Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Trump, Congress September To-Do List (August 10, 2026)

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Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Trump, Congress September To-Do List (August 10, 2026) · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
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  Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington policy Pulse, the Balance of
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  Speaker 2: Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior
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  Speaker 2: policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares
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  Speaker 2: his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital.
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  Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from
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  Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's
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  Speaker 2: Nathan Dean.
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  Speaker 1: Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the Washington Policy Post. My
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  Speaker 1: name is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior policy analyst a
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence here in Washington, DCO. Though, if you're watching
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  Speaker 1: us on the zoom, you know I'm just playing around
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  Speaker 1: with our background. We are using the pantry out of
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  Speaker 1: seven thirty one Lexington, which I highly recommend if you
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  Speaker 1: ever go to New York take as much of that
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  Speaker 1: candies as you can see back onto the train or
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  Speaker 1: back to your office. That's what it's there for. Today
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  Speaker 1: is August tenth. It's ten two a m. We are
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  Speaker 1: on August recess. The Senate is out till September fourteenth.
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  Speaker 1: The House is out until August thirty first, and so
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  Speaker 1: for the next twenty one days. It should be pretty
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  Speaker 1: easy to get into a restaurant around town or if
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  Speaker 1: on the commute side, So I'm not going to see
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  Speaker 1: a lot of things happening. But again, I just wanted
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  Speaker 1: to take you through what happened at the tail end
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  Speaker 1: of that last week and really talk about what does
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  Speaker 1: it mean for September. And let's talk about the first
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  Speaker 1: thing that I think is the most important. So I
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  Speaker 1: want to balance power on Friday afternoon, and I said,
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  Speaker 1: the most important thing that the Majority leaders Senator John
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  Speaker 1: Thune could do is to get this continuing Resolution for
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  Speaker 1: the government funding off of his plate. So the Senate
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  Speaker 1: has a deal that it would extend the government funding
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  Speaker 1: from September thirtieth to December eleventh, so it puts it
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  Speaker 1: after the mid terms, the short kick of the can
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  Speaker 1: and it passed overwhelmingly bipartisan. Now, there are a couple
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  Speaker 1: of things in here that the White House may not like.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, there is a provision in there that would
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  Speaker 1: prevent political appointees from improving grants. But this remember this
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  Speaker 1: only runs through December eleventh, So I'm going to update
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  Speaker 1: my note later this week. I was at a thirty
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  Speaker 1: percent chance of a shutdown before I'm at a thirty
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  Speaker 1: percent chance of a shutdown. Now, I just don't think
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  Speaker 1: a shutdown is going to happen, but there could be
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  Speaker 1: some fireworks when we get back in September. Because what
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  Speaker 1: this deal does is it essentially changes it from a
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  Speaker 1: Democratic versus a Republican fight and now it's a White
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  Speaker 1: House versus the Senate versus the House fight. Because the
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  Speaker 1: Senate has done their job. They'll say, yep, we've shipped
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  Speaker 1: it off to the House. Now it's the House is concerned.
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  Speaker 1: If the White House has any issues with it, or
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  Speaker 1: if Speaker Johnson, you know, has an issue with it, well,
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  Speaker 1: then next thing you know, you have a Senate versus
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  Speaker 1: House discussion. And that's not something that people want right
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  Speaker 1: before the midterm election. So I think ultimately they kicked
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  Speaker 1: the can on that. Now embedded that though, was instructions
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  Speaker 1: to kick other things that have this September thirtieth expiration
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  Speaker 1: date until December eleventh, things like the Farm Bill and
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  Speaker 1: things like the Highway Bill. Now let's talk about the
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  Speaker 1: Farm Bill first. So this is not all that exciting
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  Speaker 1: if you are looking at this from a commodity's perspective.
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  Speaker 1: Just remember, you know, there's a we have farm made
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  Speaker 1: in Reconciliation three point zero, and there's some other things
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  Speaker 1: to keep in mind there. But in the Farm bill
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  Speaker 1: in particular, the Senate Agricultural Committee tried to have a
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  Speaker 1: markup last week and it actually failed. The markup I
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  Speaker 1: was a little surprised on this. Senator Tuboyville of Alabama
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  Speaker 1: didn't show up. Senator Mitch McConnell was trying to vote
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  Speaker 1: via proxy from Kentucky. But ultimately the markup failed. And
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  Speaker 1: the reason why it failed is because of snap benefits.
