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Trade Deals = Rate Cuts?✅️Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Trade deals are on the front border, and could this
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: mean rate cuts lining up for us? Today we'll break
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: it down for you. My name is Paul Barret. Welcome
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: back into the show. Let's get into it, and I
• 0:14
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• 0:16
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• 0:18
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• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Check it out coinbase dot com. Now let's go over
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: to the first point, and that is that Trump's trade
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: deals are now starting to flow. You probably heard us
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: talk about this last week after the bill was signed.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: And our theory is is that once the bills signed,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: which it is now, that all these trade deals would
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: be just absolutely starting to speed up, and within thirty
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: days we would see these trade deals be pushed in.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: And remember that the FED meeting is at the end
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: of July, so all of this could play into it
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: very well. President Trump's trade deal with Vietnam US gets
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: total access to their markets trade zero tariffs and Vietnam's
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: pays twenty They pay forty percent on tariffs on trader shipping.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So a couple of key things that are playing into this.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: The other thing that you got to look at is
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Vietnam recently join BRICKS. The one thing I would say
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: is that BRICKS is getting a lot of pressure right now.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: We have not seen both Russia and China attend the
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: last major BRICKS meeting, So is Russia and China starting
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: to lose interest. We'll see maybe India is going to
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: be the one player that will play into this. I
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: want to go to a clip real quick because this
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: will get into how the trade clarity with Vietnam comes
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: to be, and this is a key point, especially around
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the strategy with China.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Take a look, mister secretary, question on behalf of a
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: number of viewers who are in business importing things from
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Vietnam and they want to know the following They say
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: this twenty percent? Is that on top of existing duties?
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: Is it twenty percent overall? What is the actual number?
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Because I think there's a lot of folks who are
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: still confused or are.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: Trying to do planning here and twenty percent overall.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: Twenty percent overall, so there's there's nothing that's not tacked
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: onto something else before that.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: No, this supersedes all the other terriffs. Now you know,
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: there may still be some of the two thirty two
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: tariffs for specific industries, but in terms of generalized it's
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: twenty percent.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: All right, so twenty percent overall.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Deal's done, And now you have a best in breaking
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: down the trade announcements that are happening this week. And
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: this is going to get interesting because this could accelerate
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: very quickly.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: We are going to have several announcements in the next
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: forty eight hours. And Joe, I think what President Trump
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: is concerned about is the quality of the deals, not
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: the quantity. As you could imagine as he started hurting
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: the cats and trying to get everyone across the finish
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: line when he said that there's a chance that countries
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: could boomerang back to their April second reciprocal tariff levels.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: We've had a lot of people change their tune in
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: terms of negotiations. So, uh, my my mailbox was full
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: last night with a lot of new offers, a lot
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: of new proposals. So it's going to be a busy
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: couple of days. But importantly too that President Trump has
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: said that they would the countries would not go back
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: to the reciprocal rate until August first.
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: But what can we expect? What are they are they?
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: Is it ultimatums and presidents where the highway with some
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: of these or are there details on on I don't know,
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: sort of staking out positions and letting these countries know
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: what you know, where they where they have more work
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: to do.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: Now they're they're pretty standard letters, Joe. It's just uh,
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: thank thank you for wanting to trade with the United
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: States of America. We welcome you as a trading partner.
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: And here's the rate unless you want to come back
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: and try to negotiate.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: One, of course, is the imposition of twenty five percent
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: tariffs on Japan and South Korea. Additionally, those letters that
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: are coming in you also they announced the thirty percent
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: tariff on South Africa and a twenty five percent tariff
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: on Malaysia and Kazakhstan. So this is all brewing into
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: a large amount of revenue for the United States. And
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: if you look at the chart right now, tariffs compared
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: to last year three hundred billion versus nearly four times
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: that last year's per point, which was eighty billion as
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: a level prior to these policy ramps. So all of
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: this pointing, is this the beginning of you know, could
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: we get to a trillion dollars in tariffs you know,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: this year? What would it look like overall? One question
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: that really plays into how the markets are going to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: go for is how we're going to deal with China.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So here's an update on that.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: Take a look about a week ago President Trump referred
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: to a potential deal over TikTok in the next two weeks.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: Some people looked at that and said, that's an interesting
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: chess piece. Is part of a larger negotiation with China.
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: What is the timeline at this point with China? Can
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: you give us any sort of sense of how things
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: are going there?
