Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Super Bowl Sneak Preview plus Listener Questions

Transcript

Super Bowl Sneak Preview plus Listener Questions · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Newman. I am going to be joined
0:17
Speaker 1: by professional better Simon Hunter. And guess what, people, guess what?
0:24
Speaker 1: We made it seventeen weeks of a regular season, three
0:27
Speaker 1: weeks of the playoffs. We are headed to the Super Bowl,
0:32
Speaker 1: and we are bringing all of our companions with us. Simon,
0:40
Speaker 1: my bestie might BFF. I want you to tell me, honestly,
0:45
Speaker 1: tell me how this has been the most rewarding season
0:50
Speaker 1: of your life because of your experience on this podcast. Uh,
0:56
Speaker 1: that's tough. That's tough to say. It's number one in
0:58
Speaker 1: my life. I'm no, no, no, no, no no. Note
1:02
Speaker 1: a year ago, at this time, literally a year ago,
1:04
Speaker 1: this time, you and I and Darren Revel we had
1:09
Speaker 1: recorded a podcast previewing the super Bowl or was it? Yeah,
1:14
Speaker 1: it was the super Bowl. And then we went to dinner.
1:17
Speaker 1: Then like the three of us went to dinner, we
1:20
Speaker 1: went to that great, great restaurant in the city. It
1:23
Speaker 1: was amazing. Then you went out with your friends. I
1:26
Speaker 1: went to bed. It was a great night. It was
1:29
Speaker 1: a great night. Was the first time that we had
1:31
Speaker 1: ever met face to face. It's fantastic. Night. I look
1:34
Speaker 1: at us, We're like capadres. We've been through the wars together. Yeah, man,
1:41
Speaker 1: we we Uh that's another crazy Part two is that,
1:45
Speaker 1: um it just worked out that I did come up
1:47
Speaker 1: because literally a month later the whole country got shut down,
1:50
Speaker 1: so it was like, thank god we actually didn't got together.
1:54
Speaker 1: But uh, yeah, that that was a I I said
1:59
Speaker 1: at the beginning to the playoff, I'm I'm obviously not
2:01
Speaker 1: as great in the playoffs just because it's tougher with
2:02
Speaker 1: the model. When it's a two games, there's only two
2:05
Speaker 1: games going or three games, you're not gonna find as
2:07
Speaker 1: much value as you would in sixteen games. But the
2:09
Speaker 1: regular season, just coming into the year when you told me,
2:13
Speaker 1: because a little behind the curtain here, Chad didn't really
2:15
Speaker 1: tell me the whole darn thing was gonna happen, Like
2:17
Speaker 1: Darren was leaving. I thought it was gonna be the
2:19
Speaker 1: three of us. I didn't know it's gonna be mean
2:21
Speaker 1: you're doing a show because it was you and Scooch.
2:23
Speaker 1: I mean, you and Scooch did this show for so
2:24
Speaker 1: long and you were like, hey, man, um, I think
2:29
Speaker 1: you can do the whole show with me. Would you
2:31
Speaker 1: want to do that and basically you you took a
2:34
Speaker 1: risk and it worked out. Where I come into the year,
2:37
Speaker 1: I really told you earlier on in the year, I
2:38
Speaker 1: was so terrified of the COVID season because I really
2:41
Speaker 1: didn't know how then how affected all the numbers would
2:44
Speaker 1: be with there being no fans. And apparently it didn't
2:48
Speaker 1: really matter when you go back and look at all
2:51
Speaker 1: the data and there's maybe a couple of games that
2:53
Speaker 1: stand out where it's like, yeah, these quarterbacks that they
2:57
Speaker 1: change everything at the line, they never had to deal
2:59
Speaker 1: with any and a crowd noise that that obviously is
3:01
Speaker 1: a big deal for veteran quarterbacks. But overall, we just
3:04
Speaker 1: saw a season where the pretty much the numbers are
3:08
Speaker 1: pretty normals. It was a big year for the dogs.
3:10
Speaker 1: But I think that has more to do with the
3:11
Speaker 1: legalization of sports betting, like the public just betting up
3:15
Speaker 1: these dogs more so, I just think that was a
3:17
Speaker 1: little bit different this year where we're just seeing it
3:20
Speaker 1: more states they're legalizing it, which means each state will
3:24
Speaker 1: have different numbers and you can find different value going
3:26
Speaker 1: against different state boarders. So season, buddy, but I still
3:33
Speaker 1: we joke all the time. I can't believe we actually
3:35
Speaker 1: got fucking amazing. I gotta say I didn't hear anything
3:39
Speaker 1: you said after you after you credited me with taking
3:43
Speaker 1: a risk on Simon Hunter. That's what I do. That's
3:47
Speaker 1: my gift. You know what. I recognized talent. I put
3:51
Speaker 1: him in a position to succeed. I create an environment
3:54
Speaker 1: where everybody can create their best work. It's what I do.
3:58
Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm like a super for GM I should
4:01
Speaker 1: be in the like the Pro Football Hall of Fame
4:04
Speaker 1: for GM NG football contact. That's what I should do.
4:08
Speaker 1: I think it was when you had me on with
4:09
Speaker 1: you and Rabel last season, I somehow got you guys
4:11
Speaker 1: a fifty eight percent. You were like, this is the
4:13
Speaker 1: best I've ever done. I think this guy might be
4:15
Speaker 1: kind of good. No, you know, well, hey that did help.
4:18
Speaker 1: We did do better in the contest than ever before.
4:20
Speaker 1: But actually it wasn't. And credit to Matt Mitchell on
4:22
Speaker 1: this too, because um, we had talked a lot about
4:26
Speaker 1: it during the off season. You like got better and
4:30
Speaker 1: better on the podcast, just during the off season when
4:32
Speaker 1: it was just the two of us. So then it
4:34
Speaker 1: was clear we didn't need Darren around anymore. And so
4:36
Speaker 1: then Darren, Darren was like Oh my god, I can't
4:38
Speaker 1: believe you fired me from the podcast. Um. And then
4:41
Speaker 1: Scooch texted me and was like, dude, I kind of
4:44
Speaker 1: can't do it anymore. You know, I'm not like I
4:46
Speaker 1: got a job, like that's a bigger executive job, and
4:48
Speaker 1: I'm not in the book day to day and like
4:51
Speaker 1: I'm not connected to it. And then I said to
4:53
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, I'm like, what do you think can we
4:56
Speaker 1: just go with Simon? He's like, let's just go with Simon.
4:59
Speaker 1: I think he can do it. Was great. And then
5:01
Speaker 1: I said, do you think we should have Darren on two?
5:02
Speaker 1: And Matt Mitchell was like, no, definitely not. Do not
5:06
Speaker 1: have Darren on And that's what happened. I love Darren
5:10
Speaker 1: just because he admitted that he knew nothing about sports betting,
5:13
Speaker 1: but then he would talk as if he knew exactly
5:15
Speaker 1: what he was talking about, like certain picks, like I
5:18
Speaker 1: would tell my like a certain team. He goes, well,
5:20
Speaker 1: that's just stupid, and it's like, all right, thank you, David.
5:23
Speaker 1: So I didn't miss that. It was just comical. Book.
5:28
Speaker 1: We improved this year, just me and the two of us. Well, listen,
5:31
Speaker 1: we all have our gifts Darren is talking when he
5:33
Speaker 1: knows nothing. Uh, mine is recognized talent. That's you know,
5:37
Speaker 1: yours just picking games. By the way, you did say like,
5:41
Speaker 1: it's amazing that we got through the season. Kudos to
5:43
Speaker 1: the NFL, right like they got us through an entire
5:45
Speaker 1: freaking season. Major League Baseball canceled games, the NBA is
5:49
Speaker 1: canceled games, College football canceled games, College basketball canceled games.
5:53
Speaker 1: The NFL did not cancel any games. And I gotta
5:55
Speaker 1: tell you, I don't know. I don't know if this
5:57
Speaker 1: is a testament to the pro to the testing, proto calls,
6:01
Speaker 1: or like the fact the league maybe truly doesn't care
6:04
Speaker 1: about the players. Candidly, I don't care. I just love football.