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  Speaker 1: So if you remember, going back to the one big
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  Speaker 1: Beautiful Bill in twenty twenty five, a tremendous amount of
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  Speaker 1: both administrative and benefit costs. Those are the two costs
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  Speaker 1: to keep in mind, so the benefit cost of actually
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  Speaker 1: paying out the nutrition assistance program formerly known as food stamps,
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  Speaker 1: and then the administrative cost. So those two costs were
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  Speaker 1: transferred from the federal government to the states. Now not
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  Speaker 1: in its entirety, but it depends over time, etc. Now,
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  Speaker 1: the Democrats obviously were not pleased with this, and they
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  Speaker 1: have taken the position that they are not going to
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  Speaker 1: support any form of farm bill until that is changed.
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  Speaker 1: Now there are some Republican senators who are somewhat okay
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  Speaker 1: with the idea of aaving off the benefit cost but
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  Speaker 1: not the administrative cost, and that's where things broke down,
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  Speaker 1: and the Democrats just said, no, thanks, I'm not going
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  Speaker 1: to do it. So this is now getting put back
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  Speaker 1: into the government resolution through December eleventh. You know, ultimately,
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  Speaker 1: will they come up with a deal, yes, but will
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  Speaker 1: that deal really be all that exciting? Probably not. You know,
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  Speaker 1: in fact, there is some discussion if they can't get
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  Speaker 1: some of this stuff done, they'll throw it in part
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  Speaker 1: of the Farm Provision of Reconciliation three point zero, which
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  Speaker 1: again I don't think is going to pass. But we'll
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  Speaker 1: see more hiccups on the Farm bill when we get back.
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  Speaker 1: Same similar story on the highway bill. This is a
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  Speaker 1: five hundred and eighty billion dollar infrastructure package. This is
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  Speaker 1: because the Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act, the IIJA of twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty one expires in twenty twenty six, which is crazy
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  Speaker 1: because I feel like I just worked on that yesterday.
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  Speaker 1: But this is a five hundred and eighty billion dollar
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  Speaker 1: package that goes to roads, bridges, highways, et cetera. So
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  Speaker 1: think of vulcan CIH, Marietta, et cetera. Those you know,
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  Speaker 1: those companies that actually deal in cement. Now, where the
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  Speaker 1: highway bill is actually falling apart is a little bit
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  Speaker 1: on EV tax expenses. So you know, obviously highways in
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  Speaker 1: the United States there is this federal gas tax, which
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  Speaker 1: then goes and fills up the coffers of the highway
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  Speaker 1: authorization program. But there's a question of what to do
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  Speaker 1: with electric vehicles. You know, obviously they don't pay the
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  Speaker 1: gas tax, So there is an electric vehicle tax. It's
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  Speaker 1: about eighty dollars to one hundred and thirty dollars depending
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  Speaker 1: if you're a hybrid or if you're full EV per annual,
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  Speaker 1: you know, per annum. It actually shouldn't really impact EV
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  Speaker 1: makers all that much. I remember asking our EV's analyst
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  Speaker 1: if he had any concerns over this, and he said, no,
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  Speaker 1: I don't have any concerns over this. But there are
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  Speaker 1: enough concerns here that some of the Democrats are saying, eh,
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  Speaker 1: maybe we should take a little bit more time to
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  Speaker 1: figure this out than try and pass something at the
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  Speaker 1: last second. And so that's the status of the highway bell.
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  Speaker 1: So they'll come back in September, they'll work on it.