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: Andrew, one of the things that's not my portfolio is TikTok,
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: so I can't speak to that directly. What I can
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: speak to is I'm going to be meeting with my
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: Chinese counterpart sometime in the next couple of weeks. We
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: had good meetings in Geneva in London. We both approached
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: it with great respect to the two largest economies, and
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: I think there are things for us to do together
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: if the Chinese want to do it, So we will
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: discuss whether we are able to move beyond trade into
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: other areas.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, So a couple of points there. First of all,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I want to kind of address the TikTok situation. Is
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: that is unusual that we have not seen some sort
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: of address from President Trump on this. And I don't
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: know what the strategy is going to be if is
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: it's still be held as a card. If you look
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: at the US tariff agreement before a ninety day deadline
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: right now, still very high on poly market at seventy
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: seven percent chance that this is going to happen. So
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: it looks like we could see a true deal start
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: to come together here. And if you look at what
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: CNN was talking about, China sidesteps the question on TikTok
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: after Trump.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Says we're close to the deal.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So again, does this mean that China is trying to
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: still retain control. Is there some sort of angle in
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: which the president is playing for TikTok?
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: This is yet to be determined.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I think until we see a trade deal, we may
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: not see the answer around TikTok other things. Of course,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: you have to look at right now, President Trump threatens
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: additional ten percent tariffs on any country aligning themselves with
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: an anti American brick policy. Now, this is something that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: has been going on for quite some time. Is this
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Trump's way of dismantling bricks? And of course, if you
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: got to look at like I said earlier, both China
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: and Russia showing a little bit of less interest in this.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe India takes the lead on We'll see how it
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: plays out.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: The US pushes.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Vietnam to decouple from Chinese tech. And this is where
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: it gets interesting because if you start to see not
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: only what Vietnam is doing, and then you can compare
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: to what China is angry about around this deal. Remember
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: that Trump's new trade deal with Vietnam lowers the tariffs
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: twenty percent, but also slaps a forty percent tariff on
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Chinese goods rerouted through Vietnam. So the reality is is
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: this was kind of the back door out of China
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: and through Vietnam utilizing lower tariffs.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: All of that changed and off the deck.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So this starts to play into a very interesting strategy
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: that I think starts to push into how does this
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: affect rates.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Here's a clip. Take a look.
• 7:44
  Speaker 6: Trump, I think is sad he wants the rate to
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: brought down to one percent. I don't really see how
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: that's consistent with the growthyfourceas without having a lot of
• 7:53
  Speaker 6: inflation in this economy. So it's really it's very clever
• 7:58
  Speaker 6: in a way. He's going to point the FED chair
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: he won't control them. He's seen that with the Supreme
• 8:03
  Speaker 6: Court justices, and he's trying to paint them into a corner.
• 8:07
  Speaker 6: But I don't know that if he's wrong about the
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: interest rates that they really need to stay somewhat higher,
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: that that's going to prove a good thing for the
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: economy or for President Trump.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: If he doesn't step down, he may not be chairman.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: But if he doesn't give up his seat, what happens.
• 8:23
  Speaker 6: No, that is such a good point. Powell doesn't give
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: up his seat. If Powell doesn't give up his seat
• 8:31
  Speaker 6: and stays on the board and Trump appoints someone who
• 8:36
  Speaker 6: the rest of the board doesn't respect, I think if
• 8:40
  Speaker 6: they respect them, they'll give them a lot of rope.
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: They'll go along with them. But they don't respect them,
• 8:46
  Speaker 6: Powell will be the shadow chair from within the FED,
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: and the FED Chair may not control the board. Again,
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: just a few minutes earlier, Secretary bus And acknowledge that
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: it's not all the FED Chair. You have to persuade
• 8:59
  Speaker 6: the higher Open Market.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Committee, all right, So you can kind of see, guys,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a bit of a struggle.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: The question is, really, can these tariffs get ramped up
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: in time ramped down I should say, in time for
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the FED meeting in late July. If in fact it does,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: we could see maybe a reconsideration by Chair Pale further
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: into what's happening.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: You know, from a strategic standpoint.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Elon of course is out there starting the America Party
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: now embracing bitcoin.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Fiata's hopeless.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So you've got the bitcoin community jumping in on this
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: one in a big way. Whether or not this actually
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: happens is a question mark. Will Elon register the American Party.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Many people are saying it's probably not going to happen
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: until later in the year. Seventy eight percent right now
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: in December, if at all, I think, because this could
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: still play into a negative position. And if you look
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: at what's going on on my poll, who would be.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: Part of this?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: This surprised me a little bit, because this is actually
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: pulling in from MAGA and the Libertarian Party, at least
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: according to those four hundred votes right here of who
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: would jump in. This is an interesting take, I think
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: when you look at the America Party even being a thing,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: and is this all about the midterms, because remember midterms
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: is where all of this starts to shift around, especially
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: with the Democrats pushing very hard right now. One thing
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to consider also is Elon's supporters, and this has been
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: there's been a consistent group of these.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: This is James Fishback.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: This is a guy that kind of announced the Doze
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: rebate idea when Dozo was at its peak, and now
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: he is pretty much at odds with Elon, including what
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: they were talking to do in terms of an ETF
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: supporting Tesla now starting to step away from that. I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: don't care if Elon loses his money, but Tesla is
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: not his, so it belongs to the shareholders. We deserve
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: full time CEO. This is something that Ross Gerber's talked
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: about for a long time. We've had Gerber on the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: show talking about that. I want to go to another
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: clip real quick because this will get into a little
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: bit more detail around what's happening with Elon and Tesla take.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: A look.