6:08
Speaker 1: I want to do is watch football. Our business. The
6:11
Speaker 1: Action Network needs football. Thank you to the NFL for
6:15
Speaker 1: doing what you've done and getting it to the freaking
6:17
Speaker 1: super Bowl. It's just it's just amazing. Crazy. And we
6:22
Speaker 1: we talked and I don't know if it was April,
6:24
Speaker 1: but me when Darren came on, and Darren was classic
6:28
Speaker 1: Darren when he had he was just like we were
6:30
Speaker 1: all in shock about what was happening in the country.
6:31
Speaker 1: And he goes, there's no chance there's gonna be football,
6:33
Speaker 1: Like I just can't see it happening. And my my
6:36
Speaker 1: whole reasoning was, why wouldn't there be football? These these owners,
6:41
Speaker 1: they don't care like they say they're going to change
6:44
Speaker 1: all the rules and make it safer. We might have
6:46
Speaker 1: saw about ten hits to the head in that Green
6:49
Speaker 1: Bay Bucks game. It's one of those where they want
6:53
Speaker 1: to make it safer, but at the same time, the
6:55
Speaker 1: owners want the guys to play in, the players, they
6:57
Speaker 1: want their money. You're only in a short window of
6:59
Speaker 1: your life. So my whole theory was that the NFL
7:01
Speaker 1: was just gonna do it. Is there just a forever
7:03
Speaker 1: next man up league, Like paid many retires, it's irrelevant,
7:07
Speaker 1: there's gonna be another Patrick Mahomes coming into the league.
7:10
Speaker 1: It's just always next man up. So we saw this
7:12
Speaker 1: year it might have been like ten games total that
7:14
Speaker 1: were really affected by it, where we had weird like
7:17
Speaker 1: we had short weeks, we had teams moved from one
7:19
Speaker 1: week to a different week, lost their bye week, different
7:21
Speaker 1: things like that. But exactly what you said, just I
7:25
Speaker 1: never thought it was gonna work with one bye week.
7:26
Speaker 1: I thought they needed to buy weeks and somehow they
7:29
Speaker 1: just pushed along and they got a full season and
7:31
Speaker 1: the exact amount of time they had it scheduled for it.
7:33
Speaker 1: So definitely kudos the NFL. Yeah, I really thought we'd
7:36
Speaker 1: have the Super I thought we'd get through a full season,
7:38
Speaker 1: but I thought the Super Bowl would be sometime in
7:40
Speaker 1: late February, early in March. That that was sort of
7:42
Speaker 1: that That's what I believed. But look, we got through it.
7:46
Speaker 1: You and I. You came in the podcast every week.
7:49
Speaker 1: We made some great picks and the Draft Kings Pro
7:51
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest, we pocketed it some money. You
7:54
Speaker 1: can follow Simon in the app. You can see how
7:56
Speaker 1: well we did UM and we're still making bets and that,
8:02
Speaker 1: my friends, has been the problem because, as you said, Simon,
8:07
Speaker 1: the playoffs have just been ugly and this week I
8:11
Speaker 1: think ticket to a new low. Uh. We'll break down
8:14
Speaker 1: in more detail how we did UM in a few minutes.
8:18
Speaker 1: We're also going to talk opening super Bowl lines. Um.
8:22
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk. We're gonna answer a bunch of questions
8:25
Speaker 1: listeners have sent in questions, which I love. We're gonna
8:28
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about hedging. Simon. You've probably got
8:31
Speaker 1: a Tampa Bay future you've got to talk about. Um.
8:35
Speaker 1: And one more thing, we are going to bring back
8:37
Speaker 1: the phrase to pay his contest. We're gonna give a
8:39
Speaker 1: lucky listener a hundred dollars for every game we win
8:42
Speaker 1: each week. Uh, and we're gonna give an equal amount
8:46
Speaker 1: to the charity of that winner's choice. But here's the twist.
8:49
Speaker 1: You got to participate because this is big simon you
8:53
Speaker 1: and I. Uh we went winless last week. Um, that
8:58
Speaker 1: was no bueno. So uh, I believe what do we have? Wait?
9:02
Speaker 1: Did we go winless? Did we have the over on
9:04
Speaker 1: the Packers? No, we had the Packers minus two and
9:07
Speaker 1: a half. We had the under on Chiefs Bills and
9:10
Speaker 1: we had the Bills plus three. So we went winless
9:13
Speaker 1: last week. And there are no games this week. So
9:15
Speaker 1: here's what we're gonna do. We're rolling it all together. Okay,
9:20
Speaker 1: you got to participate. The winner of this week's prize,
9:23
Speaker 1: the winner of the of the comment that we choose
9:26
Speaker 1: that we will announce on next week's podcast. That person
9:29
Speaker 1: is getting five dollars. That's it, don't need to win anything.
9:33
Speaker 1: Automatic five dollars for the winner, Automatic five dollars for
9:37
Speaker 1: the winner's charity of choice. That's what we're doing for
9:41
Speaker 1: next week. We're rolling it over big, big prize in
9:43
Speaker 1: honor of a big super Bowl week. So here's how
9:45
Speaker 1: you're gonna do it. Go follow the Favorites Pod on Twitter.
9:50
Speaker 1: At the Favorites Pod on Twitter, tag us using the
9:54
Speaker 1: phrase Simon says we care. Just tag us using that
9:59
Speaker 1: phrase Simon's as we care. Matt Mitchell will sift through
10:02
Speaker 1: the submissions randomly choose it. You will win the money,
10:06
Speaker 1: no questions asked. You don't. We don't need to win
10:08
Speaker 1: anything for you to win something. Just go win that money.
10:10
Speaker 1: Go get that money. Everything we're discussing is in the
10:14
Speaker 1: Action Network cap It's free, it's award winning. Go get it. Uh,
10:17
Speaker 1: the lines are moving on this super Bowl already. Let's
10:20
Speaker 1: do an instant reacts on this sign in right now.
10:24
Speaker 1: Um as I said, we were on three. Is there
10:27
Speaker 1: any by the way before we get to that anything, Like,
10:31
Speaker 1: we want to recap from last week that went wrong everything.
10:37
Speaker 1: It was our first winless week of the season two,
10:39
Speaker 1: which is unbelievable, pretty surprising. I'll be honest, I'm shocked.
10:43
Speaker 1: You didn't have an over five week in the contest.
10:45
Speaker 1: So now we always win if we did bad two
10:47
Speaker 1: for three or one for four. But that was my
10:50
Speaker 1: other gift is knowing when it was time to take
10:52
Speaker 1: the buye because those buys, I think we went three
10:55
Speaker 1: and seven, three and seven, yeah, ye um, bad weekend.
11:02
Speaker 1: I'm trying to think exactly how much up the look.
11:04
Speaker 1: But with these futures, take nice profit off a small investment,
11:11
Speaker 1: and unfortunately, unfortunate this year, it did not work out
11:14
Speaker 1: that way for me. Where I got super lucky. We
11:17
Speaker 1: already talked about. I did a futures bet on the Buccaneers,
11:21
Speaker 1: and I hedged with green Bay, and I had futures
11:24
Speaker 1: bet with green Bay, and I had the futures bet
11:25
Speaker 1: with the Bills. So the dream is just two of
11:28
Speaker 1: that make the Super Bowl, and you're good like that
11:30
Speaker 1: much because you already have both teams that are big
11:32
Speaker 1: plus numbers and you can mess around totals to do
11:34
Speaker 1: props and stuff like that. But unfortunately, the Chiefs they
11:38
Speaker 1: came to play, and if you love watching game film,
11:40
Speaker 1: that the Chief's offense, the motions they were doing, all
11:44
Speaker 1: the things, it was just all clicking and the O
11:47
Speaker 1: seeing the the coach. I mean, Andy ay Ree, we've
11:50
Speaker 1: know how long he's been at it now. They just
11:52
Speaker 1: seemed like they're in full control, where once again they
11:55
Speaker 1: were down nine nothing to the Bills. I was feeling great,
11:57
Speaker 1: I'm sure Matt Mitchell having the time of his life,
12:00
Speaker 1: feeling kind of good, feeling like maybe this is really
12:02
Speaker 1: our time, and it just it was one of those
12:06
Speaker 1: games where it was just truly Mahomes is just incredible,
12:10
Speaker 1: Like he had three or four different times where they
12:12
Speaker 1: had him, they had him sacked, and he was able
12:15
Speaker 1: to spin away from it and we were totally at
12:18
Speaker 1: turf toe. We've seen plenty of these news outlets saying
12:20
Speaker 1: he had turf dough and either he's gotten create incredible
12:24
Speaker 1: medicine going on, or he doesn't really have turf though,
12:26
Speaker 1: because there's no way he was moving like he was
12:28
Speaker 1: with a turf though. So yeah, we'll get into that one.