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  Speaker 1: They'll either work on it in September or they'll come
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  Speaker 1: back after the lame dug. But I do think that
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  Speaker 1: is so if you're looking at that type of you know, expenditures,
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  Speaker 1: and you're looking at it from an infrastructure perspective, I
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  Speaker 1: do think somewhere around the five hundred and eighty billion dollar,
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  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit lower, maybe a little bit higher,
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  Speaker 1: somewhere will get approved. Now on Reconciliation three point zero,
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  Speaker 1: last week, the Senate failed to advance this. You know,
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  Speaker 1: this was key to get it done before the midterms,
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  Speaker 1: and Senator Thune just didn't have the votes. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: he tried to warn the White House multiple times, said
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  Speaker 1: you don't have the votes. But you have senators like
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  Speaker 1: Mike Lee of Utah out there saying, look, we got
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  Speaker 1: to have a vote on this yea or and A.
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  Speaker 1: Let's do it right now. Ultimately they didn't have a vote. Now,
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  Speaker 1: the problem with the Reconciliation three point zero is we've
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  Speaker 1: talked about on their calls before, is a the price
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  Speaker 1: tag is around ninety five billion. Bulk of that is
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  Speaker 1: for the Department of Defense. There's about twelve billion dollars
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  Speaker 1: worth of farmand there's about ten billion dollars worth of
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  Speaker 1: implementing the Save America Act as form of grants. You know,
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  Speaker 1: there's no offsetting measures here. So if you're a fiscal
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  Speaker 1: hawk and you're like, look, I don't want to increase
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  Speaker 1: the deficit, not going to support it, you also are
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  Speaker 1: not going to support it if you're a senator who
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  Speaker 1: is exposed to the election. Think of Susan Collins in Maine,
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  Speaker 1: because if you go forward with this, then you have
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  Speaker 1: what's known as a vote rama, and the Democrats can
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  Speaker 1: offer amendments on anything they like and there has to
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  Speaker 1: be a vote, and they could put some sticky senators
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  Speaker 1: in some very sticky situations with their votes. That's not
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  Speaker 1: something you want to do before the elections. There's also
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  Speaker 1: thing of like, well, look, there's only about you know,
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  Speaker 1: seventy five billion dollars worth of money in here for
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  Speaker 1: the Department of Defense. You have some senators saying, look,
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  Speaker 1: we should go three hundred and fifty billion, We should
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  Speaker 1: go as high as we can to get this done
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  Speaker 1: because appropriations isn't going as well. So you get the
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  Speaker 1: idea here is that there's just all these different viewpoints
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  Speaker 1: and so if reconciliation three point zero happens, and right
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  Speaker 1: now I'm at a forty percent chance. But I do
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  Speaker 1: say the caveat is is that there is a tendency
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  Speaker 1: that this could be a lot of Republicans are talking
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  Speaker 1: about this as a lame duck bill because if the
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  Speaker 1: Democrats take the House of Representatives in November, this would
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  Speaker 1: be the last thing a Congress can do for President
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  Speaker 1: Trump while he is president. So there is this potential
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  Speaker 1: that it could grow into a lame duck bill. But again,
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  Speaker 1: you know, we'll have to see. But right now I'm
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  Speaker 1: at a forty percent. The last couple of things to
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  Speaker 1: talk about is National Defense author Is Act. This is
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  Speaker 1: if you're in the defense space. Obviously, we just talked
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  Speaker 1: about seventy five billion dollars worth of expenditures for the
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  Speaker 1: defense industry in terms of counter drome technology, anti missiles,
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  Speaker 1: et cetera. But then obviously you care about the National
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  Speaker 1: Defense Authorization Act because that is the bread and butter
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  Speaker 1: for the entire defense industry. I think eventually it'll get resolved.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think there's really much of an issue here,
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  Speaker 1: but there is one issue in terms of a center
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  Speaker 1: provision of the NDAA that we are telling folks to
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  Speaker 1: be careful about. There's actually two things. The first is
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  Speaker 1: there is a provision in there that essentially says that
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  Speaker 1: if you contract with the Department of Defense, you need
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  Speaker 1: to get Department of Defense authorization to offer dividends or buybacks.
