically.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: The issue is for the Lebanese government, they feel that
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: they're trapped between either you know, failure and defeat and
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: by agreeing to this you know, agreement or suicidal for
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: the whole country. The government wants a gradual approach to
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: end these hostilities and find you know, a lasting solution
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: for the south, but his Belah is blowing everything in
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: the air with their rejection of this deal.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Sinjab in Beirut. Doctor Rowena Binti Abdul Razak is a
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: lecturer in Iranian history at Saaras University in London. I
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: asked her about the current state at the ceasefire.
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: Well, at the moment, clearly there is no ceasefire in place,
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: and I think this sort of speaks to the fundamental
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: problem that the negotiations between the US and Iran had
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: was different sort of goals. Abbasarachi has said that you know,
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: he's not looking for a ceasefire, but rather a long
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: term peace. And at the moment, we're seeing these volleys
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: exchanges of missiles between the US and Iran, Iran attacking
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: US basis in Kuwaitan Bahrain, and so on, and part
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: of me wonders if this could be actually a negotiating
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: tactic on both sides.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: In what way to how would that help them?
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: Well, at the moment, as we know that the peace talks,
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: the ceasefire talks kind of broke down over the weekend
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: and it was quite fragile to begin with. So now
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: a little break sort of allows both sides to kind
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: of remind each other what they're capable of. Iran showing
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: that it's able to still limit the kinds of ships
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: that go through the Straits of Homos and the US
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: is able to still you know, attack Iran if it
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: needs to. So it also sort of, you know, shows
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: what the other side is capable of. And I think,
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: you know, from Trump's statements, we can see that they're
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: still very much open to negotiating with Iran. So it's
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: very possible that these change of missiles kind of you know,
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: brings more to the negotiating table shows what kind of
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: sticks are actually are actually there.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: In fact, President Trump has indicated that he would welcome
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: or be happy to speak to the Iranian Supreme Leader,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: but what do we know about the whereabouts and the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: well being of the Supreme Leader. He was caught up
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: in those air strikes in which members of his family
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: were killed at the very beginning exactly.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: And this is also another fundamental issue, is that key
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: Iranian leaders are at threat. They are they do face
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: a security threat from you know, potential US and Israeli strikes,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: and so that's probably one of the reasons why we
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: haven't seen the new Supreme Leader since his appointment from
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: you know, taking over from his father. So's it's a
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: bit of a it's a bit of a mystery, to
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: be honest, But I think the Ranian government has shown
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: that it's kind of able to still maintain power, maintain
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: a campaign again the US without him actually showing up.
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: So I think the US is trying to sort of
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: push Iran to reveal much about but at the same time,
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: I think they're not going to do this at this point.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Israel has been attacking Lebanon following a rocket fire from
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Hezbola how does that part of the conflict affect the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: prospects of a settlement between Iran and the US.
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: Well, Iran has been very clear that it wants to
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: tie what happens to Lebanon with what happens in Iran
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: to Iran. So Iran has shown that this is not
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: just a bilateral issue, it's actually a regional issue. So
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: by bringing by by tying Lebanon's fate to Iran's fate,
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: it sort of shows that they're not looking for just
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: a simple bilateral solution. It really calls to it really
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: shows that Iran is looking for a regional solution for
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: its allies, especially Hasbola in the south of Lebanon, and
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: for Lebanon in general. Yeah, so clearly they want to
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: make to make it not just a by literature, but
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: a regional one.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Doctor Lorena Binti Abdul Ruszak from Savas University in London