• 11:01
  Speaker 7: Understandable because I think a lot of people are saying,
• 11:03
  Speaker 7: what's he doing? Where's he going with this? When he
• 11:06
  Speaker 7: posted on acts saying when it comes to bankrupting our
• 11:10
  Speaker 7: country with waste and graft, we live in a one
• 11:14
  Speaker 7: party system, not a democracy. Is that by itself going
• 11:17
  Speaker 7: to bother a Tesla investor. No, But he wants to
• 11:21
  Speaker 7: form a party, which then raises the question, wait a second,
• 11:24
  Speaker 7: what are you doing with your time and your attention.
• 11:26
  Speaker 7: You're trying to form a political party. It would in
• 11:29
  Speaker 7: theory target two or three Senate seats, eight to ten
• 11:32
  Speaker 7: House seats, and the goal is to have enough leverage
• 11:36
  Speaker 7: that they could steer legislative talks, whether with the Democratic
• 11:39
  Speaker 7: Party or the Republican Party. Not surprisingly, Donald Trump said
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: that Elon Musk is off his rails, is off the
• 11:46
  Speaker 7: rails in terms of his comments. So this is one
• 11:49
  Speaker 7: of those things, guys, where you look at it from
• 11:51
  Speaker 7: a Tesla investor perspective and you sit there and say,
• 11:55
  Speaker 7: what about Tesla?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And I think that's the case. Let me
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: know in the comment, I don't know if you're a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Tesla investor, if you're looking at this in comparison now
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Elon's affecting other markets. But let me know in the
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: comments what you guys think about the American Party, other
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: things that are happening when you look at stable coins.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: You've got the ECB president warning stable coins could trigger
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the privatization of money. This is something that's been talked
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: about for quite some time, and I think they are
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: just a little bit disappointed in the fact that we're
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: starting to see the realization that the eurostable coins are
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: not going to be the power play here. It's still
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: going to be US dollar nominated stable coins globally that's
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: going to take place, and that I think is a
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: big part of it. Other things you got to look
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: at right now, ninety nine point eight percent of stable
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: coin trades in Europe are dollar based, raising concerns over
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: the financial stability, and the ECB of course, is warning
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: this now because of all of that. This to me
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: gets back into the point that we've talked about with
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: stable coins. Once the Genius Act goes through, there is
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: so much opportunity here for the US dollar to actually
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: get exposure around the world, So we could see a
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: lot of countries starting to move to this direction. For sure,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: market's recovery now historic SNP five hundred hit a record
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: fifty five point seven trillion in market cap last week,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: continue to blow off top. The question is is how
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: long does this take and continue? Many people still very
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: bullish on where the market is continuing, and if you
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: look at this right here, retail investors are all in.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: This is a crazy number when you look at retail
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: investors in general, continuing to climb since twenty twenty and
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: staying consistent all the way through twenty twenty five.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: One last point I want.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: To get at, and that of course, is how is
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: this stable coin bill going to get transacted through? Well,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: part of this is coming in from this ways and
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: means a meeting that was originally scheduled for this week.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: They have now said weight a minute sessions, not in sessions, so.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: We're going to reschedule.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: This problem with this is this could move the stable
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: coin bill back unless.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: They try to power it through. Let's hope that is.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: The case, because I think a delay on the stable
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: cooin bill would cause a little bit of market pain overall.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: But the key here is how do these trade deals
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: play out this week? So stay tuned for all that.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: We'll be covering that and much more here on the channel.
• 14:09
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• 14:11
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• 14:14
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• 14:17
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• 14:21
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