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  Speaker 1: And the way I'm reading this language is that if
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  Speaker 1: you are Bank of America and you have an ATM
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  Speaker 1: on an army base somewhere, you're covered by this. Or
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: if you're Sudexo and you have you know you service
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  Speaker 1: you sell ketchups to you know, ketchup packets to an
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  Speaker 1: army base in North Dakota, you're covered by this. And
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  Speaker 1: so I wouldn't be surprised if you see this come
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  Speaker 1: up as we get closer to the NDAA getting some
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  Speaker 1: serious debate here, because the way I read this bill,
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  Speaker 1: I think there's some serious issues here because any company
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  Speaker 1: that actually does anything with the Department offense would fall
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  Speaker 1: under this. So again, keep in mind of that provision
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  Speaker 1: as we get closer. The other thing with the NDAA
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  Speaker 1: is is that the NDAA is probably the one last
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  Speaker 1: remaining thing for Senator Marshall and Senator Durbin to try
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  Speaker 1: and attach their Credit Card Competition Act. Remember, this is
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  Speaker 1: the bill that if you've flown through LaGuardia or Newark,
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  Speaker 1: you've seen the adverts. This bill is going to kill
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  Speaker 1: your credit card reward programs. They tried to attach it
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  Speaker 1: to the NDA last year. Senator Thune said, no, you
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  Speaker 1: can't do it. I wouldn't be surprised because Senator Durbin
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  Speaker 1: is retiring at the end of this term. Senator Marshall
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  Speaker 1: is actually in a very tough race at the moment.
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  Speaker 1: You think that he's not and most likely a win,
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  Speaker 1: but he's still in a tough race at the moment.
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  Speaker 1: Sator and President Trump even just said last week on
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  Speaker 1: True Social that he still supports the Credit Card Competition Act.
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  Speaker 1: Wouldn't be surprised if Senator Marshall said, hey, let's go
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  Speaker 1: ahead and try and attach this. Ultimately, that became a
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  Speaker 1: decision or John Thune, whether he agrees or not. And
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  Speaker 1: because he's from South Dakota. South Dakota very important to
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  Speaker 1: the credit card industry, industry, I think Senator Thune says no, no, no, no,
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  Speaker 1: We've got too many other things going on at the moment.
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  Speaker 1: You can't have that amendment. So again, keep in mind. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: so could two other things that happened last week. One
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  Speaker 1: Congress passed the Russian Sanctions Bill. This is the Lindsey
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  Speaker 1: Graham Act of twenty twenty six. Now we talked about
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  Speaker 1: this bill probably, I want to say, the end of
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  Speaker 1: last year, and it just festered. He didn't really do anything.
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  Speaker 1: But because the Senate is actually not past the spill,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: it's going to go to the House. I actually think
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the House is going to pass it fairly easily. What
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: this bill does is it allows President Trump a tool,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: not a requirement, but a tool to be able to
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  Speaker 1: levy tariffs on countries both Russia up to a five
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  Speaker 1: hundred percent tariff level and countries that purchase the top
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: five countries that purchase Russian oil to one hundred percent level.
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  Speaker 1: So this is India, China, Turkey, Brazil, and a little
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  Speaker 1: bit of the European Union if you were to take
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  Speaker 1: the European Union in its entirety. So if I'm looking
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  Speaker 1: at tariffs on China, for example, if I'm looking at
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  Speaker 1: tariffs on India for example, that obviously has a significant
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: impact both the retail technology, take your pick. So we're
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: telling clients like, look, this is just a tool. This
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: is not a this is not like a requirement. But
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: this puts us back into the situation where you could
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: see a true social posts come out at three o'clock
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: in the morning Eastern Time, where President Trump says, I
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: don't like something bad is happening here. So therefore, you know,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: these tariffs could be coming out the next couple of days,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: only for him to either walk it back or change,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Just keep that in mind. If this bill passes,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: then it just becomes another tool for tariffs. So again,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: there's no real risk right now, but headline risk, volatility risk,
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  Speaker 1: that certainly is an issue going ahead. The last couple
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: of things Clarity Act, well, Clarity Act didn't pass. I
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: owe a bunch of people, come a bunch of coffees.