12:31
Speaker 1: The Green Bay one that was that was just a
12:34
Speaker 1: bad read by me where I should have trusted my system,
12:37
Speaker 1: I should have just taken emotions out of it, where
12:40
Speaker 1: I just thought it was just his time. It was
12:42
Speaker 1: Rogers time, and this damn old man Tom Brady, he
12:48
Speaker 1: just won't leave. I remember like thinking three or four
12:50
Speaker 1: years ago, like he'll win a Super Bowl, He'll just
12:52
Speaker 1: retire finally and it will be the end of it,
12:54
Speaker 1: and this guy will not leave. So my favorite stat
12:58
Speaker 1: has to be that he has the same amount of
13:01
Speaker 1: NFC championships is Aaron Rodgers and he's only played one
13:04
Speaker 1: season in the end of in the NFC. So it
13:08
Speaker 1: was one of those where everyone knew. I mean most
13:10
Speaker 1: people knew a minute in when he just drove the
13:12
Speaker 1: field and through all the through the touchdown, You're like,
13:14
Speaker 1: oh my god, Brady, Why why did I bet against Brady?
13:18
Speaker 1: And I said on Twitter at the end of the
13:20
Speaker 1: end of that first half when he got that touchdown.
13:23
Speaker 1: In the playoffs, just every point is so critical. You knew,
13:27
Speaker 1: You just knew everyone kind of the back of their mind,
13:29
Speaker 1: like how they're gonna come back from this. You had
13:31
Speaker 1: a little hope with Rogers and maybe they'llment them with shift,
13:34
Speaker 1: but it's just free. You just gave free seven points
13:37
Speaker 1: in a in a playoff game against Tom Brady. It
13:39
Speaker 1: was just one of those where everything that could have
13:41
Speaker 1: gone wrong pretty much did for Green Bay. And we
13:44
Speaker 1: saw it. We'll talk about the Chiefs and books. We
13:46
Speaker 1: saw the Buccaneers defense, those three and outs, they had man, Wow,
13:49
Speaker 1: that was pretty incredible after those back to back turnovers
13:52
Speaker 1: three and outs, So that that hurt. I probably lost
13:56
Speaker 1: somewhere around like thirty thousand this weekend, and it's brutal,
14:00
Speaker 1: but compared to I've been the regular season doesn't hurt
14:03
Speaker 1: as bad as if I had just gone Owen sixteen
14:05
Speaker 1: or whatever in my best in the regular seas. And
14:07
Speaker 1: but for futures. I was trying to talk talk about
14:11
Speaker 1: how you want to put a small amount and get
14:13
Speaker 1: a lot back, and I got myself in a position
14:15
Speaker 1: now where I might end up having probably a hundred
14:18
Speaker 1: and ten thousand dollars out there just to make like thousand,
14:22
Speaker 1: just to like make sure I make my money back,
14:24
Speaker 1: and then some just because I had putting so much
14:26
Speaker 1: into other teams and the Buccaneers, I've literally bet them
14:31
Speaker 1: like four times in February and March, and then I
14:35
Speaker 1: never bet him again. I should have before the playoffs started,
14:37
Speaker 1: because I thought to myself it was gonna be a
14:39
Speaker 1: walkie here, like we're due for a five seed or something,
14:41
Speaker 1: because it's just been one in two seeds for a
14:43
Speaker 1: while now, and here we are a five seed verse,
14:46
Speaker 1: so one seed the goat versus the baby Gitch. Pretty crazy, man,
14:50
Speaker 1: we made it this far. It is crazy. I got
14:52
Speaker 1: a couple of observations, and I do want to dig
14:54
Speaker 1: a little bit deeper on sort of your your hedging
14:57
Speaker 1: and how much you have out there just to win
14:58
Speaker 1: a little bit more to cover yourself. My favorite thing
15:02
Speaker 1: about that game. You know, there was so much written
15:05
Speaker 1: after the game about Brady having a crappy game and
15:08
Speaker 1: three interceptions, and my take on that is he made
15:13
Speaker 1: two brilliant decisions and that's it, And like, that's honestly,
15:17
Speaker 1: he made two brilliant decisions and Aaron Rodgers made one
15:20
Speaker 1: bad decision and that's the difference in the game. Tom Brady,
15:24
Speaker 1: the last player the first half, makes a great read
15:27
Speaker 1: and throws a perfect ball to Scottie Miller and that's
15:30
Speaker 1: a touchdown, and like with eight seconds left, and it's
15:32
Speaker 1: the perfect play called at the perfect time, and it
15:34
Speaker 1: was his doing. And the number of quarterbacks who are brilliant,
15:38
Speaker 1: who have had great careers who not only don't recognize
15:41
Speaker 1: the play and then executed as well as he did
15:44
Speaker 1: is so long. That list is so long. But the
15:47
Speaker 1: number of people who are as good as Tom Brady
15:49
Speaker 1: is nil. Because of things like that, no matter how
15:52
Speaker 1: many interceptions he throws in the second half, that's number one.
15:55
Speaker 1: Number two, there was a play they were driving for
15:57
Speaker 1: a field goal there, you know, it was the forty
16:00
Speaker 1: six year field goal for the year field goal that
16:02
Speaker 1: there were the final points for them. It was third
16:04
Speaker 1: and six. He drops back immediately he sees he's he's
16:07
Speaker 1: like not going to get complete the pass, throws it
16:09
Speaker 1: down to the dirt immediately. That's a great play that
16:13
Speaker 1: those two plays alone, those are the two plays that
16:16
Speaker 1: that's the ten points that were the difference in the game.
16:19
Speaker 1: That's it. That's all I need. I don't need. I
16:21
Speaker 1: don't give a shit about three interceptions. I don't give
16:23
Speaker 1: a shit about if you look pedestrian. All I need
16:26
Speaker 1: is Tom Brady making the exact plays that he needs
16:28
Speaker 1: to make when they need to be made. Yeah, And
16:30
Speaker 1: those two two of those picks were punk picks where
16:33
Speaker 1: it's like he's just doing and if he turns it over,
16:36
Speaker 1: he's like, who cares, it's a punt anyway. So exactly
16:39
Speaker 1: what you're saying, he was just smart where he never
16:41
Speaker 1: turned it over on his side of the field. It
16:42
Speaker 1: was always on Green Bay side. And everything you said
16:45
Speaker 1: was so true. It was It's one of those where
16:48
Speaker 1: that you talked about everyone just loved Green Bay and
16:50
Speaker 1: it just felt like everyone was on that moment that
16:53
Speaker 1: it was just it was too good to be true.
16:55
Speaker 1: Is Roger's moment at home? Finally he was gonna get
16:57
Speaker 1: over the hump. They get to another super Bowl after whatever,
17:00
Speaker 1: it's been ten years, and we're gonna we'll get into
17:03
Speaker 1: it in the off season and talk about the future
17:05
Speaker 1: and select that for Aaron Rodgers, man, he'll he'll go
17:08
Speaker 1: down as one of the more disappointing NFL careers, Like
17:10
Speaker 1: I remember for a quarterback where we just have we
17:13
Speaker 1: remember all this talent. You can't argue with people about
17:16
Speaker 1: what they say the man's one and four and NFC
17:19
Speaker 1: championship games. So yeah, as as an Aaron Rodgers fan boy,
17:24
Speaker 1: that was a tough game for me. Man. Yeah, we
17:26
Speaker 1: made a classic mistake. It's it's weird, you know, when
17:29
Speaker 1: we first did this podcast, we love the value on
17:32
Speaker 1: the box, and we like we made the same mistake
17:36
Speaker 1: that we made all year. We talked ourselves out of it.