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  Speaker 1: The general thought right now is the Culture vote is
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  Speaker 1: scheduled for September fifteenth. This is the initial vote. Remember,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: this is the vote to essentially be able to get
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: to another vote that is scheduled for September fifteenth as
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  Speaker 1: of right now. Senator Thune filed Culture at like four
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  Speaker 1: twenty seven am on Saturday morning and said, okay, here
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  Speaker 1: we go. You know, my view has always been is
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: that it needed to get done by the August recess. Now,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: some of the more optimistic Republicans out there will tell
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: you that the lame duck passage is certainly feasible. But
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you know, they've been negotiating this for a long time.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: There's still hold ups on ethics, language. The White House
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: never agreed to what the Democrats have been pushing. You know,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: there are now some bank friendly Republicans who are now
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: getting back into the stable coin yield argument. So we'll see.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have a more in depth thinking of
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: this later this week early next week. But again, you know,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: time's going to be tight in September. I mean, there's
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  Speaker 1: only fourteen days for Congress to really work on it,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: and when you have to do all the other things
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  Speaker 1: that I just mentioned, September is going to be pretty
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: tight for the clarity. Just a couple other things real quick,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: For those of you who are in the fintech banking world,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: open banking Proposal is rumored to be or reported to
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: be not rumored. Bloomberg News is reported off of this.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: The CFPB Open Banking Proposal is now at the White
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: House Sports Review, which means the CFPB which is no
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: longer under acting Director Russ Vote. They have a new
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: acting director before Brian Johnson gets his confirmation in them,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: but that means that the CFPB could issue its proposal
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: fairly soon. This is the one where the old Open
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Banking proposal prohibited banks from charging fintech fees to access data.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Now that looks like if there are going to be
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: able to charge fees, maybe associated with the number of
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: data pools that come from the third party platforms to
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: the banks. But you know, if you're in the fintech world,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: this is certainly of interest to you, so we'll keep
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: an eye on that. Bloomberg News had a really great
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: piece this today talking about the SEC quarterly reporting. Remember
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: how President Trump has directed the SEC through its proposal
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: to go to a semi annual reporting review. They had
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: an excellent piece this morning. I actually, funny enough, updated
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: my piece for the same day. We didn't plan that,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: but both are the b ipiece and the bnpiece went
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: on on the same day. But we're just telling clients
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: as look, we're getting closer to the end of this cycle,
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  Speaker 1: meaning the SEC is getting closer to finalization, and I
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: still believe at a seventy percent chance the SEC is
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  Speaker 1: going to say, look, you can go to semi annual reporting,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: and you know BN reported, Eli Lilly is already saying,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: look we're going to do that. Now they're most likely
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: going to have you know, sales figures updates and so
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: forth on the other quarterly basis, similar to what you
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: see in Europe. But it wouldn't be surprised if you
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: see a lot of these companies start going to semi annual.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: So again, just keep that in mind. And then finally,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: we didn't see any action on the College Sports Nail
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Bill that would actually you know, create a federal framework
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: for the paying of college athletes. My colleague Andrew Silverman's
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: going to actually have a series of notes going out
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: later this week talking about what that impact is for broadcasters,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: tax preparers, lawyers, consultants, university endowments, et cetera. And so
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: stay tuned on that. That bill does have somewhat bipartisans support. Look,
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  Speaker 1: you see in the Big ten have signed off on it,
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  Speaker 1: and when the SEC in the Big ten has signed
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  Speaker 1: off on it, you pretty much got most of most
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: of Congress. Apologies to anybody who's out there from the
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: you know, acc et cetera, or the Big East. But
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: you know, when the SEC and Big ten sign off
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  Speaker 1: on it, you pretty much have your sign off on it.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: But you know, if you're interested in that, Andrew's going
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to have his reports out later this week. So every
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: week I say that it's not going to be a
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: long call, and then I take forever. So I apologize
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: on that, but I don't see any questions. So I'm
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: going to say, have a wonderful Monday, have a wonderful week.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: If you are around this week and you want to
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: just chat more, let me know, please ib me on
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: the terminal, and we were always happy to answer your
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: questions and have a wonderful week.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: For more from BI or to join this call live
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: each week, you can email Nathan at Ndan at Bloomberg
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: dot net. That's n d e a n at Bloomberg
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: dot net. Come back to the podcast later today for
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: the latest edition of Balance of Power.