17:39
Speaker 1: We just like we really did, like we love the
17:42
Speaker 1: value on the bucks. But then the line got the
17:47
Speaker 1: three and we decided like it was a ballsier thing.
17:50
Speaker 1: It was our big balls better the week to bet
17:51
Speaker 1: on Green Bay. And we we thought too much about
17:56
Speaker 1: that half point, and like that's what we did all
17:59
Speaker 1: year long and it totally bit us in the s definitely.
18:03
Speaker 1: But all that matters is the upcoming week though, right buddy,
18:05
Speaker 1: If we just win the big game, all is for
18:08
Speaker 1: God and we go in the off season, off on
18:10
Speaker 1: our horses, just laughing together, catching our wins from the
18:13
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. So riding into the sunset. The other thing
18:16
Speaker 1: I love from the game. Two quick things and then
18:18
Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit about the game.
18:20
Speaker 1: I love Tom Brady at the end when he walks
18:22
Speaker 1: over to the stands and asked the security guard if
18:24
Speaker 1: his son can come down and say hello? How don't
18:27
Speaker 1: if he saw that, But like, here's a guy trotting
18:29
Speaker 1: off the field going to his tent super Bowl. Greatest
18:32
Speaker 1: quarterback of all time, couldn't have been more polite, like
18:35
Speaker 1: to the security guard in the yellow jacket who's there
18:38
Speaker 1: to protect everybody, and like he gets it. And instead
18:41
Speaker 1: of being like, hey let my son pass, he was
18:43
Speaker 1: just like, hey, can I say hello to my son.
18:45
Speaker 1: I just thought that was classy and I was totally
18:47
Speaker 1: taken with it. The other thing, I want Andy Reid
18:50
Speaker 1: to win as many Super Bowls as possible because I
18:52
Speaker 1: believe he is a better football genius than Bill Belichick
18:55
Speaker 1: and he deserves to be recognized as such. That doesn't
18:58
Speaker 1: make any sense, but the first one I was with
19:01
Speaker 1: a bunch of buddies watching the game, and it cracked
19:03
Speaker 1: me up. No matter what you're doing life, you can
19:05
Speaker 1: beat Tom Brady, the greatest ever, and you're gonna have never,
19:08
Speaker 1: never ending haters. My buddy as soon as he walks
19:10
Speaker 1: up and goes, of course, he wants to give his
19:12
Speaker 1: kid a kiss him of mouth. Tom is such a creep.
19:14
Speaker 1: I'm just like, that's where your head goes, and it's like,
19:16
Speaker 1: good moment you go right to the negative. Seriously, No, Andy,
19:20
Speaker 1: Andy Reid is an Eagles fan. I'm with you, man.
19:23
Speaker 1: He was a great coach, But you cannot tell me
19:27
Speaker 1: like I've watched more games than you could ever imagine
19:30
Speaker 1: Andy Reid as an Eagles fan. This guy could not
19:33
Speaker 1: coach the final two minutes. You would always melt and
19:36
Speaker 1: fall apart, and the pressure always got too big for him.
19:38
Speaker 1: And he got a gift from the gods. He earned it.
19:41
Speaker 1: But Patrick Mahomes, I mean that man can cover up
19:43
Speaker 1: any weakness to coach has so he is a brilliant man.
19:46
Speaker 1: Like that. They showed it a bunch of times. The
19:48
Speaker 1: inside shuffle thing he does, like the pitch they do,
19:51
Speaker 1: the like the linebacker, I mean the full back where
19:54
Speaker 1: they do to Travis Kelsey. It's just it's the perfect
19:57
Speaker 1: storm where like we'll talk about a especially next week
20:00
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs, like what we're seeing right now with history.
20:03
Speaker 1: But the fact Andy Reid got Mahomes, Kelsey and Tyree
20:07
Speaker 1: Hill and he loves to just do crazy schemes with
20:10
Speaker 1: the offense. It's it's seriously like a dream come true.
20:13
Speaker 1: Is like a football fan because he is. He's a
20:15
Speaker 1: perfect coach to have with them offensively, he's brilliant. Alright,
20:18
Speaker 1: So what do we think? This game opened at three
20:20
Speaker 1: and a half. Total is fifty seven and a half,
20:23
Speaker 1: highest total in Super Bowl history. Previous high was Patriots falcons.
20:27
Speaker 1: You know a few years ago. This is the highest
20:29
Speaker 1: total in history. Uh, both numbers have moved down. It's
20:32
Speaker 1: been bent down to Chiefs minus three. The total is
20:35
Speaker 1: now fifty six and a half. What did you think
20:38
Speaker 1: when you first saw it? What did you bet Chad,
20:42
Speaker 1: I'm sitting here. You'd even comment on my scarf, which
20:44
Speaker 1: was kind of heartbreaking. Either didn't I noticed your scarf?
20:47
Speaker 1: I I like, I think your scarf is beautiful, but
20:49
Speaker 1: you know it's an audio thing. I didn't think like people.
20:52
Speaker 1: You know they not everyone can see you. But if
20:54
Speaker 1: you want to talk about the beautiful scarf that you've
20:56
Speaker 1: dripped around your neck, I'm happy to hear it. I
20:59
Speaker 1: am you uncold transwine. I'm going to talk about the scarf. Ah.
21:04
Speaker 1: This scarf right here is from my hometown in England.
21:07
Speaker 1: So this is my home club, Burnley Burnley. And you
21:10
Speaker 1: might have heard of Burnley because they just upset Liverpool.
21:13
Speaker 1: And if you had bet on Burnley this week, it's
21:15
Speaker 1: plus a thousand, three DFT. So just like done, believe them,
21:19
Speaker 1: Burnley the underdog. No one believes in us right now, child,
21:22
Speaker 1: we're underdogs here. That's why I'm wearing the scarf to
21:24
Speaker 1: remind you we are underdogs. No one believes in us,
21:28
Speaker 1: and just like no one believes in the Buccaneers, first
21:32
Speaker 1: instinct was chiefs. This is gonna be easy went for
21:34
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Tom Brady's cooked. Everything went right in that
21:37
Speaker 1: Green Bay game once again for Brady, just like Drew
21:40
Speaker 1: Brees turned it over a bunch, Aaron Rodgers turned it
21:42
Speaker 1: over a bunch. And then I dove into the numbers,
21:45
Speaker 1: and it's it's so true what everyone is saying about
21:49
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. Their d line right now is cooking. And
21:52
Speaker 1: you watched that game. I think they had five sacks
21:54
Speaker 1: in that game. And we know about Shack. Shack is
21:59
Speaker 1: one of the best the ends in the league. He
22:01
Speaker 1: had the most sacks last year. And Jason Pierre Paul,
22:05
Speaker 1: he's playing to have his mind right now. So when
22:08
Speaker 1: I broke down this game on my initial instinct was
22:11
Speaker 1: just to take the Chiefs in the over. And then
22:12
Speaker 1: when I went through the numbers, I had this game
22:14
Speaker 1: with thirty one to thirty with the Chiefs, So I
22:18
Speaker 1: think I'm getting a good number, especially when it's at
22:20
Speaker 1: three and a half of the Buccaneers. But I just
22:22
Speaker 1: love the Bucks and the value there where they feel
22:26
Speaker 1: like the smart side where the public's gonna I don't
22:28
Speaker 1: know what the numbers are, you have it in front
22:29
Speaker 1: of you, but the public's gonna come and heavy on
22:31
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and as a pro, it's it is rare
22:35
Speaker 1: for me to take the favorites in the Super Bowl,
22:37
Speaker 1: unless it was Tom Brady and the Patriots. But Tom
22:41
Speaker 1: Brady is an underdog. I'm sure the Action Averquort throw
22:43
Speaker 1: something out there. He has to be there, two and
22:45
Speaker 1: o or three. I was an underdog in the Super Bowl.
22:46
Speaker 1: He's one of these guys that when you doubt him,
22:50
Speaker 1: that's when he covers. And I think you guys did
22:52
Speaker 1: put a thing if he was seven and oh against
22:53
Speaker 1: the spread in the playoffs when he was an underdog
22:56
Speaker 1: and the money was going against him. And once again
22:58
Speaker 1: we're another spot here where all the money is going
23:00
Speaker 1: to go on against him and he's gonna be an underdog.
23:02
Speaker 1: So I love the bucks at this number. Action Network
23:06
Speaker 1: right now has this UH projected at Tampa plus two.
23:12
Speaker 1: So you're still getting value on UH Tampa at plus
23:16
Speaker 1: three of the bets and percent of the money of
23:22
Speaker 1: the money coming in on Kansas City right now. Still
23:27
Speaker 1: still so early, right, so so early. UM. And when
23:30
Speaker 1: we did when we did the I feel a little
23:34
Speaker 1: bit like like Steve CORNACKI like you gotta count all
23:38
Speaker 1: the bets, all the bets are gonna come in. We
23:40
Speaker 1: gotta count them all. One of people's sexiest men alive.
23:43
Speaker 1: I feel like, you know, that's something to aspire to.
23:47
Speaker 1: When we did the Action Network Instant Reaction Show on
23:51
Speaker 1: Sunday Night, we had two guys, Shawn Corner and Chris
23:55
Speaker 1: Raybond who immediately loved the Bucks, one guy Matthew Friedman
23:58
Speaker 1: who loved the Chiefs, and one guy, stuff Ucky, who
24:00
Speaker 1: was abstaining. He sort of had it lined at exactly
24:03
Speaker 1: what this number was. So you're on the bus. You
24:06
Speaker 1: love this game at you loved it at three and
24:08
Speaker 1: a half. You made a pretty sizable wager. Stucky. I
24:11
Speaker 1: bet you're real fun at parties, be Stuck. He couldn't
24:16
Speaker 1: be more fun at parties like Stucky. Like a drunk
24:21
Speaker 1: Stucky loves everybody. Drunk Stucky is the first one buying drinks.
24:26
Speaker 1: Drunk Stucky is the first front throwing his arm around.
24:28
Speaker 1: You're telling you know how much he appreciate you, how
24:30
Speaker 1: much he loves you, what a great job you're doing there.
24:33
Speaker 1: Drunk Stucky is the best Stucky. Those are the people
24:36
Speaker 1: I see the most pain in their eyes. Uh, for
24:39
Speaker 1: this one, I'm with them. That'd be like them. My
24:42
Speaker 1: early gut though, was the other I was on the
24:44
Speaker 1: Chiefs just because I just thought Brady is he's just
24:47
Speaker 1: so lucky. He is incredible, but the things that go
24:50
Speaker 1: his way, why is always like a referee is on
24:52
Speaker 1: Tom brady side. And then of the game. So I
24:56
Speaker 1: were in a rare spot here, Chad, we actually have
24:58
Speaker 1: a home dog in the super Bowl. They're actually a
25:01
Speaker 1: real home dog in the super Bowl the first time.
25:03
Speaker 1: What it might be the only time I'll ever said
25:05
Speaker 1: in our lifetime. Who knows if a team will ever
25:08
Speaker 1: hosts another super Bowl, but it is. We'll break it
25:12
Speaker 1: down obviously more next week. But if you still have
25:16
Speaker 1: the three and a half out there, yeah, take it
25:18
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable. But I'd say it all the time.
25:20
Speaker 1: The spread is dead. The spread for the most part
25:22
Speaker 1: is dead, especially in the playoffs where it usually lands
25:25
Speaker 1: on wonky numbers. Everyone's done the squares. Sometimes you win
25:29
Speaker 1: at the end, like in the super Bowl, you'll have
25:30
Speaker 1: like a five and you'll just be like, I don't
25:32
Speaker 1: even know how I I won in my square, but
25:34
Speaker 1: I wont because it's somehow it's on a five. So
25:36
Speaker 1: I wouldn't care too much about the spread. It's one
25:38
Speaker 1: of those I'm just gonna take the money line, but
25:40
Speaker 1: obviously I'll bet the spread and do teasers and everything
25:43
Speaker 1: like that, but it's one of those where I wouldn't
25:47
Speaker 1: get too harped about it. Um, we'll see, we'll see
25:50
Speaker 1: someone put it out there. But basically, a team that
25:53
Speaker 1: wins covers like of the time. So if even if
25:58
Speaker 1: you take the Buccaneers, you're already only have a one
26:01
Speaker 1: in five chance of covering that number if they lose.
26:03
Speaker 1: So it's just one of those where I just feel,
26:05
Speaker 1: if you're gonna go in on the Buccaneers, just do
26:06
Speaker 1: the money line. Do the money line and the Buccaneers. Okay? Um.
26:11
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the total total open fifty seven and
26:14
Speaker 1: a half now it's been bent down, Yeah, and I
26:17
Speaker 1: was I knew the sharp is gonna come in on
26:19
Speaker 1: the under, but I thought so much public money was
26:21
Speaker 1: gonna come in that it was gonna keep going up.
26:23
Speaker 1: So I was happy to see that my system had
26:26
Speaker 1: it at a sixty one, that that's what it thinks
26:28
Speaker 1: the game will be at. Um, but my gut, I
26:32
Speaker 1: thought this would be like I really thought they would
26:34
Speaker 1: hang sixty with these two offenses. That again, we'll break
26:38
Speaker 1: it down next week. But my favorite thing to do
26:41
Speaker 1: is bet the under in the first quarter, in the
26:43
Speaker 1: under first half, and then bet the prop that there
26:46
Speaker 1: will be more points in the second half, because it
26:48
Speaker 1: just always comes out where there's just jitters. Even Tom Brady,
26:50
Speaker 1: you can go through his days with the Patriots, man,
26:54
Speaker 1: I can't tell you how many times they just did
26:55
Speaker 1: not do anything. Uh. I think that Rams game was
26:58
Speaker 1: what three nothing in the first half, and I know
27:02
Speaker 1: the Eagles one was crazy. But if you go through
27:04
Speaker 1: most of their games, like the Atlantic game, I think
27:06
Speaker 1: they were down twenty one three in the first half
27:08
Speaker 1: the Patriots, So it's one of those where you go
27:10
Speaker 1: through it seems like for some reason Brady always starts slow.
27:13
Speaker 1: And we saw with the Chiefs last week they were
27:17
Speaker 1: down nine nothing and they put up fourteen points really quick.
27:21
Speaker 1: But they're not one of these teams now that they're
27:23
Speaker 1: just they're all I am. I am on the train
27:26
Speaker 1: that it's gonna be high scoring game. Like I said,
27:28
Speaker 1: I'm taking the over. But I just think it is
27:30
Speaker 1: the way you look at it long term. If you
27:32
Speaker 1: make this bet, you're gonna make a profit for that
27:34
Speaker 1: Your life if you just take more points second half,
27:36
Speaker 1: because it's just proven that these offenses they make adjustments
27:39
Speaker 1: with that half an hour they have in between, and
27:42
Speaker 1: they just come out firing in the offense in the
27:44
Speaker 1: second half. So I love the over and I do
27:46
Speaker 1: love the under first half. All right, So you're your
27:51
Speaker 1: best friend. Stucky with the pain in his eyes also
27:54
Speaker 1: has a great theory about had a great stat in
27:57
Speaker 1: the Action Network NFL podcast. We're that the Lab fifty
28:01
Speaker 1: combined conference championship games and Super Bowls, Like, the number
28:05
Speaker 1: of times the total points scored in the first quarter
28:08
Speaker 1: has been over ten is like seven times. Uh. You
28:12
Speaker 1: so you live bet then it, then it ends up
28:15
Speaker 1: going over, but you live bet the over once the
28:17
Speaker 1: game has started. Um. So we got a couple of questions,
28:20
Speaker 1: and you've raised two things that I think that are
28:23
Speaker 1: are relevant to these questions. Uh, we have a hedge
28:26
Speaker 1: question and we have a live betting question. So let
28:28
Speaker 1: me start with the hedge question and then we'll get
28:30
Speaker 1: to the live betting question, which connects to what you
28:32
Speaker 1: just said. Um. Earlier in the show, you said, you
28:36
Speaker 1: know you've got a ton of Tampa futures, and now
28:38
Speaker 1: you've got about a hundred and ten grands sort of
28:40
Speaker 1: in play in order to win grand explain to people
28:44
Speaker 1: like what you're hedging and what your strategy and philosophy
28:47
Speaker 1: has been. Sure, so it's pretty simple, honestly. Um, I'll
28:54
Speaker 1: use us for example, So we were gonna do the
28:56
Speaker 1: bills right the four thousand, two uh four thousand, two
28:59
Speaker 1: hundred to win, so we I would have let it
29:05
Speaker 1: ride that first game with the Colts because like, you
29:07
Speaker 1: don't want to hedge that first one, so we escaped
29:10
Speaker 1: that game. We have the next game where they're playing
29:13
Speaker 1: the Ravens. You're in a spot now where you either
29:16
Speaker 1: put one third, which means for us, we would have
29:18
Speaker 1: put ten k to win ten k, like, so we'd
29:21
Speaker 1: make a whatever six thousand dollars or you can let
29:24
Speaker 1: it ride, and if you did hedge it the next game,
29:27
Speaker 1: I mean, you only have two thirds of that original
29:29
Speaker 1: bet we have left because we obviously lost that ten
29:31
Speaker 1: k by taking the Ravens of the first one. So
29:35
Speaker 1: for me, the reason I have so much money out
29:37
Speaker 1: there right now is that I've I've been hedging. So
29:41
Speaker 1: say originallyd total I had um like coming into the season,
29:46
Speaker 1: say I had like twenty grand out there on future
29:49
Speaker 1: bets because I like just doing like a thousand on
29:50
Speaker 1: each one. It's easier to track. UM. My biggest one
29:56
Speaker 1: might have been Pittsburgh, where I might have put like
29:58
Speaker 1: four or five thousand on them for the Super Bowl,
30:02
Speaker 1: which would have been like a crazy pat I would
30:04
Speaker 1: have paid like two cat or something crazy like that. UM.
30:08
Speaker 1: Basically like I'm doing future bets throughout the year. So
30:11
Speaker 1: I took the Bills later on, we talked about that.
30:13
Speaker 1: Then I took the Green Bay when we're in the
30:15
Speaker 1: playoffs to win the NFC UM, So it pretty much
30:19
Speaker 1: worked out that I already pretty much had give or
30:22
Speaker 1: take about six d k out there on my hedging,
30:27
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna I was at a point then that
30:31
Speaker 1: I'm neither like, say, the the Green Bay had one
30:34
Speaker 1: that would have been fine with me. I would have
30:36
Speaker 1: been good for the year out it made a nice
30:37
Speaker 1: little profit, and they'd they'd be going against the Chiefs
30:41
Speaker 1: and I would just hedge on the Chiefs, where with
30:43
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, I had them at such crazy odds that
30:46
Speaker 1: if I had just not been hedging against them, like
30:49
Speaker 1: I shouldn't have hedge against him. With Green Bay, but
30:51
Speaker 1: I just I messed up. I didn't believe in Brady,
30:53
Speaker 1: which is like every everyone's everyone has had that mell
30:56
Speaker 1: on in their life where you don't believe again Brady,
30:58
Speaker 1: and he just puts it to you again. He's like,
31:00
Speaker 1: I'm the greatest ever. This is why you always believe
31:02
Speaker 1: in me. But I'm in a spot now where I
31:04
Speaker 1: had to put just about I'm like up to like
31:08
Speaker 1: thirty thousand. I might do a little more in the
31:10
Speaker 1: chiefs Um money line just to pretty much make a
31:13
Speaker 1: profit back because just say it does happen when the
31:17
Speaker 1: Buccaneers do win. I just want to be in a
31:19
Speaker 1: spot no matter what, I'll make thousand, like. I don't
31:21
Speaker 1: want to do all this work and make nothing, because
31:24
Speaker 1: I gotta tell your time. I like to invest money.
31:26
Speaker 1: I think about if I just put this in the Tesla,
31:28
Speaker 1: I would have about five times my money right now
31:30
Speaker 1: at the same time. So it's one of those where
31:32
Speaker 1: it's like I'm taking a little loss in my time
31:34
Speaker 1: because it's so much work and money to make. I'm
31:37
Speaker 1: not gonna say it's a little amount of money. That's
31:39
Speaker 1: a lot of money, but not as much as I hope.
31:41
Speaker 1: Coming to the year we're like last year when you
31:43
Speaker 1: had me on, I rode the Chiefs all through the
31:45
Speaker 1: playoffs and the Super Bowl. That's like that was those
31:48
Speaker 1: are the dream years where I had the Chiefs that
31:49
Speaker 1: tend to one because of my home is being hurt
31:51
Speaker 1: last year and it was one of those where I
31:54
Speaker 1: I know it's the luck a little bit, but at
31:56
Speaker 1: the same time, it's like if you get one of
31:57
Speaker 1: those every three to four years, you're good. Like these
32:01
Speaker 1: ones don't hurt is bad because it's like, yeah, I
32:02
Speaker 1: had it down here this year, but I'm still making
32:04
Speaker 1: a profit. But hedging, Hedging is hard. It's it's all
32:08
Speaker 1: about what you believe in, Like if you really if
32:10
Speaker 1: I really believe in the Buccaneers, right, I don't hedge.
32:12
Speaker 1: I let it ride because I'm having a crazy value
32:15
Speaker 1: right now. But once again, I do this for a living.
32:18
Speaker 1: I need that money to do stuff with, so I'm
32:21
Speaker 1: gonna hedge. Well. I also like that you're thoughtful about
32:26
Speaker 1: it and it's not a gamble, like you're doing things
32:31
Speaker 1: in order to maximize a profit, not just say I'm
32:35
Speaker 1: going to walk away with you know, six figures and
32:39
Speaker 1: I'm going to be so close, like you're going to
32:42
Speaker 1: be an adult and you're gonna put money in your pocket.
32:44
Speaker 1: I always say wise guys are wise guys because they
32:46
Speaker 1: know how to keep money in their pocket, not because
32:48
Speaker 1: like they're better gamblers than everybody else. On every single day,
32:52
Speaker 1: it's all money management. Like the same thing about me
32:54
Speaker 1: pulling our money off before the playoffs Huven started. It's
32:57
Speaker 1: just one of those where I know what I'm good
32:59
Speaker 1: at when I'm not, and I don't want to hurt
33:01
Speaker 1: the fans feelings. But I literally put a Twitter poll
33:03
Speaker 1: out there for people to vote on their favorite bets
33:05
Speaker 1: for this weekend, and I did a parley of the
33:08
Speaker 1: Bucks money line with the Chiefs just because our fans
33:12
Speaker 1: voted for the Bills in Green Bay, just for fun,
33:15
Speaker 1: and that would end up being the only real bet
33:16
Speaker 1: I won this weekend. So that's one of those where
33:19
Speaker 1: it's like I'll just make a random bet like that
33:22
Speaker 1: right now and then. But for the most part, I'm
33:24
Speaker 1: pretty stunned, where it's like I believe in the Green Bay,
33:27
Speaker 1: agreed in the Bills, but like I didn't Chase, I
33:29
Speaker 1: didn't bet them at halftime. I didn't I didn't bet
33:32
Speaker 1: big on the Bills when they were up doing nothing.
33:34
Speaker 1: It's just like one of those where if I win, great,
33:37
Speaker 1: If I lost, I lost, I like never I never
33:39
Speaker 1: have the feeling of chasing, because it's just like we're
33:42
Speaker 1: talking right now. We're onto the super Bowl now where
33:44
Speaker 1: I think I have a good read, I think I
33:45
Speaker 1: have a good line. I'm hoping to get back the
33:47
Speaker 1: money I lost anyway, So it's one of those you
33:49
Speaker 1: just keep going on to the next week. So here's
33:51
Speaker 1: the hetch question from a listener named Chris Moradian. I
33:56
Speaker 1: hope I'm pronouncing that right. Chris, who d M me? Um?
34:00
Speaker 1: You know you're not the only one who gets d
34:02
Speaker 1: MS Simon. I have two hundred and fifty on the box.
34:06
Speaker 1: This is Chris to win the super Bowl at plus.
34:10
Speaker 1: A week ago, I put eight hundred dollars on my
34:13
Speaker 1: homes to win the Super Bowl m v P at plus.
34:18
Speaker 1: Would you hedge anymore? If so, how I am planning
34:22
Speaker 1: on doing a cheap money line, but would love some advice.
34:27
Speaker 1: It's been an awesome season. Thanks for the great content.
34:29
Speaker 1: You're welcome, Chris. Thanks Chris. That's what you do, man.
34:33
Speaker 1: I love the idea of my homes m v P.
34:36
Speaker 1: But we saw it last year with Damian Williams probably
34:39
Speaker 1: could have won the m v P for the chief
34:41
Speaker 1: slast year the running back. He he had a crazy game.
34:43
Speaker 1: He had the touchdown the end of the game pretty much. Um,
34:46
Speaker 1: that sealed it. I would just because I'm I, like
34:50
Speaker 1: I talked on the show the time, I just played
34:52
Speaker 1: safe because I just think the money you're getting back,
34:54
Speaker 1: you're adding to your bank roll if you're not invest
34:56
Speaker 1: in or do anything else with it, which means you
34:58
Speaker 1: have more equity to play with. Ne sure that's guaranteed money,
35:01
Speaker 1: Like you've already in your mind. You should already think
35:03
Speaker 1: yourself you've won because you made that bet at crazy
35:06
Speaker 1: odds and now it's here where no matter what how
35:09
Speaker 1: you look at it, you could be getting. You said,
35:11
Speaker 1: he got one, So it means he's getting the Chiefs
35:14
Speaker 1: that twelve to one if he bets it that way, Like,
35:16
Speaker 1: no matter what, he can get a twelve to one
35:18
Speaker 1: winner right now. So I love the idea because that's
35:22
Speaker 1: great odds with the m v P hedge. Um. But
35:25
Speaker 1: if it was me, I would just try to maximize
35:27
Speaker 1: the value of the bet and I'd play the Chiefs.
35:29
Speaker 1: And if he has the option maybe you can do
35:32
Speaker 1: it live where the Chiefs will get down, say tend
35:35
Speaker 1: nothing to the Buccaneers and he'll be able to get
35:37
Speaker 1: a really good number of the Chiefs. But for me,
35:39
Speaker 1: I don't risk it, especially if I'm betting a lot
35:40
Speaker 1: of money. They don't take a certain amount of size.
35:43
Speaker 1: If you're trying to bet live, I would just have
35:45
Speaker 1: hedge you before and try to just not have a
35:48
Speaker 1: no sweat game, but have a game or you no,
35:50
Speaker 1: no matter what, you're making that profit and then you
35:52
Speaker 1: can do your own little side bets if you're trying
35:54
Speaker 1: to have fun. But like locking that profit. That's my
35:56
Speaker 1: my advice with the hedgie. So you you suggest he
36:00
Speaker 1: said he's gonna put um money on the Chiefs money line. Uh,
36:04
Speaker 1: so that's what you would tell, Like, that's that's what
36:06
Speaker 1: you should say. That's what you would do, just to
36:08
Speaker 1: lock in that profit the moment the money on the
36:10
Speaker 1: homes ends up being sort of a fun side bet. Yeah,
36:14
Speaker 1: and just don't even mess with it, like, don't get
36:16
Speaker 1: weird and trying to do well. I figure, if the
36:18
Speaker 1: Chiefs are gonna win, it's gonna go over fifty points
36:20
Speaker 1: or fifty six points. Try to part later or anything
36:22
Speaker 1: like that. Just do it straight, Just take the stress away,
36:26
Speaker 1: eat the juice, and just bet the number and just
36:29
Speaker 1: get your profits because that's a great number and that
36:30
Speaker 1: was a great bet by you, buddy. Way to go, Chris.
36:33
Speaker 1: Thank you for the question. All right, you mentioned live
36:36
Speaker 1: Um here is a question from Jared in Toledo. I've
36:44
Speaker 1: never bet an NFL game live before, but I've heard
36:48
Speaker 1: it is a great way to get really good spread
36:51
Speaker 1: and total numbers if you don't mind buying low selling
36:54
Speaker 1: high mid game. Do you have any rules of thumb
36:56
Speaker 1: when live betting the NFL generally and if in to
37:00
Speaker 1: watch out for in this Super Bowl specifically. Thank you
37:04
Speaker 1: Jared from Toledo. Uh. My first advice would be don't
37:09
Speaker 1: don't live bet Wow. I know, I know most people
37:13
Speaker 1: love live betting, but to me, live betting it can
37:16
Speaker 1: be It can be bad for the certain type of
37:20
Speaker 1: people that get into it, where if you're a degenerate,
37:22
Speaker 1: you'll just keep hitting hitting numbers. Do you think you
37:24
Speaker 1: have a good read on the game and then all
37:26
Speaker 1: of a sudden your bank roll has gone on one
37:27
Speaker 1: game because you just kept live betting it. So if
37:30
Speaker 1: you're good at money to management. Yeah, man, live betting
37:33
Speaker 1: is the best. Me and Chad talked all year. We
37:35
Speaker 1: would do live bets on these teams that would get
37:37
Speaker 1: down I don't know, two touchdowns or whatever. We take money,
37:40
Speaker 1: we throw a little bit on their money line, you
37:42
Speaker 1: take someone their spread. That stuff's fine. But if you're
37:45
Speaker 1: in a spot where you're kind of chasing and you're
37:47
Speaker 1: just throwing all your bank into one game because you're
37:49
Speaker 1: hitting the live numbers and you think you have a
37:51
Speaker 1: good read, I just I just think it's a trapped
37:53
Speaker 1: people where I just like when I bet the game beforehand,
37:57
Speaker 1: and yeah, I threw I probably threw another grain on
38:02
Speaker 1: Green Bay's moneyline um before the second half, because once
38:06
Speaker 1: they got that touchdown, I was like, all right, like
38:09
Speaker 1: Green Bay is gonna come out good here. And then
38:11
Speaker 1: sure enough they I think they fumbled the very first
38:13
Speaker 1: play the second half in Tampa Bay score again. I
38:16
Speaker 1: was just like, all right, That's why I hate live betting.
38:18
Speaker 1: So it is one of those where it is tough,
38:21
Speaker 1: tough to do, and I recommend against it because for me,
38:24
Speaker 1: it's just it's it's easier to win and lose, not chasing,
38:27
Speaker 1: Like if I lose a game I'm one and oh
38:30
Speaker 1: instead of being four now if I kept live betting
38:32
Speaker 1: the same team. So for me, it's it's one of
38:35
Speaker 1: those where if you're gonna live bet, either live bet
38:38
Speaker 1: you're heading out or live bet on a big odds,
38:41
Speaker 1: or you're you're either getting five to one or four
38:42
Speaker 1: to one where you're getting your money's worth. I like that.
38:46
Speaker 1: I think I agree with both of those things, and
38:48
Speaker 1: a lot of guys I know, uh, that's what they
38:50
Speaker 1: do you. And actually, in the Action Network app, it's
38:52
Speaker 1: really interesting. Um, you can see it happening in real time.
38:56
Speaker 1: And this isn't this isn't a pimph the app, but
38:57
Speaker 1: it is a really great feature of the app. You
39:00
Speaker 1: you get alerts from the people that you follow, right,
39:02
Speaker 1: so you can get if you follow Chris Raybond, if
39:04
Speaker 1: you follow Stucky, you follow Matthew Freeman or Seawan Corner, Raheeman, Palmer, whomever. Um,
39:10
Speaker 1: you'll see what they're betting in advance of the game.
39:13
Speaker 1: And oftentimes I will get alerts like it even happened
39:16
Speaker 1: this weekend. I knew Corner was on I think the
39:20
Speaker 1: total in the Packers Bucks game. He was on the
39:24
Speaker 1: over for the game and then I saw he was
39:26
Speaker 1: live betting like the live under as well. UM, and
39:31
Speaker 1: he I think he was like, you know, is he
39:34
Speaker 1: hedging out? Is he taking advantage as he sees something
39:36
Speaker 1: like you're getting a sense of what some professionals are doing.
39:39
Speaker 1: And that's a real value that, uh, if you're looking
39:42
Speaker 1: to hedge and and things like that, you can see
39:44
Speaker 1: it happening in real time. I saw Chris one seven
39:48
Speaker 1: and oh man that that Bucks Green Bagan. It's a
39:50
Speaker 1: hell of a day. Yeah, Raybond went seven or no
39:53
Speaker 1: in the and it's good for him, good for him.
39:58
Speaker 1: Look hopefull you're doing more than thing. He's doing more
40:00
Speaker 1: than one units because that's like a clean up deck
40:02
Speaker 1: he was doing. Okay, he's really good at this. UM.
40:07
Speaker 1: All right, let's see last question, then we'll go and
40:09
Speaker 1: then we'll go into uh next week Brendan Coopman And
40:13
Speaker 1: this is not about the game, so get ready curious
40:16
Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts if you have any yet. And
40:19
Speaker 1: Chargers at thirty to one to win the Super Bowl.
40:23
Speaker 1: In the post, Anthony lynn Era also is it worth
40:26
Speaker 1: taking a shot in the Jets at one in speculation
40:30
Speaker 1: that they get DeShawn Watson or any other Super Bowl
40:33
Speaker 1: flyers that we're taking at this point, and like, that's
40:36
Speaker 1: what I was gonna talk to you about. We'll probably
40:38
Speaker 1: do a whole show on it, just because right now
40:40
Speaker 1: we have three legit quarterbacks that might be on the
40:44
Speaker 1: move and that's gonna really be crazy. With these futures
40:48
Speaker 1: where already locked in, I would say the only one
40:51
Speaker 1: I've locked in right now is the Panthers, and that's
40:54
Speaker 1: just awful wind that I think I'm out the Look
40:57
Speaker 1: it was either one the fact if they get Watson,
41:01
Speaker 1: I could just see it being one of those where
41:03
Speaker 1: its second year um with rule, that defense is a
41:06
Speaker 1: little bit better and they have all these weapons on
41:08
Speaker 1: offense at one. I'll take that same with the Buccaneers. Like,
41:12
Speaker 1: did I believe in Winston when I made that bet?
41:14
Speaker 1: Not at all, But I was thinking to myself, if
41:16
Speaker 1: a team can make the playoffs at one, that's incredible
41:19
Speaker 1: hedge opportunity. And every year we're gonna be sitting to
41:23
Speaker 1: the spot. We'll talk about it. Like the forty Niners
41:26
Speaker 1: just two years ago, at this exact same date, they're
41:28
Speaker 1: fifty one to make the Super Bowl. We saw him
41:30
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl last year. Against the Chiefs. So
41:33
Speaker 1: it's one of these where there's long shots have been
41:35
Speaker 1: coming through lately, and I know that that Jets one
41:40
Speaker 1: is interesting for sure because they definitely they had the
41:44
Speaker 1: pieces there and maybe they could do stuff in the draft.
41:46
Speaker 1: I'll help that offense get a little better, But I
41:49
Speaker 1: wouldn't do it at a hundred of one, just because
41:53
Speaker 1: it's kind of the the same what I'm feeling here with
41:54
Speaker 1: the Chargers. The Chargers are in the same division as
41:56
Speaker 1: Patrick my homes. I just can't see him getting a
41:59
Speaker 1: one seed and then in any scenario like sure, maybe
42:03
Speaker 1: my homes will go down and all could fall apart,
42:05
Speaker 1: and yeah, you have great, great odds here on the Chargers,
42:08
Speaker 1: but I don't know, it's just tough to tell him
42:10
Speaker 1: to take that bet with my homes in that division.
42:12
Speaker 1: And same with the Jets where Josh Allen we saw
42:16
Speaker 1: him play bad here like that was that was a
42:19
Speaker 1: bad game, but we all know Josh Allen is pretty
42:21
Speaker 1: good quarterback and it seems like he's gonna run that
42:23
Speaker 1: division from now on. So that's another one of those
42:26
Speaker 1: where I would just stay away from it. It's ah,
42:31
Speaker 1: I don't I actually know what I'm really thinking about
42:33
Speaker 1: Watson could end up there because I read a thing
42:36
Speaker 1: a week ago about he did put the Jets on
42:39
Speaker 1: his list of teams he would go to, So that's
42:42
Speaker 1: pretty interesting. But for me, it's just going from such
42:44
Speaker 1: a losing culture one year to the next year. That'd
42:47
Speaker 1: be amazing story if to make the playoffs but win
42:49
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I just can't see that big of
42:51
Speaker 1: a turnaround from such a losing culture there. They don't
42:53
Speaker 1: have their own Shainahan and a head coach. They have
42:56
Speaker 1: someone that we have no idea if he's gonna be
42:58
Speaker 1: a good head coach with the Jets. So I like,
43:00
Speaker 1: I like what they've done there the Jets, and like
43:02
Speaker 1: what they're gonna be building there, but I just don't
43:04
Speaker 1: think they're a super Bowl team next year. We should
43:07
Speaker 1: um and we can talk about this off air, like
43:10
Speaker 1: I forget when you disappear for a month, but we
43:14
Speaker 1: might have to do a immediate Reacts Futures pod the
43:21
Speaker 1: Tuesday after the Super Bowl. Yeah, I'll be good for
43:25
Speaker 1: that because with COVID and everything, that's kind of messed up.
43:27
Speaker 1: Like I usually I would disappear for like three weeks
43:29
Speaker 1: around month UM, but right now, the only thing I'm
43:33
Speaker 1: booked for is going I'm going to Jamaica for a
43:35
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Um, you probably never heard of it.
43:38
Speaker 1: In a grill, Yeah you heard of this cultured. I'm
43:42
Speaker 1: an old person who's like traveled around the world. Like
43:45
Speaker 1: I avoid going in a grill because it's pedestrian. Oh wow, boring?
43:51
Speaker 1: How about that? Uh? Yeah not And I'm gonna live
43:54
Speaker 1: video chat from there and just show how amazing it is.
43:56
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll be around for sure right after the
43:59
Speaker 1: super Bowl, so we'll definitely do something like that. And
44:00
Speaker 1: then I'll tell you, buddy when I get back. Man,
44:03
Speaker 1: I just died right back into football, so we'll do
44:05
Speaker 1: whatever you want. But I'll definitely have time this offseason.
44:09
Speaker 1: All right. Uh, let's get to our our giveaway here.
44:14
Speaker 1: As a reminder, we're doing a phrase of the pace,
44:19
Speaker 1: and because Simon and I went winless last week, our
44:22
Speaker 1: first winless week of the year, we are rolling over
44:25
Speaker 1: the prize and I am guaranteeing guaranteeing the commenter who
44:31
Speaker 1: follows the Favorite Pod the Favorites Pod at the Favorites
44:34
Speaker 1: Pod and tags us using the phrase Simon says, we care,
44:40
Speaker 1: I will give that person five hundred dollars and I
44:44
Speaker 1: will give their favorite charity five hundred dollars. And if
44:47
Speaker 1: you did submit comments this past week, have no fear
44:51
Speaker 1: we have collected them. We will put those into the
44:53
Speaker 1: pile of comments that we will consider for next week.
44:56
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has already sent me a bunch um what
45:01
Speaker 1: we didn't win, and I felt bad giving people nothing
45:04
Speaker 1: for for that, So we're just gonna guarantee a prize
45:07
Speaker 1: for next week. Go to at the Favorites pod tag
45:10
Speaker 1: us using the phrase Simon says, we care. This has
45:14
Speaker 1: been the Favorites. We'll be back next week. We're gonna
45:16
Speaker 1: talk super Bowl props. We're gonna talk any updates on
45:20
Speaker 1: the line. We're gonna talk about what we're ultimately going
45:22
Speaker 1: to think about when it's time to bet the Super Bowl.
45:26
Speaker 1: I am Schad Millman for Simon Hunter. Downloaded at Apple, Podcasts,
45:30
Speaker 1: at Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. For producer extraordinary
45:34
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Until next time, I love you, Yeah,